####018006040#### FXUS61 KRLX 260733 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 333 AM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A warm front brings scattered showers tonight into Saturday. A warming trend starts today and lasts through Monday. Hot temperatures expected Sunday and Monday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 330 AM Friday... After a frosty start for some valley locations, a warming trend ensues today, as southeast downslope flow develops and increases on the back side of high pressure exiting to the east, and ahead of a warm front approaching from the southwest. This flow increases a bit further tonight, especially on ridge /and not so much in better protected valleys/ as warm advection flow aloft backs to the southwest and increases. This warm advection flow, along with vanishing h85-h7 condensation pressure deficits, spell increasing clouds tonight, with showers becoming possible, especially overnight. Stratus in the southeast flow was reaching southeast edges of the forecast area this morning along southeast facing slopes, and will make slightly better inroads there late tonight. Temperatures will be a bit above normal for highs today and lows tonight, even with a forecast a bit below central guidance. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 230 AM Friday... A warm front is scheduled to slide across the forecast area on Saturday allowing for warmer air to infiltrate the region in its wake. High temperatures in the lower 80s will be common across portions of the lowlands as a result, with 50s, 60s and even some 70s in the mountains. Dew points will be in the 40s and 50s, so it will feel quite comfortable, maybe even on the drier side, as opposed to an oppressive mugginess. Lingering moisture will allow for mostly cloudy skies through the day and there is the chance for a shower or thunderstorm early, particularly across the northern lowlands and the northern mountains. Chances will decrease fairly quickly by afternoon as the warm front pushes off to the north. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 245 AM Friday... Warming trend will continue Sunday and Monday as an azores high offshore from the eastern CONUS will allow for summerlike temperatures, hot temperatures expected Sunday and Monday. Monday looks to be the hottest day with highs in the upper 80s to near 90 across portions of the lowlands, approaching near- record values across portions of the mountains and northern lowlands. This period will also be marked by dry weather thanks to proximity of high pressure. RH percentages look to be drier on both Sunday and Monday afternoons, with in the 30s expected across the lowlands. Winds will be relatively light though, so fire weather concerns remain low. A cold front is still projected to approach from the west sometime late Monday bringing with it a chance for rain and an isolated thunderstorm or two. Chance PoPs will gradually increase from west to east late Monday afternoon into the night, with likely PoPs arriving very early Tuesday morning. && .AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 200 AM Friday... High pressure east of the area continues VFR conditions for much if not all of the TAF period, through 06Z Saturday. There may be afternoon cumulus in the mountains. Low level stratus may once again develop along the spine of the Appalachians overnight, with embedded vsby restrictions, but does not look to impact our eastern terminals Friday morning. After mixing out during the day, the same thing is expected to happen Friday night. This time, MVFR stratocumulus may reach BKW late. High thin cirrus will lower to altocumulus Friday and then high stratocumulus Friday night, with isolated showers, as a warm front approaches from the southwest. Light and variable to calm surface flow overnight will become light southeast Friday, and then strengthen and become gusty Friday night, into the 15-20 kt range. Light southeast flow will develop overnight at BKW and become gusty first thing in the morning, with gusts to around 20 kts on Friday, then up to around 25 kts Friday night. Light south flow aloft will become light to moderate south Friday night. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Brief MVFR CIG restrictions could occur toward dawn at BKW. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE FRI 04/26/24 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H M H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 06Z SATURDAY... Patchy IFR possible along the mountains Friday night into Saturday with low stratus. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for OHZ066-067-075- 076-083>086. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/LTC NEAR TERM...TRM SHORT TERM...LTC LONG TERM...LTC AVIATION...TRM