####018010265#### FXUS61 KPHI 042316 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 616 PM EST Thu Dec 4 2025 .SYNOPSIS... In the wake of an arctic cold front, arctic high pressure will build into our region late tonight into Friday. The high then shifts offshore into Friday night. Low pressure tracks well to our south and southeast Friday afternoon and Friday evening with high pressure arriving for much of the weekend. Another cold front however moves through later Sunday. High pressure returns for Monday and Tuesday, followed by another low pressure system around the middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... For tonight, high pressure quickly moves overhead and lifts out to the northeast. This will result in a relatively tranquil night though with the coldest temperatures of the season so far. Lows will be down in the single digits across the Poconos and NW NJ. Elsewhere, temperatures will be in the mid to upper teens and low 20s. For tomorrow, an area of low pressure moves off the Outer Banks and out to sea. The precipitation shield will clip the southern portion of our area, and with an abundance of cold air in place, a period of snowfall is anticipated. Measurable snowfall is expected from about Wilmington to Atlantic City on southward. Snowfall will be rather light, so impacts should be limited overall. Snow should begin around 4-5 AM across the Eastern Shore and lower Delaware, continuing through the mid to late morning. As the morning goes on, warm marine air will try to infiltrate inland, resulting in a period of mixing, and eventual change to rain near the immediate coast of South Jersey and Delaware. The bulk of the precipitation will fall between that 4-5 AM window and midday. Snowfall amounts did tick up slightly, though currently have amounts below Advisory criteria. Looking at around 1-1.5" across portions of Talbot and Queen Anne's County, with around 0.5-1" across central and southern Delaware and the rest of the Eastern Shore. Lower amounts expected in northern Delaware and South Jersey where amounts up to a half inch are expected. Overall, just a light snow for early December. Cannot rule out flakes around the Philadelphia area up into central Jersey, but no accumulations are expected at this time. Below normal temperatures expected tomorrow with upper 20s/low to mid 30s expected. While the bulk of the precipitation moves out by the early afternoon, some lingering rain and snow showers may persist through the evening and into the overnight hours. As temperatures fall overnight and some showers remain, cannot rule out some patchy freezing drizzle across portions of South Jersey and lower Delmarva as model soundings show a warm nose at around 925 mb with some low- level moisture in place. Temperatures fall into the low to mid 20s. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Not quite as cold but temperatures still below average. An upper-level trough across central into eastern Canada will remain in place through the weekend. Several shortwaves rotating around this feature will result in the trough or closed low meandering around. These shortwaves will also drive some systems our way. An axis of surface high pressure should be across our area to start Saturday, however this then weakens with time. Given that the core of the trough is to our north and northwest, temperatures while still on the chilly/below average side, will not be quite as cold as Friday. Given the presence of plenty of shortwave energy sliding by, at least some cloudiness should prevail. Low-level moisture could be trapped initially Saturday morning, and this may result in more extensive low clouds before some breaks develop. As we go through Sunday, an upper-level trough across much of eastern Canada amplifies southward as stronger shortwave energy rounds its base across the Great Lakes, with another one across the southern states. Some guidance is sharpening the northern part of the trough more due to stronger shortwave energy. This results in a more organized surface feature into our area Sunday night. This scenario would increase the chances for some light snow across especially the northern half of the area, however there is a decent amount of uncertainty with this. The associated front will deliver another shot of reinforcing cold air during Sunday night. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Synoptic Overview...An expansive upper-level trough is forecast to be across eastern Canada Monday which extends across the eastern U.S. This trough may then pivot northward with additional energy sliding southeastward from the Midwest to the Great Lakes Monday night and Tuesday. The entire trough may then reload Wednesday and Thursday into the East as strong shortwave energy amplifies it once again. At the surface, weak low pressure and a cold front crosses our area later Sunday with high pressure sliding across our area later Monday into Tuesday. Low pressure tracks to our north later Tuesday with its cold front shifting to our east. Another low may then arrive late Wednesday into Thursday. For Monday and Tuesday...An upper-level trough across eastern Canada may tend to pivot northward with less cyclonic flow across the East. However, a potentially strong shortwave slides southeastward on the southern side of this trough across the Great Lakes region Monday night into Tuesday, then crosses the Northeast during Tuesday. As the axis of high pressure moves across our area Monday night, temperatures are forecast to be very cold with lows in the teens (single digits across the far north). Winds are anticipated to be rather light and therefore little in the way of an added chill factor. The surface high shifts offshore Tuesday as a clipper-type system tracks mainly to our north. Its cold front however will cross our area. The moisture with this feature looks limited and with a quick forward motion to it, any precipitation at this time looks to be rather light and spotty. The well below average temperatures are forecast to continue on Tuesday. For Wednesday and Thursday...The eastern Canadian upper-level low looks to reposition itself as additional shortwave energy is directed southeastward on its western and southern flank. This would tend to support low pressure at the surface in the Midwest and Great Lakes Wednesday which then moves our way into Thursday. There remains uncertainty with this given all the moving pieces within the parent upper-level trough, therefore did not deviate from NBM guidance which essentially has PoPs at 20-30 percent across much of the area. While some moderation in the temperatures are forecast ahead of this feature, below average values are expected to continue. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. Tonight...VFR. Winds gradually veering as the night goes on, starting out north/northwesterly and becoming east/northeast late tonight. High confidence in prevailing VFR. Moderate confidence in timing of wind shifts. Friday...Mainly VFR through the morning with snow showers moving in around KMIV/KACY. MVFR conditions likely develop around those terminals by 17z, potentially spreading to the I-95 corridor tomorrow afternoon and evening. Snow showers should primarily stay south of KILG, but cannot rule out a few snow flakes up to KPHL/KPNE. Low confidence in timing and extent of any restrictions developing. Winds generally out of the east around 5 to 8 kt. Outlook... Saturday...Areas of sub-VFR ceilings possible early, otherwise VFR. Sunday through Tuesday...VFR overall. && .MARINE... A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for all marine zones through 10 PM as wind gusts out of the northwest are around 25-30 kt. Seas 3 to 5 feet. The SCA expires at 10 PM for Delaware Bay and Midnight for the ocean. After midnight, no marine headlines expected through Friday Night. Winds generally out of the east/northeast around 10 kt and seas 2 to 4 feet. After an initial onset of snow showers, periods of rain will continue on the waters on Friday. Outlook... Saturday and Sunday...The conditions are anticipated to be below Small Craft Advisory criteria, although winds increase later Sunday night. Monday...A period of Small Craft Advisory conditions possible. Tuesday...The conditions are anticipated to be below Small Craft Advisory criteria. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As a result of the Full Moon on December 4th, spotty minor tidal flooding is possible during the daytime high tides, Friday through Sunday, along the southern New Jersey and Delaware coasts, including parts of the lower Delaware Bay. Flooding is generally expected to remain below advisory criteria. No tidal flooding is expected elsewhere. && .CLIMATE... Very cold temperatures are forecast for early Friday morning which may challenge a few record lows. Record Low Temperatures for December 5th... SITE RECORD/YEAR Allentown (ABE) 11/1926 AC Airport (ACY) 11/1966 AC Marina (55N) 15/1901 Philadelphia (PHL) 13/1886 Wilmington (ILG) 12/1926 Reading (RDG) 12/1926 Trenton (TTN) 10/1926 Mount Pocono (MPO) -2/1971 Georgetown (GED) 14/1966 && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for ANZ430- 431. Small Craft Advisory until midnight EST tonight for ANZ450>455. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DeSilva/Gorse NEAR TERM...Hoeflich SHORT TERM...Gorse LONG TERM...Gorse AVIATION...Fitzsimmons/Gorse/Hoeflich MARINE...Gorse/Hoeflich TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... CLIMATE... ####018003784#### FXUS64 KFWD 042317 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 517 PM CST Thu Dec 4 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Additional light rain is possible across Central Texas on Friday with chances of 20%. No rain is anticipated from Saturday through next week. - Near to below normal temperatures will continue through Monday, with above normal temperatures expected the rest of next week. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Friday) Issued at 1109 AM CST Thu Dec 4 2025 Latest radar imagery shows what's left of this morning's rain and drizzle continues to shift quickly eastward out of the area, with all precipitation expected to be gone by 19Z if not sooner. In its wake, cold and cloudy conditions will continue the rest of today into tonight with highs only in the 40s this afternoon and lows dropping into the upper 20s and 30s. Some patchy fog could occur overnight as a 1021mb surface high settles over the Hill Country, giving us light winds and low dewpoint depressions. However, extensive and thick cloud cover should keep any fog from becoming widespread. Another wave of light rain is expected to develop across South Texas on Friday morning as a secondary positive tilt H5 trough approaches from northern Mexico. Some of this light rain may spread into our southern counties late Friday morning into Friday afternoon per 12Z guidance, although bulk of any rain will stay off to our south. Despite any light rain, highs should be much warmer on Friday than today thanks to southerly winds, reaching the 50s to low 60s. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 1109 AM CST Thu Dec 4 2025 A lengthy dry and quiet period of weather is expected from Friday night through all of next week as our region will remain dominated by dry northwesterly flow aloft. Temperatures look to be near to slightly below normal over the weekend with lows in the 30s/40s and highs in the 50s/60s. A cold front moving through on Sunday will knock temps back down for Sunday night and Monday, with lows in the upper 20s to mid 30s and highs in the 50s. A warmup begins on Tuesday and continues through the rest of next week as southerly winds return, boosting temps above normal with highs up into the 60s/70s. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 505 PM CST Thu Dec 4 2025 Post-frontal MVFR stratus at 1000-2000 ft will remain anchored across the TAF sites through at least 06z before gradually scattering to VFR between 06-10z. A north wind at 5-10 kts will prevail through this time period as well, before winds return to light southerly after 10z tomorrow morning. VFR skies with BKN/OVC cirrus will then prevail through the rest of the daytime. Additional fog and low stratus will arrive around or after 06z Saturday morning, just beyond the current extended DFW TAF period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 45 34 53 40 / 40 0 0 0 Waco 49 37 52 41 / 40 0 10 0 Paris 44 31 50 35 / 40 0 0 0 Denton 44 29 54 34 / 40 0 0 0 McKinney 44 31 52 36 / 40 0 0 0 Dallas 47 35 54 41 / 40 0 0 0 Terrell 46 32 52 39 / 40 0 0 0 Corsicana 49 37 53 43 / 50 0 10 10 Temple 50 37 52 41 / 30 0 20 0 Mineral Wells 47 31 60 36 / 20 0 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Shamburger LONG TERM....Shamburger AVIATION...Stalley ####018004475#### FXUS65 KPSR 042318 AFDPSR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 418 PM MST Thu Dec 4 2025 .UPDATE...Updated 00z Aviation Discussion... && .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry and generally quiet conditions will continue through next week with temperature warming from near normal to above normal levels. - Sub-freezing temperatures expected for higher terrain areas including southern Gila County tomorrow morning. && .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... We saw a cool start to the day as the area saw some of the coldest temperatures this season. Morning lows across the higher terrain registered in the low 30s while lower desert locales ranged anywhere from the upper 30s to mid/upper 40s. This is thanks to the cooler, drier air that has been brought in with the passage of yesterday's trough, which is seen quickly exiting to the east today. While the shortwave trough has now exited well to the east of the region, the Southwest remains under the influence of longwave troughing that will help to keep cooler temperatures in place. Temperatures for the end of the workweek will remain near to slightly below normal as lower desert highs top out in the mid to upper 60s today and tomorrow and upper 50s to low 60s across the higher terrain. Chilly morning temperatures will continue Friday morning as lows once again dip near to below freezing across portions of southern Gila County. Given this, a Freeze Warning is once again in effect for these areas Friday morning. Across the lower deserts, morning lows will range between the upper 30s to low 40s, while a few sheltered locations may dip into the lower 30s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK/... This weekend the aforementioned ridge over the Pacific Ocean will move eastward, but eventually stall just off the west coast. This high pressure system will hangout just off the coast and strengthen through the middle of next week. While the ridge won't be centered over the Desert Southwest, we will be under the influence of the eastern part of the high pressure. This will result in warming temperatures and continued dry and tranquil weather conditions, through at least the middle of next week. H5 heights over the Desert Southwest look to rise into a 576-581 dm range this weekend and peak around 582-585 dm sometime around the middle of next week. This will result in temperatures going above normal during the weekend and rising to around 8-10 degrees above normal by the middle of next week. Afternoon high temperatures this weekend will range from the mid 60s to low 70s across the lower deserts and range from the low to mid 60s across the higher terrain. High temperatures will then continue to warm through the first half of next week rising to the mid to upper 70s across the lower deserts and will be in the upper 60s to low 70s across the higher terrain by the middle of next week. Morning low temperatures will also be 3-6 degrees above normal by the middle of next week (lower deserts: upper 40s to low 50s, higher terrain: upper 30s to mid 40s). && .AVIATION...Updated at 2315Z. South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT; and Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: No aviation weather concerns under some passing high cirrus cloud decks can be expected throughout the TAF period. The overall wind pattern will continue to exhibit light diurnal tendencies along with extended periods of light variability to calm conditions. && .FIRE WEATHER... Dry conditions will continue to prevail across the region through next week. Temperatures will be near to slightly below normal today and tomorrow, warming above normal this weekend, and then going 8-10 degrees above normal by the middle of next week. Winds will be light and tend to follow their typical diurnal tendencies. Humidities over the next week will stay elevated with MinRHs mostly ranging between 20-35% much of the time, with good to very good overnight recoveries. && .PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AZ...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 9 AM MST Friday for AZZ556-560-562. CA...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Smith LONG TERM...Berislavich AVIATION...Lojero FIRE WEATHER...Berislavich ####018003824#### FXUS63 KEAX 042320 AFDEAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 520 PM CST Thu Dec 4 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Coldest temperatures of the season continue today. Relatively warmer temperatures expected Friday and Saturday. - A storm system is expected to pass mainly north of the region Saturday night into Sunday, but looks to bring some chances for rain and accumulating snow across northern MO north of I-70 and the KC metro. - Long term guidance shows a potential for a brief warm up followed by more precipitation. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 359 PM CST Thu Dec 4 2025 The coldest temperatures of the season are upon us with highs across the area ranging from the upper teens to the upper 20s. The good news is that temperatures are expected to rebound back toward seasonal normals as low level flow reorients back out of the south. Weak low level boundaries do perturb the atmosphere enough to keep clouds around, but midlevel ridging and lack of substantial moisture will keep things dry. Saturday night's system continues to evolve. Upper level scenarios have been becoming a little more aligned; however, the general structure of the perturbation has been shifting more towards a subtle wave than the more digging wave of earlier model runs. Lower level structures have become a little more clear with a distinct mid- level mountain wave which looks to progress through the region. Ensemble guidance has shifted the primary track of the system further north which puts the axis of greatest snowfall firmly through central IA. Accumulating snowfall expectations continue to remain north of the I-70 corridor. Probabilistic outlooks continue to show favorability of a trace to an inch of snow with only the far NE portions of the CWA seeing a 20-30 percent chance of snow exceeding one inch. While overall consensus does shift the track of the storm northward, there are still some deterministic model members that move the track southward. However, all guidance members do keep the same temperature profile where areas south of I-70 remain in the warm sector with areas north of I-70 in the cold sector. Precipitation is expected to move into areas of far northern MO Saturday evening. Precipitation is expected to progress ESE through the night continuing through Sunday morning exiting by midday. Temperatures shift to below freezing around 3AM Sunday morning. The good news is that model vertical profiles suggest a sharp transition from rain to snow across far northern MO. There may be a brief bit of sleet mixed in during the transition time frame, but accumulating ice is not expected. An influx of cold air on the backside of the system keeps temperatures mostly below freezing Sunday. Once again flow reverts to southerly and lifts temperatures back up for Monday. Generally zonal upper level flow keeps skies quiet through the early week. As the week progresses, the axis of this zonal flow lifts northward opening up the opportunity for warmer than normal temperatures next Tuesday and Wednesday before another push of cold air moves into the region late next week which could bring our next substantial opportunity for precipitation. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 520 PM CST Thu Dec 4 2025 VFR conditions are expected through the 00z TAF period for all sites. Light, southerly (sometimes variable) winds will shift more southwesterly by the morning, increasing to about 10 knots. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Pesel AVIATION...WFO ILX