####018003622#### FXUS63 KILX 101115 AFDILX Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation National Weather Service Lincoln IL 615 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - In the Monday-Tuesday timeframe, there is a 20-30% chance of greater than 0.75" of rainfall in 24 hours. Should this occur, one impact would be additional runoff into area rivers already running high. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 237 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024 An upper level wave is diving southeast across IL this morning. There have been a few showers associated with this wave as it traversed IA and moved into northwest IL, but the latest high res models indicate these showers won't make it deep into central IL. We will see brief upper ridging this afternoon before another upper wave dives southeast into IL tonight in the northwest flow aloft. An associated surface low will dive southeast across the Great Lakes with an accompanying cold front passing through IL Friday night. We'll see a chance for showers with this system Friday night, but instability looks rather weak. Believe thunder chances will be rather slim as MUCAPEs look to be less than 100 J/kg according to the HREF mean. Expect benign northwesterly flow aloft for the weekend. We'll have breezy northwest winds on Saturday with a surface ridge of high pressure moving through the area Saturday night. By Sunday night, an upper low will be passing to the east across Ontario with a southern stream upper low approaching to the southwest. Precipitation chances increase across IL from this southern system Sunday night, with some moderate chances for thunder expected as MUCAPEs are as high as 500 J/kg in west-central IL. The upper low will slowly make its way east across the mid MS River Valley on Mon/Tue and the track will play a key role in how far north the rain extends. Showers with embedded thunderstorms are expected for the start to the week, with the southern half of IL having the best chance for measurable rainfall. Right now, the rainfall ensemble mean for Mon-Tue ranges from around 0.25" in Galesburg to 0.75" in Lawrenceville. Models also have a 20-30% chance for 0.75" of rain in 24 hrs in our southern zones, around I-72 and south, which could add some additional runoff to area rivers that are already running high. Sometime in the Wed-Thu timeframe, we'll likely see an upper ridge move into the area once again, providing a break from the precip for at least part of the period. There are model differences in the timing of this ridge, but sometime on Thu or Friday, another upper wave is expected to bring showers and storms back to the region. Stay tuned for updates to this late week system as the picture becomes clearer with subsequent model runs. Knutsvig && .AVIATION... (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Saturday Morning) Issued at 614 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Cigs started around 1500 ft this morning across much of central IL...although we do have breaks that are expanding. We'll be seeing improvement through the morning with most areas seeing VFR conditions by early afternoon. With our without the initial low clouds, we should see SCT-BKN decks of cumulus develop by late morning with bases rising to above 3000 ft AGL by early afternoon. A few showers will move into central IL from the northwest around 03Z, but coverage is expected to be rather low so did not include in the TAFs at this time. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ ####018003324#### FXUS63 KICT 101115 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 615 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Quiet and dry weather through Saturday - Confidence increasing for region wide rain Sunday afternoon and into the start of next week && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 301 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Current satellite shows a weak back door frontal system pushing into Northeast Kansas. This front will come through dry and will only serve to bring a re-enforcing shot of dry air. This will keep the pleasant weather over the region for Friday and Saturday. Air temperatures behind the front will not change much but only keep them from climbing into the upper 80s. As such, expect generally light winds and mild temperatures for this time of year. Saturday evening, the winds will be turning of the south and will allow some moisture transport to return to the region. The quality of this moisture will not be that great initially as the Gulf of Mexico will not quite be open. It will take some time for moisture quality to improve. By Sunday, this moisture will improve as the next weather system encroaches on the region. Orientation of this system strongly indicates that severe weather will not be likely. In fact, the system has a more "winter" type look to it with the main polar front jet much further to the south in Central and Southern Oklahoma. This will keep the chances for severe thunderstorm activity very low if not non-existent. Isentropic upglide though at 305K and 315K is strong enough to indicate there will plenty of convergence in the low and mid levels to support light to moderate rain across much of the region. An isolated thunderstorm will also be possible during the afternoon and evening. The main question at this time will be timing and location of the main low pressure track. This will be key in determining where the best rain chances will be located. That said, confidence is increasing (60%-70%) that nearly all areas of the CWA will receive at least some decent rainfall. Amounts are still in question at this time as agreement be the ensembles is not terribly great with some of them showing an earlier onset Sunday morning and some showing the rain leaving late Monday morning. Tuesday through Friday of next week start off quiet again with Tuesday looking rather nice. Wednesday afternoon and into the Thursday look tricky. Some models are indicating another round of showers and thunderstorms. Orientation of this system indicates there is at least a chance for some of this thunderstorm activity could be strong to severe. Confidence in this solution is not great (30%) at this time. Temperatures during this time look to remain near or just above normal and do not see any extreme temperatures swings as of yet. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 614 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024 VFR conditions are expected through this TAF period. Light winds are also expected with no significant aviation weather impacts expected. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...ELM AVIATION...ELM ####018005168#### FXUS63 KGLD 101116 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 516 AM MDT Fri May 10 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and thunderstorms are forecast for this weekend, especially along and south of Interstate 70. Severe weather is not expected at this time. - Severe weather potential may return by the middle of next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 230 AM MDT Fri May 10 2024 For today, another relatively mild day is forecast as the area remains under split flow or slight ridging aloft. With the upper pattern fairly similar to yesterday, conditions will mirror yesterday a mix of clouds and sunshine and some chances for showers in Eastern Colorado (<20%). Highs are forecast to warm into the 60's, but could reach the 70's for locales that see less cloud cover during the day (mainly east of the CO border). Tonight, cloud cover is forecast to continue to stream into the area from Joes, CO to Russell Springs, KS and south with highs generally kept in the 40's. Precipitation chances are forecast to drop off though. Tomorrow, the upper cut-off low to the west is forecast to begin moving east and start rejoining the main flow. This will help advect more moisture into the area and potentially bring some better synoptic lift. With this, cloud cover and precipitation chances will increase through the day with showers and storms forming during the afternoon and evening hours. Given the track of the upper low, locales to along and south of I-70 will likely see more rain and have better forcing. However, no severe weather is expected with little instability in the area and weak flow leading to low shear. Highs are forecast to be similar to Friday in the 60's and 70's, though maybe a few degrees higher east of the CO border depending on how quickly the clouds move in. Saturday night will continue the precipitation chances, though they may lower with the upper system more over the area. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 230 AM MDT Fri May 10 2024 For Sunday, precipitation chances are forecast to continue for the area through the evening hours as the upper low continues to track east, but accompanying troughing through the Plains will help bring a weak low pressure system and front through the area. The storms and showers could end a bit sooner than forecasted as 500mb spread charts are favoring a slightly faster track of the upper features. Severe weather remains unlikely, but the chance is the slightest bit better with MUCAPE trying to approach 1000 J/KG. However, shear remains weak (generally below 20 kts) so small hail would be the greatest "threat" unless a storm can persist and produce large amounts of the small hail. With the system and near persistent cloud cover, highs are forecast to be a bit cooler, generally in the 60's and low 70's. Monday is forecast to have the upper low leave the area and allow cloud cover to break and temperatures warm back into the 70's. There could still be some late afternoon and evening precipitation chances with little to no dry air advection keeping moisture over the area. Will either need some meso features to spark storms or temperatures warm enough to hit convective temperatures. Severe weather is not expected. Tuesday on gets a bit more interesting as guidance suggests that will be the next chance for a more pronounced upper feature to swing through the Western CONUS. In most scenarios, an area of low pressure develops over the area late in the day Tuesday and sparks storms, including the possibility of severe storms. If this scenario happened, temperatures could warm into the 80's with 850mb forecast temps high enough to support surface temperatures in the mid to upper 80s. The reason confidence is not currently high is that the next upper feature is not one wave, but looks to be more of a long trough with an upper low that ejected out of it to the south. Ensemble guidance is suggesting that this could delay the features and change when/where the surface low forms. The warm temperatures would remain, but the storm coverage could be changed with potentially weaker synoptic forcing. Wednesday and Thursday, regardless of solution, look to continue to have storm chances with additional waves moving through the flow and the overall slow progression of the main features. If the trough stays more over the area and/or there is persistent cloud cover from the upper features, temperatures could cool back to the 60's and 70's. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 508 AM MDT Fri May 10 2024 For KGLD & KMCK... VFR conditions are forecast through the period. Near surface winds are forecast to remain around 8 kts or less through the period, generally from the northwest. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. CO...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...KAK LONG TERM...KAK AVIATION...KAK ####018004546#### FXUS65 KRIW 101116 AFDRIW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Riverton WY 516 AM MDT Fri May 10 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and isolated storms ending later this afternoon. - Most locations should have a mostly clear sky tonight for the possible appearance of the northern lights. - Only isolated showers and storms with mild to warm temperatures this weekend. - More active early next week with a better chance for showers and thunderstorms. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 109 AM MDT Fri May 10 2024 It seems like some meteorologists have the worst luck. It was off for three days earlier this week. And, as an avid golfer, I wanted to go out and hit the links. Well, Monday through Wednesday was way too windy to get out there. And now that I have to work, we will have a few nice days to golf. Just my luck. There will be one last shortwave rotating through the area today, and this will bring another chance for showers and isolated thunderstorms. The difference will be that coverage should be less, only 2 out of 5 at best with the exception of the mountains. And, showers should end from north to south through the day. Wind will still be gusty in the south, but less so across the north. And then it will clear from north to south through the day and and into the night. And sky cover will be critical tonight. The reason is, we have the potential for one of a really good display of the northern lights tonight. Out colleagues at the Space Weather Prediction Center have a watch for a G4 storm, the first watch like this in 19 years. Space weather can be fickle but the potential is definitely there. And, for most of the area the news for sky cover is good as ridging builds across the area. The sky should be mostly clear, especially across northern portions of the area. It will be slower to clear across the south and west though, But even here, clouds should then through the night. And, with the expected maximum display expected after midnight, the sky should continue to clear. Stay tuned for updates though. If you want details, we will have a video on social media around 6 am this morning. The weekend for the most part looks very nice. Saturday looks like the best day as ridging moves into the area. There will be just enough instability for an isolated shower or thunderstorm roughly from Interstate 80 and south, but even here the chance is less than 1 in 4. Most other locations will have a nice Spring day with mild temperatures and light to moderate wind. Sunday looks a bit more active as a weak shortwave brushes by to the east. This will increase the coverage of diurnal convection. Most areas will again have less than 1 in 4 chance of a shower or thunderstorm, but the chance will be a bit higher in Natrona and Johnson Counties. But even in areas that get one, a vast majority of the day will be dry. Things then turn more active for the first part of next week as a couple of cold front and troughs move across the state. The first moves through Monday and brings a more widespread chance of showers and thunderstorms to the area, with decent model consensus for the northern half of the state to see the greater coverage. The timing of the second is more uncertain, with a 12 to 24 hour spread in guidance. For now, we went with mainly chance POPS and tried not to pinpoint an area this far out. Temperatures will warm ahead of the front, with some locations in the 80s before cooling for Tuesday and Wednesday. The late week shows ridging building in with drier conditions and warm temperatures returning. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 511 AM MDT Fri May 10 2024 Midlevel cloud deck continues to drift southward across central WY this morning, with some light embedded showers. Vis restrictions have been minimal with these showers, while cigs have briefly fallen below 3000. Expect showers to slowly move south through the day, while clouds thin and clear out north to south. KJAC likely already out of the low clouds for the day, with only high cirrus expected, and KCOD/KWRL clear by 18Z. All sites should be SCT high clouds or less by 00Z and continuing through the rest of the night tonight. && .RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Hattings AVIATION...Straub ####018008341#### FXUS61 KOKX 101118 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 718 AM EDT Fri May 10 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure systems moves south of the area today, and further south and offshore tonight. A weak low approaches Saturday night into Sunday. High pressure returns on Monday before moving offshore into Tuesday. Another low may impact the region during the middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... No changes with this update as the rain moves across the area today. The rain will have some moderate pulses at times, especially across the western 2/3rds of the area this morning. The main question is how far east and for how long of a portion of the day does the rain get into northeastern sections of the area as low level ridging attempts to fend off the progression of the rain. It will be a cool and wet day with cloud cover and an onshore wind out of the ENE. This will result in temperatures being a good 10 degrees or so below normal. A few places in NE CT may reach 60 where a break in the rain is likely for the afternoon and where there may be some thinning of the clouds. The breeze will be noticeable closer to the coast. For tonight look for some pockets light rain for the evening, otherwise the column is expected to gradually dry out. Rainfall totals should end up around a quarter of an inch across far E and NE sections, and closer to a half inch and up to three quarters of an inch across far western locations. Look for mainly dry conditions across the area closer to and after midnight. Clouds will thin out and breaks develop. The only question is can some patchy fog form with a wet ground and if at least some partial clearing can take shape for the second half of the night. Thus have thrown in some patchy fog for the more rural portions of western areas. Temperatures will get a few degrees below normal tonight if the partial clearing develops. Looks for lows to mainly be in the lower and middle 40s, with upper 40s in the metro. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... The weekend should start off dry and rather pleasant, albeit a bit cool through at least the early afternoon on Saturday. Temperatures will average a bit below normal with an onshore wind off the colder ocean. Most places should get into the lower and middle 60s for daytime maxes. Getting closer to evening look for clouds to begin to increase from the west with an introduction of slight chance of showers across far western sections before day's end. For Saturday night look for a good deal of clouds further west, with more clouds getting further east as the night progresses. Went with consensus guidance with respect to PoPs with chance to slight chance PoPs from west to east. With the light onshore flow continuing ahead of a weakening frontal boundary look for temperatures to be a few degrees below normal with lows around 45 to 50. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A shortwave will begin to exit Sunday morning. Low pressure may pass offshore ahead of the shortwave with another weaker low hanging back over the northeast. There is some question surrounding how much surface ridging lingers over New England, which may keep higher probabilities of showers across the western half of the area. The atmosphere is stable so will just mention showers. Highs will primarily be in the mid/upper-50s. There is good agreement among the deterministic and ensemble guidance for the trough to shift offshore Monday. A relatively flat ridge should settle over the northeast Monday, but may also linger into a portion of Tuesday, leading to a dry stretch with increased sunshine. With an approaching low to the west and an exiting high to the east Monday evening/night, south winds could become breezy with most 00Z showing a 35-45kt LLJ developing, likely aided by a southern stream upper-level jet shifting northward over the area. Models have come into better agreement on a southern stream shortwave that moves out of the Plains Tuesday and tracks towards the east coast the middle of next week. An associated frontal system/low pressure should evolve somewhere near the Middle Atlantic. Based on the timing from 00Z guidance it appears the low passing to our south will give us the best chance of rain early Wednesday. High pressure gradually builds in, afterwards. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Low pressure passes to our south as it travels east this morning through the day Friday. Weak high pressure returns Friday night into Saturday morning. Almost all terminals have dropped to MVFR. A few have now dropped to IFR, with others expected to follow suit shortly, with the likeliest IFR at city terminals, though it may only be occasionally IFR. Improvement to MVFR is expected this afternoon then back to VFR sometime in the evening. Rain/showers will continue through much of Friday, clearing by the evening. Rain may not be persistent and may come in waves or on-and-off again showers. East winds increase to around 15kt with gusts 15-20kt. Winds back more NE over the morning into Friday/Friday evening and diminish. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... IFR categories in TAFs may only touch IFR on occasion. Low confidence on timing of return to VFR Friday. OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... Saturday and Sunday: Chance of MVFR or lower in showers. Monday: Mainly VFR. Isolated showers possible at KSWF. Tuesday: VFR. SW G20kt. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 && .MARINE... Small craft conditions take shape across all waters today with gusts at 25 to 30 kt. For tonight sub small craft conditions should return to the non ocean waters, with small craft seas likely remaining on the ocean for the majority of tonight. Sub small craft conditions are expected with seas closer to 4 ft on the ocean for much of this weekend. South winds may increase Monday evening/early Tuesday, but currently keeping ocean waters just below 25 kt gusts. Ocean waters may briefly reach 5 feet during this time frame. && .HYDROLOGY... There are no hydrologic concerns throughout the forecast period. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Minor coastal flooding continues Friday night, but coverage will be less than last night. Have maintained coastal flood advisories for the western south shore bays of Southern Nassau and Southern Queens, along with Southern Fairfield and Southern Westchester. Have chosen based on latest trends from taking an average of Stevens, ETSS, and ESTOFS to downgrade advisories to statements for Southern Brooklyn, Staten Island, and NE NJ coastal zones. Statements which were previously in effect for Southern Suffolk, NW Suffolk, Northern Nassau and Northern Queens have been discontinued as water levels have trended down and are no longer expected to meet minor benchmarks. Saturday night may see one more night where minor benchmarks could be approached for Southern Nassau and Southern Queens, otherwise this latest round of minor coastal flooding should completely come to an end later in the weekend. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...Coastal Flood Advisory from midnight tonight to 4 AM EDT Saturday for CTZ009. NY...Coastal Flood Advisory from midnight tonight to 4 AM EDT Saturday for NYZ071. Coastal Flood Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 1 AM EDT Saturday for NYZ178-179. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ331- 332-335-340. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ338- 345. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ350-353- 355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JE/BR NEAR TERM...JE/BR SHORT TERM...JE/BR LONG TERM...BR AVIATION...BR MARINE...JE/BR HYDROLOGY...JE/BR TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... ####018006837#### FXUS65 KPUB 101119 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 519 AM MDT Fri May 10 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Continued mountain snow and rain over the plains for the rest of this morning, with gradual clearing through this afternoon and this evening. - Continued unsettled through Sunday with rounds of showers and thunderstorms and mountain snow. - Another system possible for Wed/Wednesday night but confidence in details remains low at this point. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 326 AM MDT Fri May 10 2024 Currently.. Satellite imagery shows the low still sitting over the Great Basin this morning, streaming moisture into Colorado. Radar depicts rain and snow showers over the forecast area, with heaviest showers over the San Luis Valley and the eastern mountains. Area observations show light rain showers across the I-25 corridor, with locations above 7,000ft seeing snow showers at this time. Area webcams are showing light to moderate snow showers for most mountain locations, though a few of our mountain adjacent locations are showing signs of some heavier snow showers, to include the San Luis Valley and also the Walsenburg area this hour. For this reason, have decided to add Huerfano County into a short duration Winter Weather Advisory until 9am this morning due to the impacts of heavy snow on area roadways, including highway 160, that are likely seeing slick conditions this morning. Today and Tonight.. Models keep the low in place through the rest of today and into tonight, shifting it only slightly southward by early tomorrow morning. This will keep a cool and wet pattern in place for our region, though the window of best ascent over the mountains and best upslope over the plains will come to an end this morning. Light rain and snow will continue to be possible throughout the day today for all locations in and near the mountains. Can't rule out a few rumbles of thunder today as well, though heavy rain and stronger storms are not expected. Additional snowfall for the higher terrain looks to be limited to around 4 to 6 inches of new snow for most higher terrain locations at most. Daytime highs top out in the 50s for our mountain valleys and for the I-25 corridor today. Our far eastern plains will miss out on most rain chances later today, but will likely warm into the 60s and low 70s by this afternoon. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 326 AM MDT Fri May 10 2024 Upper low wobbling over the Desert Southwest lifts eastward towards the Four Corners region on Saturday. This will bring another round of upper forcing along with some afternoon convective instability with showers increasing in coverage again through the day as the system approaches. Snow levels look higher with this second round but we could see some more advisory type numbers across the higher peaks and passes above 9000 feet on Saturday. This wave may bring a better chance for rain to the southeast corner of the state before it shears off to the east. However it should stay fairly unsettled through the night as the upper low keeps at least some isolated to scattered rain and snow showers across the mountains overnight. Will need to see how much instability can be realized with breaks in the cloud cover and surface heating during the afternoon. If this occurs, we could see some small hail with any stronger convective elements Sat afternoon given the lower freezing levels with the upper low overhead. HREF is showing mean CAPE values of up to 500 J/kg. Upper low makes eastward progress on Sunday with one more round of showers and afternoon thunderstorms expected to ramp up again in the afternoon with some weak wrap round forcing and some convective instability in the afternoon. New QPF gets progressively lower as the better moisture tap pulls off to the east, but could see a few inches of snow fall across the higher terrain. Although CAPE is not particularly high will need to watch the position of the surface boundary across the southeast plains as localized vorticity along this boundary could get stretched by updrafts for some landspout activity if surface based heating is sufficient. This is a low probability/low confidence forecast at this point, but something to monitor as details become more certain. We dry out and warm up behind the departing system for Monday and Tuesday with temperatures returning to above normal. Pattern remains active next week however as another system drops in from the northwest, ejecting some weak energy across the southwest U.S. across CO ahead of the next system which drops in from the northwest. Extended models/ensembles diverge with the details, with ensembles more progressive with ejecting the system eastward. However, consensus of current runs shows this next system has the potential to tap some colder air with another round of rain/snow showers across the mountains, with showers and thunderstorms across the plains Wed/Wed Night. Drier and warmer conditions should return for late week. -KT && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 507 AM MDT Fri May 10 2024 For KCOS..VFR ceilings and continued light rain showers are expected to prevail for another couple of hours early this morning. MVFR ceilings are expected between 18Z and 02Z this afternoon, as southeasterly winds redevelop over the area and upslope tries to redevelop as well, though rain showers will begin to tail off around that timeframe. Ceilings improve to VFR after 02Z this evening. For KPUB..VFR ceilings, light rain showers, and west-northwesterly winds are expected to continue until 15Z this morning. Showers remain in the vicinity throughout the morning hours, with mid-level cloud cover and westerly winds remaining throughout the remainder of the TAF period. For KALS..MVFR ceilings and light snow showers are expected on station at KALS through the majority of this TAF period, along with mainly easterly winds. Improvement to VFR ceilings is expected after 00Z this evening, though showers will likely still be lingering in the vicinity of station through this evening. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM MDT this evening for COZ058- 059-062-063-065>071-077-081-082. Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM MDT this evening for COZ060- 061-072>076-078>080. Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM MDT this morning for COZ087. && $$ SHORT TERM...EHR LONG TERM...KT AVIATION...EHR ####018004182#### FXUS65 KFGZ 101119 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 419 AM MST Fri May 10 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Mild temperatures will continue through Saturday with isolated to scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms along and north of I-40. Warmer temperatures arrive starting Sunday, with another chance for a few showers or storms Tuesday and Wednesday. Expect typical spring-like breezes through the period. && .DISCUSSION...Low pressure is located across the southwest US this morning, centered over southern Utah and Nevada. Cooler temperatures in the mid levels associated with this trough have allowed for some cloud buildups during the afternoon even though low level moisture is meager (dewpoints teens/20s). Virga and a few sprinkles developed from around Flagstaff northward late Thursday afternoon. As the low moves a bit farther toward the southwest this afternoon, the better chances for a shower or thunderstorm (20-30%) will be from around the Grand Canyon northward. Otherwise, look for a nice day around the region with relatively light winds and highs near normal. For Saturday - the low is forecast to move back eastward and cross northern Arizona. Instability and mid level moisture increase, and we have introduced a 20-40% chance of showers and thunderstorms from the the Flagstaff region north and east, with the higher values near the four corners. This activity will be high-based as surface dewpoints will still be only in the 20s, meaning any shower could produce gusty/erratic winds but not much rain. Sunday and Monday - the low shifts well east of the state as brief ridging develops over the region. There will still be some cloud buildups over the mountains each afternoon, but mid level temperatures will warm a few degrees keeping instability down and decreasing the chance of showers to under 10%. Afternoon temperatures will warm to around 5 degrees above normal by Monday. Tuesday and Wednesday - a weak low off the Pacific is forecast to move eastward into the state. More mid level moisture and mid- level cooling will lead to some isolated afternoon showers mainly over high terrain. Again these should be high-based with little in the way of rainfall but still producing some gusty winds. Beyond Wednesday, model spread increases but the overall trend looks like high pressure building over the western US. && .AVIATION...Friday 10/12Z through Saturday 11/12Z...VFR conditions should mostly prevail through the TAF period. Isolated -SHRA/-TSRA will be possible near/north of KGCN after 18Z. Brief periods of FU/HZ possible near KSEZ through 16Z, with impacts likely to KFLG afterwards. Expect mostly light winds overnight/early morning, becoming SW 10-20 kts in the afternoon. OUTLOOK...Saturday 11/12Z through Monday 13/12Z...VFR conditions should prevail outside of slight chances for -SHRA/-TSRA Saturday afternoon. Precipitation will likely stay along and north of a KSEZ-KRQE line. Periods of FU/HZ possible near prescribe burns, mainly the KFLG and KSEZ terminals. Look for W winds 10-25 kts on Saturday afternoon, becoming W-NW winds on Sunday. Light winds return during the overnight timeframe. && .FIRE WEATHER...Friday and Saturday...Look for below normal temperatures each afternoon, with isolated showers/storms mostly along and north of I-40. Winds overnight should generally be light, but localized breezes are possible. Expect south-southwest winds 10- 20 mph today, becoming west winds 10-25 mph on Saturday. Sunday through Tuesday...Temperatures will warm to a few degrees above normal through the beginning of the week. Afternoon precipitation chances are low each afternoon, but not zero. Look for west-northwest winds 10-20 mph on Sunday, becoming west winds around 5-15 mph Monday and Tuesday. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ PUBLIC...JJ AVIATION...Konieczny FIRE WEATHER...Konieczny For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff