####018008442#### FXUS63 KLMK 090200 AFDLMK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 900 PM EST Mon Dec 8 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... * Milder temperatures and sunshine return on Tuesday. * Windy conditions are expected Tuesday night into Wednesday, with widespread wind gusts of 25-35 mph and isolated gusts to 40 mph likely. * Several chances for light precipitation return during the second half of the week. Light wintry precipitation is possible Thursday night into Friday, but significant impacts are not expected at this time. * Cold temperatures are likely this weekend, but forecast temperatures have trended less cold. && .UPDATE... Issued at 900 PM EST Mon Dec 8 2025 Chilly, calm conditions are being observed this evening as high pressure drifts overhead. Most of southern Indiana (except for Harrison/Floyd counties) and western Kentucky now have mostly clear skies, which has allow temps to dip into the mid 20s already. Stratus continues to slowly scour out from the west and north across central KY, but we're also seeing the lower clouds thin a bit faster now over the Bluegrass. Expect a patch of SCT-BKN low clouds over central KY to gradually move off to the east over the next several hours. Temperatures will dip further into the upper teens to mid 20s during that time frame. Winds will remain light overnight, only beginning to increase out of the SSW toward dawn. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 346 PM EST Mon Dec 8 2025 This afternoon, cool and cloudy conditions are left in the wake of this morning's system which left anywhere from a dusting to 2 inches of snow as well as light rain across southern IN and central KY. Visible satellite shows that stratus clouds are beginning to clear across southern IN and western KY. The clearing process will gradually continue from north to south later this evening and tonight as high pressure moves over the area and cold advection subsides in the lower troposphere. As the high pressure moves across the region tonight, northerly winds should go light and variable this evening before becoming southerly early Tuesday morning as another low pressure system begins to approach from the northwest. Low clouds could linger tonight, especially across south central KY, and how much cooling we see will be dependent on how quickly clouds clear. Where clouds clear, temperatures should be able to fall into the low-to-mid 20s, and upper teens would be likely in areas which have greater snow cover. Additionally, some patchy fog can't be ruled out, though this should be limited as winds increase early Tuesday morning. On the other hand, if low clouds hang on, lows would only be expected to fall into the mid-to-upper 20s, and temperatures will likely rise or be stagnant in the immediate pre-dawn hours Tuesday as southerly winds increase. Tuesday should give us our first decent warm return flow day in a while as southwest winds strengthen ahead of an approaching sfc low pressure system. This warm advection should help to scour out any lingering low clouds, with scattered mid- and upper-level clouds expected throughout the day. Still, there should be at least filtered sunshine for most of the day on Tuesday, which when combined with warm breezes, should allow temperatures to warm into the mid- and upper-40s across the area. While the peak low- and mid- level winds will remain to the northwest of the area during the day on Tuesday, by the afternoon, we should be able to achieve 10-15 mph sustained SW winds with widespread wind gusts of 20-25 mph. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 346 PM EST Mon Dec 8 2025 The synoptic pattern during the second half of the upcoming week is expected to feature deep NW flow across much of the CONUS as an upper low spins over eastern Canada while upper ridging remains entrenched off the west coast. Shortwaves along the southwestern flank of the upper trough will bring several clipper systems across the central and eastern CONUS, providing several chances for light precipitation across the Ohio Valley. The first of these clipper systems should develop over the Dakotas Tuesday afternoon, with 990 mb sfc low pressure swinging across the Great Lakes Tuesday night into Wednesday. With our region sandwiched between the deep low pressure to the north and high pressure to the south, a strong pressure and height gradient will be in place across the region Tuesday night into Wednesday. As a result of the strong height gradient, a 60-65 kt H85 jet will swing across the Ohio Valley Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. While nighttime low- level stability should keep the strongest winds aloft, windy conditions are expected Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, with gusts of 25-35 mph likely. As is typical with clipper systems, moisture will be fairly limited and mostly confined to the north side of the system. With that being said, as a sfc cold front passes through the region Wednesday, there should be enough combination of lift and moisture to squeeze out scattered rain showers. Rainfall amounts should be light, with most areas receiving less than 0.10". Behind the Wednesday clipper system, temperatures should drop for Wednesday night into Thursday. While there could be a few scattered flurries on Thursday, it is more likely that Thursday will end up being dry across the area as we remain in between systems. Thursday night into Friday, there is pretty good agreement in a second shortwave and clipper system sliding across the Ohio Valley. Exact timing and precipitation types and amounts are a bit more variable between different model solutions. Given the modest cold air intrusion behind the mid-week system and limited moderation in temperatures, wintry p-types are more likely with this system. For example, of ECMWF ensemble members which have precipitation, roughly 80% show snow for Louisville. Once again, moisture with this system will be limited as the disturbance will be blocked from accessing Gulf moisture. As a result, while there is a reasonably good chance in wintry precipitation Thursday night into Friday, impacts are generally expected to be limited at this time. As we head from Friday into the coming weekend, there has been a notable shift in the model guidance with respect to the magnitude of the cold air over the past several model runs. Most recent guidance has trended milder, with less amplification of the upper wave pattern and less southward progression of the arctic air mass. As a result, temperatures with this forecast update have come up about 5- 10 degrees across the area on Saturday, though there is still a relatively large spread in temperature guidance. Below normal temperatures are still likely this weekend, though there should be a stronger north-south temperature gradient given the trend toward a more baroclinic/zonal flow pattern. Another effect of this change in the expected pattern would be increased chances for precipitation, though p-types and amounts are highly uncertain. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 644 PM EST Mon Dec 8 2025 MVFR stratus is slowly scouring out from the north and west this evening, and SDF and BWG will likely see skies become FEW-SCT within the first 2-3 hours of this forecast period. Confidence is lower on the exact timing of clearing at LEX/RGA. LEX is slightly above the VFR threshold, but BKN ceilings could linger a bit deeper into the overnight period while flirting with MVFR conditions. Or, some brief/TEMPO MVFR conditions are not out of the question at LEX early Tuesday morning. VFR conditions are expected to return by Tuesday morning, with winds picking up out of the south by mid-to-late morning. 20-25 kt wind gusts are likely Tuesday afternoon, with scattered mid-level clouds expected through the day. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...None. IN...None. && $$ UPDATE...EBW SHORT TERM...CSG LONG TERM...CSG AVIATION...EBW ####018007106#### FXUS61 KLWX 090204 AFDLWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 904 PM EST Mon Dec 8 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Canadian high pressure will move into the area tonight and Tuesday. A quick moving clipper system will pass through the Great Lakes Wednesday. A secondary cold front follows suit on Thursday. Yet another fast moving frontal system may reach the area Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Current observations across the region show continued light snow showers down along the I-64 corridor. These are finally starting to taper off in the past hour, and that trend will continue into this evening. High pressure over the Great Lakes will gradually build overhead, and continue ushering in very cold and dry air. Clouds may hang around until the second half of the night. Even without maximized radiational cooling, the cold advection and very low dew points will still allow most areas to drop into the teens. The urban cores and bayshore will stay "warmer" in the low 20s. Some of the colder valleys could drop into the single digits, especially where there is snow pack. Any residual moisture or slush will likely freeze on untreated surfaces. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... The surface high will slide off to the south and east Tuesday. Despite return flow by afternoon, cold air will remain in place, with most areas staying in the 30s during the day. Dry weather is expected, although a shortwave trough aloft will increase mid and high level clouds. The pressure gradient will tighten Tuesday night as a clipper-type low moves into the Great Lakes. This could bring gusts into the 30 to 40 mph range on the ridges, and keep a light southerly wind in place in the lower elevations. Clouds will also continue to thicken. However, it may not be enough to stop the temperatures from dropping back into the 20s. Some precipitation may approach from the west but most likely holds off until after sunrise. Most of the warm advection precipitation will remain along and west of the Allegheny front, although some models bring some light precipitation across northern parts of the area. There is a small chance this could be a wintry mix if it starts early enough. Otherwise it would just be rain as temperatures rise into the 40s with gusty south-southwest winds. Even in the Alleghenies, temperatures will likely rise above freezing in most spots, which may result in some rain mixing at times, and any snow accumulations limited to the higher ridges. The low will move into the St. Lawrence Valley Wednesday evening as the mid and upper trough axis dives toward the region. Upslope moisture will change fully to snow in the Alleghenies. There remains some spread on how much moisture will be available, but at least several inches of snow is probable. Winds will also increase, potentially to near Wind Advisory caliber on the highest peaks. Therefore some near-blizzard conditions can't be ruled out. Wind chill values will also drop into the 0 to 10 degree range in this area. Winds won't be quite as gusty in the lower elevations, and little precipitation will spill east of the Alleghenies. Temperatures will drop back into the mid 20s to mid 30s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... The long term period will start off on Thursday with troughing along the East Coast, ridging along the West Coast, and west-northwesterly flow across much of the CONUS between those two features. A strong area of low pressure is expected to track toward the Canadian Maritimes on Thursday, with strong cold advection ensuing in its wake over the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic. A few snow showers may linger to the west of the Allegheny Front, but dry conditions are expected further east. It will be a chilly day, with high temperatures in the 30s and lower 40s for most (20s mountains). Winds may gust to around 20-30 mph out of the northwest, making it feel even colder. West-northwesterly flow will continue aloft across much of the CONUS to end the week. Guidance suggests that multiple clipper-like systems may track toward the area out of Canada. Forecast spread remains large with these systems, but at least the Alleghenies should experience chances for snow. Further east, mainly dry conditions are expected, but some snow could also be possible Friday into Friday night depending on how those systems track. Guidance favors well below normal temperatures, with highs likely struggling to get out of the 30s this coming weekend. && .AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Significant improvement seen in the past hour at CHO, but some light snow flurries continue for now, resulting in slight VSBY reductions. Low-end VFR to MVFR CIGs are expected at CHO through the first half of the night. As strong high pressure builds in, winds turn light overnight, with VFR conditions expected everywhere else. VFR conditions continue for Tuesday and Wednesday. As high pressure moves off the coast, winds shift to southerly on Tuesday, picking up in intensity during the late afternoon to evening period with gusts to around 15 to 20 knots. Further upticks in wind are expected for Wednesday ahead of a fast moving clipper-like system. Gusts up to 20 to 30 knots are possible before winds shift to westerly late Wednesday behind the associated cold front. VFR conditions are expected on both Thursday and Friday. Winds will be gusty out of the northwest on Thursday, and then lighter out of the west on Friday. && .MARINE... Small Craft Advisories are in place through tonight for the southern waters due to residual gusty winds. High pressure will slide across the area Tuesday, providing lighter winds that will quickly become southerly. The gradient increases by Tuesday evening as this high exits the coast. Small Craft Advisories will likely be required for Tuesday night, especially along the bay. Strong southerly winds continue Wednesday in response to a quick-moving low pressure system in the Great Lakes. Gusts up to 25 to 30 knots are possible this period. The associated cold front will cross Wednesday night, while advisory conditions will remain likely. Small Craft Advisories appear likely on Thursday within northwesterly flow. A few Gale gusts can't be ruled out during that time. Sub-SCA level westerly winds are expected on Friday but will increase Friday night. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...None. MD...None. VA...None. WV...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ532-533- 540>542. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ534-537-543. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ADS NEAR TERM...ADS/CJL SHORT TERM...ADS LONG TERM...KJP AVIATION...ADS/CJL/KJP MARINE...ADS/CJL/KJP