####018006563#### FXUS61 KPBZ 111834 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 134 PM EST Thu Dec 11 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Active weather through the weekend will bring rounds of snow, as well as fluctuating temperature and gusty winds. Overall, snowfall accumulations favor areas north of Interstate 80 and the ridges of southwest Pennsylvania and northern West Virginia. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... KEY MESSAGES: - Lingering upslope and lake-effect snow showers today taper off after sunset; light accumulations possible north of I-80 and in the ridges - Below seasonal temperatures continue - WSW in north and PA ridges extended to 00Z --------------------------------------------------------------- The current conditions feature the Upper OH Valley under W-NW flow through the day and resulting in passing lake effect snow showers through the region. The morning 12Z sounding did indeed have some low level instability and saturation, though shallow, over the DGZ just off the surface. This still makes the environment favorable for some weaker snow squalls through the day but becoming weaker as wind direction shifts more to the west. The Advisory in effect for the northern counties and the ridges to the east will remain in effect until 00Z when the shallow moisture layer finally disappears. Low temps tonight will be well below normal with lows at least 10 degrees below normal. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... KEY MESSAGES: - Weak disturbance passes to south on Friday - Sat/Sun disturbance slated to impact the forecast area - Below normal temperatures persist ---------------------------------------------------------------- A weak shortwave dives across the Ohio Valley and Mid Atlantic first thing Friday morning, bringing increasing snow chances south of I-70 with the best chance for light accumulations in the ridges of northern WV if not only Tucker county. There has been a decent jog in the storm track to the south with run to run in the NBM and for that matter, many of the deterministic models. For now, will expect 1 to 2 inches in Tucker County. A second shortwave hot on its heels moves over the lower Great Lakes overnight Friday into early Saturday. This second wave brings light snow chances to more of the area but with little to no additional accumulation. The main concern will be the 3rd disturbance arriving late Saturday and through Sunday morning. This disturbance continues to remain within the progressive upper level track as it speeds across the Midwest and into the Ohio Valley by Saturday evening. The bullseye for the main band seems to line up over Fayette County in the models. Also unsettling is that the 25th and 75th percentile in this area of concern is 4 inches and 8 inches respectively. Maintaining a strong 60% to 70% probability of 6 inches will make a situation that still needs to be watched. The concern here is that this disturbance will take the route of the previous one and sag south with time. Trends will need to be monitored in the coming day to determine a possible chance in track. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... KEY MESSAGES: - Much colder with snow chances through early next week - Warmer with rain returning for the second half of the week ------------------------------------------------------------------- Model ensembles indicate a deep upper trough will cross the region Sunday. This, along with cold WNW flow across the Great Lakes, will maintain snow chances across the region. Model ensemble 850 mb temps drop to -19 to -20 deg C through the day, with high temperatures only reaching the 15 to 20 degree range. Low Sunday night are expected to be in the teens and single digits, with wind chills in the single digits to as low as 15 below zero in the higher terrain of WV. Snow chances should taper off Monday as low level ridging builds in, and warm advection begins. Dry weather is then expected through mid week as the flow aloft becomes zonal, and temperatures moderate. A trough embedded in the zonal flow is progged to approach and cross the region Wednesday night through Thursday night, with precipitation chances returning. Mainly rain is expected, with 850 mb temperatures progged at +3 to +6 deg C. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... KEY MESSAGES: - Patchy MVFR (local IFR) in scattered snow showers through this evening - Low VFR (MVFR N of PIT) continues tonight - MVFR cigs FKL, DUJ, MGW and ZZV Friday ------------------------------------------------------------------- Cold NW flow off of the Great lakes and broad upper troughing will maintain an extensive stratocu layer across the region through tonight. Scattered snow showers will continue through this evening with lake enhancement under the upper trough. The 12Z PIT sounding also showed a steep lapse rate and saturation through the dendritic growth zone, helping to maintain the snow showers. The boundary layer flow is progged to back to the west by this evening, confining the snow showers generally near and north of I 80, where MVFR cigs are expected to persist. Gusty wind will continue until this evening with mixing and a tight surface pressure gradient. Stratocu is expected to persist tonight as surface low pressure tracks across the Midwest and Lower Ohio Valley region. Most of the snow from this low should stay south of the TAF sites, though some flurries are possible at MGW and ZZV. MVFR cigs are likely at FKL and DUJ with cold wrly flow off of the Great Lakes, and at ZZV and MGW where they will be on the northern side of low pressure tracking across the Lower Ohio Valley region. Outlook... A crossing cold front will continue restriction potential and snow showers Saturday, with widespread restrictions and an accumulating snowfall with an upper trough Saturday night into Sunday morning. Patchy restrictions and scattered snow showers are possible Monday under cold NW flow. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for PAZ007>009-015-016-074-076-078. OH...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Shallenberger NEAR TERM...Shallenberger SHORT TERM...Shallenberger LONG TERM...WM AVIATION...WM