####018006067#### FXUS61 KRLX 090220 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 920 PM EST Mon Dec 8 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Cold overnight as weak high pressure crosses. Dry with a milder southwest flow on Tuesday. A cold front moves through Wednesday. A clipper crosses toward the end of the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 920 PM Monday... Allowed the remainder of the Winter Storm Warnings and Winter Weather Advisories to expire, with little additional accumulation expected. A small area of light snow was hanging tough in central WV. Mentioned ice from earlier snow melt keeping roads slick through the overnight, and issued a Special Weather Statement for same that extended a little farther north than the Advisories and Warnings did. As of 735 PM Monday... Allowed the Advisories expiring at 7 PM in central WV to expire. The snowfall in WV was winding down ever so slowly, and the remainder of the headlines remain in effect until 9 PM. As of 505 PM Monday... Allowed western portions of the Advisories expire but extended a northern portion of it in central WV, that was also expiring at 5 PM, until 7 PM. Also updated PoPs to account for a slower exodus of the snowstorm this evening. Will also issue a Special Weather Statement along the northwest fringes of the remaining Advisories for refreeze upon nightfall this cold evening. As of 1225 PM Monday... Winter weather headlines remain in effect this afternoon and evening for southern and eastern portions of the forecast area. models show the snow tapering off from west to east this afternoon and evening. After the snow tapers off, a high pressure system will provide dry weather for the remainder of tonight and Tuesday. NOTE: Temperatures this evening will become cold enough that any water on roads will freeze. This could cause hazardous road conditions on untreated roads even after the snow has ended. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 1255 PM Monday... A system will move through the Great Lakes area on Wednesday, with a trailing cold front pushing through the region. This will generally create a rain scenario in general, although higher elevations of the West Virginia mountains may remain snow. Colder air will move in behind the front Wednesday night with gusty winds, providing an upslope snow situation for Wednesday night into Thursday. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 100 PM Monday... A series of clippers will then effect the area for Thursday night into the weekend. Models struggle on the timing and placement of these systems, leading to a low confidence in the forecast. It should also be noted that there are significant differences in the models regarding the intensity of the colder air moving into the region as well. && .AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 735 PM Monday... Ceilings and visibility at CRW, EKN and BKW were improving this evening, as the snowfall was winding down. CRW should be VFR overnight but MVFR stratocumulus will reform during the daylight morning hours on Tuesday, before breaking up for a VFR afternoon. EKN visibility will improve to VFR in the next hour or so, but MVFR ceilings will persist through the overnight hours and into Tuesday morning, before breaking up and allowing for a VFR balance of the day. BKW visibility will improve to VFR in the next hour or two but IFR ceilings there will persist through the night, before improving to MVFR during the daylight morning hours on Tuesday, and then breaking up and allowing for VFR conditions from late morning on. In addition, VLIFR dense fog is forecast to form there overnight, and dissipate around daybreak Tuesday. Elsewhere, HTS had already improved to VFR and should remain so overnight, but low MVFR stratocumulus to IFR stratus will reform during the daylight morning hours on Tuesday, before breaking up for a VFR afternoon. CKB and PKB were VFR, but MVFR stratocumulus will reform during the daylight morning hours on Tuesday, before breaking up for a VFR balance of the forecast. PKB remains VFR this period. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to high. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of visibility improvement as snow ends tonight could vary. Fog may not be as dense as forecast at BKW overnight. Extent of morning MVFR/IFR ceilings Tuesday may vary. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE TUE UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 EST 1HRLY 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 CRW CONSISTENCY H M M M M L M M M M L M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY M H H H H H M M H M M M EKN CONSISTENCY H H L H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY... IFR conditions are possible area-wide Wednesday night through Thursday in a rain to rain/snow mix, and then in mainly snow by Friday. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RPY/TRM NEAR TERM...RPY/TRM SHORT TERM...RPY LONG TERM...RPY AVIATION...TRM ####018007294#### FXUS62 KGSP 090221 AFDGSP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 921 PM EST Mon Dec 8 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Dry high pressure will move in from the west through the middle part of the week. A series of two cold fronts will move across the region during the latter half of the week, ultimately bringing much cooler temperatures by the end of the weekend and into early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 915 PM EST Monday... Key Message 1: Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect for Avery County and elevations above 3,500 feet in Yancey and Mitchell Counties until 1 AM Tuesday. Will continue the Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM, even though snow has largely ended across the area. Temperatures are well into the 20s in the advisory area, so any melted snow or lingering snow cover will result in slippery roads thru the rest of the evening. A Special Weather Statement (SPS) will likely replace the advisory when it expires for lingering black ice thru Tuesday morning. Key Message 2: Drier conditions return this evening into tonight but slippery roads will be a concern through Tuesday morning for areas that received accumulating snowfall. Surface high pressure gradually builds in from the north tonight bringing drier and colder conditions. With temps expected to fall (or remain) below freezing, slippery road conditions will be a concern for the evening and morning commutes across areas that received accumulating snowfall. An SPS may need be issued later this afternoon to account for possible hazardous road conditions this evening into early Monday morning. Cloud cover will gradually thin out through the overnight hours allowing temps to drop below freezing area-wide tonight. Lows will end up ~5-10 degrees below normal. Key Message 3: Dry and cool conditions expected on Tuesday with gradually diminishing cloud cover. Temperatures will rise above freezing by mid to late morning Tuesday for most locations allowing the concern for slippery roads to diminish. Surface high pressure will remain over the GSP forecast area keeping dry and cool conditions around for Tuesday. Although cloud cover will gradually thin out throughout the day (we will finally get to see sunshine), highs will remain ~10-15 degrees below normal area-wide. Highs will only reach into the upper 30s to upper 40s across the mountain valleys and east of the mountains. Highs across the higher elevations will range from the lower 30s to lower 40s. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Key Messages: 1) Winds pick up on Wednesday, especially over the mountains. 2) Mostly dry and near normal temps. As of 1210 PM EST Monday: The short term looks mostly quiet with the exception of minimal precipitation chances and wind. A more typical winter pattern continues with a strong high off the west coast, creating NW flow aloft across the the eastern CONUS. On Wednesday, a strong area of low pressure churns over Canada as a second, weaker low spins off toward the south. Current guidance brings this low further south, increasing the chances for windy conditions. This tighter pressure gradient looks to go right over the CWA. A speed max embedded in the general flow, looks to maximize Wednesday into Wednesday night before exiting the area. At this time, guidance has a 40-50% chance of wind gusts greater than 45 mph at the higher elevations of the mountains. This would be right about Wind Advisory Criteria, so there is a possibility one would be needed. Confidence is increasing on wind gusts of 35 mph or greater as the chances also tick up into the 50-60% range across the NC mountains. Will continue to monitor. As for precipitation, the better news is guidance is coming in much drier as the persistent trough starts to recede northward, keeping the stints of advancing DPVA further north. So, the potential for a cold front is almost completely gone, meaning winter weather chances have also decreased. There is a slight chance (15-30%) that a brief burst of snow along the TN/NC border is possible Wednesday night, but confidence is low. IF anything falls, there is a 10-15% chance of snow amounts greater than 0.01 inch. Additionally, this means the colder temps that were in previous guidance has now pushed further into the next period. Temperatures Wednesday and Thursday look to be near normal. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... 1) Snow chances over the NC mountains Thursday night into Friday are decreasing . 2) A potential colder period toward the end of the weekend with temperatures about 15 degrees below normal. As of 1220 PM EST Monday: By Friday, the NW flow aloft remains locked in for the extended. However, guidance has changed and brings the better flow northward, keeping the CWA out of the main show. At the surface, the colder air looks to also be much slower breaking out of Canada and spilling into the U.S. This also keeps the temperatures near normal through at least Saturday, before dipping. As for any precipitation chances, this has also drastically changed. The highest PoPs are for the TN/NC border on Thursday and Friday nights and those are capped at slight (15-30%). If temperatures are cold enough and there is any surface moisture lingering, there could be a brief burst of snow at the highest elevations. Some of this may linger into Friday but confidence continues to increase that there won't be any impactful winter weather. Current probabilities for snow amounts greater than 0.01 inch are less than 20%, and this is mainly at the highest peaks. So, all in all, the winter weather chances are plummeting and a quieter period is starting to emerge. This still needs to be evaluated as any shift of the main flow aloft could be the difference between quiet weather and increasing precipitation chances. && .AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... At KCLT and elsewhere: Low clouds are expected to persist thru the night across the area, but confidence is below average, as guidance seems too low on cigs compared to latest METARs. For now, still expect mainly MVFR to IFR cigs from late evening thru daybreak Tuesday. NE wind should limit fog development, but will weaken, allowing for at least some potential for vsby restrictions. Low clouds should mix out to a few VFR-level clouds by 18z, as a patch of cirrus streams by. Wind will be LGT/VRB in the morning, then toggle to SW in the aftn and remain light. Outlook: Generally VFR expected thru the end of the week. Gusty SW winds expected across the area Wednesday. NW flow precip may develop along the NC/TN border Wednesday night and again Thursday night but dry conditions should linger elsewhere. && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. NC...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM EST Tuesday for NCZ033-049- 050. SC...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DEO NEAR TERM...AR/ARK SHORT TERM...CP LONG TERM...CP AVIATION...ARK