####018008011#### FXUS66 KPQR 041036 AFDPQR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Portland OR 335 AM PDT Sat May 4 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Steady light to moderate rain will continue across the lowlands of SW Washington and NW Oregon, while snow levels lower to just below the Cascade passes later this morning then remain there through Sunday. Low pressure off the Pac NW coast will move onshore near the OR/CA border this evening, with wraparound precip persisting through Sunday for much of the forecast area. Travel impacts in the Cascades will largely occur tonight into Sunday morning. Another round of rain and Cascades snow is expected Monday as the next system moves onshore, with post-frontal showers lingering into Tuesday. A significant warming and drying trend is expected later in the week as high pressure builds aloft over the region. && .SHORT TERM...Now through Monday...Latest GOES-West infrared and water vapor imagery reveal broad low pressure aloft just off the Pac NW coast. An associated frontal band has tapped into some subtropical moisture with blended total precipitable water (TPW) values of around 1 inch associated with the front. The frontal zone will more or less pivot over northern Oregon as the upper low drifts SE and moves onshore near the OR/CA coast through this evening. As a result, expect fairly steady light to moderate precipitation through this evening. This may continue all the way through Sunday if most of the deterministic models are correct in maintaining deformation precipitation over much of the CWA. NBM median QPF shows weekend precip totals of 0.4 to 0.8 inch over the lowlands with 1-2 inches still to come over the Cascades. Snow levels have been lowering a bit slower than expected overnight, so we postponed the start time of the Winter Wx Advisory for our Oregon Cascades until 10 AM. The temperature at Timberline Lodge actually rose to 38 deg F at 3 AM, indicating there is still a ways to go before snow levels lower to the Cascade passes. This delay could be very beneficial for those with plans to travel across the Cascades today - if the transition to snow occurs later this morning or during the midday hours, the roads may just remain wet or occasionally slushy due to the strong May solar energy (even with cloud cover). 09z RAP analysis suggests wet bulb zero heights below 5000 ft remain offshore, adding confidence to the delay in the lowering of snow levels. Despite 1-2 inches of QPF for the Cascade passes through Monday morning, snow accumulations should only amount to a few inches for the passes due to the marginal thermal profile and resulting low snow-to-liquid ratios. By far, the most significant deviations our forecast makes from NBM were in the snow-to-liquid ratios (SLRs). Our SLRs were largely based on the more reasonable WPC guidance, though we lowered the SLRs 10-15% from even the WPC guidance (and 30-40% below NBM guidance). This was necessary to get the SLRs below 10:1 for the passes, where NBM was showing SLRs in the 13:1 to 16:1 for the passes and even higher than that for higher elevations. Such SLRs would be difficult to achieve for the passes even in the middle of winter, much less the middle of spring. A relative lull in precipitation is possible Sunday night as the upper low and its deformation zone shift into the Rockies. However the next system and reinforcing cold front are likely to move onshore Monday morning, with post-frontal showers persisting through Tuesday. Temperatures and snow levels will remain below seasonal normal, with lowland highs stuck in the 50s through Tuesday. Weagle .LONG TERM...Tuesday through Friday...The long term forecast is highlighted by a rapid change in the weather pattern from cool and showery conditions Monday through Tuesday to much warmer and drier conditions late in the week. Models and their ensembles continue to show a shortwave trough moving across Washington and Oregon Monday into Tuesday, bringing a shift from westerly flow aloft to northwesterly behind the trough axis. This trough will bring the continuation of cool and showery weather with high temps mainly in the 50s and snow levels around 4000 ft on Monday falling to 3000 ft on Tuesday. Beyond Tuesday, confidence is high for a rapid shift in the weather pattern from cool and wet to warm and dry. This abrupt shift is the result of an upper level ridge that is set to build over the region, and all four clusters shown in WPC's cluster analysis depict this ridge with varying amplitudes. The deterministic NBM currently suggests highs in the 60s Wednesday, 70s Thursday (except 60s at the coast), and 80s Friday (except low 70s at the coast). The coolest model solutions are similar to the NBM 10th percentile, showing inland high temps only peaking in the mid 70s on Friday. Meanwhile, the warmest model solutions show highs near 90 degrees from Portland to Eugene. Either way, temps will be running above normal for this time of year. The probability for high temps at or above 80 degrees on Friday is already at 70-80% across the interior lowlands, which is quite high for a forecast that is seven days out. Overall, the warmest temps of the year so far are likely to occur next weekend. This may draw some people to area rivers and/or lakes, but keep in mind water temps are still very cold and river currents will be swift with mountain snowmelt. We plan on actively messaging cold water safety tips late next week in preparation for the warm weather ahead, as cold water shock and hypothermia will be a very real risk for anyone who decides to take a swim. -TK && .AVIATION...Widespread rain continues across the area today. Flight conditions remain quite variable from VFR to IFR. High confidence (60-80% chance) for MVFR conditions through this evening for inland areas, similar chance for IFR at coastal locations. If there is any trend, later this afternoon will transition to more westerly flow with chances for MVFR/IFR decreasing and chances for VFR increasing, but probably not enough to see prevailing VFR conditions. Wind generally less than 8 kts inland but coastal areas a little breezier with westerly winds 10-15 kt. PDX AND APPROACHES...MVFR expected to prevail through 22Z Sat-00Z Sun, but with around 30% chance for IFR conditions. Brief IFR cigs developed around 09Z Sat. Chances for IFR appear too low to include as prevailing, so for now will consider TEMPO group for short periods as needed. Winds generally light, variable early becoming southwest less then 10 kt. && .MARINE...Active weather pattern continues into early next week with series of troughs moving through the waters. Currently in between systems with weak high pressure over the waters. However with relatively short wave period and seas around 6 to 8 ft will have steep seas later this morning through this evening. So have issued a Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas. Next front arrives Sunday and bring gusts to 25 kt as well as steep seas across most of the waters Sunday morning through Sunday night. Following this front high pressure over the northeast Pacific will build over the waters and bring breezy west to northwest winds (gusting 20-25 kt) across the waters later Monday into Tuesday. The high pressure shifts closer to the waters later next week. /mh && .PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...Winter Weather Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 6 PM PDT Sunday for ORZ126>128. WA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 10 PM PDT this evening for PZZ251>253-271>273. && $$ www.weather.gov/portland Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSPortland www.twitter.com/NWSPortland ####018006542#### FXUS62 KMHX 041036 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 636 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A meandering cold front will linger over the area today before retreating northward on Sunday. Thereafter weak troughing across the Eastern Seaboard and warm moist southerly flow will lead to unsettled conditions through early next week. Drier conditions are expected by mid week, but will lead to increasing heat and humidity as ridging builds. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... As of 0400 Saturday...Ridging aloft persists through the near term with stalled front currently bisecting the FA over the Pamlico River and ample low level moisture has led to development of fog and stratus. Have opted to issue a dense fog advisory for the entire FA area through 12Z this morning. While every ob in the FA is not explicitly showing quarter mi VIS or less, the low level stratus will only help to decrease VIS. After sunrise, the fog will begin to dissipate, but the stratus will linger through much of the morning. Weak cold front will remain over ENC while becoming slightly more diffuse, but moving very little, with east/southeasterly flow expected most of the day. Most of the FA is expected to remain dry today save for our inland zones where showers and iso tstorms associated with a shortwave traveling NNEward from the Gulf states will pass over. Temperatures will remain above normal but a bit cooler than Friday with highs ranging from the upper 70s coast to mid 80s inland. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/... As of 0400 Saturday...Upper level ridge axis slides offshore this evening/tonight. Once the 850mb high slides offshore, moisture content increases through the column as flow in the lower levels becomes more SSEerly off the Atlantic, increasing PWATs back over an inch. Upper level precip support by way of shortwave approaching from the W allows showers to increase in coverage through the overnight. First, the stalled front will be the focus of precip, becoming more widespread in the early morning hours. Lows in the mid to upper 60s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As 315 AM Sat...Unsettled weather will continue for the first half of next week as weak troughing lingers over the East Coast and warm moist southerly flow develops. By mid next week drier conditions will return but will be accompanied by an increase in heat and humidity. Sunday through Tuesday...Winds will veer to the south Sunday and then SW Monday and Tuesday as high pressure rebuilds offshore through early next week. Despite this, a combination of weak troughing inland and deep moist southerly flow will bring fairly unsettled conditions through Tuesday. Showers and convection will be diurnally enhanced and will target the NC coastal plain the most with Monday and Tuesday likely having the greatest coverage. Temperatures will be cooler but still above normal with highs likely in the upper 70s to low 80s Sunday and Monday, and a bit warmer Tuesday...in the low to mid 80s. Wednesday through Friday...Drier conditions are expected mid week as upper level riding builds back over the Southeast. However, increasing low level thicknesses and continued southerly flow will lead to hot and humid conditions will afternoon highs reaching the upper 80s to low 90s inland, and the low to mid 80s closer to the coast. By late Thursday a potentially strong frontal system will move towards the East Coast and more unsettled conditions are expected through Friday. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... SHORT TERM /through Saturday/... As of 0630 Saturday...SubVFR flight cats this morning with fog/stratus in place. Fog is expected to dissipate by 13Z, but subVFR CIGs will linger due to stratus into at least the late morning with IFR CIGs lifting from W to E between 13-16Z and MVFR ceilings then lifting to VFR conditions by Sat afternoon. Could see an iso shower or tstm especially across ISO/PGV Sat afternoon as well. Chances of showers increases area wide overnight with inland TAF sites showing greatest potential for subVFR CIGs briefly overnight. LONG TERM /Sunday through Wednesday/... As of 315 AM Sat...Generally VFR conditions are expected through mid next week, however increasingly unsettled conditions could lead to moments of sub-VFR conditions each afternoon/evening. Dry and mostly clear conditions expected by Wednesday. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /through Saturday/... As of 0630 Saturday...Have expanded the dense fog advisory for coastal waters N of Hatt. Conditions will be monitored with potential of having to extend the advisory a little longer this morning. The rest of the forecast remains unchanged Previous Disco as of 0400...Dense fog advisory has been issued for all inland waters. There is fog over portions of the coastal waters as well, but no way to verify VIS so will have to wait for daybreak to make decision on whether or not a dense fog advisory will be needed offshore. Light and variable winds early become Eerly 10-15kt this afternoon. Recent buoy data shows seas generally 1-2ft with seas building to 3ft from N to S through the day to become 2-3ft everywhere with 4ft over outer waters, highest N and E of Hatt. Showers and tstorms possible this evening into the overnight hours. LONG TERM /Sunday through Wednesday/... As of 315 AM Sat...Decent boating conditions are expected this weekend with slightly worsening conditions developing early next week. Winds will come around to the south of Sunday at 5-15 kts, and continue to veer to the SW by Monday at 10-15 kts. SW winds will then increase to 15-20 kts Monday night through Wednesday and could occasionally gust to 25 kts. Seas will be generally 2-4 ft through Monday and then increase to 3-5 ft Tuesday and Wednesday. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for NCZ029- 044>047-079>081-090>092-094-193>196-198-199-203>205. MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for AMZ131- 135>137-150-152-230-231. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...CEB SHORT TERM...CEB LONG TERM...SGK AVIATION...SGK/CEB MARINE...SGK/CEB ####018007619#### FXUS61 KPHI 041036 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 636 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure over New England will maintain an onshore flow through the next few days. A series of cold fronts approaches from the west through the weekend, with the second (and stronger of the two) front stalling out nearby by early next week. The stalled front lifts north as a warm front at some point in the Tuesday/Wednesday timeframe, bringing a return to above normal temperatures. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Scattered showers continue over portions of Delmarva, though lightning has ended, and showers are not producing the brief downpours they did earlier. These showers will continue to wind down this morning. The base of high pressure centered over New England extends down into the Mid-Atlantic. An old warm front lies over the Appalachians, and a cold front is moving through the Great Lakes and into the Ohio Valley. High pressure slowly lifts to the north and east throughout the day today and into tonight. Several shortwaves will approach from the west, pushing those frontal boundaries towards the local forecast area. Some marine stratus will continue to spread over portions of New Jersey and southern Delaware. That stratus will dissipate later this morning, but skies remain cloudy through the day as showers continue to develop well west of the region. Those showers will slowly track east, not making it into the far western portions of the forecast area until late in the afternoon and early evening. A cool day with highs in the 50s to low 60s, which will be some 10 to 15 degrees below normal for this time of year. Best chances for showers will be during the overnight period tonight, mainly for inland areas as those frontal boundaries wash out as they approach. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... A cold front approaches from the west on Sunday. With a slower approach, showers will mainly be north and west of the Philly metro through the morning, before pushing over the rest of the area through the afternoon and evening. The marine airmass in place will keep things stable, and really not expecting much in terms of thunder or heavy rainfall Sunday/Sunday night. Rainfall amounts will generally be around a quarter to three quarters of an inch of rain, spread out over a rather large period, so not expecting much in terms of hydro concerns. Temperatures will be in the upper 50s/low 60s, though some spots in the Delmarva will get into the upper 60s/low 70s. Temperatures won't drop much on Sunday Night, likely staying in the 50s. For Monday, temperatures moderate as a weak west/southwesterly flow takes over. The first of several shortwaves next week is expected to traverse the area, with some showers and thunderstorms potentially developing in the afternoon and evening. Some of the model soundings show decent instability with marginal shear, so can't rule out a strong to severe thunderstorm late Monday. However, not expecting the threat to be widespread at all. Will continue to monitor as we get in range of CAM guidance. Best chance to see any convection will be over Delmarva and southern New Jersey. Temperatures will be in the upper 70s/low 80s on Monday with mid to upper 50s/low 60s on Monday Night. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Unsettled conditions are expected for most of the week as a rather progressive pattern will be in place. Several shortwaves are expected to pass over the region. Lift will also be aided by a stalled boundary bisecting the area that will meander for the middle and end of next week. The front looks to venture northward on Tuesday into Wednesday, resulting in a period of above normal temperatures with upper 70s/low 80s expected. With a relatively warm and moist airmass in place, incoming shortwaves could potentially spark some showers and thunderstorms Tuesday/Wednesday PM. Wednesday afternoon/evening looks to be the most active in terms of convective weather, though too early to see if severe weather is on the table. The stalled boundary retreats southward towards the end of the week with onshore flow likely taking over, at least along the coastal plain. Depending on where this stalled boundary sets up will have implications on temperatures and thunderstorm potential on Thursday/Friday. Areas near and east of the front will be under the influence of the marine layer with cooler and more stable air, while areas west of the boundary are more unstable with warmer temperatures. A deepening trough will begin to move into the Mid- Atlantic, with a series of shortwaves/frontal systems moving through both Thursday/Friday. Both days will feature temperatures near/below normal, depending on where this lingering boundary sets up. Important to note that there remains a lot of uncertainty with the long-term forecast as models tend to struggle with a progressive pattern like this, and the placement of this boundary that will hang around through next week. As mentioned before, where that boundary sets up will have large implications on the forecast. We look to potentially shake this unsettled pattern once a sweeping cold front comes through late next week/early next weekend. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. Today...Any MVFR CIGs this morning will lift to VFR by 14Z, though MVFR conditions at KACY will remain MVFR for most of today. MVFR CIGs will spread from west to east starting at KRDG/KABE around midday, then MVFR CIGs will spread towards KACY prior to 00Z. SHRA arrive at KRDG/KABE prior to 00Z as well. E to SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Moderate confidence. Tonight...IFR conditions in stratus/BR/SHRA tonight. E winds 5 to 10 kt. Low confidence. Outlook... Sunday through Sunday Night...MVFR/IFR conditions expected with low ceilings. Reduced visibility likely with showers. Monday through Monday Night...Conditions gradually improve as the day goes on, likely back to VFR, though some showers/thunderstorms develop for the afternoon/evening, with restrictions possible if any storms move over the terminals. Tuesday through Tuesday Night...Primarily VFR though some restrictions possible with 20-40% chance of SHRA. Wednesday...Sub-VFR conditions possible (30-50%) with scattered showers/thunderstorms expected, especially in the afternoon/evening. && .MARINE... Sub-Small Craft Advisory conditions on tap today and tonight with E to SE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt and 3 to 4 ft seas. There is the potential for localized marine dense fog early this morning for areas south of Little Egg Inlet. Otherwise, mostly cloudy. Some showers may result in VSBY restrictions tonight. Outlook... Sunday through Wednesday...No long-fused marine headlines anticipated, though periods of showers/thunderstorms possible on the waters. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hoeflich NEAR TERM...MPS SHORT TERM...Hoeflich LONG TERM...Hoeflich AVIATION...Hoeflich/MPS MARINE...Hoeflich/MPS ####018005260#### FXUS64 KMRX 041036 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 636 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 313 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024 Key Messages: 1. Numerous showers and thunderstorms expected this afternoon, mainly across eastern mountain and foothill areas near the TN/NC line. 2. Drier tonight with more isolated convection due to shortwave ridging, but this is expected to be short lived as another trough moves east across the Lower Mississippi Valley. Discussion: Weak troughing across the region will continue to result in southerly flow and periods of showers and thunderstorms. The most widespread coverage is expected during the afternoon hours when instability is at its peak. The greatest coverage is also expected east of the trough axis which will place highest PoPs near our far eastern counties across the mountains near the TN/NC state line through southwest Virginia. Some locally heavy rain rates will be possible with PW values near the 90th percentile, but overall, the flash flood risk is very low. Shortwave ridging arrives tonight as the trough axis shifts east and another shortwave troughing moves into the Lower Mississippi Valley. Temperatures remain near normal today and tonight. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Saturday) Issued at 313 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024 Key Messages: 1. Scattered to numerous showers and storms are expected each day through at least Thursday with more organized convection possible Wednesday to Thursday. 2. Temperatures will be generally above normal through Thursday. Sunday through Tuesday At the start of the period, fairly weak flow will be in place aloft with a shortwave ejecting out of the Southern Plains. Warm conditions and abundant moisture will be present across much of the southeast. During the day, the shortwave will continue to progress eastward with downstream ridging allowing for warmer conditions across the region. Surface heating will lead to development of showers and storms, especially across the higher elevations in the afternoon hours. The overall environment will consist of minimal shear and fairly low-end instability, i.e. MLCAPE of near or above 500 J/kg. Sunday night into Monday morning, the aforementioned shortwave will approach the area from the west and begin to flatten, which will be sufficient for more widespread showers and storms. Based on the timing, instability will remain fairly limited as surface heating will be capped by convection and cloud cover early in the day. On Tuesday, ridging will return and will lead to warmer conditions once again. A strengthening upper jet will be noted to the northwest and will be slowly progressing eastward. This will help to increase the flow throughout the layer and promote a more veered wind profile. Current data suggests MLCAPE at or above 1,000 J/kg with more notable deep-layer shear, which would support better organization to convection than in previous days. Wednesday through Friday By Wednesday, the aforementioned northern jet will remain across the same area with a southern jet strengthening to in excess of 100 kts. A surface frontal boundary will also be located across the Plains. This will provide a broader divergent pattern aloft and 850mb flow possibly reaching 40 kts by the evening and into Thursday while the frontal boundary approaches from the northwest. Models are suggesting a potential MCS moving into the area from late Wednesday into Thursday morning, which would be supported by the overall pattern. In any case, convection during this timeframe would likely be even more organized than on Tuesday. This timeframe will definitely be something to watch as confidence increases, but low probability HWO wording will be maintained for to encompass this event and repeated convection earlier in the period. By Friday, the front is likely to move through the area, which, combined with height falls, will promote cooler conditions. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 634 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024 An area of showers and a few thunderstorms will impact the TYS terminal over the next few hours. Chances of showers and thunderstorms will be highest at TRI this afternoon with at least vcts at all sites. Temporary IFR conditions will be possible within heavier rain showers or thunderstorms. After 0z, convection is expected to decrease in areal coverage. Winds today will be generally light with gusty winds in the vicinity of thunderstorms. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Chattanooga Airport, TN 80 65 85 66 / 60 40 40 50 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 77 62 82 64 / 70 40 50 40 Oak Ridge, TN 78 62 83 64 / 70 40 50 40 Tri Cities Airport, TN 75 60 79 60 / 90 60 60 40 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...JB LONG TERM....BW AVIATION...JB ####018006431#### FXUS61 KALY 041037 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 637 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure along the New England coast will provide continued dry conditions through today. The high will remain nearly stationary through this evening, with a frontal system slowly approaching from the west tonight. Clouds will gradually increase and thicken, with chances for showers developing west of the Hudson Valley mainly after midnight. Showers will become widespread by Sunday as the system tracks east across the area with cool temperatures. Dry and warmer conditions are expected on Monday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... .UPDATE...Main change was to increase PoPs across the western Adirondacks into this morning based on current radar trends showing scattered light showers associated with a weak disturbance. Observations indicating only Trace to 0.01" amounts. These showers should dissipate by later this morning though and mid/upper level ridging becomes re-established. The rest of the area should remain dry. Temperatures are in the 40s to lower 50s to start the day. .PREV DISCUSSION[0326]...Other than a few light showers or sprinkles across the far NW Adirondacks early this morning, dry conditions will persist. Mid level clouds continue to gradually increase from the west. Latest trends in guidance indicate surface high pressure remaining positioned along the New England through this evening. Ridging aloft will also be in place during this time. So arrival of showers have been slowed even further, with the day/evening now expected to be mainly dry. A few light/brief showers will be possible for areas well west of the Hudson Valley this evening. Otherwise it should be dry with thickening mid level clouds. There is expected to be periods of clouds with occasional breaks of sunshine through this afternoon. So high temperatures should be slightly above normal again, with mid 60s to lower 70s expected across much of the area. Chances for showers will then increase overnight west of the Hudson Valley, with the upper ridge axis starting to break down as a short wave moves in from the west. It will be dry with overcast skies from the Hudson Valley east. Again with the slower trends, will only mention slight/chance PoPs through tonight. Lows will be mainly in the 40s to around 50. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Cool, raw and damp conditions will occur on Sunday. Widespread showers will move across the entire area, as forcing increases substantially with isentropic lift strengthening on the 290-295K surfaces. Strengthening southerly flow ahead of a slow moving front approaching from the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley regions will allow deep layer moisture to increase with PWAT anomalies rising to +1 to +2 STDEV. The short wave trough aloft will also be moving eastward across the region enhancing ascent. With clouds/showers around and a persistent low level S-SE breeze, highs will only reach the 50s with even some 40s in the highest elevations. Showers will likely persist into Sun evening, as the surface front gradually approaches from the west with isentropic lift continuing. Will mention likely/categorical PoPs through the evening. The front looks to push through overnight into early Mon morning, with showers tapering off from NW to SE. Total rainfall expected to be 0.25-0.50" from around Albany south/east, with 0.50-1.00" north/west(greatest amounts upper Mohawk Valley and SW Adirondacks). The rainfall should not result in any hydro concerns. Drying conditions expected on Mon, as the front clears the area and surface high pressure starts to build east from the Great Lakes. Winds will shift to the W-NW, with PWATs lowering through the day. After morning clouds, sunshine should appear during the afternoon. With a well-mixed environment and relatively mild temperatures aloft, highs should be quite mild ranging from mid/upper 60s in the mountains to lower/mid 70s in the valleys. High pressure builds east into our region Mon night, providing dry/tranquil conditions. Lows look to be in the 40s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Fair weather with warm temperatures for Tuesday as weak mid level ridge traverses the region. Highs in the 70s for most valley areas except 65-70 for higher terrain areas. Unsettled conditions then return for Wednesday through Friday, as a series of fast moving upper level disturbances pass through. This should bring plenty of clouds along with several bouts of rain or showers, perhaps with some embedded thunderstorms at times. Temperatures will be near to below normal during this period, with highs mainly in the mid 60s to around 70, although could be much cooler if steady rain occurs, with overnight lows mainly in the mid 40s to lower 50s. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Through 06z/Sun...VFR conditions are expected through Saturday evening, with some MVFR Cigs possibly developing after 04Z/Sun at KPSF, KPOU and perhaps KALB. Otherwise, patchy mid level clouds will increase late tonight through Saturday. Lower clouds are then expected to develop after 20Z/Sat, with Cigs 4000-6000 FT AGL, possibly dropping to 2000-3000 FT AGL after 04Z/Sun. Light/variable winds are expected through daybreak, though may remain south to southeast at 5-10 KT at KALB. Southeast to south winds will increase to 5-10 KT at all TAF sites by mid morning Saturday and continue into Saturday evening. A few gusts of 15-20 KT may occur at KALB during this time. Outlook... Sunday: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA. Sunday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA. Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Wednesday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JPV NEAR TERM...JPV SHORT TERM...JPV LONG TERM...KL AVIATION...KL ####018005670#### FXUS62 KILM 041038 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 638 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Scattered showers and thunderstorms will occur this weekend due to several upper level disturbances and interactions of weak surface fronts and the daily sea breeze. Dry High pressure will build overhead by Tuesday with well above normal temperatures likely during the middle and late portions of next week. Rain chances increase towards the end of next week due to an approaching frontal system. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Early this morning, will deal with areas of fog with patchy dense mainly across the inland Southeast NC portions of the FA. SPS already issued to accommodate the patchy dense. High level and some mid level clouds will combine to keep fog development minimal across Northeast SC. Some of these clouds will filter across Southeast NC, likely helping to keep the fog from expanding and becoming widespread dense. Mid-level ridge axis will slide eastward, off the Carolina Coasts today thru tonight. This will allow some further moistening of the atm with an increase in PWs to 1.6+ inches inland, ie. along and west of I-95 corridor, and up to 1.2 inches at the coast. The further eastward moving of the upper ridge will allow the 1.5+ pws to reach the coast later tonight. We'll have the moisture, now a closer movement east of the frontal boundary. In addition, today's inland sea breeze movement will flare up convection ahead of it but the stable layer in its wake will negate pcpn development. For the most part, the coast will stay dry and the inland counties will carry the threat, with the hier POPs along and west of the I-95 corridor. Later tonight, a mid-level s/w trof will approach from the SW with an increase in POPs overspreading the entire ILM CWA, especially closer to the coast, late in the pre-dawn Sun hrs. Max temps today, actually running near or slightly above normal. Tonights lows running above normal, with a few coastal locations seeing upper 60s to near 70. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Unsettled weather increases on Sunday with a weak frontal boundary still stalled west of the I-95 corridor and moisture advection overspreading the area. Weak shortwave energy coinciding with afternoon heating should produce scattered showers and thunderstorms. Remaining unsettled on Monday, especially along the sea breeze which will be bolstered by increasing southerly flow. An approaching shortwave Monday night into Tuesday will keep showers and storms in the forecast overnight. Highs in the low 80s and overnight lows in the mid 60s each day. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Weak ridging builds behind the shortwave on Tuesday, but warmer temperatures will produce better instability. A few afternoon storms are possible, but with much less coverage than previous days. High temperatures in the mid and upper 80s will be the start of a warming trend through Thursday. Ridging amplifies during the middle of the week. Expect above normal temperatures with afternoon highs in the low to mid 90s. SW winds will pin the sea breeze near the coast, keeping coastal sites above normal as well. Watching the next chance for showers and thunderstorms on Friday ahead of an upper low and associated cold front. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Looking at VFR/MVFR conditions thru 13Z, due to fog and possibly bkn 025 ceiling. Otherwise, mid to upper level clouds to dominate for much of this 24 hr period. Guidance indicates possible convection across the inland terminals this aftn and early evening and will indicate with VCTS, this followed by prob30 for -shra thru the evening for again the inland terminals. Have also indicated VCSH to overspread the area during the pre-dawn Sun hrs, from SW to NE, aided by a mid- level s/w trof tracking toward and partially across the northeast SC area. Ceilings may also drop to MVFR as a result of the pcpn. Winds generally 130-170 degrees at 4 to 8 kt, around 10 kt at the coastal terminals at the height of the sea breeze. Extended Outlook...Scattered convection will bring periodic visibility and ceiling restrictions Sun into Mon. Otherwise, looking at VFR dominating outside the pcpn and becoming the mainstay Tue into Wed. && .MARINE... Through Tonight...Benign wind and sea conditions will continue thru tonight courtesy of a relaxed sfc pg due to weak offshore high pressure. Winds generally SE-SSE around 10 kt thru the period. Seas generally 2 ft or less, mainly dominated by a E-SE 7 to 9 second period wave. Sea breeze could push winds within 10 nm of the coast to around 15 kt this aftn and early evening. Sunday through Wednesday Night...Winds become southerly on Sunday and increase to 10-15 knots. Slightly stronger near the coast with the assistance of a developing sea breeze. Winds turn SW on Monday and increase in response to a tighter pressure gradient. Gusts up to 20 knots are expected, but conditions should remain sub-SCA. Seas 2- 3 feet early this week increase to 3-4 feet during the middle portion of next week. Low impact easterly swell will continue through the period. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ILM NEAR TERM...DCH SHORT TERM...21 LONG TERM...21 AVIATION...DCH MARINE...DCH/21 ####018006087#### FXUS63 KSGF 041039 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 539 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Thunderstorms will move in from the west this morning around 5-7 AM. Some storms could be strong to severe, especially over far southwestern MO. Expect rain to dissipate around 7-9 PM. - A Marginal Risk of severe weather has been issued over the area today and storms will be capable of quarter-sized hail and up to 60 mph winds with heavy rain. - Widespread rainfall will occur on Sunday with localized flooding possible. Severe weather expected Monday night into Tuesday, especially for areas west of Hwy 65. SPC has those areas in a Slight Risk for severe weather on Monday. - Unsettled weather will persist through much of the 7 day forecast. Rainfall during this period may be between 1 and 3 inches which may lead to localized flooding. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 326 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024 Today: MCS moving through southern KS will make its way into MO within the next couple of hours. MCS appears to be moving a little bit faster than what the 00z CAMs expected. The storms will be at their strongest as they cross over the KS/MO border. Our area is in a Marginal Risk for severe weather today, so storms can be expected to be strong to severe. Far southwestern MO will be the most favorable environment for severe thunderstorms to occur this morning with MUCAPE values of 1100-1300 J/kg and mid- level lapse rates around 7-8 C/km. 0-6km shear will only be around 25-35 knots as this system passes through. The MCS will weaken as it pushes further east through MO into a less favorable environment. Mostly cloudy skies will persist through the day and highs will be in the 70s for most of the area with the exception of highs in the lower 80s for southeast MO. Cold front moves through this afternoon and a few CAMs hint at the front providing enough lift to create some isolated thunderstorms this evening. Though, this will be highly dependent on what convection does this morning and how quickly it can push out of here in order for us to destabilize this afternoon again before the front comes through. Kept 20-30% POPs for areas mostly south of I-44 through the evening and night as scattered showers are forecast to form ahead of another MCS moving just to our south in OK overnight. Sunday: Mid-level shortwave trough brings another MCS to the Plains. This MCS is expected to bring more widespread rain to the area for most of the day. SPC only has us in a general risk for severe weather which means any thunderstorms that do develop, are expected to remain sub-severe. Highs will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Rain finally begins to taper off Sunday night. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 326 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024 A rather active pattern remains in the forecast for the next week with multiple rounds of thunderstorms, some severe, and rainfall through the end of next week. Monday - Tuesday: A strongly negatively tilted upper trough will move across the plains and swing a strongly forecast cold front through the region Monday night into Tuesday morning. SPC has already issued an Enhanced Risk over NE/KS/OK, with a Slight Risk over our western counties mainly for areas west of highway 65. Also worth noting, there is a hatched area (10% or greater probability of significant severe weather) that includes our two western rows of counties. This would include the Fort Scott down to Pittsburg, KS area over to the Nevada down to Anderson areas. The Ozarks will be in the warm sector ahead of this system with some models indicating as much as 2000-3000 J/kg of CAPE in advance of the front with mid level (40-50kt) and upper level jet support. The combination of instability and shear will bring the chance for severe weather to the region as a result through Tuesday morning. Once storms push through the region, a warm front will quickly lift back to the north through the Ozarks as low pressure develops in the plains. Wednesday- Friday: Both the CSU/CIPS and SPC output continues the potential for additional severe storms for the middle of next week. The indications for Thursday and Friday are rather uncertain as the multiple rounds of storms a changing upper level pattern limits rain chances. With the multiple days where rain is possible wide spread 1 to 3 inch rain amounts will be possible through the forecast period. This may lead to at least localized flooding for areas that have already seen ample rainfall. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 537 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024 Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected today. Storms have already moved into western portions of the region early this morning along an outflow boundary. Chances for rain will diminish this evening before returning late tonight into Sunday. Primarily looking for VFR conditions today, with potential for MVFR to IFR conditions tonight. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 205 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Over the past 7-10 days, most of the Ozarks has seen significant rainfall with some locations receiving as much as a foot of rain (Vernon and Bourbon(KS) Counties). With multiple rounds of showers and storms forecast over the next 7 days, localized flooding and additional rises on area rivers and streams will be possible. Current forecasts are from from 1 to 3 inches with local higher amounts of rainfall through the period. Several area rivers remain elevated or above flood stage and these will be monitored through the period. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Soria LONG TERM...Soria AVIATION...Titus HYDROLOGY...Hatch