####018006544#### FXUS61 KPBZ 260801 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 401 AM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Dry and warmer today. The risk for showers returns late tonight and Saturday. Big warmup expected Sunday and Monday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... KEY MESSAGES: - Dry and warmer today ------------------------------------------------------------------ Upper level height rises today as an amplified ridge axis moves across the Upper Midwest. Surface high pressure will drift across the New England States this morning. Low-level flow on the backside the high may push some moisture back over the region this morning. Seeing some differences in the possible cloud cover from this moisture. The NBM keeps the highest probabilities of total cloud cover bottled up on the eastern side of the ridges, showing around 10% prob for >50% cloud cover west of the ridges. HREF is more bullish with cloud cover particularly later this morning and into the afternoon. Indicating around 60% prob of >50% cloud cover. Will lean toward the NBM solution as it did a good job with yesterday's persistent cloud cover. Increased warm air advection will nudge highs back above normal today. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/... KEY MESSAGES: - Showers late tonight and Saturday with a warm front - Warmer Sunday with an isolated shower/storm possible in the afternoon ---------------------------------------------------------------- Upper level ridge axis will slowly move through Ohio tonight and then across the rest of the forecast area on Saturday. A surface warm front will trail just behind the axis and push northward through the region late tonight and Saturday morning. Showers will accompany the passing boundary. Rainfall looks to be light with NBM probs of >0.1 inches around 30 to 40% tonight and 20 to 30% Saturday morning. The highest probs are generally over the I-80 corridor through the period. Showers should end late Saturday morning or early afternoon as the front will move well north of the region. Thunderstorm chances appear minimal as forecast soundings show little to no instability and a strong low level inversion. Warm air advection is anticipated behind the boundary, so temperatures will continue to moderate on Saturday. A limiting factor for highs on Saturday will be cloud cover behind the front associated with a shortwave trough that will push the morning ridge east of the area. Strong height rises return Saturday night and an impressive ridge will take hold over the region on Sunday. A weak shortwave will try and sneak over top of the ridge bringing a small increase in shower/storm chances Sunday afternoon. The area with the highest probs for measurable precipitation will be north of Pittsburgh where 30 to 40% probs for >0.01 inches rest. With such a strong ridge, and forecast soundings showing a cap, it should be difficult for much activity to develop. Warm air advection will continue on Sunday and temperatures will rise into the 80s across much of the district. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... KEY MESSAGES: - Warm with minimal chances of afternoon thunderstorms Monday. - More widespread showers and possible thunderstorms with a Tuesday cold front. ------------------------------------------------------------------- Model ensembles continue to indicate a strong ridge Monday. The ridge axis is expected to shift slowly eastward later in the day, with slightly better chances for afternoon showers and thunderstorms as a shortwave trough, and associated surface cold front, begin to approach from the Midwest. Temperatures mainly in the 80-85 degree range (outside of the higher terrain) are expected Monday. Showers are likely, along with a few thunderstorms, on Tuesday as the trough and cold front cross the region. The precipitation should end Tuesday night as the front exits. By Wednesday, one thing is more certain; the ridge amplitude will decrease. Clustered variability of the 500mb pattern sits anywhere between a weak 500mb trough to a weak 500mb ridge. This ridge breakdown may lean towards more unsettled weather. Late next week, a central CONUS ridge may develop (shown in 3 out of 4 clusters). Should it develop, it is favored to move east (as shown in 2 out of 3 clusters) and allow warmer-than- normal temperatures to continue through next weekend. Some alternate scenarios include 1) the ridge not developing, whereby temperature would remain closer to normal in zonal flow and 2) the ridge develops but does not move east and enforces eastern troughing, which would keep temperatures below normal. && .AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR is expected through this evening as the center of surface high pressure moves east of the region. CU rule and model soundings indicate scattered diurnal CU developing after sunrise, as convective temperatures are reached. These should dissipate by evening, though mid level cloud cigs will be increasing ahead of an approaching warm front. A few showers are expected toward the end of the 30 hr TAF period at PIT, though VFR should continue. Wind will veer overnight from N to ESE by morning. Speeds will increase after sunrise, with some downsloping gusts around 20kt at LBE and DUJ. .Outlook... Showers and restrictions are likely on Saturday with the passage of the warm front. The highest SREF probabilities of persistent MVFR are currently north of PIT. VFR is then expected Saturday night through Monday as a ridge builds across the region, though an isolated afternoon thunderstorm is possible Sunday mainly north of PIT. More widespread restrictions in showers and thunderstorms are expected with a Tuesday cold front. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for PAZ007-013-014- 020-022-077-078. Freeze Warning until 9 AM EDT this morning for PAZ008-009-015- 016. OH...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for OHZ039>041- 048>050-057>059-068-069. WV...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for WVZ001. && $$ SYNOPSIS...22 NEAR TERM...22 SHORT TERM...22 LONG TERM...22/Milcarek AVIATION...WM ####018008058#### FXUS61 KBUF 260801 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 401 AM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Canadian high pressure centered over eastern New York and western New England will slide east to the New England coastline today...and will provide us with a fine spring day to close out the work week. After a chilly start...temperatures will quickly rebound into the upper 50s and 60s as a return flow of milder air develops around the departing high. The warming trend will then continue over the weekend and into early next week...resulting in late spring to summerlike warmth engulfing our region both Sunday and Monday. While there will also be a few showers and thunderstorms around, particularly during Saturday, a fair amount of dry time can also be expected. A cold front will then bring our next chance for more widespread showers and a few thunderstorms as it crosses our region Monday night and Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Sprawling Canadian high pressure centered over eastern New York and western New England will drift further east to the New England coastline today...while keeping fair dry weather intact across our region. While there could be some very thin/spotty high clouds...as well as very some limited afternoon diurnal cumulus across far western New York...these will not mar what will again be abundant amounts of sunshine. With a return flow of milder air setting up on the backside of the departing high...temps will rebound rather nicely after a chilly start...with highs climbing back to the upper 50s across the North Country and to the lower to mid 60s elsewhere. This said...an ENE flow off Lake Ontario will help to keep temps along the south shore of that lake confined to the 50s. Tonight the surface high will remain anchored just offshore of the New England coast...while sharp upper-level ridging builds across New York State. Meanwhile further west...an initial cutter-type low will weaken as it tracks from the central Plains states to the Upper Mississippi Valley. As it does so...this system will push its attendant warm front east toward our region...where it will run smack up against the strong ridging that we'll have in place aloft. With this in mind...it comes as no surprise that the guidance suite continues to trend slower and weaker with the approaching front... with this feature now appearing to advance east slowly enough to merely bring a general west-east in mid and high cloud cover to most areas tonight...with perhaps the chance of a shower reaching Chautauqua county late. Otherwise the night should remain dry...and will feature considerably milder temperatures than the previous couple nights as a southeasterly return flow of milder air strengthens across our region. Expect lows to range from the upper 30s across the North Country to near 50 along the Lake Erie shoreline...where downsloping will provide an added boost to temps...and may also allow winds to gust to 30-35 mph during the second half of the night. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... An upper level trough will dig across the Northern Plains, with a series of diffuse surface lows forecast to track to our north and west during the weekend. A warm front extending from the the first wave of low pressure will move across our region from southwest to northeast on Saturday. The front will weaken late Saturday as it gets further from the surface low. This front will likely bring some showers to the region on Saturday, but the day should be far from a washout. The day will be mostly cloudy with a few hours of showers in some spots, but otherwise warmer with highs in the upper 50s to upper 60s with the warmest locations downwind of the Chautauqua Ridge near the Lake Erie shoreline. Southerly flow will maintain above normal temperatures throughout the weekend. 850mb warm up to +12/13 C which will support high temperatures well above normal in the 70s to lower 80s on Sunday. The combination of the warmer temperatures and the lingering synoptic lift from the lingering/stalled cold front to the north of the area, will support diurnally driven instability and afternoon showers/thunderstorms. A mid-level ridge axis will cross the area Sunday night supporting dry weather Sunday night. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Departing upper level ridge will maintain mainly rain-free weather for Monday, with only a slight chance of an instability shower or thunderstorm. Monday will almost feel summer-like with highs reaching 80F at many locations. Low pressure tracking across the central Great Lakes and into Ontario province will push a cold front across the region on Tuesday. Warm and moist air mass in place will result in ample instability to support thunderstorms with the frontal passage, especially Tuesday afternoon and early evening. After this, forecast confidence decreases with a wider range in the way model guidance handles a series of weak frontal boundaries. In general there's a small chance of showers Wednesday and Thursday, focused during afternoon/evening hours corresponding to diurnal heating. It will be a bit cooler, but temperatures will still remain above normal during this time. && .AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Canadian high pressure centered over eastern New York and western New England will slide to the New England coastline today...while providing us with continued fair dry weather. While there could be some very thin/spotty high clouds...as well as very some limited afternoon diurnal cumulus across far western New York...these will not prevent a continuation of unlimited VFR conditions right through 00z Saturday. Tonight weakening low pressure will make its way from Nebraska to Minnesota...while pushing its attendant warm front toward our region. While this will bring a general west-to-east increase in mid and high cloud cover along with a chance of showers to extreme far southwestern New York late...flight conditions will remain VFR. Outlook... Saturday...VFR/MVFR with some showers likely and an isolated thunderstorm possible. Sunday and Monday...Mainly VFR with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Monday night and Tuesday...MVFR/VFR with showers becoming likely along with a chance of thunderstorms. && .MARINE... Canadian high pressure centered across eastern New York and western New England will slide further east to the New England coastline today...with a general easterly to northeasterly flow continuing across the lower Great Lakes. On Lake Ontario winds will be more easterly...and will become strong enough to bring advisory-level conditions to the portions of the lake west of Rochester this afternoon and evening. Meanwhile on Lake Erie...winds will back to northeasterly and increase to 10-15 knots once again...resulting in the redevelopment of a moderate chop. Tonight and Saturday the high will remain anchored off the New England coast...while low pressure tracks from the central Plains to central Ontario. This will result in winds across the Lower Lakes veering to southeast and then south while strengthening later tonight into Saturday...though the increasingly offshore nature of the flow will help to direct the greatest wave action across Canadian waters. As a result...conditions are expected to remain below advisory criteria. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 11 PM EDT this evening for LOZ042. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JJR NEAR TERM...JJR SHORT TERM...Apffel LONG TERM...Apffel/Thomas AVIATION...JJR MARINE...JJR ####018007564#### FXUS64 KLZK 260801 AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 301 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday Night) Issued at 258 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024 Regional mesoanalysis indicated a wrmfrnt draped acrs the Srn half of the FA, and extended N/Wwrd towards a sfc low center, located over Ern CO/Wrn KS. Regional mosaic radar imgry depicted incrsg covg of weak showers acrs Ern OK and Wrn AR, invof the frnt. Thru the day today, the aforementioned sfc low and asctd upper shortwave trof should quickly lift N/Wrd, w/ broad Srly flow acrs an expansive warm sector overspreading the Srn Cntrl US and greater area of the Mid-South. Scattered and elevated convective activity is expected to be ongoing around the Wrn to N/Wrn periphery of the FA thru the pre-dawn hrs and into the later mrng hrs Fri mrng... Though given the strong isentropic ascent/moisture transport, some precip covg acrs portions of the FA cannot be ruled out later on this mrng. Modest destabilization is still favored acrs the region today though, w/ 1500-2000 J/kg of MUCAPE progged b/w 22-00Z tonight, overlaid by modest deep-layer shear. More prominent convective development is currently progged acrs Ern OK along an advancing dryline later Fri, most lkly during the early evng hrs. Discrete cells, including supercells wl be favored, w/ bulk shear vectors largely perpendicular to the bndry, and should support maintenance of supercells and supercell clusters as convective activity moves Ewrd into AR later this evng. If discrete cells are still mainly prevalent as activity approaches the FA, an incrsg tornado threat may arise, as LLWS should bcm more favorable near 00Z and later, with the development of a LLJ. Large hail and damaging winds may also accompany any ongoing supercells this evng, and a greater damaging wind threat can be anticipated if more storm mergers occur and upscale growth into linear complexes is observed. Confidence is not great attm regarding the duration of the severe wx threat beyond 00Z... if storms quickly become detached from the more favorable near-surface layer, and elevated, the severe threat would greatly decrease by 03-06Z Fri night. In addition to the severe threat, some locally heavy rainfall w/ supercells wl be possible as well, and isolated instances of flooding issues may arise through tonight acrs the N/Wrn portions of the FA. Sat, a moisture-rich warm sector wl remain in place over the Srn Cntrl US, overlaid by mean S/Wrly upper flow as a broad longwave trof advances acrs the S/Wrn US. Scattered precip, including thunderstorms wl remain in the fcst for much of the local area on Sat, w/ temps beginning to trend upwards to above normal readings. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 258 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024 The beginning of the long-term forecast period on Sunday begins amidst an unsettled weather pattern. An upper lvl closed low will be over the Central Plains with a resultant trof and 500 mb jet axis of 70-90+ knot winds that will be placed over Oklahoma and Arkansas with part of the CWA in the right front entrance region promoting strong ascent. At the sfc, a deepening sfc low pressure center will be positioned across Kansas with an attendant southward extending cold front that will be across eastern Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas by Sunday afternoon. In tandem with the sfc feature, a sfc high pressure center will be fixated over the Mid-Atlantic region of the CONUS which will provide a funneling effect of broad warm sector across the state with strong southerly winds ahead of the advancing cold front that will advect warm temperatures into the region in the low to mid 80's along with moisture-rich air as dewpoint temperatures will be in the low to mid 60s across that state. The parameter space across the state of Arkansas on Sunday will be primed for all modes of severe weather including large hail, severe wind gusts, and a few tornadoes cannot be ruled out. Expect the possibility of strong and severe thunderstorms on Sunday. Unfortunately, Monday through Thursday will keep the rain and isolated thunderstorm chances in the forecast as the cold front attempts to track across Arkansas on Monday, but becomes a stationary front into the day on Tuesday stalling out across northern Arkansas. At the moment, severe weather chances remain unforeseen on Monday and Tuesday, but continued rainfall will keep the possibility of flash flooding a concern. During mid-week on Wednesday and Thursday, a cold front will approach the Natural State from the northwest, but remain across Kansas, Missouri, and Illinois. However, the sfc feature will be close enough to the CWA to keep rain and isolated thunderstorms in the forecast through Thursday. Wednesday appears to be the most dry opportunity with lower POPs overall, but the presence of several storm systems and their attendant boundaries in close proximity to the state will keep POP chances in the long-term forecast overall. The day that does warrant the most attention given this current forecast package in the long-term period is definitely Sunday when the parameter space across Arkansas will be favorable for severe weather. Flash flooding will continue to be a concern throughout the entire long-term forecast period with the possibility of some minor river flooding within certain basins as increased rainfall over this period appears likely. Temperatures over the long-term forecast period will continue to be above normal compared to climatological normals for both low and high temperatures. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1225 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024 Widespread high to mid-lvl cloud cover was noted over the FA, w/ some developing isolated SHRA. Thru the overnight hrs, expect IFR CIGs acrs Nrn terminals, w/ VFR condns acrs Cntrl to Srn terminals. A sfc bndry, currently draped acrs the Srn half of the state is expected to move Nwrd thru the day Fri, w/ VRB winds bcmg primarily Srly by the early aftn hrs area-wide, and sustained readings of 10 to 15 kts, w/ gusts up to 20 to 25 kts. Incrsg covg of SHRA/TS is expected fm Wrn and N/Wrn AR towards Cntrl and Ern AR early Fri aftn and thru the evng hrs. MVFR CIGs may accompany intermittent PDs of rain at area terminals Fri aftn and evng. /72/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 78 66 81 65 / 60 60 60 10 Camden AR 81 67 84 66 / 30 40 30 10 Harrison AR 72 63 79 64 / 90 40 50 40 Hot Springs AR 78 66 82 66 / 70 50 60 20 Little Rock AR 81 69 84 66 / 50 50 50 10 Monticello AR 83 68 85 65 / 10 30 20 10 Mount Ida AR 76 65 81 65 / 90 50 70 30 Mountain Home AR 75 63 79 65 / 80 50 60 20 Newport AR 81 68 83 65 / 40 40 40 10 Pine Bluff AR 81 68 85 65 / 20 40 30 10 Russellville AR 76 64 81 65 / 90 60 70 30 Searcy AR 79 66 82 62 / 40 50 50 10 Stuttgart AR 81 69 84 65 / 30 40 40 10 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...72 LONG TERM....74 AVIATION...72 ####018003696#### FXUS63 KUNR 260802 AFDUNR Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY National Weather Service Rapid City SD 202 AM MDT Fri Apr 26 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Patchy areas of fog may develop over the western SD plains this morning. - Widespread rain expected today through much of the weekend. - Warm and dry conditions move in early next week. && .DISCUSSION...(Today Through Thursday) Issued at 159 AM MDT Fri Apr 26 2024 Current Water Vapor and upper air models show upper ridge over the great lakes and midwest regions, while upper low sits over northeastern CO this morning. At the surface, low pressure sits over the MT/ND border, with cold front running southwest through Wyoming. Skies are partly to mostly cloudy, with light winds. Temperatures currently sit in the mid 40s to low 50s. Current radar shows showers over much of south central SD. Ample moisture coupled with light winds may allow for some areas of fog to develop in the western SD plains this morning. Active weather continues over the weekend, as multiple waves move through the region. Upper low will swing into Nebraska today and up towards MN early Saturday. Current modes have progged the track a bit more east compared to previous runs. As such, higher QPF amounts have also shifted east. Northwesterly flow on the backside of the flow will allow for some stronger downslope winds over the central foothills today. The northwest flow coupled with cloud cover and moisture will make for a cooler day, with highs in the mid 50s to mid 60s. Wrap-around moisture allow showers/storms to fill into the region through this morning and afternoon. 24hr prob of 1"+ rain for this first system sit around the 40 to 60% range for the Black Hills and foothills, while areas to the east along and south of I-90 climb into the 60 to 80% range. Cooler air moves into the region for the rest of the weekend, with highs in the 40s and 50s for Sat/Sun. Second system swings into the region from the southwest later half of Saturday into Sunday, bringing another round of precipitation. Models show a bit less moisture with this second wave, and with a similar track to the first, the higher QPF amounts are progged in south central SD. The higher elevation Black Hills could see some very light snow Saturday night into Sunday, but little to no accumulations are expected. System exits the right late Sunday into Monday morning, and quasi-zonal flow sets up over the region. Temps will rebound to above normal quickly, reaching back into the 60s Monday. Weaker upper low treks across the Canada/US border Monday night into Tuesday, brining chances for showers/storms across the Black Hills and northwestern SD. Mild ridge builds into the Rockies and northern plains behind this low, allowing for a dry Tues/Weds before another system treks through the northern plains later next week. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS Through 06Z Friday Night) Issued At 1033 PM MDT Thu Apr 25 2024 Widespread MVFR/local IFR conditions expected tonight with an expanding area of stratus on the SD plains. Showers and isolated thunderstorms will linger over south central SD through the night. Northerly winds will increase to 15-25 kts with gusts around 35 kts Friday morning with showers continuing on the SD plains, shifting to more isolated activity to the west. Mainly VFR conds expected over northeast WY. && .UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. WY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...Dye AVIATION...JC