####018004946#### FXUS64 KEWX 042351 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 551 PM CST Thu Dec 4 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Cooler temperatures and chances for light rain and drizzle through Friday. - Drier and warmer this weekend, with a cold front moving in Sunday morning. Temperatures remain a little below normal on Monday, with a warming trend into the middle of next week. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Friday night) Issued at 1149 AM CST Thu Dec 4 2025 South Central Texas remains under overcast skies today keeping cool and dreary conditions around the area. Late this morning, a few locations are still reporting some light rain or drizzle though visibility has improved across all locations. Our overrunning pattern producing wet and drizzly conditions this morning is forecast to weaken which will allow for drier conditions this afternoon with cool temperatures from the low 50s to low 60s. Expect mainly dry conditions to continue through early Friday morning, then precipitation increase after sunrise as some mid-level disturbances pass over the area. Chances for light rain and drizzle increase first over the Rio Grande then extend east through the morning into the early afternoon before decreasing late afternoon. Rain amounts will be highest in the western and southern reaches of the CWA but may only amount to around a quarter of an inch over portions of the southern Edwards Plateau, Rio Grande Plains and Coastal Plains south of San Antonio. Elsewhere, rain amounts will vary from a few hundredths up to a tenth of an inch. Some local reductions in visibility are also expected in the morning hours Friday with this activity. Highs remain on the cool side tomorrow topping out in the 50s across the area. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through next Thursday) Issued at 1149 AM CST Thu Dec 4 2025 Drier air gradually begins to move over the area Friday night into the weekend bringing an end to rain chances for South Central Texas. Cloudy skies overnight will clear up from the northwest to southeast Saturday allowing highs to warm up into upper 60s to mid 70s. Winds turn northerly Sunday behind a dry cold front which moves across the area in the morning. This will lead to cooler high temperatures in the north from the low to mid 60s to warmer temperatures in our southern CWA in the low to mid 70s. Winds will be breezy Sunday and Sunday evening but decrease Sunday night into Monday. Early Monday morning, a few locations in the Hill Country or southern Edwards Plateau may briefly see freezing temperatures, but this will likely be for locations who have already seen a freeze this season. Surface high pressure keeps light wind, clear skies and mild highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s around on Monday. This high pressure then shifts east Tuesday with northwesterly flow setting up aloft. Dry weather is forecast for the rest of the period warmer temperatures in the 60s and 70s. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 543 PM CST Thu Dec 4 2025 Expect somewhat better flying conditions for this forecast package though some MVFR cigs remain mainly over KAUS and KSAT at this hour. Have added a TEMPO for KSAT and KSSF for MVFR cigs as expect a mix of VFR and MVFR for a few more hours before improving to VFR cigs. MVFR cigs are expected for KAUS throughout the overnight hours before improving to VFR cigs. For all I-35 TAF sites expect northerly winds of 10-15kt with some gusts up to 20kt before becoming light and eventually switching to the south by tomorrow. Rain chances increase once again tomorrow but cigs should generally stay MVFR this time. Have kept PROB30s to account for this. For KDRT expect VFR cigs to continue before rain chances and MVFR cigs commence by morning and have kept PROB30s for this as well. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 42 53 45 72 / 10 20 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 41 52 43 71 / 10 20 10 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 42 52 44 71 / 20 30 10 0 Burnet Muni Airport 39 53 44 69 / 0 20 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 47 57 47 73 / 20 30 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 39 52 44 71 / 0 20 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 43 55 44 72 / 20 40 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 41 52 44 72 / 10 30 10 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 41 52 44 69 / 10 30 10 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 44 53 46 71 / 20 40 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 45 54 46 71 / 20 40 0 0 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...27 LONG TERM....27 AVIATION...CJM ####018008040#### FXUS63 KLSX 042353 AFDLSX Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 553 PM CST Thu Dec 4 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Arctic air will result in near-record lows (single digits) over parts of the area Friday morning. - Dry conditions are expected through Saturday with light snow possible (30-50%) Saturday night into Sunday. Minor accumulations are possible over parts of the area. && .SHORT TERM... (Through Late Friday Night) Issued at 232 PM CST Thu Dec 4 2025 High pressure continues to slide west to east across the region this afternoon with cold air advection ushering in colder, drier air behind a southbound cold front south of the Missouri/Arkansas border. The magnitude of the dry air is well-depicted in the surface dewpoints with dewpoints in the 20s along the front and single digits to the north. Gradual clearing will continue this evening with a few high clouds hanging on to the far southern section of Missouri and Illinois tonight. Tonight is setting up to be another frigid one, especially north and northeast of the St. Louis Metro. Mainly clear skies, light wind, and remnant snowpack will result in efficient radiational cooling for all locations. The only exception is central and southeast Missouri, where return flow commences sooner and limits cooling potential with respect to locations to the north and northeast. HRRR/RAP are the coldest among the deterministic solutions with sub- zero temperatures roughly from Alton to Litchfield, IL. Despite being a conducive environment for anomalous cold, hi-res guidance may giving too much weight to snowpack. Hi-res model temperatures fall below the 5th percentile of HREF ensembles, which seems unlikely, but it will still be frigid. Gridded forecasts were manually blended tonight to lean between the 10th-25th percentiles for the coldest locations and just below the 50th percentile for warmer locations further south and west. With that said, some locations will approach record territory, primarily at KUIN, where tonight's forecast low of 5 degrees would break the December 5th record set in 2005. There was some concern that fog development could lead to freezing fog in the coldest areas (IL), but this is likely a result of cold bias from the hi-res guidance. Surface dewpoints fall well below zero and freezing fog impacts usually need 1/4 mile visibility to produce impacts. Additionally, warm air advection doesn't strengthen in this area until after 12z, lacking the overrunning conditions that might lead to better fog potential over snowpack. For now, it's a monitoring situation, but unlikely. The remainder of Friday welcomes milder temperatures under mostly clear skies, return flow, and strengthening warm air advection. High temperatures will almost feel warm in comparison. Friday's highs range from the low-30s over northeast Missouri to west-central Illinois, to the mid-40s over central and southeast Missouri. Another cold front passes through the area late Friday, but not soon enough to greatly impact low temperatures (low/mid-20s). The front is also moisture-starved and passes through quietly otherwise. Maples && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Next Thursday) Issued at 232 PM CST Thu Dec 4 2025 Friday night's cold front will have more of an impact to temperatures Saturday, as it reinforces the arctic airmass southward. The difference with this front is lack of southward progress, which then creates a large disparity in temperatures through the day Saturday. The greatest spread (6-8 degrees) among the HREF ensembles extends from northwest Missouri through central and southeast Missouri, where partial clearing and frontal position will be more of a factor on temperature variability. If the front begins to stall sooner, temperatures will favor the upper quartile with highs in the 40s and possibly a localized reading near 50 degrees. Otherwise, temperatures move about 10 degrees from their morning lows with highs in the 30s. An Alberta Clipper quickly drops down the east side of the Rockies, through the Plains, and into the St. Louis Region Saturday night into Sunday. Another weak surface low tracks due west to east across northern Texas into Louisiana. The southern system pulls moisture northward into the Gulf states, assisting the clipper system with moisture access. Unfortunately, we're in no-mans land in reference to model guidance as it falls on the cusp of medium and hi-res solutions. This makes it even more difficult to decipher exactly where the snowfall potential is highest. Clipper tracks are notoriously difficult to pinpoint for this reason, but the stage is set for at least some minor accumulations with a few inches possible along and north of the surface low track. 6-hourly LREF QPF shows a smearing of measurable QPF (0.01 or greater) extending from north- central Missouri through St. Louis, eastward through Effingham. Amounts trend upward toward KUIN with 0.15". Both GFS/ECM multi-run snowfall ensembles show a fairly consistent beat on accumulations, but I'm concerned in the fact they're as low as they are with less than 1" of snowfall even near KUIN. This tells me it's not likely keying in on the finer details and the fact that some individual solutions pump out as much as 0.25" of QPF along the wing of warm air advection, higher snow ratios with these systems could easily produce advisory criteria snowfall with enough moisture. 1-3" doesn't look unreasonable for our north/northeast counties, trailing off to less than an inch and maybe even some light, cold rain in our southwest counties. Guidance shows weak mid-level forcing closely follows the clipper as the cold front pushes south through the day Sunday. Most guidance picks up on lingering light snow or flurries through much of the day Sunday. Much of this registered below measurable QPF with the 75th percentile suggesting 0.01-0.02" could fall. If so, whatever impacts result from the clipper may be extending into Sunday afternoon with a few slick spots on untreated surfaces. Again, much of this will be determined with the system track - stay tuned to subsequent updates over the next couple of days. By-and-large, it does not look like a big event, but it could toss some surprises with a localized corridor of higher totals if all comes together right. High pressure builds in behind the clipper, starting off next week cool and dry. Beyond Monday, things become a little less certain with specifics. Overall, milder conditions return for Tuesday with southwest flow behind the departing high. A couple of additions clipper systems cross the northern half of the U.S., but there is a poor handle on track/timing through midweek. Maples && .AVIATION... (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Friday Evening) Issued at 539 PM CST Thu Dec 4 2025 VFR flight conditions are expected to prevail across the area through the period. Some high resolution guidance is hinting there could be some fog with visibility below 1SM across parts of northeast Missouri into west central and south central Illinois overnight. I consider this to be a very low probability (less than 20 percent) as low level moisture is still quite low under the influence of an Arctic high pressure system. If fog does form, temperatures will be cold enough for it cause icing issues on wing surfaces. Otherwise, light and variable winds will turn to the south by Friday morning as the high moves east and another trough of low pressure digs into the east central Great Plains. Carney && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && $$ WFO LSX ####018012368#### FXUS63 KLOT 042353 AFDLOT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 553 PM CST Thu Dec 4 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Tonight will be very cold with overnight lows ranging from -5 to +5F. Typical cold spots may make a run for -10 to -15F. - Patchy but dense freezing fog may develop tonight, especially in open or low-lying areas. Where freezing fog develops, hoar frost may lead to slick spots on untreated surfaces. - Friday will start cold and calm, before breezy southwesterly winds develop by mid afternoon. Isolated blowing/drifting snow cannot be ruled out. - A mix of freezing drizzle and snow may materialize north of I-80 Friday night (20-30% chance). - A clipper-like pattern will become established this weekend into early next week with regular opportunities for snow in the general region. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 145 PM CST Thu Dec 4 2025 Tonight through Friday night: The center of a surface pressure ridge will continue to slide through the region this afternoon and settle across the Ohio River Valley tonight. Clear skies and a healthy snow pack at sunset will set the stage for quick decoupling and ideal conditions for efficient radiational cooling tonight, supporting overnight lows dropping like a rock. (It's probably not a good sign that some areas already have dew points ranging from 5 to 10 below). Will go ahead and explicitly forecast overnight lows ranging from -5 to +5F, keeping in mind that typical cold spots (Rochelle, Aurora) may make a run for -10 to -15F. The record low temperature for the calendar date of December 5 will be threatened at Chicago (4F set in 2005) and Rockford (-5F, also set in 2005). Gradually increasing warm air advection along the backside of the high pressure system in tandem with the very cold surface temperatures will set the stage for the development of a strong low-level inversion tonight. With forecast soundings depicting trapped low-level moisture beneath the inversion (partially a consequence of sunshine facilitating sublimation at the very top of the snowpack today), concern is rising that shallow but dense freezing fog will develop tonight, especially in sheltered areas and near rivers. The main limiting factor for fog appears to be some 20-25kt of flow right at the top of the inversion, which may mechanically mix dry air downward toward the surface. However, given the very cold forecasted overnight low temperatures, do think that the near surface layer may end up so stable it resists the downward entrainment of any dry air. So, will introduce patchy freezing fog across the entire area, save for near Lake Michigan. If freezing fog does develop and become dense, the deposition of ice (hoar frost) would be likely on all surfaces (trees, fences, roadways/bridges/overpasses). If/where temperatures verify on the colder end of the spectrum, a saturated DGZ may develop literally at ground level, perhaps supporting suspended ice crystals (ice pillars). In all, tonight will be more typical of the middle of winter in the northern Plains than early December in the Great Lakes. Tomorrow, a surface low will move across northern Wisconsin and act to tighten the low-level pressure gradient across the Lower Great Lakes. Mixing into the strengthening low-level wind field will be stunted initially by the strong morning inversion, though by early afternoon, do expect southwesterly winds to gust 20 to 25 mph. In scenarios where mixing is most efficient, gusts in the 30 to 35 mph range cannot be ruled out by early evening. If such strong winds were to materialize, would have to watch for areas of blowing and drifting snow in open areas (a quick check outside confirmed the top layer of snow has become quite powdery). Highs will rise toward the mid to upper 20s. Tomorrow night, weak isentropic ascent ahead of an approaching cold front will induce the development of low stratus across the region. Forecast soundings indicate that stratus thickness may become sufficient to produce precipitation at some point early Saturday morning, mainly near and north of Interstate 80. With in-cloud temperatures appearing to be warmer than -8C (unsupportive of cloud ice), precipitation type may tend to favor freezing drizzle of snizzle. So, will tuck in a mention of freezing drizzle into the forecast, ending by daybreak Saturday. Temperatures look to hover in the mid to upper 20s all night, so any freezing drizzle would be prone to sticking to any untreated surface. Borchardt Saturday through next Thursday: This weekend through the middle of next week, we'll find the general region sandwiched between a blocking upper high off the central Pacific coast and a persistent upper low spinning over Canada's Hudson Bay region. This will result in a series of upper trough axes training across the central CONUS and lock the Midwest into a NW to zonal upper flow pattern. And with a rich atmospheric river feeding onshore the PNW and Alberta coasts, such a setup will drive a procession of mid-level impulses off the lee of northern US and Canadian Rockies and down across the Midwest presenting frequent opportunities for snow. As my colleague puts it, "hop aboard the clipper express!" The first in this series of waves comes Saturday evening into Sunday morning. Low pressure will track across central IL and likely bring a good clip of snow showers to the local area. Forecast soundings from around the CWA feature saturation and decent forcing for ascent through and on either side of the DGZ, which should support a widespread push of snow north of the storm track. Heavy banding doesn't appear to be a big concern with this system, but with the mid-level jet immediately to our north, there is a signal for some moderate shearing deformation on the storm's northern flank which could offer a narrow corridor of relatively higher totals north of the storm track. This signal is much stronger out in IA before weakening into our area. Accordingly guidance strongly favors higher totals toward and west of the Mississippi and lesser totals locally. Ensemble and deterministic guidance likes a largely 1 to over 2" range around a majority of our CWA with fair support for a little less than that, and almost no support for anything more than 3". Bands of lake effect snow look to develop in the storm's wake Sunday afternoon into early Monday, but it's unclear how this potential will impact us locally. The ENS maintains more BL moisture into Sunday night and has the low level wind field more veered making it more bullish on the lake-effect potential, particularly for the IL side, than the GEFS. Latest deterministic Euro even resolves an explicit mesolow around the bend of the lake which would also help steer snow toward the Chicago. Probs from the GEFS are lower around the lake and are focused toward northwest IN. Meanwhile, the GEPS gives a look closer to that of the ENS. This doesn't appear to be an overly impactful lake-effect setup, but the potential is there for localized areas to maybe see upwards of an additional inch or two, likely much less than that on a more widespread basis. Guidance then resolves a one-two punch of clipper systems tracking through the region in quick succession early next week; the first being Monday night into Tuesday and the other slated for Wednesday. Uncertainty grows quickly from this point as these systems will be in the process of phasing with the Hudson Bay upper low making them especially tough to get a good handle on. A lot of run-to-run model variability exists with these systems, and even individual members of any given ensemble system offer a wide variety of outcomes following this weekend. Monday night-Tuesday, the clipper and highest PoPs are favored to track just to our north with a surface cold front moving across our local area. Moisture and forcing may be tightly wound around the low to the north and ensemble PoPs drop off pretty quickly with southern extent through the CWA. Surface high pressure to the SE may also impinge on precip chances into our CWA; the GFS is most bullish on this drier outcome. Snow showers appear likely for at least northern portions of the CWA. Wednesday's clipper is also favored to track to our north across WI, although there is even more variability with this storm. Medium range guidance agrees that enough warm air will infiltrate the system to offer rain or a wintry mix to those roughly near and south of the storm track, and there's a good chance that includes at least a portion of our CWA. Additional opportunities for lake-effect snow may present themselves on the backsides of the these systems next week, although details are very fuzzy for the time being. Despite the uncertainties in precip expectations, there is fair agreement on temperatures through the middle of next week, particularly among daytime highs where there is more spread in low temperature guidance. Below-normal conditions will persist with daytime temperatures in the upper teens to mid 20s Sunday and Monday. Sunday night into Monday morning looks particularly cool, similar to what we saw this morning. There's a bit of spread, but single digits appear likely outside of the city and interior Chicago metro, with single digits below zero very attainable, especially across outlying areas. Winds look rather light which should keep the wind chill factor from getting out of hand. We'll trend warmer for Tuesday and Wednesday, but likely still below normal with lower and middle 30s favored. Doom && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 553 PM CST Thu Dec 4 2025 Surface high pressure centered over northern Illinois early this evening will drift east overnight calm/VRB winds to settle southwest while gradually increasing through the night. Winds will remain southwest through the period, with gusts over 20 knots late Friday morning through the evening. Generally clear skies combined with the light winds and existing snow pack will allow a strong and shallow nocturnal inversion to develop this evening. BR is expected to initially develop at the outlying sites by the early overnight hours, with patchy FZFG and shallow stratus also possible. As weak warm-air advection ensues with the increasing southwest winds overnight, any FZFG and/or IFR/LIFR stratus will begin advecting northeast toward the Chicago terminals. Mixing of very dry air atop the inversion (roughly at 1kft) will somewhat impede the northeastward progress of stratus, so do not have a lot of confidence that IFR (or lower) ceilings and visibility will reach ORD/MDW. Will need to monitor upstream trends south and southwest of the Chicago metro this evening to determine if sub 1kft ceilings and lower visibility need to be included in the TAF. Moisture and warm-air advection ahead of an approaching cold front Friday evening will promote MVFR ceilings at the end of the TAF period. IFR ceilings with flurries or light freezing drizzle cannot be ruled out, particularly late Friday night beyond the current TAF period, but chances remain too low to include at this time. Kluber && .CLIMATE... Issued at 1126 AM Thu Dec 5 2025 Here are the current record low temperatures for Friday, December 5: Chicago Low Friday 12/5 4 (2005) Rockford Low Friday 12/5 -5 (2005) - NWS Chicago && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. IN...None. LM...Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to midnight CST Friday night for Winthrop Harbor to Wilmette Harbor IL. Small Craft Advisory from noon Friday to midnight CST Friday night for Wilmette Harbor IL to Michigan City IN. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/chicago ####018006179#### FXUS63 KABR 042353 AFDABR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 553 PM CST Thu Dec 4 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Downslope winds expected from Sisseton south to Brandt this afternoon, with gusts from 40-50 mph. This will create areas of blowing/drifting snow with localized areas of reduced visibilities down to a mile at times. - System late tonight into Friday bringing generally around an inch or less of light snow. Areas in south central SD could see freezing rain to a wintry mix of precipitation tonight, which could cause a light glaze on surfaces Friday morning. - Snow chances (50-70%) return Saturday as a clipper system moves through, producing a dusting of snow to the north and an inch or two of snow south of US-212. There will be periodic lower chances for snow (20-40%) through early next week, as more weak weather systems have the potential to move through the region. && .SHORT TERM /THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 212 PM CST Thu Dec 4 2025 As of 20z, strong downsloping winds are gusting along the eastern side of the Prairie Coteau. This is leading to wind gust observations of 40-50 mph in areas, as well as drifting and patchy blowing snow locally reducing visibilities down to a mile or less at times. These strong winds will continue to stay strong into the evening before weakening again. Tonight, a small clipper will move into central and northeastern SD from ND. This clipper will mostly bring light snow flurries for north central SD tonight and for northeastern SD late tonight through Friday morning. There is a bit of warmer air aloft, and this should cool below freezing for most areas before precipitation starts to fall. However, south central SD could stay warmer aloft for longer causing the snow to melt as it falls before it reaches the surface. Since surface temperatures will be around/below freezing, this melted snow could freeze as it reaches the ground leading to freezing rain or a wintry mix of precipitation. It is possible for a light glaze of ice to form in a line from the Pierre and Redfield areas and to the south. Snowfall amounts look to be an inch or less, higher amounts in northeastern SD. Temperatures will continue be warmer than previous days with tomorrow forecast to have highs in the upper 20s to mid 30s. At the same time, wind chills will stay above 0, with most areas getting into the teens to lower 20s tonight and tomorrow. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 212 PM CST Thu Dec 4 2025 General theme for the long term part of the forecast is northwesterly flow aloft leading to clipper systems moving through the region every 18-24hrs. This will bring periods of light snow with the clippers and variable temperatures (warming in front of and colder behind). All in all, the lighter snow should only lead to minor impacts as accumulations will generally be a light dusting to an inch or two at the most (primarily on Fri night into Saturday in central SD). The greatest uncertainty with these clipper systems comes with the amounts and location of the greatest snowfall for the Friday night into Saturday system. The uncertainty has been there for the last several days, largely with the track of the surface low and the intensity of the Canadian high to the north. It does seem like we're seeing more consistency now with the low tracking from central MT on Friday night to central NE by Saturday afternoon. This will lead to snow occurring on the north-northeast side of the low and tied to the 850-700mb warm air advection and FGen forcing. The swath of snow is expected to stretch southeast across central SD and into southeast SD, but the exact track is still a little uncertain. The latest in the ensemble snowfall amounts highlight a dusting (10-25th percentile) to over 3" (90-95th percentile) for the Mobridge/Pierre/Faulkton area and then lesser amounts as you head farther to the northeast. The trend does continue to point towards the greatest amounts being to the south of our forecast area on Saturday, as the forcing intensifies in southeast SD. Will need to continue to fine-tune this forecast over the next day. Behind that clipper, high pressure builds in for Saturday night into Sunday morning before the next clipper, but this looks to be drier and struggles as it runs into the high over central SD. The next potential clipper for Sunday night into Monday looks to be farther north (more of a eastern ND and northern MN snow), before the next one on Tues night into Wed (this one is a little farther south and does bring some snow potential to northeast SD and rain/snow to central SD). As mentioned above, these clippers appear to be lighter on snow than Saturday and only expect a light dusting. Fortunately, with the snow on the ground, no significant winds expected at this time (limiting blowing snow), although probabilities of 34kt or greater do increase to above 50% for Tues/Wed next week with that clipper. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 553 PM CST Thu Dec 4 2025 Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG VFR conditions start the period, as ATY just went to SCT instead of BKN008. These lower clouds may only temporarily return through 02Z. A surface trough pushing through the Dakotas will bring light precipitation with it. 3-5 hours of light snow will be possible at most locations overnight into Friday morning with IFR to LIFR ceilings. Given the slightly warmer conditions and the cold ground at PIR, 3 hours of -FZRA is possible. Confidence is lower at PIR, so the -FZRA has only been included at a TEMPO basis for now. IFR to LIFR ceilings look to stick around longest at ATY, from 11Z Friday until 00Z Saturday. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Vipond LONG TERM...SRF AVIATION...06 ####018007880#### FXUS62 KTAE 042354 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 654 PM EST Thu Dec 4 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 647 PM EST Thu Dec 4 2025 - Beneficial rainfall expected across the area through the weekend. - Widespread rainfall totals of 1" to 4" are possible, with higher amounts forecast along and north of a line from near Panama City, FL to Valdosta, GA. && .SHORT TERM... (This Evening through Friday Night) Issued at 153 PM EST Thu Dec 4 2025 A surface low extending from the Louisiana coast will continue to bring in rain for the Panhandle coast and SE Alabama into SW Georgia. The ongoing rain and clouds for today will keep temperatures cool in the 50s and 60s for most locations except for the SE Big Bend which may see temps this afternoon around 70 degrees. Tonight, temps will be in mid 40s with the low 50s in the SE Big Bend. A theme for the Short Term forecast is that the SE Big Bend will be left out of most of the event that is ongoing regarding rainfall and temperatures. Further rounds of rain will be pushed inland by a warm front, slowly moving east and north through the day Friday. The Storm Prediction Center has the entire region highlighted for general thunder. There is, however, a concern for stronger storms along the immediate coast, depending on where the warm front settles. Low-level shear will be present, but there will be limited instability. A few thunderstorms will be possible along the Panhandle and Big Bend coast where the surface low is most likely to be inland. The SPC does not expect severe storms to come from this but there is a non- zero potential that a storm or two could become surface-based on Friday. However, confidence remains too low for severe probabilities to be added to the region. If the low travels further inland, then our AL and GA counties may have the chance for thunderstorms to develop. Nearly all of the TAE CWA has an 80-100% chance for rain on Friday, with the southeast Big Bend ranging from 40-70% on Friday. It will take a little longer for the system to reach the more eastern counties. With all the expected and ongoing rain, temperatures will be kept cool for most of the region with highs on Friday in the upper 50s in our AL and GA counties, north of the warm front. Our FL counties can see temperatures in the low 70s, whereas the SE Big Bend can see highs in the upper 70s. Temps Friday night will be similarly dispersed with the upper 40s for our AL and GA counties, low 50s in FL counties, and upper 50s for the SE Big Bend. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through next Wednesday) Issued at 153 PM EST Thu Dec 4 2025 The surface low from the Short Term will have moved east, but another surface low will follow; this keeps the rain ongoing for Saturday into Sunday. PWATs of 1.6" to 1.8" are forecast over the region and are near record values for early December. This could lead to heavy showers for Saturday night into Sunday. We could see the potential for localized flooding concerns in urban and low- lying areas. The WPC has highlighted our regions in a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for excessive rainfall for both Saturday and Sunday. Not really expecting any thunder with this round of showers as the instability seems to remain well offshore. High temperatures for Saturday through the rest of the long term will be around normal with highs in the upper 50s north of I-10 to low-mid 60s in our FL counties. There will be a cold front passing through, clearing out all the rain Sunday night into Monday. Following the frontal passage, overnight lows will be cooler. Expect Low temperatures for the start of the work week to range in the upper 30s and low 40s along the coast, which is a little below average for this time of year. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 647 PM EST Thu Dec 4 2025 Showers will continue to impact all terminals through the evening, with a possible break during the overnight hours. Some guidance indicates an area of dense fog developing across Florida Big Bend around sunrise and have started to hedge towards this with TLH TAF, but may not be agressive enough. Elsewhere, cigs are likely to deteriorate through the day on Friday with IFR conditions likely. && .MARINE... Issued at 153 PM EST Thu Dec 4 2025 Conditions show that there currently are 20kt winds in our western- most zones this afternoon. As a result, a Small Craft Advisory is in effect through this evening for 20 kt winds with gusts around 25 kts. From Synopsis: Easterly winds that are at Cautionary (near- Advisory) level for our waters west of Apalachicola this afternoon will shift southerly by tomorrow morning. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are likely and will continue through the weekend. Our western waters will see seas of 3-4 feet, while being around 2 feet to the east. Northeasterly winds return on Saturday and will clock around again to return to northerly winds on Monday as a cold front makes its way through the region. Cautionary to Advisory-level winds are expected during the day Monday as showers/thunderstorms are cleared out by the front. Seas are expected to increase (3-5 feet) behind the front Monday. More tranquil boating conditions return by the middle of next week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 153 PM EST Thu Dec 4 2025 Low afternoon dispersions today through Sunday with the exception for the SE FL Big Bend on Friday where fair dispersions are forecast. However, widespread rainfall is forecast for today through the weekend with an accumulation total of 1-4 inches, with a marginal chance of exceeding 6 inches in localized areas. The higher rain chances will be for our western districts and totals will decrease as you head east and south. Winds today will clock around from southerly at around 10-15 mph to be northerly by Friday afternoon decreasing to around 5-10 mph. A cold front will clear out the rain Sunday into Monday. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 153 PM EST Thu Dec 4 2025 Multiple rounds of showers are expected beginning today through Sunday. The heaviest of showers are expected Friday morning along the Panhandle coast, then again Saturday into Sunday. A widespread 1- 4 inches is expected, with the lowest amounts in the FL SE Big Bend. Given antecedent conditions, riverine flooding is not expected. However, there could be some nuisance flooding from heavier showers/storms over the next few days; particularly over our FL counties along and south of I-10 as the rain/storms could train over the area. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 50 72 54 64 / 60 80 50 80 Panama City 50 72 54 63 / 60 80 60 90 Dothan 45 58 49 56 / 70 80 80 90 Albany 45 57 49 57 / 70 90 80 90 Valdosta 48 71 52 62 / 50 90 60 90 Cross City 52 77 58 73 / 10 30 40 60 Apalachicola 56 73 57 67 / 40 70 50 80 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM CST this evening for GMZ751-770. && $$ SHORT TERM...Montgomery LONG TERM....Montgomery AVIATION...Camp MARINE...Montgomery FIRE WEATHER...Montgomery HYDROLOGY...Montgomery ####018007719#### FXUS61 KRNK 042354 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 654 PM EST Thu Dec 4 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure will move from the Gulf Coast to the North Carolina coast through Friday, bringing wintry precipitation to our area mainly in the form of snow. This low exits to the east by Friday night with high pressure building in for Saturday. Another front moving in from the west may bring a chance of precipitation late Sunday into Monday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 640 PM EST Thursday... Key Messages: 1) Model trends are leaning toward some higher amounts along/northwest of the I-81 corridor, so a few locations could see 5 or 6 inches but low confidence on coverage of those amounts. 2) Winter Weather Advisory in effect tonight into Friday for the entire region. High-res solutions have upped the amounts some especially in the corridor northwest of I-81 into southeast WV. Ensembles are leaning on the 3-5 inch range, but solutions like the HRRR and 3km NAM are hinting out 6+ inch amounts over portions of Southeast WV into the higher ridges of the Blue Ridge north of Roanoke. Looking at some winter parameters such frontogentical forcing and -EPV indicates potential for some banding, but overall, the strength/speed of this system does not paint a strong picture of mesoscale banding lasting long, so overall, though we believe there will be places that see 5-6"+, the majority of the area will remain in the 2-4" range. Nonetheless, a plowable snow for most. Further south into NC, some mix and slightly warmer temps aloft will limit totals, but given temps falling back into the 20s tonight, no changes to the advisory were made. Timing still looks to be 9pm at the earliest in far SW VA, reaching the NC/southern VA Piedmont by 2-3am, with most having snow around midnight-1am, then ending between 7am-noon. To summarize amounts, we are expecting mainly 2-4", with locally 5-6" along/north of of U.S. 460 and northwest of I-81 from Bluefield/Wytheville, north into the Shenandoah Valley, with potential 3-4" amounts in spots along the 460 corridor from Roanoke to Lynchburg. Along/south of US 58 in southern VA expecting 1-2" amounts. A light glaze of ice still possible in the NC mountains into far SW VA, just a few hundredths. Previous discussion... A low pressure system will bring in snowy conditions tonight into Friday morning. Recent model guidance suggests this system may arrive a little earlier than initially anticipated. Currently, the far western mountainous counties may start to receive light snow as early as 10PM. As the system moves east, isentropic lift starts to peak around midnight and light snowfall will take over the area. The snow will begin to move out around daybreak but may linger on for a few additional hours before precipitation chances drop towards zero by early Friday afternoon. Ensemble model guidance as increased the QPF expected which will translate into more snow amounts. For most of the region, between 2-4" are forecast to accumulate overnight with localized areas receiving up to 5-6". Counties in North Carolina and counties in Virginia bordering NC may receive the least amount of snow with only about 1-2". The reason for this is while the snow system makes its way through, a surface high pressure system to our northeast will begin to wedge in. This will reinforce cold air into the area. Due to the timing of this wedge and the snow arrival, areas in the Piedmont may receive rain at first which will then transition into snow. Winds may pick up as the snow moves through, mostly for areas further west. Even a modest wind gust, however, will decrease visibility with the light snow. To reiterate from previous discussions, the early morning commute Friday will be undesirable given the snowy conditions. Confidence in this forecast is high. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 1245 PM EST Thursday... Key Messages: 1) Quieter weekend with below normal temperatures 2) Front on Sunday night/Monday morning will bring rain for most, some snow in mountains Saturday will be mostly quiet with zonal upper flow and little to speak of in terms of synoptic features. Temperatures will drop well into the 20s each night. Daytime highs will warm back into the 40s for most, with Monday being cooler behind a front. Sunday will feature a cold front introducing rain starting Sunday night. As temperatures drop with the frontal passage, upslope snow will take over for rain in the mountains, largely west of Roanoke. Piedmont and central VA regions will remain liquid in terms of p- type. Accumulation amounts will be light with this system, as there will not be sufficient moisture available for large QPF. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 1245 PM EST Thursday... Key Messages: 1) Quiet workweek bookended by a late week front In high pressure behind Sunday's front, the remainder of the workweek will suppressed by a broad strong region of high pressure. Monday night will be the coldest immediately in the wake of the front, with temperatures for most of the forecast area dropping into the teens. Luckily there will be little wind to speak of, so we will likely avoid dangerous wind chills. Temperatures warm back to just below normal for the end of the week, as we look ahead to the next frontal system likely to impact us Friday. We have settled into a familiar frequency of frontal systems in winter of another every 3-4 days. Too early to make a call on whether snow will be included with the late week system, but it is December, so it wouldn't raise any eyebrows if frozen precipitation entered the conversation in the next day or two. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 650 PM EST Thursday... VFR to start the TAF period will deteriorate quickly by 04-06z for the area with snow moving in from the southwest. This snow will bring sub 1kft cigs and vsbys mainly in the 1-3sm range, but dropping at times to under a mile if snow becomes heavier. Snow moves out between 12z-15z, but low clouds will remain as there is no good mixing to clear out the skies. Fog may also impact vsbys into the afternoon. Confidence in this forecast his high for poor flying weather, moderate on how low vsbys go. .EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... Persistent low level cloud cover this weekend and another system early next week may keep all terminals sub-VFR for a while. It may not be until higher pressure moves in around mid-next week that skies become clear, but another potential winter system may return following it. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST Friday for VAZ007-009- 015. Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 7 PM EST Friday for VAZ010>014-016>020-022>024-032>035. Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 7 PM EST Friday for VAZ043>047-058-059. NC...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST Friday for NCZ001-002- 018. Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 7 PM EST Friday for NCZ003>006-019-020. WV...Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 7 PM EST Friday for WVZ042>044-507-508. && $$ SYNOPSIS...PM/WP NEAR TERM...CG/WP SHORT TERM...VFJ LONG TERM...VFJ AVIATION...CG/WP ####018008071#### FXUS61 KGYX 042354 AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 654 PM EST Thu Dec 4 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Scattered heavy snow showers and squalls along a cold front this afternoon will give way to gusty winds this evening and tonight. Temperatures will fall from the 30s into the single digits and even below zero in places by Friday morning. Wind chills even at the coast will be below zero. High pressure will arrive later Friday and more seasonable temperatures return Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... 645 PM Update...Arctic front has cleared the region and very cold air continues to pour in on gusty NW winds. The winds will gradually diminish after midnight but temperatures will remain the coldest of the season so far. Previously... A cold front will continue to push through the region this afternoon with winds shifting to out of the northwest after it passes. Behind the front, most guidance suggests 3-hour surface pressure rises of 5 to 7 mb, along with strong cold air advection and steep low-level lapse rates. Forecast soundings suggest the potential for convective snow showers and some wind gusts up to 45 mph along and behind the front, especially across southern New Hampshire and portions of coastal Maine. A few heavy snow showers and/or squalls will be possible under the stronger reflectivity cores, so stay weather ready if traveling. Attention then turns to the frigid temperatures expected tonight into Friday morning. High pressure will continue to push into the region overnight which should promote clearing skies. With the center of the high to our south, we could see some lingering clouds across the north but we should see enough clearing for some solid radiational cooling for most of the area, especially with a fresh snowpack in place. Lows will fall into the single digits below zero north, to the around 5 above zero south. A few readings in the double digits below are not our of the question in some of the northern valleys. Winds will be gradually diminishing overnight, but should remain fairly breezy. This will lead to widespread wind chills dipping into the double digits below zero, especially across the north where we could see values as low as 25 below. Some of the higher peaks could even see values of 30 below or lower and coastal regions should see wind chills below zero. We did expand the Cold Weather Advisory to include northern Grafton and southern Coos counties. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... The center of the surface high moves off into the Atlantic by late Friday as the upper flow flattens and turns nearly zonal. Low amplitude ridging will then move across the forecast area on Friday night. Frigid temperatures will be ongoing Friday morning as discussed in the near term. It will stay cold during the day but the winds will at least be much lighter. Highs will only range from the low to mid teens north, to the low to mid 20s south and along the coast. Friday night shouldn't be as cold with some modest warm air advection forecast late. Lows will range from the single digits above zero north, to the lower teens south and along the coast. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Overview: The region will remain north of the primary storm track into this weekend as a strong jet positions over the Mid Atlantic. This keeps significant precipitation at bay for a couple days, but also keeps the area below normal for temperatures. A more stormy pattern emerges in the middle of next week. Details: Exiting high pressure aids in some return flow Saturday. This brings some temperature moderation as well as moisture towards the coast. Guidance has been bringing some QPF to the coast through the day. This likely is aided by low level moisture arriving from the west via the tail of a passing front. This disturbance will also promote some mountain snow showers into Sunday morning. Saturday night lows will feel mild compared to late week and early next, with values in the teens to around 20. These could end up a couple degrees cooler in spots that go calm, but a gentle breeze and some lingering clouds should prevent a full night of radiational cooling. Northwest breeze continues Sunday as high pressure dives into the Midwest. This should weaken or end mtn snow showers as it advects drier air towards NH. Guidance has been depicting a weak disturbance ejecting out of the Great Lakes into New England for the evening and overnight hours. This comes in a few modes and strengths across the model suite, the GFS is the most amplified, while others depict a simple weak clipper. For now, a light dusting seems most likely from this system as it ushers back in colder temperatures. Overnight lows fall back into the single digits and teens. Aforementioned Midwest high swings into the Northeast for the beginning of next week. This will return cold, below normal temperatures to the area Monday night. Lows again fall into the single digits above and below zero. Thankfully, with the high nearing overhead, it won't be accompanied by strong, gusty winds like present. Exit of the high will bring an active pattern back to the region. Will be following an additional clipper system late Tuesday into Wed morning, and a potentially more potent system attempting to phase late Wed into Thursday. This would again have good jet dynamics to provide widespread lift ahead of a tilting trough aloft. A negative tilt may be achieved by the time the low pres moves into the Northeast, but questions remain if it remains progressive to the north or digs further east. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Short Term...An arctic cold front will move quickly through the region today, bringing a chance for heavy snow showers/squalls and brief local IFR or lower conditions. Behind the front, surface wind gusts up to 40 kts are possible this evening. Northwest of the mountains some lingering MVFR ceilings are possible in upslope flow/snow showers tonight. Long Term...Some lowered ceilings to MVFR possible Saturday, with some light SN for coastal terminals. This lifts northeast in the evening, with SN continuing towards mountain terminals like HIE. Trend towards VFR Sunday and Monday. && .MARINE... Short Term...A strong cold front is expected to push across the waters later this afternoon with strong wind gusts anticipated behind it. Gale warnings have been issued for all waters into tonight. While waters are still relatively warm, the coming air mass will be quite cold and some pockets of freezing spray are not out of the question. Long Term...Conditions look to remain below SCA Saturday through Sunday. NW winds increase Sunday night into Monday as winds near 30 kt and wave heights build 4 to 5 ft. These briefly subside Tuesday before another system Wed into Thurs brings another period of greater winds and elevated seas. && .CLIMATE... This air mass on Friday morning will be anomalously cold and low temperatures will approach records. This will especially be true at PWM where the forecast is 2 degrees and the current record is 7 in both 1989 and 1945. The forecast at AUG is 2 degrees and the current record is 4 set in both 1989 and 1991. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...Cold Weather Advisory until 8 AM EST Friday for MEZ007>009. NH...Cold Weather Advisory until 8 AM EST Friday for NHZ001>003. MARINE...Gale Warning until 5 AM EST Friday for ANZ150-152-154. Gale Warning until 3 AM EST Friday for ANZ151-153. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM...Ekster/Hargrove SHORT TERM...Hargrove LONG TERM...Cornwell AVIATION... MARINE... CLIMATE...