####018004464#### FXUS62 KKEY 260804 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 404 AM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 400 AM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024 Currently - An average Atlantic ridge stretching across Florida and into the northeastern Gulf of Mexico is in the early stages of being absorbed by a large high over eastern North America spreading southeast and southwards. Meanwhile, troughing aloft is giving way to sharp ridging advancing eastward through the eastern United States and Gulf of Mexico. A somewhat complicated subsidence inversion was based around 890 mb above a well mixed boundary layer. Precipitable water has come down slightly over the past 24 hours to below .8 inches. This inversion has been and continues to be a big player in squashing shower activity over the past long while. Another contributor has been the general lack of moisture with dew points remaining in the lower to mid 60s. Forecast - Over the next couple of days the previously mentioned North American high will become a sprawling system reaching from off the New England coast, through the southeast, and across the Gulf of Mexico. In response, local winds will trend sharply upwards. Expect windy conditions by late Saturday. The environment is expected to remain capped to deep convection with a paucity of deep layered moisture. Surface dew points are projected to remain in the lower 60s to mid 60s due to the incoming air being of modified continental origin. Coincident with this dramatically accelerating flow is an expected increase of boundary layer moisture and a deepening of the boundary layer. This should be sufficient to drive at least a few showers despite lackluster dew points. Expect a compressed temperature range, but near normal. By late this weekend the high will have weakened some, but remain robust and centered off the Carolina Coast. Fresh breezes on Sunday will gradually ease back over the ensuing couple of days as the high weakens further and scoots south. Through this, upstream streamlines will be squashed further south, resulting in dew points moving upwards through the upper 70s. Expect temperatures to also trend upwards, moving more fully into the mid 80s through this period. Meanwhile, the upper level ridging will shift substantially northward leaving a zonal subtropical jet and nebulous mid levels across our area. All this shifts east into the Atlantic through the first half of the week. This will not do anything to prevent shower formation. For this time of year, at least a slight chance of showers is justified. && .MARINE... Issued at 400 AM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024 Over the next couple of days, an Atlantic ridge across Florida will be absorbed by a large strengthening high cell driving southeast and southeastward off of eastern North America. As a result, expect Keys marine winds to trend sharply upwards. A Small Craft Advisory will likely be required for all Keys waters by tonight. Winds may lull with day time heating on Saturday. But this lull will be short lived. Expect fresh to strong winds from Saturday through Sunday. Winds will begin easing beginning Sunday as the responsible high weakens slightly while shifting southwestward off the Atlantic coast, closer to the Keys. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 400 AM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024 VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period. Near surface winds will remain light to gentle out of the northeast to east through the mid-morning hours before a wind surge develops for the late morning continuing through the afternoon and evening hours. Wind gusts to 25 knots are possible at times. && .CLIMATE... On this day on Keys Weather History, the daily record warm low temperature of 81F was recorded in Key West. This is also tied for the warmest low temperature ever recorded in April. Temperature records for Key West date back to 1873. && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...11 Aviation/Nowcasts....MJV Data Acquisition.....DP Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest ####018005570#### FXUS62 KRAH 260804 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 404 AM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will dominate the eastern United States through the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/... As of 310 AM Thursday... The surface ridge will amplify swwd through central NC through this morning and remain over the area through tonight. As of 06Z, the layer of marine stratus has spread over much of the Coastal Plain and into the eastern Piedmont. This stratus will continue spreading westward through the area over the next few hours and remain through daybreak before lifting and/or scattering out through mid-day. Additionally, with increased isentropic lift as relatively warm, moist air advects over the cool surface ridge, clouds may also develop in the 700mb to 850mb layer. Cannot rule out a brief period of light rain/drizzle over the far western Piedmont as a result, but for now expect that threat to be mainly west of the area. While cloud cover this aft/eve should be a bit more scattered across the SE half of central NC, broken/overcast skies are expected to prevail over the NW. Temperatures this morning should generally range from mid/upper 40s north to mid 50s south. Highs to range from mid 60s NW to mid 70s SE. With continued isentropic lift over the NW Piedmont tonight, expect cloud bases to lower once again, with a period of light rain/drizzle possible. Elsewhere the weather should remain dry through tonight. Lows tonight ranging from mid/upper 40s NE to mid 50s SW. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 345 AM Friday... Within a high amplitude mid-level ridge that will extend across the ern US, a 319-320 dam anticyclone at 700 mb will become firmly established over the Carolinas. At the surface, 1035 mb, cP high centered just off the srn New England coast at 12Z Sat will weaken and modify while drifting swd and just off the Middle Atlantic coast through 12Z Sun, during which time surface winds over cntl NC will veer from ely to sly. A band of 700 mb-centered saturation and altocumulus will linger across the srn Middle Atlantic, in generally nly flow around the aforementioned anticyclone centered over the Carolinas. A combination of that cloudiness and passing high-level moisture, some remnant to strong-severe convection upstream across the Plains and MS Valley, will yield partly to variably cloudy conditions over cntl NC. Temperatures will moderate with modification of the surface high and airmass, and veering surface flow, with highs ranging from upr 60s-low 70s across the nrn Coastal Plain and far ne Piedmont to upper 70s-near 80 in the srn Piedmont. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 400 AM Friday... Unseasonably warm and mainly dry. A slowly progressive, high amplitude ridge in the mid-levels will drift across and offshore the South and Middle Atlantic through Tuesday, downstream of a weak shortwave trough that will progress through the region late Tue-Tue night. Low amplitude, quasi-zonal flow will then prevail across the srn mid-latitudes and including cntl NC through mid-late next week, poleward of an expansive sub- tropical ridge that will extend from the swrn N. Atlantic wwd and across the Gulf of Mexico. At the surface, cP high pressure will continue to migrate swd along and just offshore the Middle and South Atlantic coasts through early next week. As the high drifts swd and steadily modifies, it will direct warm sswly flow across cntl NC throughout mid-late next week. It still appears the synoptic frontal zone will remain to the north and west of cntl NC throughout the forecast period, while a pre- frontal/lee trough will otherwise assume an average position across the srn Middle Atlantic Piedmont. Only isolated, diurnally-driven convection will result in cntl NC, with the relative best chance over the far wrn NC Piedmont Tue afternoon-evening (~30 percent), when the aforementioned weak shortwave trough moves across the region and interacts with the lee trough there. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 155 AM Friday... 24 hour TAF period: Expect cigs to gradually become MVFR then IFR from NNE to SSW over the next few hours. Lowest cigs at KRDU/KRWI, possibly dropping below 500 ft. Cigs should lift/scatter through the morning hours, with a return to VFR at all terminals by early aft. Otherwise, expect VFR conditions to dominate through 03Z Sat, with a redevelopment of some MVFR cigs and some light rain/drizzle will be possible at KINT/KGSO during the last few hours of the TAF period. Outlook: While the MVFR cigs will be most prevalent at KINT/KGSO through Sat morn, cannot rule out some sct/bkn low stratus elsewhere around daybreak Sat. While more uncertain at this time, there may also be some borderline VFR/MVFR cigs Sun morn as well. Otherwise, largely VFR conditions are expected through Tue. There is also a non- zero chance for some patchy light rain, mainly in the Triad, Fri night/Sat, otherwise generally dry weather is expected through Mon. The next chance for showers will be Tue aft/eve. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Green NEAR TERM...KC SHORT TERM...MWS LONG TERM...MWS AVIATION...KC ####018007061#### FXUS61 KAKQ 260805 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 405 AM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure remains centered over New England today. High pressure slides offshore tonight, moving south into early next week with a ridge building over the area and temperatures well above normal through next week. An unsettled pattern sets up from Tuesday through late next week with daily chances for showers and storms. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 325 AM EDT Friday... Onshore flow has resulted in a stratus layer over NE NC and SW VA early this morning. While some redevelopment of this stratus layer is possible (mainly across NE NC), satellite trends suggest CAMs are overdoing sky cover with most areas currently under clear or partly cloudy skies along the coast. A mixture of cirrus and stratus remain inland early this morning with mostly cloudy to partly clear skies. Temps as of 3 AM ranged from the upper 30s across interior portions of the MD Eastern Shore to low-mid 40s inland and upper 40s to around 50F along the coast. Morning lows a degree or two cooler. Inland portions of the lower Maryland Eastern Shore should see clearing early this morning, and with decoupling winds, could see lows in the mid to upper 30s just before sunrise. This could result in patchy frost in typically cooler, more sheltered areas, but given the short window of time, don't expect widespread frost. Clouds clear across E portions of the FA by this afternoon with at least scattered clouds (partly to mostly cloudy) lingering across W portions of the area through the day. Highs today in the mid-upper 60s inland and upper 50s along the coast. However, if clouds remain thick enough across W portions of the FA, temps will end up cooler than currently forecast (low-mid 60s). Otherwise, dry today with increasing clouds tonight and a slight chance of a brief, light shower across far W portions of the FA late tonight. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 325 AM EDT Friday... A ridge builds over the area Sat, building into early next week with a warmup expected. However, the warm air will be delayed until Sun due to high pressure lingering off the New England coast on Sat allowing for one more day of cool, onshore flow. A weak piece of shortwave energy moves towards the area Sat and may provide just enough forcing (combined with isentropic ascent over the cooler airmass in place) for isolated, light showers across N portions of the FA. Models continue to be in disagreement with global models showing more coverage than hi-res models. As such, have kept PoPs at slight chance. Any showers taper off Sat evening with dry weather Sun as the high moves S and winds become SW. Highs in the lower 60s NE to around 70F SW Sat and upper 70s to lower 80s Sun. Lows in the lower 50s (upper 40s across the MD Eastern Shore) Sat night and upper 50s to around 60F Sun night. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 340 AM EDT Friday... The ridge builds over the area early next week, becoming less amplified by midweek, but lingering through the week regardless with well above normal temps expected. Highs in the mid-upper 80s Mon-Thu for most. The warmest days look to be Mon and Tue with highs potentially approaching 90F for some. Next week will not only "feel" Summer-like due to warm temperatures but also in the sense that an unsettled pattern develops from Tue-Fri with daily chances for showers/storms. Several shortwaves move through the area during this time, however, global models disagree with timing for each of these subtle features. As such, have maintained a slight chance to chance PoP each afternoon/evening for showers/storms from mid-late week with the greatest chance on Fri (30-35% PoPs) as a cold front approaches from the W. Highs also look to be a touch cooler on Fri (upper 70s to lower 80s). Lows remain mild through the week in the upper 50s to lower 60s. && .AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 140 AM EDT Friday... Generally light and variable winds inland and NE winds 5-10 kt along the coast continue until sunrise with E/ENE winds increasing to 5-10 kt inland and 10-15 kt with some gusts to 20 kt after mid morning today. Given the onshore flow, a low stratus layer continues to linger across far S VA and mainly NE NC early this morning with IFR CIGs. Satellite trends suggest this cloud deck will continue to move SW with CAMs suggesting some redevelopment is possible near ECG. As such, have a TEMPO for IFR CIGs at ECG through 10z with prevailing MVFR conditions (~1000 ft CIGs). Elsewhere, CIGs were generally VFR/MVFR with additional stratus possible at RIC/PHF/ORF through mid-late morning. Clouds push W of I-95 by this afternoon with VFR conditions returning under mostly sunny skies for the local terminals (partly cloudy at RIC). Outlook: Dry/VFR conditions are expected at all terminals through the weekend. && .MARINE... As of 245 AM EDT Friday... Early this morning, high pressure remains centered over New England. Winds are generally out of NE and range from 10 to 15 knots over the Chesapeake Bay/rivers and 15 to 20 knots over the coastal waters. Winds will continue at similar speeds for much of the day today, before gradually diminishing later this evening into tonight. High pressure remains over the Northeast US or just offshore today through Saturday which will lead to continued onshore flow. As a result, seas remain elevated around or in excess of 5 feet today into tonight, before a gradual diminishing trend on Saturday. SCAs remain in effect for the coastal waters (and mouth of the bay) through late this evening. High pressure builds into the area this weekend before becoming suppressed to the south next week. Winds become southerly late Saturday night into Sunday, and then S to SW later Sunday into the middle of the week, generally ranging around 10 to 15 knots. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As of 400 AM EDT Friday... A prolonged period of NE flow is expected to last into the weekend. Mainly nuisance flooding is possible across the lower bay, James River, VA Atlantic- facing beaches, eastern Currituck County, and Dorchester County early this morning. As such, Coastal Flood Statements remain in effect for these locations. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ634-650- 652-654-656. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ658. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RMM NEAR TERM...RMM SHORT TERM...RMM LONG TERM...RMM AVIATION...RMM MARINE...AJB TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... ####018003482#### FXUS65 KREV 260808 AFDREV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 108 AM PDT Fri Apr 26 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Cooler weather along with periods of showers and thunderstorms will persist through early Saturday. Potential thunderstorm risks include gusty outflow winds, dangerous lightning, and localized heavy rain and/or small hail. Drier weather and a slow warming trend are expected to return Sunday through the middle of next week. && .DISCUSSION... Key Points: * Cooler with showers through Saturday Morning: Widespread valley rain and mountain snow showers will be possible today through early Saturday morning. Sierra passes may see snow, but recent warmth will limit impacts. Today will be the coldest day of the week as temperatures back down below normal. Yay. * Weekend Outlook: A few light lingering showers may stray by Saturday morning, but otherwise the trend will shift to warmer and drier conditions for much of the weekend. Plan on temperatures warming back up to near normal and then rising above normal by early to mid next week. * It's gonna be May: There are still signals for additional storms to push through the region late next week. Enhanced breezes, cooler temperatures and showers are all possible for the first few days of May. The main trough along with its cold front will drive through the Sierra and western Nevada today and kick off some more showers across the region as well as some brisk northwest breezes. There is 15-20% chance for a thunderstorm or two, so be prepared if you're outdoors for any rapid changes in the weather. Rain totals will be relatively meager, but a welcome bit of moisture for the May flowers. Chances for 0.5" of QPF are around 40% the Central Sierra and 30-40% for the Tahoe Basin and Eastern Sierra. Chances for over 0.1" of QPF are around 30-40% for far western Nevada and northeast California valleys, and 70-80% for the Basin & Range. Keep an eye out for some light accumulations along the Sierra passes, especially through this morning. Otherwise, the main trough migrates eastward across the Rockies on Saturday leaving behind drier conditions and a warming trend through Wednesday. Plan on typical afternoon breezes each day under the influence of zonal, westerly flow. Roughly 60% of the ensemble solutions signal for more active weather to return by late next week. So May is hedging toward a cooler and possibly wetter outlook for now. -Edan && .AVIATION... * Light rain showers overnight will taper off for western Nevada terminals while Sierra showers will persist for much of the day as the cold front pushes through the region today. Heavier rain and high elevation (above 7000 ft) snow showers are expected to arrive around 19z for Sierra terminals and 21z for western Nevada terminals. * FL100 winds will shift to NW and decrease after 21z. Surface wind gusts will be around 20-25 kts for most terminals, although gusty and erratic winds near thunderstorms will be possible (20% chance). * Showers will dissipate rapidly after Sat 04z for all terminals. Plan on VFR conditions with typical breezes Saturday and Sunday. -Edan && .REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NV...None. CA...None. && $$