####018008602#### FXUS63 KFSD 161701 AFDFSD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD 1201 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Unseasonably warm temperatures, very low humidity, and breezy southwest wind gusts lead to near critical and critical fire danger on Thursday. A Red Flag Warning has been issued for areas along and west of US Highway 59. Elevated to near critical fire danger persists through Saturday. - A strong cold front moves through the area late tonight into Friday. Behind the front, much cooler air moves in and any rain may briefly change to a wintry mix and/or snow near and north of US Highway 14. && .UPDATE... Issued at 328 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 More benign weather to start this Thursday, with temperatures in the upper 30s to lower 50s and clear skies over the area. Light winds at the time of this discussion will begin to increase toward daybreak and shift more to the southwest. Although a couple of sites are showing less than 10 SM of visibility, winds look to be just strong enough to prevent fog development. Forecast remains on track today with very warm temperatures in the 80s and very low humidity. These factors combined with the breezy to strong southwesterly winds gusting to around 35 mph lead to near critical and critical fire conditions. Red Flag Warnings are in effect this afternoon and evening. More details in the Fire Weather section. Use extreme caution to prevent sparks and fire starts; fires will spread quickly today! Breezy to gusty winds continue tonight as a cold front moves through into early Friday. Wind gusts of 30-40 mph expected. Temperatures fall back to below seasonal normals behind the cold front. Elevated fire danger continues Friday. No change to the Day 2 SPC Outlook for severe weather potential, which shows a Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk for areas southeast of Ida Grove to Storm Lake. Confidence in storm development in our area is low (less than 30%) with most guidance already pushing the cold front through our area by late morning. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 220 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Strong to severe thunderstorms have stayed south and west of the area thus far today. Instability has been marginally supportive of at least some occasional rumbles of thunder today, and as we reach the peak of daytime heating, a few more hundred J/kg of CAPE will develop. This may lead to slightly better coverage of thunderstorms mainly south of a Sioux Rapids to Sioux City, IA line, but the chances for severe weather look quite low. There's still around 45-55 kts of bulk shear, so if a decent updraft can get going and sustain itself, then quarter sized hail cannot be ruled out. This threat ends around 6 pm as storms move off to the east. Quiet weather expected tonight as the main upper wave responsible for the rain moves off to our east. Lows tonight drop to the middle 40s for the most part across the area by Thursday morning. Winds start turning more southwesterly heading into the day on Thursday, which will help usher in warmer and drier air into the area and leading to critical fire weather conditions. More on this in the fire weather discussion below. For Thursday night into the day on Friday, a deep trough extending from the northern Rockies into the Four Corners will move through the area. At the surface, a strong cold front will sweep across the area during the day on Friday. By 1 pm on Friday, deterministic and ensemble guidance has the front either just east of the IA/MN Highway 60 corridor or just east of the forecast area. These faster solutions will limit the potential for severe weather in our area as the better instability would develop off to our east. So still a low confidence severe weather forecast, but a very isolated strong to severe storm still remains possible over parts- Very patchy of northwest Iowa and southwest Minnesota early Friday afternoon if the cold front slows down or a storm is able to develop just before the front clears the area. Colder air will be rushing in behind the front as guidance is in good agreement of a strong push of cold air advection (CAA) following the frontal passage on Friday. This means for most of the area, the morning will be warmer than the afternoon, so dress accordingly! With the colder air moving in, any precipitation leftover behind the frontal passage could turn to a wintry mix or snow as the system exits the area. Latest guidance is trending towards our area drying out before the coldest air arrives, limiting the chance for wintry weather. There is a potential where at least some rain could turn to wintry precipitation along portions of the Highway 14 corridor Friday morning/early afternoon, but this would likely be short-lived and thus cause little impacts. Still time for things to change, so be sure to keep up to date with the latest forecast! This push of CAA will also lead to windy conditions Friday into Saturday, with northwesterly gusts to 30 to 40 mph expected both days, strongest on Friday. Temperature-wise, look for lows down into the 20s to lower 30s Saturday morning and then the 20s area- wide by Sunday morning. Highs on Saturday will struggle to make it to the 50s for the most part, coolest east of the Missouri River. Ridging aloft looks to build into the area heading into early next week, which will help bring about a warming trend with limited rain chances through the start of the next work week. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1158 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 South to southwest winds will gust to around 30 to 35 mph through the day and remain gusty tonight as well, with gusts around 25 mph more common. A cold front will move in later tonight in central SD then into southwest MN and northwest IA by late morning. Winds behind this front will gust to 30 to 40 mph. While precipitation chances are fairly low, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible near and east of I-29 on Friday morning along with some MVFR ceilings. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 328 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 Red Flag Warning has been expanded toward the US Hwy 59 corridor in southwestern MN and northwestern IA, now in effect from noon to 8 PM for most of the area. Areas in the Red Flag Warning have the highest confidence of minimum RH values at or below 25% and coincident southwest wind gusts around or above 25 mph. Further east, confidence is lower and duration of near to critical fire danger is shorter. Additionally, this area to the east has also seen the most precipitation over the last few days. Expansion east may be needed later today if we are drier and/or breezier than current forecast suggests. Extreme caution should be used today as any fire will likely spread quickly due to these strong winds and very low humidity values. Winds tonight remain breezy with a shift through the overnight hours from more southerly to northwesterly as a cold front swings through the area. Northwesterly winds remain strong on Friday, with gusts around 35-40 mph (strongest in south central SD). Cooler and falling temperatures with early day precipitation chances should keep minimum RH values above 35%. That said, elevated to possibly near critical conditions are expected with the strong winds, which may be enough to overcome higher RH in areas which have not received as much precipitation or have seen as much green up over the last few days. Breezy northwest winds remain in place Saturday gusting again 30-40 mph with temperatures near seasonal norms. Much drier air moves into the region though, which will plummet minimum RH values between 20 and 30% across the area. Again, elevated to near critical fire conditions are expected. && .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for SDZ038>040- 050-052>071. MN...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for MNZ071-072- 080-089-097-098. IA...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for IAZ001-012- 020-031. NE...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for NEZ013-014. && $$ UPDATE...SG DISCUSSION...Samet AVIATION...08 FIRE WEATHER...SG ####018007957#### FXUS63 KDVN 161701 AFDDVN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 1201 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A strong spring storm system will impact our area Friday afternoon and evening, where the SPC has highlighted our area in an Enhanced Risk (level 3 of 5) for severe weather. - Much cooler airmass moves in this weekend behind a cold front, bringing unseasonally cool temperatures back to the area. Temperatures in the 30s through the nighttime hours will bring the potential for frost/freeze, especially in our north. - Area rivers are on the rise from the recent rounds of heavy rain. Another round of heavy rain is forecast Friday night which may push river levels higher. Refer to the hydro section for more information. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 300 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 Today A shortwave trough and attendant surface low will shift east of the area today into the Lower Great Lakes. Mid-level height rises and a weak area of surface high pressure will build in through the day, setting up quiet conditions for a change with mainly dry weather expected. Temperatures will remain above normal due to plenty of sun pushing highs into the lower 70s north to mid 70s along I-80 and low 80s in the far southwest. Today will be a much needed break from the repeated rounds of showers and thunderstorms this week, especially for areas north of I-80 that have been hit the hardest with bouts of flooding. Friday Unfortunately, only a short reprieve from the active weather is expected as a deep upper trough and strong cold front move through the Midwest on Friday into Friday night. This system will set the stage for another round of severe storms across the Upper Mississippi Valley region with southerly flow ahead of the cold front advecting an anomalously warm and moist air mass northward. Forecast highs are in the mid 70s NW to mid 80s far south with dewpoints in the ~mid 60s on average, making it feel more like an early summer day than mid April. The atmosphere will become increasingly unstable into Friday afternoon/evening with SBCAPE building to 2000-3000 J/kg (per the HREF) which will coincide with notable 500mb height falls/large scale ascent. With the ample instability and sufficient deep layer shear (0-6 km between 35-45 kts), conditions will be favorable for organized convection and severe weather which may come in two rounds. The first round may be the development of isolated to scattered supercells or multicell clusters during the mid/late afternoon along a subtle pre- frontal trough axis, out ahead of the approaching strong cold front. Then the subsequent round looks to come in the form of a robust squall line/QLCS during the evening to early nighttime, bringing with it potential for significant straight-line winds and mesovortices/QLCS tornadoes. Friday could bring some significant severe weather to portions of the area with all severe weather hazards possible; the primary threats being damaging winds (possibly 70+ mph) and isolated tornadoes. Another potential hazard, given the wet antecedent conditions, is localized flash flooding for areas that get hit by repeated rounds of storms with locations north of I-80 most susceptible. SPC's latest severe outlook for Friday has an Enhanced Risk (level 3 of 5) area-wide and WPC has a Slight Risk for flash flooding (level 2 of 4). Continue to keep up with the forecast for Friday as we will be able to provide more details on timing, location, and specific hazards. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 300 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 This weekend, upper level flow becomes northwesterly behind the aforementioned shortwave. Modest cold advection will kick in, bringing much cooler air to the area. Daytime temperatures are set to be in the upper 40s to 50s through the weekend, which is quite the change to the 70s and 80s we have been seeing. Overnight lows will be in the 30s, with counties roughly along and north of I-80 seeing lows approaching freezing. Thus, our north half or so will have the chance to see a frost/freeze during this timeframe. Dry conditions are expected through the weekend, with mostly clear skies. Breezy NW winds will make it feel rather chilly, especially on Saturday. Going into next week, it looks like the upper level pattern becomes active again. There remains many differences amongst guidance, but precipitation chances return to the area by midweek, along with increasing temperatures. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 616 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 Areas of MVFR/IFR ceilings, and dense fog near CID, will diminish through the mid morning. This will set up prevailing VFR through the remainder of today and tonight. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 1136 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026 What has changed... River flood warnings have been issued for the Rock River from Como down to the mouth. River flood warnings have been issued for the lower Iowa River at Wapello and Oakville along with the Cedar River near Conesville. River flood warnings are now in effect for the Mississippi River from Muscatine down through Burlington and for Gregory Landing. A river flood watch has been issued for the Mississippi River at Dubuque. Discussion... Over the past five days multiple rounds of heavy rain have impacted eastern Iowa, northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin. Rainfall amounts have run from 2 to 5 inches of rain; much of this rain has been north of Highway 30. Another round of heavy rain is forecast Friday afternoon and night with amounts running from 1 to 2 plus inches. With area soils running from moist to near saturation, this additional rainfall will quickly run off into area waterways resulting in new or increased river flooding along with the potential for flash flooding. Much of this rain is forecast to fall across southeast Iowa, west central Illinois and into northern Illinois. River basins impacted would be the Rock, lower Iowa, Skunk, Des Moines and La Moine. Rock River... Based on overall river forecasts and another round of heavy rain expected Friday night, confidence is high (>80%) that the entire length of the Rock River will reach flood stage by the weekend and remain above flood stage into much of next week. Mississippi River... Routed flow from coming down from the upper Mississippi, Wisconsin, Rock, Iowa and other tributary rivers will cause general rises along the length of the Mississippi. Based on the current routed flow and another round of heavy rain, confidence is high (>80%) that the Mississippi will reach flood stage from Muscatine down through Keithsburg and at Gregory Landing. Gladstone and Burlington are already above flood stage and will see additional rises as the additional routed flow arrives over the weekend and into next week. Iowa Tributary Rivers... Rivers in eastern Iowa are running high from the rounds of heavy rain. Flood warnings continue for the lower Wapsipinicon River near DeWitt and the Iowa River above Coralville near Marengo. Based on routed flow, the lower Cedar River near Conesville will go above flood stage over the weekend. The North Skunk River near Sigourney is forecast to go above flood stage tonight into Friday with general rises expected further downstream and on the Skunk River. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...None. IL...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Uttech LONG TERM...Gunkel/Uttech AVIATION...Uttech HYDROLOGY...08 ####018003470#### FXUS66 KHNX 161701 AFDHNX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hanford CA 1001 AM PDT Thu Apr 16 2026 && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. A warming and drying trend is expected this weekend with temperatures rising to above average. 2. Another low pressure system brings strong winds through Friday morning within the Mojave Desert Slopes and Desert Floor. 3. An elevated risk for fire starts exists by the end of this week in eastern Kern County due to low humidity and increased winds. 4. Next chance for precipitation and cooler temperatures begins early next week. && .DISCUSSION... No precipitation chances as the inside slider moves across the area. Instead, it'll bring winds and cooler weather. Today, the valley floor will see breezy weather with sustained winds between 5 and 10 mph. Gusts are possible of over 20 mph. Along the Mojave Desert Slopes, a Wind Advisory has been issued, as they will see winds sustained at 20-25 mph with gusts upwards of 45 mph. Temperature wise, it'll be nice and cool today and tomorrow. The Northern CWA has a 90 percent chance (best case) of meeting and exceeding 70 degrees and a 10 percent chance (worst case) of meeting and exceeding 76 degrees. The Southern part has a best case of meeting and exceeding 72 degrees and a worst case of meeting and exceeding 79 degrees. These nice temps will be leaving us after Friday. Unfortunately, there is some ridging that will be building over the area throughout the weekend. By Sunday, north of Fresno County has a best case of meeting and exceeding 73 degrees and a worst case scenario of 79 degrees. South of Fresno is looking at best case 72 degrees and worst case 80 degrees. On Monday, these best case worst case scenarios get warmer. Fresno County and north of it is looking at best case of 80 degrees and worst case of 85 degrees. Working our way down south, the worst case scenario is 88 degrees. Let's hope for best case with would keep the southern CWA at 80 degrees. The next low pressure system is looking to get into the San Joaquin Valley by Monday morning and bring some chances of rainfall. Monday evening is looking to be a 20-30 percent chance of measurable precipitation that increases to 30 to 50 percent on the northern half of the CWA. For the southern half, there's a 10 to 20 percent chance for measurable rainfall Monday night. The old weatherman's adage of "closed low, meteorologist woe" remains true with this system. The possibility of precipitation extending into the middle of next week is possible, but there will be more certainty as we get closer. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions expected across the area for the next 24 hours. Surface winds gusting to G35KT across Mojave Desert after 06Z Thursday. && .AIR QUALITY ISSUES... None. && .CERTAINTY... The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium. Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback. && .HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory until 11 AM PDT Friday for CAZ338. Wind Advisory until 11 AM PDT Friday for CAZ337-339. && $$ public...BB aviation....BB weather.gov/hanford ####018007871#### FXUS65 KRIW 161703 AFDRIW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Riverton WY 1103 AM MDT Thu Apr 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A weather system will move across the state and bring snow and rain changing to snow today and tonight. The highest snowfall amounts will be in the western mountains. Gusty wind will bring blow and drift the snow at times. - A hard freeze is likely (4 out of 5 chance) in the lower elevations to the East of the Divide Friday night. - Drier and warmer weather returns for Sunday and early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 207 AM MDT Thu Apr 16 2026 There have times through my rather lengthy meteorology career that I have felt guilty for things. And this is a system when I am having these feelings. The last time I did the forecast, back on early Monday morning, it looked like we had a decent chance of some badly needed moisture across the area. However, trends for much of the area that need the moisture, like the Green River, Wind River and Big Horn Basins, have been for less and less moisture. At the time, chances looked rather good. Needless to say, chances have diminished substantially over the past few days. Radar now shows the first area of precipitation moving into western Wyoming. The cold front is still back in Idaho, so snow levels remain fairly high right now, generally above 7500 feet. Snow will levels will gradually drop through the night and day. As for highlights in western Wyoming, these still look reasonable. Probabilistic guidance shows at least a 2 out of 3 chance of 8 inches or more across most of the warned area. Thought about a Winter Weather Advisory for the Salt and Wyoming Range, but the only areas with a greater than 1 in 2 chance of 6 inches of new snow or more are the highest elevation above the mountain passes. So, we will hold off for now. In the valleys and lower elevations, no location has more than a 1 in 6 chance of 4 inches or more, so no highlights here. Some snow will continue through Thursday night, but the bulk of the snow will fall through midnight with light snow following that. In Sweetwater County, with some surface instability, snow squalls will be possible late today and this evening with the front, mainly to the east of Rock Springs. Amounts here should remain under 3 inches though. The only areas with a greater than 1 in 3 chance are across far southern Sweetwater County where impacts will be slim to none. Any snow squalls could be handled by short fused statements. And now on the area where I feel guilty, East of the Divide. Trends continue to be down in this area. I gave serious thought to canceling the advisories for the Wind River Basin and Lander foothills. However, I am holding off now for a few reasons. For one, guidance is indicating some instability, with up to 250 J/Kg of CAPE this afternoon with lifted indices as low as minus 1. In addition, the area will be under the right rear quadrant of the jet this evening. This could lead to some snow squalls as the front moves through the area this afternoon and evening. The other is a feature I saw on the GFS early this morning. There is the presence of a weak 700 millibar circulation around midnight tonight near the Natrona / Fremont County border, giving a decent amount of QPF (as much as a a quarter of an inch). If this further moves a bit further west, it could impact Riverton and Lander. Eastern portions of the basin still have a 1 in 2 chance of 3 inches of snow as well. So, we will leave them up for now. Highlights still look good for Johnson and Natrona Counties though, with most probabilistic guidance giving at least a 1 in 2 chance of 3 inches of snow or more. In this area, the highest impact will be Thursday night. Wind will also be an issue, especially in the favored northwest flow / cold advection locations, like Johnson County and the Bighorn Basin, bring blowing snow and more impacts with gusts over 40 mph at times later this afternoon and evening. Conditions should begin to improve on Friday as the trough and front move away to the east. Unstable northwest flow and cyclonic curvature will keep snow showers going through much of the day. Then we turn to Friday night with the potential for a freeze. As I have stated before, the concern is not with crops and gardens as Wyoming residents know not to plant this early. The main concern will be for flower gardens, trees and sprinkler systems. The variables remain the same. First, if it can clear out enough. Chances are better for this across the north and west, with decreasing chances further south. The other is snow cover, chances of lows below 20 have decreased somewhat across the Bighorn Basin and Wind River Basin with the smaller amounts of snow reducing albedo. Probabilistic guidance still gives a greater than 2 in 3 chance of lows below 25 across almost all the area though. We will hold off on any freeze products with the greater concern of the snow but some will likely be needed. The remainder of the forecast period looks largely tranquil as ridging builds back over the Rockies for this weekend and early next week. Temperatures will begin to moderate Saturday and likely return to near to above normal levels by Sunday for most. Most areas look dry and warm from Monday through at least Wednesday. The next system is the form of an upper level low may then approach for later next week with the next chance of moisture but these are very fickle this far out so details are still highly uncertain. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1100 AM MDT Thu Apr 16 2026 West of the Divide...KBPI/KJAC/KPNA/KRKS Terminals Shower chances less likely to start the period through the afternoon, carrying only PROB30 groups through 22Z with RKS best after 23Z. Beyond that, chances are near zero through the overnight hours as the precipitation shifts east by sunset this evening. Otherwise, windy conditions with peaks up to 25kts at JAC, 30kts at BPI/PNA, and up to 35kts at RKS. These winds will diminish towards sunset after 03Z with RKS remaining elevated overnight. Low but VFR ceilings will lift to the mid levels overnight as winds increase once again after 15-16Z Friday morning. East of the Divide...KCOD/KCPR/KLND/KRIW/KWRL Terminals Shower activity now unlikely (<10%) at LND/RIW carrying VCSH through the afternoon hours. Best chance at CPR after 01Z and overnight through sunrise Friday morning. RIW/LND will see the best chance in the Wind River Basin on the backside of the low between 08-13Z Friday morning but will be quick to push east by around if not before sunrise. Otherwise, winds gusty this afternoon up to 30-35kts, highest at RIW/CPR. Winds remaining elevated at these two sites overnight with all locations relatively light by 12Z Friday morning around 10-15kts or less. Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZDV and ZLC for the latest information on icing and turbulence forecasts. && .RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Storm Warning until 6 AM MDT Friday for WYZ001-002-012. Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM MDT Friday for WYZ008-009. Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM MDT Friday for WYZ010-011. Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM MDT Friday for WYZ014-015. Winter Weather Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 6 AM MDT Friday for WYZ016>018. Winter Weather Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to noon MDT Friday for WYZ019-020-022. && $$ DISCUSSION...Hattings AVIATION...Lowe ####018005891#### FXUS62 KMFL 161704 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 104 PM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1249 PM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026 - Generally benign weather continues through the end of the week. Above average temperatures could be likely over the weekend. - Dangerous rip currents will continue at all east coast beaches of South Florida through at least Friday evening. - Reduced visibilities and air quality will be possible across portions of the Naples metro due to smoke from the Newman Fire. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday) Issued at 227 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026 Benign weather conditions will prevail through the short term period as ridging remains established over the Gulf waters. This ridge of high pressure will help continue to promote subsidence across South Florida; that, along with an anomalous mass of dry air aloft (as evidenced by the 00z MFL sounding and ACARS data from KMIA/KFLL/KPBI), will help inhibit any mentionable chances for precipitation across the area today. Some moisture will begin to filter in near the surface on Friday, which could allow for some nuisance showers to form over the local Atlantic waters and the immediate East Coast. However, no appreciable rainfall accumulations are expected at this time. With easterly winds near the surface and persistent subsidence, temperatures will continue to warm up as we head into the weekend. Highs today and on Friday will reach the upper 80s and lower 90s over the southwest and interior FL, while they'll most likely cap out in the low 80s along the East Coast. Lows each day will drop into the 60s across the interior and low 70s along the coasts. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 227 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026 Conditions will remain generally unchanged over the weekend, but a gradual pattern change will begin to take hold across the continental US, which could result in unsettled weather early next week. Aloft, an upper-level trough will begin to dig across the Plains and the Eastern Seaboard this weekend, eroding the ridge over the Gulf and weakening the surface high. This gradual process will allow for some moisture to filter back into the region, with models PWATs surging back to near normal values for this time of the year (1.1- 1.3 inches). This could allow for some isolated rainshowers to develop Saturday and Sunday afternoons, especially along any sea breeze boundaries that manage to develop. Conditions could begin to deteriorate early next week as an attendant surface low associated with the upper-level trough develops and moves across the Great Lakes region. As it does, it will drag a cold front south towards the Florida peninsula. Most model guidance shows this front dropping along the peninsula early in the week, clearing the area by midweek. Ahead of the front, chances for rainfall increased across the region, especially Monday evening and Tuesday. However, much uncertainty remains with this solution; a deeper, faster trough (and thus a stronger, faster front) could result in generally drier conditions for our area, while a slower, weaker trough could lead to higher QPFs for the region. For now, the NBM supports a slightly deeper, faster solution with 30-40% PoPs each day, and QPFs less than 1 inch. We will continue to monitor this solution as the forecast evolves. Above average temperatures will be likely this weekend as weak easterly flow prevails, with highs in the upper 80s and lower 90s each afternoon. Conditions could cool back down to more seasonable temperatures once the front moves across the area, with highs next week in the upper 70s and lower 80s. Lows each night could dip into the 50s across the interior, and down to the 60s along the coasts. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 105 PM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026 VFR conditions expected to continue during the next 24 hours at all terminals. For the Atlantic terminals, easterly winds around 10kts with occasional gusts to 20kt will continue through around 22-23Z, then decreasing into the 5-8kt range overnight. For APF, a Gulf breeze will prevail through around 00Z then becoming L/V. && .MARINE... Issued at 227 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026 A moderate breeze will prevail across the local Atlantic waters as high pressure remains in place over the region. Lighter winds will set up over the Gulf waters. Seas will drop to 2-4 ft in the Atlantic and remain 2 feet or less in the Gulf. Another period of breezy, hazardous conditions could approach early next week with the passage of a cold front. && .BEACHES... Issued at 227 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026 Strong onshore flow will promote a high risk of rip currents across the Atlantic coastline through Friday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 71 85 71 86 / 10 10 0 0 West Kendall 67 87 69 88 / 10 0 0 0 Opa-Locka 71 86 71 88 / 10 10 0 0 Homestead 71 85 72 86 / 10 10 0 0 Fort Lauderdale 71 82 72 83 / 10 10 0 0 N Ft Lauderdale 71 82 72 84 / 10 10 0 0 Pembroke Pines 72 88 73 88 / 10 10 0 0 West Palm Beach 70 83 71 85 / 10 10 0 0 Boca Raton 71 82 72 84 / 10 10 0 0 Naples 66 87 69 88 / 0 0 0 0 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through Friday evening for FLZ168-172-173. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...ATV LONG TERM....ATV AVIATION...17