####018003075#### FXUS66 KSGX 141845 AFDSGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Diego CA 1145 AM PDT Fri Aug 14 2026 .SYNOPSIS... Subtle monsoonal moisture will provide a slight chance of showers across the mountains and adjacent deserts this afternoon and Saturday afternoon. A trough offshore will keep temperatures slightly below average through the weekend. A ridge of high pressure will expand by next week, leading to a warmer and drier weather trend across Southern California. && .DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE... SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES... The marine layer deepened much more this morning with the passing of high clouds pushing to the east. Clouds will continue to erode near the coast, though there may be only intermittent clearing at the beaches into the afternoon, especially in San Diego County. A trough offshore will keep temperatures below normal again today into the weekend. Highs will remain in the 80s and 90s for most valley, foothill, and high desert locations during this time period. High pressure to the east and the trough to the west will help funnel in some monsoonal moisture through the weekend as well, making it feel more on the humid side. Lack of instability and drier southwest flow aloft remains the biggest proponent of any widespread storm activity, so rain chances remain small across the mountains and adjacent deserts. Moisture decreases slightly by Saturday, moreso into Sunday. If any rain falls over the next couple of days, it will be light and localized. High pressure begins to expand by next week. By Monday, temperatures will warm to near seasonal averages. The high expands a bit further into the middle of next week, where temperatures will peak around 5 degrees above average. This trend will also lead to drier and lower humidity across the board. The marine layer is expected to remain in a healthy and shallower state next week as well, covering coastal areas and far western valleys with clouds and patchy fog each night and morning. && .AVIATION... 141730Z....Coast/Valleys...After morning clearing by 19Z, expect low clouds around 1800-2000 feet MSL to redevelop after 01Z. First forming in San Diego County, extending northward and gradually filling many of the valleys overnight. Vis reduced far inland 1-5SM. Scatter out Saturday 16-18Z. Mountains/Deserts...SCT to locally BKN clouds 100000 feet MSL and a slight chance of TSRA mainly over mountains and high desert through 01Z. Otherwise, mostly clear. && .MARINE... No hazardous marine conditions are expected through Tuesday. && .SKYWARN... Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions. && .SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...None. && $$ PUBLIC...APR AVIATION/MARINE...MM ####018004831#### FXUS63 KARX 141845 AFDARX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service La Crosse WI 145 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers and some storms (40 to 60%) later this afternoon and evening. The heavy rain threat continues to push further south as there is a 10 to 25% chance of 1" or more of rain. - More showers and storms are possible (20 to 40%) Saturday afternoon and evening along a cold front. - After dry conditions for Sunday and Monday, widespread storm chances return Tuesday (50 to 80%). && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 144 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026 Today - Saturday: Heavy Rain Trending South Looking at current observations and satellite analysis, there is an MCV that is situated over western Iowa with a boundary positioned over northern Iowa. This boundary will gradually shift northward through the afternoon and evening. The MCV will move eastward providing central and eastern Iowa with a chance for severe storms. As for the boundary across northern Iowa, this will provide the area with scattered showers and some rumbles of thunder during the later afternoon and evening hours. The majority of the instability stays in Iowa, so northeast Iowa has the best chance (20 to 40%) for a thunderstorm developing this afternoon and evening. The trend for any heavy rain has continued to shift further south as the axis of heavy rain is now more along I-80. While the ERO may have a slight risk for excessive rainfall this evening and early overnight, the chances for this happening continue to dwindle given that the better forcing will remain out of our forecast area. The MCV will move eastward across central Iowa and as the LLJ increases this evening, will provide widespread heavy rainfall for eastern Iowa and western Illinois. A few days ago there was higher potential for this band of heavy rain to impact northeast Iowa and southwest Wisconsin, however similar to each of the MCS's that have went south of the forecast area, this too has trended further south. Some leftover showers are possible (10 to 20%) for the morning and early afternoon, but the better chances for rain on Saturday arrive with a cold front during the late afternoon/early evening. Instability increases as 1000 to 1500 J/kg of MUCAPE build into the region so showers and isolated storms will be possible during this timeframe. There is a little uncertainty on the exact coverage of storms along this front, but for right now the coverage looks to be more isolated (20 to 40%) for showers and storms. Given the instability and weaker shear, if any stronger storm develops, there may be some strong outflow winds from these storms. Sunday - Midweek: Dry Early, More Storm Chances by Tuesday Zonal flow becomes the dominant flow pattern through midweek. A surface high passes through the Upper Midwest on Sunday and Monday giving way to mostly dry conditions and high temperatures in the mid 70s to low 80s. Heading into Tuesday, a shortwave trough moves through the region. Moisture tries to get pulled northward as PWATs get into the 1.25 to 1.50" range. Enough 0-6km shear (45 to 60kts) will be in place where the forcing is the best that severe storms could be possible, however this is highly uncertain right now due to differences amongst models in where the best forcing will be, how the cold front from the night before impacts where storms initiate on Tuesday, and how much recovery can take place. AI and ML guidance also highlight this day with some low probabilities for severe weather to occur. Details regarding the storm potential will be refined as we get closer, but this is something to monitor. After the trough exits the region on Thursday, ensemble and deterministic data support a switch back to northwest flow, which could lead to slightly cooler temperatures for the latter half of next week. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1230 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026 Lurking area of widespread MVFR/IFR stratus and rain potential exists across central IA as of issuance time and should spread back northward and affect both LSE/RST with RST more likely (60%) to see IFR conditions tonight. Rain and TS potential has decreased since last issuance but have still included PROB30 MVFR shower mentions at both TAF sites. Aside from the lower clouds and SHRA potential, expect southeast winds to be predominant along with widespread mid level cloudiness around 15 kft. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. MN...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Cecava AVIATION...Ferguson ####018008842#### FXCA62 TJSJ 141845 AFDSJU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Juan PR 245 PM AST Fri Aug 14 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 245 PM AST Fri Aug 14 2026 - A tropical wave known as Invest 92L will move across the Caribbean Sea, increasing moisture across the area from late Saturday into Sunday morning. Therefore, residents can expect an increase in fast-moving showers. - The U.S. Virgin Islands might experience passing showers from Saturday afternoon into Sunday due to Invest 92L. - Saharan dust particles will remain across the region for the rest of today into Saturday morning. - Hazardous marine and coastal conditions are forecast through the weekend. For more detailed information, please refer to the Marine and Beach Forecast sections. && .Short Term(This evening through Sunday)... Issued at 245 PM AST Fri Aug 14 2026 The day started with fair weather conditions as a drier airmass prevailed over the region. The TJSJ 14/12Z upper-air sounding indicated precipitable water values around 1.35 inches, which is considered below normal. Dry air in the mid-levels, accompanied by a persistent trade-wind cap, have been preventing deep vertical cloud development across most of the area. Hazy skies have persisted as moderate to locally high concentrations of Saharan dust remain over the region through at least Saturday (tomorrow) afternoon, as another pulse arrives during the overnight and Saturday morning based on the latest guidance models. Temperatures have been reaching the low 90s across coastal and urban areas, while heat indices have reached Heat Advisory criteria, with the highest observed values around 110-111°F. Winds have been predominantly from the east-southeast at 15 to 25 mph, with some sea-breeze variations influencing the local wind direction. Gusts have occasionally exceeded 28 mph, particularly across exposed and coastal areas. As a result, a Heat Advisory remains in effect until 6 PM AST this afternoon, and a Fire Danger Statement until 4 PM AST. For the remainder of the afternoon and through Saturday, hazy skies, breezy conditions, and generally limited rainfall are expected to persist. Moisture will increase Saturday night into Sunday as Invest 92L and its associated moisture field approach the eastern Caribbean. Current guidance generally suggests AL92 will move as a tropical wave, with the bulk of the deeper moisture remaining well south of the local islands over the Caribbean waters. Nevertheless, PWAT values are expected to increase to around 1.7 to 1.9 inches on Sunday, supporting a gradual increase in overnight and morning passing showers, followed by locally driven afternoon convection across Puerto Rico. Winds will remain breezy to windy, and any shower will be fast-moving, reducing the chance to observe significant accumulations. The strongest convection on Sunday may bring locally heavy rainfall, isolated thunderstorms, and gusty winds, but a widespread rainfall event is not expected. Overall, through Saturday, heat, fire weather, and breezy to locally windy conditions will remain the primary concerns, while Sunday will bring a better chance for showers and thunderstorms as peripheral moisture associated with AL92 briefly reaches the region, but no widespread rain event in anticipated. && .Long Term(Monday through Friday)... Issued at 230 AM AST Fri Aug 14 2026 Variable conditions are expected through the period, with generally east to east-southeast winds and increasing uncertainty late next week. On Monday, moisture trailing AL92 may support passing windward showers and afternoon thunderstorms across western Puerto Rico. Another increase in Saharan dust is also possible. A trade-wind perturbation may pass late Monday into Tuesday, but latest guidance keeps most of its activity north of the islands. Ponding of water and localized minor flooding remain possible with heavier afternoon showers. A more seasonal pattern is expected Tuesday through Thursday as PWAT gradually increases to 1.5 to 1.7 inches. An upper-level low will also cool 500 mb temperatures to around -6 to -7 degrees C, increasing instability. Nighttime and morning windward showers will be followed by afternoon showers and isolated thunderstorms across interior and western Puerto Rico, particularly Tuesday and Wednesday. The flood threat should remain limited, mainly involving ponding of water, although localized urban and small-stream flooding cannot be ruled out. Forecast uncertainty increases Thursday into Friday as the National Hurricane Center monitors AL94 southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Global guidance generally brings the system toward the northeastern Caribbean late next week, but differences remain in timing and intensity, including whether development occurs before the system encounters a less favorable environment. Continue to monitor the latest NHC forecasts. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 245 PM AST Fri Aug 14 2026 Mainly VFR conds across TAF sites. Moderate to locally high concentrations of Saharan dust are resulting in VIS reductions at least thru Saturday afternoon. Another aviation concern are the breezy to windy conditions, winds slightly reducing overnight but overall, but aft 15/12-14Z will become gusty up to 30 to 32 kts across all TAF sites. Recent PIREPs indicate LLWS at TIST, and this conditions will remain possible throughout the forecast period. && .MARINE... Issued at 245 PM AST Fri Aug 14 2026 A surface high pressure over the central Atlantic will maintain a tight pressure gradient across the northeastern Caribbean, promoting fresh to locally strong easterly winds and choppy to hazardous marine conditions through the weekend. Seas will generally build to around 7 feet, with occasional seas of 8 to 9 feet across the offshore waters and local passages. Therefore, Small Craft Advisories remain in effect through at least Sunday. On Saturday into Sunday, showers and thunderstorms are expected to increase as a tropical wave associated with Invest 92L approaches and passes mainly south of the region. The Caribbean waters and southern portions of the local passages are expected to experience the greatest increase in shower and thunderstorm activity, with locally stronger and gusty winds possible, resulting in hazardous seas conditions. && .BEACH FORECAST... Issued at 245 PM AST Fri Aug 14 2026 A broad surface high pressure over the Central Atlantic and a tropical wave will hold breezy conditions along the CWA. This will hold choppy to hazardous surf conditions across the local beaches through the weekend. As a result, a high risk of life-threatening rip currents will persist along most beaches of Puerto Rico, Vieques, Culebra, and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Rip Current Statements remain in effect through late Saturday night. Beaches along western Puerto Rico are expected to remain under a moderate risk for the upcoming days. Beachgoers are urged to exercise caution, swim near lifeguards, and follow beach patrol flags and posted signs. Additionally, breezy to windy conditions along exposed coastal areas may blow around unsecured objects. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 245 PM AST Fri Aug 14 2026 Surface observations have been showing winds and minimum relative humidity values reaching the critical fire weather thresholds today. Combined with dry fuels and strong easterly winds is favoring rapid fire spread, particularly across the southern coastal plain and adjacent slopes of Puerto Rico. A Fire Danger Statement remains in effect until 4 PM AST. Dry and breezy conditions will continue through much of Saturday before increasing moisture Saturday night into Sunday raises relative humidity and reduces fire weather concerns. && .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...High Rip Current Risk through late Sunday night for PRZ001>003- 005-007-008-011>013. Heat Advisory until 6 PM AST this evening for PRZ001>005-007-008- 010>013. VI...High Rip Current Risk through late Sunday night for VIZ001-002. Heat Advisory until 6 PM AST this evening for VIZ001-002. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM AST Sunday for AMZ711-723-733- 741. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM AST Saturday for AMZ712-716-726- 735. && $$ SHORT TERM/AVIATION/FIRE...YZR LONG TERM...MNG MARINE/BEACH...LIS ####018007656#### FXUS61 KAKQ 141846 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 246 PM EDT Fri Aug 14 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... The forecast remains on track this afternoon. There is a marginal risk of severe weather through this evening, followed by a slightly drier and seasonable day for Saturday. Heat and humidity, as well as increasing shower/storm chances return Sunday and Monday. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) A wave of low pressure along a weakening frontal boundary brings scattered showers and storms to the area this afternoon into tonight. There is a Marginal Risk of severe storms across much of the forecast area this afternoon. 2) Seasonable on Saturday, becoming more unsettled again for Sunday. 3) Hot and humid with afternoon storms Monday ahead of the next cold front. && .DISCUSSION... As of 245 PM EDT Friday... KEY MESSAGE 1...A wave of low pressure along a weakening frontal boundary brings scattered showers and storms to the area this afternoon into tonight. There is a Marginal Risk of severe storms across much of the forecast area this afternoon. This afternoon, a weak, diffuse frontal boundary is located from roughly central VA over to the Middle Peninsula. South of the boundary, a very hot and humid airmass is in place with temperatures ranging from the upper 80s to mid 90s and dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s. The hot temperatures combined with the high humidity have allowed for heat index values to climb to ~100 to 105 degrees, with readings of 105+ across northeast North Carolina where a Heat Advisory remains in effect until 7 PM. Convective initiation has started along and just north of the boundary where we have already seen a couple of severe storms, one near Newport News and one just south of Salisbury, MD. Strong diurnal heating has destabilized the airmass, with MLCAPE values ~2000-3000 J/kg south of the boundary. Deep-layer shear is fairly weak along and south of the boundary (~20 to 25 knots) and strongest across the far northeast (~35 to 40 knots). Expect mainly pulse activity with potentially a few bowing segments as we head through the afternoon/evening. Damaging wind gusts of 50 to 60 mph are possible with the strongest storms. SPC has a majority of the area in a Marginal (1 out of 5 risk) for severe storms this afternoon. In addition, high moisture content (PWATs 2.0+") will yield high rain rates and local urban or poor drainage flooding. Any storms push SSE into North Carolina this evening before gradually tapering off after ~02z (10 PM). KEY MESSAGE 2...Seasonable on Saturday, becoming more unsettled again for Sunday. Surface high pressure north of the Great Lakes ridges south into the Mid-Atlantic on Saturday, pushing the surface boundary off to our S/SW. Light E-NE flow will usher in a slightly drier and more seasonable airmass with highs in the upper 80s. Most areas stay dry on Saturday, but isolated to scattered showers/storms will be possible in the afternoon, especially near the NC border. On Sunday, the expansive ridge over the Southern US begins to break down as a trough digs over the Midwest. Return southerly flow brings the heat and tropical moisture back into the region. Scattered to widespread afternoon/evening thunderstorms return for Sunday. Thunderstorms will again have the potential to produce strong to severe wind gusts, with SPC placing the entire forecast area in a Day 3 Marginal (1 out of 5) risk for severe storms. Locally heavy rainfall will also be possible with any of these storms and isolated instances of flooding, especially in urban or poor drainage areas, will be possible. KEY MESSAGE 3...Hot and humid with afternoon storms Monday ahead of the next cold front. Hot, humid conditions likely peak on Monday ahead of an approaching cold front. Highs in the low to mid 90s, combined with elevated humidity will likely necessitate additional Heat Advisories for at least our southern/southeastern counties. Scattered showers and storms are also expected Monday afternoon/evening along the frontal boundary. Drier and slightly cooler conditions arrive Tuesday into midweek. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 150 PM EDT Friday... Early this afternoon, a weak surface boundary stretches from central Virginia over to the Middle Peninsula. Showers and thunderstorms have started to develop along and north of the boundary this afternoon, with the strongest storm currently just south of PHF. Any storms will have the potential to produce gusty winds and brief IFR VSBY restrictions. Outside of storms, VFR conditions prevail this afternoon. Surface winds ahead of the boundary are light out of the W/SW ~5 to 10 knots, shifting to the WNW/N behind the boundary. Scattered showers and storms will continue to build in coverage across the area this afternoon and gradually progress S/SE. Activity gradual tapers off from north to south after sunrise, eventually moving south of the area overnight. Localized MVFR/IFR stratus and/or ground fog may develop later tonight into the early morning hours of Saturday, but confidence is low. Quieter conditions return on Saturday, with most of the shower activity west of the main terminals. Outlook: Scattered aftn/evening showers/storms are possible Sunday through Monday bringing the potential for occasional sub-VFR conditions. Lower shower/storm chances Tuesday through Wednesday. && .MARINE... As of 245 PM EDT Friday... Key Message: - Sub-SCA marine conditions are expected to prevail through the upcoming weekend. - Marginal Small Craft Advisory conditions could develop as southerly flow increases early Monday morning. Generally benign conditions in place this afternoon. Surface analysis places a weak stationary boundary and low pressure system near the waters and these features will focus showers and storms for portions of the local area this afternoon and evening. Locally higher winds and waves would be expected in any storm core. Sub-SCA conditions are expected to prevail through most of the weekend. The boundary drops south tonight with a NE wind direction developing and persisting through most of Saturday. Wind speeds will generally be 10-12 kt with gusts upwards of 15 kt or so. Seas bump up closer to 3 ft Saturday, but remain well below any SCA thresholds. Winds become easterly Saturday night and then S-SE Sunday. A period of elevated winds is possible in the southerly flow period later Sunday night into Monday morning, though again, likely remaining predominately sub-SCA. Still, a brief period of low-end SCA gusts cannot be completely ruled out for late Sun night/early Monday morning. Thereafter, light flow (10 kt or less) is generally favored Monday through the middle of next week. Rip Currents: A low rip current risk continues today. NE flow and choppy surf conditions could allow for a moderate risk on Saturday, but it really depends on the height of the nearshore waves.The northern beaches could then also approach "moderate" Sunday as southerly flow increases. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for NCZ015-030>032. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...AJB AVIATION...AJB MARINE...SW ####018004824#### FXUS61 KCLE 141847 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 247 PM EDT Fri Aug 14 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Shower onset on Saturday has delayed a bit, especially across eastern counties. Chance of thunder remains, but given the timing widespread strong to severe storms are not expected. Heavy rain remains the primary concern. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Showers and thunderstorms become more widespread late Saturday through Sunday. Heavy rain is the primary concern with a few stronger storms possible Sunday afternoon and evening. 2) High pressure should provide some relief from precipitation for the start of next week before rain chances return midweek. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... The nearly stationary boundary that has lingered across the Ohio Valley will finally begin to move on Saturday, lifting north as a warm front. This boundary couple with a midlevel shortwave will result in widespread showers pushing across the area beginning Saturday afternoon into the evening. There is a narrow corridor roughly from Findlay to Marion where some strong to severe storms may occur with strong winds the primary threat, but a tornado or two cannot be ruled out. This corridor is the most likely to see these as daytime instability increases concurrent with the synoptic forcing. As the storms slowly spread east, areas will gradually begin to lose that daytime instability keeping the severe potential to a minimum. By late tomorrow evening, the entire area should see some showers. To highlight the scattered severe potential, SPC has kept the corridor from Marion to Findlay in a Day 2 Slight with a Marginal extending further east to a line extending roughly from Sandusky to Canton. The bigger concern with these widespread showers is the very heavy and efficient rainfall that is expected to be associated with them. Deepening warm cloud layers combined with PWAT values in excess of 2" falling on already saturate surfaces could result in localized flooding. At times, storm motion may also becoming parallel to mean flow, suggesting the potential for isolated training storms to develop which would only enhance the flood potential. To highlight this concern, WPC has put the entire area (except far NEOH and NWPA) in a Day 2 Slight Risk ERO. KEY MESSAGE 2... After this shortwave and associated surface low move a cold front east on Sunday, high pressure is expected to build east over the area and allow for a brief reprieve from precipitation across the area for the start of next week. Chances of precipitation look to increase Wednesday into Thursday as a low pressure system moves into the region from the central US. Models have this midweek system developing into a more robust synoptic trough with more support aloft. Model timing and positioning of this low still diverge quite a bit, but this may be another period to keep an eye on for heavy rainfall and the potential for strong to severe weather. && .AVIATION /18Z Friday THROUGH Wednesday/... Rain has largely ended across the area this afternoon, with a few scattered showers around Wooster and Canton. Showers and MVFR ceilings will diminish after 21Z for most terminals, with a high VFR ceiling and light/variable winds persisting into the evening. This will favor development of IFR fog across the southern portion of the region overnight, along and south of a line from FDY to YNG. Pockets of dense fog are likely in this area, especially around CAK/AKR. Conditions will improve to VFR after 15Z tomorrow, with winds becoming south-southeasterly at 5-10 knots. Outlook...Non-VFR possible with showers and thunderstorms return Saturday night through Sunday evening. High pressure will build behind a cold front Monday afternoon and continue into Wednesday morning. && .MARINE... Weak high pressure builds across the Great Lakes today and tomorrow. Conditions should be relatively quiet through Saturday. Low pressure moving eastward across the Great Lakes region brings a warm front across Lake Erie Saturday night into Sunday morning, followed by a cold front Sunday evening into Sunday night. There is a low possibility for offshore flow reaching or exceeding 20 knots Saturday, though probabilities of winds > 20 knots and waves > 4 ft increase Sunday into Sunday night as winds become west to northwest. Will need to monitor the need for a Small Craft Advisory and Beach Hazard Statement for this period. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...04 AVIATION...27 MARINE...27 ####018007606#### FXUS62 KRAH 141850 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 250 PM EDT Fri Aug 14 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... * In addition to today's Heat Advisory, another Heat Advisory has been issued for our southern half for Sat. Additional heat alerts are likely for Sun and Mon. * Shower/storm coverage should be higher today and into the weekend compared to the last couple of days, but still mostly scattered. && .KEY MESSAGES... As of 250 PM Friday... 1) Dangerous heat and humidity will remain in place across portions of NC tomorrow through early next week. 2) There is a Marginal risk of severe thunderstorms through this evening areawide, and a Marginal to Slight risk of severe thunderstorms Saturday, with the higher risk over western and southern areas of central NC. Damaging winds are the primary threat. && .DISCUSSION... As of 250 PM Friday... KEY MESSAGE 1... Dangerous heat and humidity will remain in place across portions of NC tomorrow through early next week. Early afternoon satellite data reveals convection crossing the mountains into the Mid Atlantic. Varying amounts of mid/high clouds have been present across central NC through much of the day but given mild morning low temps, there has been no problem seeing heat index values climb above 100 (before noon in many spots). The Heat Advisory will remain in place until 8 pm tonight. The combination of loss of daytime heating plus the potential for rain cooled air from showers and storms should bring some degree of relief by this evening. Mid level heights and thicknesses remain relatively similar across the southern half of our forecast area on Saturday. As such, temps and dewpoints should yield similar heat index values along and south of a Stanly to Wayne Co line, and a Heat Advisory will be in effect from 11a-8p tomorrow as well. With a stalled front lingering across the area and little in the way of backdoor cold air to cleanly push it through our area, dangerously hot heat index values can be expected across portions of the area Sunday and Monday and additional Heat Advisories may be needed through early next week. KEY MESSAGE 2... There is a Marginal risk of severe thunderstorms through this evening areawide, and a Marginal to Slight risk of severe thunderstorms Saturday with the higher risk over western and southern areas of central NC. Damaging winds are the primary threat. The latest surface analysis shows the primary synoptic frontal zone from the Midwest to the Mid Atlantic, with a trough trailing from DE S and SW through central NC. A series of old outflows along and S of this front generated from decaying/decayed MCSs are already spawning convection over NC, with storms having started over the E slopes of the S Appalachians and Foothills drifting SE into the W Piedmont, while another broken band of storms is tracking from central WV into E KY, also pushing SE. These boundaries will continue to track SE over VA/NC through this evening, with additional scattered convection over our area feeding on high PW (130-140% of normal) and 3000-4000 J/kg of SBCAPE, yielding a wet microburst threat with the deeper convection, although poor deep layer shear should limit storm organization. Coverage should be higher over the N than the S, given the mid level ridging and lower mid level lapse rates further S, but a stray shower or storm can't be ruled out anywhere given the strong heating, high moisture, and favorable instability. Activity should dwindle gradually during the early overnight hours. Models continue to favor a substantial outflow passage SSW through much of central NC tonight into early Sat, while the synoptic front remains well to our N, aligned vertically with the stronger WNW mid level steering from the Midwest to the Mid Atlantic. This diffuse boundary is expected to set up over central NC Sat roughly from the Triad region through the central Coastal Plain, and N of this front will see higher low-level stability and a pool of sct-bkn morning stratus, which should help hold temps down a bit from today's readings. But along and south of this boundary, ample heating and very warm/moist air should support another round of moderate to high afternoon SBCAPE amidst continued-high PW, thus isold to sctd storms are again expected, with another primary threat from damaging straight-line winds, despite borderline lapse rates aloft and poor deep layer bulk shear. As we'll stay within this steamy air mass into at least early next week with hot temps, high humidity, and above-normal PW, isolated to scattered afternoon/evening showers will remain possible. Most models show the mid level ridge gradually flattening, sinking southward and gradually retrograding to across the S Plains and Gulf Coast through the middle of next week, with another uptick in WNW mid level flow over our area. Thus, scattered diurnal-favored showers and storms will remain possible through mid week, although not every place will see activity every day. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 1225 PM Friday... All central NC terminals will remain VFR through this evening, with primarily sct to thin bkn mid and high clouds based above 10 kft and mostly sct clouds based around 4-6 kft below it, mainly across the W and N. Isold to sct showers and storms are expected late today and this evening (21z-04z) in the N CWA, mainly affecting INT/GSO 18z- 20z then affecting RDU and RWI after 20z. After 04z, as a weak outflow boundary settles south-southwestward into central NC, our NE areas will see a good chance for a period of sct-bkn IFR clouds in the early morning (mainly 09z-14z) including at and near RDU/RWI. Brief MVFR vsbys in fog are also possible in this area around daybreak. Any sub-VFR conditions should improve to VFR by 16z. Surface winds will remain light from the W or NW, shifting late tonight to N and NE esp over our NE areas. Looking beyond 18z Sat, scattered late-day showers and storms are possible each day through Mon, although the predictability of this will remain rather low, reducing forecast confidence in timing and location of any storms. A few hours of patchy early-morning sub-VFR fog/stratus may occur each day, with the highest chances in areas that see rain. && .CLIMATE... Record High Temperatures: August 14: KRDU: 100/1995 KFAY: 100/1918 August 15: KFAY: 100/1935 August 17: KRDU: 99/1997 KFAY: 104/1954 August 18: KFAY: 98/1988 August 20: KFAY: 102/2007 Record High Minimum Temperatures: August 14: KGSO: 75/2016 KRDU: 78/1995 KFAY: 77/2016 August 15: KGSO: 77/1995 KRDU: 77/1995 KFAY: 78/2017 August 16: KGSO: 75/2016 KRDU: 76/2007 KFAY: 78/2005 August 17: KGSO: 75/2010 KRDU: 76/2024 KFAY: 78/2007 August 18: KGSO: 75/2017 KRDU: 77/1995 KFAY: 78/2021 August 19: KRDU: 77/1988 KFAY: 76/1940 August 20: KGSO: 77/1912 KRDU: 75/2007 KFAY: 78/2005 && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ025>028-040>043- 073>078-083>086-088-089. Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Saturday for NCZ042-073>078- 083>086-088-089. && $$ DISCUSSION...Leins/Hartfield AVIATION...Hartfield