####018003955#### FXUS62 KTBW 150725 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 325 AM EDT Mon Jun 15 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 302 AM EDT Mon Jun 15 2026 - Near to slightly above normal temperatures will continue through the next week. - Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will develop each afternoon this week, with the highest rain chances generally over the interior. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 325 AM EDT Mon Jun 15 2026 Currently at the surface, the sub-tropical ridge of high pressure is extending from the western Atlantic across southern Florida, keeping west and southwest flow in place across west central and southwest Florida today and Tuesday. Under this pattern, a few showers will shift onshore from the Gulf during the morning hours, then isolated to scattered showers will develop over the Florida Peninsula during the afternoon and shift east into the interior through the early evening hours. On Tuesday, a frontal boundary is forecast to stall out north of the area, with pooling moisture south of this boundary allowing rain chances to increase slightly over the northern half of the forecast area. As the aforementioned front stalls out through the rest of the week, the surface ridge will shift east into the Atlantic Wednesday, resulting in a more southerly to southwesterly flow pattern that will hold through the rest of the week. A pocket of relatively drier air aloft will lift northeast into the area on Wednesday, limiting rain chances for much of the forecast area. Moisture and rain chances will then increase again on Thursday through and hold through the weekend. Under the southerly/southwesterly flow, the axis of highest rain chances will still be over the interior for the later half of the week, but this pattern will allow for somewhat higher rain chances along the west coast than what is forecast for today through Wednesday. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 325 AM EDT Mon Jun 15 2026 A few showers will be possible shifting onshore during the morning hours, potentially causing brief flight category disruptions as showers move over area terminals. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will develop during the afternoon, although the highest rain chances will generally be east of area terminals. && .MARINE... Issued at 325 AM EDT Mon Jun 15 2026 High pressure remaining south of the waters today and Tuesday will keep west and southwest flow in place. Rain chances over the northern coastal waters will increase slightly on Tuesday and Wednesday as a weak front stalls out to the north, allowing moisture to increase over the northeastern Gulf. Winds become more southerly Wednesday through Friday as the ridge shifts east into the Atlantic. No headlines are expected this week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 325 AM EDT Mon Jun 15 2026 West and southwest flow will continue today and Tuesday, keeping deep moisture over the area with no concerns for low humidity. Isolated to scattered showers and storms will develop each day, with the highest rain chances over the interior. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 91 81 91 80 / 20 10 30 20 FMY 91 79 92 78 / 20 10 20 10 GIF 94 76 94 76 / 20 10 40 10 SRQ 91 80 91 79 / 20 10 20 10 BKV 92 78 92 76 / 20 10 30 20 SPG 91 81 91 81 / 20 10 30 20 && Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Monday: 4 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Tuesday: 4 For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ Fleming ####018004668#### FXUS63 KLOT 150725 AFDLOT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 225 AM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered thunderstorms Tuesday with a level 1 for severe weather, mainly in the afternoon/early evening. - Severe thunderstorms Wednesday into Wednesday evening with a level 3 for severe weather, with all hazards possible, large hail, damaging winds and tornadoes. - Torrential rainfall and localized flash flooding possible Wednesday. - Possible high waves and dangerous swimming conditions at Indiana Lake Michigan beaches Thursday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 225 AM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026 Dry and quiet conditions are expected today with below normal temps topping out in the mid 70s. Westerly winds will gust into the 20 mph range. An upper level trough and associated cold front will move across the area Tuesday bringing showers and scattered thunderstorms. There remains some timing differences with activity possibly into the western cwa Tuesday morning and then strengthening into the afternoon as it moves across the eastern cwa, likely exiting the cwa early Tuesday evening. The Day 2 outlook maintains a level 1 risk for severe weather with moisture/dewpoints being the limiting factor given current model trends. The NAM does have a narrow axis of dewpoints in the lower/mid 60s ahead of the front across northern IN by 00z and if this were to materialize, there may be a bit higher severe threat in the far eastern cwa. Prevailing southwest winds ahead of the cold front may gust into the 30 mph range on Tuesday. Another stronger upper level trough and associated surface low will move across the Great Lakes region Wednesday bringing the threat of severe thunderstorms across much of the region, though there remains quite a bit of uncertainty for the local area. There could be ongoing convection midday Wednesday with perhaps widespread coverage. While there is a chance this could limit how far north the warm front is able to lift later Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening, the deepening low pressure that is likely to be north of the area and the strong wind field may allow the warm front to lift back north through at least the I-80 corridor and much of the guidance generally supports the warm front lifting back through at least part of the local area. Despite these uncertainties, all severe hazards will be possible Wednesday into Wednesday evening, large hail, damaging winds and tornadoes, some possibly strong. Precipitable water values on Wednesday are forecast to be in the 1.5 to 2 inch range across much of the area and the past few operational runs of the GFS show precipitable water values across the southern cwa into the 2.25 inch range. Current forecast qpf amounts for this time period are around 2 inches for most of the area and if these materialize, combined with the wet ground and elevated river/creek levels, torrential rain will lead to localized flash flooding. Too early for a flood watch but that will need to be considered as Wednesday approaches. Prevailing south/southeast winds outside convection Wednesday may gust into the 30-35 mph range and then shift southwest south of the warm front. Northwest winds behind the cold front may also gust into the 30 mph range Wednesday night into Thursday, but will be dependent on the strengthen/deepening of the system as it departs. Wind directions may allow for high waves and dangerous swimming conditions for Indiana Lake Michigan beaches Thursday. Quite a bit of uncertainty for the end of the week into next weekend regarding precip chances. There appears to be a few weak waves in northwest flow that may allow for some afternoon showers and thunderstorms Friday and Saturday. And then maybe a more organized system in the Sunday time frame, which the ECMWF appears to be fairly consistent with. Temperatures look to remain slightly below normal through the period. cms && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1218 AM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026 VFR conditions expected through the 06Z TAF cycle. Light winds tonight will increase from the west-southwest mid morning Monday. Gusts in the upper teens to around 20kt are expected late morning through late afternoon Monday before winds diminish Monday evening. - Izzi && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. IN...None. LM...None. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/chicago ####018003641#### FXUS65 KBYZ 150726 AFDBYZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Billings MT 126 AM MDT Mon Jun 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Warming and mostly dry conditions through Tuesday. Isolated Low showers, mainly east of Rosebud County. - Windy conditions late Tuesday through Wednesday. - Cold front brings a cool down and low to moderate chance of showers/thunderstorms Wednesday, mainly for east central and southeast Montana. && .DISCUSSION... Next 7 days (Through Sunday)... Conditions will continue to trend warmer and drier into Tuesday, with highs today in the 70s to low 80s, increasing to 80s to near 90 Tuesday. Occasional weak waves in the flow will bring low chances (10-30%) for showers and weak thunderstorms into Tuesday. Winds will be breezy over the east today, with gusts of 20 to 40 mph through the afternoon. Ahead of a stronger shortwave dropping through the region late Tuesday into Wednesday, winds will increase over the foothills Tuesday afternoon with a moderate chance for a gust greater than 50 mph. Into Wednesday, breezy northwest winds of 30 to 50 mph will spread across the region, highest over the east, as the wave and an associated cold front move through. Temperatures will be cooler Wednesday behind the front, with highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s. With the stronger wave late Tuesday into Wednesday, better potential for showers and thunderstorms (20-60% chance) arrives, mainly for northern and eastern areas. Through the end of the work week, occasional pieces of energy will continue to move through the upper level northwest flow, allowing isolated afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms to continue (20% or less chance). Highs will generally stay in the 70s to low 80s for the later half of the week. Ensembles continue to indicate upper troughing will move onto the West Coast Friday into Saturday, with southwest flow developing over the northern Rockies. This would bring a better potential for daily thunderstorms over the weekend, with shortwaves lifting into the region and plains moisture advecting into the area. Archer .AVIATION... VFR conditions will prevail today. Look for isolated showers across SE Montana through the day. There is a slight chance of brief MVFR conditions with this activity. Northwest winds will be gusty by late morning over SE Montana, with gusts in the 20 to 35kt range through the afternoon hours affecting KBHK/KEKA. BT && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS... Tdy Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun ------------------------------------------------------- BIL 079 055/088 060/075 050/077 052/081 057/078 055/076 2/W 00/N 01/N 00/U 00/B 02/T 43/T LVM 078 048/083 053/074 043/077 045/081 049/074 047/074 0/U 00/N 00/N 10/U 00/B 15/T 55/T HDN 078 050/088 056/074 047/075 048/082 054/080 053/076 2/W 10/N 12/W 00/U 00/B 03/T 44/T MLS 076 052/086 056/071 048/073 048/078 053/079 053/073 2/W 00/B 33/W 11/U 00/B 01/B 43/T 4BQ 074 050/085 057/070 048/072 048/079 054/079 053/072 2/W 01/B 23/W 01/U 00/B 13/T 55/T BHK 073 045/081 050/067 043/069 043/075 047/076 048/071 3/T 01/E 55/T 22/T 10/U 01/B 34/T SHR 073 046/083 053/070 044/072 044/081 049/077 048/072 1/N 00/B 11/N 01/U 00/B 16/T 78/T && .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. WY...None. && $$ weather.gov/billings ####018002736#### FXUS61 KPBZ 150727 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 327 AM EDT Mon Jun 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Monitoring the potential for hazardous weather on Thursday. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Quiet weather expected Monday through late Tuesday; monitoring potential hazardous weather on Thursday && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Quiet and cooler conditions is likely today into Tuesday in the wake of a cold front. A passing shortwave from the west may bring a wave of light rain to the region early Wednesday morning. We continue to monitor the development of a large-scale disturbance across the Great Lakes late Wednesday into Thursday. Concerns remain for severe weather, including damage wind gusts and tornadoes, as well as the potential for heavy rainfall that could lead to localized flooding. There is still some uncertainty regarding the exact center of the low and the warm front. If the low tracks further north, the axis of heavy rainfall may become focused from Michigan into New York rather than across our region. Regarding the severe weather threat, wind shear appears highly favorable, with 40-50kts of vertical wind shear just above the surface. However, instability may be somewhat limited by extensive clouds and multiple waves of precipitation. Despite these uncertainties, both machine-learning guidance and the Storm Prediction Center continue to highlight an elevated severe weather threat, with probabilities ranging from 40-60% for regional impacts. A passing cold front Friday will likely limit the potential for hazardous weather over the weekend. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... In the wake of a passing cold front, low-level stratus has developed as lingering boundary layer moisture from convection over the past 12 hours combines with northwest cold air advection. Terminal conditions have been inconsistent through the early morning hours, fluctuating between VFR and IFR. However, widespread VFR conditions are expected to become established after 16Z as daytime heating and boundary layer mixing increases. Quiet and dry weather is anticipated from late Monday through early Tuesday with generally light and variable winds. VFR conditions are expected to persist into Tuesday afternoon, wind winds gradually becoming southerly. Outlook... A passing disturbance may create minor impacts to the region early Wednesday with a passing shortwave. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. OH...None. WV...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Hefferan AVIATION...Hefferan ####018006217#### FXUS63 KGID 150728 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 228 AM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Largely drive Mon-Fri work week. - Seasonal temperatures either side of normal (tad cooler, tad warmer, tad cooler) with a comfortable airmass thanks to lower dewpoints (though likely a bit higher late Tuesday/early Wednesday) - Honestly, the next shot for decent showers/storms comes next weekend, possibly late Friday night, but more likely Satudray night, and it may include the for strong to severe storms. && .UPDATE... Issued at 225 AM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026 The early morning weather map depicted surface high pressure near Scottsbluff Nebraska and ridging its way southeast into northern Kansas. Skies were clear or mostly clear with some mid clouds still streaming in from northeast Colorado and across southwest Nebraska. A weak upper short wave was moving southeast into western Iowa and spreading weak subsidence into south central Nebraska. Temperatures are cool again this morning, ranging from 50 to 60 degrees. As the key messages mention, the Monday-Friday work is "mostly" dry. The exception is tonight when another upper shortwave, with a bit more "umph" and a weak front slides southeast across the region. A weak south/southwest low level jet (LLJ) forms ahead of the surface front with some low end MuCape and CAMS models suggesting at least non-zero chance for isolated showers or even a rumble of thunder after 10 PM. The forecast reflects this with a 15-25% type rain chance. This seems most likely to occur southeast of Hastings. Rain amounts will be minimal, such as trace to a few hundredths, and very sparse overall. Tuesday and Wednesday will be dry, and Tuesday will be a particularly nice day. The late Monday night front will shift winds to the north Tuesday morning, but winds will quickly return to the south by evening...ahead of the next front set to push through the area Wednesday morning. Though the front is stronger and it will pull more moisture back into the region late Tuesday night, warming in the mid-levels will act as a cap, and force development of thunderstorms well east of south central Nebraska and north central Kansas. Look for a much warmer night Tuesday night (lows in the 60s) and a quick warmup Wednesday as fairly strong west/northwest winds mix the lower atmosphere. However, we have lowered temperatures a touch (still above 90 many areas) with the idea that there is decent cold advection as early as late morning and lasting through the afternoon/evening. High temperatures Wednesday may well go lower by a few degrees with subsequent forecasts. Winds are probably underdone for Wednesday afternoon giving the strong downward momentum transfer and even "old-timer" numerical guidance suggesting 30-35 mph wind gusts are possible, if not likely. After the midweek cold front passes, temperatures dip back to slightly below normal Thursday with sunshine, comfortable dewpoints and a north breeze. Friday will be dry but becomes a transition day as southernly winds return, low-level moisture slowly increases and and temperatures sneak up into the middle and upper 80s. On Friday night, there are early signs LLJ will form and start to push more unstable air north overnight which may result in some overnight thunderstorms. This scenario seems more likely Saturday night as a strong southerly flow sets up across Central Plains thanks to surface low pressure and a shortwave moving east across the Dakotas. Precipitation chances look pretty good at this point, centered mostly on Saturday night night, keeping in mind this has been a trend in the models for at last a few days. If this timing holds, another front would push across the area on Fathers Day continuing the rain chance. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 213 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026 There will be a few opportunities for sprinkles or light rain showers this week, but widespread or "meaningful" rain is not expected. The 12Z global ensembles show a 60-90% chance for less than 0.10" of total rainfall through Friday. The first opportunity for sprinkles will be tonight into Monday morning, followed by another opportunity for spotty showers and weak t-storms Monday night. Temperatures will trend warmer through midweek (90s to low 100s on Wed). That said, humidity remains quite low through Wednesday, so heat index values should remain below 100 degrees for the entire area. A shortwave will move through the region on Wednesday, but the bulk of the rain/t-storms should remain to our east. This shortwave will bump temperatures down a bit for Thursday, but near to above- normal temperatures return for the weekend. Ensembles continue to advertise reasonably high chances for rain/t-storms returning next weekend (June 20-21st) as a shortwave moves through the central/northern Plains. Of course, details remain pretty uncertain at this time range, this could feature at least some severe weather. The 00Z CSU-MLP severe probs have a 5% contour across much of the region on Saturday. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1235 AM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026 For KGRI/KEAR Airports... VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period at both airports. A shortwave slipping by now may drag a FEW-SCT mid-clouds across the area early in the forecast but skies will be clear by sunrise. Winds will remain light and more variable through mid-morning as surface high pressure slides across the area. Winds steady out from a westerly direction and may be occasionally gusty to 18KTS through the afternoon hours before dropping off again as evening approaches. High clouds will thicken from the northwest late in the forecast period. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ UPDATE...NOAA/NWS/Moritz DISCUSSION...Mangels AVIATION...NOAA/NWS/Moritz