####018004082#### FXUS64 KOHX 090356 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 956 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 935 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025 - Look for warmer temperatures and breezy conditions on Tuesday and Wednesday. - Colder air will arrive by the weekend, although expected temperatures won't be nearly as frigid as previously thought. - Rain chances through the weekend will be very low. There are somewhat better rain chances next weekend, but 7-day QPF values are less than 1/4" across all of Middle Tennessee && .UPDATE... Issued at 929 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025 Current forecast is on track. Low clouds remain locked in over Middle Tennessee, as the boundary layer is nearly saturated up to ~900 mb. By tomorrow morning, we can expect to bottom out in the 20s areawide. However, the latest NBM suggests that maybe, just maybe, we can look forward to several hours of at least partial sunshine tomorrow, especially during the afternoon, as an axis of high pressure slides to our east and allows for some much-welcome return flow and somewhat warmer temperatures. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Wednesday Night) Issued at 935 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025 High pressure over the Great Lakes is the dominant feature affecting our weather this evening. A surface ridge situated to our west will shift eastward by tomorrow morning, and all indications are that we can expect a break in what has seemed like a perpetual overcast, particularly during the afternoon. Temperatures tomorrow and Wednesday will be several degrees warmer than what we have been experiencing as we pick up some much-needed return flow. A cold front is expected to sweep across Middle Tennessee on Wednesday, although rain chances are very low owing to a paucity of antecedent moisture. Still, temperatures will drop back down starting Wednesday night. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through next Tuesday) Issued at 935 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025 A second cold front is poised to push across the region on Friday and Friday evening, and this one is going to be painful, as temperatures are likely to bottom out several degrees below seasonal norms this weekend (although not as frigid as what the NBM was suggesting 24 hours ago). Still, look for light rain to develop late Saturday, Saturday night and into Sunday. Obviously, we will have to monitor for possible wintry weather since temperatures will drop below freezing Sunday morning, with daytime highs on Sunday possibly not even making it out of the 30s. Slightly better rain chances look to impact Middle Tennessee early next week, along with warmer temperatures, although 7-day QPF values are rather anemic. While the 6-10 day outlook continues to favor below normal temperatures, the 8-14 day outlook suggests a warmer pattern for cold-weary Middle Tennessee. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 507 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025 MVFR cigs continue across the area, but are slowly eroding away from the northwest. CKV has returned to VFR with other terminals expected to return to VFR early Tuesday morning. Otherwise, light northerly winds will become southerly to southwesterly Tuesday morning, strengthening to around 10 knots. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 27 51 40 56 / 0 0 10 0 Clarksville 26 50 40 54 / 0 0 10 0 Crossville 22 45 34 49 / 0 0 0 10 Columbia 26 49 38 56 / 0 0 0 0 Cookeville 24 46 36 51 / 0 0 10 10 Jamestown 23 46 35 49 / 0 0 10 10 Lawrenceburg 25 49 37 56 / 0 0 0 0 Murfreesboro 25 49 38 56 / 0 0 0 0 Waverly 26 48 38 54 / 0 0 0 0 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE.......Rose SHORT TERM...Rose LONG TERM....Rose AVIATION.....Clements ####018009982#### FXUS63 KFGF 090357 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 957 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - A brief period of moderate to heavy snow will bring a quick 1 to 3 inches across northeastern North Dakota and northwestern Minnesota this afternoon and evening. - Very difficult travel conditions are expected Tuesday from accumulating snow and ice, blowing snow, and very strong winds. Some uncertainty in the track of the system exists, which will determine where snow transitions to freezing rain. In the snow area, expect 3-5 inches with some some areas receiving 6 or more inches of snow. - Strong winds will come in late Tuesday into Tuesday night behind the precipitation, with gusts up to 60 mph in southeastern North Dakota. Blowing snow across portions of northeastern North Dakota and far northwestern Minnesota will bring very difficult travel conditions with low visibility in addition to ice and snow. - Much colder temperatures will arrive late week, with a 70 percent chance for winds chills to drop to -30 or colder. && .UPDATE... Issued at 957 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025 Snow has ended for the most part this evening with a few lingering spots in the eastern zones of our area. Expect a generally quiet night before the winter storm pushes in tomorrow morning, generally after 6 AM. UPDATE Issued at 650 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025 Conditions will continue to improve as snowfall spreads east of the region. Behind this, low clouds will keep temperatures above zero for the most part, although pockets of clearing may allow drops to just below zero in northwest Minnesota. No other weather impacts are expected until the next system pushes in tomorrow morning. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 309 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025 ...Synopsis... Shortwave trough currently digging from southwestern Manitoba into ND will continue diving into our northern counties tonight. This will bring a quick shot of snow and winds briefly shifting to the northwest before they return back to the south tomorrow morning ahead of the next system. The shortwave tomorrow is expected to be more vigorous, with a deeper surface low and strong cold air advection behind it. The strong shortwave will continue to be pretty fast moving, moving off into southern MN/northern IA tonight and then the next reinforcing shortwave coming down on Wednesday. North to northwest flow with periodic clipper systems continues through the rest of the period, with lower heights and colder air coming in on Friday. Some variation on where exactly the baroclinic zone ends up over the weekend, but decent agreement between ensemble members on northwesterly flow and another clipper moving in Monday. ...Brief moderate to heavy snow through this evening... First shortwave today has a fair amount of 850mb frontogenesis with it as seen on SPC mesoanalysis. Snow currently moving through northeastern ND has been showing fairly impressive rates, with 1 to 2 inches per hour in some locations. Fortunately the system is fast moving, so residence time will be short and most likely snow amounts are a quick 1 to 3 inches. Not out of the question that some spots could see more than 3 inches, but probability of that is around 10 to 20 percent. Expect larger impacts tomorrow. ...Accumulating snow and ice tomorrow... The stronger shortwave will dig into the northern Red River Valley tomorrow. There are still minor differences in the track of the surface low, with a difference of less than 50 miles making a big difference in temperature profiles. It is still unknown where exactly the rain/freezing rain/snow line will be, along with the band of heaviest snow. However, probabilities of at least a glaze of freezing rain are 60 to 90 percent along our western and southern counties. Best chances for at least 4 inches of snow are mostly across the eastern Devils Lake Basin into the Northern Red River Valley and northwestern Minnesota, with a 40 percent chance for 6 inches or more in some spots. While exact amounts are still uncertain, travel impacts are highly likely with at least some ice and snow accumulation across the area. Portions of the Devils Lake basin and northern Red River Valley look to have the best convergence of a bit of freezing rain, up to 6 inches of snow, and blowing snow later in the day to go ahead and put out a winter storm warning through Tuesday and Tuesday night. Further east into MN, there will be a strong 2 to 4 inches of snow but less wind and lower chances for ice, so kept it advisory. Western Devils Lake basin will see a bit less snow, and southeastern ND into far northwestern MN mostly freezing rain and then rain. The icing impacts in southeastern ND will be affecting by rising temperatures, with some melting of ice and even crusting of snowpack possible with temps rising into the mid to upper 30s. However, for simplicity kept advisory through 00Z and later shifts can cancel early if needed. ...High winds Tuesday night... Very strong cold air advection and pressure rises on the backside of the departing low will bring good confidence in high winds Tuesday night behind the precipitation. BUFKIT soundings for KFAR have a strong mixed layer up to 780mb and momentum transfer as high as 55 kts Tuesday evening. Probabilities for 60 mph gusts or higher are 50 to 60 percent across southeastern ND. Not sure how long the high gusts will last into the overnight beyond the initial push of cold air advection, but elected to go high wind warning all the way from 00Z to 12Z Wednesday in the interests of headline simplicity. ...Cold temperatures Friday into the weekend... Upper low/trough digging into the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes Friday will help bring a reinforcing surge of cold air into the Northern Plains. This looks to be coldest of the season so far, with lows in the teens and 20s below zero over the weekend and highs on Saturday not even getting to the positive numbers. Mean apparent T values around around -40 Saturday and Sunday mornings. Likely will need some cold headlines of some sort, but too early to exactly determine advisory or warning. .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1152 AM CST Mon Dec 8 2025 A bit of light snow or flurries reducing vis down to 2 miles at a few spots. Ceilings are mostly MVFR but a few have broken up to VFR or gone down to IFR. Some vis down to 1 mile or even lower at times is not out of the question, with IFR conditions for a while this afternoon and evening. After a bit of a break back to MVFR/VFR overnight as this first round of snow, visibility and ceilings will go down again towards the end of the period as the next round of precipitation arrives. That system will have the potential for FZRA as well as snow particularly at KDVL and KFAR, so have a mention going at those sites. Winds will be shifting around from the southeast to the west, then back to the southeast before going north with the cold front coming down. Speeds look like they will stay mostly in the 10 to 15 with gusts up to 20 kts during the TAF period, but will be ramping up quickly afterwards when they shift northwest for Tuesday afternoon. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 531 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025 Snow will continue to push eastward through the evening towards BJI, clearing out for the most part in eastern North Dakota and far northwest Minnesota. Associated with the approaching band of snow will be periodic visibility reductions to 1/2SM at times (potentially even 1/4SM), with prevailing 1-2SM. MVFR to IFR ceilings will continue to linger on the backside of this snow. There are signals for a brief push to VFR in the Red River Valley. Confidence is low in the extent of VFR ceilings and the cutoff could be sharp so anticipate some amendments as necessary depending on how things shake out. Looking ahead to tomorrow, conditions will deteriorate from northwest to southeast through the morning and afternoon hours. Heavy snow in northwest Minnesota and northeast North Dakota will contribute to visibility reductions to 1/4SM at times, particularly with the blowing snow accompanying it. Additionally, freezing rain is likely to develop across eastern North Dakota into west-central Minnesota, particularly impacting FAR for a long duration. Eventually, all sites will shift to primarily snow, and with the winds approaching 40-50 knots (again particularly at FAR), blowing snow should cause visibility reductions to continue to linger once falling snow ends. MVFR to IFR ceilings will also accompany this system. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...Winter Storm Warning from 6 AM Tuesday to 6 AM CST Wednesday for NDZ007-008-015-016-026-027-029-030-054. Winter Weather Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM CST Tuesday for NDZ024-028-038-039-049-052-053. High Wind Warning from 6 PM Tuesday to 6 AM CST Wednesday for NDZ024-028-038-039-049-052-053. Winter Weather Advisory from 6 AM Tuesday to 6 AM CST Wednesday for NDZ006-014. MN...Winter Storm Warning from 6 AM Tuesday to 6 AM CST Wednesday for MNZ001-002-004-007-008-013>015. Winter Weather Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM CST Tuesday for MNZ003-029. High Wind Warning from 6 PM Tuesday to 6 AM CST Wednesday for MNZ003-029. Winter Weather Advisory from noon Tuesday to 6 AM CST Wednesday for MNZ005-006-009-016-017-022>024-027-028- 030>032-040. && $$ UPDATE...Perroux DISCUSSION...JR AVIATION...Perroux