####018005754#### FXUS64 KOHX 050043 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 643 PM CST Thu Dec 4 2025 ...New KEY MESSAGES... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 642 PM CST Thu Dec 4 2025 - A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for portions of the Cumberland Plateau tonight for ice accumulation up to 0.10" and snow accumulations up to an inch. - Mixed wintry precipitation is likely across all of Middle TN through roughly 2AM. Some slick spots may develop tonight. Be cautious when travelling anywhere in the mid state. - Temperatures warm above freezing Friday afternoon. && .MESOSCALE UPDATE FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL... Issued at 546 PM CST Thu Dec 4 2025 The 00Z sounding at OHX is underway, but we can give some preliminary results (up to 400 mb, anyway). This is primarily a snow sounding. The dendritic layer (-12C to -18C) isn't completely saturated, but there is enough moisture present for ice creation. As we progress downward, there is a warm nose centered at ~830 mb at which the temperature increases to +2C, which is probably enough for some melting, but not a great deal. Below that, the profile cools to -2C at ~955 mb, so whatever melting might be occurring will likely re-freeze into ice pellets before reaching the surface, but the bulk of the precipitation is still going to fall as snow. The surface temperature is +0.5C and has been above freezing all day, so we don't expect any accumulation here yet, although we are starting to receive reports from some of our Highland Rim locations of light ice accumulations. Fortunately, the back edge of the precipitation is already crossing the Tennessee River into Middle Tennessee, so we expect the precipitation to end from west to east during the next few hours. && .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Friday) Issued at 1200 PM CST Thu Dec 4 2025 It's a cold, cloudy day across middle Tennessee. Moisture from an inverted trough along the Gulf Coast will provide our rain this afternoon and evening, with timing looking to start around 3PM. As this rain continues to linger across the mid-state, cold air will begin to mix with the rain, leading to wintry mix in areas along and north of I-40. Trend with this system continue to go up, which lends to more confidence in wintry and mixed precipitation occurring. Diving into specifics, it looks like all modes of wintry precipitation will be possible overnight. Freezing rain probabilities continue to increase on the cumberland plateau, where the winter weather advisory has been in place. The second area freezing rain probabilities continue to rise is in the intersection of Williamson, Dickson, and Hickman counties. Probabilities for freezing rain are less here than on the plateau, but still a notable increase for the surrounding areas. As of now, probabilities for >0.01" of freezing rain are up to 70-80% on the Cumberland Plateau, 30-50% in that eastern hot spot I mentioned earlier, and 10-30% on the I-40 corridor in between. If we bump that up to a tenth of an inch, 30-50% probability of seeing over 0.1" on the Plateau, 10-20% chance in the west, and <20% in between. Thankfully, there are no probabilities for exceeding a quarter of an inch of ice in Middle Tennessee. As for snow, the greatest chance of seeing accumulating snow over half an inch is on the Cumberland plateau in the winter weather advisory. That area could see up to one inch of snow by tomorrow morning. Friday morning, precipitation ends and temperatures will warm into the 40s, which will help with travel conditions across the mid- state. Once we get into Friday, the day should be relatively quiet in the aftermath of this system. && .LONG TERM... (Friday Night through next Thursday) Issued at 1200 PM CST Thu Dec 4 2025 Saturday will be dry but cloudy as the next system approaches on Sunday. Widespread low rain chances overspread the mid-state, with more cold air following behind it. Could see some wrap around snowflakes on Monday, but those chances are low and the accumulations would be nothing. Warmth will return into next week, with highs in the 50s expected mid-week. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1123 AM CST Thu Dec 4 2025 Light rain will push in from the west after 22z with rain, snow, and freezing rain mixing in along and north of I-40 and over the Plateau. Precipitation will exit from west to east 7z to 11z. Light snow accumulation of less than 0.50" will be possible along and north of I-40 with light ice accumulation of up to 0.05" mainly over the Plateau. MVFR cigs build in from west to east later this afternoon into the evening with them continuing to lower to IFR/LIFR after 02z. Cigs will slowly come rise during the morning after 16z. Light northerly winds under 8 knots. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 32 44 31 51 / 80 0 0 0 Clarksville 26 43 28 49 / 30 0 0 0 Crossville 32 42 31 46 / 90 0 0 10 Columbia 32 44 30 51 / 90 0 0 10 Cookeville 32 41 31 47 / 90 0 0 10 Jamestown 30 41 29 46 / 90 10 0 0 Lawrenceburg 32 44 30 50 / 90 0 0 10 Murfreesboro 32 44 30 50 / 90 0 0 10 Waverly 27 43 28 48 / 50 0 0 0 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST Friday for TNZ010-011- 031>034-065-066. && $$ SHORT TERM...Holley LONG TERM....Holley AVIATION.....Rose ####018007398#### FXAK69 PAFG 050043 AFDAFG Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 343 PM AKST Thu Dec 4 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Temperatures continue to drop across the region. Generally clear and calm conditions expected through Friday with northeasterly winds increasing late Friday into Saturday. Areas of blowing snow and low wind chills are likely as winds increase. Winds decrease Sunday into Monday, but cold temperatures remain well into next week. && .KEY WEATHER MESSAGES... Central and Eastern Interior... - Mostly clear and cold weather, temperatures dropping as low as to 30s and 40s below zero by this weekend. - Clouds will be around in the Eastern Interior, limiting how cold temperatures get. Snow will also try to move in on Saturday (1 inch or less) from Delta east to the AlCan Border. - N/NE wind increases significantly on Saturday from the Yukon Flats southwest. Gusts above 1000ft may be upwards of 30 to 50 mph whereas valleys can see gusts up to 30 mph (IF the inversion breaks). This continues into Sunday AM, then weakens. - Ambient temperatures through Sunday, with no clouds or wind, will drop into the 20s and 30s below zero. A few colder spots, especially north and east of Fairbanks may hit 40 below. - Wind chill values may be as low as 60 below zero from Tanana to the Yukon Flats this weekend. Significant blowing snow is possible in the higher terrain above 1000ft. - This could be a significant wind event and end up being impactful as it could lead to tree damage and power outages. - Blizzard conditions are possible Friday and Saturday along the Parks Highway from Carlo Creek to Cantwell and from Trims Camp to Fielding Lake along the Richardson Highway. - The cold trend continues into next week. Winds weaken rapidly late Sunday into Monday and clouds clear again. Strong temperature inversions will form in Interior Valleys. The coldest valleys will likely drop into the 40s and 50s below zero. West Coast and Western Interior... - A cold trend continues through the weekend. Expect minimum temperatures in the single digits above and below 0 along the coast and in the teens to 30s below zero in the Interior Valleys. - North-northeast winds increase this weekend. Wind gusts may be up to 35 to 45 mph along the coast and in the higher terrain. - With temperatures below 0 and wind this strong, it could lead to wind chills as low as -50F in some spots. - Winter Storm Watches remain in effect for strong winds, blowing snow, and very cold wind chills from Koyuk to Huslia and south to the Yukon Delta from Friday night through Monday night. North Slope and Brooks Range.. - A front moves west to east across the North Slope Thursday through Friday. Light snow moves across the North Slope reaching Deadhorse and the northern portions of the Eastern Brooks Range Friday morning and diminishes Friday evening. Accumulations up to 1 inch possible. - Expect temps in the negative teens along the coast with 20s below zero inland through tomorrow, then widespread temps in the 30s below zero with some 40F below readings possible in the coldest locations this weekend. - Northerly winds increase Friday up to 10 to 15 mph along the coast and up to 25 to 35 mph through Brooks Range passes. Wind chills fall to as cold as -60F through the Brooks Range passes. && .FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION... For Thursday through Sunday. At the start of the forecast period Thursday, the overall pattern is dominated by 3 main features; a 555 decameter upper level high in the northern Bering Sea, a 536 decameter upper level low over the Alaska Peninsula, and a 500 decameter upper level low in the high Arctic. The Bering Sea high moves north into Eastern Siberia and the Arctic low moves south towards the Eastern Interior through Friday. The Arctic low brings with it very cold temperatures with 850mb temperatures near -30C. A very high amplitude pattern develops between the high and low Friday through Saturday, which peaks as the Arctic low gets pulled southwest towards Kodiak Island and combines with the Alaskan Peninsula low reaching 495 decameters by Saturday night. This reinvigorates the weakening trough and further strengthens the gradient between the high and the low which creates strong jet of wind aloft across the Interior Saturday and Sunday. Winds will increase through Friday at higher elevations and then increase even further Saturday morning. The corridor where the strongest winds are expected is from the Eastern Brooks Range and Yukon Flats south and west towards the Yukon Delta. This orientation places the strongest winds over the same locations that saw recent snowfall earlier this week. Fresh snow greatly increases the threat of blowing snow and some ground blizzards are expected, especially along higher terrain in that same corridor. Cold, dense, Arctic air sweeps across the Interior bringing our 850mb temperatures down into the -25C to -30C range by Saturday. Clearer and calmer conditions across the Interior in the wake of the snow earlier this week is allowing strong inversions to develop in Interior valleys. These inversions are bringing low temperatures well below 0, reaching into the -20s to -30s Thursday and Friday. Saturday winds pick up enough to mix many of the Inversions out of the valleys which will raise the temperatures into the negative single digits and teens, but very cold wind chills into the -30s to -50s become possible. Strong inversions as expected are difficult to mix, but winds should be strong enough to fully mix out the inversion for most valley locations north and west of Fairbanks. The Middle and Upper Tanana Valleys will be more sheltered from the strongest winds, but could still see some strong gusts break through Saturday and Sunday. && .EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7... For Sunday night through next Thursday. At the start of the extended forecast period, Sunday night, a high amplitude pattern continues to weaken as the high and low sustaining it both weaken. Winds across the Interior diminish slowly Sunday and fade more quickly Monday becoming mostly calm again by Tuesday. Cold temperatures aloft continue through the Eastern Interior through Tuesday with clear and calm conditions allowing very cold valley temperatures to develop as strong temperature inversions build late Monday. A building ridge in the Bering Sea Wednesday and Thursday will begin to chip away at colder temperatures, however additional Arctic air moves south into the Eastern Interior to keep the cold air around through the end of the extended forecast period. Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AK...Blizzard Warning for AKZ848-850. Winter Storm Watch for AKZ824>826-828>830-851-852. Blizzard Warning for AKZ832-834. Cold Weather Advisory for AKZ833-838>847. PK...Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ850. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ854. && $$ ####018007737#### FXUS63 KMPX 050044 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 644 PM CST Thu Dec 4 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Accumulating snow and slick travel conditions likely along and north of I-94 Friday. Snow amounts of 1-3" are expected. - Another storm system will produce accumulating snow and travel impacts across southern MN on Saturday. - Sub-zero morning lows return for the end of the weekend, followed by yet another storm system with the potential for mixed precipitation early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 240 PM CST Thu Dec 4 2025 Our first widespread sub-zero morning of the cold season saw temperatures dip as low as -15 or so across portions of central MN. Fortunately, the duration of the coldest air is rather short-lived thanks to an increase in southerly winds this afternoon. The center of the Arctic high that supported the early December cold blast has drifted southeast over the southern Great Lakes. Mid-level warm advection is ongoing within a tightening pressure gradient to the west of the surface high and south of a clipper currently digging into northeastern MN. Surface temperatures are inching closer to the double digits above zero with each passing hour and look to run in a non-dirunal pattern through the rest of the night. In other words, evening temperatures in the low teens will be cooler than the temperatures around daybreak Friday, which are forecast to be in the low 20s. Our attention turns to an active clipper train that is ongoing within the northwesterly flow aloft. Much of the precipitation associated with the aforementioned clipper will remain north of our forecast area tonight, though portions of western WI may see some flakes from this wave. Confidence has increased that a trailing clipper, currently crossing the International border over MT, will dig southeast across the Dakotas tonight and bring accumulating snow to the region tomorrow. There is still some uncertainty with the track of the clipper, as evidenced by the 12z guidance suite. Most of the HREF members and the operational RAP advertise the main swath of snow tracking along and north of I-94 through central MN. On the other hand, there are some guidance members (AIFS/operational Euro) which are a bit farther south with the main swath and place the main band of snow from say Swift county to the ESE through the heart of the Twin Cities. Despite this uncertainty in the exact track, the upward trend in QPF and deep saturation on forecast soundings has resulted in an uptick in the snow forecast (1-3") and PoPs (Now 70-80 percent across central MN) through the day tomorrow. Our snow forecast is a product of up to ~0.1-0.15" liquid in the main snow band and event SLR's ~15:1, which supports the 1-3" range. While somewhat muted, there looks to be at least some frontogenic component to the forcing in the 850mb level, so the potential for a localized band of 2-4" does exist (and right now looks to be most likely along the WFO MPX/DLH border. Snow is forecast to begins across west central MN shortly before daybreak and continue to spread east through the morning. Average snowfall rates between 0.25"-0.5"/hr (per the HREF) will support the potential for travel conditions to become slick through the morning. Snow will end from west to east tomorrow afternoon, but it is likely that locations under the heaviest band will still have some slick spots for the evening commute. Finally, forecast soundings across south/southwestern MN illustrate the loss of cloud ice in association with mid- level dry air. With synoptic lift present, we could see a localized freezing drizzle scenario develop. We have opted to leave any mention out of the grids this afternoon, however we'll treat this part of the forecast as a bit of wild card tomorrow. No headline is planned at this time, though we'll leave the potential for a short advisory on the table depending on what the evening/night shift observes in the 18z/00z model suites. The forecast remains active heading into this weekend as a Pacific influenced shortwave digs southeast along a baroclinic zone from MT towards IA. Guidance has come into better agreement with the anticipated track of the wave which supports a swath of accumulating snow from eastern SD/southwestern MN/northern IA. Since this system has more of a Pacific influence to it, it's no surprise to see higher moisture content resulting in a greater potential for accumulating snow. An initial call would support 3-5" of snow along I- 90, with amounts falling off to about a half inch to an inch as far north as the Twin Cities. Folks traveling south this weekend should keep an eye on the latest information as travel is likely to be impacted from falling/accumulating snow. The low is forecast to continue to the southeast towards the Ohio Valley. As this occurs, northwesterly flow will usher in another anomalous air mass from southern Canada which will drop surface temperatures below zero Sunday and Monday morning. It's likely that Sunday's afternoon highs will struggle to warm above the single digits! Our very active upper level pattern will send another storm system into the northern CONUS in the Tuesday/Wednesday timeframe. Mid- level warm advection of a thermal ridge will warm temperatures to near/above freezing at 925/850mb heading into Tuesday. Should these trends continue, the Tuesday/Wednesday system will likely have some p-type issues given the marginal nature of the thermal profiles. Plenty of time to better define the setup, but one things is for sure: Our forecast remains active and wintry through at least mid- December! && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 634 PM CST Thu Dec 4 2025 Light is expected to spread eastwards across the area overnight across western Minnesota & through tomorrow morning across eastern Minnesota & western Wisconsin. Visibility should drop to IFR as the snow begins, with several hours of light snow accumulating to 1-2" across central Minnesota/northwest Wisconsin & a dusting to 1" across southern Minnesota/western WI. The snow will end by early afternoon across western & southern Minnesota, but linger into late afternoon/early evening across western Wisconsin. Ceilings are currently MVFR across the area, but a few hours of scattering out to VFR looks possible overnight into early tomorrow morning before the snow begins. Ceilings are expected to fall to IFR once the snow begins & should remain there through the period. South winds gust to 20-25 kts tonight but speeds drop below 10 kts by midnight. Winds gradually turn to SSW/SW as the snow begins, & eventually to W/NW as the snow ends tomorrow afternoon. KMSP...Dry air near the surface is expected to limit the snow start time until tomorrow morning, with 8-10 AM appearing most likely. There is a low chance for light snow to begin as early as 5-6 AM, but the bulk of the impactful snow is expected between mid-morning & mid-afternoon. Light snow should wrap up by mid to late afternoon (3-4 PM), before the evening rush. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SAT...MVFR/-SN, chc IFR. Wind N 5-10kts. SUN...MVFR/-SN early, bcmg VFR. Wind N 5-10kts. MON...VFR, chc MVFR w/-SN. Wind S 10-15kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Dunleavy AVIATION...ETA