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FXUS63 KJKL 130015 AAA

AFDJKL



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

National Weather Service Jackson KY

815 PM EDT Sun May 12 2024



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Precipitation free weather reigns through Monday morning, before

  an approaching system from the Plains brings more unsettled

  conditions.



- Near to a little above normal temperatures this work week.



&&



.UPDATE...

Issued at 815 PM EDT SUN MAY 12 2024



Mainly high thin clouds are streaming in from the southwest

currently, with mostly clear skies still holding over eastern

Kentucky. These clouds will thicken up with time after midnight, 

but not before valleys make a quick drop off through the 50s, with

mid to upper 40s still looking on target for the overnight lows 

within our normally cooler spots. The current forecast has all of 

this well in hand. Merely made a few adjustments based on the 

trends in observations. Updates will be out shortly. 



&&



.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)

Issued at 316 PM EDT SUN MAY 12 2024



High pressure at the surface and aloft making for a beautiful Sunday 

across eastern KY. The surface high will shift east of the region 

tonight, allowing for a southerly wind flow to start. This shift 

should allow for a quick warm up. We'll start the day Monday right 

around normal, with our valley locations dropping into the mid to 

upper 40s. Highs Monday likely around warm to about 5 degrees warmer 

than today. 



A southwest flow aloft Monday afternoon will allow for moisture to 

get pumped into the region, bringing a return to rain and storm 

chances by late afternoon and through the night. Given that today is 

fairly dry across the region, this moisture return won't be strong 

enough to bring heavy rains in the short term. Better rains look to 

hold of to Tue/Wed time frame.



.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)

Issued at 327 PM EDT SUN MAY 12 2024



An active week of weather on tap in the extended. The general model 

consensus suggests that a series of weather systems will move across 

the eastern half of the CONUS from Tuesday onward. There should be 

one breif lull in the action Wednesday night and Thursday, as one 

system exits to our east, and a weak ridge of high pressure aloft 

moves through behind the exiting trough. The ridge will be somewhat 

flat, and may extend from the Gulf of Mexico only as far north as 

the lower Ohio Valley. The ridge will be quickly displaced Thursday 

night, as another large trough of low pressure moves in from the 

Great Plains. The first cyclone will bring widespread showers and 

storms to eastern Kentucky Tuesday through Wednesday. Showers and 

storms will be most prevalent during the afternoon and evening 

hours, when heating and instability will be maximized. This scenario 

will repeat itself Thursday night into Saturday, as a second low 

pressure system move through. Used a blend of the latest runs of the 

GFS, GFS Ensembles, and ECMWF models to formulate the extended 

portion of the forecast this time around.



Temperatures should be near normal to begin the period, but will 

steadily increase through out the week, as persistent southerly and 

southwesterly flow sets up across the region. We could easily see 

highs reaching the upper 70s and lower 80s by the end of the week 

across eastern Kentucky. Forecast concerns will include cloud to 

ground lighting that occurs with any thunderstorms and locally heavy 

rainfall with any storms. We are not expecting any hydro issues or 

severe weather across eastern Kentucky in the extended at this

time.



&&



.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening) 

ISSUED AT 815 PM EDT SUN MAY 12 2024



VFR conditions will remain in place through the period, although

clouds will increase and lower with time, especially for the

second half of the period, as an upper level disturbance

approaches from the west. A few light showers will encroach from

the southwest towards Monday evening. Winds will be light and

variable through mid-Monday morning, before increasing to 5 to 10

kts out of the south. 



&&



.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NONE.

&&



$$



UPDATE...GEOGERIAN

SHORT TERM...SHARP

LONG TERM...AR

AVIATION...GEOGERIAN