####018008718#### FXUS63 KMQT 091947 AFDMQT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 347 PM EDT Tue Jun 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Temperatures remain above normal through Thursday. Widespread 80s are expected on Wednesday, approaching 90 in the far west. - Slight risk of strong to severe thunderstorms Wednesday evening across Upper Michigan. Primary hazards are large hail and damaging winds. - Marginal risk of strong to severe storms Thursday afternoon and evening in the south and east. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 347 PM EDT Tue Jun 9 2026 Afternoon RAP analysis and GOES water vapor imagery indicate the shortwave has made it to eastern Upper MI and northern Lower MI with a trailing weak surface trough over Lower MI. Shower coverage has significantly diminished and lingering low chances (20-40%) for light rain showers over the east continue to fall off into this evening as the two features depart to the northeast. Additional accumulations remain below 0.1 inch. The associated cloud cover has prevented significant warming in the east compared to the interior west which has already warmed into the 70s. Highs this afternoon peak in the 70s to mid 80s west and mid 60s to mid 70s in the east and Keweenaw County. The lull in shower activity persists tonight as calm conditions set up. Temps settle into the 50s to low 60s. Fog development is anticipated tonight, potentially becoming dense at times down to 1/4 mile (25-50% chance) in the east and central. Wednesday into Wednesday night bring multiple chances for showers and storms as a closed low develops over the Canadian Prairie and Northern Plains. A warm front lifts toward the UP Wednesday morning alongside an approaching weakening LLJ from the west. MUCAPE of up to 1000-2000 j/kg, mid level lapse rates of 7-7.5C/km and shear between 25-30 kts will be supportive for convection. Severe weather is not expected with this round as forcing weakens and elevated instability/shear diminish with storm progression into the drier and capped airmass in our CWA. This ill-defined line progresses in from the west around 12Z Wednesday, dissipating over the remaining morning hours. Strong WAA brings temps into the upper 70s and 80s with a few spots in the far west reaching near 90. Gulf moisture primes the environment noted by PWATs between 1.75 to 2.00 inches (at or above the the NAEFS 99th climatological percentile) and Tds rising into the mid to upper 60s. Steep lapse rates, elevated instability, and 25-35 kts of shear once again set the stage for convection. Better lift from the upper level jet and a cold front moving in from the west leave severe potential on the table with this round, captured by SPC in their Day 2 Outlook: slight risk for the entire CWA. In addition, because of the anomalously high PWATs and warm rain processes up to around 13 kft, there still remains a Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall during this same time period. The main window of concern is 23Z Wednesday to 6Z Thursday, but forecast confidence is low. CAMs are struggling to come to agreement on placement of storms due to prior convection. Shower and storm chances quickly fall off from west to east into Thursday morning as a drier airmass moves in. Otherwise temps only settle into the upper 50s to mid 60s Wednesday night. Thursday will be hot but less muggy than Wednesday. The NBM shows above 90% probability of high temperatures above 80F in the the majority of the eastern UP and 60-70% in the west. Chances of dewpoints above 60F remain above 50% until 13Z, when anomalously very high moisture exits the region eastward. The ECMWF EFI for CAPE-shear shows low EFI but a SoT>0 for the southern tip of Menominee County and the eastern UP between 0Z Thursday and 0Z Saturday. This aligns with the areas highlighted in SPC's Day 3 Outlook, and indicates most ensemble members are finding solutions near climatology, but a small number of members are presenting more extreme solutions. Potential for severe weather can't be ruled out, but confidence is low. The potential of activity during this period will be driven by a strong upper-level jet streak moving over the region supporting broad lift and consequent shear, and relatively high PWATs aloft (1-1.5"), which could support heavy rainfall. Uncertainty stems from the preexisting environment left behind from the Wednesday storms, timing in the movement of the jet streak over the region, the track and timing of a relatively small surface Colorado Low fusing with the much deeper Hudson Bay low. However, NBM SBCAPE remains well below 500 J/kg Thursday afternoon through Friday morning, and any diurnally-driven higher amounts may not coincide with higher shear. As far as rainfall goes, NBM shows 24-hour rainfall probabilities >0.5" of 50-70% across most of the eastern UP ending at 12Z on Friday. Slivers of probabilities >40% for >1" during the same time frame clip our CWA from the southeast, so higher amounts should not be ruled out. Looking ahead to the weekend, the Hudson Bay low stalls out as it propagates slowly southeastward toward Quebec, sending multiple impulses toward the Upper Great Lakes as it does so. While high and low temperatures approach climatological normal this weekend, these shortwaves lead to rounds of showers with perhaps a rumble of thunder until late Monday, when the low moves east toward the Atlantic. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 145 PM EDT Tue Jun 9 2026 Any lingering rain showers this afternoon should stay east of TAF sites. However, MVFR conditions will linger at SAW through the evening due to abundant low level moisture. Tonight, expect FG to return to terminals, potentially bringing CMX and SAW to airport mins. Expect the winds to be light and lake-breeze influenced with an easterly component today and tonight. && .MARINE... Issued at 347 PM EDT Tue Jun 9 2026 Widespread, dense fog persists this afternoon over Lakes Michigan and Superior due to antecedent rainfall, low dewpoint depressions (<5F) in the marine layer, and light winds <10 kt. Expect this fog to remain throughout the day and to intensify/expand tonight to include all offshore and nearshore zones. The potential for severe thunderstorms with rain begins tomorrow late morning over Lake Superior, with the main round of storms occurring in the evening and overnight hours. The most intense storms will hit western Lake Superior and the Bay of Green Bay earlier in the evening, though eastern Lake Superior could see thunder and rainfall in the second half of the night. Along with these storms, expect sustained southeasterly flow up to 20 kts backing to southerly until the cold front passes in the early hours of Thursday morning, after which point flow will become westerly and diminish somewhat throughout Thursday. During this period of active weather, significant wave heights could build to 2-5 ft in localized offshore areas in Lake Superior. On Friday, a deep layer low-level jet sends sustained southwesterly flow of 20 kts over Lake Superior (<10 kt in the Bay of Green Bay) with gusts up to 30 kt in western Superior Friday afternoon and and into Friday night. During this time of steady flow, significant wave heights build to up to 5-7 ft in western Lake Superior on Friday night. Through the weekend, marine surface conditions remain benign, with sustained winds mostly <15 kt, gusts <20 kt, and waves diminishing to 2 ft by the end of Sunday. On the Bay of Green Bay, sustained winds are <10 kt, gusts <15 kt, and waves <2ft through the weekend. As multiple impulses associated with the Hudson Bay low pass through the region this weekend, Lake Superior and the northern part of the Bay of Green Bay may see occasional showers and a rumble of thunder. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ Wednesday for LSZ162-240>250-263>266. Dense Fog Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 11 AM EDT Wednesday for LSZ251. Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM EDT Wednesday for LSZ267. Lake Michigan... Dense Fog Advisory from 1 AM to 11 AM EDT Wednesday for LMZ221- 248-250. && $$ DISCUSSION...RE/77 AVIATION...TDUD MARINE...RE ####018007061#### FXUS61 KBGM 091949 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 349 PM EDT Tue Jun 9 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Lowered temperatures slightly on Thursday and Friday given expected rain and cloud cover. Lowered precipitation chances for Thursday afternoon and evening as model guidance is too varied at this time. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Temperatures are expected to uptick as the week progresses, with well above normal highs and lows expected through the end of the work week. 2) Multiple systems are expected to move across the region this afternoon through Friday, bringing rain and thunderstorm chances. Some of the thunderstorms could be severe Wednesday through Friday. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... The axis of the ridge that has brought nice weather to the area the past few days has slid east of the area. This has allowed SW flow to return that will pump warm, moist gulf air into the region. Temperatures will top out in the mid to upper 80s across the Finger Lakes into the Mohawk Valley as the first signs of the southern airmass make their way into the region. The rest of the area will remain in the low 80s. We will start to feel the effect to of the more moist airmass on Wednesday as dewpoints climb into the mid 60s by late morning. Morning showers and cloud cover should keep temperatures in the mid to upper 80s across most of the region. Higher terrain east of I-81 will remain in the low 80s. Temperatures Thursday and Friday will climb into the mid 80s to low 90s, increasing to the upper 80s to mid 90s on Friday. The warmest temps are expected to be in the valleys of the Twin Tiers, but with dewpoints expected to be in the mid to upper 60s, heat indices will rise into the low to mid 90s on Thursday and mid to upper 90s on Friday. Some uncertainty remains with temps on Friday as a cold front is expected to move into the area and its timing will have a large impact on temperatures. It currently looks like it will pass through during the afternoon hours, but it will depend on how the incoming trough interacts with the ridge to the east. Heat advisories may be needed. Temperatures will fall back to near normal to slightly above normal for the weekend and into next week. KEY MESSAGE 2... With the ridge axis moving east of the area and flattening out, CNY and NEPA will return to an active weather pattern through the rest of the work week. A amplified shortwave trough is moving across OH into WNY this afternoon, pushing a warm front into the area and developing some rain showers and thunderstorms along the periphery of the high that is sliding eastward. Scattered showers and storms are expected to move across the northern Finger Lakes and into Oneida county starting late this afternoon and into the overnight hours. Storms are not expected to be severe as instability and shear are lacking, but heavy downpours will be possible as PWATs will be around 1.5in. Wednesday will see increased CAPE as the warm front will have fully pushed through the area. A low pressure system moving out of the Great Lakes to the NE will be the main weather driver for the day. The associated trough axis will slide through the area during the afternoon hours. The lift provided by the trough will combine with afternoon CAPE values between 1500-2000 j/kg and low level lapse rates of 7-8C to kick off scattered thunderstorms in the afternoon, with some having the potential to be severe. Currently, a lack of shear is holding back the potential for more widespread severe storms, but with PWATs in the 1.75-2in range, rain driven downdrafts could cause damaging winds. Hail will also be possible, although the lack of updraft organization should keep hail sizes on the low end. Areas hit by slow moving storms or hit by multiple storms could see isolated flash flooding. Wednesday night, our attention turns to the potential for a MCS moving into the region from the Great Lakes. Models have been showing varied paths of the MCS, with some even having it dissipate before it moves into the area as it hits high pressure. This variance is pretty normal for this set up as the positioning and strength of the ridge will guide the path of the system. We are tracking the possibility of an elevated mixed layer (EML) moving overhead during overnight hours, keeping CAPE high and shear modest. If the ELM can be realized, an MCS should develop and ride the edge of the ridge over our area. Timing and location still is uncertain. With the possible rain from the MCS moving through the area either Wed night or Thurs morning, the atmosphere is modeled to become capped in the low levels during the day on Thursday. Elevated convection will still be possible during the afternoon, and if an area is not impacted by morning rain and can see some clearing, an isolated severe storm cannot be ruled out. A cold front is expected to push through the area Friday afternoon. Lift from the front combined with CAPE values approaching 2000 j/kg and modest 0-6km should kick off thunderstorms, some severe, along the front as it pushes through. Timing of the front will be the main severe weather driver for Friday. Many models are starting to show an afternoon passage, but given there is a sharp, narrow ridge propagating across the area ahead of the front, the timing could change based on interaction with the ridge. PWATs will also be high so heavy downpours and isolated flash flooding could be an issue. The weekend should be mostly dry and seasonable as we will sit between a ridge to the south and a trough to the north. Active weather returns Sunday afternoon thru most of next week as we will be under a large upper level trough that will throw multiple shortwaves through the area next week. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Mostly VFR expected through at least 6Z tonight at all terminals. A few showers have developed over western NY but those should dissipate prior to reaching far enough east to impact any airport. After 6Z, a warm front lifts in with cigs falling to MVFR. Some models try and drop cigs to near IFR but given the time of the year and increasing winds later tonight, odds favor MVFR at worst. Rain showers and potential thunderstorms start to form close to 18Z but more likely scenario with the morning clouds is they hold off until after 18Z. Outlook: Wednesday through Friday Night...Scattered showers and thunderstorms may bring occasional restrictions, especially each afternoon. Saturday into Sunday...Cold front moves through with VFR conditions likely, potential fog at ELM overnight. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JTC AVIATION...AJG ####018009029#### FXUS63 KDLH 091950 AFDDLH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 250 PM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and thunderstorms start to affect the Northland this evening and overnight into Wednesday morning. Isolated to scattered severe storms are possible. - A cold front brings another round of possible numerous severe thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon and evening. All hazards are expected if severe storms come to fruition, along with locally heavy rainfall. - Hot temperatures are expected today and Wednesday when afternoon highs away from Lake Superior should be in the 80s to low 90s, with dew points in the 60s and 70s. Heat Advisories are in effect today and may be needed Wednesday. - Additional light rain Thursday with cooling temperatures into the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 245 PM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026 THIS EVENING: A warm front is slowly lifting over north-central to northwest MN this afternoon, allowing for very moist and hot air to overcome the Northland. Heat Advisories remain in effect for portions of the area where the worst of the heat and humidity is expected. While wind shear is lacking along this warm front, instability is plentiful with MUCAPE values of 3000-4500 J/kg. This has led to an agitated cumulus field with some convective attempts already early this afternoon. 12Z CAM guidance suggests that some showers and thunderstorms are possible for Koochiching County between now and 8pm. With that much instability, there is the potential than an isolated storm could produce severe hail or wind. However, there is also the potential that this warm front pushes further north and makes any storms Canada's problem. Otherwise, expect dense fog over Lake Superior to push back inland this evening and overnight. A Dense Fog Advisory has been issued for areas along the North Shore and in the Twin Ports for the areas with the best chance of seeing visibilities drop below a quarter mile tonight. TONIGHT-WEDNESDAY: A strong upper level low and following troughing starts to move into our neck of the woods. The cold front associated with this low should traipse across the Dakotas today, expected to kick off a line of storms that accelerate away from the cold front and into the Northland sometime after midnight tonight. There is some significant variation on timing. We could see them getting in the Brainerd Lakes as early as 1-2am, or as late as 3-5am. Severe storm potential along this front is boosted by anomalous buoyancy and shear, and a strong mid level jet. There is the potential that this line could still be severe as it gets into our area, most likely an elevated wind and hail threat. If storms are able to stay surface based all the way into our area, there is a very slim tornado threat for the Brainerd Lakes to far NW Koochiching County. Wednesday will see the cold front pushing smack across our area, buoyed by the same very unstable airmass that will affect the Dakotas the day before. This has the potential to lead to scattered to numerous severe storms in our area capable of producing all hazards as storms unzip along the cold front midday to early afternoon and then push east. However, there is some uncertainty with this setup, as lingering precipitation and convection Wednesday morning could have deleterious effects on an afternoon severe threat. High-res guidance is a bit of a mess when it comes to figuring out where and when storms might affect the area. The best chance for intense severe storms is over the I-35 corridor and into NW WI, but the entire area could see scattered severe storms at times with such a supportive environment. The best timing for severe storms to develop and push east is between 2-7pm on Wednesday, but there could be a stray storm possible outside of that range. Wednesday should be a decent rainmaker, with a decent chance for a widespread 0.5-1". There could be some locally higher amounts of 2- 4" that briefing lead to some ponding of water, but no widespread flooding is expected at this time. Despite a very cold, stable airmass over Lake Superior, even those along the coastline should be prepared for severe storms tomorrow. First, the lake breeze is NOT expected to make it very far inland. While this could dampen the damaging wind threat if storms aren't too strong, large hail can crash through a the stable layer without any issue. Additionally, the lake breeze boundary can locally increase SRH which can intensify rotation and increase tornado potential. Temperatures Wednesday ahead of any storms will be hot, but have trended down slightly. Expect afternoon highs to be in the 80s away from Lake Superior. Additionally, dew points in the 60s and 70s will make for a very sticky heat. Heat Advisories may be needed Wednesday for the I-35 corridor and east. THURSDAY AND BEYOND: Some additional wrap around precipitation may combine with a low pressure system to our south to produce additional showers and a few non-severe thunderstorms Thursday, along with relatively cooler temperatures. We stay in a zonal flow pattern into the weekend, stuck between a Hudson Bay low to our north and central Plains moisture to our south. This could make for some scattered showers at time, but nothing significant is expected. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1233 PM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026 Mostly VFR conditions continue through this evening. A couple stray showers and maybe a thunderstorm could pop up and affect INL through this afternoon. At DLH, expect dense fog to return overnight. A line of showers and thunderstorms are expected to push across and affect all terminals from very late this evening through the early morning hours Wednesday. At DLH, these showers and thunderstorms might improve visibility. Elsewhere, a period of reduced ceilings and visibilities are expected. Some thunderstorms could become severe with strong winds and large hail, most likely for BRD and INL. Gusty south to southeast winds build across the area through Wednesday morning. && .MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/... Issued at 245 PM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026 Northeast winds continue over the next couple of days. Some afternoon gusts of 10-15 knots are possible at the head of the lake, but no additional small craft advisories are expected at this time in the near term. Patchy to widespread areas of dense fog are likely through Wednesday. A Marine Dense Fog has been issued through that period. Areas of fog will likely ebb and flow with some areas getting clear visibility at times. Expect showers and thunderstorms to return overnight into Wednesday morning with scattered showers and thunderstorms through Wednesday evening. Some storms could become severe, with damaging winds (best chance closest to shore), large hail, and frequent lightning. Overnight into Thursday, winds becoming southwesterly with some stronger gusts approaching 20 knots in the afternoon, especially along the North Shore. Additional rain showers are possible. For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 245 PM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026 More thunderstorms return late this evening into Wednesday along a cold front moving from west to east. Scattered to numerous severe storms may be possible with this, especially on Wednesday afternoon and evening, but there is a risk for severe storms overnight into early Wednesday morning as well. All hazards are possible in these severe storms, including large hail, damaging wind gusts, and an isolated tornado. Good rainfall is expected, with widespread rainfall accumulations of 0.5-1.0"+ likely. Scattered showers Thursday, and then slowly drying out into the weekend. See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions. && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...Dense Fog Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 AM CDT Wednesday for MNZ020-021-037. Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MNZ010-011-018- 025-026-033>036-038. WI...Dense Fog Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 AM CDT Wednesday for WIZ001. Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for WIZ006>008. MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 1 PM CDT Wednesday for LSZ121-140>148- 150. Dense Fog Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 AM CDT Wednesday for LSZ142. && $$ DISCUSSION...Levens AVIATION...Levens MARINE...Levens FIRE WEATHER...Levens