####018006590#### FXUS61 KBOX 071856 AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 156 PM EST Sun Dec 7 2025 .SYNOPSIS... An arctic front moves through overnight into Monday morning with a low chance for brief scattered snow showers, primarily for northern MA. Well below normal temperatures Monday with an arctic airmass overhead. More unsettled overall next week with a few systems moving through the region. This will bring periodic chances for rain/snow showers starting Tuesday night, continuing into Saturday. Very gradual warming trend into Tuesday with highs around normal Wednesday/Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... Key Messages... * A mostly dry arctic front drops through overnight bringing in a period of below normal temperatures. Quiet end to the weekend in progress; main changes this afternoon are in influx of mid/high clouds ahead of a weak mid level shortwave that crosses northern New England overnight. At the surface a moisture starved arctic front drops through between 8pm and 3am. Again, moisture is so limited that it will more than likely be a dry frontal passage; worst case is some light snow showers in northern MA amounting to a coating of snow. A much colder airmass moves overhead with 850 mb temps dropping from -7C Sunday to -17C Monday. As the surface low deepens over the Gulf of Maine Monday the pressure gradient increases so breezy winds will make highs in the 20s feel like the teens. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT/... Key Messages... * Well below normal temperatures. High pressure builds overhead Monday night and the boundary layer decouples; this allows the already cold airmass to cool even more. Expect lows in the single digits (inland) and low/mid teens (along the coast). && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Key Messages: * Periodic chances for precipitation next week starting Tuesday night, continuing through Saturday. * Uncertainty in pattern details (timing, amounts, precip type), especially Wednesday onward. Rather good overall agreement with the synoptic pattern through Tuesday. After then, the timing and amplitude differences continue to grow into next weekend. The overall pattern suggests a deepening mid level trough over the eastern USA for the second half of this upcoming week. The largest detail differences involve the evolution of a mid level cutoff somewhere between Hudson Bay and Quebec. Our proximity to this particular feature will play a role in how much lift can be used to generate cold advection showers across our region. Surface high pressure should move offshore Tuesday, permitting a low pressure moving into the Great Lakes to push its associated fronts across southern New England Tuesday night into Wednesday. Not expecting a lot of precipitation during this time, but some light snow will be possible at night, and especially across the higher terrain. Anticipating more rain than snow Wednesday as temperatures rise to near normal levels. Late next week could feature some cold advection showers, but there are no strong lifting mechanisms anticipated at this time. There are also questions about the amount of moisture which could be available. While there is a prolonged period where these showers are possible, there should be many dry hours late next week. There is higher confidence in the arrival of colder air by the end of next weekend with below normal temperatures returning to our region. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 18Z TAF Update: This afternoon...High Confidence. VFR. VRB winds. Tonight...High Confidence. VFR. Light and variable winds increase and become NW toward 12Z with cold frontal passage, gusting 15 to 20 kts. Monday...High Confidence. VFR. Gusty NW winds with gusts 20-30 kts. Winds gradually decreasing after 18Z. Monday night...High Confidence. VFR. Winds light and variable. KBOS Terminal...High Confidence in TAF. KBDL Terminal...High Confidence in TAF. Outlook /Tuesday through Thursday/... Monday Night: VFR. Tuesday: VFR. Breezy. Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy. Chance SN, slight chance RA. Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Windy with local gusts up to 30 kt. Chance RA, chance SN. Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Windy with local gusts up to 30 kt. Chance RA. Thursday: VFR. Breezy. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Today through Monday night...High confidence. Light S winds become NW tonight around 10-15 kt. Seas 2-3 ft. Winds increase with a cold front Sunday night/Monday morning with seas building to 5-7 ft over the outer waters through Mon. Gusts between 20-30 kt possible across all waters Mon morning, with occasional gusts to 35 kt possible for the northern outer waters. Small Craft Advisories in effect for the waters starting at 06z tonight, continuing through 06z Tue for the outer waters and ending at 21z today for the coastal waters. Monday night...High confidence. N winds 10-15 kts gusting 15-20 kts early, diminishing through the night. Seas decreasing to 2-4 ft after midnight. Outlook /Tuesday through Thursday/... Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Tuesday Night through Wednesday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance of rain. Wednesday Night: Strong winds with gusts up to 35 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance of rain. Thursday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas. Slight chance of rain. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 4 PM EST Monday for ANZ231>235-237-251. Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM Monday to 1 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ250-254>256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Belk/BW NEAR TERM...BW SHORT TERM...BW LONG TERM...Belk AVIATION...Belk/BW MARINE...Belk/BW ####018005952#### FXUS61 KRLX 071858 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 158 PM EST Sun Dec 7 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A disturbance arrives late tonight into Monday bringing accumulating snow to portions of the area southeast of the Ohio River. Dry Tuesday. A warmer, breezier system impacts the region by midweek, colder thereafter. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 920 AM Sunday... The forecast remains on track, with a mainly dry Sunday ahead outside of the potential for an isolated sprinkle or two. As of 634 AM Sunday... Added patchy drizzle for most areas through this afternoon, and removed FZRA from forecast. Rest of forecast remains on track. As of 202 AM Sunday... Surface high pressure shifting east will maintain dry, mostly cloudy conditions today. A decaying low-pressure system arrives this evening, pushing a moisture-starved cold front through the region. This will result in low ceilings and light precipitation, which will transition to light snow tonight due to strong cold air advection. Highs this afternoon will generally be in the 40s, and lows in the 20s tonight. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 202 AM Sunday... Lingering snow showers, mainly along the mountains, will gradually end Monday afternoon. Most areas will see accumulations under 1 inch, though the central mountains may see high-end localized amounts of 2 to 3 inches. Temperatures will plummet behind the cold front on Monday. Highs will struggle to reach the mid 30s in the lowlands and the low 20s in the northeast mountains. Monday night will turn very cold, with lows dropping to the lower 20s in far southern WV and SW VA, and into the teens across SE Ohio and northern WV. Any remaining mountain snow showers will end quickly Monday night as the base of the trough exits the region. On Tuesday, high pressure building along the eastern mountains will create southwest breezes, warming temperatures back to normal levels (40s in the lowlands and upper 20s in the mountains). By late Tuesday night into Wednesday, a cold front associated with a strong clipper system tracking across the Great Lakes will bring the next chance for precipitation. Precipitation will start as liquid, transitioning into a wintry mix Wednesday night and Thursday. A warmer, breezier system impacts the region by midweek. Expect near to above normal temperatures Wednesday and Thursday. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 202 AM Sunday... A series of disturbances will move through our area towards the end of the week. Thursday will likely see a sloppy mix of rain and snow for most of us, with all snow expected in the northeast mountains. Much colder air rushes in Thursday night, turning any leftover precipitation to snow by Friday. Prepare for a deep freeze heading into the weekend. Highs on Friday will struggle to reach the mid 30s. By the weekend, temperatures drop even further, with daytime highs only in the low to mid 20s for the lowlands and dipping into the teens or single digits in the mountains. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 150 PM Sunday... Widespread VFR conditions continue across the area into tonight ahead of the next disturbance. Flight conditions will then gradually deteriorate through the night with lowering CIGs (MVFR/IFR/LIFR), along with MVFR/IFR VSBY restrictions (southeast of the Ohio River) as a rain/snow mix transitions to mainly snow. Snowfall and associated restrictions will persist through the end of the TAF period, with the worst conditions being expected at BKW/CRW. A return to VFR could occur across the far north (CKB/PKB) by the end of the TAF period, although confidence in this remains low. Light and variable flow today will become NNE/NE tonight and remain as such through the end of TAF period. Breezes up to ~ 15kts could occur from time to time. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High through this evening, medium thereafter. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and intensity of restrictions tonight into Monday associated with snow may vary from the forecast. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EST 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M L H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z MONDAY... IFR conditions are possible in snow and/or low stratus into Monday night southeast of the Ohio River, and then again Wednesday night and Thursday (area-wide) with a rain/snow mix with the next system. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 9 PM EST Monday for WVZ015-024>028-033-034-515>524. OH...None. KY...None. VA...Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 9 PM EST Monday for VAZ003-004. && $$ SYNOPSIS...GW NEAR TERM...ARJ/GW SHORT TERM...ARJ LONG TERM...ARJ AVIATION...GW