####018005623#### FXUS62 KMFL 140610 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 210 AM EDT Tue May 14 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACHES... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Wednesday) Issued at 201 AM EDT Tue May 14 2024 A mid-level disturbance developing over the Midwestern United States is producing perturbations that move from the western Gulf into the peninsula of Florida through a portion of the short term. The warm front will continue its retreat northward allowing for the region to remain in this hot and unsettled pattern through mid-week. While the more widespread convective focus may remain north of southern Florida, sea breeze collisions will spur late afternoon/evening storms that could be stout with some strong to severe storms not out of the question due to cold air aloft and surface-based instability which could at times overcome whatever inhibition could remain. 500 mb temperatures will remain in the -10 to -8 deg C range through a good portion of the period and when favorable lapse rates materialize within the hail growth zone, there could be storms capable of producing large hail, frequent to excessive lightning, and locally damaging wind gusts. The localized threat of tornadic activity, such as funnel clouds, around boundary collisions is also something to be monitored. Outside of the storms, temperatures will continue to be stifling with a warming trend underway. Heat index values will top the triple digits with the potential for Heat Advisories becoming necessary as early as Wednesday. As the mid-level low travels eastward, the surface cold front will move across the panhandle and enter the peninsula of Florida on Wednesday. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 201 AM EDT Tue May 14 2024 A frontal boundary could enter south central Florida by Thursday, briefly allowing a window for some increased rain chances but the weak front lacks the support for more widespread activity which could provide more substantial relief from the heat. Temperatures aloft will cool to around -9 to -10C on Wednesday into Thursday which could support an isolated strong storm or two. The main story through this forecast period will be the potential for hazardous heat which will linger into the weekend. Most of South Florida could experience heat necessitating at least a Heat Advisory through Saturday and this potential will be monitored through the week. Afternoon high temperatures are expected to be in the 90s area- wide each afternoon. Lower to mid 90s will be more likely for coastal areas with portions of interior South Florida potentially approaching the upper 90s or low 100s. Overnight low temperatures along the east coast metro mid to late week could struggle to fall below 80 degrees and even portions of the Naples metro may not fall below the upper 70s. This could lead to a period of several days where relentless sunshine, building heat, and a lack of relief overnight could lead to escalating heat illness risk. By the weekend, the mid-level low begins to exit into the Atlantic off the Mid-Atlantic states with the potential for a southward advancement of the associated front. If the front is able to move into the area, it could provide a small bit of relief from the heat. If the front stalls to the north, the excessive heat risk could linger through the end of the forecast period. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 201 AM EDT Tue May 14 2024 Generally VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period, although some MVFR cigs will be possible early this morning over the northern east coast terminals. SErly winds will remain around 10kts this morning, becoming more southerly with gusts 20-25kts expected once again during the afternoon. && .MARINE... Issued at 201 AM EDT Tue May 14 2024 A southeasterly to southerly wind flow will become southwesterly as the next cold front approaches on Wednesday. Afternoon and evening sea breeze storms will still be possible, with a focus around Lake Okeechobee. Temperatures will be unseasonably hot though the breeze could offer some relief in the shade. && .BEACHES... Issued at 201 AM EDT Tue May 14 2024 The wind flow will become more southerly to southwesterly today into Wednesday. Due to the combination of low tide time this morning and the last several days of the persistent southeast winds, the high risk of rip currents along the Atlantic beaches will continue through at least this evening. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 91 80 95 80 / 10 10 30 20 West Kendall 93 78 97 76 / 10 0 20 20 Opa-Locka 93 79 97 78 / 10 10 30 20 Homestead 91 79 95 78 / 10 10 20 20 Fort Lauderdale 90 80 94 79 / 20 10 40 30 N Ft Lauderdale 91 80 95 79 / 20 10 40 20 Pembroke Pines 95 80 99 79 / 10 10 30 20 West Palm Beach 92 78 96 76 / 30 10 50 30 Boca Raton 92 79 97 78 / 20 10 40 30 Naples 92 79 91 78 / 0 10 30 20 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for FLZ168-172-173. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ650-651-670- 671. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...RAG LONG TERM....RAG AVIATION...Culver ####018009371#### FXUS62 KCHS 140613 AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 213 AM EDT Tue May 14 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A warm front will lift northward through the area Tuesday morning, followed by a cold front from the west Tuesday night. High pressure will return to the area by Thursday, followed by another storm system this weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... A complex of thunderstorms will continue to move through the Deep South and northwest Gulf of Mexico late tonight, eventually traversing across southern Georgia and northern Florida around daybreak. The relatively quiet conditions early tonight will give way to increasing convective chances late, mainly starting a few hours prior to daybreak while isentropic ascent persists and various mid-level impulses traverse aloft as a sfc warm front lifts north into southern areas. Isolated to scattered showers remain possible across the area for the next few hours, but with increasing instability to the south of the northward advancing warm front, the risk for thunderstorms will climb approaching daybreak. Any small severe potential will likely remain after 6 AM, but a few stronger thunderstorms are not out of the question due to the proximity of the warm front. Overnight lows will not change much through the night, and could even increase in wake of the warm front prior to daybreak. There are some indications of a weak wave of low pressure forming near the coast of Georgia or lower South Carolina near dawn and should this occur, could enhance the risk for both thunderstorms and the intensity of the rain, mainly along the coastal corridor. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/... Tuesday and Tuesday night: The most active portion of the short term period will come Tuesday and Tuesday night with a rather complex forecast. As Tuesday morning begins, a warm front will be lifting northward across the forecast area which should then clear to the north by late morning. Forcing aloft will be provided by a closed low and associated trough near the Mississippi Valley that will gradually work eastward through the day. At the start of the day, the main convective complex will likely be crossing north Florida, with other convection ongoing along and near the warm front. While the activity across north Florida should stay south of the Altamaha, it could sneak into far southern southeast Georgia along the coast and bring the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms. Along the warm front, thunderstorms should be ongoing and lifting to the north and northeast through the morning. We have the highest rain chances during this morning time period, with 60-80 percent along the southeast South Carolina coast and along the Savannah River and to the northeast. As the warm front gets north of the Santee River and the activity to the south pushes out over the coastal waters, we should see a lull before additional convection tries to develop later in the afternoon after recovery ahead of the cold front from the west. This activity will likely extend well into the evening before the frontal zone pushes off the coast late. Activity during this time should be more scattered in coverage, and rain chances are held more into the 30-40 percent range as a result. Severe Thunderstorms: With the morning activity, the severe threat will likely be tied to the environment along and near the warm front. Model soundings do show MLCAPE around 1,000 J/kg, with 40-50 knots of mid-level flow. There is also some decent veering thanks to the presence of the warm front that could yield SRH values on the order of 150-200 m2/s2. So while damaging wind gusts are the primary threat, the ambient wind profiles will also produce a low end tornado threat. The threat should wane by midday as the activity moves off to the northeast with the front. Attention then turns to the afternoon and evening. While the veering noted in the morning diminishes, mid-level flow remains notable in the 40-50 knot range. Also, mid-levels dry out and yield DCAPE values of 1,000 J/kg or more which should help to enhance the damaging wind gust threat. This potential with scattered thunderstorms will continue into the late evening hours. Rainfall: Total rainfall amounts are still generally expected to be in the 0.50-1.50" range. The highest amounts are expected along the southeast South Carolina coast up through the Charleston Tri-County region. Rainfall amounts, especially at the high end of the range, will be very dependent on exactly where thunderstorms track. Wednesday through Thursday: The area will be situated within the circulation around an area of low pressure near the Outer Banks. While a few showers could linger across the Tri-County region early on Wednesday, the bulk of the day is expected to be dry. Weak high pressure will build in on Thursday and bring a quiet weather day. Highs each day are forecast to reach the upper 80s for most areas. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Shortwave ridging will pass through Thursday night ahead of a shortwave that will cross into the Appalachians and the East Coast through Saturday. A cold front is expected to approach Friday and Friday night and push through the area on Saturday. An area of thunderstorms is depicted by the model consensus and should impact the area at some point during this time period. Active weather could extend into Sunday as well, but there is uncertainty as to the timing of the front and any thunderstorms associated with it. So the overall theme of the long term period is increased rain chances and above normal temperatures. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... A complex of showers/thunderstorms will shift just south of the local area early morning while a warm front lifts north across the area shortly after daybreak. The front will be the main contributor or reduced cigs/vsbys, with at least scattered showers at times late tonight into mid/late morning Tuesday. A thunderstorm can not be ruled out at any terminal Tuesday morning with the warm front, but probabilities are much too low at this stage to mention in the TAFs. MVFR ceilings are expected to develop between 06-08Z at KSAV, and should be delayed until 10Z at KCHS and KJZI. However, IFR is possible at times, and adjustments could be made later on along/near the warm front lifting north. VFR conditions should arrive to all terminals Tuesday afternoon, starting at the SAV around 19Z, then at CHS/JZI around 21Z, and should persist through 06Z Wednesday. However tempo flight restrictions could eventually be needed at any terminal for afternoon thunderstorms should probabilities increase. Extended Aviation Outlook: Additional showers and thunderstorms could impact the terminals with brief flight restrictions Tuesday evening. Otherwise, VFR conditions should prevail. && .MARINE... Tonight: South-southeast winds will remain elevated across local waters overnight as a warm front lifts north late. Small Craft Advisories will continue across Georgia waters through daybreak with winds gusting around 25 kt at times. Seas will also remain elevated as low pressure attempts to take shape just south of local waters. In general, seas should peak near 6-7 ft across offshore Georgia waters although some 8 ft waves are possible during the next hour or two. Seas should range between 4-6 ft across nearshore Georgia waters although 7 ft waves could drift into waters beyond 10 nm from the coast. Further north, seas should range between 3-5 ft across nearshore South Carolina waters, but will show signs of approaching 6 ft around daybreak as a warm front lifts north. Tuesday through Saturday: A warm front will lift through the waters early Tuesday and turn the flow from southeasterly to be more southerly. Winds should mostly peak in the 15-20 knot range, but there could be a few gusts to 25 knots at times. Winds will diminish a bit later Tuesday, but then become southwesterly and pick up ahead of a cold front that will push offshore late Tuesday night. Winds should mostly be in the 15-20 knot range during this time. Winds will become more westerly Wednesday night into Thursday, then southerly by Friday. Seas will be highest Tuesday and Tuesday night, with 3-5 ft common, and up to 6 ft expected in the outer Georgia waters and the Charleston County waters. The advisory for the outer Georgia waters goes through noon Tuesday and the Charleston County waters goes into Tuesday evening. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for AMZ350. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT early this morning for AMZ354. Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT today for AMZ374. && $$ NEAR TERM...DPB SHORT TERM...DPB LONG TERM...BSH AVIATION...DPB MARINE...DPB