####018004142#### FXUS62 KCHS 250407 AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 1207 AM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A weak trough will drop into the region tonight into Thursday. High pressure builds back into the region late week through the early part of next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... The risk for isolated showers will persist mainly from Colleton County north as a weak surface trough drops south. Lows from the upper 50s/near 60 inland to the mid 60s at the beaches look good. Only minor changes will be made for the midnight update. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/... A weak front/trough will push offshore as a wedge of high pressure builds south Thursday. Aloft, a large omega block will begin to set up with amplifying troughs over the Western Atlantic and Western U.S. A ridge axis over the Central U.S will gradually shift toward the Eastern Seaboard, and settle in place through at least the first half of the weekend. Overall, quiet weather is expected with little to no forcing; however models generate a few light showers at times with onshore flow. Slight chance PoPs are in place for Friday afternoon across inland southeast Georgia where there has been some persistence, but otherwise the chance for measurable rainfall was low enough to preclude mention in the forecast. High temperatures remain within a few degrees of normal, generally in the upper 70s to lower 80s each day. Lows both nights range from the mid/upper 50s inland to the mid 60s along the immediate coast. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... The pattern remains largely unchanged through the early week with the omega block and deep high pressure in place. This favors increasing temperatures and virtually zero rain chances. The upper ridge axis will finally begin to shift offshore Tuesday as a weakening trough and accompanying weak cold front moves into the eastern U.S. It should be another dry day across much of the area, however a few showers could impact inland areas during the latter half of the day. Temperatures will start the period in the upper 70s/low 80s and will rise to the upper 80s/near 90F by the middle of the next week. && .AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... 26/06z TAF Discussion: KCHS/KJZI/KSAV: VFR through 27/06z Friday. Band of clouds with cigs 6000-8000 ft will cross the terminals over the next few hours. Risk for isolated showers will linger near KCHS and KJZI through about 09z then end. VCSH was maintained for these two terminals. No impacts are expected. Shallow cumulus will develop this afternoon, but will gradually mix out as the sea breeze moves inland. Extended Aviation Outlook: Prevailing VFR. && .MARINE... Overnight: Southwest winds will diminish to near 10 kt overnight as a surface trough slips south into the local marine areas. A few showers could impact mainly the South Santee-Edisto Beach nearshore leg and Charleston Harbor during the overnight hours, although the overall precip potential is very low. Seas will average 2-3 ft in the nearshore waters out to 20 NM and the 3-4 ft over the Georgia offshore leg out 20-60 NM. Thursday through Monday: Winds will shift ENE Thursday and then persist through late week as high pressure builds from the north. Brief surge will bring winds to the 15-20 kt range Friday afternoon/evening. Seas in turn will build to 2-4 ft across the nearshore waters out to 20 nm and 5-6 feet across the outer Georgia waters. A Small Craft Advisory could be needed for that particular marine zone for a brief period overnight Friday. Winds veer more southerly early next week with no additional marine concerns. && .EQUIPMENT... The KCLX radar is undergoing electrical maintenance and is tentatively scheduled to return to service April 26th. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$