####018011523#### FXUS64 KHGX 051725 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1225 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 947 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024 Bulk of the shortwave that brought another widespread area of showers/tstms to the region has passed to the E/NE. Exception is the tail end which is generally situated along the I-10 corridor. An east-west oriented boundary and pooling 2" PW's are (and will be) the focus for some embedded stronger downpours for the rest of the day as it trends ese into the H85 20-30kt llvl jet. Good news is this is mostly impacting areas that have seen the least amount of rainfall this past week. Not so good news is that it is falling in a more metropolitan area w/ more concrete. Any heavy rain that falls in a short time period will be prone to runoff and cause street flooding and rises on area creeks, streams, bayous. Given latest hires model trends, and outside of the ongoing river impacts, think any additional ff impacts will probably be more on the localized scale. There always seem to be a few overperforming cells, so overall messaging will remain pretty much status quo into the early evening followed by a more optimistic outlook thereafter in terms of significant rainfall chances/coverage. 47 && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 205 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024 - The next round of showers and storms has arrive and will continue into this afternoon. Some storms may become strong to severe with gusty winds and hail possible. - Flood Watch remains in effect for counties along and north of I-10 through 7pm this evening. Generally expecting up to 1-3" of rain within the Watch area with locally higher amounts of up to 4-8" if and where training storms develop. - Moderate to Major River Flooding will continue for at least the next several days along parts of the Brazos River, Trinity River and West Fork/East Fork of the San Jacinto River. - Hot and humid weather will be in place for the majority of the upcoming work-week && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday Night) Issued at 205 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024 Showers and thunderstorms, some strong to severe, have already begun to develop north of Montgomery County. We can expect an increase in the coverage of these showers and storms through the next several hours producing a quick downpour of 0.5" of rain or less, gusty winds, and maybe even some hail. The main concern will come during the early morning as a now-developing MCS moves through the region from west to east bringing with it heavy rainfall and a chance of strong to severe thunderstorms. MCS looks to pass through the B-CS area between 4am to 5am, the I-45 Corridor between 6am and 8am, and then through Liberty/Chambers counties by 8am and 10am. Rain rates with the strongest storms within this MCS will be around 1-3" per hour, so the quicker it progresses through the area the better. The MCS will also bring the a threat of strong gusty winds, hail, and cannot out-rule a brief tornado either. SPC maintains a Marginal (level 1 of 5) for Severe Storms across the region. Once the MCS is through, the rain threat does not end. CAMs have been indicating a west-to-east band of showers and thunderstorms developing and training somewhere across the region in the wake of the MCS. Exact location of where this band of showers and thunderstorms develops will be determined by meso-features unknown at this time, but it is more likely to develop somewhere between I-10 and the Pineywoods region. Chance for showers and storms will continue into the afternoon/early evening hours before dying out. A Flood Watch is in effect through 7pm for counties along and north of I-10. After all the rainfall we have received in the past week, the soils are very saturated. FFG (both 1 and 3 hour) are around 2 to 3" for areas along and north of I-10 with Walker County into the Pineywoods region being especially susceptible. Within the Watch area, generally expecting up to around 1-3" of rain through Sunday evening with isolated higher amounts of 4-8" possible. These higher amounts will most likely be seen where the strongest storms of the MCS move over and where the training line of showers and storms develop. The excessive rainfall outlook for today from the WPC has a Moderate Risk (level 3 of 4) for areas along and north of I-10, Slight Risk (level 2 of 4) for most of the rest of the area with an area of Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for the counties around Matagorda Bay. There is ongoing moderate to major river flooding along portions of the Trinity River, Brazos River, West & East Forks of the San Jacinto River (more on this in the Hydro section below). Not only does this mean that the rainfall that happens today will be slower than normal to drain, but may also see additional rises of the rivers. Please remember: - Do not drive through or play in flood waters. Never truly know how deep the water is, what is lurking in the waters, nor how fast the water is moving. - Do not go around barricades. Even if the flood waters have gone down, the ground may not be stable. - Do no return to homes until officials deem it safe. Weak midlevel ridging moves overhead Sunday night into Monday, keeping the rain chances low. However, cannot out-rule a pop-up shower Monday afternoon due to lingering low level moisture and daytime heating. High temperatures Sunday will be in the upper 70s to low 80s with overnight lows in the upper 60s to low 70s. Temperatures rise on Monday thanks to the ridging aloft and southerly flow at the surface with high temperatures in the mid to upper 80s and low temperatures Monday night in the low to mid 70s. Heat indicies will approach the low to mid 90s on Monday - but this will only get worse as we head into the long term. Fowler && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Saturday) Issued at 205 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024 Southwesterly flow aloft, southerly flow at the surface bringing Gulf fueled moisture, and mostly sunny skies will lead to our first real taste of summer in SE Texas during the middle part of the week. High temperatures Tuesday through Thursday will be in the low to even mid 90s for most of the region. Heat indicies will be in the upper 90s to near 100 degrees on Tuesday and Wednesday, and then even up to 105 degrees on Thursday. I even suspect that the very saturated grounds due to the recent rainfall may result in even higher dew points across the area making the heat indicies even worse. Our bodies have not acclimated yet to the heat and humidity, so these early season heat events end up being more troublesome. While it will likely be below normal Heat Advisory thresholds, there may be a need for a Heat Advisory Wednesday or Thursday since these early season events can be more impactful. Either way, please be sure to stay hydrated and take frequent breaks if needed to be outside and while doing post-flood recovery efforts. While rain chances will remain minimal through Wednesday, a slow moving boundary from the north will help bring increased coverage of showers and thunderstorms Thursday into Friday. Global models are currently hinting that this boundary is able to push all the through the region with high pressure settling in for Saturday. However, I am not super confident this boundary will actually make it all the way off the coast as we have been burned by this type of feature beyond Day 5 many times during this time of year. Fowler && .AVIATION... (18Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 1222 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024 Another round of showers and storms is entering the area this afternoon. Expect activity to increase across SE Texas with the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms. These storms may produce gusty erratic winds and large hail. VFR CIGs across the area at present, expect MVFR to mix in there this afternoon as next round of showers moves in. CIGs overnight will drop to MVFR/IFR levels with some MVFR VSBYs closer to sunrise. Expect CIGs to remain at least MVFR through the period with some improvement near the end of the period. && .MARINE... Issued at 205 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024 Can expect increasing showers and storms through daybreak with possibly line of strong to even severe thunderstorms moving through during the early morning hours today (between 5 and 10am). Scattered showers and storms will then be possible through the evening. Onshore winds around 10 to 15kt with occasional gusts to 20kt will prevail through midweek with seas around 4 to 6ft. Small Craft may need to exercise caution levels at times. Because of the continued onshore flow, there will be a moderate to high risk of strong rip currents through the next several days. Drier, but much warmer conditions are expected through midweek. Fowler && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 401 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024 The Flood Watch has been extended to 7pm CDT Sunday evening and expanded to now include Austin/Colorado Counties. Additional heavy rainfall is expected in areas that have already received excessive amounts of rain over the past few days. At this time, we are anticipating an average of an additional 1-3" of rain with smaller areas of 4-8" possible within the watch area. With soils already saturated, this will likely lead to quick runoff and rapid responses along area rivers/creeks/bayous. Moderate to major river flooding continues for parts of Southeast Texas, particularly along portions of the Trinity, San Jacinto, and Navasota rivers. The following river points are either at or forecast to go into Major flood stage: - Trinity River (Riverside): Major Flood Stage - Trinity River (Liberty): Major Flood Stage - Trinity River (Goodrich): Major Flood Stage - Trinity River (Moss Bluff): Moderate forecast to go to Major - West Fork San Jacinto (Conroe): Major Flood Stage - West Fork San Jacinto (Humble): Major Flood Stage - San Jacinto (Sheldon): Major Flood Stage - East Fork San Jacinto (New Caney): Major Flood Stage - Navasota River (Normangee): Major Flood Stage Remember to heed any instructions from your local officials and to never travel through flooded areas or roadways. TURN AROUND, DON'T DROWN. Please monitor updated forecasts via the NWS AHPS website and/or the new NWS NWPS webpage (https://water.noaa.gov/) as the river flood threat continues.  Batiste && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 80 70 85 73 / 50 20 10 0 Houston (IAH) 80 72 86 75 / 70 20 10 0 Galveston (GLS) 79 74 81 75 / 60 20 0 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ163-164-176>179- 195>200-210>214-300-313. High Rip Current Risk until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ436>439. GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 7 PM CDT this evening for GMZ370-375. && $$ SHORT TERM...Fowler LONG TERM....Fowler AVIATION...Adams MARINE...Fowler ####018006965#### FXUS61 KALY 051725 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 125 PM EDT Sun May 5 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Along with much cooler temperatures, rain will continue through much of the day before tapering to showers for this evening into tonight. Clouds will break for some sunshine on Monday with milder temperatures returning to the region. Warm and sunny weather is expected on Tuesday before the threat for showers returns Wednesday into the latter portion of the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 125 PM EDT...A slow moving frontal boundary is located over Ontario and across the Great Lakes. Ahead of this storm system, decent isentropic lift thanks to a south-southwest low level jet of 30-40 kts is allowing for a steady area of light to moderate rainfall over much of the region. The steadiest and heaviest rain is in a band from the eastern Catskills and mid Hudson Valley northeast through the Capital Region, Taconics and Berkshires and into southern VT. Through the afternoon hours, this band of steadiest rainfall will be slowly shifting eastward. Temps are fairly uniform early this afternoon with values in the mid 40s to lower 50s. With plenty of clouds/rain around and a persistent surface S-SE wind, temps will remain steady through the evening hours and even into tonight. Steady rain will become more showery this evening, as the short wave aloft moves through with the surface front still lagging back to our west. Will continue to mention likely/categorical PoPs through the evening. The short wave tracks east into New England overnight, while the surface front approaches from central NY. So scattered showers could linger through the overnight hours. Total rainfall expected to be around 0.50-1.25" with the greatest amounts in the Mohawk Valley and SW Adirondacks where the S-SW low level jet intersects the higher terrain. The rainfall should not result in any hydro concerns given dry conditions over the past several days. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... The flow will shift to a more W-NW direction as zonal flow aloft sets up on Mon. However, the slow-moving front will still be tracking E-SE across the area during the morning to early afternoon hours. So while there will be a drying trend through the day, isolated to widely scattered showers will be possible along the front as it passes through. PWATs lower considerably late in the day, as surface high pressure starts to build east from the Great Lakes. Breaks of sunshine should occur during the afternoon. With good mixing developing and mild temperatures aloft, highs should reach the mid/upper 60s in the mountains to lower/mid 70s in the valleys. High pressure builds east into our region Mon night into Tue, providing dry/tranquil conditions. With clearing skies Mon night, lows look to be mainly in the 40s. Dry, sunny and warm weather expected on Tue with high pressure remaining in place. With a light NW breeze and dry low levels, highs could reach the mid/upper 70s in most lower elevation locations. After a dry evening, chances for showers will start to increase overnight as a warm front associated with an eastward advancing cyclone over the central Great Lakes quickly approaches. Will continue mention of chance PoPs for now due to some timing differences among the guidance. Lows will be a bit milder with the increasing clouds, ranging from mid/upper 40s north of Albany to mid 50s south. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Unsettled conditions through the long term period, as upper level troughing develops across the Great Lakes/upper midwest, and gradually builds eastward. Mid/upper level disturbances ahead of the developing trough will bring several rounds of showers and/or steady rainfall to the region during the period. Initial disturbance tracks across the region Wednesday. Long- term guidance suggests some respectable instability/mid level lapse rates track across the region with this disturbance, especially areas south of I-90. Depending on the exact track and timing of this system, there could be strong thunderstorms, especially areas south of I-90. Second disturbance tracks just south of the region Thursday-Thursday night, bringing another round of showers or steady rain. Yet another disturbance may bring showers or steady rain for a portion of Saturday. Temperatures will trend below normal during the period, although initially may be above normal Wednesday with highs in the 70s for some valley areas south/east of Albany. Otherwise, highs mainly in the 50s and 60s, perhaps even cooler should widespread steady rainfall occur. Lows in the 40s, with some 30s possible across higher elevations. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Through 12Z Monday...A frontal system approaching from the west will bring occasional rain to the TAF sites through most of today. Rain tapers off this evening, with patchy drizzle and isolated showers lingering through Monday morning. Periods of light to moderate rain will affect the TAF sites through today, with mainly MVFR to occasional IFR Cigs. Vsbys will be mainly VFR/MVFR, however will drop to IFR within areas of moderate rain. Steady rain should taper off from west to east between roughly 22Z/Sun-03Z/Mon. Some lingering showers/drizzle and areas of fog will be possible in the wake of the steady rain tonight through early Monday morning, with MVFR/IFR Vsbys and IFR Cigs likely. Winds will be mainly southeast to south at 8-12 KT through today, with some gusts up to 20-25 KT, especially at KALB. Winds will become south to southwest and decrease to 5-10 KT later this evening. Low level wind shear is possible at any TAF sites where winds decrease to less than 10 KT this afternoon. At this time, it appears winds at the TAF sites will remain above this level, so no low level wind shear has been indicated at this time, however trends will need to be watched for possible subsequent inclusion. Outlook... Sunday Night: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Likely SHRA. Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Wednesday: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA...TSRA. Wednesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Thursday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Frugis NEAR TERM...Frugis/JPV SHORT TERM...JPV LONG TERM...KL AVIATION...KL ####018006089#### FXUS63 KABR 051729 AAC AFDABR Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 1229 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Southeasterly winds increase this afternoon ahead of an approaching low. Highest gusts of 45 to 50 mph expected west river. A Wind Advisory is in effect this afternoon and evening west of the Missouri River. Strong, gusty winds spread east on Monday. - Strong low pressure will move into the Dakotas late tonight through Tuesday morning with showers and thunderstorms. Strong to severe storms are possible late Monday afternoon through Monday evening. - An unsettled and at times wet pattern looks to persist through Thursday. Temperatures will begin to turn cooler Tuesday with daily readings near to slightly below normal. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1224 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024 See updated aviation discussion below. UPDATE Issued at 1009 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024 Current forecast is on track. Still looking for winds to increase by midday or so, especially across central South Dakota where gusts of 40 to 50 mph still look possible. No changes made to wind headlines at this time. No changes made to temperatures. && .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON/... Issued at 519 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024 Sfc high pressure slides east today leaving South Dakota squeezed between the exiting high and an approaching Rocky Mountains low. Southeast winds will increase as a result. The wind advisory remains in effect for west river counties this afternoon as winds gust to 45 to 50 mph. As the low pushes into the Dakotas on Monday, strong winds will spread east across the region. Upper ridging and good mixing will help push highs into the 70s today across much of the area. A strong 979mb low then dominates the story for Monday. It's well-stacked with a deep accompanying upper trough and strong 45 to 55kt llj by Monday. Showers and thunderstorms will spread from west to east on Monday. As the system pivots through western South Dakota from 21z Monday through 3z Tuesday, chances for strong to severe storms may increase. SPC has yet to expand the marginal risk out of Lyman and Buffalo county, but models are starting to key into a more expansive risk for low-topped supercells ahead of the low in the warm sector. Can't rule out any types of severe weather at this time, as the tornado composite is even up to 1 on the border of Stanley, Hughes, and Lyman counties at 21z (at the boundary of the warm sector/dry slot in very strong turning and shear). However, the main concern is for amplification of already strong environmental winds and resulting gusts well over 60 mph. CAPE will be the one limiting factor, as there's only a very narrow, quickly moving corridor. 0-1km CAPE maxes out at 21z Monday around 700 to 1000 J/kg over Stanley county then arcs north and east through 3z, falling as it goes through the evening. Bulk shear ranges from 45 to 65 kts at this time. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 519 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024 Monday evening, we continue to see an upper level trough over the region. This is expected to continue to circulate over the area for a few days before moving east to park over the Great Lakes region. While circulating over MT/ND/SD, models show the low sending out multiple bands of shortwave energy. These will drive several rounds of rainfall during the first half of the forecast. Once the low moves east, we move to more of the upwind side of the trough with some shortwave energy still remaining in the area. By Saturday evening the low has moved far enough east that the upper level pattern can transition for more of a northwest flow and we no longer have shortwave energy over the region. Monday evening has significant chances for rain (50-75% decreasing after midnight) and there is a chance of some possibly strong storms, although CAPE values are low. NBM shows a consistent low level chance for some rain Tuesday through Thursday morning, with some localized increases for heavier showers. As for QPF probabilities, Monday evening to Tuesday evening areas east of a line from Hecla to Watertown have a 50 to 65% chance of more than 0.25 inches, as does western Corson county. The rest of the forecast area has less than 50% chance of more than 0.25 inches. The rest of the period remains at around or less than a 20% chance of 0.25 inches in 24 hours. Although we still have that shortwave energy in the region through Saturday, there is not much moisture for it to bring rain chances, so Friday and Saturday looks pretty dry. Temperatures through the week look to remain 5 to 10 degrees below average. However, things start to warm back up towards normal for the weekend. Winds are still expected to be strong on Tuesday, especially along the ND/SD border and in north central SD. Winds are expected to die down after sunset and stay down for the rest of the period. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1224 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024 Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG VFR conditions will prevail across the area this afternoon and tonight. IFR/MVFR cigs will overspread the area Monday morning, along with periods of rain across central South Dakota. South to southeast winds will be in the 15 to 30 knot range this afternoon and tonight, with gusts in excess of 40 knots possible across central South Dakota. Wind speeds will increase further across the entire area Monday morning, generally in the 20 to 35 knot range with gusts in excess of 40 knots. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...Wind Advisory until midnight CDT /11 PM MDT/ tonight for SDZ003- 015-033-045-048. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...Parkin SHORT TERM...Wise LONG TERM...KK AVIATION...Parkin