####018009249#### FXUS63 KDTX 090446 AFDDTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 1146 PM EST Mon Dec 8 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Light snow begins early Tuesday morning, with accumulations ranging from a dusting near the Ohio border to 2 inches in the Thumb. - Areas of light freezing rain/drizzle possible during the day Tuesday before temperatures rise near the freezing mark Tuesday evening. - Snow briefly returns Tuesday night before changing over to liquid rain for most of Southeast Michigan; areas along/north of M-46 could maintain all snow leading to accumulations in excess of 3 inches. - Colder air returns Wednesday evening with a bit of additional light snow possible, followed by the next arctic airmass heading into the weekend. - Periodic lake effect snow chances exist from Thursday onward. && .AVIATION... Dry easterly feed around surface high pressure north of Lake Huron will support gradual deep isentropic downglide through much of tonight. Prevailing VFR conditions are expected through approximately 09-10z. Clipper system will then track into Lower Michigan directing lift and absolute moisture advection across the taf sites primarily in the 10-16z time window Tuesday. Forecast soundings support snow throughout much of the precipitation period with heaviest LIFR activity expected at the northern taf sites. Forecasted moisture profiles suggest that deep moisture will strip out of the midlevels at/after 16z which will bring a potential for freezing drizzle. Very low confidence exists that fzdz will be observed but did maintain the inherited prevailing group at DTW. Could very well be manifested as a br/mist. West winds will then breezy in the afternoon and should keep conditions locked in at MVFR before some potential for ceilings to lower with nocturnal cooling Tuesday night. DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES... * Low for ceiling at or below 5000 ft through late tonight. High by Tuesday morning. * High for initial p-type as snow Tuesday morning before transitioning to a light freezing drizzle/mist midday Tuesday. && .PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 359 PM EST Mon Dec 8 2025 DISCUSSION... Main focus of this forecast cycle is an active Tuesday-Wednesday stretch as a series of clippers dive toward the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley. The first of these is set to reach SE Michigan during the Tuesday morning commute, with top-down saturation leading to the onset of light snow between 09-12z (4a-7a). It will be a chilly start to the day, with temperatures in the teens and wind chills in the single digits to ensure freezing p-type through majority of the morning hours. Maximum ascent is displaced to our north as the height fall center tracks across nrn MI, with the southern edge of the height fall gradient clipping the Saginaw Valley/Thumb. Areas further south rely on deep isentropic ascent for snowfall production, which ramps up during the morning as system-relative winds veer ahead of the wave. Main limiting factor with this system (as is often the case with clippers), is limited duration of deep column moisture. Slightly longer residence time of deep saturation is expected in closer proximity to the wave (north of I-69), affording a better opportunity for 1-2" of dry/fluffy snow while areas to the south (e.g. Pontiac/Detroit/Ann Arbor) are held to an inch or less by mid-day Tuesday. Even though overall storm totals do not reach advisory thresholds, timing of peak snowfall rates (5a-9a) will occur during the morning commute and will create variable road conditions and slick spots. The short duration of deep saturation is attributed to the arrival of a mid-level dry slot, which strips away moisture from the DGZ and leaves a shallow ~5.0 kft cloud layer that could generate a few hours of freezing mist/drizzle mid-day. This comes as temperatures are warming and ice nucleation becomes less likely aloft. Precip gradually tapers off through the early afternoon with temperatures climbing into the upper 20s by noon. Warming temperatures afford better mixing of the boundary layer to tap into a ~35-40 knot LLJ, resulting in a breezy afternoon. Southwest gusts of 25-30 mph will be possible to keep wind chills in the teens for most of the day. Immediately behind this wave is another clipper system, although with a more organized circulation in terms of both magnitude and depth. This wave carves toward the Ohio Valley late Tuesday evening, with light snow returning to SE Michigan after about 03z (10p Tue night). With the low tracking along a more southerly path, its warm front is able to pivot into Lower Michigan overnight and gradually raise temperatures into the low-mid 30s by Wednesday morning. Fairly sharp gradient in snow accumulations exists across SE Michigan as a result, with the 32 degree isotherm generally holding right along the M-46 corridor (coincident with the forecast track of the surface low). This low (and the freezing line) however have both trended south in recent forecast cycles. Main implication of this is that forecast temperatures are trending colder, and snow totals are increasing especially across nrn portions of the cwa. The current forecast calls for 4-6" of wet snow north of M-46, with tapering accumulations to below 1" near the Ohio border where temperatures may be aoa freezing at precipitation onset. Pending any dramatic northward shifts in the track, advisories will likely be needed across nrn portions of the cwa. Not entirely out of the question to reach entry level warning criteria either in the far north, especially along/north of the surface low where banded structures will be possible in the focused ascent regions of the frontal zone. This outcome looks more likely over nrn Lower Mi at this time, precluding any watch issuances with this forecast cycle. Snowfall tapers off through the day Wednesday as the system drifts into Ontario and its cold front settles into Lower Michigan. Shift to north-northwest flow looks to activate Lake Huron/Lake Michigan, which may provide a window for Lake Huron bands to impact the shoreline counties Wed night-Thu morning. As usual, this will be highly sensitive to wind direction. High pressure briefly fills in Friday, but the wave train remains active with signs for additional snow and cold lingering into the weekend. MARINE... Light and variable winds around this afternoon as high pressure remains over the area. However, a quick ramp up in south-southwest winds this evening and tonight as low pressure tracks through Lake Superior, dragging a warm front through the Central Great Lakes. Wind gusts look to reach at least 30 knots across all marine waters, with brief gales even possible in the 12-15z Tuesday time frame. Small craft advisories will be issued with this forecast package, and will be carried right through Wednesday as well. A larger and stronger low pressure system is then on track to move through Lower Michigan Tuesday night into Wednesday producing widespread snow and even rain over Lake St. Clair and Lake Erie. The southwest low level jet ahead of the looks to be very strong, and low level profiles may not warm quick enough to stabilize the near water surface. Thus, it is looking like a short period of gales will occur over western Lake Erie, with even brief isolated gusts to gales over Lake St. Clair. On the flip side, with the water temp near freezing and a downward trend in model wind speeds at the surface, elected to hold on off on gale watch. As usual with offshore flow nearing gales, there will be heighten concern for low water conditions across the western basin of Lake Erie. Rush of cold air behind the passage of the low will then support strong northwest winds Wednesday afternoon and early Wednesday evening. Isolated, brief gusts to gales remain likely, but the cold advection is exhausted quickly and the pressure gradient relaxes by Thursday morning. With the short duration and the marginal nature of the gales, elected not to issue gale watch and just have the small craft advisories carry right into Wednesday night. The cold airmass (850 MB temps in the negative lower teens/around -10 C) looks to persist to close our the work week, supporting moderate winds and scattered snow showers. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. Lake Huron...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Tuesday to 4 AM EST Thursday for LHZ421-422-441>443. Lake St Clair...Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM Tuesday to 4 AM EST Thursday for LCZ460. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM Tuesday to 4 AM EST Thursday for LEZ444. && $$ AVIATION.....CB DISCUSSION...MV MARINE.......SF You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit. ####018004003#### FXUS64 KBRO 090447 AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Brownsville TX 1047 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1030 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025 - Sunny skies and gradually warmer temperatures are forecast through the remainder of the work week. High temperatures likely return to the low 80s by Wednesday. - A cold front looks to arrive over the weekend, increasing rain chances to 20-30% Friday night through Sunday, and cooler temperatures possible Sunday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1030 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025 Mostly sunny skies look to continue for the remainder of the work week. Winds will likely shift southerly Tuesday afternoon, allowing for a gradual warming trend through the remainder of the week. High temperatures will likely rise from the 70s on Tuesday into the 80s for the remainder of the week. Likewise, low temperatures are forecast to rise from the 40s tonight into the 60s by the weekend. A weak cold front looks to approach the region Wednesday night, likely stalling as it moves through the CWA before rapidly retreating back to the north on Thursday. This front won’t likely have much impact on rain chances or cloud cover, and the impacts on temperatures will likely be minimal. Locations to the north of the front may see high temperatures a couple degrees cooler than locations south of the boundary Thursday afternoon. These high temperatures will likely range from the upper 70s to low 80s. A stronger front looks to move through the area over the weekend, bringing increased cloud cover and rain chances beginning Friday night and cooler temperatures early next week. Rain chances look to increase to around 20-30% Friday night through Sunday. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1030 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025 Predominately VFR conditions are forecast to continue through the TAF period, thous some fog development is possible early Tuesday morning. Light and variable winds overnight will likely shift southeasterly by Tuesday afternoon, remaining light through the period. Skies are forecast to remain clear to mostly clear through the period. The combination of light winds and clear skies tonight will likely support efficient radiative cooling. This could present a low chance for fog development shortly before sunrise. However, most model guidance is keeping the dewpoint depression around 3-4 degrees, with visibility generally above 6 miles. Given the uncertainty, TAFs at BRO and MFE will remain VFR for the time being, with MVFR visibility at HRL shortly before sunrise. && .MARINE... Issued at 1030 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025 Generally favorable marine conditions are forecast to continue through the period. Light northerly winds will continue tonight before shifting to the southeast Tuesday afternoon. Light to moderate southeasterly winds will then likely continue into the weekend. Seas will continue to subside tonight, with 2-3 foot seas likely Tuesday. Slight seas look to then continue into the weekend. Another cold front looks to move through the area over the weekend, likely bringing light to moderate northerly winds and moderate seas. Rain chances also look to increase to around 20-40% this weekend. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 67 50 74 58 / 0 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 67 45 74 52 / 0 0 0 0 MCALLEN 70 48 75 56 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 71 42 74 52 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 65 60 69 64 / 0 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 66 51 72 57 / 0 0 0 0 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...60-BE LONG TERM....60-BE AVIATION...60-BE ####018003263#### FXUS64 KMAF 090447 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 1047 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1046 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025 - Above-normal temperatures are expected into next week, despite weak cold fronts moving through the region. - No precipitation will occur throughout West Texas and Southeast New Mexico. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Tuesday night) Issued at 245 AM CST Mon Dec 8 2025 Little change to the short term forecast as the overall pattern remains about the same. Dry, northwesterly flow continues and becomes a bit more zonal (west to east) by tomorrow. For tonight, clear skies and light winds allow temperatures to efficiently cool to near normal with most locations in the 30s to low 40s. A few of the coldest spots will once again dip into the upper 20s. Tomorrow sees that more westerly flow translate into an above normal day for December with highs reaching into the upper 60s to low 70s for most. Warmer lows are expected Tuesday night with much of the region only falling into the 40s. Precipitation is not expected in the short term. -Stickney && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Sunday) Issued at 245 AM CST Mon Dec 8 2025 Wednesday, upper level ridging will dominate the west coast, while the eastern CONUS will be under a trough, leaving West Texas and Southeast New Mexico under dry, northwest flow aloft. Unfortunately, a cold front is forecast to be intruding upon the area, shaving ~ 3- 4 F off Tuesday highs. Even so, highs will remain 5-7 F above climatology. This cooling will be ephemeral, however, as surface winds veer back to return flow in time for a noticeable recovery Thursday, which should be the warmest day this forecast as highs plateau and average of almost 15 F above normal. The rest of the forecast is rather prosaic, as weak upper ridging builds in over the weekend. This will result in slightly cooler temperatures than Thursday, but still ~ 5-10 F above where they should be for this time of year. Unfortunately, this pattern is drier than a moth sandwich, and precipitation in the extended remains elusive. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1046 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025 VFR conditions and light winds will continue this TAF period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 34 70 41 64 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 34 72 42 67 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 37 72 44 75 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 39 75 47 68 / 0 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 37 61 41 59 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 32 69 42 64 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 29 66 34 67 / 0 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 36 69 43 65 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 36 68 43 64 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 31 71 38 66 / 0 0 0 0 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...93 LONG TERM....99 AVIATION...10 ####018011583#### FXUS63 KBIS 090448 AFDBIS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 1048 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Freezing rain will impact most of western and central North Dakota late tonight and Tuesday morning, with ice accumulations as high as one tenth of an inch. - Very strong winds expected late Tuesday morning through Tuesday night, with gusts as high as 65 mph. - 1 to 4 inches of snow are expected in the Turtle Mountains area Tuesday morning through Tuesday night. - Another round of snow will impact all of western and central North Dakota Wednesday afternoon through Thursday night. - Below average temperatures are expected Wednesday through the upcoming weekend, with dangerous wind chills possible Thursday evening through Saturday morning. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1047 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025 Quick update to add patchy to areas of fog to the forecast over central ND through about 10 UTC based on observed trends which have fog developing on the edge of a stratus deck. This is no doubt aided by boundary layer moisture enhancement resulting from above-freezing temperatures over the snowpack today, and from the relatively sharp low-level inversion that's in place. UPDATE Issued at 1005 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025 Given the consensus of recent CAMs and other incoming 00 UTC model suites, we delayed the start time of the Winter Weather Advisory in western ND slightly until 1 am CST, and longer in central ND until 4 am CST. This was done in order to convey that impacts will not begin until later in the night, but we need to emphasize that once precipitation begins to develop, guidance suggests it will do so quickly, with increasing impacts quickly to follow. Forecast soundings suggest top-down saturation will only take 1-2 hours once low- and midlevel ascent arrives in any given location, and thermal profiles continue to display the requisite configuration for freezing rain with a warm nose aloft on the order of +3 to + 6 C atop a shallow, subfreezing surface layer. The 00z KABR RAOB reflected this thermal profile already, too. Note that surface temperatures are still expected to also warm above freezing from west to east Tuesday morning, but there is apt to be a lag between when surface temperatures exceed 32 F and when ground conditions warm above that threshold. We held off adding any of the remainder of far southwest ND to the Winter Weather Advisory with this update, since recent guidance suggests the greatest precipitation will be east of that area, but trends will be monitored closely in case a short-fuse expansion is needed. Otherwise, we updated hourly forecast fields with this update based on recent rapid- refresh model guidance. The overall forecast theme underwent only minor changes in timing, but we did increase precipitation chances into the 80-100 percent range over more of the area Tuesday morning. UPDATE Issued at 635 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025 Little change is needed to the forecast, and there were no changes to the Winter Weather Advisory and High Wind Warning with this update. As of early evening, a weak surface low is near Devils Lake and moving southeast out of the area. The midlevel air mass west and southwest of that system is very warm, with the 18z KBIS RAOB having already sampled a warm nose aloft that was around +3 C in the 900 to 850 mb layer. That will set the stage for freezing rain late tonight and Tuesday morning as forcing for ascent increases as a low- and midlevel warm front tied to a rapidly-deepening surface low in southern Canada and an associated intense jet streak aloft move across western and central ND. The 18 UTC global model guidance and recent rapid- refresh guidance remains in agreement on this scenario, so no changes were needed to our messaging at this time. We will need to carefully consider whether the rest of southwestern ND not already in a Winter Weather Advisory will need one for freezing rain for a few hours late tonight and Tuesday morning, but that area will be closest to the surface freezing line when precipitation develops. Otherwise, the incipient surface low with the upcoming system is in west central Alberta as of this writing, with water vapor imagery suggesting the intensifying upper-level jet streak that will foster its rapid strengthening the next 12 hours beginning to spread east across the Rockies. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 315 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025 Currently northwest flow is over the Northern Plains. At the surface a warm front has moved east through North Dakota. Colder air sits in southern Canada awaiting to be pulled into the state by the backside of the low pressure system moving in tonight. Across western ND temperatures are above freezing post warm front, with breezy west winds. An Atmospheric River from the Pacific Ocean is flowing over the Northern Rockies creating a large high cloud shield over Montana and North Dakota. The Storm: Tonight an Alberta Clipper will start to move into the Northern Plains, tapping into that Pacific Ocean moisture. With the current northwest flow, there is warm air aloft ahead of the low across eastern Montana and North Dakota. This will create a swath of freezing rain as surface temperatures will be below freezing, moving west to east early Tuesday morning through about noon CST. A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for this threat across most of western and central ND. We left the far southwest out because most of the precip will be farther north and east. If you are traveling to work in the morning be sure to check the road conditions. As the low moves through ND, and surface temperatures warm above freezing, it will switch to rain and the Winter Weather Advisory will expire at noon CST. The Turtle Mountains will be cooler and remain in the cold sector of the low, so mainly snow is expected. Current forecast totals are 1-4 inches with locally heavier amounts as you get closer to Canada and farther east into Towner County. The Winter Weather Advisory will remain there all day. QPF amounts are anywhere from 0.10 to 0.20 for the west and central. Closer to the northeast and east (the bullseye of the system) the amounts increase to 0.30 inches. A lot more snow will fall in the eastern part of the state where the cold sector and very strong frontogenesis with high lapse rates are located. Northeast ND will also be the left exit region of the jet stream, enhancing the lift and strength of the system. All that to say, snow amounts will be limited in our CWA by the length of time in the warm sector and lack of forcing. There will be a lull in precip in the afternoon before the wrap around moisture moves in from the north in the evening. This wrap around will mainly be snow, especially after sunset and through the overnight. Snow accumulations from Tuesday night will likely be below 1 inch and be limited to the Highway 52 corridor. For the winds, the pressure gradient will tighten in the late morning and combine forces with cold air advection (CAA) on the backside of the low. A strong pressure bubble will also be with the CAA, creating winds up to 65mph, possibly 70mph at times. We have a High Wind Warning out that will replace the Winter Weather Advisory at noon CST. The far southwest's Warning will start a tad earlier at 8am MST. The strong winds will reside Tuesday night, but breezy winds will continue through Wednesday morning. Blowing snow is also a concern but may be limited if the freezing rain puts a crust on the snow or if the rain soaks the snow enough to be too wet to be lofted. Likely either way there will be plenty of drifting snow across the roads Tuesday afternoon through the overnight. Rest of the week: Wednesday a Northern Rockies low will form and move through the state, bringing the next round of snow. Models continue showing strong frontogenesis setting up in a northwest to southeast diagonal across ND with jet stream support. Calibrated NBM probabilities for 1 inch of snow range from 20 to 50 percent. The higher chances are in the southwest where the frontogenesis may linger longer. Winds will not be as strong as Tuesday, only around 20mph. High temperatures will also be much cooler in the single digits in the northeast to the low 30s in the southwest (no snow pack). This snow system will linger into Friday. Northwest flow will then continue through the weekend, with very cold Arctic air dropping into the state. Lows starting Friday morning will be in the negatives statewide. Expect lows around 15 below in the north and 5 below in the south. This will make wind chill values of -25 to -40 across the state. This will need a Cold Weather product later this week. Saturday morning will be similar and Sunday morning will be slightly warmer but will still have wind chills around -20. In the northwest flow through the weekend, small waves will form off the Rocky Mountains, bringing low to medium (20-40%) chances of snow to North Dakota. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1005 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025 High-impact weather for aviation interests is expected across western and central ND during the 00 UTC TAF cycle and beyond. Initially, an area of IFR to MVFR ceilings in north central and east central ND will impact the KJMS terminal until late tonight. However, the main impacts from the upcoming Alberta Clipper passage will begin in western ND in the 07-10 UTC time frame when rain and freezing rain is expected to develop. Freezing rain is forecast to move into central ND in the 10 to 13 UTC time frame. Expect a few hours of freezing rain at most if not all terminals in western and central ND late tonight and Tuesday morning, before temperatures rise above freezing, turning precipitation to rain. MVFR to IFR ceilings will also occur late tonight and Tuesday. Precipitation will generally diminish from west to east during the day Tuesday. Low-level wind shear will develop late tonight and Tuesday as well, with westerly winds of 45 to 55 kt as low as 1500 AGL. Strong westerly surface winds will also develop from Tuesday morning into the early afternoon, before increasing further and turning more northwest, with peak gusts to around 50 kt Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday evening. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST /11 AM MST/ Tuesday for NDZ001-002-009-010-017-018-033-041-044. High Wind Warning from noon CST /11 AM MST/ to 9 PM CST /8 PM MST/ Tuesday for NDZ001>003-009>012-017>021. Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM CST /3 AM MST/ to noon CST /11 AM MST/ Tuesday for NDZ003-011-012-019>023-025-034>037-042- 045>048-050-051. Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM Tuesday to midnight CST Tuesday night for NDZ004-005-013. High Wind Warning from noon CST /11 AM MST/ Tuesday to 3 AM CST /2 AM MST/ Wednesday for NDZ022-023-025-033>037-041-042- 044>048-050-051. High Wind Warning from 8 AM to 8 PM MST Tuesday for NDZ031-032- 040-043. && $$ UPDATE...CJS DISCUSSION...Smith AVIATION...CJS ####018007486#### FXUS63 KFSD 090448 AFDFSD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD 1048 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Confidence remains high in strong winds impacting the area for Tuesday through Wednesday morning. A Winter Storm Watch for Blizzard conditions has been issued for the vast majority of the area. A High Wind Warning has been issued for Gregory, Charles Mix, and Brule counties. Winds up to 50 to 60 mph is expected in both headlines. Blowing snow will be the main impact where visibilities down to a quarter of a mile is possible. - Chances for snow will persist throughout the week and into the weekend. At this time, snowfall amounts look to be light with each chance. - Much colder temperatures are expected from the middle of the week through the weekend. Cold Weather headlines may be needed. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 318 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025 Low level stratus and fog persists across the area this afternoon. The fog is being driven by weak southerly moisture advection, keeping the boundary layer saturated. The stratus and fog have begun to nudge eastwards as low level winds begin to take on a more westerly component thanks to an advancing warm front. Thus, have left the Dense Fog Advisory in effect through 10 pm for locations along and east of I-29. Trends will be monitored through the rest of today to see if any further reductions are needed in the Advisories extent. Tonight will be quiet with low temperatures falling to the 20s to up to about 30F. Things begin to change on Tuesday as a strong upper level shortwave trough pushes through the Northern Plains. This will bring a round of precipitation to the area beginning Tuesday morning. Precipitation looks to begin as light freezing rain before transitioning to plain rain as temperatures warm through the morning hours, thanks to persistent warm air advection (WAA) aloft. A few places might see a light glaze of ice for a brief period of time during the morning and early afternoon hours before plain rain melts away the ice. The afternoon will still see some cooler temperatures across the area thanks to persistent cloud cover and current snowpack across the majority of the area. Have highs only warming to the mid 30s east of the James River up to the 40s and 50s west of the River. The bulk of the rain will push east of the area by the late afternoon hours. The other component to Tuesday will be strengthening winds during the afternoon hours as a strong cold front will pushes through the area. A strong shot of cold air advection (CAA) is expected with the passing front, resulting in very strong winds across the entire area. The strongest winds will come during the evening and overnight hours where gusts up to 50 to 60 mph is likely (>=70% chance). These strong winds will be capable of blowing the current snow pack around which can result in blowing snow across most of the area. The main uncertainty regarding the extent of the blowing snow is due to the previously mentioned rain and temperatures warming above freezing. The rain and warmer temperatures will likely melt some of the snow pack. Even with the quickly falling temperatures behind the front, questions remain how blowable the snowpack will be. As such, have issued a Winter Storm Watch for Blizzard Conditions from noon on Tuesday through noon Wednesday. A High Wind Warning has been issued for Gregory, Charles Mix, and Brule counties due to these counties having a much lower snowpack to non existent snowpack. The High Wind Warning is in effect from noon Tuesday through 3 am Wednesday. Winds will be weakening during the morning hours on Wednesday as high pressure slides through the Northern Plains. Tuesday will be the last "warm" day across the area before a much colder airmass settles into place for the rest of the week. Highs will be below average in the 20s to down to the teens and single digits come Friday through the weekend. With such cold temperatures in place along with light winds in place, Cold Weather headlines may be needed. Highs may trend back towards seasonable come early next week. For precipitation chances, there looks to be persistent chances for snow throughout the week. Currently, the highest chances (30-40%) for snow looks to come on Thursday. Though additional chances will persist through the weekend. Given how these are all clipper systems, light snowfall is most probable with each passing clipper at this time. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1047 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025 VFR ceilings will begin this period, but last only a short while as the next storm system moves in this morning. By mid-to-late morning we'll begin to see ceilings decrease to MVFR and lower along Highway 14. Lower ceilings will progress south with the system. After sunrise a storm system will move into the area from the northwest. Areas along and north of Highway 14 will likely see a wintry mix including freezing rain/drizzle. Ice accumulations are expected to remain low, a light glaze to a hundredth of an inch. As the storm drifts southeast through the late morning, precipitation will transition over to light rain and expand in geographic coverage. Rain slowly tapers off from west to east in the early evening. Rain will linger over southwest Minnesota and northwest Iowa this evening, eventually transitioning back to snow. This will then taper off after midnight. Light and variable winds overnight will begin to increase after sunrise Tuesday morning. Winds will then become westerly, then northwesterly behind a strong cold front (associated with the previously mentioned storm) that passes through the region beginning in the late morning. Winds will increase drastically over a short period of time. Widespread gusts of 25-40 kts are expected by 09.21Z. Winds continue to increase and by 10.00Z gusts of 40-45 kts will be common region wide with a few 50+ kt gusts possible. Gusts of this magnitude are expected to continue through the end of the period. Some reductions in visibility due to blowing and drifting snow are likely. In addition, LLWS is expected at all three TAF sites beginning after noon. Speed shear up to 50 to 55 kts are expected and will continue past the end of the period. && .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...Winter Storm Watch from Tuesday evening through Wednesday morning for SDZ067-070-071. Winter Storm Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday morning for SDZ038>040-052>056-058>062-064>066-068-069. High Wind Warning from noon Tuesday to 3 AM CST Wednesday for SDZ050-057-063. MN...Winter Storm Watch from Tuesday evening through Wednesday morning for MNZ080-081-089-090-098. Winter Storm Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday morning for MNZ071-072-097. IA...Winter Storm Watch from Tuesday evening through Wednesday morning for IAZ001>003-012>014-020>022-031-032. NE...Winter Storm Watch from Tuesday evening through Wednesday morning for NEZ013-014. && $$ DISCUSSION...Meyers AVIATION...AJP