####018005623#### FXUS62 KTAE 170056 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 856 PM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 853 PM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026 - Long-duration hazardous heat wave continues this week. Very warm nighttime temperatures offer little relief. Please exercise heat safety: www.weather.gov/safety/heat. - Daily chances for thunderstorms remain in the forecast. Strong gusty winds, frequent lightning and locally heavy rainfall are the main threats. - Somewhat of a break in the heat wave appears to occur some time late in the week or weekend, which will likely be accompanied by an increase in convectively active weather. && .UPDATE... Issued at 853 PM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026 Ongoing single cell convection from Leesburg to Tifton will die off any time now. With that expectation, no forecast updates are needed this evening. && .SHORT TERM & LONG TERM... (This Evening through next Saturday) Issued at 320 PM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026 Ridging overhead that has been responsible for the abnormally hot and extreme heat conditions will strengthen slightly on Monday, leading to an extreme heat warning being issued for portions of the FL Panhandle and western Big Bend. This ridging will generally remain in place through at least midweek, allowing high temperatures to soar into the mid to upper 90s across the area each afternoon. Towards the tail end of the week and into the weekend, this ridge is finally forecast to begin to weaken and shift as a front tries to approach the area from the north/northwest. Even still, temperatures are expected to remain in the 90s. As this dangerous heat wave continues across the area, please limit time outdoors and take precautions against heat illness. This heat is even more dangerous for sensitive groups such as the very young or elderly. Never leave children or pets in hot cars even with the windows cracked. Abnormally warm overnight lows will inhibit the ability to adequately cool off overnight and compound the daytime heat impacts. Daily showers and storms are forecast to develop despite the ridging overhead. Some of these storms may be strong to severe at times, with gusty winds, lightning, and locally heavy rainfall the primary threats. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 853 PM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026 A seasonably moist and unstable air mass will continue through Monday and beyond, supporting development of isolated to scattered air mass thunderstorms on Monday afternoon. Confidence is highest for seabreeze-prone terminals (ECP and TLH). Confidence is lowest further inland at ABY. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail. If skies clear out overnight, then an hour or two of BR is possible at VLD, though this is not yet indicated in the TAF. && .MARINE... Issued at 320 PM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026 Persistent high pressure maintains favorable boating conditions the next several days outside of thunderstorms and morning fair- weather waterspouts. Light to moderate west breezes are forecast through the week with daily afternoon seabreezes along the immediate nearshore legs. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 320 PM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026 The main fire concerns are hazardous heat conditions persisting at least into the first half of this week, daily chances for afternoon thunderstorms, and potentially high dispersions for parts of SW GA & SE AL on both Monday and Tuesday afternoon. High temperatures well into the 90s will be common with heat indices of 108 to 115+ degrees. Thunderstorms will be capable of frequent lightning, gusty/erratic winds, and locally wetting rains are additional threats. Prevailing west winds are forecast outside of daily afternoon seabreezes. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 231 AM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026 Thunderstorms will be capable of producing localized nuisance flooding in urban, poor-drainage, and low-lying areas. Otherwise, there are no significant hydrological concerns the next several days. All area rivers are currently running well below action stage. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 77 96 78 97 / 10 30 10 40 Panama City 81 93 81 94 / 0 20 10 20 Dothan 77 97 77 97 / 0 20 10 30 Albany 77 98 78 98 / 10 20 10 20 Valdosta 76 97 78 98 / 10 20 10 20 Cross City 77 94 78 95 / 10 40 20 50 Apalachicola 80 93 81 93 / 10 30 20 40 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Heat Advisory from 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ to 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ Monday for FLZ007>011-018-019-028-029-034-128-134. Extreme Heat Warning from 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ to 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ Monday for FLZ012>017-027-108-112-114-115-118-127- 326-426. GA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Monday for GAZ120>131- 142>148-155>161. AL...Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Monday for ALZ065>069. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Merrifield LONG TERM....Merrifield AVIATION...Haner MARINE...Merrifield FIRE WEATHER...Merrifield HYDROLOGY...IG3