####018004964#### FXUS64 KOUN 090452 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 1052 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1042 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025 - Cooler today before unseasonably warm temperatures Tuesday through much of the upcoming week. - No chance for precipitation through at least Friday. && .NEAR TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 1142 AM CST Mon Dec 8 2025 After a cold, cloudy and locally foggy start, seasonable early- December weather is expected this afternoon. A stagnant area of stratus across the eastern two-thirds of Oklahoma is quickly eroding late this morning. Afternoon and early evening temperatures will be strongly moderated by the longevity of cloud cover, with mid to upper-50s west and southwest giving way to upper-40s across central and eastern Oklahoma. Not quite as cold overnight tonight, with slightly stronger southwesterly surface winds and potential for passing areas of mid/high clouds. Patchy fog will again be possible towards daybreak Tuesday across portions of western Oklahoma. Ungar && .SHORT TERM... (Tuesday through Wednesday night) Issued at 1142 AM CST Mon Dec 8 2025 Persistent northwesterly upper flow remains over the central CONUS into the midweek, with a strong embedded system moving across the Dakotas on Tuesday. Increasing southwesterly surface winds (owing to a more pronounced surface pressure gradient), advection of a warmer low-level airmass and mostly clear skies will allow for a warmer day areawide on Tuesday. A few locations across far western Oklahoma and western-north Texas will approach 70 degrees by the mid-afternoon. The aforementioned northern stream system will push a trailing surface front across the area from Tuesday evening into Wednesday morning. Given the trajectory of the parent system (well to our north & east), the pocket of coldest post-frontal air will angle towards the Ohio Valley. Therefore, greatest sensible impact with this feature looks to be a southwest-to-north/northeasterly wind shift on Wednesday morning, with potential for a few morning time gusts up to 25-30 mph. Afternoon conditions will likely run a few degrees cooler than Tuesday, though look to remain at or slightly above normal for December 10th. Ungar && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Sunday) Issued at 1238 AM CST Mon Dec 8 2025 Heading into the latter half of the week and into the weekend, the pattern aloft continues to feature northwesterly flow aloft with a strong jet digging into the Plains. There is decent confidence of this cold front at the end of the week bringing cold air by the weekend. However, the latest ensemble guidance indicates delay in the timing of the coldest airmass. Grand ensemble temperature spreads of the 25th vs 75th percentiles (upper quartile and lower quartile) have narrowed with the most recent 12/8 00z model run and generally have the coldest air not pushing into Oklahoma until Saturday and nearly 5 degree spreads both Friday and Saturday (lower to mid 50s and upper 30s to lower 40s, respectively). Cluster analysis reveals nearly 80 percent of the models agree with this delayed solution of the colder air, while 20 percent of the members continues to dig cold air into the forecast area by Friday. The extended forecast continues to remain dry with no precipitation chances with these fronts. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1042 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025 All terminals are most likely to remain in a VFR category through most the entire forecast. However, there remains a low chance for radiational fog developing between 11-15Z which could impact all terminals except for KWWR & KSWO. Visibilities may slightly reduce in the patchy fog bringing some of our terminals to an MVFR category during that period. Confidence is very low but not completely out that the fog could become more dense reducing visibilities further in that time period. Surface winds will increase out of the south after 18Z around 10 kts with gusts up to 20 kts by 21Z. Surface winds will gradually veer more south- southwesterly after 01Z as a cold front will be near northwest Oklahoma by the end of this forecast period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 33 62 41 56 / 0 0 0 0 Hobart OK 29 64 36 59 / 0 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 33 68 39 63 / 0 0 0 0 Gage OK 29 68 37 57 / 0 0 0 0 Ponca City OK 29 62 40 56 / 0 0 0 0 Durant OK 33 63 42 63 / 0 0 0 0 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. TX...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...09 SHORT TERM...09 LONG TERM....23 AVIATION...68 ####018003680#### FXUS64 KAMA 090453 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 1053 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025 ...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1032 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025 No impactful weather is currently expected within the next seven days. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Wednesday night) Issued at 1032 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025 Water vapor satellite imagery shows a ridge just off the West Coast and some shortwave troughs moving across portions of the Central and Eastern US, including one that just moved past the Panhandles. One of the previously mentioned shortwaves will produce a fairly robust surface low, around 990mb, which will track through the Midwest. Although the system itself will be far away from the Panhandles, its impacts will be felt; it will draw in some anomalously warm 850mb temps, between the 75th and 90th percentile, and cause downsloping southwesterly winds across the Panhandles. These factors, along with a sunny sky, will help temperatures warm into the upper-60s to around 70 degrees across our area. Winds will actually be tame especially for our standards, around 10-15 mph, which will make for an incredibly pleasant December day. A cold front will move in Tuesday night and some post-frontal breezy winds can be expected for several hours. The relatively cooler airmass will settle in on Wednesday but temperatures will remain warmer than normal. Vanden Bosch && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through next Monday) Issued at 1032 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025 Fairly strong northwesterly flow aloft is forecast to set up over the Rockies on Thursday, and a subtle perturbation in the flow will develop a lee surface low in SE Wyoming/W Nebraska/NE Colorado which will shift southward/southeastward through the day. A warm airmass will move overhead similar to Tuesday but warmer and closer to the 90th percentile for this part of December. Widespread 70 degree highs can be expected, and there is around a 20-40% chance for highs to reach or exceed 75 degrees in the northwestern combined Panhandles, and a 10-20% chance in the southeastern half. A cold front is expected to move in from the north Thursday night into Friday morning. Operational and ensemble model guidance is still largely split into two camps regarding the timing of the cold front, with the GFS/GEFS camp bringing the front in earlier while the ECMWF/EPS and Canadian/GEPS brings the front in later. However, over the past 24 hours the GFS/GEFS has been trending toward the front arriving later Thursday night. Some breezy winds will once again be possible behind the front through at least Friday morning if not early Friday afternoon. The colder airmass will settle in to the Panhandles through the weekend, but it looks as though the eastern Panhandles will be cooler than normal while the western Panhandles could see temperatures be around normal to warmer than normal. Still, the prospects for rain remain extremely pitiful. Vanden Bosch && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1032 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025 VFR conditions expected through the next 24 hours. Winds will be variable tonight and around 5-10 kts through the day Tuesday. A cold front will move in Tuesday evening, and low-level wind shear may be experienced at least at KDHT. Vanden Bosch && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...52 LONG TERM....52 AVIATION...52 ####018008109#### FXUS63 KJKL 090454 AAB AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson KY 1154 PM EST Mon Dec 8 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Mainly dry weather is expected through Tuesday night. - Some slick or icy spots may develop tonight on untreated roads, bridges, and overpasses. - Gusty southwesterly winds between 30 and 40 mph are likely on Wednesday. - The pattern remains active through the end of the work week, although confidence remains low in each passing system's precipitation type forecast. - A much colder airmass is forecast to move into the region for the weekend, with widespread low temperatures in the teens likely. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1140 PM EST MON DEC 8 2025 Hourly grids were adjusted for the clearing and scattering out of clouds in the north though clouds remain generally south of the Mountain Parkway with some low clouds also persisting into Estill, Powell, and Montgomery counties. The low level winds aloft are forecast to become more easterly and then south to southwest overnight where the low level moisture/clouds are present and this should result in limited clearing/scattering for the remainder of the night. Guidance suggests with the south to southwest flow that the low clouds should tend to spread back to the north and northeast later tonight. Overall, the lowest min T should be in the north where some places will have min T in the teens (some KY Mesonet stations in typical cold spots are already there. UPDATE Issued at 740 PM EST MON DEC 8 2025 Low clouds linger across the area though cloud heights have increased form the north. Thus far this has limited the drop in temperatures and the degree of clearing will determine how much of the northern sections of the area, mainly valleys, could reach the upper teens. A few flurries may still linger in the southeast, but the main concern is as temperatures drop following the snowfall from earlier today for some freezing or refreezing. This would be mostly a concern on untreated surfaces, secondary and tertiary roadways, bridges, and overpasses. KYTC in Pike County has reported some slick or icy spots had developed on a couple of US 119 overpasses between Pikeville and the Belfry area. With this in as temperatures falling at least well into the 20s, went with an SPS for slick or icy spots for tonight. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night) Issued at 425| PM EST MON DEC 8 2025 Remaining snow is quickly winding down late today as the supporting upper level shortwave trough passes east of our area and surface low pressure transitions eastward well of the southeast coast. Surface high pressure passing to our north is sending drier air southward into northern KY, but the influx will be short-lived as the high slips away to the east. The clearing line has been making very slow progress south with the drier air, reach near the OH/KY border as of late afternoon. Models want to bring the clearing south into the northern part of the JKL forecast area tonight. However, it has been very difficult to erode low stratus in recent weeks. Have backed off on the clearing from what models might suggest. However, confidence in the sky forecast for tonight meager. If clouds are able to break up at least in the northern portion of the area as is currently forecast, this would allow temperatures to drop off well in valleys in light of the fresh snow in our northern counties. Once again, it will be stated that it depends on a questionable sky forecast. A shortwave trough and associated surface low passing well to our north on Tuesday will set up a tightening pressure gradient against the surface high having passed to our east and southeast. This will bring warm air advection on increasing breezes. With increasing low level moisture lagging behind, this should get rid of any remaining low clouds, but high clouds arriving will cut into the amount of sun to be seen. Another shortwave and clipper type system rotating through a mean eastern CONUS trough will be approaching from the northwest on Tuesday night. A still increasing gradient and eventual increase in clouds will make it difficult for most of the area to cool off much on Tuesday night. Aside from nights with low clouds, our eastern valleys almost always find a way to decouple and see temperature drops. Cooler lows have been forecast there, but forecast confidence on valley temps on Tuesday night is also not very high. Clouds will eventually thicken up, and precip in the system's warm air advection regime could be arriving from the northwest around dawn. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 447 PM EST MON DEC 8 2025 Broader troughing, with embedded progressive short wave troughs, will be the story aloft generally east of the Rockies through the rest of the week. The pattern will be more amplified on the front end of the period. While the model agreement is good regarding the long wave pattern, timing of the smaller scale features and sensible weather details continue to be challenging to predict with confidence. As such, have stuck closer to the blended guidance for precipitation chances. Did make some minor temperature adjustments for a few periods, mainly to incorporate ridge/valley temperature differences, as well as to play up more diurnally-limited temperature regimes, where confidence was a bit higher regarding the cloudier and colder spells. We start out in the middle of the week, with gusty southwest winds. The 12z ensemble probabilities have come down just a bit for seeing 40 mph gusts on the GFS compared to the 00z run. As such, have maintained continuity with the previous forecast, sticking with the 90th percentile blended guidance from later in the morning through the early afternoon hours, when wind gusts will peak in the 30 to 40 mph range. Wednesday will likely be the warmest day of the week, with highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Mainly rain will overspread the area from northwest to southeast during the day, as a frontal system traverses southeast from the Ohio Valley into the Tennessee Valley. Some upslope snow will follow Wednesday night into early Thursday, with precipitation chances lingering in the forecast from Thursday night through Friday night, generally favoring locations east of I-75. Will continue to keep precipitation types generalized to rain and/or snow, as temperature profiles remain low confidence. A reinforcement of colder air follows for this weekend, although spread remains large within the ensemble envelope. Overnight lows in the teens look probable for most valleys, especially Sunday night, with the surface high in closer proximity. Highs will retreat to the 30s this weekend, before recovering above 40 by early next week. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening) ISSUED AT 735 PM EST MON DEC 8 2025 Low clouds remained across the region at issuance time with VFR ceilings in the far north and mainly VFR ceilings further south though there were some scattered IFR reports as well for a few ridgetop airport locations. The mainly MVFR will linger for the next few hours with some uncertainty as to how far south improvements to VFR may reach and guidance hints at the MVFR possibly returning north and east for a time late tonight to early on Tuesday. Winds will be light and variable through 12Z and then become southwest and increase to the 5 to 10KT range on average to end the period. Winds aloft will increase late in the period, near sunset and LLWS wind shear may become a threat prior during the last couple hours of the period. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...JP SHORT TERM...HAL LONG TERM...JKL AVIATION...JP