####018008779#### FXUS61 KALY 101423 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 1023 AM EDT Fri May 10 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Showers mainly south and west of the Greater Capital Region this morning with diminish by this afternoon with mostly cloudy and cool conditions continuing. An upper level low will bring some isolated to scattered showers for the weekend with the most widespread coverage late Saturday night through Sunday. Temperatures will run below normal through the weekend into early next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... .UPDATE...Radar indicating most of the spotty showers are to the west of the Hudson Valley, except some in the mid Hudson Valley. Additional isolated to scattered showers should pop up across the northern half of the area with expected breaks of sunshine resulting in limited heating/instability. Most of the CAMs are showing this potential, so PoPs have been increased slightly to mention scattered coverage from around Albany north/west. Areas west of the Hudson Valley are expected to get additional light showers from the inverted surface trough positioned in central NY. Temperatures will be on the cool side, although some areas from Albany north/east could reach the lower 60s given some breaks of sunshine. .PREV DISCUSSION[0700]...A positively tilted mid and upper level trough is setting up over southwest Quebec, southeast Ontario, the eastern Great Lakes Region and the Midwest this morning. Low to mid level southwest flow continues aloft over NY and New England. An inverted sfc trough located north of low pressure moving towards and east of the Delmarva Region will continue to produce some showers mainly south and west of Albany. The coverage has become more scattered from the Capital District/Mohawk Valley west/southwest. High pressure near northern Maine and New Brunswick continues to funnel some low-level dry air toward the region, which is eroding the showers, as they try to lift north and east of the Capital Region. Some low level easterlies are occurring off the western New England higher terrain. We have tried to trim the showers to northing or slight chances from Albany north/northeast. The best forcing and moisture is occurring to the south and west and light pcpn amounts of a few hundredths to a quarter/half inch has occurred in the mid Hudson Valley/southeast Catskills. The highest PoPs in the late morning and afternoon will be for the western Mohawk Valley/eastern Catskills/mid Hudson Valley. The sfc wave will move off into the western Atlantic and the inverted trough will pivot westward with the showers more numerous over central NY and the western portion of the county warning area. Mostly cloudy conditions will prevail, though some breaks of sun may occur north/northeast of Albany. Temps will run below normal by 5 to 7 degrees with highs favored from a MAV/MET blend with upper 50s to lower 60s in the valleys with the warmest readings in the Upper Hudson Valley with upper 40s to mid 50s over the hills and mtns. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Tonight...A lull in the showers is likely except west of the Hudson River Valley/Lake George, where isolated showers may linger. The pause will be due to high pressure trying to build in from the east and the initial trough of low pressure weakening and departing with micro-ridging in between. However, another short-wave disturbance will be digging in from Upper Midwest/Great Lakes Region. Lows will be on the cool side with 40-45F readings in the lower elevations and mid 30s to around 40F over the higher terrain. Saturday is looking like the better half of the weekend right now with weak ridging ahead of the next short-wave re- invigorating the mid and upper level low. Partly to mostly cloudy conditions will prevail and some isolated to scattered showers will begin to work in ahead of the disturbance and an occluded front...especially west of the I-87 corridor. Temps will still run below normal by 5 degrees or slightly more with highs in the 60-65F range in the valleys and 50s over the higher terrain. The highest PoPs were confined to areas mainly west of I-87 corridor. Saturday night into Sunday...the short-range guidance and ensembles continue to show falling heights and an uptick in cyclonic vorticity advection with the short-wave rotating around the mid and upper level trough over NY and New England. Showers will increase overnight into Sunday morning where PoPs are in the high chance and likely range. The showers will become more widespread in the late morning into the early afternoon. Precipitation totals will range from a few hundredths to a few tenths of an inch. The better forcing with the short-wave and the sfc trough pivoting around another weak wave moving across the northern mid Atlantic States will be west/southwest of the Tri Cities. Lows Sat night will be in the 40s with some upper 30s over the higher terrain, while max temps could run close to 10 degrees below normal on Sunday with 50s, though some lower 60s are possible north of Albany in the Upper Hudson River Valley again and some locations in the mtns may remain in the 40s. The mid and upper level trough moves downstream of eastern NY and western New England Sunday with the showers diminishing and ending. It will be partly cloudy to mostly clear in a few locations with high pressure building in from the south and heights briefly rising aloft. Lows will range from the mid 30s (southern Dacks/southern Greens) to lower/mid 40s across the rest of the forecast area. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... The long term period looks to feature seasonable temperatures with repeated chances for rain showers. Southwest flow in place through the first half of the workweek will aid afternoon highs in reaching the upper 50s to mid 60s in high terrain and mid 60s to mid 70s at lower elevations each day, while overnight lows dip to the mid 40s to mid 50s. A warm front will lift across the region Monday afternoon to evening, bringing light rain showers. Later on Tuesday and into Tuesday night, a deep upper low tracking across southern Quebec will likely result in additional rain with possible thunder as a cold front crosses the region. By Wednesday, a weakening upper low moving through the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys could support the development of a coastal low along the aforementioned front, which may be close enough for yet another round of rain, however forecast confidence remains low at these lead times with significant disparities among numerical guidance. Conditions may finally trend drier by Thursday as upper troughing moves over the Canadian Maritimes, potentially allowing upper ridging to build into the region. && .AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Through 12Z Saturday...Ongoing light rain showers will continue to affect primarily POU, but potentially ALB/PSF through this morning. Thus far, vsbys have remained at 5SM or higher within rain showers, so continued VFR vsbys are expected at ALB/POU/PSF although brief MVFR vsbys are possible within heavier shower elements. MVFR cigs look to continue at POU/PSF, with low-VFR anticipated at ALB/GFL. GFL is likely to remain north of the bulk of shower activity, and have excluded any mention of VCSH through the morning. Additional diurnal showers may increase in coverage this afternoon around peak heating, with PROB30 mentions for -SHRA with MVFR vsbys at ALB/GFL. Elsewhere, coverage of afternoon showers is expected to be lower, with very limited impacts to flying conditions. VFR conditions return to all terminals after 00Z Sat. Light northeast to east winds at 5-10 kt are expected through 18Z Fri-00Z Sat, after which winds will turn out of the southeast at 5 kt or less. Outlook... Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA. Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Tuesday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...Chance TSRA. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Wasula NEAR TERM...JPV/Wasula SHORT TERM...Wasula LONG TERM...Picard AVIATION...Picard