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FXUS63 KJKL 121400

AFDJKL



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Jackson KY

1000 AM EDT Fri Jun 12 2026



.KEY MESSAGES...



- A progressive cold front brings showers and numerous

  thunderstorms to the area on Friday, with a risk for strong wind

  gusts and locally heavy rainfall within the strongest storms.



- High pressure briefly ushers in cooler and drier air on

  Saturday, but unsettled weather and widespread rain chances 

  return overnight into Sunday.



- Expect cooler than normal temperatures early next week as broad

  troughing dominates the weather pattern aloft. 



&&



.UPDATE...

Issued at 1000 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2026



Made upwards adjustments to PoPs for the next few hours with a

decaying MCS traversing the area, with highest PoPs expected in

the south where there is greater instability. Other adjustments

were quite minor, such as updating the hourly forecast with the

latest T/Tds. 



UPDATE Issued at 820 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2026



Convection over central KY continues to approach the region with

gusty winds in a few spots from time to time. Winds recently

gusted to 40 mph at KLEX upstream. There remains uncertainty with

the evolution of upstream convection as it moves east into eastern

KY, but recent HRRR runs may have a bit better handle on it. If

that materializes convection would move across the area this 

morning to early afternoon with perhaps some development in the 

evening along the cold front itself. For now, grids were updated 

based on recent observation and radar trends.



&&



.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)

Issued at 430 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2026



Early this morning, a weak shortwave ridge at 500 mb extended

through the southern and Central Appalachians to PA to the

northeast of upper ridging extending from parts of the Southeast

across the Northern Gulf to TX. A shortwave trough meanwhile

extended from the Central Great Lakes to Lower OH Valley region 

and was rotating through a rather broad 500 mb trough that 

extended south into parts of the Central Conus/Northern to Central

Plains. At the surface, an area of low pressure was moving across

northern sections of Ontario with a cold front trailing into the 

Central Great Lakes to Lower OH Valley to Southern Plains. Near 

and in advance of this front, and preceding outflow boundaries, 

convection has into the overnight. Locally an outflow from 

convection that occurred upstream has dropped southeast to near 

the I-64 corridor and resulting in the development of a few 

showers. Additional convection is upstream from near Dayton to 

Cincinnati to west of Frankfort and then west into southern 

sections of IL and IN and western KY. 



The shortwave trough should advance into the eastern Great Lakes

to mid Atlantic states to central Appalachians today. At the same

time, the associated cold front should advance across the Great

lakes to the mid Atlantic states and into VA by late this 

evening. Ahead of the upstream activity early this morning across 

eastern KY, recent mesoanalysis has MUCAPE on the order of 500 to

1000 J/kg with mid level lapse rates of 6 to 6.5C/km and weak low

level lapse rates while effective bulk shear is generally less 

than 20KT. Convection that moves into the area near or prior to 

dawn and for a few hours thereafter and/or develops along the 

remnant outflow will be elevated. More southern and southeastern 

sections of eastern KY will have at least a limited opportunity 

for some heating this morning to early afternoon ahead of the 

front. Convective allowing models generally have the upstream 

activity weakening as it moves into eastern KY this morning and 

vary from run to run and model to model with the degree of midday 

to afternoon or early evening development along or near the front.

MUCAPE per the 06Z RAP may reach the 2000 to 2500 J/kg range by 

early afternoon with 1500 to 2150 J/kg MLCAPE but only 10 to at 

most 20KT of bulk shear. Mid level lapse rates should generally be

6C/km or less while low level lapse rates are forecast in the 6.5

to 8C/km range. Shear will be weak while CAPE will be modest and 

storms could be somewhat pulse type and/or tend to redevelop 

along outflows. Some strong to damaging winds would be possible 

with the strongest storms and some small cannot be ruled out. If 

any locations were to receive multiple rounds of storms or 

training storms, high water or flooding is possible. SPC has a 

marginal to slight risk for severe storms over the southeast for 

today, while WPC has a marginal risk of excessive rainfall across 

the entire area. These threats are mentioned in the HWO and will 

continue to highlighted on social media.



As the weakening shortwave trough moves further east this evening

and the front drops further south of the area and begins to stall,

high pressure is progged to build across the Lower OH 

Valley/Commonwealth while the upper pattern trends to more or less

zonal or a broad trough from the Central conus to the Great Lakes

to OH Valley region. Showers should diminish by late evening with

clouds decreasing overnight with slackening winds. Pending where 

rain falls over the next 18 hours, this will set the stage for at 

least valley fog and it could be more extensive than that. 00Z 

HREF forecast soundings with drier air not far above the surface 

are conducive for the mainly valley fog pattern. This fog could 

become dense in some locations, but did not go with any dense fog 

just yet. 



On Saturday, high pressure will depart to the east at the surface,

while one or more shortwaves or MCS type activity may move into

the OH Valley as the day progresses. Valley fog should lift and or

dissipate through around 9 AM EDT or so and give way to seasonably

warm highs roughly 5 degrees above normal. Some guidance suggests

this activity could near parts of south- central KY/Lake 

Cumberland before sunset on Saturday, though for now Saturday is 

forecast to be dry with any of this activity is forecast to hold 

off until after dark.



.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday)

Issued at 135 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2026



The long term forecast period will be governed by broad troughing 

over the northeastern quadrant of the contiguous United States. As 

an upper level low spins over Ontario and Quebec through much of 

next week, and a series of shortwave troughs will eject around its 

backside and into the Greater Ohio River Valley in this time frame. 

Confidence is high that the first disturbance will approach the 

forecast area from Saturday night into Sunday, giving credence to 

the notion that widespread rain chances will return to the forecast 

area in this time frame. While models are in generally good 

agreement regarding this first disturbance's timing, there is still 

some uncertainty surrounding its amplitude. That limits forecast 

confidence in any potential sensible weather impacts at the current 

moment. Similar themes linger through the rest of the long term 

forecast period. Increasing model spread makes it difficult to 

pinpoint the specific precipitation forecast details during the 

subsequent shortwave passages, but each disturbance looks to 

reinforce the overarching troughing pattern aloft. Such a pattern 

favors cooler than normal temperatures, and this is reflected in the 

temperature forecast for next week.



When the period opens on Saturday evening, all eyes will be on the 

potential for upstream convection. If the more amplified model 

solutions come to fruition, a sharper shortwave trough could provide 

sufficient dynamic support for stronger storms on Saturday night in 

western portions of the commonwealth. Some of the available machine 

learning, analog, and AI-enhanced forecast guidance supports this 

idea, but by the time any activity reaches our forecast area, it 

will be working against the diurnal instability cycle. Rain chances 

do not reach our Lake Cumberland counties until after midnight on 

Sunday morning, and the storms could be moving into a stable 

boundary layer by then. Given the antecedent high pressure in place, 

it is plausible for valley locales to thermally decouple after 

sunset. This would allow efficient radiational cooling to take root, 

and in accordance with local climatological knowledge, modest ridge 

valley splits and patchy valley fog were added to the forecast grids 

for this time frame. Assuming convective cloud debris doesn't 

interrupt these classic diurnal processes, eastern valleys should 

dip down into the upper 50s/lower 60s by midnight. West of I-75, 

temperatures will stay in the mid/upper 60s, as this is where the 

greatest sky cover and the greatest thunderstorm chances are 

forecast. Model soundings resolve only meager amounts of mostly-

elevated CAPE by then though, so storms would likely succumb to a 

weakening trend as they approach I-75. Furthermore, they will likely 

be outrunning the better dynamic support aloft. 



The parent shortwave axis reaches our portion of the Ohio River 

Valley on Sunday afternoon and evening. The European family of 

forecast guidance models continues to resolve a sharper iteration of 

this disturbance than its American counterparts, but both agree in 

an arrival time that overlaps with peak diurnal heating. The 

magnitude of said heating will likely depend on the evolution of the 

overnight/AM activity and how much cloud cover it leaves behind, 

which will then determine the instability parameter spacing for any 

frontally forced PM convection. Mesoscale details like this are hard 

to determine at the current temporal range, but based on the medium-

range convective guidance, the greatest chances for stronger storms 

on Sunday may be in southern and southeastern portions of the 

commonwealth. Thankfully, this system looks progressive, and 

relatively cooler and drier air works its way into the forecast area 

after frontal passage on Sunday night. This will help to reduce the 

risk for hydrological impacts, but we will need to watch the effects 

of today's convective activity on soils in the Cumberland basin 

before we completely write this system off.   



The aforementioned post-frontal CAA will yield pleasant conditions 

in Eastern Kentucky to start the next work week. We will be waking 

up to AM lows in the 50s on Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday mornings 

next week, with afternoon highs in the upper 70s/lower 80s. Mean 

PWATs in the LREF data generally dip to below 1 inch in this time 

frame, so apparent temperatures will be very close to these forecast 

thermometer readings. In other words, it will feel fantastic outside 

for the first half of the work week. A second shortwave could spark 

a stray shower or two in SE KY on Monday, but it will be working 

with less moisture and lower temperatures than its predecessor. Most 

of the area will likely stray dry and enjoy mostly sunny conditions 

early next week, with the next shot at area-wide rain chances 

holding off until a third, better-defined shortwave approaches on 

either Wednesday or Thursday. As discussed in the introductory 

paragraph, there is too much compounding forecast uncertainty to 

highlight sensible weather specifics that far out. In the meantime 

though, readers are encouraged to get outside and enjoy this 

pleasant summertime weather forecast! 



&&



.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)

ISSUED AT 815 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2026



At issuance time, convection was approaching the region from

central KY, though uncertainty remains with the evolution of this

activity this morning. At present VFR was reported. At issuance, 

probabilities appeared greater for convection to reach KSYM and 

KIOB between 12Z and 15Z as upstream activity arrives. This

activity has developed a bit further south since issuance and

KLOZ and KSME and possibly KJKL may also be affected during the

first 3 hours of the period. Additional activity may occur between

18Z and 00Z and PROB30s were included for convection for a few

hours at all sites during that timeframe. Chances may linger

beyond 00Z for the 4 more southern/southeastern TAF locations 

based on trends since issuance. Otherwise, any thunderstorm that 

develops at or near a TAF site should bring brief reductions to 

MVFR or IFR or not briefly lower; as well as, gusty and erratic 

outflow winds. Southwesterly to west winds should increase to near

10KT through 18Z. Winds will trend northwesterly between 18Z and 

00Z and then gradually weaken to light and variable to end the 

period. As high pressure builds in and winds slacken late in the 

period, fog should affect valley locations by 04Z and after and 

some or all of the TAF sites could also experience fog lifting 

into them mainly from 06Z onward.



&&



.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

None.



&&



$$



UPDATE...CMC

SHORT TERM...JP

LONG TERM...MARCUS

AVIATION...JP