####018006005#### FXUS61 KBGM 062243 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 643 PM EDT Mon May 6 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure builds into the region tonight, bringing beautiful weather conditions through Tuesday evening. An active weather pattern returns Tuesday night through the weekend, with chances for precipitation every day. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... 640 PM Update... No significant changes to the forecast with this update. The high level clouds are still progged to clear from NW to SE after midnight and into the early predawn hours Tuesday. This will allow for good radiational cooling and perhaps some patchy fog along the immediate river valleys. Overnight lows were lowered a touch in the normally colder locations...with Cortland, Norwich and Morrisville area possibly reaching the upper 30s by daybreak. Tuesday still looks like a phenomenal May day; with ample sunshine all day and highs well into the 70s with low humidity and light winds. A few valley locations could reach the lower 80s with the full sunshine expected to boost temperatures here...especially Chemung Valley, Binghamton metro area and Wyoming valley region. 330 PM Update... Low clouds have cleared out of the area, with high level cirrus and some fair weather cumulus clouds popping up south of the Finger Lakes. A few isolated showers will be possible over the Wyoming Valley and Poconos this afternoon. Temperatures have climbed into the mid 60s to low 70s, which is what was expected. Tonight, a surface high moving into the region tonight will bring clear skies, calm winds and dry conditions to the region. Radiational cooling will develop, dropping temperatures into the low to mid 40s across the region. Models are showing very dry dewpoints sinking in from the north, with values in the mid to upper 30s. None of the ensembles were showing temperatures dropping below 40 so frost chances in the Finger Lakes growing zones is very low. We will monitor this as the afternoon and evening progresses. Some valley fog will be possible tonight with radiational cooling and clear skies. The dry surface air should limit this, but with leaves sprouting on the trees and evapotranspiration occurring, fog cannot be ruled out. Tuesday will be a wonderful spring day, with high pressure overhead and temperatures in the 70s across the region. Sunny skies will persist into the afternoon hours before clouds move overhead from the SW ahead of an approaching warm front. NW flow from the high shifts to SW during the evening hours as a warm front approaches from the SW. Showers along this front will have to battle dry air in place from the high, limiting rainfall chances before midnight. After midnight, the center of the low moves into the region and rain showers span the CWA. There is some weak elevated instability modeled along and behind the front so a few rumbles of thunder cannot be ruled out, but severe weather is not expected. Overnight temperatures will be in the 50s , with some upper 40s over the Tug Hill and northern Catskills. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... A warm front will push through the area Wednesday morning. The best lift and moisture should translate north and east of our region. However, enough lift and moisture near the boundary look to be present for a few showers and thunderstorms. The environment looks highly sheared with some instability as well. A fairly impressive wedge of mid-level dry air and steep low level lapse rates could factor in with wind and hail potential. So while coverage looks lackluster what develops could become strong to perhaps severe. Wednesday should be the warmest day well into the 70's. After the cold frontal passage Wednesday enough of a colder airmass should advect in for lows to fall to around 50. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A very active pattern continues with another low pressure system moving through with a broad trough in place. Widespread rain looks to develop ahead of a warm front during the day Thursday than taper off to showers as the main low pressure system moves through Friday. Yet another system with some showers then follows for the weekend. Cooler with highs in the 50's and 60's and lows in the 40's. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... 645 AM Update... Widespread MVFR are across the area for most sites still. Some IFR at some sites this morning. Cigs and vsbys improve today to be VFR. VFR tonight. No valley fog expected at this time. A cold front is making its way southeast through CNY now and AVP this afternoon. IFR along the front and at BGM/AVP ahead of it. BGM will remain IFR until around 18z, then VFR by 20z. Through 14z cigs and possibly vsbys will be around airport minimums. AVP has fallen to IFR cigs. IFR until 18z then VFR at 22z. SYR/RME will remain MVFR until 16z then lift to VFR. ITH should be IFR from 12 to 15z then lift to VFR at 17z. ELM is MVFR and may get IFR 12 to 14z before lifting to VFR at 17z. Light winds under 7 kts early this morning, turning west and northwest at 4 to 8 kts this morning and afternoon. Tonight winds light and variable to calm. Outlook... Tuesday through Tuesday evening...Mainly VFR expected. Tuesday overnight into Wednesday morning....Restrictions likely with a period of rain showers along a warm front. Wednesday afternoon and night...Mainly VFR; except lingering MVFR possible at RME & perhaps SYR. Thursday through Friday... Periods of showers with some restrictions. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JTC NEAR TERM...JTC/MJM SHORT TERM...MWG LONG TERM...MWG AVIATION...JTC ####018009097#### FXUS61 KRLX 062243 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 643 PM EDT Mon May 6 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Active weather prevails through the work week, with daily chances for showers and storms. The frequency of storms will pose concern for localized flooding each day. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 630 PM Monday... Cleaned up POPs through the evening hours to reflect current conditions and trends, and also latest hi-res guidance. Otherwise, did drop sky cover a bit over central and western parts of the CWA to match the patchy clearing and filtered sunshine we've been seeing. Did add in fog to the weather grids for some valley locations. As of 122 PM Monday... The severe threat remains low this afternoon and into this evening, but some storms have been producing small hail up to 0.50" in diameter, below severe criteria. 1 hour flash flood guidance is lowest near the Ohio River in northwestern WV and southeast OH, around 0.75-1.25". Therefore, we will continue to monitor for the threat of flooding where thunderstorms move over repeated areas. Dense fog will likely develop overnight with calm winds and plentiful surface moisture, especially in areas that saw rainfall today. The threat of severe thunderstorms will return tomorrow, with all severe modes possible (damaging winds, tornadoes, large hail). MLCAPE values of 1,500-2,000 J/kg and 0-6 km bulk shear of 35-45 kts will provide support for organized convection Tuesday afternoon and evening. The better atmospheric dynamics will likely be across western WV, southeast OH and northeast KY, and this is where the Slight Risk is located. The best overall threat for severe weather Tuesday afternoon will be just outside of our County Warning Area, across central and western Ohio. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 320 PM Monday... Key Points: * Isolated to scattered severe storms and localized flash flooding possible Tuesday afternoon and evening. Damaging wind gusts and hail are the main concerns, though a tornado can't be ruled out. * Wednesday brings potential for another round of severe storms and localized flooding, particularly at night. A mid-upper level short wave trough approaching from the west drives a surface cold front toward the area Tuesday night, and then across the area overnight into Wednesday morning. Strong to severe thunderstorms likely on going at the end of the day Tuesday continue out ahead of the cold front Tuesday evening, as elevated CAPE of 2-2.5 KJ/kg are maintained ahead of the cold front. The strongest storms will be over the middle Ohio valley, as an instability gradient with CAPE decreasing to the east is maintained. PW values up around 1.5 inches ahead of the front also spell high rainfall rates which could also yield a localized flash flood threat. especially in those area most saturated from previous rainfall this week. Wednesday brings a lull in convection as the front stalls across southern portions of the area, and ridging at all levels tilting west with height crosses. Afternoon thunderstorms can still pop up, mainly central and southern portions of the area, near and south of the front. A strengthening low level southwest flow transports rich moisture into the area Wednesday night, amid increasing shear ahead of another mid-upper level short wave trough and triple point, as the front lifts through the area as a warm front, and then the cold front associated with the system approaches. With elevated CAPE of at least 2 KJ/kg, 0-6 kn bulk shear 35-45 kts, and 0-3 km helicity in excess of 300 m2/s2, this is likely to increase the severe weather threat overnight Wednesday night, including damaging wind, hail, heavy to excessive rainfall and even tornadoes. Central guidance temperatures reflect the unseasonably warm conditions during this period, mid 80s by day and mid 60s by night across the lowlands. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 100 PM Monday... Key Points: * Unsettled pattern persists through the period. * Strongest, heaviest thunderstorms most likely on Thursday. A mid-upper level short wave trough approaches Thursday, and then crosses on Friday, leaving a more southern stream component stranded out over the Four Corners Region. A second mid-upper level short wave trough then crosses this weekend. A surface low pressure system associated with the first trough passes just north of the forecast area Thursday, its cold front crossing the forecast area during the morning to midday hours. With very warm and moist air having been transported across the area ahead of the system, showers will be widespread across the area Thursday morning, with embedded heavier rainfall including a few thunderstorms. Flooding potential this week is likely to be highest Thursday given the likelihood of heavy rain on saturated grounds from following rounds of heavy rain during the short term. Elevated CAPE up around 2 KJ/kg and intense shear associated with the system, including 0-3 km storm relative helicity possibly as high as 400 ms/s2, could lead to severe weather including a tornado or two Thursday, despite the early day timing. A more isolated severe threat continues through the peak heating hours, even as the initial cold front passes. Thunderstorms weaken and dissipate, and shower coverage decreases, Thursday night. The passage of the mid-upper level trough Friday is likely to lead to an increase in shower and thunderstorm coverage again, especially during the afternoon heating, with gusty winds and hail possible beneath the cold air aloft. The second short wave trough follows right on the heels of its predecessor and slowly crosses next weekend. With a weaker surface reflection, this will lead to more diurnally tied showers and thunderstorms. There is uncertainty as to how deep the trough digs, but the more it does, the greater the afternoon hail threat, especially if it digs far enough south to get its low center over the forecast area. Central guidance reflects above normal temperatures Thursday getting knocked back to around normal for Friday and the weekend, in the wake of the passage of the first trough and surface low pressure system. && .AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 120 PM Monday... Showers and thunderstorms will remain scattered throughout the rest of the afternoon and into early this evening. The exact timing and location of thunderstorms is difficult to pinpoint, but any location that receives a thunderstorm can expect brief deterioration to IFR conditions. VCTS was included in the TAFs for this afternoon due to the low confidence of thunderstorm timing at each terminal. The MVFR/IFR cloud deck over central and western portions of West Virginia will persist through late this afternoon. There may be a brief improvement to VFR conditions this evening before areas of fog return overnight. Expect fog to begin to develop after 03Z Tuesday, lasting until 12-14Z. Expect IFR and LIFR conditions in fog overnight. Winds will remain light through the duration of the TAF period. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to low in fog; medium for the afternoon. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and location of shower/storm restrictions may vary from forecast. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 EDT 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M L L M M M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M L L L L L BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M M M M M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H L L M L L M M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M M M M H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M L L M M M AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY... IFR conditions at times in showers and thunderstorms into Thursday, and in fog and stratus on mornings following showers and thunderstorms. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FK/TRM/JMC NEAR TERM...FK/JMC SHORT TERM...TRM LONG TERM...TRM AVIATION...JMC