####018006686#### FXUS63 KDMX 090504 AFDDMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Des Moines IA 1104 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025 ...Updated for the 06z Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... - Possible blizzard conditions developing Tuesday night into Wednesday morning as strong, gusty winds of 40 to 55+ mph unlock existing snow pack. Narrow snow bands are also possible after midnight Wednesday into Wednesday morning. - Before Tuesday night, there is an area of fog moving through northern Iowa into tonight. Conditions will be milder on Tuesday as well with light wintry precipitation far northern and northeastern Iowa with any accumulations minimal. - Active pattern continues through the rest of the week with additional snow chances and colder air returning. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 253 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025 An active weather pattern continues into this second week of December as northwesterly flow aloft prevails and allows for a series of shortwave troughs (aka clippers) to track through the region. Before we get to the clippers and their associated weather, GOES-East Day Cloud Phase Distinction RGB shows plenty of clouds over northern and western Iowa with a few peeks at the snow pack over southeastern Iowa. In addition, an area of fog has been lingering over northwest Iowa with the Iowa DOT webcam at Estherville showing a foggy scene. This fog will slowly move eastward this afternoon into tonight largely north of Highway 30. Will have to monitor trends into this evening if visibility declines below a quarter mile, but so far much of today has been a 1/2 mile at worst in Estherville, but generally above a mile. As we move into Tuesday, one clipper will be passing into the western Great Lakes with the next robust clipper moving into North Dakota Tuesday morning. Between these, strong low level warm air advection will set up and bring milder air into Iowa. However, cloud cover will be stout, especially over northern into central Iowa, and with the snow cover over the state, the initial National Blend of Models (NBM) is overdone with its degree of mixing and thus warming. So, have shrunk the diurnal temperature range and am now closer to the dewpoint temperature, which cuts highs by 3 to 4 degrees. As the robust clipper approaches from the northwest, its strong forcing will move over northern and eastern Iowa in the afternoon and evening. While low level temperatures will be warm enough for rain, near surface temperatures could be close to or just below freezing. This may result in a short period of freezing rain over the far northern and northeastern counties, which transitions to rain as the warmer air and diabatic processes win out. Any icing looks to be minimal and relegated to elevated surfaces. With the clipper racing off to the east, the rain may switch briefly to and end as a bit of light snow with accumulations similarly minimal. The big story will be the strong winds that crank up as a cold front slams through the state Tuesday night with the potential for ground blizzard conditions developing. There look to be two waves of cold air advection with the first arriving in the evening. BUFKIT soundings from the NAM and RAP show impressive winds at 850mb topping 55 knots for 6 or more hours dropping over much of the state. As the profile cools, deep, mechanical mixing will begin to tap into these stronger winds so wind speeds were adjusted upward with a blend of WRF-ARW and NBM 90th percentile. This pushes gusts up to around 50 knots/58 mph and high wind warning criteria over northern Iowa to as far south as Highway 30. However, it is December and there is a snow pack on the ground, which raises the question of blowing snow and ground blizzard. The Waterloo snow observer and here at our office in Johnston both have a blowable snow pack on the ground at this hour. Temperatures into Tuesday are likely to rise above freezing, creating a crust on the snow. However, the crust is likely to be thin and breakable given the prolonged strong wind speeds forecast Tuesday night. We've seen past events where this has occurred, including the February 7, 2016 blizzard that had higher temperatures and a deeper crust than this event will have. So, as temperatures cool and the winds blow, this snow pack will be released resulting in significant blowing and drifting snow and visibility reductions. This has resulted in the issuance of a Winter Storm Watch for (ground) blizzard conditions. As another round of cold air advection coupled with a trailing strong pressure rise drops in towards sunrise Wednesday with an elevated front, this should keep the blowing snow going into the daytime hours waning towards Wednesday afternoon. As if this all was not enough, the second push of cold air also steepens low level lapse rates resulting in low level instability with saturation reaching into the dendritic growth zone (DGZ). Snow squall parameter, especially based off of the 1km layer version, are pinging with this boundary from around a little after midnight over northern Iowa to early to mid- morning over southern Iowa. Any falling snow will add to the blowing snow and visibility reductions. Bottom line is that blowing snow is likely to have an large impact late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, especially over northern Iowa, and impacts to travel in the form of slick roads and reduced visibility are increasing. The active pattern continues through the end of the week with additional clippers and snow chances with temperatures colder Wednesday and Thursday lower compared to Tuesday. Even colder air may arrive by late this week into this weekend. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1104 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025 IFR cigs are currently in place across north central IA and the bank continues to lift northeast. It is clearing FOD now and will clear MCW by 09Z. Rain and the potential for MVFR cigs will overspread northern IA late Tuesday afternoon. Winds will shift from south to west Tuesday, then northwest Tuesday night and increase markedly with gusts possibly to 50 kts just after the current period. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Storm Watch from late Tuesday night through Wednesday morning for IAZ004>007-015>017-023>028-033>039-044>050. && $$ DISCUSSION...Ansorge AVIATION...Borghoff ####018004958#### FXUS63 KUNR 090505 AFDUNR Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY National Weather Service Rapid City SD 1005 PM MST Mon Dec 8 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Mild, dry and breezy this afternoon. Wind gusts occasionally up to 45 mph possible - Strong winds likely Tuesday. A High Wind Warning is now in effect for most of western SD - Turning colder with chances for light snow across the region Wednesday through Friday && .UPDATE... Issued at 803 PM MST Mon Dec 8 2025 Have upped wind speeds over northeastern WY per latest deterministic guidance in combination with earlier probabilistic guidance. 00z NAM Bufkit soundings/HRRR suggest high wind warning winds over northeastern WY Tuesday, but MOS not as excited with best isallobaric forcing (4-5mb/3hr pressure rises) over western SD. NBM depicts <20% chance of >=58mph gusts for northeastern WY. Western SD plains have the expected high probabilities. Thus, the current wind headlines look good. Midnight shift can take one more look before strong cold front arrives. && .DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Monday) Issued at 1247 PM MST Mon Dec 8 2025 Rest of today...Not much going on across the region this afternoon. A weak wave is passing through which has kicked up the winds a bit over the last hour. These breezy conditions will continue for several more hours before they diminish. Winds could occasionally gust up to 45 mph with mild temperatures. Heading into Tuesday morning a stronger area of low pressure will bring a surface front through the region during the early morning hours and ahead of the main wind event. This will provide a window for some light snow or a rain/snow mix to occur across the northwestern portions of the area. Expecting a quick transition to all rain as the strong downsloping winds develop which will quickly warm temperatures. This area of low pressure will slide to the SE across central ND and SD Tuesday. A belt of 55-60 not winds will overspread the region quickly and winds are expected to turn gusty rather quickly during the morning hours on Tuesday. a suite of HI-RES models have come in a bit stronger with these winds aloft around the 850mb level showing a concentrated area of 70+ knot winds across the eastern plains. While these winds aloft are impressive the strong CAA advection we were expecting has not been pushed off to the north and east and this will limit some mixing down of these winds. But precipitation post frontal boundary will linger across the region in the form of banded lines of rain showers. These will be a concern as locations under these areas of precipitation may see sudden bursts of rain/snow, snow or, graupel as well as strong wind gusts as those strong winds aloft will mix down with the precipitation. Outside of that, much of western SD and the eastern Plains will experience strong winds throughout much of the day on Tuesday with wind gusts commonly exceeding 60 mph with a few locations seeing wind gusts at or over 65 mph. Given this a High Wind Warning is now in affect for Tuesday morning through late Tuesday night. Another system is on the heels with the exiting system with unsettled weather expected to persist Wednesday through the rest of the week. Models are beginning to settle in on the overall long wave pattern but the mesoscale parameters that will determine how quickly we transition to all snow, how strong the CAA will be and surface flow still need to be ironed out to pinpoint just how much snow will fall and where the heaviest snow will occur. The overall consensus at this time is for widespread snow looks likely with light accumulations possible. With this pattern shift temperatures are also expected to turn colder as CAA eventually advects into the region. This will drop highs into the upper teens to lower 20s with overnight lows in the single digits. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS Through 06Z Tuesday Night) Issued At 1005 PM MST Mon Dec 8 2025 VFR conditions are expected through 09/12z. A strong cold front will move through Tuesday bringing strong, gusty northwest winds behind it, reaching 50-55kts on the western SD plains at times after 09/15z. Areas of MVFR/IFR conditions due to lower clouds/ra/sn will affect northeastern WY/northwest SD behind the front. Mainly VFR conditions expected over southwest into south- central SD. && .UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...High Wind Warning from 8 AM MST /9 AM CST/ Tuesday to 2 AM MST /3 AM CST/ Wednesday for SDZ001-002-012>014-025>027-030>032- 041>044-046-047-049-072>078. WY...High Wind Warning from 8 AM Tuesday to 2 AM MST Wednesday for WYZ060. && $$ UPDATE...Helgeson DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...Woodward AVIATION...Wong ####018017645#### FXUS61 KCLE 090505 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 1205 AM EST Tue Dec 9 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A warm front lifts across the area on Tuesday, ahead of strong low pressure that tracks through the southern Great Lakes on Wednesday. A cold front crosses Wednesday afternoon behind this low pressure. After brief high pressure Thursday into Thursday night, a series of clippers and cold fronts is expected Friday into the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... -Unseasonably cold lows in the single digits and 10s expected tonight. -A quick-moving band of snow spreads across the area on Tuesday, potentially bringing a quick coating to 1" of snow. Impacts would be brief and minor, favoring northern portions of the area. A quiet and cold early December night is in store as high pressure that's in control today begins exiting east tonight. Partly cloudy skies this afternoon will briefly go mostly clear tonight, before clouds start increasing from the west late tonight. Lows will reach the single digits and 10s (colder in inland and less urban area, milder near the lake and in the densely urban Cleveland area). A low-amplitude shortwave will zip across the Great Lakes on Tuesday as a warm front lifts across the area, likely bringing a quick period of snow from west to east during the morning and early-mid afternoon hours. This snow will primarily be forced by strong warm air advection and isentropic lift in the low-mid levels just ahead of the surface warm front, on the nose of a 50kt low-level jet. Weaker forcing and increasingly dry low-levels decreases snow potential farther south across our area, though snow is likely across at least our northern couple of rows of counties. POPs have been increased some across the board with at least a 20-30% chance everywhere, increasing to 60-70% across the north, and may need to go a bit higher with the next update if trends continue. This will be a quick hit of snow, spreading into Northwest OH 6-8 AM, reaching Cleveland/Akron 9-11 AM and PA by midday. Accumulating snow will not last more than 1-3 hours in a given area before tapering off. However, model forecast soundings show moderate to strong lift briefly co-located with the dendritic growth zone (DGZ) with this snow as it moves across the area, so even though the forecast reads an inch or less of snow across the board it may briefly come down. Where road temperatures remain cold (higher confidence west of I-77 where snow arrives earlier in the day, more debatable east of the I-77 corridor) the quick hit of snow may be briefly impactful on the roads. Models do disagree a fair bit still regarding how far south into our area this quick band of snow will impact, with spread ranging from a quick inch or so of snow almost down to US 30 (higher confidence in brief impacts in that scenario) to amounts of 0.5" or less confined to the far north (which would not be impactful). Something in between is most likely to verify, though given the co-location of the lift with the DGZ on model soundings, we may end up on the slightly snowier side of these solutions. There should be a general lull in measurable precipitation late Tuesday afternoon and evening, though a few flurries or perhaps drizzle may linger across northern Ohio and northwestern PA. Highs on Tuesday will range from near 30 in the higher terrain of PA to the milder upper 30s across the western half of the area. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... -Accumulating wet snow favoring the higher terrain of Northeast OH and Northwest PA Tuesday night into Wednesday morning ahead of a clipper. The timing of snow may impact the Wednesday morning commute. The rest of the area will likely see chilly rain or a rain/snow mix. -Windy conditions area wide late Tuesday night through Wednesday as the clipper progresses through, with gusts over 40 MPH possible. -A strong cold front crosses late Wednesday, bringing falling temperatures and scattered snow showers area-wide. Light to moderate lake effect snow lingers in the snowbelt Wednesday night & Thursday. A potent clipper, associated with surface low pressure near 985mb, will zip through the Great Lakes on Wednesday. Another warm front lifts through area late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning ahead of the approaching low. The low tracks through Michigan Wednesday morning, pulling an initial cold front across the area during the late morning/early afternoon hours. A secondary cold front, with a tap of deeper cold/Arctic air behind it, crosses Wednesday evening. Low pressure quickly exits through northern New England near the St Lawrence River Wednesday night, with lingering chilly cyclonic flow behind it into Thursday. High pressure builds into the Ohio Valley later Thursday into Thursday night. A brief period of strong lift moves into the area late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning along and just ahead of the warm front, bringing an initial round of precipitation. Lows Tuesday night will generally be near or a bit above freezing. This precipitation continues to be forecast to fall as a rain/snow mix with the greatest potential for snow farther east across our area and in the higher terrain, though there have been noticeable trends in guidance today that suggest the potential for more snow vs rain is increasing. This lift will be focused ahead of the incoming strong/sharp vort max, with a window of strong isentropic lift on the nose of a moisture-rich 50-60kt low-level jet. Forecast soundings suggest this lift may largely be focused in and above the DGZ, with hints at some modest slantwise instability in the mid-levels as well. These are all arguments for a period of both good precipitation rates and dynamic cooling within the initial round of precipitation late Tuesday night into early Wednesday, suggesting that potential is there for a period of accumulating snow even if the low-levels are on the milder side. The forecast continues to call for POPs ramping up Tuesday night into early Wednesday with a rain/snow mix for most of the area, but has trended towards a bit more snow wording across the eastern portions of the area and a bit more rain/snow wording farther west where the prior forecast called for mainly or all rain. The deterministic snow forecast calls for 1-3" in the higher terrain of Northwest PA and 0.5-2" across the higher terrain of Northeast OH, with little to none near the lake and farther west. It's worth noting that NBM 90th percentile (aka "reasonable worst case scenario") snow amounts range from 2-4" across Northwest PA to 1-3" across Northeast OH, with lighter amounts as far west as the higher terrain near Mansfield. Given the impressive dynamics involved we will need to monitor for amounts to trend towards this higher end, particularly if we see the system trend any more dynamic or slightly farther south. A Winter Wx Advisory may be needed for far Northeast OH and Northwest PA for Tuesday night into early Wednesday, with impacts to the commute a consideration if snow amounts do trend towards the 90th percentile. We quickly get into a dry slot Wednesday morning, which should lead to precipitation weakening and likely allowing lingering precipitation to more readily change to all rain, even in Northeast OH and Northwest PA. The initial cold front late Wednesday morning and early afternoon will likely bring a broken, low-topped band of weakly convective rain/snow showers. A secondary front and associated strong low-mid level trough axis crosses late Wednesday afternoon or evening, bringing scattered to numerous snow showers area-wide with a lake- enhanced burst of snow downwind of the lake into Northeast OH and Northwest PA. This should not lead to much snow outside of the lake enhancement, generally under an inch, though may contribute to slick conditions where snow continues as temperatures drop Wednesday night. Highs on Wednesday will likely occur late morning or early afternoon, in the upper 30s or lower 40s. Temperatures will slowly fall Wednesday afternoon and evening, with a harsher temperature drop Wednesday night. Wind gusts of 35-45 MPH are expected early Wednesday morning through late Wednesday afternoon, initially out of the south but shifting more west-southwest through the day. Some potential for parts of the area to need a Wind Advisory is there, though ultimately the strongest winds aloft occurring during morning on Wednesday in a warm air advection regime with lots of cloud cover may work against effectively mixing down advisory-level gusts. However, that potential will be monitored and either way it will be windy. Lake effect will setup Wednesday night into Thursday amid west- northwest flow behind the departing clipper. There are some pros and cons to this lake effect setup...pros including some lingering low- level synoptic moisture, upstream connections to Lakes Michigan and Huron, and strong low-level lapse rates as 850mb temperatures bottom out in the -12C to -14C range early Thursday over lake water temps of 3-5C east of the Lake Erie Islands. Cons include mid-level moisture quickly stripping away and equilibrium levels quickly falling to 5-7k feet, meaning it will be a struggle to see deep lake effect bands that tap into the most ideal dendritic growth zone. Ultimately, locations that see persistent lake effect may see another few inches of snow Wednesday night through Thursday, favoring the higher terrain of Northwest PA but with some accumulations in the Ohio snowbelt too. Lake effect will continue into Thursday night but should gradually weaken and/or shift northeast, as warm advection aloft kicks in and as winds gradually back to a more west-southwest direction. The lake effect snow may marginally reach advisory levels, mainly in inland PA. Outside of the lake effect conditions should dry quickly Wednesday night, though flurries off of Lake Michigan will likely drift into western portions of the area into at least Thursday with little to no accumulation potential. These flurries from Lake Michigan should taper into Thursday night as high pressure builds in. Lows Wednesday night will generally reach the low-mid 20s. Highs on Thursday don't go up much, mid 20s to near 30. Lows in the 10s to low 20s (warmest in the snowbelt due to cloud cover) Thursday night. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... -High confidence in very cold weather this weekend, with highs struggling to exceed 20 and lows in the single digits and 10s. Wind chills may dip below 0 degrees at times. -Confidence in details remains low, but potential is there for one or two clippers to bring widespread light to moderate snow accumulations Friday through Saturday night. -At least some lake effect snow is expected this weekend in the snowbelt, with potential (lower confidence) for impactful amounts. A longwave trough with a good connection of Arctic air will amplify over the Great Lakes and Northeast this weekend, reaching peak amplitude Saturday and Sunday before beginning to exit as milder and more zonal flow attempts to establish itself from the west. There is high confidence in a period of cold weather this weekend, with highs struggling to exceed 20 degrees by Sunday and overnight lows in the single digits to lower 10s. Friday should see similar high temperatures to Thursday before the deeper cold arrives. A moderation trend should begin by Monday, though confidence in exactly how quickly we warm up isn't high yet. A period of windier weather is also likely, probably centered around Saturday and Saturday night. What there's less confidence in is any snow potential during the long term period. An initial shortwave/clipper zips through the region on Friday, with another shortwave/clipper expected later Saturday and Saturday night. Both clippers could bring swaths of fluffy, light to perhaps moderate accumulations. Drier weather (outside of lake effect) is generally favored for Sunday and Monday. The track of each clipper and impacts to the local area will need to be pinned down, as ensemble members depict various potential tracks and swaths of snow with each clipper, not all of which would do much locally. Deeper cold air gets pulled in Saturday night into Sunday behind the second clipper. Guidance has been bouncing around regarding how deep the cold air is and if we have more of a west vs northwest wind. Confidence in accumulating lake effect snow across parts of the snowbelt Saturday night through at least Sunday is fairly high, though potential peak amounts and placement will take the next several days to fully resolve. Impactful lake effect is possible, and those in Northeast OH and Northwest PA will want to monitor the potential. && .AVIATION /06Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/... High pressure over the area departs to the east, with VFR conditions continuing through the overnight hours. A warm front will be accompanied by a band of light to moderate snowfall tracking eastward across the area Tuesday morning through early Tuesday afternoon. There is some uncertainty with how far south this band of snow will extend, with confidence higher in a 1-2 hour period of IFR visibilities across the northern part of the forecast area (including KTOL, KCLE, and KERI). Visibility could briefly reach as low as 1/2 SM to 1 SM in the heart of the snow band across our the northern forecast area. There is lower confidence across the southern portion of the forecast area where visibilites may remain above 3 SM (or at least IFR visibilities will be more brief). As the warm front crosses the area, strong southwest winds of around 15 knots with gusts to 25 knots expected areawide. Stronger peak wind gusts of up to 30-35 knots may be possible at western sites such as KTOL, KFDY, and KMFD and along the lakeshore (e.g. KERI). OVC/BKN will remain across much of the area, with FEW/SCT possible across the southern portion of the area. Cloud bases will be around 3500-5000 ft. Precipitation associated with the main low pressure system will move in from the west Tuesday night, resulting in gradually lower ceilings to primarily MVFR initially. Precipitation type is going to be a forecast challenge for Tuesday night when precipitation will fall as a mix of rain and snow, with a low chance of freezing rain with the initial first few hours of precipitation. Warmer temperatures will exist to the southwest, which is where all rain is most likely (e.g. KFDY). The farther north and east you get, the more likely it is to mix in snow (KTOL, KCLE, KMFD, KCAK) and/or be all snow (KERI/KYNG). The low chance of freezing rain is most likely at KMFD, KCAK, and KYNG. Outlook...Non-VFR is expected with snow Tuesday night which will gradually transition to rain by Wednesday morning. Rain will transition back over to snow Wednesday evening. Periods of snow will be possible Thursday through Saturday, especially in Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania. Strong southwest to west wind gusts up to 30 to 40 knots are possible Wednesday. && .MARINE... Unsettled marine conditions are anticipated for much of this week as a series of systems cross the region. Southeast winds to 10 to 15 knots will develop tonight with south/southwest flow developing and increasing behind a warm front by Tuesday morning. Small Craft Advisories start in all nearshore zones at 12Z Tuesday morning and winds in the open waters mainly in the central and eastern basins will likely reach 25 to 30 knots for a period Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening. The strongest winds will develop as a strong cold front approaches and moves east across the lake late Tuesday night through Wednesday and winds will likely reach 25 to 35 knots in the central and eastern basins of the lake between about 09Z/4 AM Wednesday and 00Z/7 PM Wednesday evening. A Gale Watch is in effect during this time. Winds will likely be a bit too southerly to warrant any low water issues in the western basin on Tuesday, but a Low Water Advisory will likely be needed at some point with the strongest west/southwest winds on Wednesday. Small Craft Advisories will likely continue after the expiration of any gale headlines Wednesday night onwards, although there may be a brief lull in higher winds/waves late Thursday night/early Friday morning before southwest winds increase to 25 to 30 knots ahead of the next approaching system Friday night through Saturday. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM Tuesday to 4 AM EST Thursday for LEZ142-143. Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM Tuesday to 4 AM EST Wednesday for LEZ144>149. Gale Watch from late Tuesday night through Wednesday evening for LEZ144>149-164>169. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Sullivan NEAR TERM...Sullivan SHORT TERM...Sullivan LONG TERM...Sullivan AVIATION...Saunders MARINE...15 ####018004590#### FXUS64 KEPZ 090506 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 1006 PM MST Mon Dec 8 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1005 PM MST Mon Dec 8 2025 - No significant weather impacts are expected through next week. - Dry conditions, typical afternoon breezes, and a gradual warming trend will occur this week with near record highs possible Thursday and Friday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1005 PM MST Mon Dec 8 2025 No changes from previous forecast packages as a quiet weather pattern persists over the Desert Southwest through the work week and into the weekend. Strong upper level high pressure over the eastern Pacific will continue to promote dry northwesterly flow over the Borderland Region. All in all, expected quiet and fair weather conditions through the work week. High temperatures will continue to increase each day with highs becoming 10-17 degrees above average Wednesday through Friday. The warmest temperatures will be on Thursday, with near record values across the desert lowlands. Cloud coverage will be a minimum with instances of high level cirrus from time to time. Winds each afternoon will be light to low-end breezy, typical diurnal wind flow regime. Quiet and fair weather conditions continue this weekend. Model guidance is hinting at a cold front moving in from the east during the weekend timeframe. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1005 PM MST Mon Dec 8 2025 VMC expected through the period with skies SKC. Winds light and VRB through the overnight and morning timeframe, becoming SWerly at 5-10 knots during the afternoon. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1002 AM MST Mon Dec 8 2025 Warm and dry for this time of the year will be the story for this week as high temperatures will start out about 5 degrees above normal and warm to 10-15 above normal by Thu/Fri. Dry air at the surface will allow min RH's to drop into the 15-25% range daily but winds will be fairly light, maybe an occasional breezy day in the mountains. Light winds and strong morning inversions will keep vent rates poor to fair the next couple of days. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 67 40 69 40 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 61 35 63 34 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 64 35 65 35 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 64 37 66 36 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 46 32 49 31 / 0 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 62 37 64 39 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 63 38 67 38 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 67 34 69 35 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 64 34 68 35 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 64 40 66 41 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 67 30 66 31 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 69 36 69 36 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 57 38 61 39 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 66 34 68 36 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 63 34 65 36 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 65 43 66 43 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 63 32 66 34 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 67 34 69 34 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 67 38 68 38 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 61 33 64 34 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 62 39 57 36 / 0 0 0 0 Mescalero 56 33 60 33 / 0 0 0 0 Timberon 56 33 57 31 / 0 0 0 0 Winston 63 34 63 33 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 66 40 65 40 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 63 33 65 33 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 64 33 67 32 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 65 36 67 36 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 67 33 72 33 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 64 34 69 34 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 64 40 65 39 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 66 37 69 36 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 65 34 68 35 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 66 36 69 37 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 64 42 67 41 / 0 0 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...38-Rogers ####018005947#### FXUS65 KPIH 090507 AFDPIH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pocatello ID 1007 PM MST Mon Dec 8 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Above average temperatures expected throughout the week - Rain and higher elevation snow likely, with most impacts above pass level - Breezy/windy conditions will persist through at least midweek && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 1257 PM MST Mon Dec 8 2025 Northwest flow will impact our weather to start out the week, bringing plenty of moisture some higher ridges and passes. This pattern is abnormally warm, so snow levels will be on the rise. Look for those to peak tomorrow afternoon around 7000-8000ft over most of eastern Idaho, although they may end up about 1000ft lower from Island Park down through the southeast corner. Some colder air TRIES to drop over the Divide tomorrow afternoon and evening, but never really gets a chance to do it. We will likely see snow levels dip around Island Park, Dubois and into the Challis area into the 5500-6500ft range, before shooting up to above pass level tomorrow night...except around Island Park where a bit of colder air is trapped. With this being a northwest flow pattern, a huge chunk of the precipitation will fall across the Sawtooths and Frank Church, Island Park, Tetons and Big Holes. We will occasionally see some better moisture "pivot" into the southeast highlands in the mountains and highest elevations for the South Hills and Albion Mountains. Most of the Snake Plain and Magic Valley will dry, with an occasional surge of light precipitation mainly for higher bench areas. The biggest impact across the Plain will be stronger winds. Winds ramp up tonight and stay strong, save for a brief lull tomorrow afternoon. Sustained winds of 15-30 mph with gusts of 25-45 mph (location dependent). We COULD push barely into WIND ADVISORY territory across the INL and Arco Desert, but certainly nothing worth issuing a headline for at the moment. For those areas favored the heaviest precipitation, 48 hour totals through sunrise Wednesday, 0.50-1.0" totals are likely. Higher elevations of the Sawtooths and surrounding ranges look to exceed 1.50". There is a 20-40% chance of exceeding 1.0" for the Big Holes and Tetons, but those amounts may be inflated due to higher resolution models being too aggressive sometimes in these patterns. There is a 30-60% chance of more than 1.50" for the Sawtooths/surrounding ranges, and a 15-25% of exceeding 2"...but we may be seeing similar over-aggressive forecasting there as well. In terms of snowfall numbers, areas above 9000ft in those favored moisture areas...we are looking at potentially 8-18" with localized higher amounts. Much lighter amounts, up to 5", are possible down to near 7000ft. Due to that colder air dipping into Island Park, we could see 1-4" for lower elevations. Circling back to the wind, gusts at times of 35-45 mph are expected at ridgetop. That could cause some blowing and drifting conditions in spots, but again that is well up in elevation and only impacting backcountry activities. Based on all of this, we don't expect any headlines right now for snow or wind. We are going to start a period of above average temperatures, including lows. Overnight temperatures stay above freezing except for middle elevation valleys and the mountains. Valley highs push well into the 40s and even low 50s Tuesday, with only spots remaining below freezing closer to ridgetop level. It will be even warmer Tuesday night where the wind will keep things "mixed out", with overnight temperatures in the mid 30s to mid 40s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 1257 PM MST Mon Dec 8 2025 Extremely mild conditions is the main talking point in the long term period with temperatures ranging in the 15 to 20 degrees above normal range Wednesday through next Monday. At this point for the next 8 days there appears to be no intrusion of cold air on the horizon. Will have lingering showers Wednesday with the retreating atmospheric river conditions sliding north as upper ridge begins to build to west. Precipitation mainly limited to the Sawtooths, central mountains and eastern highlands. Snow levels between 8 and 9 thousand feet so not expecting snow impacts by Wednesday. It will be windy with 20 to 30 mph sustained winds in the Snake River Plain. Highs Wednesday mainly 40s mountains and 50s to near 60 valleys. Thursday through next Monday generally much drier with only some mountain showers with high temperatures remaining very warm with mainly 40s mountains and mid 40s to mid 50s valleys. By Friday expect to see a significant decrease in wind speeds as well. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1007 PM MST Mon Dec 8 2025 Main impacts for the rest of tonight and tomorrow mainly deal with wind with gusty conditions likely at all TAF sites by tomorrow afternoon and gusts likely at PIH and IDA for the rest of the night. Winds at SUN will likely be light maybe occasionally downvalley. Think SUN will become westerly or southwesterly by afternoon with a few gusts to near 20 kts. Although quite a bit of moisture is streaming through the region. Drying effects are resulting in very little ceiling or visibility impacts. DIJ is the only site that could see a reduction of ceilings and visibilities from passing showers tonight and through the day on Tuesday. The HRRR is indicating a convergence zone moving down from the north tomorrow afternoon which could affect IDA, but confidence is low at this point. && .PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Keyes LONG TERM...GK AVIATION...13 ####018004579#### FXUS64 KTSA 090509 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1109 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1107 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025 - Patchy fog is possible through this morning mainly near and south of the Ouachitas, especially in the valleys. - Warm and breezy conditions likely today, with gusts up to 30 mph promoting limited fire weather potential this afternoon. - Near to above average temperatures persist through late week before additional cold fronts bring below average temps this weekend and early next week. - Precipitation chances remain very low over the next 7 days. && .SHORT TERM... (Through Tuesday) Issued at 1107 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025 Patchy fog remains possible this morning in Pushmataha and Choctaw counties with visibilities locally falling below a mile or less. Isolated instances of freezing fog could develop as temperatures fall to near freezing, but coverage and any impacts are currently expected to remain limited and no advisory is planned with this forecast package. Will let the midnight shift reevaluate and issue an advisory if needed. Downsloping SW flow strengthens today as lee troughing tightens pressure gradients this afternoon. This will result in breezy conditions and temperatures climbing into the upper 50s and lower 60s, which is several degrees above average for this time of year. Southwest winds intensify by late morning and afternoon, with gusts between 20 and 30 mph. As a result, limited fire weather conditions develop this afternoon as min RHs fall into the 35-45% range and it has been one to two weeks since the last wetting rainfall. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday Night through Monday) Issued at 1107 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025 Winds decrease after sunset but remain elevated through the overnight hours ahead of an approaching cold front. This will help hold low temperatures tonight mostly in the 40s in the pre-frontal environment. By late Tuesday night/ Wednesday morning, the front advances through the FA, bringing a slightly cooler airmass to the area. High pressure fills into the region during the day Wednesday with highs in the 50s and dry conditions persisting. Southwest flow then returns on Thursday as high pressure moves east and lee troughing redevelops over the high plains. High temperatures again climb into the upper 50s or lower 60s with breezy conditions. Another cold front arrives Thursday night into Friday, cooling temperatures for Friday, especially across NE OK and NW AR, where highs may struggle to exceed 50 degrees. Yet another cold front is projected to move through the FA over the weekend, pulling high temperatures back into the 30s or 40s for much of the area to start next week. Overall, dry conditions are expected through the forecast period under dry northwest flow aloft. However, there is some indication that low level moisture may creep into SE OK and W AR ahead of the front this weekend, with some showers possible. Will hold PoPs just below mentionable at this time, but an increase may be required if it appears moisture will expand this far west prior to FROPA. Apart from the series of dry cold fronts to end the week, generally quiet weather is forecast through the long term, with no hazardous weather expected. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1002 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025 VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. Expect some passing high cloud. Short term models still forecast low clouds and fog to stay south of the Ouachitas and away from KMLC and KFSM. Removed sct mention of low cloud at KFSM. Sfc winds will increase by midday out of the south to southwest with gusts 20 to 25 kts across E OK and far NW AR. Lacy && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 46 33 61 42 / 0 0 0 0 FSM 49 31 61 40 / 0 0 0 0 MLC 49 33 61 42 / 0 0 0 0 BVO 46 29 62 40 / 0 0 0 0 FYV 48 32 58 41 / 0 0 0 0 BYV 45 32 58 43 / 0 0 0 0 MKO 46 32 60 42 / 0 0 0 0 MIO 43 32 57 41 / 0 0 0 0 F10 48 33 62 42 / 0 0 0 0 HHW 51 31 60 40 / 0 0 0 0 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...43 LONG TERM....43 AVIATION...30