####018009837#### FXUS63 KMPX 090510 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 1110 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Strong system Tuesday to bring an intense and narrow band of heavy snow. The rain/snow line looks to setup over the Twin Cities metro, with a strong snowfall gradient expected from southwest to northeast across the metro. - Strong winds are expected Tuesday evening southwest of the low track, with gusts of 40-50 mph possible south I-94 in Minnesota - Another round of light snow is possible late Thursday into Friday, primarily for western and southern Minnesota, with only minor accumulations expected. - Very cold temperatures settle in by this weekend with wind chills approaching advisory criteria Friday night and Saturday night. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 417 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025 Latest water vapor imagery highlights a train of shortwaves on track to impact the Upper Midwest over the next several days. The first is currently moving across Minnesota and the International border with Canada that will produce a quick hit of snow this evening. Current observations across western & central Minnesota reveal decreased visibilities tied to the ongoing light snowfall. Lowest visibilities are between 1SM & 2SM that will move eastward through the course of the evening. The heaviest snow will fall north of our forecast area, but 1 to 2" along central MN into NW WI with lighter amounts, half inch to an inch, forecast elsewhere. Temperatures will warm through the evening. Highs today will likely occur just before midnight, in the upper 10s or lower 20s, as WAA ramps up ahead of Tuesday's Winter Storm. Forecast soundings support patchy freezing drizzle overnight as the low-mid levels dry out & lose cloud ice while the near-sfc layer remains saturated. This is typical of a drizzle sounding - but sub freezing temperatures will support a light glaze of ice possible for those impacted. What we know about Tuesday's Winter Storm: A band of heavy snow is likely along & to the north of Interstate 94 (I-94) Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night. There is increasing confidence that accumulating snow will reach into the Twin Cities metro, but a sharp gradient is forecast between several inches of snow and little if any. There is also high confidence we'll see a several hour period of freezing drizzle/drizzle south of I-94 for location impacted by the dry slow Tuesday evening. We've opted to upgrade our Winter Storm Watch to a plethora of Winter Weather Advisories along & just south of I-94. Our Winter Storm Warnings will be along & just north of I-94 for locations where they will remain all snow. What we don't know for Tuesday's Winter Storm: the finer details that ultimately impact the gradient between little snow & several inches. Current forecast splits the Twin Cities metro in half with locations in the north & east metro expecting 3-5" of snow while locations in the southwest metro may only see 1-3". The finer details are always important but much more so when they impact the core population in the Twin Cities. We do not know how much rain will fall across southern Minnesota. This is important because strong northwest winds will pick up Tuesday night and could bust up the crust on the existing snow pack & lead to ground blizzard conditions. We have coordinated with DMX & FSD to issue a Winter Storm Watch for potential of ground blizzard conditions along I-90 and back into western Minnesota Tuesday night into Wednesday. So what will happen Tuesday? Tuesday will see a potent, quick-moving Alberta Clipper exit the Canadian Rockies into the Northern Plains. The SFC low will track along interstate 94 (I-94) from the Dakotas through central MN into WI by Wednesday morning. Strong WAA will increase ahead of this system and allow temperatures to warm into the 30s across portions of western and southern Minnesota Tuesday afternoon. The biggest change over the last day is the trend back to the south/colder for most members of guidance. Certain CAMs remain north/warm but those also deepens the SFC low to 980mb, which feels too deep for a clipper-type system in this scenario. Most global solutions now match up with the ECMWF AIFS solution that has been steadfast the past few days. This scenario places more snowfall into the Twin Cities metro than previous forecasts as it tracks a 990mb low along I-94 with the heaviest snow falling just north of the track. This matches up with the conceptual model given the vast snow pack across the region that should support colder surface temperatures despite strong low level warm advection. There is still some uncertainty given how far north & intense certain CAMs are like the HRRR. Everyone in the Twin Cities should expect to see an inch or two of new snow Tuesday but they should not be surprised to see several inches of new snow, especially north and east metro. Strong winds Tuesday night may lead to potential ground blizzard conditions over W/S MN. There is uncertainty given warm temperatures & potential for FZDZ/DZ Tuesday afternoon - likely crusting over the snowpack. However, strong wind gusts over 45 MPH will likely be enough to break through the crust & loft the remaining snow pack. This is highly uncertain and ground blizzard conditions may not occur if more rain/thicker crust can build up. Overall, a busy day is in store with heavy snow, wintry mix, freezing drizzle, and strong winds on tap. Once our Tuesday system clears out, we'll be left with some gusty winds and lingering snow showers through Wednesday morning. As the low continues to pull away to the eastern Great Lakes, winds will diminish and strong northwest flow returns aloft. A weak trough looks to swing through sometime Thursday into Friday, leading to another chance of light snow. Have stuck with broad brush 30-50 PoPs and QPF on the order of a few hundredths. This event would likely be similar to ones we had over the past weekend and today with a half inch to maybe an inch of snow total when all is over. The bigger concern in the long term is the Arctic high that will settle in over the Upper Midwest. High temperatures will be in the single digits through Sunday with Saturday currently looking the coldest. Friday could end up being gusty as a surface low over Lake Superior and our incoming Canadian high approaches from the west. These winds will lead to some very cold wind chills during the day (10 to 20 below). We will be flirting with Extreme Cold headlines as apparent temperatures range from 25 to 35 below zero Friday and Saturday night. Another disturbance may skirt to our south over the weekend, but uncertainty is high at this point in time. Temperatures begin to moderate by Monday and we should see highs in 20s (above zero!) through early next week. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1042 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025 Challenging TAF forecast, with low stratus expected to persist overnight, followed by precipitation Tuesday, and strong winds with a wind shift. There is a small clearing that could bring VFR conditions to KRWF and KMKT for the next few hours, but the remaining sites should be near IFR conditions the entire TAF period from low stratus. For the rest of the night, could have some fog or light mist at times. On Tuesday, winds will be southerly ahead of the next system. This system will bring snow to KAXN, KSTC, KRNH, with a wintry mix at KMSP and KEAU. Meanwhile KRWF and KMKT could see a wintry mix changing over to rain, and then back over to snow. Later in the day, southerly winds will become west/northwest and increase as a cold front moves through. Could see gusts near 40 kts at times. KMSP... IFR ceilings expected to continue overnight night. Could have some heavy mist or light freezing drizzle at times. That should end by morning, and then expect southerly winds ahead of the next precipitation that will arrive shortly after 18Z. Could have some wintry mix / ice mix in at times, but then it should be more of a rain/snow to all snow transition in the late afternoon. Eventually northwest winds will increase in the evening and overnight hours. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ WED...MVFR/IFR. Chc -SN. Wind NW 10-15G25 kts. THU...MVFR. Chc -SN. Wind NW 5-10 kts. FRI...MVFR/SN early. VFR late. Wind NW 10-15G20 kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...Winter Weather Advisory from noon Tuesday to 6 AM CST Wednesday for Douglas-Kandiyohi-McLeod-Meeker-Pope- Stearns-Stevens-Swift-Wright. Winter Storm Warning from noon Tuesday to 6 AM CST Wednesday for Anoka-Benton-Chisago-Isanti-Kanabec-Mille Lacs- Morrison-Sherburne-Todd. Winter Storm Watch from Tuesday evening through Wednesday morning for Blue Earth-Brown-Chippewa-Faribault-Freeborn- Lac Qui Parle-Le Sueur-Martin-Nicollet-Redwood-Renville- Sibley-Waseca-Watonwan-Yellow Medicine. Winter Weather Advisory from 3 PM Tuesday to 6 AM CST Wednesday for Carver-Dakota-Goodhue-Hennepin-Ramsey-Rice- Scott-Steele-Washington. WI...Winter Storm Warning from 3 PM Tuesday to 9 AM CST Wednesday for Barron-Chippewa-Polk-Rusk. Winter Weather Advisory from 3 PM Tuesday to 9 AM CST Wednesday for Dunn-Eau Claire-Pepin-Pierce-St. Croix. && $$ DISCUSSION...BPH/Dye AVIATION...JRB ####018003688#### FXUS63 KTOP 090513 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 1113 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Warm tomorrow, then turning cold again by the end of the week into the weekend. - Dry pattern continues. No notable precipitation chances. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 218 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025 Early this afternoon, water vapor satellite imagery showed a longer wave length upper level trough across the eastern US, with a shorter wave length upper level trough shifting east across the TN Valley into GA. An upper level ridge was centered across the eastern Pacific Ocean, off the CA coast. The 18Z surface map showed a ridge of high pressure extending from the southern Great Lakes, southwest into east TX. Southerly winds on the west side of the surface ridge have eroded much of the stratus across the CWA earlier this morning. Surface temperatures were in the mid to upper 30s. Tonight through Monday: All the extended range models are in agreement with the longer wave length upper level trough remaining stationary across the eastern US through the next week. The mid and upper flow will be northwesterly across the Plains. As shorter wave length troughs round the eastern Pacific H5 ridge they will dig southeast out of western Canada across the northern Plains and Great Lake States. The DCVA ahead of these clipper systems will be located across the northern Plains and may extend southward to IA and the mid MS River Valley, so the CWA should stay dry. Expect a temperatures roller coaster. Tomorrow, with southwest-west surface winds we will experience WAA from down slope flow across eastern CO into western KS/NE. Highs temperatures will reach the mid 50s northeast to lower 60s southwest. As the shorter wave length upper troughs did southeast and amplify the longer wave length H5 trough across the eastern US, a series of cold front will push southward across the CWA. The first front passing through Tuesday night will only drop Wednesday and Thursday high temperatures down into the mid 40s to mid 50s. A stronger front will push southward across the area Thursday night brining the western fringe of an arctic airmass southward across the CWA Friday and Saturday. Highs Friday may struggle to make it to freezing along the I-70 corridor, with upper 20s expected for highs along the NE border. After overnight lows Friday night in the teens, highs on Saturday will only reach the upper 20s to lower 30s across most of the CWA, with highs in the mid 20s across the northeast counties. Sunday, The 1040mb surfacer ridge across the eastern Dakotas will build southeast across MO into the western OH River Valley. An easterly wind will continue to advect colder air westward across the CWA, with only a slight improvement in high temperatures, reaching the upper 20s to mid 30s. Monday, a slightly more zonal flow upper air pattern, along with southerly surface winds should warm high temperatures into the 40s. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1113 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025 VFR conditions will persist through the period with broken mid and high level clouds. Winds stay from the southwest into tomorrow evening, gusting around 20 kts from the day. Near the very end of the period late evening Tuesday, a cold front will switch winds to the northwest, gusting around 25 kts. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Gargan AVIATION...Reese ####018003548#### FXUS63 KEAX 090514 AFDEAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 1114 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... * Breezy conditions on Tuesday and again Wednesday create slightly elevated fire danger. * Cold front moves through the region Tuesday night into Wednesday morning with gusty northwest winds. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 313 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025 This afternoon, high pressure that resided over the area this morning is shifting eastward with modest WAA getting underway in its wake. This is allowing temperatures to rise back into the 30s to lower 40s this afternoon. WAA will continue tonight and increase tomorrow ahead of an approaching cold front with southwest winds gusting 20 to 30 mph. This strong WAA will drive highs into the mid 40s to mid 50s and lead to a slightly elevated fire weather concern. Tomorrow night a mid level trough will dig through the Upper Midwest forcing a cold front through the area. While there is a very slight chance for a light shower across north central Missouri, this frontal passage will be mainly dry. However, strong cold air advection is expected to move in behind the front with northwest winds ranging from 25 up to 40 mph late Tuesday night into Wednesday again leading to slightly elevated fire weather concerns. This will usher in a cooler but seasonable day with highs in the mid 30s to mid 40s. Surface high pressure will move into the area Wednesday night allowing winds to relax with lows in the upper teens to upper 20s. The next slight chance for precipitation arrives on Thursday as a mid level shortwave moves through the Upper Midwest. Moisture will be limited however, enough forcing may produce some very light snow across northern Missouri. Current NBM probabilities suggests 20%-40% chance of a dusting of snow north of Highway 36. Probabilities drop to only 10% of receiving an inch of snow for extreme northern Missouri along to MO/IA border...consequently, any accumulations are expected to be very light at this time. Also, the general trend has been shifting this system northward (lower snow probabilities). This shortwave will force another cold front through the area Thursday. Highs across northern Missouri where the front will pass earlier in the day will be in the low to mid 30s but will rise into the low 50s across the southwestern CWA where the front will pass later in the day. CAA will continue through Thursday night into Friday keeping highs in the mid 20s to mid 30s. Surface high pressure will build into the area Friday night before another upper trough moves from the Northern Plains into the Midwest Saturday. Models at this time keep precipitation associated with this feature north of the area but will need to be monitored. This system will bring a reinforcing cold shot holding highs in the upper teens to near freezing. Surface high pressure is anticipated to build back into the area for the second half of the weekend with highs in the 20s to mid 30s. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1106 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025 VFR conditions through the period. Breezy southwest winds through the period, with strong cold front approaching from the north after 06Z Wednesday. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...73 AVIATION...BT