####018005934#### FXUS64 KEPZ 130505 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 1005 PM MST Fri Dec 12 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1005 PM MST Fri Dec 12 2025 - Dry conditions with well above normal temperatures continue Saturday. - A back door cold front will bring some breezy conditions Sunday morning and afternoon, producing wind chills in the 20s and 30s. West slopes of mountains will see the strongest gusts, up to 30 mph.Temperatures cool about 10-15 degrees for Sunday and Monday. - Near record highs possible again by the middle of next week while precipitation chances hold near zero. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1005 PM MST Fri Dec 12 2025 In the big picture, the persistent upper ridge over the eastern Pacific and Desert Southwest will continue through most of this forecast period. In the short term various models do show the high level moisture over SoCal and western Arizona to move over the CWA next 4-8 hours, likely giving broken cirrus. 850mb temps unchanged for Saturday from today's record/near-record heat, but high clouds likely will cut a couple of degrees off for Saturday. Only significant feature to talk about is the moderate back-door cold front moving in late Saturday night and Sunday. Decent wind gust potential, especially along west slopes of mountains early Sunday morning to mid day from Dona Ana County east, and then out over Luna and Hidalgo Counties Sunday afternoon. Sunday morning wind chill temperatures could briefly drop down around 25-40 deg. As winds reach the Lordsburg Playa area Sunday afternoon, blowing dust could also develop along I-10 west of Lordsburg. Other item to watch is how much stratus/fog/drizzle can develop along the eastern upslope areas of the Sacs. Looking at model low-level RH and HREF cloud cover would suggest this exact set up Sunday morning into the afternoon, but as of yet the NBM/grids do not reflect this. Will suggest next shift possibly modify this. High temps Sunday/Monday much cooler than the recent several days, though temps still above normal. Sunday highs could be a bit lower than what the various MOS outputs show. Weak upper low does cut through the ridge and over the area Monday night and Tuesday, perhaps with just an increase of higher clouds. Rest of the week..Tuesday through Friday...upper ridge continues though very strong jet entering the NW U.S. will flatten the ridge out into zonal flow over our area. Temperatures warm back up to well above normal, and in fact by Wed-Fri, daily highs could be reaching record levels again. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1005 PM MST Fri Dec 12 2025 VFR through the period with SKC. Increasing SCT-BKN250 after 09Z. Surface winds variable AOB 7 knots overnight, becoming west 7-10 knots after 18Z. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1010 AM MST Fri Dec 12 2025 Warm and dry for one more day with near record highs on Saturday. Min RH's will generally be in the teens. A back door cold front moves through Sat night with gusty east winds over 30 mph on favored east slopes and near the playa. RH's will jump up into the 20s and 30s for a couple days behind the front with high temperatures about 10 degrees cooler. A warmup is expected starting Tuesday and will bring a return to near record highs and RH's in the teens by the middle of the week. Poor to low end fair vent rates for the next couple of days. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 73 41 62 38 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 69 35 55 32 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 71 35 60 33 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 70 33 60 31 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 53 25 47 28 / 0 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 67 36 60 36 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 69 38 60 36 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 73 37 63 35 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 70 38 62 37 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 70 43 60 40 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 73 34 56 29 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 75 38 63 36 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 65 37 53 35 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 73 38 62 36 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 71 38 59 35 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 71 41 60 39 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 69 28 60 26 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 72 32 63 30 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 73 39 62 38 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 67 31 59 27 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 69 27 56 31 / 0 0 0 0 Mescalero 64 28 57 30 / 0 0 0 0 Timberon 62 27 53 28 / 0 0 0 0 Winston 68 28 57 29 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 70 38 60 36 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 69 26 60 26 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 70 26 63 28 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 71 35 60 33 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 73 28 69 29 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 71 24 65 23 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 70 39 59 37 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 73 38 63 36 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 72 36 60 34 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 75 38 61 34 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 71 43 60 39 / 0 0 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...17-Hefner ####018004847#### FXUS63 KFGF 130508 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 1108 PM CST Fri Dec 12 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Arctic air continues to pour into the area this afternoon and evening, with dangerously cold wind chills through Sunday. For tonight, wind chills will fall as low as 45 below zero. && .UPDATE... Issued at 941 PM CST Fri Dec 12 2025 Very cold wind chills continue with widespread -30s and -40s across eastern North Dakota and northwest Minnesota. No changes to headlines on this update as the current setup is working nicely based on observations. Winds will continue to remain elevated through the evening and overnight hours. UPDATE Issued at 653 PM CST Fri Dec 12 2025 The Extreme Cold Warning has been expanded to include Grand Forks and Polk Counties due to observations hovering around -40 in both counties. The overlap of extremely cold air temperatures and elevated wind speeds should allow this to continue and expand over the next 1-3 hours mainly. With winds diminishing towards midnight, wind chills may rise above the -40 threshold, but for simplicity the Extreme Cold Warning continues with it through 18z. All counties go to a Cold Weather Advisory thereon. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 333 PM CST Fri Dec 12 2025 ...Synopsis... North to northwest flow prevails today through Sunday, allowing Arctic air to settle into the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest. Afternoon high temperatures for Saturday and Sunday will be well below average, with single digits below zero on Saturday and single digits to teens above zero on Sunday. The warmup on Sunday will arrive much later in the day, however, as warm air advection increases along west winds. This will also facilitate much warmer temperatures heading into next week a strong low to mid level jet brings downslope conditions into the Northern Rockies, then advects the warmer air mass into the Northern Plains. By Tuesday, guidance is bringing 850 mb temps well into the 5-10C range. At this time, surface temperatures are forecast to reach well into the 30s; however, there remains a bit of uncertainty regarding how the warmer air mass reacts to the relatively fresh snow pack. It is possible that we see the development of stratus and/or fog as a result, which would potentially limit the upper bounds of high temperatures. Following this warmup, there is moderate agreement between the ensembles regarding the development of a relatively strong upper low and clipper, thus bringing cold air back into the area heading into Wednesday evening. At this time, confidence is low in potential precipitation and the associated impacts. ...Dangerously Cold Wind Chills Through Sunday... Wind chill values have already fallen well below zero across much of the area, with the coldest spots to the north of Highway 2 in North Dakota, and across portions of northwest Minnesota. Wind chills of 40-45 below zero are already being observed, and are expected to continue overnight and into early Saturday morning. Surface temperatures during this period will be in the 20s below zero, with the exception of southeast North Dakota, where teens below zero are expected. Colder temperatures are expected Saturday night into Sunday, but with lower wind potential. Look for lows in the 20s below zero to near 30 below zero, with wind chills as low as 40 below. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1106 PM CST Fri Dec 12 2025 VFR conditions will persist with northwesterly winds between 7-13 knots. Gusts may develop tomorrow afternoon but should remain below 20 knots for the most part. A lower cloud deck may push down from Canada and impact BJI, although it is unclear if it will get as far south as BJI and if coverage will be large enough to produce MVFR to IFR ceilings. For this reason, SCT025 was added for BJI. All other TAF sites will remain VFR. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...Extreme Cold Warning until noon CST Saturday for NDZ006>008- 015-016-026-027-054. Cold Weather Advisory from noon Saturday to noon CST Sunday for NDZ006>008-015-016-026-027-054. Cold Weather Advisory until noon CST Sunday for NDZ014-024- 028>030-038-039-049-052-053. MN...Extreme Cold Warning until noon CST Saturday for MNZ001-004- 005-007>009-013>017-022>024. Cold Weather Advisory from noon Saturday to noon CST Sunday for MNZ001-004-005-007>009-013>017-022>024. Cold Weather Advisory until noon CST Sunday for MNZ002-003-006- 027>032-040. && $$ UPDATE...Perroux DISCUSSION...Lynch AVIATION...Perroux ####018003498#### FXUS64 KAMA 130509 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 1109 PM CST Fri Dec 12 2025 ...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1038 PM CST Fri Dec 12 2025 - A cold front will provide cooler temperatures to end the weekend. - The chance of impactful weather over the next 7 days is very low. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Sunday night) Issued at 1038 PM CST Fri Dec 12 2025 As we enter this mid December weekend, another cold front is set to enter the Panhandles. This front currently stalled over the Midwest region to central Great Plains, will resume its progression through the day and pass south of the region by later this afternoon. Ahead of the front, compressional heating may help a few spots across the southern Panhandle to top out around 70 degrees, but most highs today will be in the 60s. Breezy north-northeast winds will be left behind the front, sustained at 10-20 mph with gusts up to 30-35 mph. This will aid cold air advection, especially this evening and overnight when lows will bottom out in the teens and 20s. We may need to keep an eye out for patchy areas of fog leading into Sunday morning, when models show a modest plume of low-level moisture seeping into the area. Forecast soundings suggest this may just end up being a low-level stratus cloud deck, but localized areas reaching sfc saturation could still create fog wherever stronger radiational cooling can occur. Overall confidence in fog occurring is low at this time. Sunday will be notably cooler, feeling much more like December with highs in the 40s to mid 50s. A tightening pressure gradient will develop over the Panhandles beneath northwest flow aloft, generating southerly winds of 10-20 mph. Stronger winds in the northwest will help highs be slightly warmer in the 50s, while lingering cloud cover over the central to eastern Panhandles has medium chances (40-70%) to keep highs in the 30s all day. Sunday night will be another cool one with low temperatures below freezing. Harrel && .LONG TERM... (Monday through next Friday) Issued at 1038 PM CST Fri Dec 12 2025 Our quiet pattern, lacking much if any impactful weather headlines, persists through next week. Long range models show an open wave trough being ushered over Mexico through mid week, leading to upper level ridging stretching over the Panhandles. A warming trend will resume accordingly, as afternoon highs return to above average for this time of year in the 60s and 70s. Guidance hints at a front arriving by Thursday, providing a short reprieve from the winter "heat". Unfortunately, winter appears to be fighting a losing battle to end next week, as the synoptic signal from long range ensembles keeps maintaining a warmer and dry pattern for the foreseeable future. Harrel && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1038 PM CST Fri Dec 12 2025 VFR conditions expected to prevail over the next 24 hours. Winds should start out of the south around 10 kts or less through 18Z to 19Z. After that winds turn to the north behind a cold front and pick up to around 12 to 15 kts with gusts up to 20 to 25 kts. && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...38 LONG TERM....38 AVIATION...36 ####018007143#### FXUS64 KBRO 130509 AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Brownsville TX 1109 PM CST Fri Dec 12 2025 ...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1105 PM CST Fri Dec 12 2025 * Fog, mist, low stratus possible again tonight. * Warmer than normal temperatures and mainly rain-free weather will prevail through next week. * Our next best chance for rain will be on Sunday in response to a cold front; medium (40-60%) chances on Sunday. * Another chance for showers and storms will be Tuesday night into Wednesday. * Hazardous marine and coastal conditions are expected to develop on Sunday and persist through Monday in response to the cold front. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1105 PM CST Fri Dec 12 2025 The forecast period for Deep South Texas and the Lower Rio Grande Valley will continue to consist of warmer than normal temps with a couple chances for rain, though there will be many rain-free hours. Tonight will be similar to last night as far as the potential for fog, mist, and/or low stratus development. However, the thickness and coverage of any fog is not expected to be as great as last night due to slightly wider dewpoint depressions and the potential for some clouds to develop later tonight. The HREF model is indicating a general low-medium (30-60%) chance/risk for fog/mist developing across much of Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley tonight. Otherwise, expect for a quiet night under mostly clear skies and milder than normal temperatures. As highlighted earlier, much of the forecast period will be dry/rain- free. However, Sunday will feature our next best and widespread chance for showers and maybe a rumble of thunder to develop. Forecast models/ensembles continue to advertise a strong southward advancing cold front approaching the region on Sunday. This cold front is associated with an Arctic 1040-1045 mb sfc high pressure system that will be established over the Midwest U.S. As this happens, the combination of increased sfc convergence and a nearby weak shortwave trough will increase the prospects for showers (maybe an isolated thunder or two) to develop over the region on Sunday. We've maintained medium (40-60%) chances for showers across Deep South Texas on Sunday. Rain chances diminish from north to south as the cold front sweeps through the region and shifts into northeastern Mexico Sunday evening/night. Tuesday night into Wednesday is another period that we have to monitor for the potential for showers and thunderstorms. During this time period, a return flow out of the south on the backside of a broad sfc high pressure system centered over the Southeastern U.S. will result in increased moisture and warm air advection (WAA). Increased atmospheric moisture content interacting with a nearby shortwave trough or weak frontal boundary will result in increased prospects for showers and thunderstorms Tuesday night into Wednesday. Currently, we only have low grade (20-30%) PoPs along and east of IH-69E. Again, we will continue to monitor these trends in the days ahead. Through the middle parts of next week, an up, down, up (roller- coaster) temperature pattern will take place. However, late next week into next weekend, the cold and wintry weather across the northern U.S. begins to retreat northward into Canada as flat ridging (low amplitude 500 mb pattern) envelopes a vast majority of the Lower 48, marking a major large scale weather pattern change towards the milder, less wintry side. For us here in Deep South Texas, this means a stabilized, warmer than normal pattern will solidly be in place with less risk of cool frontal passages and less fluctuations in temperatures. Overall, temps will average out warmer than normal for the balance of the forecast period with daytime highs in the 80s most locations each day except for Sunday through Tuesday. Ahead of the cold front on Sunday, high temperatures will top out in the 70s most places (lower 80s along parts of the RGV). Monday is progged to be the coolest day of the forecast period with daytime highs struggling to make it out of the 60s. Finally, on Tuesday, temperatures will begin to moderate as daytime highs are expected to climb back into the 70s most places. Wednesday through at least next Saturday, above normal temperatures will be driven by a 585-588 mb ridge. Overnight low temperatures will mainly be in the 60s during the forecast period. Sunday night into Monday will be the coolest with overnight lows in the 40s across the Northern Ranchlands and 50s along the RGV. Monday night into Tuesday, overnight lows will be in the 50s most places. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1105 PM CST Fri Dec 12 2025 Through 06z Sunday....VFR conditions will by and large be in place through the 06z TAF cycle. However tonight, the main concern will be for the potential for fog, mist, and/or low stratus to develop again tonight. The latest GOES East Nighttime Fog, Microphysics and Infrared satellite images revealed low stratus develop over parts of the region. The latest obs had dewpoint depressions ranging between 1-4F degrees (slightly wider than last night). Given the situation, it appears that any fog or mist will not be as thick or spatially widespread as last night. Any fog, mist, or low stratus that develops will have the capabilities of producing MVFR- LIFR cigs/vsbys. Any fog, mist, low stratus will burn off Saturday morning giving way to VFR conditions. Light and variable winds will persist through tonight. During the day on Saturday, southeast winds will return with speeds between 5- 10 kts. && .MARINE... Issued at 1105 PM CST Fri Dec 12 2025 Favorable marine conditions with low to moderate winds and seas will persist through Saturday night. On Sunday, marine conditions deteriorate with Small Craft Exercise Caution (SCEC) to Small Craft Advisory (SCA) conditions developing in response the aforementioned cold front. These conditions will persist through Monday/Monday evening before showing some improvements and a return to low to moderate seas and winds. There will be near day- to-day chances for showers and storms over the Gulf Waters tonight through Wednesday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 82 68 83 68 / 0 10 10 10 HARLINGEN 84 64 84 63 / 0 10 10 10 MCALLEN 86 68 85 67 / 0 0 10 10 RIO GRANDE CITY 85 64 84 65 / 0 0 0 10 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 76 68 76 69 / 0 30 30 10 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 81 66 81 65 / 0 20 20 10 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...23-Evbuoma LONG TERM....23-Evbuoma AVIATION...23-Evbuoma ####018006562#### FXUS63 KOAX 130509 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 1109 PM CST Fri Dec 12 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Some flurries and light snow may linger into early this evening, mainly in northeast Nebraska. A few slick spots could develop, but generally expect minimal impacts. - Snow expected across northeast Nebraska and western Iowa on late tonight into Saturday (60-90% chance). Expect slick, snow-covered roads near the South Dakota border, where 2-4" of snow is expected and a Winter Weather Advisory is in effect. - Temperatures turn much colder through Sunday before warming again by Monday. Saturday night will be the coldest night, with lows in the single digits above and below 0 and wind chills approaching 20 below in some spots. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 305 PM CST Fri Dec 12 2025 Some flurries and light snow were falling across portions of the area today as some weak shortwave energy was passing through. DOT webcams in northeast NE showed a few spots where a dusting of snow was present on roadways, but overall shouldn't be too impactful. Guidance is in pretty good agreement that this snow comes to an end by early this evening with maybe 1-2 tenths of an inch of accumulation. A stronger shortwave will then move in late tonight/early Saturday and lead to a band of heavier snow across SD and IA, with the southwest edge clipping northeast NE. As the wave moves in, a strong low to mid level frontogenesis/frontolysis "couplet" will develop in the area with some suggestions that slantwise instability will be in place and could lead to some enhanced banding somewhere within the main snow band. Guidance today has generally been consistent with placement of the main band, with the heaviest portion (3-4+") favored to stretch from between Sioux Falls and Sioux City down toward Des Moines, largely outside of our forecast area. Still, it looks like northeastern portions of the forecast area could still see 2-3+" where a Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect. Immediately southwest of that, we're still expecting a sharp cutoff in snow amounts, with potential for slick, snow-covered roads on one side of a county and little to no snow on the other side. Where exactly this cutoff is remains one of the main questions with this system, as models are still wobbling a little bit on that. For now, consensus suggests places like Omaha and Norfolk will see maybe a dusting at most with an inch or 2 just 30 miles to the northeast. One more thing on the snow is that model soundings in/near the primary snow band show a fairly deep dendritic growth zone with cold air moving in, so that snow should be quite fluffy and could add up quickly. However, you don't have to go very far southwest to see a warm nose at around 700 mb (not nearly warm enough to melt the snow) that will limit that DGZ depth and reduce snow amounts a bit (though it'll still be fairly fluffy). Finally, given the fluffier snow there's always a concern with how easily it can blow and drift, but with wind gusts of around 15-20 mph, that shouldn't be too impactful for us. One other thing to mention for Saturday is that a few pieces of guidance hint at freezing drizzle potential near the NE/KS/MO border area Saturday morning and early afternoon. The RAP has generally been the most aggressive with this signal, showing strong low level warm air advection and saturation to around 1 km agl. However, most guidance (including the latest RAP) suggests we won't quite be able to saturate all the way to the surface. Therefore, thinking those areas will end up staying dry, but still give it maybe a 10% chance of seeing a light glaze of ice in some areas down there. The precipitation is expected to exit Saturday afternoon with surface high pressure quickly building in behind it. This should lead to decreasing cloud cover and fairly light winds overnight, setting up for a very cold Sunday morning. Low temperatures are expected to range from around -10 across far northeast NE into west- central IA to 5 above toward Jefferson County, NE. Despite the expected light winds, any small puff of wind could lead to some wind chills approaching -20 in the coldest areas. It's not looking widespread or long enough in duration for a Cold Weather Advisory, but regardless of advisory, it looks cold! It will remain cold on Sunday with highs in the teens to mid 20s, but we should see southerly flow return on the back side of the high by the end of the day. In addition, upper level ridging will start to edge into the area Monday, with a significant warmup to start the week. Expect highs mostly in the 40s Monday, followed by mid 40s to mid 50s Tuesday and Wednesday. The ridge will start to flatten out toward mid-week, but we should stay mild into the weekend. Guidance is in decent agreement that we see a system pass by to our north sometime late Wednesday/Thursday, though still lots of spread regarding southern extent of any associated precip, so forecast confidence on that is quite low. Looking longer term, temperatures look to remain above average heading into next week. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1044 PM CST Fri Dec 12 2025 A few bands of flurries/light snow are moving across the area this evening before a persistent band of snowfall pushes into northeast Nebraska and western Iowa overnight. While the bulk of heavier snow should stay north of KOFK and KOMA, expect conditions to diminish to MVFR, with brief periods of IFR possible, across all three terminals tonight. The band of light to moderate snow is expected to graze KOFK by 09-12Z and KOMA by 10-13Z before exiting by late morning. A brief period of freezing drizzle is possible at KOMA (11-14Z), though confidence is too low to include in the TAFs at this time. Confidence is low (20%) in snow reaching KLNK. Ceilings will break up and improve back to VFR Saturday afternoon. North- northeasterly winds will continue at 8-12 kts. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST Saturday for NEZ011-012- 015. IA...Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST Saturday for IAZ043. && $$ DISCUSSION...CA AVIATION...Wood