####018006195#### FXUS65 KPUB 160655 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 1255 AM MDT Sun Aug 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Widespread showers and thunderstorms continue across southern Colorado today. A couple could become strong to severe today with very strong winds, large hail and heavy rainfall. - One last day of widespread showers and thunderstorms on Monday before drier and warmer conditions arrive for mid to late week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 1229 AM MDT Sun Aug 16 2026 Currently...radar imagery shows popcorn showers and thunderstorms from the Eastern Mountains, east across the Plains early this morning. The main risks will be spotty lightning and brief heavy downpours for those lucky enough to be hit by the convection. This activity will likely continue through daybreak across Eastern Colorado. Temperatures remain mild, with mostly 60s across the Plains, and 50s for the San Luis Valley. Today and tonight...no change to the upper level pattern with high pressure to the southeast and broad westerly flow across southern Colorado. Another embedded upper wave in the flow will transit across the region this afternoon and evening leading to another round of thunderstorms for parts of the area. Flow at the surface will remain southeasterly today, keeping dewpoints in the upper 50s to lower 60s across the Plains. PWAT values remain elevated as well, and CAPE values near 1000 to 1200 j/kg will be present this afternoon. 0-6km shear looks to increase slightly to 25-30 kts by this afternoon. This will lead to the potential for a few strong to severe storms as they move off the mountains and across the Plains. Stronger cells will be capable of heavy rainfall, wind gusts in excess of 60 to 70 mph and 1.5 inch diameter hail. CAM guidance suggests a couple of rounds of thunderstorms may be possible; the first through the afternoon, and a second round with outflow along the Highway 50 corridor this evening. A Flash Flood Watch is in effect for the Aspen Acres burn scar with thunderstorms expected this afternoon. Other areas may need to be added as confidence in heavier thunderstorms grows with the early morning cycles. Showers and thunderstorms will likely linger through the overnight hours as the upper wave exits to the east. Temperatures today will remain mild, with 80s across the lower elevations. Overnight lows will fall off into the 60s by morning. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 1229 AM MDT Sun Aug 16 2026 Models are finally in agreement with the evolution of the upper pattern, with the GFS trending towards the ECMWF and Canadian solutions. Still have a feeling the NBM guidance is slow to respond for afternoon temperatures by later this week. Monday...the upper high over the southeast states will retrograde west towards Texas, with upper ridging starting to build north across Colorado. One last upper wave will drop southeast across the state Monday afternoon which will lead to shower and thunderstorm development for the Eastern Mountains and Plains. PWAT values begin to dry out as the upper ridge build, which will impact rainfall rates. Southeasterly flow on the Plains will keep dewpoints elevated and shear weaken overhead with the building ridge. Thunderstorms look to develop along the Eastern Mountains by early afternoon, and spread southeast across the Plains through the evening. Locally heavy rainfall, lightning, wind gusts to 50 mph and half inch hail will likely accompany stronger storms. We will continue to monitor the need for Flash Flood Watches for area burn scars. This activity will spread south and east during the evening, and clear the Plains by Tuesday morning. Temperatures will remain mild on Monday with highs in the 80s to near 90 by the Kansas border. Tuesday through Sunday...the upper ridge will develop into a strong upper high centered across Utah and Colorado through this period. Drier air will spread across the region, and much drier conditions expected through the period. Daily shower and thunderstorm activity is forecast to develop across the Mountains, and spread east into the I-25 corridor through the evenings before dissipating overnight. Afternoon high temperatures will climb back through the 90s on Tuesday across the Plains. A system passing well to the north will send a cold front for Wednesday with a brief cool down along with the best chances for showers and thunderstorms during this period. Model guidance really cranks the high overhead from Thursday through Sunday. NBM temperature guidance has warmed a bit, but still lower than ensemble and deterministic guidance. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1056 PM MDT Sat Aug 15 2026 KCOS and KPUB: VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours. Dry conditions are expected to prevail tonight and through tomorrow morning. Another round of afternoon and evening storms is expected again tomorrow though, which could bring more periods of heavy rain, gusty outflow winds, lightning, and periods of reduced visibility. Otherwise, winds will remain relatively light, around and less than 10 knots, outside of thunderstorms, with mid to high level clouds persisting to varying degrees through this TAF period. KALS: VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours. Winds are anticipated to remain relatively light, around and less than 10 knots, through this TAF period. Otherwise, mid to high level clouds will increase tomorrow, with dry conditions expected. With that said, impact from a shower or storm can not be ruled out tomorrow afternoon, which could bring lightning and gusty outflow winds. Confidence in this though is very low (less than 10%). && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flash Flood Watch from noon MDT today through this evening for COZ079-080-086. && $$ SHORT TERM...MOZLEY LONG TERM...MOZLEY AVIATION...SIMCOE ####018004476#### FXUS64 KMAF 160655 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 155 AM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 144 AM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026 - Isolated to scattered storms are in store this afternoon/evening over western portions of the region, while storm chances decrease on Monday. Some storms may produce strong winds, frequent lightning, and heavy rainfall leading to localized flash flooding. - Above normal temperatures persist through next week. Some locations will be near or above 100 degrees. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday afternoon) Issued at 144 AM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026 Current satellite imagery shows an upper-level low entering southeastern Brewster County bringing light rain showers. Meanwhile, a ridge of high pressure is centered over the Ark-La-Tex region. The aforementioned low is expected to shift northwest throughout the morning and afternoon. As a result, more isolated to scattered showers/storms are in store this afternoon and early evening across portions of the Big Bend, Davis, Guadalupe Mountains, and far West Texas. Strong winds, frequent lightning, and locally heavy rainfall will continue to be the main hazards with the strongest storms, thanks to inverted-V profiles and slightly higher mean climatological Precipitable Water values (PWATs) via CAMs. Slightly cooler temperatures are anticipated across the region as the low brings thicknesses down from yesterday. Highs are forecast to range from the mid to upper 90s for most locations, with the exception of highs in the upper 80s across the higher terrain. Tonight, the upper low transitions into portions of far West Texas, supplying a very low chance (< 15%) of light rain showers. Lows are expected to be in the mid 60s to mid 70s for most. Monday, the upper ridge of high pressure becomes the main feature moving forward, resulting in much drier weather and warmer temperatures. Isolated storms (10-20%) stick around across areas in/near the higher terrain and far West Texas as the low will continue to shift westward. Warmer high temperatures in the mid 90s to low 100s are on tap areawide. Lamberson && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 144 AM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026 The forecast remains unchanged from the previous package. A hot and dry weather pattern is in store for next week as an upper-level ridge takes hold over the region. Ensemble guidance is in good agreement with the ridge staying over the region through at least next weekend. Similar high temperatures each day are forecast in the mid 90s to low 100s for most locations. Spots along the river valleys look to range from 105 to 110. Lows in the upper 60s to mid 70s can be expected each night. Cannot rule out an isolated storm or two (< 10%) over the Davis and Guadalupe Mountains each afternoon due to upslope flow, though sinking motion under the ridge will hinder convective initiation. Lamberson && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1225 AM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026 South/southeast winds at terminals throughout the period, with gusts up to 20 knots and higher through the afternoon and early evening. A very low (<10%) chance of isolated showers/storms is present this afternoon through evening, mainly for terminals on the Upper Trans Pecos. Brief heavy rainfall, lightning, small hail, and strong and variable winds are expected to be the main impacts from any storms. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 100 73 101 73 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 98 72 98 72 / 10 0 10 0 Dryden 99 75 99 73 / 10 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 96 73 97 72 / 10 10 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 89 68 89 68 / 20 10 20 0 Hobbs 97 70 97 69 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 88 61 90 61 / 30 20 20 0 Midland Intl Airport 98 73 98 73 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 97 74 98 73 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 98 74 99 73 / 0 0 0 0 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...11 LONG TERM....11 AVIATION...94 ####018005491#### FXUS64 KMRX 160656 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 256 AM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 236 AM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026 - Very hot Heat Index's continue today and Monday, especially south and central valley areas. Then it will remain on the hot side through the week but likely a bit less oppressive. - Next week, best chance for showers and storms will be Monday with some possibly being strong to severe with drier weather expected midweek. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 236 AM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026 The mid/upper level ridge will retrograde and flatten out tomorrow, keeping the MCS activity across the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes. This shift in the ridge should bring in slightly drier air, with PW values falling to around 1.5 inches. Forecast soundings also indicate a stronger cap suggesting less afternoon convective development compared to recent days. A few isolated showers or thunderstorms remain possible across southwest VA and the TN mountains. With fewer clouds and a lower rain chance, diurnal heating will allow temperatures to climb into the 90s for most locations. Although boundary layer mixing should lower afternoon dewpoints somewhat into the lower to middle 70s. Heat Index values of 105+ degrees are still expected across the central and southern TN Valley. These conditions can lead to heat related illness, especially for those spending extended time outdoors. Limit strenuous activity during the hottest part of the day, drink plenty of water, and take frequent breaks in air conditioning or shade. On Sunday night, some CAMs indicate remnant MCS convection moving across West Virginia, potentially clipping portions of southwest Virginia. Given the overnight timing, the severe threat looks limited. Monday will see Heat Index values within the ballpark of what we've experienced this weekend. There's a chance that the boundary layer mixing on Monday brings in lower dew points and the humidity is not technically Heat ADvisory criteria... But it's still going to be hot. Will go ahead and extend the Heat Advisory through Monday for one more day. A shortwave trough and surface cold front will move through Kentucky Monday morning, sparking off convection as the system approaches the Plateau during the afternoon. The air mass ahead of the front should remain capped into the early afternoon while helping to increase instability. Some shear will also be present, particularly across northern TN and southwest VA, with the NAM showing approximately 30- 40 kt of deep layer shear. An inverted V profile, steep lapse rates, and a deep boundary layer would support strong downdrafts and damaging wind gusts. DCAPE values of 1000+ J/kg further support this concern. The RRFS depicts a fairly intense convective line moving through the area between roughly 7 PM and 11 PM. Given these factors, the potential exists for a more significant severe weather event Monday afternoon and evening, with damaging straight line winds being the primary concern. Large hail and an isolated tornado cannot be completely ruled out. Those with outdoor plans should have a reliable way to monitor changing weather conditions. The surface front will push through the area Monday night, bringing slightly cooler temperatures and lower dewpoints for Tuesday. This should end the dangerous heat potential, although temperatures will remain near normal. The ridge will continue to retrograde through the remainder of the week, resulting in a broad trough across the eastern CONUS. This pattern will increase rain chances through the week as embedded shortwaves move through the larger scale trough and the jet stream settles into the Ohio Valley. Showers and thunderstorms will therefore remain possible, with locally heavy rainfall and lightning continuing to be the primary concerns with stronger storms. Overall, the most notable hazards through the forecast will be dangerous heat through Monday, localized flooding from repeated thunderstorms, and a potentially more significant severe weather threat Monday afternoon and evening. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 236 AM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026 Dense fog once again possible at TRI very early this morning. <6SM and BKN CIG already being reported there. TYS and CHA likely to remain calm under SKC or high CIG. Later today trends dry with very low chances of showers or storms, therefore no mentioning in TAF. Rather light SW-Wly winds this afternoon at all terminals. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Chattanooga Airport, TN 98 77 99 76 / 0 0 40 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 96 76 95 73 / 0 0 70 50 Oak Ridge, TN 95 74 94 72 / 0 0 60 30 Tri Cities Airport, TN 90 71 89 69 / 10 30 60 40 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ Monday for Anderson- Bledsoe-Bradley-Hamilton-Knox-Loudon-Marion-McMinn-Meigs- Morgan-North Sevier-Northwest Blount-Northwest Monroe-Rhea- Roane-Sequatchie-West Polk. VA...NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION... AVIATION...KS ####018006728#### FXUS62 KRAH 160700 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 300 AM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... * No major changes. && .KEY MESSAGES... As of 300 AM Sunday... 1) A Heat Advisory remains in effort today for parts of the Triangle and south-central NC. 2) A Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk of severe thunderstorms across the northern half of central NC today. Damaging winds are the primary threat. 3) Hot Mon, but not as humid, with a chance of afternoon and evening storms that warrant mostly a Marginal risk of downburst wind in cntl NC 4) Heat gradually wanes through the week, with a high chance to likely probability of rain/convection Fri-Sat && .DISCUSSION... As of 300 AM Sunday... KEY MESSAGE 1... A Heat Advisory remains in effort today for parts of the Triangle and south-central NC. A Heat Advisory remains in effect today for parts of the Triangle and south-central NC. Strong heating and high dew points will push heat index values to around 103–107°F across much of the southern half of central NC and the Triangle, with locally higher values possible due to urban heat island effects. Areas of low stratus this morning could limit heating somewhat, introducing some uncertainty, but highs should still reach well into the 90s with dew points remaining in the low to mid 70s. KEY MESSAGE 2... A Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk of severe thunderstorms across the northern half of central NC today. Damaging winds are the primary threat. A Marginal (Level 1 of 5) risk for severe thunderstorms today across northern areas. The two main focus areas will include the sea breeze, and along outflows drifting southward into our northern zones later today from earlier activity moving across VA. High precipitable water values near 2 inches and moderate to high instability (SBCAPE 1500–3000 J/kg) will support scattered thunderstorms, but modest lapse rates and weak deep-layer shear will limit storm organization. Damaging winds from water-loaded downdrafts remain the primary threat through mid-evening. KEY MESSAGE 3... Hot Mon, but not as humid, with a chance of afternoon and evening storms that warrant mostly a Marginal risk of downburst wind in cntl NC A strong sub-tropical ridge centered over the lwr MS Valley in 00Z/16th 500-700 mb data will weaken while retrograding into the srn Plains through Mon. It will do so as a lead synoptic trough progresses across ern Canada and a deep cyclone digs along the wrn shore of Hudson Bay, and a series of three MCVs evident in regional radar data this morning from OH, nrn IL, and wrn KS progress ewd to esewd across the Middle Atlantic. The last of those MCVS is forecast to progress across the lwr OH Valley and cntl Appalachians Mon, then across the srn Middle Atlantic Mon evening-night. Net, 60-80 meter mid-level height falls will have resulted over cntl NC by Mon, after peaking last evening (at 00Z/16th). At the surface, an Appalachian-lee trough will extend across the srn Middle Atlantic Piedmont on Mon, then probably be overtaken by a surface cold front that will progress across the Middle Atlantic, Carolinas, and TN Valley through early Tue. While cntl NC will be solidly in the warm sector on Mon, where temperatures will be well into the 90s, to near 100 F over the Sandhills, surface dewpoints are likely to mix out into the upr 60s to lwr 70s during the afternoon. 36-48 hour back trajectories valid Mon afternoon originate where mean mixing ratios of 13-16 g/kg were present on 00Z/16th RAOBS at JAN, BMX, and BNA and where surface dewpoints were in the mid 60s to lwr 70s F Sat afternoon (versus the 17-19 g/kg mean mixing ratio values observed along the stationary front and axis of moisture pooling at GSO/MHX). As such, forecast heat index values Mon are generally 100-109 F (Advisory criteria for roughly all but the nrn Piedmont). In addition to the lower dewpoints and humidity values compared to recent days, wly mixed layer wind forecasts in the teens kts will probably yield a wly breeze that will gust to near 20 mph and which may provide some relief from the otherwise hot temperatures. Clusters of storms will probably result immediately downstream of the approaching MCV and across the Appalachians, with initially widely-scattered cells possible along the lee trough. While there is some risk for the upstream clusters to propagate ewd across the Piedmont amid 20-30 kts of 700 mb flow, uncertainties surrounding both its coverage and possibly late diurnal timing (mostly during the evening) suggest severe wind risk may ultimately be of the Marginal variety in cntl NC. KEY MESSAGE 4... Heat gradually wanes through the week, with a high chance to likely probability of rain/convection Fri-Sat The sub-tropical ridge will further retrograde into the Southwest through the week, while a broad trough will become established across much of the ern US. Related falling heights and increasingly moist, swly flow aloft downstream of the trough will favor both less hot temperatures and also a high chance to likely probability of rain/convection by Fri-Sat, after a dry mid-week. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 300 AM Sunday... Patchy stratus ongoing attm across central NC will see slow rise in cigs to VFR later this morning. VFR conditions will continue this afternoon and evening with the exception of invof scattered showers/storms after 20Z today, with highest confidence around RDU/RWI between 21z and 03z. After 00z Mon, scattered late-day showers and storms are possible again Mon, with the better chances then shifting to just south and southeast areas for Tue-Thu. Outside of storms, generally VFR conditions are expected, although a few hours of patchy early- morning sub-VFR fog/stratus may occur each day, with the highest chances in areas that see rain. && .CLIMATE... Record High Temperatures: August 17: KRDU: 99/1997 KFAY: 104/1954 August 18: KFAY: 98/1988 Record High Minimum Temperatures: August 16: KGSO: 75/2016 KRDU: 76/2007 KFAY: 78/2005 August 17: KGSO: 75/2010 KRDU: 76/2024 KFAY: 78/2007 August 18: KGSO: 75/2017 KRDU: 77/1995 KFAY: 78/2021 && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT today for NCZ025-040>042- 073>077-083>086-088-089. && $$ DISCUSSION...np/MWS AVIATION...np