####018005305#### FXUS64 KLIX 250456 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 1156 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 907 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024 Earlier cloud cover over the northern half of the area has dissipated as expected. Hourly temperature/dew point trends are tracking well at present. Guidance continues to be a rather mixed bag on fog development toward sunrise. Depending on the guidance source, it ranges from a few patches of fog to being widespread. Mention of patchy fog was already in the public forecast, and see little reason to back off of that at this time. Bottom line, no mid to late evening public forecast update anticipated at this time. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Thursday night) Issued at 236 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024 Northwesterly flow remains over our region as we reside between a shortwave ridge to our west and a modestly amplified trough east of us. With heights and thicknesses continuing to increase, temperatures have responded today with a few places exceeding the 80 degree mark. A surface front is currently over northern AL/MS and will drop southward with time toward our region. However, with the ridge upstream building in, this almost backdoor cold front will be just shy of making it into our region. Guidance has a very very modest QPF signal over our northwest CWFA this evening. Cannot rule out a sprinkle or two in that area. The main impact from the front is potential moisture pooling and fog overnight ahead of the front with the best potential along and north of the I10/12 corridor and west of I55. Went with patchy fog for now, but some patchy dense fog at times cannot be ruled out in the fog favored locations. Going into Thursday the pattern transitions just a bit. H5 flow will evolve to a more active southwesterly flow as an amplifying upper trough moves east and suppresses the upper ridge down into the Gulf of Mexico. Despite being suppressed, our heights and thicknesses will continue to gradually rise and again will continue our warming trend through the end of the short term period. (Frye) && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Tuesday night) Issued at 236 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024 A large scale trough will reside across the Rockies and western half of the US. A modest ridge will remain in place across the east as the long term period begins, leaving our region in an active southwesterly flow aloft. H5 impulses will ride over the ridge from the southwest to the northern plains and Cornbelt region. This will help push yet another cold front toward our region, but as the upper level support moves downstream and the front becomes parallel to the mean flow, the front will stall across the ArkLaTex region keeping most of the rain with it just to our northwest this weekend. Temperatures look to remain a few degrees above average through much of this time as well. Going into the new workweek, another H5 impulse begins to amplify over the high plains, which will send the front closer to our region. Finally by this point the front may start to get close enough for POPs Monday afternoon with the best potential across the northern and western tier. A strengthening upper ridge by the end of the forecast period will help stall this front again just to our north and the POPs/QPF associated with this feature may remain north of the area. (Frye) && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1150 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024 Currently VFR at all terminals. Earlier mid level clouds dissipated shortly after sunset. Main concern will be the potential for development of radiation type fog around sunrise. Where it does occur, IFR or lower conditions will be possible for a few hours. Most favored terminals would be KMCB and KGPT, but cannot rule it out entirely at most terminals. Should see rapid improvement to VFR around 14z, with only scattered cumulus beyond that point. Afternoon cloud bases will probably be around FL040, with cumulus dissipating after sunset. Threat for fog Friday morning should be less with a little more wind expected. && .MARINE... Issued at 236 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024 Mostly favorable marine conditions will continue through Thursday. Late Thursday and into the upcoming weekend winds will increase in response to a tightening of the pressure gradient between high pressure east and low pressure across the plains. Light to moderate winds and seas can be expected through the weekend and into early next week. This should lead to some headlines being needed possibly as early as Friday and into the start of the new workweek. (Frye) && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 58 82 62 82 / 0 0 0 0 BTR 62 86 67 87 / 0 0 0 0 ASD 61 83 66 83 / 0 0 0 0 MSY 65 83 69 83 / 0 0 0 0 GPT 62 81 66 79 / 0 0 0 0 PQL 59 84 64 81 / 0 0 0 0 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...RDF LONG TERM....RDF AVIATION/UPDATE...RW MARINE...RDF ####018004294#### FXUS64 KMRX 250458 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 1258 AM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 917 PM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024 The forecast for tonight generally looks to be on track. Will just make a few tweaks mainly to hourly temps and dew points as well as sky cover with this update. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Thursday) Issued at 212 PM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024 Key Messages: Skies will continue to clear into the evening, with possibly patchy fog early in the morning. Discussion: Rain has moved well east of the mountains today leaving behind it sunnier skies and a shallow cumulus field in its wake. With more solar radiation making it to the surface temperatures are well on their way to get right around seasonal normals this afternoon. Heading into the overnight hours expect the skies to continue to clear out letting temperatures drop about 10 degrees colder than last night. We could see some very patchy fog in the valleys and wind sheltered areas that don't completely dry out from the morning showers. However widespread dense fog is not expected at this time. Temperatures should be a few degrees warmer tomorrow with the continued trend of quiet skies. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 212 PM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024 Key Messages: 1. Low rain chances Friday as a warm front moves through the region. 2. Breezy southwesterly winds Friday through Saturday. Otherwise, dry and warm conditions forecast over the weekend. 3. A chance of showers and thunderstorms return early next week. Discussion: In the upper levels, a ridge is over the region on Friday. At the surface, a strong low is over Nebraska on Friday supported by a closed low aloft. The cold front with this system remains well to the west of the Mississippi River on Friday. The warm front ahead of this system will be moving through the forecast region on Friday bringing a slight chance for rain throughout the day. Southwesterly flow will increase bringing WAA and winds will be gusty by Friday afternoon mainly in the higher elevations and the southern Tennessee Valley where gusts will be in the 20 to 30 mph range. Dew points will creep into the 50s by Friday afternoon but instability will likely be too low for thunder. Saturday and Sunday look dry with the cold front from the aforementioned system stalling and weakening near the Mississippi River. Ridging and high pressure will be over the Southeast and our region. Breezy southerly winds will continue Friday night and Saturday. Gusts may be borderline advisory criteria (40 mph) Friday night in the higher elevations and foothills of the East Tennessee Mountains with a wind direction favorable for downslope wind enhancement. Monday and Tuesday, a low will be moving through the Great Lakes with a healthy trough extending through the Midwest, Ohio Valley and into the Lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast. The cold front will move through the region with the best chance for showers and storms Monday night and Tuesday (for now). && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1250 AM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024 Only adjustment from previous TAF was to throw mention of fog in a tempo group given low confidence. TRI still seems to be primary site for concern of reduced visibility through the morning. Recent sfc obs suggest dewpoints in the upper 30s to lower 40s creeping into SW VA and NE TN. Otherwise, quiet weather is expected with light winds. Some high clouds will advect into the region for the latter half of the cycle. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Chattanooga Airport, TN 78 58 78 63 / 0 10 10 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 75 52 74 61 / 0 10 20 0 Oak Ridge, TN 76 52 74 61 / 0 10 20 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 70 47 70 55 / 0 0 20 10 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM... LONG TERM....McD AVIATION...KRS ####018004445#### FXUS64 KMEG 250458 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1158 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 932 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024 A stalled front extends from north MS through central AR into eastern OK this evening. Surface high pressure is nudging in from the Ohio Valley. Light NNE winds are advecting in dry air with dewpoints in the 30s and 40s across most of the area. Skies will be mostly clear for most of the night with lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s. Some showers may push into east AR late but most of the precip will hold off until after daybreak. The stalled front will lift north as a warm front on Friday with scattered to numerous showers and a few embedded thunderstorms developing across the Mid-South. && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 300 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024 A warm front will slowly approach the Mid-South from the southwest on Thursday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible on Thursday. Increased cloud cover and rainfall will hold temperatures down by several degrees, especially over eastern Arkansas. Once the warm front moves north of the region on Friday, above normal temperatures will prevail through the weekend. Additional showers and thunderstorms are expected for Saturday and Sunday with the greatest chance of rain remaining west of the Mississippi River. Thunderstorm chances will increase across all the Midsouth by Monday, focused along a Pacific cold front and aided by an upper level low pressure system. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Tuesday) Issued at 300 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024 Skies are sunny across the Mid-South this afternoon with temperatures ranging from the lower 70s to around 80 degrees. The frontal boundary that moved through north Mississippi earlier today is now draped across the central portion of the state. This front is expected to stall out across central Mississippi this evening, with dry weather for the entire Mid-South. Temperatures will be close to normal tonight with lows Thursday morning in the mid 40s to upper 50s. The front will slowly lift north on Thursday before moving into the region by late Thursday night. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to form ahead of the front and move into the Mid-South as early as Thursday morning and becoming more widespread for Thursday afternoon and evening. North of the warm front, temperatures will be a little cooler on Thursday due to increased cloud cover and the threat of rain. Highs are expected to be in the upper 60s to around 80 degrees. Once the warm front lifts north of the region on Friday, showers and thunderstorms will become less widespread and more scattered in nature. Temperatures will be warmer on Friday with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s. A Pacific cold front will be slowly moving into the central and southern Plains on Friday with a few thunderstorms possibly moving into western sections of the Mid- South. This Pacific front will move very slowly east over the weekend with additional showers and thunderstorms for both Saturday and Sunday. The greater chance of rain will be over the northwest half of the region. Temperatures will remain above normal for the weekend. The cold front will finally move across Arkansas on Monday and through the Mid-South by Tuesday afternoon. With the front getting closer to the region showers and thunderstorms will become more widespread for Monday before gradually decreasing behind the front on Tuesday. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1147 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024 As a warm front lifts north over the region, scattered showers will accompany the boundary starting around 18Z at JBR, following suit at the rest of the terminals through the late evening. Another round of precip originally looked to move in overnight after 00Z Friday, but the latest CAMs have backed off quite a bit on this. VFR ceilings should overspread the airspace by mid morning and stick around through the end of the period. Winds should remain generally east/northeasterly 6-9 kts. CAD && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...SJM AVIATION...CAD