####018009539#### FXUS62 KJAX 261000 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 600 AM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024 ...New AVIATION... For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 600 AM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024 Periods of IFR visibilities are expected at VQQ through around sunrise. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail through at least 08Z at the regional terminals. Periods of scattered to broken stratocumulus ceilings of 5,000-6,000 feet are expected through tonight. An easterly wind surge later this afternoon and evening could advect a few light showers or sprinkles towards the SGJ terminal, but confidence was too low to include anything other than vicinity shower coverage in the SGJ TAF towards 09Z Saturday at this time. A period of MVFR ceilings could accompany this shower activity that will be approaching SGJ during the predawn hours on Saturday. Light southeasterly surface winds this morning will shift to easterly by 16Z, with sustained surface speeds increasing to around 15 knots at the SSI and SGJ coastal terminals, CRG, and JAX by 20Z, with speeds elsewhere increasing to 10-15 knots. Easterly surface winds will then subside to 5-10 knots by 01Z Saturday at the inland terminals, while sustained speeds remain around 10 knots at the coastal terminals through the overnight hours tonight. && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 414 AM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024 Overnight surface analysis depicts a weak frontal boundary stalling near the Altamaha and Ocmulgee Rivers in southeast GA. Meanwhile, strong high pressure (1031 millibars) was building over New England and the Mid-Atlantic states in the wake of this frontal boundary, with this feature beginning to wedge down the Carolina coastline. Aloft...ridging centered over eastern portions of the East Pacific was building northeastward across the Gulf of Mexico and into the southeastern states, with this feature located downstream of a large trough that blankets the western half of the nation. A few patches of stratocumulus clouds were drifting across the skies of northeast and north central FL, with fair skies otherwise prevailing across southeast GA and the Suwannee Valley. Temperatures at 09Z were generally in the low to mid 60s across most of our region, with dewpoints mostly in the upper 50s to lower 60s. && .NEAR TERM... (Today and Tonight) Issued at 414 AM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024 A loose local pressure gradient to the south of the stalling frontal boundary over southeast GA may allow for patches of fog to form across inland portions of southeast GA southwestward through the Suwannee Valley during the predawn and early morning hours. Any fog that manages to develop will dissipate shortly after sunrise this morning. Ridging aloft will continue to build northeastward from the Gulf of Mexico over our area today, which will result in the weak, dry frontal boundary that is stalled over southeast GA dissipating tonight as it reaches the FL/GA border. The bigger story will be a tightening local pressure gradient from north to south this afternoon as strong high pressure situated over New England and the Mid-Atlantic states wedges down the southeastern seaboard. Light south-southeasterly winds this morning will shift to east- northeasterly this afternoon, with breezy conditions expected at most locations during the mid to late afternoon hours. This wind surge will likely be accompanied by an increasing coverage of marine stratocumulus advecting off the adjacent Atlantic waters, with this cloudiness quickly spreading westward across our region late this afternoon and this evening. Lighter winds and plenty of sunshine this morning will boost early afternoon temperatures to the upper 80s for locations west of the I-95 corridor, while lower 80s prevail for areas along and east of I-95. Temperatures will slowly fall this afternoon as the breezy maritime air mass overspreads our region. High pressure will continue to wedge down the southeastern seaboard overnight, with weak coastal troughing likely developing over the northeast FL waters. Breezy and covergent onshore low level flow and PWATS increasing to around 1.5 inches may develop a few coastal showers towards sunrise on Saturday, especially for locations south of St. Augustine. Multi-layered cloudiness will increase across our area as marine stratocumulus advects onshore and cirrus spilling overtop of the ridge centered to the southwest of or region invades and overspreads our area overnight. An onshore breeze will keep coastal lows in the upper 60s to around 70, while gradually decoupling winds inland during the overnight hours allow lows to fall back to the low and mid 60s. && .SHORT TERM... (Saturday through Sunday night) Issued at 414 AM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024 Strong surface high pressure over New England wedges down the eastern seaboard as ridging aloft amplifies over the eastern US. Prevailing subsidence will lead to a mainly dry and warm weekend. However, a weak coastal trough may shift onshore Saturday morning bringing a few light showers, mainly to areas south of St. Augustine. Breezy easterly winds continue with sustained winds of 10-15 mph and gusts around 20-25 mph. Due to onshore flow, temperatures will have an east-west gradient with highs in the upper 70s along the coast to low/mid 80s further inland. Overnight lows will be in the upper 50s and 60s. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Thursday) Issued at 414 AM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024 Warm and mostly dry conditions continue through the week. Surface high pressure remains parked to our east through the week as flow gradually shifts to southerly. Upper level ridging over the eastern US begins to flatten early next week as a shortwave trough swings through the US. Its associated surface cold front weakens and stalls generally to the northwest, extending the ongoing dry spell. Above normal temperatures with highs rising into the upper 80s/low 90s and overnight lows in the 60s. && .MARINE... Issued at 414 AM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024 A frontal boundary situated over the GA waters this morning will stall over the northeast FL waters this afternoon before dissipating tonight. Meanwhile, strong high pressure building over New England and the Mid-Atlantic states in the wake of this front will wedge down the southeastern seaboard beginning this afternoon, resulting in strengthening onshore winds and building seas. Winds may approach Caution levels this afternoon, especially over the GA waters. Seas of 2-4 feet will prevail both near shore and offshore today. Onshore winds and seas will reach Caution levels throughout our local waters this evening and tonight, with Small Craft Advisory conditions becoming likely on Saturday and Saturday night for the offshore waters adjacent to northeast FL, where seas will build to 6-7 feet. Seas for the near shore waters adjacent to northeast FL and the offshore waters adjacent to southeast GA will peak in the 4-6 foot range, with 3-5 foot seas forecast for the near shore waters adjacent to southeast GA. High pressure will then shift southward while gradually weakening late this weekend, with this feature then becoming anchored off the southeastern seaboard for much of next week. Winds and seas will gradually diminish from Sunday afternoon through the early portions of the upcoming week. Seas of 2-4 feet will prevail throughout our local waters by late Tuesday. Rip Currents: A lingering long period east-northeasterly ocean swell will keep a moderate rip current risk in place at all area beaches through early this afternoon. Strengthening onshore winds later this afternoon will increase the risk to high at the northeast FL beaches. A High rip current risk is likely at all area beaches this weekend due to gusty onshore winds and breakers building to the 3-5 foot range. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 414 AM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024 Water levels along lower portions of the Santa Fe River have crested, but Moderate flooding near the Three Rivers Estates gauge will continue through Saturday night, with water levels then gradually falling, but remaining in minor flood for much of next week. Water levels near the gauge at Hildreth on the lower Santa Fe will also gradually subside, with minor flooding expected to continue through at least Tuesday. Water levels are expected to fall below flood stage along upper portions of the Suwannee River near the gauge at Suwannee Springs early this morning. Minor flooding will otherwise continue along most of the lower Suwannee River through the weekend. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 85 62 83 61 / 10 10 0 0 SSI 80 67 78 66 / 10 10 0 0 JAX 84 65 80 64 / 0 10 0 0 SGJ 81 68 79 67 / 0 10 10 0 GNV 87 63 83 60 / 0 0 20 0 OCF 87 63 84 62 / 0 0 10 0 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk from 2 PM EDT this afternoon through Sunday evening for FLZ124-125-133-138. GA...None. AM...None. && $$ ####018006715#### FXUS62 KMHX 261004 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 604 AM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will gradually build into the Carolinas from the northeast today, and will remain in control while sliding offshore this weekend into early next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... As of 600 AM Fri...High pressure will continue to build over eastern NC from the north through tonight. Gusty northeast winds will begin to gradually subside this afternoon and evening as the gradient begins to slacken. An expansive area of low stratus clouds continue across eastern NC early this morning and will persist over much of the area through late morning then dissipate due to heating. Skies will become partly to mostly sunny this afternoon with pleasant high temps in the upper 60s to lower 70s inland, with cooler low to mid 60s along the Outer Banks and immediate coastal areas. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/... As of 300 AM Fri...Quiet weather tonight as high pressure continues over the area. The high will produce clear skies and light winds. Lows will be in the upper 40s to lower 50s inland and mid 50s immediate coast and Outer Banks. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 300 AM Friday... KEY MESSAGES - Well above normal temperatures Tuesday-Thursday - Thunderstorm risk may return mid to late-week FORECAST DETAILS The most prominent feature in the long-term period will be an amplified upper level ridge forecast to develop over the Eastern U.S. this weekend and into early next week. Beneath the ridge, warm/above normal low-level thicknesses are forecast to develop. There may be some mid-level cloudiness around over the weekend, but by early next week, the combination of mostly sunny skies, warm thicknesses, a reduced risk of precipitation, and persistent southwesterly flow should support a period of well above normal temperatures focused in the Tuesday-Thursday timeframe. Both deterministic and ensemble guidance support this, and with this forecast update, I've bumped temps up towards the 75th percentile of guidance. Inland, this suggests highs in the upper 80s to near 90. Along the coast, this suggests mid to upper 70s to near 80 degrees. With persistent southerly flow, dewpoints are forecast to steadily increase early next week as well, which may allow heat indices to reach the 90s. While not headline-worthy, it's still noteworthy as this would increase the risk of heat exhaustion for those with prolonged exposure. From mid to late-week, model guidance begins to differ, but the general theme is for the ridge to breakdown. While not immediate, the lack of ridging could eventually open the door to an increase in the risk of convection, if for no other reason than the daily seabreeze. Several shortwaves are forecast to pass over, or near, the Carolinas late in the week, which would also support an increase in the risk of convection. Of note, CIPS and CSU severe weather guidance are showing a modest signal for severe weather potential late-week, although deterministic guidance show less of a signal. Despite the differences, it's something to watch as we move into next week. Forecast-wise, we'll show a low-end risk of thunderstorms Thursday into Friday (10-30% chance). While still warm, temperatures late in the week should lower some compared to early in the week, especially with the potential for thunderstorms and more cloudiness around at times. && .AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... SHORT TERM /Through Tonight/... As of 600 AM Friday...Widespread low stratus clouds will produce prevailing IFR conditions in ceilings through late morning (around 14Z), followed by a brief period of MVFR ceilings until 16-18Z, then VFR conditions are expected the remainder of the afternoon and tonight as high pressure builds over the area. Some higher based 5-10K based clouds will move from the west late tonight and early Sat. Winds will generally be NE to E around 5-10 kt with gusts around 15 kt inland while coastal sections will see 10-20 kt with gusts 25 kt into this afternoon. Not seeing any signals in the guidance pointing to fog overnight. LONG TERM /Saturday through Tuesday/... As of 200 AM Friday... The expected synoptic weather pattern carries a high probability of VFR conditions into early next week, with little to no aviation impacts. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /through Tonight/... As of 600 AM Friday...SCA's will continue into tonight due northerly surge and elevated seas that developed on Thu and which will continue this morning, The strongest winds, 15-25 kt will persist until around 12Z this morning then gradually diminish to 15-20 kt this afternoon and 10-15 tonight. Elevated 4-7 ft seas this morning will be slow to subside below 6 ft. The southern waters will subside to 3-5 ft late today with the northern waters forecast to subside early Sat morning, and the central waters Sat afternoon. LONG TERM /Saturday through Tuesday/... As of 200 AM Friday... KEY MESSAGES - Elevated seas linger into early this weekend - Good boating conditions expected late-weekend into early next week FORECAST DETAILS High pressure overhead this weekend will shift offshore early next week, with inland troughing developing in the lee of the Appalachians. Winds will be very light over the weekend, then will steadily increase early next week with southwesterly flow of 10-20kt common. Seas of 3-5 ft will be common through early next week, setting up good boating conditions for several days. The one exception is early this weekend as seas will remain elevated within the northeasterly background swell that has been impacting the area for the past few days. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NCZ203-205. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for AMZ131- 230-231. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for AMZ135. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Saturday for AMZ150. Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Saturday for AMZ152-154. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for AMZ156- 158. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...JME SHORT TERM...JME LONG TERM...DAG/RM AVIATION...RM/JME MARINE...RM/JME