####018007864#### FXUS61 KOKX 101456 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 1056 AM EDT Fri May 10 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure systems moves south of the area today, and further south and offshore tonight. A weak low approaches Saturday night into Sunday. High pressure returns on Monday before moving offshore into Tuesday. Another low may impact the region during the middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Gloomy end to the workweek with a strung out wave of low pressure passing off the Mid Atlantic coast. Intermittent periods of rain, mostly light, persist much of the day. Exception is SE CT, where showers may remain more spotty and infrequent in a bit more stable environment. Coverage may expand this afternoon as the trough axis moves through, before conditions begin to dry out this evening. Rain should taper everywhere by midnight or just before. Additional QPF total perhaps up to a quarter inch. With the rain, clouds, and onshore wind, temperatures run a good 10 to 15 degrees below normal for early to mid May. A few places in SE CT may approach 60 where rain will be minimized, but otherwise low to mid 50s can be expected elsewhere. An east breeze will be noticeable along the coast, adding to the chill. Surface high pressure briefly returns in its wake and cloud cover diminishes considerably overnight, perhaps even becoming clear toward daybreak Saturday. Temperatures will get a few degrees below normal tonight, looks for lows to mainly be in the lower and middle 40s, with upper 40s in the metro. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... The weekend should start off dry and rather pleasant, albeit a bit cool through at least the early afternoon on Saturday. Temperatures will average a bit below normal with an onshore wind off the colder ocean. Most places should get into the lower and middle 60s for daytime maxes. Getting closer to evening look for clouds to begin to increase from the west with an introduction of slight chance of showers across far western sections before day's end. For Saturday night look for a good deal of clouds further west, with more clouds getting further east as the night progresses. Went with consensus guidance with respect to PoPs with chance to slight chance PoPs from west to east. With the light onshore flow continuing ahead of a weakening frontal boundary look for temperatures to be a few degrees below normal with lows around 45 to 50. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A shortwave will begin to exit Sunday morning. Low pressure may pass offshore ahead of the shortwave with another weaker low hanging back over the northeast. There is some question surrounding how much surface ridging lingers over New England, which may keep higher probabilities of showers across the western half of the area. The atmosphere is stable so will just mention showers. Highs will primarily be in the mid/upper-50s. There is good agreement among the deterministic and ensemble guidance for the trough to shift offshore Monday. A relatively flat ridge should settle over the northeast Monday, but may also linger into a portion of Tuesday, leading to a dry stretch with increased sunshine. With an approaching low to the west and an exiting high to the east Monday evening/night, south winds could become breezy with most 00Z showing a 35-45kt LLJ developing, likely aided by a southern stream upper-level jet shifting northward over the area. Models have come into better agreement on a southern stream shortwave that moves out of the Plains Tuesday and tracks towards the east coast the middle of next week. An associated frontal system/low pressure should evolve somewhere near the Middle Atlantic. Based on the timing from 00Z guidance it appears the low passing to our south will give us the best chance of rain early Wednesday. High pressure gradually builds in, afterwards. && .AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Low pressure passes to our south as it travels east this morning through the day Friday. Weak high pressure returns Friday night into Saturday morning. Conditions vary from MVFR to VFR across the forecast area. High end IFR ceilings are possible at times through this afternoon, but the chances seemed to have lowered for this. Improvement to MVFR is expected this afternoon then back to VFR sometime in the evening. Rain/showers will continue through much of Friday, clearing by the evening. Rain may not be persistent and may come in waves or on-and-off again showers. East winds increase to around 15kt with gusts 15-20kt. Winds back more NE over the morning into Friday/Friday evening and diminish. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... Low chance of IFR conditions, but conditions largely remain MVFR. Low confidence on timing of return to VFR Friday. OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... Saturday and Sunday: Chance of MVFR or lower in showers. Monday: Mainly VFR. Isolated showers possible at KSWF. Tuesday: VFR. SW G20kt. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 && .MARINE... Small craft conditions take shape across all waters today with gusts at 25 to 30 kt. For tonight sub small craft conditions should return to the non ocean waters, with small craft seas likely remaining on the ocean for the majority of tonight. Sub small craft conditions are expected with seas closer to 4 ft on the ocean for much of this weekend. South winds may increase Monday evening/early Tuesday, but currently keeping ocean waters just below 25 kt gusts. Ocean waters may briefly reach 5 feet during this time frame. && .HYDROLOGY... There are no hydrologic concerns throughout the forecast period. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Minor coastal flooding continues Friday night, but coverage will be less than last night. Have maintained coastal flood advisories for the western south shore bays of Southern Nassau and Southern Queens, along with Southern Fairfield and Southern Westchester. Have chosen based on latest trends from taking an average of Stevens, ETSS, and ESTOFS to downgrade advisories to statements for Southern Brooklyn, Staten Island, and NE NJ coastal zones. Statements which were previously in effect for Southern Suffolk, NW Suffolk, Northern Nassau and Northern Queens have been discontinued as water levels have trended down and are no longer expected to meet minor benchmarks. Saturday night may see one more night where minor benchmarks could be approached for Southern Nassau and Southern Queens, otherwise this latest round of minor coastal flooding should completely come to an end later in the weekend. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...Coastal Flood Advisory from midnight tonight to 4 AM EDT Saturday for CTZ009. NY...Coastal Flood Advisory from midnight tonight to 4 AM EDT Saturday for NYZ071. Coastal Flood Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 1 AM EDT Saturday for NYZ178-179. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ331- 332-335-340. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ338- 345. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ350-353- 355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JE/BR NEAR TERM...JE/BR/DR SHORT TERM...JE/BR LONG TERM...BR AVIATION...JP/BR MARINE...JE/BR HYDROLOGY...JE/BR TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... ####018003078#### FXUS64 KJAN 101456 AAA AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson MS 956 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024 ...New MESOSCALE UPDATE... .MESOSCALE UPDATE... Issued at 939 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024 The cold front has pushed southeast of the area and the chance for rain has ended. Cooler and drier air will continue to filter into our CWA today as a surface high builds in from the northwest. The forecast was updated to remove pops from the southeast. /22/ && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 315 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Today through Thursday night...The bulk of the storms are beginning to move east of the area this morning, but showers will continue to be possible through mid morning. Skies will begin to clear later this morning into this afternoon, as surface high pressure builds in with highs mainly in the low to mid 80s. High pressure and dry conditions will prevail through most of the weekend with highs around 80 degrees. Moisture will begin to increase on Sunday, with increasing chances for storms mainly in the south Sunday afternoon. A warm front will begin to push north over the area Sunday night, with widespread showers/storms developing over much of the area during the timeframe. Currently it looks like the primary threat will be heavy rainfall with these storms, but this will have to continue to be monitored. Expect the bulk of the storms to move east of the area through the morning hours on Monday. We will get a bit of a break Monday afternoon, but another short wave/cold front will approach the area Monday evening, with another round of storms Monday evening into the overnight hours. Showers will continue to be possible into Tuesday as the main upper trough moves across the area. High pressure and dry conditions return briefly on Wednesday, but yet another series of short waves will kick of more showers/storms Thursday and Thursday night. /15/ && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 655 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024 All SHRA & TSRA have cleared the area in the overnight hours. Other than a few patches of low stratus & variable visibility at HEZ, PIB, HBG & MEI, expect improvement areawide to VFR over the next couple of hours by 10/14-16Z. Winds should generally prevail out of the north, sustained near 10-15mph & gusts around 20mph, with highest sustained/gusts near GLH. Expect light winds into the evening & VFR conditions to prevail through the end of the 12Z TAF period. /DC/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 82 58 79 62 / 0 0 0 0 Meridian 85 55 81 60 / 0 0 0 0 Vicksburg 82 58 81 63 / 0 0 0 0 Hattiesburg 87 60 83 62 / 10 0 0 0 Natchez 83 59 81 62 / 0 0 0 0 Greenville 80 59 81 64 / 0 0 0 0 Greenwood 80 56 81 62 / 0 0 0 0 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...None. LA...None. AR...None. && $$ DC/ ####018005549#### FXUS63 KMKX 101457 AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 957 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Line of showers and thunderstorms will move through this evening. Small hail and gusty winds are expected, but widespread severe weather is unlikely. - Additional shower/storm chances at times (50% or less) later Sunday into the middle of next week. && .UPDATE... Issued 957 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024 No major changes this morning. A line of showers and thunderstorms is expected to sweep across the area from northwest to southeast between about 6 PM and 9 PM. Low freezing levels will favor small hail, with dry air and steep low level lapse rates likely resulting in some gusty winds. Couldn't totally rule out a few storms approaching severe limits for a very brief period of time, but the threat is not expected to be widespread or persistent. Boxell && .SHORT TERM... Issued 409 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Today through Sunday night: Shortwave ridging is expected today ahead of a strong digging shortwave trough currently over srn Manitoba. At the sfc, wly winds will develop after high pressure moves east by afternoon and a wave of low pressure moves into nrn WI. Low level warm advection and the arrival of a thermal ridge late in the day should support temps 65-70F. The digging shortwave trough and cold front will provide well organized lift this evening. Although CAPE is very low, there is good agreement among CAMs and the HREF of a line of showers with possibly embedded storms to move across srn WI. The line of showers should be fairly high based given large dewpoint depressions, which will contribute to the expected gusty winds along the line. At this time it is unlikely the wind gusts would reach severe strength. Breezy northwest winds will then follow for Saturday as the low pressure area slowly moves across lower MI. Lingering cold air aloft may allow a few showers to develop over ern WI. High temps will range from the lower to middle 60s over ern WI to upper 60s over south central WI. Another high pressure area will shift across srn WI Sat evening followed by breezy swly winds for Sun. Strong low pressure will move across Ontario on Sun but a weaker wave of low pressure will move into the nrn Great Lakes. Its cold front will then settle south into srn WI Sun nt and possibly stall. A few weak vorticity maximums may aid the lift along the front during this time with pcpn chances up to 40 percent. Gehring && .LONG TERM... Issued 409 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Monday through Thursday: Longwave troughing sloping from the Hudson Bay into the Atlantic and moisture streaming over the Canadian Rockies leads to several rounds of showers and perhaps some thunderstorms across southern Wisconsin, as well as near normal temperatures. A lingering cold front on Monday combined with a developing low pressure system in the southern Plains may lead to showers lifting northward into southern Wisconsin Monday night into Tuesday, clearing Tuesday night. Modeling is in agreement with WAA and a break in precipitation on Wednesday, with a Canadian-origin shortwave phasing with another southern Plains low on Thursday and bringing the next chances for precipitation and some gustier conditions. This time frame looks to be more favorable for thunderstorm development with surface WAA and a stronger frontal passage leading to increased lift and convective development. Ensembles indicate a small (approximately 10 percent) chance for CAPE values over 500 J/kg Thursday afternoon, with better chances for warming and increased instability going into next weekend. Gehring && .AVIATION... Issued 957 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024 VFR will prevail through the next 24 hours. Light west winds are expected through the afternoon, with a lake breeze possible very near Lake Michigan. A cold front will move through the area this evening, bringing a line of showers and thunderstorms through the area. Brief drops to MVFR and IFR are possible in and around any showers or storms, along with gusty winds and small hail. Behind this line, expect winds to take on a more northwesterly direction, with ceilings lifting and scattering out. Boxell && .MARINE... Issued 409 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024 High pressure of 30.0 inches over northwest Wisconsin early this morning will move across Lake Michigan during the middle of the day. The light northerly winds this morning will back to southerly this afternoon. A wave of low pressure around 29.6 inches will then follow the high across northern Lake Michigan tonight then deepen slightly and slow down over northern lower Michigan on Saturday. It will also drag a cold front across the lake tonight. Modest southerly winds will shift to northwest with the frontal passage and continue through Saturday. Another high pressure area will then move across the lake Saturday evening with south winds returning and becoming breezy after it passes for Sunday. Gehring && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. LM...None. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee www.twitter.com/NWSMilwaukee www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee ####018005497#### FXUS63 KFGF 101458 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 958 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered thunderstorms are forecast for portions of northwest and west-central Minnesota this afternoon. A few storms may produce wind gusts to 50 mph and small hail. Best chance (50%) for strong storms resides east of US Highway 59. - Gusty northwest winds will develop today. There is a 40% chance sustained winds exceed 30 mph and/or gust to 45 mph to eastern North Dakota and the Red River Valley. These winds along with dry conditions will bring near critical fire weather conditions to these areas. && .UPDATE... Issued at 958 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Pulled the low POPs out of the Red River Valley this morning as the shower activity has stayed up around Lake of the Woods and the Red Lakes, and upstream showers in Canada seem like they will take a similar path. Amounts still look light and low impact. Will continue to keep an eye on winds and RH values in the Red River Valley for fire weather concerns. UPDATE Issued at 650 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024 A cold front is moving through the area bringing gusts as high as 40 mph in portions of the northern Red River Valley and northwest Minnesota. This is likely tied to an initial bubble of strong CAA. However, as daytime mixing commences this will spread. In coordination with neighboring offices and MIFC, issued an Special Weather Statement on near critical fire weather conditions within the Red River Valley. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 430 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Synopsis.. Water vapor imagery projects a progressive and potent shortwave trough moving southeast within MB and western ON. This will move into MN today. Cold air aloft embedded within this trough will drive thunderstorm chances today by way of steep lapse rates/weak instability, meager but sufficient moisture, and strong synoptic lift. Some storms may be strong bringing gusty winds and small hail. This trough will also bring gusty winds and dry air over the Dakotas. Behind the quickly departing trough today will be shortwave ridging tonight into Saturday ahead of the next progressive shortwave trough expected to brush our area as it moves through MB into ON. This next trough's passage will advect warmer air into the region, along with bringing an additional chance for showers and storms to the area, currently favoring northeast ND into MN late Saturday. Additional progressive shortwave troughs are forecast to move through the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest through next week, although predictability in their timing and trajectories remains rather low. Still, additional chances of showers and storms exist through next week. Strong storms in Minnesota today... The path of today's trough will place our area in a northerly flow regime, with increasing winds with height. As daytime heating commences, convection will start to bubble late morning through the afternoon. This along with a very deeply mixed PBL underneath thunderstorms will contribute to convectively driven wind gusts as high as 50 mph in strongest storms. With such cold temperatures aloft keeping much of the cloud layer sub- freezing as well as generally favorable kinematics, storms will also hold the potential for small hail. Expected hail sizes are generally under the size of quarters, although a few instances of quarter sized hail cannot be ruled out. Overall chance for storms is around 50% mainly east of US Highway 59, which also holds relatively best chances for these stronger storms. Gusty winds today.. Deep mixing today (likely at or above 700 mb) will allow increased winds aloft to mix toward the surface. Overall winds within the deeply mixed PBL today are not overly strong, generally in the 20-30 kt range, although some guidance does mix into a layer where 30-40 kt winds exist. Northwesterly direction of winds will also favor some locally increased winds within the Red River Valley. Available CAMs favor the southern Valley to see best potential in seeing highest winds, with around a 40% chance of meeting wind advisory criteria. Dry air mass moving into the Dakotas along with gusty winds also introduces the potential for fire weather conditions. However, recent rainfall and green up of fine fuels/grasses should mitigate the potential for rapid spread of fires. Still, we are opting to message near critical fire weather conditions based on weather conditions alone. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 650 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024 While VFR conditions are forecast throughout the TAF period, gusty north to northwest winds 20 kt gusting to 30 kt will develop today through 01Z. There is a small chance winds reach as high as 35 kt within the Red River Valley (KGFK, KFAR) between 16Z-01Z. Scattered thunderstorms are expected within Minnesota this afternoon, although confidence isn't yet high enough to include in TAFs at KTVF and KBJI. Best chance for storms reside 17Z-01Z. There is a small chance storms bring sporadic, brief gusts to 50kt and small hail. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...CJ/JR DISCUSSION...CJ AVIATION...CJ ####018004563#### FXUS63 KILX 101458 AFDILX Area Forecast Discussion...Updated National Weather Service Lincoln IL 958 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - In the Monday-Tuesday timeframe, there is a 20-30% chance of greater than 0.75" of rainfall in 24 hours. Should this occur, one impact would be additional runoff into area rivers already running high. && .UPDATE... Issued at 957 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Mid level water vapor satellite imagery shows an upper trough sinking southeast across the Ohio Valley and towards the Appalachians this morning. As a shortwave ridge builds into the Prairie State in its wake, mid levels will dry and become increasingly stable this afternoon, though steep lapse rates off the surface will provide a shallow layer of stout instability favoring continued cu development (HREF probs for low clouds remain 40-60% through the evening). Can't rule out a couple sprinkles with this activity, though most, if not all, precip falling from the more robust towering cu should evaporate through the dry "inverted V" below the LFC. A better chance (> 30% north of a Macomb to Paris line) for showers will arrive tonight as a compact upper trough and associated trailing cold front pass through the region. Bumgardner && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 237 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024 An upper level wave is diving southeast across IL this morning. There have been a few showers associated with this wave as it traversed IA and moved into northwest IL, but the latest high res models indicate these showers won't make it deep into central IL. We will see brief upper ridging this afternoon before another upper wave dives southeast into IL tonight in the northwest flow aloft. An associated surface low will dive southeast across the Great Lakes with an accompanying cold front passing through IL Friday night. We'll see a chance for showers with this system Friday night, but instability looks rather weak. Believe thunder chances will be rather slim as MUCAPEs look to be less than 100 J/kg according to the HREF mean. Expect benign northwesterly flow aloft for the weekend. We'll have breezy northwest winds on Saturday with a surface ridge of high pressure moving through the area Saturday night. By Sunday night, an upper low will be passing to the east across Ontario with a southern stream upper low approaching to the southwest. Precipitation chances increase across IL from this southern system Sunday night, with some moderate chances for thunder expected as MUCAPEs are as high as 500 J/kg in west-central IL. The upper low will slowly make its way east across the mid MS River Valley on Mon/Tue and the track will play a key role in how far north the rain extends. Showers with embedded thunderstorms are expected for the start to the week, with the southern half of IL having the best chance for measurable rainfall. Right now, the rainfall ensemble mean for Mon-Tue ranges from around 0.25" in Galesburg to 0.75" in Lawrenceville. Models also have a 20-30% chance for 0.75" of rain in 24 hrs in our southern zones, around I-72 and south, which could add some additional runoff to area rivers that are already running high. Sometime in the Wed-Thu timeframe, we'll likely see an upper ridge move into the area once again, providing a break from the precip for at least part of the period. There are model differences in the timing of this ridge, but sometime on Thu or Friday, another upper wave is expected to bring showers and storms back to the region. Stay tuned for updates to this late week system as the picture becomes clearer with subsequent model runs. Knutsvig && .AVIATION... (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Saturday Morning) Issued at 614 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Cigs started around 1500 ft this morning across much of central IL...although we do have breaks that are expanding. We'll be seeing improvement through the morning with most areas seeing VFR conditions by early afternoon. With our without the initial low clouds, we should see SCT-BKN decks of cumulus develop by late morning with bases rising to above 3000 ft AGL by early afternoon. A few showers will move into central IL from the northwest around 03Z, but coverage is expected to be rather low so did not include in the TAFs at this time. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$