####018007273#### FXUS65 KCYS 130520 AFDCYS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cheyenne WY 1020 PM MST Fri Dec 12 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Recent strong winds across southeast Wyoming will continue to diminish Friday. However, additional High Winds likely for the wind prones late Friday into Saturday morning. - Arctic cold front will brush eastern Wyoming and the northern Nebraska Panhandle Friday and Saturday. Much colder temperatures expected. - Warming trend expected Sunday through early next week with strong winds possibly returning to southeast Wyoming on Tuesday and Wednesday. && .UPDATE... Issued at 455 PM MST Fri Dec 12 2025 Upslope flow across the southern portions of the Nebraska panhandle is leading to areas of fog via upslope. Uncertain how far up the higher elevations this may push up but limited to 4500ft for now which mainly keeps it in the panhandle for now but does locally bring across the Wyoming border along the North Platte river. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 119 PM MST Fri Dec 12 2025 The brief break in high winds continues through the afternoon before the next round starts up again this evening. Although it technically hasn't been a true break with sites in the Arlington zone occasionally hitting 60 MPH gusts, it has not been the constant barrage of winds it has been for the past several days. Aside from the winds, observations clearly show where the arctic front has stalled. Temperatures along a line from Douglas to Alliance are currently in the teens and 20s early this afternoon, signaling the location of the front. South and west of this boundary, temperatures range from the upper 30s to low 50s. Hi-Res guidance has really toned down the precipitation behind this front, however, still cannot rule out some light snow showers around the Chadron area this afternoon. High winds pick up again this evening as a surface trough develops in lee of the Laramie Range. MSLP gradients will increase west of the Laramie Range as well as 850 and 700 mb CAG to CPR height gradients. This will increase winds aloft to about 60 kts overnight. Strong subsidence will be the main driver in getting these winds down to the surface. Did go ahead and upgrade the High Wind Watches to Warnings for the South Laramie Range and Bordeaux as in-house guidance gave them fairly good probabilities of hitting high winds. However, the GFS has the trough positioned nearly over the Laramie Range which prohibits a strong MSLP gradient from developing. This could prevent these zones from seeing high winds. Strong winds should keep overnight lows around freezing in the wind prone areas. Did go ahead and adjust overnight low temperatures underneath the arctic front. Given that the current placement of the front this afternoon is a bit more further west and south than anticipated, went ahead and spread overnight lows in the teens and 20s further west to Douglas and further south to Scottsbluff. The Wyoming Wind Machine will turn off by late Saturday morning as winds turn more northerly. High Wind Warnings will expire at 8 AM, but blustery conditions can be expected at the wind prones throughout the day. Northerly winds will funnel more cold air into the CWA, however, the extent of the arctic air still needs to be ironed out. Most ensembles keep the arctic air around the Chadron area, but there are members from both the GFS and ECMWF that show it creeping into Alliance and Douglas. For now, kept the coldest air in the northern Nebraska panhandle. For the rest of the CWA, high temperatures in the 30s and 40s are expected, with the warmest temperatures expected west of the Laramie Range. A pleasant day is expected Sunday as strong upper-level ridging builds into the Rockies. Southwest flow aloft will usher in 700 mb temperatures as warm as +8C! These temperatures will approach climatological max of NAEFS climatology so expect an unusually warm mid-December day! High temperatures across the area will be in the 50s and 60s, which is about 20 degrees above average. These temperatures will put Cheyenne and Laramie within a degree of tying their record highs. Mostly sunny skies with lighter winds will make for a great end to the weekend. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 119 PM MST Fri Dec 12 2025 There remains strong agreement from global ensemble based clusters regarding the evolution of the ridge currently over the western half of CONUS. The main differences between ensembles would be in the amplitude of any shortwave activity traversing the weakening ridge early next week with more southerly tracking waves bringing stronger low level pressure gradients to the forecast region and high potential for strong winds in the wind prones areas early in the week (Monday/Tuesday). Looking towards the mid week the is signal even in the ensembles for a strong hybrid type low to track across the Canada/US border with a zonal flow in the central/northern Rockies allowing strong low to mid level flow to push south into our area bringing strong winds to the wind prones and adjacent areas. Currently this event does not look to have the ceiling as the event we just concluded but 70kt 700mb flow is certainly in the cards which when paired with favorable negative omega in the lee of the higher terrain and an increasing sfc pressure gradient along the front range as the attendant cold front pushes south through the high plains the ceiling remains higher somewhere between Saturday's high winds in the wind prones and last Tuesday's peak gusts which were widely 60-80mph even outside the wind prones. Aside from the typical threat of wind this transient early week shortwave activity does look to bring a chance for high elevation snow (likely below advisory thresholds) and will prevail the downslope airmass through the mid week period when that reinforcing cold front moves south along the front range dropping highs from the early week 50s and 60s to late week 40s and 50s behind the front. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1020 PM MST Fri Dec 12 2025 A few concerns for this TAF period, dense FG primarily across the Nebraska Panhandle and LLWS affecting all the terminals in our CWA. IFR to LIFR CIGs and VIS have impacted and will continue through 15Z Saturday for the Nebraska terminals, dropping VIS to less than 1/4SM at times and CIGs as low as 200 feet. Gusty winds will continue in Wyoming, 30 to 40 knots, while winds pick up Saturday morning across the Nebraska panhandle into the 20 to 30 knot range. && .CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WY...Dense Fog Advisory until 5 AM MST Saturday for WYZ119. High Wind Warning until 8 AM MST Saturday for WYZ106-110-116. NE...Dense Fog Advisory until 5 AM MST Saturday for NEZ019>021-054- 055. && $$ UPDATE...WFOCYS SHORT TERM...SF LONG TERM...WFOCYS AVIATION...RZ ####018006308#### FXUS63 KGLD 130521 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 1021 PM MST Fri Dec 12 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Patchy freezing fog and freezing drizzle tonight across the area may lead to slick surfaces and reduced visibilities, impacting travel. - Large temperature gradient across the area over the weekend, with colder temperatures generally east of Highway 83/23 and milder temperatures in Colorado. - Milder temperatures in the 50s, 60s, and maybe 70s return early next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 215 PM MST Fri Dec 12 2025 Tonight, a shortwave trough is forecast to move over the CWA from the northwest. Most of the mid and upper-level moisture will have left the area, but near-surface moisture is forecast to stick around overnight. Depending on the timing of the trough, the eastern 1/3 of the CWA could see southeastern flow into the morning Saturday. If this occurs, fog will likely form. If the axis sweeps through the area before sunrise, southwesterly winds will dominate and fog would be unlikely. Additionally, if the surface level moisture does remain over the eastern CWA and the forecast -1 to -3 microbars of Omega occur, drizzle will occur. In this scenario, there is a 70% chance a light glazing of ice will form over Norton and Graham counties from freezing drizzle. This could extend to the west, as far Trenton, NE. It's also worth noting guidance is having a difficult time with low temperatures. Lows will be in the upper 20s, largely kept this "warm" from the low level moisture. There is a 25-30% chance the moisture clears out and lows drop into the low 20s across the northeastern CWA. Boiled down, there is a 10-15% chance of freezing drizzle along and east of a line from Trenton, NE to Hoxie, KS and a 40% chance of patchy freezing fog east of Highway 83 Saturday morning. Either of these would lead to a light glazing of ice, causing impacts to travel Saturday morning. During the day Saturday, a high will be coming in from the northwest, leading to northerly flow during the day behind a cold front. Behind the cold front, we could see wind gusts around 20-30 kts across the area. We expect to see a pretty sharp temperature boundary across the area. In the eastern CWA, highs will top out in the 30s, but the southwestern CWA will warm into the upper 50s. It's possible the cooler temperatures could expand farther southwest and highs near McCook and Norton may not come above freezing. Saturday night, we could see fog early on, potentially freezing, how quickly the temperatures cool below freezing will determine if this is freezing fog, but current confidence in freezing fog is around 10%. By Sunday morning, a high pressure system will be crossing the CWA and temperatures will be cold! Lows are forecast to cool around 10 degrees in the eastern CWA while the western CWA will remain around 20 degrees. Wind chills are forecast to be near 0 across most of the area. Sunday's temperatures will be similar to Saturday's. Highs in the east will be in the low to mid 30s while highs in the west will be in the low to mid 50s. Temperatures will be trying to get warmer with southerly WAA. Sunday could also see some 20-25 kts gusts, but not as many as Saturday. Sunday night, another weak cold front will be moving through the CWA, but lows will be warmer, thanks to the WAA earlier in the day. Across the CWA, lows will remain in the 20s, potentially upper teens in the eastern CWA. We cannot rule out some patchy freezing fog in the eastern CWA as RH values will reach near 100%. However, with a trough moving through and westerly winds, the potential for fog is less than 5%. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 1150 AM MST Fri Dec 12 2025 Monday and Tuesday are forecast to be fairly mild as the area sits under zonal/northwest flow aloft. While a few shortwaves may move through, winds are forecast to be around 5 to 15 mph with maybe a few gusts near 25 mph in Eastern colorado. Temperatures are forecast to warm into the 50s and 60s with a few 70s possible on Tuesday. Skies are forecast to be partly cloudy with drier air in place over the area. the only potential concern at this time is some briefly critical fire weather conditions for counties along the Colorado border as relative humidity drops into the teens. Wednesday through Friday, the upper flow is forecast to be zonal, but there is the potential for a trough to swing through the Plains on Wednesday. Should the trough swing low enough to impact the area, a low pressure system will move through and increase winds a bit. Winds would be closer to 15-20 mph with gusts around 30-40 mph. Temperatures would also lower into the 50s behind the system (likely on Thursday). Friday would then see the area warm up ahead of another potential system Should the upper trough Wednesday stay far enough north, then conditions similar to Monday and Tuesday with temperatures climbing into the 60s and winds around 5-15 mph should hold through the end of the week. Precipitation is not currently forecast as dry air is forecast to be in place through most of the extended period. If the system does move through the area Wednesday, a few showers or light snow showers would be possible, but nothing of note at this time. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1018 PM MST Fri Dec 12 2025 IFR to occasional VLIFR can be expected through the overnight hours at both KGLD and KMCK due to fog and freezing fog. Some improvement to both visibility and ceilings will occur at KGLD in the morning, then a return to VFR by around 15z. However, flight categories will be slow to improve at KMCK, where IFR will likely persist through the afternoon, mainly due to low ceilings. KMCK may see a period of VFR Saturday evening. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. CO...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...024 LONG TERM...KAK AVIATION...KAK ####018004069#### FXUS64 KOHX 130522 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 1122 PM CST Fri Dec 12 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1118 PM CST Fri Dec 12 2025 - Much colder air arrives this weekend with the coldest air of the season so far Saturday night through Monday morning. - A Cold Weather Advisory is in effect for all counties due to single digit to zero degree wind chills Sunday morning. - Widespread lows in the teens to single digits Sunday night. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Sunday Night) Issued at 1004 PM CST Fri Dec 12 2025 Friday was a pleasant day for Middle TN, but as we've been advertising, all of that is set to change. A cold front is moving through the area with northerly winds and a colder airmass setting up. Temperatures tonight will fall to near freezing, but this will only be the start of this cold blast. Saturday night, a much more potent cold front will surge south, bringing the coldest air of this season so far. Lows Saturday night will fall into the teens areawide and will stay below freezing throughout the day on Sunday with "highs" in the low to mid-20s. Wind chills will be even colder as northerly winds are expected to gust to 20-30 mph Saturday night through Sunday afternoon. By Sunday morning, wind chills will be near 0 near the KY border to near 5 degrees near the AL border. Temperatures will bottom-out Sunday night with widespread lows in the single digits to low-teens. A Cold Weather Advisory has been issued for all of our Middle TN counties Saturday night through Sunday morning due to these wind chills. As far as precipitation chances Saturday night, models continue to back off on that potential. Only low precipitation chances of 10-20% remain in the forecast mainly for the Plateau. Precipitation type would mainly be snow, but not anticipating any impacts from these flurries as the probability of getting anything more than a dusting is 10%. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through next Saturday) Issued at 1004 PM CST Fri Dec 12 2025 We'll begin to thaw out come Monday as temperatures warm above the freezing mark. Temperatures will rebound quickly thereafter so that highs are back in the 50s and even low-60s through the middle and end of next week. As far as the next chance of rain, precipitation chances increase to 60-80% Thursday as a system tracks through the Ohio Valley. Rain totals right now look to be light with the probability of getting at least a half inch at 20-30%. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1118 PM CST Fri Dec 12 2025 A patch of IFR/LIFR clouds are noted just along the northwest corner of Middle TN at the TN/KY border. There continues to be great model disagreement amongst how far these clouds will make it. Basing it solely off obs the last few hours, have opted not to bring cigs down below VFR thresholds at any terminal except for CKV. This may need to be adjusted overnight, but the cloud deck has been gradually eroding this evening. Winds will be light and variable overnight, shifting northerly Saturday afternoon with speeds between 7 to 10 kts. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 32 48 17 24 / 0 0 10 0 Clarksville 30 45 13 20 / 0 0 10 0 Crossville 30 52 16 23 / 0 0 20 0 Columbia 30 53 16 25 / 0 0 10 0 Cookeville 29 48 16 22 / 0 0 20 0 Jamestown 29 48 14 21 / 0 0 20 0 Lawrenceburg 30 54 17 25 / 0 0 10 0 Murfreesboro 30 51 16 24 / 0 0 10 0 Waverly 29 47 13 22 / 0 0 10 0 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Cold Weather Advisory from midnight Saturday night to noon CST Sunday for TNZ005>011-023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095. && $$ SHORT TERM...Clements LONG TERM....Clements AVIATION.....Baggett ####018005744#### FXUS63 KGID 130523 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 1123 PM CST Fri Dec 12 2025 ...Aviation Update... .KEY MESSAGES... - Some slick spots may develop overnight into Saturday daytime at least patchy freezing drizzle (confidence fairly low on likelihood/degree of icing impacts) - Wind chills Saturday night/Sunday morning are expected to be in the positive to negative single digits. - The coldest day will be Saturday (highs in the teens to 30s). The warmest day will be Wednesday (highs in the 50s and 60s). && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 314 PM CST Fri Dec 12 2025 Today through tonight... A broad upper trough extends from Montana to the East Coast. A surface high extends southward into Nebraska and Kansas. North to northeast winds are across south central and central Nebraska and north central Kansas. Temperatures across the area range from the low 20s to the low 40s. It is snowing across portions of the area north of I-80 along the leading edge of a cold front. The surface high will move further east tonight with winds across the area switching towards the southeast. Low temperatures tonight are expected to drop into the teens to mid 20s. Precipitation may continue through tonight (less than 25% chance) with the best chances north of I-80. The precipitation will likely be in the form of freezing drizzle and/or snow. Little to no accumulation is expected; however, roads and pavement may be slick in spots. Saturday through Sunday night... The freezing drizzle and snow/snow flurries may continue into Saturday morning with the highest chances northeast of the Tri- Cities area (15% to around 30% chance). Little to no accumulation is expected; however, some slick spots on pavement may still be present Saturday morning. A surface high with gusty northerly winds will be across south central and central Nebraska and north central Kansas on Saturday. High temperatures on Saturday will only be in the teens to 30s with wind chills in the single digits to the 20s during the afternoon. Low temperatures Saturday night will plummet into the single digits to low teens with wind chills values in the single digits to negative single digits. The upper trough will move a little further east on Sunday with the surface high centered over the Mississippi River. Winds will be gusty out of the south on Sunday. High temperatures will be in the mid 20s to mid 30s with wind chill values only getting up into the teens and 20s during the afternoon. Low temperatures Sunday night will be in the upper teens to lower 20s with southwest to west winds. Monday through Thursday... Temperatures will be on a warming trend Monday through Wednesday as the surface high moves away from Nebraska and Kansas. The warmest day is expected to be Wednesday with a surface low across the area and winds out of a westerly direction. High temperatures on Monday will be in the upper 40s to upper 50s and on Wednesday they will warm up to the mid 50s to mid 60s. A cold front will push into the area Wednesday night with temperatures cooling into the 40s and 50s for Thursday. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1121 PM CST Fri Dec 12 2025 For KGRI/KEAR Airports: - General overview: High confidence that the majority of the period features MVFR ceiling (possibly a few hours of IFR mainly at KEAR), and that north-northeast winds will become somewhat breezy behind a passing cold front mainly Saturday afternoon. Of lower confidence is the possibility that light freezing drizzle and/or light snow/flurries could cause at least minor visibility reduction and/or light icing impacts mainly during part of the daytime Saturday. Read on for more element-specific details. - Ceiling/visibility/precip potential: Starting off late this Friday evening/very early Saturday morning, MVFR ceiling will persist, but do not expect any light wintry precipitation. However, closer to and especially shortly after sunrise, the combination of slightly-lower ceilings (low- end MVFR at KGRI and possibly IFR at KEAR) and increasing lift could generate at least intermittent light freezing drizzle. Confidence is only considered "medium" in whether (or not) freezing drizzle will indeed materialize, so for now have only introduced PROB30 groups...BUT if it does then light icing could become an issue. As the day wears on, increasingly colder air should eventually transition any light freezing drizzle over to flurries/light snow (no accumulation anticipated), before any potential wintry precip ends entirely by by mid-late afternoon. Although later TAFs will likely need to adjust timing by up to a few hours, am currently aiming for low clouds to lift and/or scatter out to VFR ceiling by 23Z KGRI/00Z KEAR (although sporadic small patches of MVFR-level clouds could continue passing by into the evening). - Winds: Through a good chunk of the period (including both the first several and final several hours), sustained speeds will prevail at-or-below 10KT, with direction primarily easterly during the first 12 hours...then mainly northerly during the latter 12 hours. However, several hours of somewhat-breezy conditions will develop especially 19-23Z in the wake of a passing cold front, with sustained speeds commonly around 15KT/gusts around 20KT. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Schuldt AVIATION...Pfannkuch ####018006608#### FXUS63 KMQT 130524 AFDMQT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 1224 AM EST Sat Dec 13 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - The combination of 4-8 inches of snow and strong winds of 30-40 mph will result in hazardous conditions this evening through Saturday for the Keweenaw and eastern Upper Michigan. - Dangerous wind chills late tonight and Saturday are expected for parts of western Upper Michigan. - Gales and heavy freezing spray are expected on Lake Superior this evening into early Sunday. - Below normal temperatures continue this weekend before a warm up above freezing next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 356 PM EST Fri Dec 12 2025 Synoptic setup across the CONUS this afternoon consists of a broad upper low still in the vicinity of the Maritime Provinces followed by weak ridging over the eastern Great Lakes Region and northeast U.S. This ridging is being broken down by a closed upper low elongated over Ontario. Its associated surface low and accompanying cold front will be the focus of the short term period across Upper Michigan. Farther west, a large ridge continues to build over the West Coast. So far today, lake effect activity has been light on the radar mosaic. However, latest scans are now showing an uptick over western portions of the forecast area, which coincides well with enhanced q- vector divergence along the aforementioned cold front. Anticipate this enhancement to travel eastward across the U.P. this evening, increasing snow chances across Alger and Luce Counties with it. It is in the wake of this front that conditions will become especially dangerous tonight with 850 mb temperatures sinking into the -20 to -25 C range. This will set up a northwest wind lake effect event through the weekend. As a result, this could put snow totals between the lake effect and frontal passage in the 6 to 8 inch range across the Keweenaw and Alger/northern Schoolcraft/Luce Counties through tomorrow. As mentioned above, the dangerously cold 850 mb temperatures will equate to surface temperatures in the -5 to -10F range across much of the interior west and central U.P. tonight. This combined with 30-40 mph WNW winds will create blowing snow and hazardous travel. Therefore, Winter Weather Advisories remain in effect across the Keweenaw and eastern counties along with a Cold Weather Advisory over Gogebic and Iron Counties where windchill values will plummet to -25 to -20F. Daytime highs Saturday will not recover much, either, with readings only in the single digits above zero across much of the west and central interior U.P. and low teens over the east. Saturday night, expect another dangerously cold night, but temperatures will bottom out just above headline criteria. Nonetheless, wind chills will still approach -10F over the west and central through Sunday morning. Further out, after a brief lull late Sunday night, focus will turn to another weak shortwave progged for Monday/Monday night. But, snowfall totals don't look particularily high with additional amounts across the eastern counties in the 1 to 3 inch range. This disturbance will then be replaced by zonal flow through mid-week across the U.P. while the next system tracks across central Canada. This setup will position the U.P. well for a warmup through Thursday as the forecast area falls in the warm sector of that system. Look for daytime highs from Tuesday through Thursday to top off above freezing for the first time in several weeks. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1224 AM EST Sat Dec 13 2025 IFR and LIFR conditions will continue at CMX and IWD through the TAF period. Lake effect snow showers and windy conditions are expected through tonight and Saturday. The combination of snow and blowing snow will result in reduced visibility, possibly to airport minimums at times for CMX. Very cold temperature profiles will keep snow flakes on the smaller size, further contributing to reduced visibility. SAW will see mainly MVFR but a period of VFR is expected overnight as the cloud cover breaks. Lake effect snow showers could move into SAW Saturday evening but there is still uncertainty, added a mention with prob30. && .MARINE... Issued at 356 PM EST Fri Dec 12 2025 Southwesterly winds will ramp up this afternoon and evening to 25 to 30 kts ahead of an approaching cold front, eventually becoming northwesterly and reaching gale criteria by Sat 00Z across the west- central portions of the lake and after Sat 06Z across the eastern half as well. Along with the frigid airmass will be a heavy freezing spray threat for the entire lake; therefore, both Gale and Heavy Freezing Spray Warnings remain in effect into Sunday morning. The exception will be west of the Keweenaw, where gales and the associated gale warning will drop off after Sat 06Z. The remaining gales will then fall below 20 kts across the east half of the lake as well early Sunday morning. Further out, southwest winds will increase again to 25 to 30 kts Sunday night into Monday across much of the lake. Gale potential continues for west-central portions of the lake, but the models continue to struggle on the intensity of this event. So, this will continue to be monitored. Then after a lull from Monday evening into Tuesday morning, focus will quickly turn to a stronger event progged for Wednesday/Thursday. Gale potential is already in the 50-70% range for this event. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for MIZ001>003. Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for MIZ006- 007-085. Cold Weather Advisory until 9 AM CST Saturday for MIZ009-010. Lake Superior... Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 1 AM EST /midnight CST/ Sunday for LSZ162. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ Sunday for LSZ240>244-263-264. Gale Warning until 1 AM EST early this morning for LSZ242-243- 263. Gale Warning until 7 AM EST Sunday for LSZ244>246-248>251- 264>267. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 7 AM EST Sunday for LSZ245- 248>251-265>267. Lake Michigan... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...TDUD AVIATION...NL MARINE...TDUD