####018005383#### FXUS64 KMOB 100550 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 1250 AM CDT Sun May 10 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1248 AM CDT Sun May 10 2026 - Strong to severe thunderstorms and heavy rainfall potentially resulting in localized flash flooding remain possible through Monday. - Patchy fog may develop later this morning across areas mainly north of I-10. Some localized dense fog might develop. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1248 AM CDT Sun May 10 2026 Our rather soggy week will be coming to a close as our final upper shortwave will move through the region by Monday before our next pattern flip occurs. Broad west-southwesterly flow remains in place over the area through the day today with very subtle shortwave ridging over the area tonight. The biggest concern overnight will be the potential for patchy fog as guidance has honed in on our interior areas mainly north of I-10. Currently mid-level clouds are progressing across the area but once these move east of our area and some breaks occur then patchy fog should be able to develop. Some locations may be dense but as of now confidence in dense fog is too low to warrant any products. Sunday should be mostly dry as shortwave ridging moves off to the east; however, a few storms cannot be ruled out during the late afternoon as low level advection begin to increase ahead of the next systems and destabilization occurs during the afternoon. OVerall it'll just be a warm and muggy day tomorrow as highs climb into the 80s with dewpoints in the low 70s. The main system arrives on Monday as a shortwave trough ejects across the deep south. Rather stout upper diffluence will quickly move across the area during the late afternoon and evening hours. Storms will likely form along a boundary draped from west to east across the area. Looking at forecast soundings and there is certainly the potential for a few stronger storms with hail and damaging winds as the primary threats. Low level shear is rather paltry but strong deep layer shear around 40 knots could support some organized clusters and potentially a transient supercell or two during the afternoon. Deep moist profiles generally tend to not be supportive of large hail; however, weak storm relative inflows, decent instability within the hail growth zone could support severe hail in any transient supercellular structures that do develop. Damaging winds could also be possible if any bowing segments/clusters do develop and are able to mix down stronger mid- level winds. On-top of the low end potential for some strong to severe storms, heavy rainfall will be possible. PWATS will be in the 1.8 to 2 inch range and with plenty of instability, some heavier rainfall rates could be possible leading to localized flooding concerns. Luckily even with all the rain we have had we are still in a rather significant drought which is likely keeping us from more significant flooding concerns. By Monday night the upper shortwave will quickly move east ushering in a significantly drier pattern by midweek. Upper ridging will strengthen over the central US leading to dry and slightly cooler northwesterly flow to develop through the remainder of the week. This upper ridge will flatten out and shift eastward with time leading to a gradual warmup through the weekend as highs top out in the 90s by Saturday and Sunday. Rain will be hard to come by for the foreseeable future and our first real taste of the upcoming summer will be upon us by early next week. BB-8 && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1248 AM CDT Sun May 10 2026 MVFR ceilings are currently in place for much of the local area at issuance time. Over the next couple hours, this cloud deck should erode, allowing for fog/low stratus to develop, possibly bringing IFR to LIFR conditions to much of the area. Any fog/stratus that does manage to develop will dissipate a little after sunrise. VFR conditions are expected to become prevalent for the afternoon and evening hours. Light and variable winds tonight will become a light southeasterly to southerly flow by the afternoon. /96 && .MARINE... Issued at 1248 AM CDT Sun May 10 2026 A light onshore flow returns tonight through Sunday night. Winds turn westerly then northerly through the day on Monday behind a cold front. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will accompany the front on Monday afternoon and evening. A few storms could be strong. Winds briefly increase Monday night before A light easterly to northeasterly flow develops on Tuesday and turns westerly by mid-week. BB-8 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 84 67 82 61 / 40 40 70 10 Pensacola 81 70 81 64 / 30 50 80 30 Destin 81 70 80 65 / 40 40 70 30 Evergreen 84 63 81 56 / 60 50 60 10 Waynesboro 83 64 80 54 / 40 50 50 0 Camden 82 63 79 54 / 40 50 50 0 Crestview 85 65 83 59 / 50 40 80 30 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ ####018005546#### FXUS61 KOKX 100551 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 151 AM EDT Sun May 10 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Confidence is decreasing for a widespread rainfall event Sunday night into Monday, especially across the interior. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Areas of of fog tonight into early Sunday morning. 2) Chance of showers Sunday afternoon and then rain Sunday night into Monday. 3) Unsettled weather expected toward mid to late next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Confidence is higher for fog development tonight into early tomorrow morning after the rain ends, especially for Long Island and southern CT, where the fog could become locally dense late tonight. Should dense fog become widespread, a dense fog advisory may need to be issued. KEY MESSAGE 2... Sunday morning and early afternoon looks to be mostly dry between systems as a cold front approaches from the west. Scattered showers are possible from mid to late afternoon from NYC north/west. A more organized rainfall event is then expected Sunday night into Monday as an amplifying upper trough sends the cold front across, with one or more weak frontal waves passing well to the south and east. Another 1/4 to 1/2 inch of beneficial rainfall is expected, with lesser amounts of 1/10 to 1/4 inch NW of NYC. Highs on Sunday have the potential to near 80 degrees in portions of NE NJ and NYC metro. Otherwise, highs will be in the 70s across the area. The chance for thunder appears low in the afternoon/evening, but a few thunderstorms are possible given strong warming at the surface if timed well with lift from the frontal boundary. KEY MESSAGE 3... Low pressure over the Northern Plains Tuesday is expected to dive southeast over the southern to central Great Lakes region Tuesday night, then eject off the Mid-Atlantic Coast late in the day Thursday into Thursday night. This coastal low then slowly heads northeast through the rest of the forecast period, with some slow strengthening. An inverted trough extending northward from the low as it passes south of the area will likely be the primary focus for showers for late Wednesday into Wednesday night. Of course, this far out, there are timing differences with the track and strength of the low, which would lead to differences in timing of any precipitation and amounts. This also leads to high uncertainty with the track of the eventual coastal low that passes south and east of the area at the end of the week, and whether we see any rainfall as it heads out to sea. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Terminals will be between systems as one exits to the east tonight and a cold front approaches from the west. The latter is expected to pass through the area Sunday evening. Widespread IFR/LIFR conditions continue to encompass the terminals overnight, lingering through at least 12Z. VLIFR also possible. Conditions then improve to VFR after 12Z Sunday with a chance of sub-VFR conditions in showers during the afternoon and evening hours. There is some uncertainty with the timing of development and then dissipation of the lower conditions. Winds are light and variable overnight. A light W-SW flow develops Sunday morning, increasing to around 10 kt in the afternoon. There is the potential for gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon, but confidence in not high due to uncertainty in the depth of the mixed layer. Winds will then veer to the NW-N in the evening behind the cold front. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... Amendments are likely overnight into Sunday morning due to some uncertainty with the timing of lowering categories tonight, and then the improvement on Sunday. Chance of gusts up to 20 kt Sunday afternoon. .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... Sunday Night: Chance of showers and MVFR in the evening. Showers likely, especially closer to the coast at night along with MVFR, potentially IFR at times. Monday: Chance of showers and MVFR early, especially near the coast, then VFR. Tuesday: Mainly VFR. NW winds G15-20 kt possible in the afternoon. Wednesday: Showers developing through the day. MVFR or lower conditions. S winds G15-25 kt in the afternoon and evening. Thursday: Showers possible with MVFR or lower conditions. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 && .MARINE... 5-ft seas are expected to linger into this evening on the ocean waters east of Fire Island Inlet, but dropping below by midnight. Sunday afternoon into Sunday night, another period of 5 ft seas is possible on eastern ocean waters with a cold frontal passage. Below SCA- criteria is then expected to remain through Tue Night. Waves build late in the day Wednesday as a southerly flow increases due to an approaching low pressure system to the west. SCA conditions are possible for the ocean waters for a brief period from Wednesday afternoon into the first half of Wednesday night. Thereafter, winds and waves are expected to remain below SCA criteria. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JP/BR AVIATION...MW MARINE...JP/BR ####018006632#### FXUS61 KCLE 100554 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 154 AM EDT Sun May 10 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Given the current trends, thunderstorms during the day seem less likely, though are still possible. Showers and thunderstorms still remain on track along and ahead of the cold front this evening. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Showers and thunderstorms are possible this afternoon with a higher chance along and ahead of the cold front this evening. Some storms may be strong to severe with possible isolated damaging winds and up to quarter size hail. 2) Below average temperatures with high pressure building in starting Sunday afternoon through Tuesday. Potential for frost/freeze Tuesday morning. 3) Unsettled weather returns mid week with a low pressure system moving through the Great Lakes region. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Residual low level clouds from early morning precipitation have started to dissipate in western and northern Ohio and should continue to clear out throughout the afternoon. Temperatures as a result have started to climb up into the low to mid 60s with dew points in the low 50s. Instability will increase as well with the temperatures, though how much it increases will be dependent on if temperatures can climb a bit higher in the upper 60s to low 70s. Currently, MLCAPE is forecast to be around 500-1000 J/kg and MUCAPE near 1000 J/kg by later this afternoon with a few areas possibly reaching above that. Winds shear will also increase ahead of the approaching cold front, though will be on the weaker side with bulk shear around 40 knots. Freezing levels will be low as well, which could support some hail, though given the conditions above, hail around quarter size or less seems realistic. There will also be a strong with an isolated damaging wind threat along and ahead of the cold front. The cold front will pass through the region between late tonight into early tomorrow morning which could carry a strong wind threat with it. Though with instability waning into the late evening, the severe threat will become less likely and should anticipate more showers than thunderstorms. Scattered rain showers will likely linger behind the cold front across the southern and eastern portions of the CWA into Sunday morning. High pressure builds in Sunday afternoon and rain will clear out by then. Rain totals through tomorrow morning will be minimal, with highest amounts in more persistent rainfall being around a half an inch. KEY MESSAGE 2... High pressure will begin to build in Sunday afternoon with generally west to northwesterly low level flow across the region through Tuesday afternoon. Current models have 850 temperatures dropping down to 0 to -3C Monday afternoon into Tuesday morning with winds becoming light to calm during the time frame underneath the high pressure. Drier upper level air will be moving in late Monday as well which should clear the region out of any cloud cover by Tuesday. This will create the potential for some frost/freeze across the region Tuesday morning as temperatures will drop down into the mid to upper 30s with some locations dropping into the low 30s. The colder of those temperatures look to be in eastern Ohio and northwestern Pennsylvania away from the lakeshore. Flow will shift to be out of the southwest Tuesday afternoon on the west side of the high pressure and temperatures will climb into the upper 50s to low 60s for highs. KEY MESSAGE 3... A low pressure system will enter the region late Tuesday night as a upper level trough ejects out of the Canadian plains and moves southeast into the Great Lakes region. Precipitation will begin to move in late Tuesday night and persist through much of the day Wednesday. Don't anticipate much thunder with the system given the arrival time, though a rumble of thunder would still be possible out west Tuesday night and then again out east with the front midday Wednesday. Moderate to heavy rain is possible at times which could lead to some higher precipitation totals by the end of the day Wednesday. Will need to monitor the development of the system over the next few days to see the potential for any rainfall related impacts. && .AVIATION /06Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/... At the surface, a cold front, augmented by precip-cooled air from showers and thunderstorms, extended SW'ward from just east and south of KDKK, NY to near KPOV, OH to just north and west of KMFD, OH and KMNN, OH at 05:45Z/Sun. This front continues moving SE'ward and should exit the rest of our region by 09Z/Sun. Behind the front, a high pressure ridge builds slowly from the Canadian Prairies and vicinity through 06Z/Mon. Ahead of the front, our regional surface winds trend S'erly to SW'erly around 5 to 10 knots. Behind the front, surface winds trend W'erly to NE'erly around 5 to 10 knots through 06Z/Mon. Isolated showers and thunderstorms with brief MVFR to LIFR are expected along and ahead of the surface cold front, but confidence in this convection impacting any TAF site remains low. VFR are expected outside the showers/storms. Behind the surface front, dry weather and VFR are expected through 06Z/Mon. Outlook...Periodic showers and thunderstorms with non-VFR are expected Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday night. Non-VFR may linger across the eastern-half of the area due to rain showers and low ceilings this Thursday. && .MARINE... Generally quiet marine conditions are expected into early next week with no headlines anticipated. Main concern will be the threat for strong thunderstorms later this afternoon and evening with the potential for gusty winds in excess of 34 knots, particularly across the central and eastern basin of Lake Erie. Otherwise, relatively light winds of less than 15 knots are expected through Tuesday. Slightly stronger south to southwest flow of 15 to 20 knots will develop Tuesday night into Wednesday ahead of a cold front, with winds shifting towards the west to northwest behind the front Wednesday night, 15 to 20 knots. Will continue to monitor for Small Craft potential during this period. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...23 AVIATION...Jaszka MARINE...Kahn ####018004454#### FXUS61 KBUF 100554 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 154 AM EDT Sun May 10 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No changes to the forecast with this update. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Cooler but mainly dry today, some patchy frost possible tonight. 2) Cool but relatively dry weather Monday through Tuesday with widespread frost Monday night. 3) Unsettled weather returns by the middle of the week with periods of rain Tuesday night through Thursday. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Cooler but mainly dry today, some patchy frost possible tonight. A few showers will be possible as the cold front gradually works east through the region overnight. With the front to our east, we should see mainly dry weather today but we still can't rule out a stray shower or sprinkle. Otherwise...it will be cooler with temperatures peaking in the 50s, maybe a few spots hit 60F this afternoon. Tonight...we should see mainly clear skies and decent radiational cooling resulting in lows in the 30s inland away from the lakes. With light winds we may see some patch frost, especially in the colder Southern Tier valleys and east of Lake Ontario (Lewis County). KEY MESSAGE 2...Cool but relatively dry weather Monday through Tuesday with widespread frost Monday night. A mid level trough will cross the eastern Great Lakes Monday afternoon and evening, bringing a period of large scale ascent. Despite the increase in forcing, deep moisture will be lacking with just a shallow layer of low level moisture available. The best chance of a few showers will be across the Saint Lawrence Valley and northern NY where the strongest forcing will be found. Elsewhere, expect mainly dry conditions with just a slight chance of a passing light shower. Surface high pressure will drift east across the Great Lakes Monday night, settling overhead by Tuesday morning. Clearing skies and diminishing winds in a cool airmass will allow for strong radiational cooling. Lows will drop into the low to mid 30s areawide, with some upper 20s likely in the colder Southern Tier Valleys and Tug Hill region. This will bring widespread frost and freeze conditions Monday night through Tuesday morning. KEY MESSAGE 3...Unsettled weather returns by the middle of the week with periods of rain Tuesday night through Thursday. A mid level trough over the upper Great Lakes Tuesday night will advance slowly east to the eastern Great Lakes Wednesday night, then to the eastern seaboard Thursday night where it will evolve into a mid level closed low. A surface low will take a similar track, crossing the eastern Great Lakes late Wednesday through early Thursday. A wing of warm advection and moisture transport will arrive ahead of the system from west to east Tuesday night, with rain spreading into the region. The slow moving mid level trough will continue to bring ascent and deep moisture, supporting periods of rain Wednesday through much of Thursday. Model guidance is in good agreement on the overall timing and placement of rain Wednesday through Thursday, but there is still considerable spread on rainfall amounts. Even the higher end of the ensemble envelope would not produce enough rainfall for any flooding, so while it will be unsettled, the rain will not be too impactful. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A few showers will be possible overnight with some MVFR cigs. With the exit of the front, VFR will resume across all area terminals today. Outlook... Monday through Tuesday...Mainly VFR. Wednesday...MVFR/IFR with showers and a few thunderstorms. Thursday...IFR/MVFR improving to MVFR/VFR with showers ending through the day. && .MARINE... Elevated winds behind the front will produce choppy conditions on area lakes today, with the potential for near small craft advisory levels on the east end of Lake Ontario. Lighter winds and wave action expected Monday through Tuesday. The next chance of Small Craft conditions possible by Wednesday as low pressure sends a cold front towards the region. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...AR/Hitchcock AVIATION...AR MARINE...AR ####018007466#### FXUS61 KBGM 100554 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 154 AM EDT Sun May 10 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Made minor adjustments to cloud cover, wind gusts and chances of precipitation today. Added in area of frost tonight, where it clears out and temperatures drop into the low or mid 30s. Widespread frost and some freeze conditions are expected Monday night into Tuesday morning, as temperatures were lowered by a few degrees in this update. Isolated showers were added to the forecast Monday afternoon as the area destabilizes under the upper level trough. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Rain showers will be mainly ending early this morning, but breezy west-northwest winds are expected this afternoon. A few isolated showers or perhaps a stray thunderstorm cannot be rule out for portions of Northeast PA or the southern Catskills of New York this afternoon. 2) A cold air mass will combine with surface ridging, diminishing winds and clearing skies to bring the potential for frost tonight into Monday morning. Even colder temperatures are expected under a large high pressure center Monday night into early Tuesday morning. A widespread frost and possible freeze event is expected. 3) A few isolated showers will be possible on Monday as a weak shortwave rotates through the area under a large upper level trough. Otherwise, the weather is looking mainly dry and mostly sunny Monday into Tuesday. 4) Wet, cool and unsettled weather looks to return mid to late week as the next slow moving upper level low and associated surface wave moves through the are Tuesday night through Thursday or Friday. Then drying out and warming up next weekend. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... A weak frontal boundary will stall over NE PA this morning and linger through the day. There could be some scattered showers lingering in the early to mid morning hours for portions of Central NY, mainly east of I-81 and down into NE PA. As another weak shortwave approaches it may reignites some isolated showers or a stray thunderstorm this afternoon across NE PA or the southern Catskills. There is very limited moisture, instability, only around 200 J/kg of MLCAPE, with LIs around -1. Overall, skies are forecast to clear and become mostly sunny over most of Central NY this afternoon and evening. With the increasing sunshine, temperatures will moderate, reaching the upper 50s to mid-60s across our CNY zones, with 60s to low 70s expected in NE PA. Breezy west-northwest winds are expected, and wind gusts were increased in the forecast to be more in line with the latest LAV guidance; this gave sustained winds of 7-15 mph, with gusts 20 to 25 mph. KEY MESSAGE 2... Drier air and weak high pressure slides into the area tonight. Winds should diminish quickly after sunset, decoupling and dropping to under 5 mph overnight. Skies look to remain mainly clear over most of Central NY, with an increase in mid to high level clouds in NE PA after midnight. As temperatures drop into the 30s areas of frost are certainly possible across most of our CNY counties. Will hold off on issuing any frost advisories at this time, and let the next shift take a look at one more round of updated guidance to increase confidence on exactly where will see the best chance at frost. Monday night will be the coldest night of the week, with a 1025mb surface high firmly entrenched over the region. Skies will be clear and winds light once again. Blended in some of the colder guidance to bring lows down a bit from the deterministic NBM guidance. Expecting lows well down into the 30s areawide, with widespread frost and even some freeze potential. If confidence continues to grow that this scenario will indeed play out, freeze watches and/or frost advisories would be needed for portions, if not all of the forecast area. KEY MESSAGE 3... Monday will feature partly sunny conditions and mainly dry weather. However, the latest guidance is showing that a weak mid level shortwave will drop through the area in the afternoon. This wave will bring a slight increase in moisture with it, along with increasing instability associated with the cold air aloft (and modest daytime heating at the surface). With this in mind, decided to go above the NBM, and bring in the potential for isolated pop up showers as this feature drops NW to SE across the area. Any showers should be light and brief in nature. With 850mb temperatures around -1C in the afternoon, it will be another cool and breezy day, with highs only reaching into the 50s (except low 60s Wyoming Valley). Tuesday will feature mostly sunny and dry (but still cool) weather under a large surface high pressure system. KEY MESSAGE 4... The next upper level trough/low begins to drop toward the region from the Great Lakes Tuesday night into Wednesday. Models are in good agreement, lending to higher confidence, that periods of rain will develop later Tuesday night, continue all day Wednesday, Wednesday night and into Thursday as the slow moving upper level feature traverses our area. Temperatures will remain cool under the upper trough, held down by all the clouds and rain as well. Look for overnight lows in the 40s, Tuesday through Thursday night and daytime highs only in the 50s to low 60s once again. It is a little early to pin down forecast rainfall amounts, but probabilities for greater than a half inch are increasing. It finally looks to gradually dry out and warm up heading into next weekend, and perhaps the following week as well. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Clouds have scattered out around the terminals early this evening, but another round of quick-hitting showers is expected with the next upper-level shortwave and frontal boundary working their way through tonight. With the late-day breaks of sunshine, some modest instability has developed, so an isolated thunderstorm embedded in the line of showers cannot be ruled out, but given low confidence on where some lingering lightning strikes may be, this will be handled via TEMPO as necessary. The main timeframe for the next batch of showers to move through is 03Z-07Z. Behind the frontal boundary, there can be a brief period of lowering ceilings prior to or around daybreak, especially around the NY terminals, before west to northwesterly winds increase during the mid-morning and into the afternoon and usher in drier air and the return of VFR conditions. With a light and variable wind becoming more southwesterly early tomorrow morning, some patchy fog can't be ruled out at AVP coming up the Wyoming Valley. Wind gusts of 20 to 25 knots are expected tomorrow after 15Z-16Z. A few isolated showers can't be ruled out tomorrow afternoon around AVP, generally after 18Z. Outlook: Sunday Night...Mainly VFR. Monday through Tuesday evening...Mainly VFR. Wednesday through Thursday...Showers likely with associated restrictions as low pressure pivots into the region. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...MJM AVIATION...BJT/DK ####018005068#### FXUS64 KSHV 100555 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 1255 AM CDT Sun May 10 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1200 AM CDT Sun May 10 2026 - Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms, some strong to severe will be possible across most of the Four State Region Today through at least this evening. - We begin to dry out late on Monday with a warming trend in the mid to late week timeframe. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1200 AM CDT Sun May 10 2026 Complex forecast today through tonight which could result in a threat of strong to severe thunderstorms with locally heavy rainfall but the ingredients for this need to come together at the right time and the timing and location of all this is far from certain. Those complications begin currently with a complex of strong storms across portions of Central and Southern Oklahoma which has shown a tendency over the last hour or two to weaken in intensity but expand in coverage. Some high res progs and CAM output are latching on to this complex and forcing it into our region overnight towards the predawn hours Sunday with a severe wind and/or hail threat. Other solutions are decaying this complex as it nears our northwest zones and this seems to be the more plausible solution given that the stout moisture axis in the 700-850mb layer is not there overnight like Friday Night, not to mention we lack the deep layer shear in the 0-6km layer we had last night. Having said all this, we are currently in northwest flow aloft and this type of weather pattern is always the great equalizer when it comes to proving one wrong just when you think you have a good handle on the above listed ingredients. The current shortwave embedded in this flow aloft is subtle but the one that will be moving out of the OK/TX Pnhdle appears to be much more substantial and is poised to possibly impact our region by late morning but especially during the afternoon and evening hours tonight. The million dollar question is will there be enough of the current complex moving into our region during the morning hours today to disturb the atmosphere enough such that the worst of a severe weather threat and impacts may be west of our region. SPC's Sunday Convective Outlook hints at this with more of an Enhanced Risk of Severe storms west of our region and this appears to be where the best instability axis will exist today in advance of the upper forcing associated with the disturbance embedded in this northwest flow aloft pattern. Still believe we could see a damaging wind and/or a hail threat later today/this evening but the bigger threat does appear to be to our west during this timeframe. The longwave trough moves ovhd late tonight and through the day Monday with the trough departing our region Monday Night and that will begin a drying trend that should last most if not all of the upcoming work week. A strong ridge axis will take the place of the longwave trough across the Tx Hill Country and this feature will slowly expand eastward through the week thus, the warming trend from day to day through the week. 13 && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1254 AM CDT Sun May 10 2026 For the 10/06Z TAFs, area terminals are seeing CIGs tank to IFR and LIFR levels, accompanied by periodic VSBY reductions, which will likely become more widespread as winds become nearly calm towards daybreak. Given the brevity of fog thusfar, accounting for impacts with TEMPO groups. Will amend as needed. Meanwhile, storms in southeastern Oklahoma and north Texas look to enter our northwestern airspace in the next hour or so. Impacts will depend on how well these storms hold together, and if they do, most likely will affect KTXK and the I-30 corridor. Further thunderstorms are possible late in this forecast period, into the morning hours and again in the afternoon. Winds will be light to nearly calm overnight, remaining light and variable into the daytime hours, at maximum sustained speeds of about 5 kts. /26/ && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Issued at 1200 AM CDT Sun May 10 2026 Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible Today through at least this evening. Therefore, spotter activation will likely be needed during this timeframe. 13 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 83 65 76 58/ 60 60 40 0 MLU 85 65 78 57/ 60 60 40 0 DEQ 78 58 76 50/ 70 60 40 0 TXK 82 62 76 54/ 70 60 40 0 ELD 82 60 75 52/ 60 60 40 0 TYR 83 64 75 58/ 60 60 40 0 GGG 83 64 76 57/ 60 60 40 0 LFK 86 67 79 61/ 40 60 40 0 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...13 AVIATION...26