####018008294#### FXUS66 KOTX 261010 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 310 AM PDT Fri Apr 26 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Friday will feature another round of showers, some capable of thunder in the northern mountains and ID Panhandle. The weekend and early next week will feature showery weather over the mountains and seasonably cool temperatures. Sunday and Monday have the potential to be windy with the passage of a frontal system. && .DISCUSSION... Showers will persist through much of the day as a surface low off the WA coast slowly moves inland. Models indicate a slim chance (15%) of thunder with some surface based instability building in the northern mountains, Panhandle, and SE WA late this morning into the early afternoon. Looking at some short-range ensemble soundings, I am not sold on any strikes given the huge differences of instability between the surface based parcel and a mixed layer parcel. Pockets of heating from the sun will spark shower activity nonetheless. The upper low quickly moves south of our area tonight but another shortwave moving in bringing additional chances of showers to the region for Saturday. Models indicate a slim chance (15%) of thunder with some surface based instability building in the northern mountains Saturday, but again, not sold on this potential given how little instability there is for a mixed layer parcel. /Butler Sunday - Tuesday: The start of the new week will come with several days of windy conditions, cooling temperatures, and periods of showers...especially in the mountains. Midlevel flow on Sunday will start off westerly then begin to buckle to the southwest as a deeper low carves into the mean trough. A strengthening surface low east of Canadian Rockies will result in increasing southerly winds through the day. Winds have decreased slightly from earlier runs but still are noticeably breezy to gusty with sustained winds of 10-20 mph and gusts up to 30 mph. The cold core shortwave swings into the Northwest Sunday night and Monday with continued windy conditions. Winds continue to be driven by a strong pressure gradient toward lower pressure over southern Alberta and further enhanced with cold air advection. Wind direction will become more westerly with time as well, especially into Monday afternoon. Based on probabilities for sustained wind speeds of 20 mph or greater - Sunday and Monday indicate very little difference (both around 40%) for much of the Central Columbia Basin. The main difference will be the directional change from south/southwest to southwest/west. Majority of the European members suggest the gusts will be several mph higher for Monday vs Sunday for locations like Wenatchee, Moses Lake, Pullman, and Spokane. For the Okanogan Valley, Sunday looks be the windiest day given the alignment with the north to south valley. In general wind gusts over the two days will peak around 30-35 mph yet some isolated gusts around 45 mph cannot be ruled out with the shortwave passage Sunday night and Monday on the higher benches around Wenatchee, Waterville Plateau, and in the foothills of the Blue Mountains. Westerly winds remain breezy on Tuesday but speeds are roughly 1/2 of those from Monday. Current thinking is Sunday will provide a period of drying from the recent rainfall and Monday could be the day most vulnerable to patchy blowing dust in the Western Columbia Basin. We know agriculture practices are in full swing for planting but predicting blowing dust always comes with low confidence, especially without very warm and dry conditions during the winds. In regards to precipitation, scattered showers will mainly focus over the Cascade Crest and into the rising terrain of Northeastern WA and North Idaho. Showers will expand at times into the eastern Basin and Palouse with the greatest threat coming with the shortwave passage Sunday night and Monday. A few lightning strikes will also be possible with weak thunderstorms in the afternoon. Snow levels will be crashing closer to 3000-3500 feet Sunday night and Monday as 850mb temperatures drop near 0C. Consequently, snow is likely to fall along the Cascade Passes. Forecast has 4-6 inches of snow at Stevens Pass and 2-4 inches at Washington Pass from Sunday evening through Monday morning. Those venturing across the passes should be prepared for winter travel conditions during this time. Additional snow showers will continue Monday but the April sun angle offers little hope for snow to accumulate on roads after 9-10AM. It not be as snowy at Lookout Pass during this time-frame with only an inch predicted Sunday night into Monday morning though conditions could change so be sure to up to date if traveling early Monday morning. Monday will be the coolest day of the period with most communities only reaching the 50s and a handful of low 60s in the lower Basin. Sunday and Tuesday will be more seasonal with upper 50s-60s. Those with sensitive plants may want to keep an eye on Tuesday morning lows near freezing within the mountain valleys and across the upper Basin. Wednesday - Friday: There is a 70% chance that shortwave ridging arrives Wednesday. This scenario will promote light east/southeast winds and temperatures in the 60s. A few showers will linger in the Idaho Panhandle while the Cascades dries out. The other 30% of the ensembles say no-no and the trough will persist with cooler temperatures and more widely scattered afternoon showers. Follwing Wednesday 60% of the ensemble members showing another trough into the Northwest while the other 40% are in some sort of transition from ridge to trough. Any blended forecast approach like the NBM is expected to struggle resolving these details and it's difficult to extract details in the forecast. If the trough was to remain off the coast, temperatures will be warmer than forecast and the opposite can be said if the trough comes inland. These differences will also impact the forecasted precipitation chances. Needless to say, there is a lot of uncertainty with the details for late next week so stay tuned. /sb && .AVIATION... 06Z TAFS: A front will continue to push east and lower level moisture in the boundary is expected to expand in lower stratus, near GEG/SFF/COE/PUW and more limited near LWS. Overall MVFR conditions are projected through the morning, then conditions improve with VFR with additional shower chances expanding. Toward central WA, including MWH and EAT and OMK, look for mainly VFR condition. Showers are possible near EAT and OMK. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Moderate to high confidence in MVFR cigs over GEG/SFF/COE/PUW overnight/Friday morning. Low confidence in IFR conditions. Low to moderate confidence in MVFR conditions are LWS. Low confidence in MVFR/IFR conditions at MWH/EAT/OMK. ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https://www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Spokane 60 42 61 40 59 40 / 30 20 20 10 10 20 Coeur d'Alene 58 42 59 41 56 39 / 50 20 40 20 20 30 Pullman 58 40 58 39 57 38 / 40 20 20 10 10 40 Lewiston 64 46 65 46 65 45 / 40 20 10 10 0 30 Colville 60 38 61 36 59 36 / 70 50 70 30 30 50 Sandpoint 55 42 57 41 53 40 / 70 40 70 40 60 60 Kellogg 56 43 56 43 53 40 / 70 50 70 30 60 60 Moses Lake 66 40 66 40 65 40 / 10 10 0 0 0 0 Wenatchee 63 44 62 42 61 40 / 40 30 0 0 0 10 Omak 63 43 66 39 63 39 / 50 40 20 10 0 10 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. WA...None. && $$ ####018005342#### FXUS63 KDDC 261011 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 511 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - There is an enhanced risk of severe storms Saturday afternoon and evening across central Kansas. - Near critical fire weather is expected today. Critical fire weather conditions will occur Saturday across the southwest corner of Kansas. - Dry weather is expected Sunday through Tuesday. There are small chances for thunderstorms mid next week, particularly across central Kansas. - In the absence of strong cold fronts, expect warm weather through next week, with highs generally in the 70s and 80s and lows in the 40s and 50s. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 310 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024 Southwest Kansas will be between upper level systems today. The dry slot with the overnight upper level trough is sweeping across the area so that today will be warm and dry with southwest winds and highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s. The next upper level trough will develop across the southwestern USA Friday and Friday night. The low level moist axis, having been shunted into eastern Kansas and central and eastern Oklahoma today, will retreat westward into south central Kansas as the next upper level trough approaches. The main forcing with this system is set to arrive Saturday evening. However, thunderstorm initiation may occur by mid afternoon Saturday with daytime heating over Barber, Pratt and Stafford counties and points east. When two upper level systems are close together, the low to mid level capping inversion is usually weaker with the trailing system. If storms do not form in the afternoon Saturday, initiation is likely Saturday evening as the stronger forcing for ascent arrives and low level convergence increases. These storms will likely be severe with very large hail, damaging winds and possibly tornadoes. As far as the details are concerned, we will know a lot more Friday night (a day ahead of the event). For example, we will have a much better idea of how far west the low level moisture will be progress Saturday evening as the forcing arrives. For now, the best chance of severe storms is across parts of central Kansas per Day 2 SPC outlook that shows an enhanced risk of severe storms. This outlook shows a 10% hatched tornado area (meaning there is a 10% chance of a significant tornado within 25 miles of a given point) from Pratt and Medicine Lodge north to Hays. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 310 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024 Saturday evening's upper level trough will pass off to the east by Sunday, with low level moisture exiting southwest Kansas. Zonal mid to high level flow will develop across the northern plains, along with embedded disturbances and weak frontal passages. This is typically a dry pattern for central and southwest Kansas. Based on the various ensemble means including the ECMWF, ICON, CMCE and GEFS, a strong, embedded upper level trough will pass north of Kansas Tuesday and push a front through Kansas. A southern branch disturbance is also indicated across the southern plains. With low level moisture poised across the southern plains, there will be small to moderate chances for thunderstorms mid next week. The ensemble mean rainfall for the various models is highest across central Kansas and lowest across far western Kansas. Even across central Kansas the probability of rainfall greater than .5" is only 10 to 30%. Generally mild weather is forecast through next week in the absence of any strong cold fronts. This generally means highs in the 70s and 80s and lows in the 40s and 50s. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 508 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024 Southwest to west winds at 10-20 kts can be expected today in the wake of a weak frontal boundary. Winds will drop off to light and variable this evening. VFR conditions will persist. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 310 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024 Near critical fire weather conditions will exist this afternoon across southwest Kansas. Humidity will drop to near 15% by afternoon from Liberal west to Elkhart, with 20 to 25% values farther northeast. However, winds will be marginal in the driest area, with sustained winds only 12-15 kts. A few gusts over 25 mph are likely; but this is almost an every day occurrence on the high plains, and red flag warnings are best reserved for windier days when large wildfires can quickly get out of control. Critical fire weather conditions are likely Saturday afternoon behind a dry line. Strong southwest winds with gusts to 40 mph are expected, along with humidity between 10 and 15%. This area is southwest and west of Dodge City including Liberal, Lakin, Ulysses and Meade. There has been some greenup even across this area; but much less so than farther east. Upon coordination, it was decided to hold off on headlines for now. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Finch LONG TERM...Finch AVIATION...Finch FIRE WEATHER...Finch ####018005662#### FXUS65 KLKN 261012 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 312 AM PDT Fri Apr 26 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Widespread rainfall, isolated thunderstorms, and high mountain snow continue today, exiting the forecast area tonight. Drier conditions settle in for the weekend as well as next week, although an unsettled pattern will likely keep afternoon winds breezy and introduce low probabilities for light rain showers across portions of northern Nevada at times thru the period. && .SHORT TERM...Today through Saturday Night Continued wet weather today as an upper wave progresses thru the forecast area. Valley rain showers will be across the region with mountain snow, snow levels residing around 7000 feet with any significant snow accumulation relegated to the high mountains. Thunderstorms will also be in place across the region this afternoon capable of producing lightning, small hail, and gusty outflow winds. Continued potential for sharp rises in faster responding streams and creeks under prolonged or heavier rain showers, especially with flowages running high thanks to seasonal snow melt. Additional valley rain accumulations today between 0.15" and 0.50" though some locales may exceed 0.75", particularly the eastern half of White Pine County. Showers dissipate and exit to the east tonight. Breezy north/northwest winds will also be across the region today and tonight with gusts in the 25 to 35 mph range. Temperatures cool further with daytime highs in the mid 40s to mid 50s and overnight lows in the mid 20s to mid 30s. Fairer weather Saturday with hints of sunshine under partly cloudy skies. Any showers lingering in the morning are expected to dissipate by the afternoon. Breezy northwest winds will persist before trending lighter overnight. Slightly warmer with daytime high temperatures mostly in the 50s, though overnight lows again reside in the mid 20s to mid 30s. && .LONG TERM...Sunday through next Thursday. Northwest flow will commence Saturday night and Sunday. Leftover rain showers will continue Sunday afternoon with light accumulations mainly in northern Elko county. Afternoon gusts to 20 mph will be likely with highs in the 50s and 60s. Clouds are expected to scatter out during the overnight with quiet and dry weather. Overnight lows will be in the 30s. A weak trough will move in during the early morning hours Monday with light showers for northern Elko county. Accumulations will be light with amounts of a trace to 0.05 inches. Winds will be breezy to locally windy with gusts to 35 mph. Highs will warm several degrees with readings in the 60s. Look for the showers to end by the overnight with lows in the 20s and 30s. Tuesday through Thursday, another wave is expected to pass just north of the area on Tuesday with an afternoon of breezy winds and partly sunny skies. Look for quieter weather for Wednesday. Highs will be in the 60s and 70s for both afternoons with lows in the 30s and 40s. Look for increasing clouds and an increasing chance for showers on Thursday with highs in the 70s and overnight lows in the 30s and 40s. && .AVIATION...Intermittent MVFR/IFR conditions are possible today with VCTS and -SHRA across all terminals except KTPH. Breezy winds from the W-NW expected to affect all TAF sites, increasing to 20-25 knots Friday afternoon with gusts as high as 35-40 knots at KTPH. && .HYDROLOGY...Elevated flows continue across many streams, creeks, and rivers throughout northern and central Nevada due to snow melt. Active weather including valley and mid-elevation rain showers continue today before dissipating tonight. Additional wetting rains are expected and awareness should be exercised for sharp rises in faster responding streams and creeks under prolonged or heavier rain showers, especially with flows running high due to seasonal snow melt. Cooler temperatures are also expected the next few days, including freezing temperatures at night at higher elevations, which will likely slow high elevation snow melt. The Bruneau River is currently in minor flood stage. The river likely remains in minor flood stage over the next several days. The Humboldt River at Battle Mountain is currently in action stage and is expected to gradually rise in the coming days. The river is forecast to approach minor flood stage by the end of next week. The Owyhee River near Wildhorse is currently in action stage and expected to gradually rise in the coming days. The river is forecast to reach minor flood stage by early next week. The Owyhee River near Mountain City is currently in minor flood stage. The river is forecast to remain in minor flood stage over the next several days. Wildhorse Dam is currently in action stage and is expected to continue to reside in action stage for the next several days. The Humboldt River at Comus is currently in action stage and is forecast to continue to reside in action stage for the next several days. Mary's River near Deeth currently in action stage and is expected to gradually rise in the coming days. The river is forecast to reach minor flood stage early next week. && .LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories... Winter Weather Advisory until 5 AM PDT Saturday Ruby Mountains and East Humboldt Range. Winter Weather Advisory until 5 AM PDT Saturday ABOVE 7000 FEET in White Pine County. && $$ 92/98/90