####018003931#### FXUS63 KSGF 090541 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 1141 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Precipitation chances remain less than 10% areawide through Saturday. - Near to above average temperatures Tuesday through Thursday. - Cold air settles in Friday night through Saturday night. Overnight wind chills in the teens to single digits are possible. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1255 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025 The stratus deck that was blanketing southern Missouri this morning will continue to break up throughout the afternoon, though a few scattered clouds may linger. Despite the clearing, warm air advection looks to arrive too late to realize much actual heating today, and high temperatures will remain below average. However, a passing mid-level shortwave impulse and increasing southwesterly winds will aid in warmer air advecting into the region by Tuesday. Afternoon highs look to top out in the mid to upper 50s. While point forecast soundings suggest relatively low mixing heights, the tightening surface pressure gradient will support occasional wind gusts between 25 to 30 mph. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 1255 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025 Dry: The upper-level pattern will not be supportive of notable precipitation chances through the long term period; that is, global ensembles depict a longwave trough persisting across the eastern CONUS, keeping southwest Missouri and southeast Kansas in a dry northwest flow pattern through at least Sunday. Precipitation chances remain less than 10% through the long term forecast. Cold Weekend: A passing shortwave through the northern Plains and Midwest will drag a surface cold front through the region Thursday night into early Friday that will usher in a much colder airmass this weekend. The good news is that southwest Missouri and southeast Kansas will be spared from the coldest air, which will be across the Midwest and northeastern U.S. A glance at ensemble clusters reveals two primary solutions. The "warmer" solution-- mainly dominated by ECMWF members--keeps the aforementioned trough slightly flatter, or farther northeast. To that end, the ECMWF's Extreme Forecast Index and Shift of Tails therefore keep any extreme cold signal northeast of our area. The colder solution is comprised mainly of GEFS and GEPS members which allow the trough to intrude farther southwest. Indeed, this disagreement in the models is manifested in the NBM's large (10+ degrees) interquartile spread in temperatures beyond Friday. So what does this mean for actual temperatures? In the "warm" solution, low temperatures Friday night would generally be in the 20s with Saturday highs in the mid 30s to mid 40s. In the cold solution, lows Friday night would generally be in the teens to single digits with Saturday highs in the mid 20s to mid 30s. Wind chills in the single digits are possible. Regardless, there is high confidence that temperatures will fall well below normal late Friday through Saturday--the question is simply how far below normal. For what it's worth, the trend in the guidance has been toward the warmer solution. Temperatures look to increase for Sunday as the cold airmass shifts northeast. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1138 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025 VFR through the period with southerly winds at 10 knots or less tonight. By tomorrow morning, winds turn more southwesterly and will gust up to 25 knots by the afternoon and they will stay elevated through Tuesday evening. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Didio LONG TERM...Didio AVIATION...Soria ####018006053#### FXUS64 KLIX 090541 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 1141 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1125 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025 - Temperatures will begin moderating Tuesday night and Wednesday. Temperatures will be above normal Wednesday through at least Saturday. - Marine conditions improving on Tuesday. - Little or no rain expected through the weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Wednesday night) Issued at 1125 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025 A broad upper trough has reached the Atlantic Coast, with ridging over the Rockies and Pacific Coast. There is a southern stream shortwave that extended from Oklahoma to Arizona this evening. At the surface, the axis of a surface ridge extended from western New York to east Texas. A fairly thin layer of clouds around 925 mb, or about 3,000 feet, continued to sink southward across Mississippi into eastern and central Louisiana. These clouds are holding temperatures in the 40s this evening, with dew points in the upper 30s. Models have struggled with this shallow moist layer and the resulting cloud cover. It now appears that it could be mid to late morning Tuesday before the southern stream shortwave to our north and west suppresses the moisture around the 925 mb level far enough south to get rid of the clouds. In some respects, that would be a good thing, as it would lower the threat of freezing temperatures around sunrise. Unless we get quite a bit more clearing in the next few hours, overnight lows are at least one category too cold. Still could get some patchy frost in areas that see a break in the clouds for an hour or two. The axis of the surface ridge will shift off the Louisiana coast by Tuesday evening, with onshore winds returning. A strong upper trough will move through the Great Lakes and upper Ohio River Valley on Wednesday. This will force another frontal boundary through the area Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night. There's very little in the way of moisture with this front, with precipitable water values remaining near or below the 50th percentile climatologically. Highs Tuesday afternoon will likely top out near or just below 60, assuming the clouds depart as expected. Most of the area should see lows in the upper 30s to mid 40s Tuesday night, with highs 65 to 70 on Wednesday. Lows Wednesday night will be a couple degrees cooler than Wednesday morning...at worst. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Monday night) Issued at 1125 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025 With the longwave trough axis well to our east for the end of the week, the upper flow will be west-northwesterly, which should keep the area mostly dry. It will also serve to shunt the coldest air well to the east of the area, continuing the trend we noted last night through at least the first half of the weekend. Another strong trough will move through the Great Lakes and upper Ohio River Valley over the weekend. This will push another cold front through the area, probably Saturday night or on Sunday. Looking at moisture distribution based on forecast soundings, it looks like it is going to be difficult to get any significant precipitation in our area through early next week. If it is going to happen, it'll be with the weekend cold front. Maybe enough to redistribute dust on vehicles...quarter inch totals might be pushing things. Wednesday's frontal passage will probably knock the Thursday high temperatures back a few degrees from Wednesday highs, but that would just put them around normal. Friday and Saturday highs look to be much above normal, with most areas getting into the lower 70s...at least...on Friday. If we get a good bit of sunshine on Saturday, mid 70s look reasonable. NBM highs are 3-6F cooler than the ECMWF and GFS 12z/08 operational guidance highs for Friday and Saturday, and wouldn't be surprised to see the NBM numbers drift upward in the next 12 hours. Sunday's highs will be dependent on timing of the frontal passage. Monday looks cooler, with below normal temperatures, for now. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1125 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025 Terminals generally at MVFR and likely to continue at most or all terminals until perhaps late morning before scattering out. While there may be a few breaks in the clouds overnight, do not expect SCT to be a prevailing condition for more than an hour or two at best until perhaps 15z. Cloud bases should also lift above FL030 beyond that point. If skies were to clear and winds decouple around sunrise, there would be at least a limited threat of radiation fog development, but that is a low probability solution at this point. && .MARINE... Issued at 1125 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025 Will continue Small Craft Exercise Caution through 09z as winds and seas gradually subside. Conditions should be more favorable for marine operations, at least regarding winds and waves for Tuesday through Thursday. Once onshore flow develops at mid-week, that can be a signal for sea fog development during. At this time, the only window where dew points might support fog development would be perhaps Friday and Saturday. The next frontal passage will probably be over the weekend, and may need wind/wave headlines at that point. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 57 38 66 38 / 0 0 0 0 BTR 59 40 69 41 / 0 0 0 0 ASD 59 39 68 40 / 0 0 0 0 MSY 57 44 69 48 / 0 0 0 0 GPT 56 42 67 42 / 0 0 0 0 PQL 58 37 67 39 / 0 0 0 0 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...RW LONG TERM....RW AVIATION...RW MARINE...RW ####018007814#### FXUS65 KCYS 090541 AFDCYS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cheyenne WY 1041 PM MST Mon Dec 8 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - A long duration wind event is beginning today. While some breaks or lulls will occur, high winds will be a concern every day through Friday. - Damaging winds are expected near and in the lee of southeast Wyoming mountain ranges Monday evening through Tuesday evening. Gusts up to 90 mph are expected. - Cheyenne, Laramie, Rawlins, Wheatland, and Douglas can expect wind gusts up to 75 mph tonight into Tuesday. - Wind gusts up to 70 mph are expected to spread into High Plains during the day Tuesday. - A backdoor cold front may bring a brief reprieve from the wind along with a chance for snow showers Tuesday night into early Wednesday before winds pick up again Wednesday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 251 PM MST Mon Dec 8 2025 The short term forecast remains on track for a high end high wind event across nearly the entire forecast area. High Wind Warnings this afternoon are currently in effect for the usual southeast Wyoming wind prones of Arlington and the South Laramie Range. Frequent gusts over 60 MPH have been occurring throughout the day with gusts over 70 MPH popping up across the Arlington area. High winds will continue in these zone through at least Friday, as a stagnant upper-level pattern parks the right exit region of a 250 mb jet streak right over the CWA. Heading into the evening hours, the jet streak will begin to move into the CWA, increasing winds aloft. As the night progresses, more zones will come online into the High Wind Warning, with nearly all zones in a Warning by 5 AM Tuesday. The biggest change in this forecast package was the upgrade of High Wind Watches in far eastern Wyoming and the Nebraska panhandle to Warnings. Confidence has grown considerably in this being a large-scale impactful high wind event. Given the parameters displayed by the GFS, this is no typical high wind event, but definitely a higher end event. MSLP gradients will be considerably steep, with nearly a 20 mb gradient across the CWA! Both 850 and 700 mb CAG to CPR height gradients are nearly maxed out with some of the highest values seen in recent memory. As a result, winds aloft over the wind prones and wind prone adjacent areas exceed 75 kts. High plains locations will even see winds aloft of 60 to 70 kts! Downward omegas are also essentially "maxed out" over the wind prones and adjacent areas as well, meaning these strong winds will more than likely make it down to the surface. On top of this, a strong mountain wave signature is evident in cross sections of potential temperature and omega fields over and in lee of the Laramie Range. Breaking mountain waves will also ensure that these winds will make it down to the surface. The aforementioned parameters look to peak by mid-morning on Tuesday, however the strongest winds are likely expected between late morning and mid-afternoon after some mixing has taken place. As previously mentioned, this will be no ordinary high wind event. The wind prone areas of Arlington, Bordeaux and the South Laramie Range could see damaging wind gusts in excess of 90 MPH. Population centers in southeast Wyoming like Cheyenne, Laramie, Rawlins, and Wheatland could see wind gusts of 75 MPH. Remaining high plains locations including the Nebraska panhandle could see 70 MPH gusts. Winds will ease Tuesday evening across most of the CWA (excluding the usual wind prones), as a cold front pushes into the area. Winds will turn more northwesterly behind the front, essentially shutting off high winds briefly before another event is expected Wednesday. Aside from winds, the cold front could bring some light snow to the area, although accumulations are not likely outside of the mountains. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 251 PM MST Mon Dec 8 2025 The big story for the first few days of the long term, after a brief lull Wednesday morning, will be the continuation of high winds. Guidance is depicting, with appropriate parameters, winds ramping up Wednesday afternoon. In the mid-levels, 700mb winds in the 55 to 66 knot range coupled with negative Omega (GFS), will help bring those stronger winds to the surface. So, for the typical wind prone areas across southeast Wyoming, gusts could top out around 80 mph along the I-25 and I-80 corridors, possibly a few stronger gusts. These stronger winds should primarily stay out of the Nebraska panhandle; however, a couple gusts near 35 mph may make it in. These stronger winds, diminishing slightly, will persist into and through Wednesday afternoon/evening. By Thursday afternoon and for the remainder of the the long term period, we are not expecting another major wind event. However, some other changes may be in store for portions of the CWA. An arctic front will dive south across the High Plains out of Canada Thursday afternoon into Friday, clipping northeast portions of our CWA. If winds diminish quicker than anticipated, the arctic front may impact more of the CWA. So, as of now, Chadron and Alliance will feel the brunt of this front with cooler temperatures seeping in along with an increased threat of precipitation. In short, highs will generally climb into the 40s and 50s while lows dip into the 20s and 30s, and down into the teens for Chadron and Alliance. The bulk of the precipitation associated with the arctic front should remain to our northeast, with Chadron and Alliance seeing the best chances of snowfall. Meager accumulations expected in this area with generally an inch or less. Any fluctuation in the track, accumulations could spike to near three inches. Beyond Thursday, a 500mb ridge will slide in and as a result, weather conditions across the CWA should become and remain relatively benign for the remainder of the long term period. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1040 PM MST Mon Dec 8 2025 VFR conditions expected over the next 24 hours. Winds will be very strong, continuing to increase overnight through tomorrow with widespread gusts in the 50-60+ knot range alongside low level wind shear during the overnight into early morning hours as winds ramp up aloft and then mix down to the surface. Cloud banks at high to mid levels at SCT to BKN, but a band of precipitation moving into the region during the last few hours of the TAF period will bring lowered CIGs at BKN to OVC alongside a risk of locally rain & snow, most likely at KLAR. && .CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WY...High Wind Warning until 8 PM MST Tuesday for WYZ101-104-105- 109. High Wind Watch from Wednesday morning through Thursday morning for WYZ101-107-118. High Wind Warning from 2 AM to 8 PM MST Tuesday for WYZ102-108- 119. High Wind Warning until midnight MST Tuesday night for WYZ103- 107-114-118. High Wind Watch from late Tuesday night through late Wednesday night for WYZ104-109. High Wind Watch from Wednesday morning through Thursday morning for WYZ105-106-113-115-117. High Wind Warning until midnight MST Tuesday night for WYZ106- 113-115-117. High Wind Warning until 5 AM MST Friday for WYZ110-116. NE...High Wind Warning from 5 AM to 8 PM MST Tuesday for NEZ002-003- 019>021-054-055-095-096. && $$ SHORT TERM...SF LONG TERM...RZ AVIATION...CG ####018006133#### FXUS61 KGYX 090542 AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 1242 AM EST Tue Dec 9 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Cold conditions continue today under high pressure. A weak system brings a period of light snow tonight. Low pressure tracks across northern New England Wednesday, spreading accumulating snow across the interior while areas near the coast will see mostly rain. A cold front cross Thursday morning for drier and blustery conditions lasting into Friday. && .NEAR TERM /TODAY/... A frigid start to the day will give way to yet another below normal temp day. Highs once again are not expected to make it out of the 20s for the vast majority of the forecast area. Plenty of early day sun and lighter winds will make it more tolerable than yesterday however. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Increasing clouds are expected around sunset as a warm front lifts into the forecasts area. The departing cold air mass will allow some ocean effect precip to concentrate on the Midcoast with predominately southwest winds overnight. An inch or two of snow is possible from Casco Bay north by the time it all shifts Downeast. But a stronger storm and more widespread precip is expected for Wed. A seasonably strong low pressure will move out of the Great Lakes and track thru or just north of the forecast area. Current forecast soundings show a quite warm boundary layer for areas near the coast...with above freezing air around 2000 ft deep. I prefer to see it half as deep in order to get snow to reach the ground with marginal temps. Overall the forecast has much of southern NH as rain...as well as coastal western Maine. This is based off the NBM mean forecast...but the 50th percentile is even warmer. So there are likely some very warm members in the blend. Still the foothills into the mtns will see several inches of accumulation before precip moves out. This snow may affect the evening commute and lead to some hazardous travel...especially for those returning from the rainier southern parts of the states. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Low pressure will track through the St Lawrence Valley Wednesday night and will drag a cold front through the area Thursday morning. Steady precipitation ends Wednesday night with upslope snow showers lingering in the mountains through Thursday. The polar jet stream will be oriented from British Columbia towards the Mid Atlantic into the weekend directing additional disturbances near the Northeast. A multi model consensus keeps the bulk of moisture from these disturbances south of the forecast area. Temperatures will run below normal through the long term with highs struggling to get out of the 20s again early next week. Incoming 00Z guidance is in general agreement that a surface low will track from near Montreal across northern Maine from 00Z to 06Z Thursday. Steady precipitation associated with WAA with taper off during this time as dry air works into the system within the H5 to H7 layer. Temperatures will drop below freezing overnight changing any rain back to snow while any additional accumulations outside the mountains will be less than an inch. Winds will shift out of the west to northwest Thursday as a cold front crosses with gusts to around 25 mph by Thursday afternoon. Colder air lags behind the front and with the help of downsloping temperatures reach the upper 30s along the coast with highs ranging from the 20s to low 30s north south elsewhere. Short wave ridging builds in Friday for mostly fair weather with highs ranging from the teens north to near 30 degrees along the coast. Additional pieces of vorticity/short waves rotate through a deepening long wave trough over the Northeast through the weekend while models keep moisture south of the forecast area. The going forecast calls for isolated snow showers Saturday and Sunday with high pressure building in Monday. && .AVIATION /04Z TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Short Term...VFR conditions today will give way to areas of MVFR CIGs in ocean effect cloud cover across western Maine tonight. Local IFR or lower conditions are possible in any snow showers that move onshore. This threat will include both AUG and RKD. More widespread precipitation arrives Wed...with areas of IFR or lower conditions expected across most of the forecast area. Precip may start as snow for all terminals...but is expected to change to rain for coastal sites. The greatest uncertainty will be at CON and AUG where snow may hang on longer than modeled. Long Term...Precipitation tapers off Wednesday night while low cigs likely bring at least MVFR conditions. Cigs likely scatter Thursday morning south of the mountains. Upslope clouds and -SHSN will linger at KHIE through Thursday. Mainly VFR Friday into Saturday. && .MARINE... Short Term...A warm front will lift across the waters tonight and southwest winds will increase behind it. Outside the bays SCA conditions are likely for a brief period. As the cold air mass retreats there may be some ocean effect snow showers...especially on the waters north of Cape Elizabeth. These may briefly reduce visibility to less than one half mile at times. Another strong storm and stronger accompanying low level winds arrive Wed. There may be a better chance for some low end gale force gusts well outside the bays...but otherwise SCA conditions continue. Long Term...Winds shift offshore in the wake of a cold front Thursday and will gust in excess of 30 kts through Friday. Winds and seas drop below SCA thresholds Friday night into Saturday. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM Tuesday to 7 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ150-152-154. && $$ NEAR TERM...Legro SHORT TERM...Legro LONG TERM...Schroeter ####018006309#### FXUS63 KDVN 090542 AFDDVN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 1142 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025 ...Updated for 06z Aviation... .KEY MESSAGES... - Active storm track through the period will bring chances for precip to the area through the week. - Freezing rain possible during evening commute on Tuesday, especially across northwest Illinois and extreme eastern Iowa. - Snow showers are expected Wednesday along with additional chances for light snow most days this week. Some guidance has an advisory level snow event Friday morning across the region. - Temperatures will drop for the weekend with wind chills well below zero Friday and Saturday night. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 250 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025 Active weather continues through the short term period as two clippers move through the area. The first clipper moves through the area late tonight affecting the northeast CWA. The second clipper moves through tomorrow afternoon affecting the same area. West of this area, a strong front will push through the area. While the cold front will bring cooler temperatures, they will not be as a cool as this past weekend. The front will result in strong winds overnight Tuesday into Wednesday. Questions surrounding whether or not this wind will break the top of the snowpack and result in blowing snow, remains to be seen but can't be ruled out. Tonight, consensus in the guidance is to bring the wave across Wisconsin. Forcing for ascent is limited to our far NE, as such some pops have been maintained across the area. There remains a chance for precip in the form of snow overnight. Little to no QPF suggest no accumulation with this first wave. Tomorrow, guidance is struggling with the warm advection ahead of the next wave. The NBM, is way too high, to the point where it is affecting the blend of the guidance is a negative way towards higher temps. Most raw models have much cooler temps, and with snow cover, cloud cover and short solar insolation, I have to think that we will not see temps into the 40s. This is further supported by Tds barely making it to freezing through the day and into the evening. This means, no real melt and actually a decent setup for freezing rain across our NE for the evening commute. Model soundings have no ice nucleation, so any precip will fall as liquid. Later in the period as we cool, ice is introduced so snow will eventually start to move in. Surface temps will drive the freezing rain potential, and I think that the snowpack will win as far as temps go. So, areas east of a line from Manchester IA, to Clinton IA, to Sterling, IL will likely see freezing rain during the evening commute. Untreated surfaces could become slick. Overnight Tds warm above freezing changing the freezing rain to rain before the main forcing pulls out. Could need a winter weather advisory for this area tomorrow afternoon and evening. Tomorrow night, strong signal for wind advisory level gusts and winds. The CAA behind this system will result in strong winds. Will hold off on an advisory at this time as surrounding neighbors are concerned about a ground blizzard setup. We have about 30 hours to nail that risk down and I think that we will need that time to do that. CAMs have high wind warning gusts, especially across central Iowa. As we nail down the ground blizzard potential, believe this will lend some clarity to other potential advisories going forward. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 250 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025 After this, strong cyclonic flow into Wednesday looks likely. Long range CAMs depict robust snow showers in the late morning to afternoon. This does look like a good setup for impactful snow showers. Looking at a snow squall potential, instability looks to be the main lacking factor. However, I don't think we can rule out that potential as well. These showers will likely lead to snow on roadways as temps fall throughout the day. After this, another clipper is possible Thursday into Friday before the real arctic airmass arrives for the weekend. Differences in mass fields exist later in the week. The ECM, which seems to be the first to show systems, has an advisory level snow event for Friday morning. Other's do not, so much to iron out after our Tuesday/Wednesday event. What does seem certain is our cold air for the weekend. Expect another cold dump on Friday. Question at this time is whether or not we see any snow showers again with this front. Winter is here and we are active! && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1135 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025 Warm advection band of flurries and light snow is pushing east of the river terminals. In the wake I have added LLWS next several hours at MLI and BRL attendant to LLJ where VWP show 40+ kts near 2kft agl. Otherwise, anticipate lower MVFR to IFR conditions settling in at DBQ early this morning and stayed pessimistic in maintaining these lower conditions throughout the day at DBQ with strengthening low level inversion and potential for mist/fog. At CID and MLI, potential exists for a period of lower MVFR early this morning. Can't rule lower conditions persisting beyond with development of mist/fog possibly as warmer/moist air advects over snowpack, but confidence is low. At BRL where less snow cover is noted the potential is greatest for predominantly VFR for much of the period. Another band of light WAA precipitation attendant to a clipper system will translate across the terminals late Tuesday afternoon and evening. Soundings would support mainly light rain/freezing rain, but can't rule out some sleet as well with evaporative cooling with even a brief bout of snow at DBQ possible. This will be on the nose of an impressive 50-60 kt LLJ that will be accompanied by LLWS mention at all sites Tuesday evening. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...None. IL...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Gibbs LONG TERM...Gibbs AVIATION...McClure ####018005291#### FXUS66 KMFR 090543 AFDMFR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 943 PM PST Mon Dec 8 2025 .Updated AVIATION and MARINE Discussions... && .AVIATION...09/06Z TAFs...A front remains aimed at the Oregon Coast just north of North Bend. This is bringing gusty winds to the coast and a variety of ceiling conditions across the region. Along the coast and just offshore, IFR and LIFR ceilings are expected to prevail through the TAF period, with visibility also lowering Tuesday morning as the front slowly sags south. VFR conditions generally prevail across the region, but LIFR conditions are developing in the Rogue/Illinois/Applegate Valleys, and these lower conditions will prevail into Tuesday morning. In the Umpqua Basin, the proximity of the front could limit fog development there, but MVFR conditions are still expected tonight into Tuesday morning. Meanwhile, strong winds aloft will persist near the Cascades and over the east side in Oregon (north of Highway 140) tonight into Tuesday where higher terrain could experience gusts in excess of 50 mph. This could lead to some low-level wind shear over there (NE of Klamath Falls) since a low-level inversion probably doesn't allow these winds to mix all the way to the surface in some valleys. Even so, vertical mixing may improve Tuesday to allow surface wind gusts to 50 mph from around Summer Lake eastward. && .MARINE...Updated 815 PM PST Monday, December 8, 2025...Gusty south winds and steep wind waves combined with westerly swell will maintain conditions hazardous to small craft through at least Tuesday. Winds subside, but west swell persists into Wednesday, especially north of Cape Blanco. Conditions improve for the latter half of the week as swell dominated seas gradually lower. Expecting showers over the waters through mid-week as well which could further reduce visibilities (fog/low clouds expected as well) over the next couple days. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 335 PM PST Mon Dec 8 2025/ DISCUSSION...A strong upper ridge off the California coast this week will keep much of the moisture associated with a strong atmospheric river to our north. The frontal boundary associated with that moist plume will settle southward later tonight into Tuesday and this will bring increasing rain chances to NW sections of our forecast area and also the coast/coast ranges, but the impactful rainfall will largely stay to our north. In fact, many areas south of the Umpqua Divide and east of the Cascades won't see any rainfall from this system at all. As the front edges southward tonight through Tuesday evening, mid level winds will increase in NE portions of our area and this will bring occasionally gusty winds from the Cascades eastward in Oregon (primarily north of Highway 140). Limited vertical mixing could make it difficult for the winds to completely mix down to the surface, so the strongest winds will be over the higher terrain, but also possibly in some of the more typically channeled valleys (around Summer Lake). Please refer to our wind advisory for the details. After the front briefly jogs southward, the upper ridge will re- strengthen at midweek and amplify as it heads into California and the West Coast late this week into the weekend. As such, moisture will shift well to our north and precip chances will diminish Wednesday to almost nil everywhere Thu-Sat. Overall, we're expecting yet another dry, mild period for this time of year, which isn't exactly a good thing since we're heading into (climatologically) our wettest time of the year and snowpack is pretty much non-existent. This pattern will probably bring more valley/basin low clouds/fog during the nights/mornings. Areas that remain clear will have cold mornings, but also milder afternoons. It's not out of the question that some of the climate sites in NorCal (Montague, Mount Shasta, Alturas) and perhaps even Klamath Falls challenge a mid-December record high or two late this week. Beyond that, models show the upper ridge axis pushing east of the Cascades Saturday night with a Pacific frontal system approaching the coast and moving inland Sunday. Most ensemble members weaken this front as it moves onshore, so it remains to be seen just how much, if any precipitation it will bring. Will this be the system that opens the storm door for our area? While the CPC 8-14 day forecast gives hope for a wetter period next week (odds are shown to be 50-60% for above normal precip), model clusters and ensembles still show plenty of drier solutions within the membership and a tendency for upper ridging near or just off the California coast. If that ridge remains strong enough, this could keep the storm track to our north. -Spilde && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...Wind Advisory until 10 PM PST Tuesday for ORZ030-031. CA...None. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM PST Wednesday for PZZ356-376. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM PST Wednesday for PZZ350-370. && $$