####018006570#### FXUS63 KFGF 062320 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 620 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Strong southeast winds will continue this afternoon into tonight across eastern North Dakota and adjacent portions of Minnesota, with gusts up to 50 mph at times. - Showers and isolated thunderstorms will affect the region through Wednesday. && .UPDATE... Issued at 620 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024 No huge changes with this forecast update. Will slow down the arrival of likely precipitation chances for another few hours. Seems like there is more areal coverage of showers/storms organizing over eastern South Dakota now, but if they hold together as is, it will be a few more hours until they arrive in the southern FA. There is some lightning activity over southeast North Dakota, but nothing too concentrated or long lasting. As the previous shift noted, 850mb winds crank up to around 60 knots around or after sundown (and continue through most of the night), so the echoes on radar are moving very fast. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 212 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024 ...Synopsis... A strong upper level trough is moving out of the Rockies into the central and northern High Plains as seen on water vapor satellite imagery. This is helping rapid deepening of a surface low in the western Dakotas, generating an expansive increased wind field as well as drawing in moisture and lift into the region. By Tuesday afternoon, the upper trough closes into an upper low, becoming stacked on top of surface low halting its deepening/strengthening. This also allows the low to stall over the Dakotas by Tuesday. A second upper trough moving through the Intermountain West Wednesday will then help the upper low move southeast out of the Dakotas by Wednesday night. Northwest flow aloft then develops with the help of upper ridging over the West around Friday, with ensemble guidance all depicting an open, progressive shortwave trough moving out of central Canada into the Upper Midwest. While there is strong consensus in this synoptic wave, there are differing scenarios in its progression and strength. Uncertainty in the upper pattern then degrades after Friday's shortwave passage with either upper ridging out of the West becoming the dominate influencing mechanism for our weather, or upper troughing over the Great Lakes. Both would still favor average temperatures for our area, however. ...Strong winds today and tonight... Strong surface pressure gradient over our area and mixing of low level winds in the 40-50 kt range is contributing to sustained winds 25-35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph in eastern North Dakota into portions of adjacent northwest and west-central Minnesota. Southeasterly direction of winds is favoring strongest winds in the southern Valley with the help of downsloping within the southern Valley, as well as locally better mixing from daytime clearing. This will continue advisory-criteria winds through the afternoon into the evening. After sunset, daytime heating ceases, although the pressure gradient remains tightened over our area, along with some continued mixing with the help of either downsloping/terrain influences as well as transferred winds from aloft with the help of convection/weak thunderstorms tonight. Still thinking winds will remain near or at advisory-criteria after sunset until around midnight. Winds aloft increase over 50 kt tonight, which introduces some uncertainty in tapping into these near warning- type criteria. However, the chance in seeing warning-criteria winds is low, at around 10% between 7pm - 1am. ...Showers and thunderstorms through Wednesday... Lift and strong moisture transport into our area gives high confidence in widespread showers into eastern ND and west- central and northwest MN. Weak instability feeding into this moisture transport allows the chance for weak thunderstorms tonight into Tuesday. Tuesday midday, some high resolution guidance does bring a surface front through into our area, coupled with relatively warmer/more moist air mass. With forcing aloft and at the surface from convergence and frontal lift amid surface CAPE values 100-500 J/kg, clusters of semi-discrete and/or a line of thunderstorms are expected. In this same area, low level winds veer with height, with good ventilation aloft. Should thunderstorms remain semi-discrete and attach themselves on the boundary, funnels and/or a couple of quick tornadoes cannot be ruled out. This conditional chance is low, less than 10%, but still exists and would increase if more discrete mode and/or greater instability becomes more favored. The window of opportunity for such potential exists between 11am to 4pm. Otherwise, accumulated precipitation is forecast to range in the 0.20 - 0.75 inches, with locally higher amounts up to 1.5 inches in areas that see numerous rounds of showers and thunderstorms. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 620 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024 This will be a challenging set of TAFs, due to wind speeds and shower/isolated thunder chances. Also expect some LLWS around or after dark (up to 60 knots), continuing through most of the night. This amount of wind is not expected at the surface, but surface winds will stay gusty the entire night and into Tuesday. There could still be a few higher gusts at the surface associated with some of the shower activity. TAFs are pretty hard to write with showery convection, especially when it is fast moving and fairly high based initially. Trying not to include TEMPO groups every 4 hours as well. So will not be chasing TAFs too much tonight, as precipitation will be off and on. There may be some lightning around, but for the most part expect showers. Ceilings do tend to lower at most sites during the night (some closer to Tuesday morning), then lift again Tuesday afternoon as the first main band of precipitation either dissipates or moves into southern Canada. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...Wind Advisory until 1 AM CDT Tuesday for NDZ006>008-014>016- 024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054. MN...Wind Advisory until 1 AM CDT Tuesday for MNZ001>004-007-027- 029>031-040. && $$ UPDATE...Godon DISCUSSION...CJ AVIATION...Godon ####018007672#### FXUS63 KLSX 062320 AFDLSX Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 620 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Late tonight into early Tuesday morning, there is a threat of strong to severe thunderstorms with damaging winds and brief tornadoes the main hazards. - On Tuesday afternoon, there is a conditional threat of a few strong to severe thunderstorms in southeastern, far eastern MO and southwestern IL. - On Wednesday, the greatest chance of severe thunderstorms exists. Severe thunderstorms will be capable of all hazards including very large hail and a few strong tornadoes. && .SHORT TERM... (Through Late Tuesday Night) Issued at 255 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024 The CWA is currently beneath an upper-level shortwave ridge sandwiched between a departing trough over the Ohio Valley and a deepening, occluding closed low over the Northern Plains. Quiet conditions under the shelter of the shortwave ridge will come to an end tonight as a series of shortwave troughs eject northeastward from the base of the closed low within southwesterly flow, helping to establish the much-advertised active weather pattern that will linger across the region through Wednesday. The first shortwave is now entering the Central Plains, assisting the development of strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening ahead of a cold front as increasingly warm, moist, and unstable air is transported northward via low-level southerly flow in the warm sector. CAMs unanimously depict the thunderstorms in the Central Plains congealing an eastward-moving QLCS tracking quickly through MO tonight. This QLCS is expected to reach central and northeastern MO around 12 to 2 am TUE. By that time, instability will be relatively lower than earlier to the west, but the general consensus in short-term model guidance is that SBCAPE will still be over 1000 to locally near 2000 J/kg accompanied by 35 to 45 kt of deep-layer wind shear, supporting only a gradual weakening of the QLCS. In addition, 30 to 40 kt of 0 to 3 km wind shear and 0 to 1 km wind shear will be available. Therefore, a threat for damaging winds and brief tornadoes will accompany the QLCS, especially any northeastward surging bowing segments orthogonal to the 0 to 3 km wind shear vector. As the QLCS continues eastward through the remainder of the CWA very late tonight into Tuesday morning, instability will decrease slightly with both time and eastward extent due to increasing BL stability and decreasing moisture. Exactly how much this instability decreases is uncertain and will impact if the QLCS weakens more quickly and if the corresponding damaging wind and brief tornado threat decreases more quickly. The weakening QLCS will depart the CWA through 7 to 8 am TUE. The depth and southward extent of the QLCS's cold pool Tuesday morning will have implications on how much recovery of instability can occur by Tuesday afternoon ahead of an approaching Pacific cold front. However, even the 10th percentile of SBCAPE in the latest HREF reaches 1000 to 1500 J/kg in southeastern MO and southwestern IL, increasing confidence in instability recovering. Large-scale ascent will be rather nebulous during that time, but weak moisture convergence along a Pacific cold front passing through southeastern MO and southwestern IL, perhaps far eastern MO during early afternoon is the main potential catalyst for thunderstorm initiation. Although not all CAMs initiate thunderstorms before the front departs the CWA. IF thunderstorms develop, a few could be strong to severe with deep-layer wind shear projected to be 50 to 60 kt with a few supercells possibly merging into small bowing segments. The main hazards with any severe thunderstorms will be damaging winds, large hail, and possibly a tornado, with the threat ending by late afternoon as the front clears the CWA. Low-level CAA behind the Pacific cold front will be counteracted by strong insolation and downsloping of flow off the Ozark Mountains, leading to widespread high temperatures in the low to mid-80s F near and south of I-70 and in the upper 70s F northeastern MO and west- central IL. Pfahler && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Next Monday) Issued at 255 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024 Nearly all indications in model and analog guidance point to Wednesday being the summit of the active weather pattern. As another upper-level shortwave trough preceding an eastward ejection of the Northern Plains closed low occurs from the Central Plains to Mississippi River Valley, Tuesday's cold front will lift back northward into the CWA as a warm front on Wednesday ahead of a weak surface cyclone. Along and south of the front, a strongly unstable warm sector is anticipated to exist with model guidance advertising MLCAPE of 2000 to 4000 J/kg during the afternoon amidst 50 to 70 kt of deep-layer wind shear. There are still differences in how far north the warm front reaches by afternoon, which will serve as both the northward delineation and possibly an enhanced corridor of significant severe thunderstorms, being an area of enhanced low- level wind shear and SRH. Latest model guidance has this front anywhere from southeastern MO to south-central IL by the afternoon, significantly diminishing confidence in its effective afternoon position. These discrepancies aside, confidence continues to increase in the instability-wind shear parameter space being supportive of severe thunderstorms capable of all hazards, including very large hail (2" or greater in diameter) and a few strong tornadoes (EF2 or greater). The exact timing and evolution of thunderstorms is not entirely clear, but a preliminary window of severe thunderstorms is from midday through evening on Wednesday when a cold front finally pushes to the east of the CWA. Most attention in the forecast was obviously given to the next 3 days, but confidence is high in at least a quieter weather pattern after Wednesday as a period of time-mean upper-level northwesterly flow through the weekend. This flow pattern will provide cooler, near to below average temperatures as periods of low-level CAA follow multiple fronts passing through the region. Some opportunities for showers and thunderstorms will accompany these fronts as well; however, not all ensemble model guidance contain rain through the period and have timing differences related to frontal timing and associated upper-level trough timing and amplitude disparities. Pfahler && .AVIATION... (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Tuesday Evening) Issued at 607 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024 Generally dry and VFR conditions are expected until after 06Z when a line of thunderstorms will move into the area from the west affecting COU/JEF between 07-10Z, UIN between 08-11Z, and the St. Louis terminals between 09-12Z. These thunderstorms will likely produce MVFR, possible IFR ceilings and visibilites and strong wind gusts (possibly between 30-50 knots). The storms will move off to the east by 12Z, with just a low chance of redevelopment during the day on Tuesday. MVFR ceilings will linger through 18Z, but mainly dry and MVFR conditions are expected during the afternoon. Britt && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && $$ WFO LSX ####018006449#### FXUS63 KABR 062321 AFDABR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 621 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across central South Dakota early this evening, where a Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect until 8 pm CDT. Another round of showers and non severe thunderstorms will occur across eastern South Dakota and west central Minnesota this evening into the early overnight hours. - Strong winds will translate eastward this morning with gusts to around 50 mph across the entire area through Monday evening. - The weather pattern will remain unsettled through Friday with periods of showers and thunderstorms. Below average temperatures can be expected through at least Friday, with perhaps a warming trend this weekend. && .UPDATE... Issued at 620 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024 The Severe Thunderstorm Watch continues until 01Z Tuesday for much of central South Dakota. We will continue to monitor for the potential isolated strong to severe storms this evening. Strong winds remain, with gusts of 35 to around 50 mph, strongest over central SD. A Wind Advisory remains in effect until 05Z Tuesday. The main severe weather threat is over our central SD counties, but severe weather parameters continue to weaken this evening. Over eastern SD there will be scattered thunderstorms with gusty wind and the potential for small hail, but the main threat will be brief heavy rain. This is where Precipitable Water values are 1 to 1.3". && .SHORT TERM /THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 314 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024 A strong upper level shortwave trough currently just west of the CWA will swing northward tonight, then will spin in place over western North Dakota on Tuesday before weakening as it drops back over South Dakota Tuesday night. At the surface, an elongated low pressure system currently extends from eastern Montana to the Texas panhandle, with the strongest part of the low over northwestern South Dakota. In an area of somewhat clearer skies where instability has been able to increase over western South Dakota, thunderstorms have already developed. This clearing area looks to develop further east into portions of central South Dakota. Models indicate that there will be decent instability in that area (2000-3000 J/kg), as well as shear of about 40 to 45 knots for about a 2 to 3 hour period between 21Z and 00Z. As the surface boundary moves over that area during that time, it will likely become the focus for thunderstorm development, with gusty winds and large hail possible, along with a chance for a tornado or two. As the system swings northeastward this evening, the boundary will continue to be the focus for showers and thunderstorms, mainly along and east of the James River Valley. Instability and shear both weaken when this happens, so do not anticipate any severe weather. The low becomes more west to east oriented across North Dakota on Tuesday, with most of the precipitation coming to an end. Will keep some small POPs in just in case some lingering showers remain. The low broadens out and weakens Tuesday night, reducing precipitation chances even further. Strong southeast winds will continue late this afternoon and this evening, with gusts in excess of 40 mph likely. A Wind Advisory remains in effect for the entire area through midnight. May see a brief respite in the gustiness overnight, then wind speeds will pick up again on Tuesday, especially across central South Dakota. Will reevaluate the situation later tonight for possible additional headlines. Low temperatures tonight will range from the mid 40s along and west of the Missouri River, to the mid 50s across west central Minnesota. High temperatures on Tuesday will range from the lower 50s across north central South Dakota to the mid 60s across west central Minnesota. Lows Tuesday night will be in the upper 30s to the mid 40s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 314 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024 The long term portion of the forecast begins on Wednesday with a surface low pressure system and upper level trough crossing southeastward across the region. The storm system will bring 40 to 50% chance for showers and thunderstorms, mainly Wednesday afternoon through early Thursday morning. After a brief period of dry conditions Thursday afternoon and night, a shortwave crossing eastern SD and MN on Friday will bring a 20-30% chance of showers, mainly along and east of the James River valley. The latest NBM has trended drier west of the James, and slightly higher in northeast SD and western MN. Based on guidance from the grand ensemble, pops could be increased even more to 30-50% Friday afternoon. The weekend still appears mostly dry with seasonal temperatures. Upper level ridging west of the region will produce northwest flow aloft. High temperatures should warm into the mid 60s to the lower 70s Saturday and Sunday. While the NBM and grand ensemble are mostly dry, there are some hints of weak storm systems crossing the region this weekend and into early next week. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 620 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024 Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG Winds gusting 35 to 45kts will only slowly diminish to around 30-35kts on Tuesday. Look for improving conditions at PIR with VFR conditions returning after the main area of rain/thunderstorms exits north. Borderline VFR to MVFR ceilings will return 07-18Z Tuesday. Scattered to steady showers and embedded thunderstorms will move into both ABR and ATY. The result will be mainly MVFR ceilings at ATY through 09Z Tuesday. While VFR conditions are currently forecast after 05Z Tuesday at ABR, confidence is low, as the site will be near MVFR ceilings during much of the next 24 hours. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...Wind Advisory until midnight CDT /11 PM MDT/ tonight for SDZ003>011-015>023-033>037-045-048-051. MN...Wind Advisory until midnight CDT tonight for MNZ039-046. && $$ UPDATE...KF SHORT TERM...Parkin LONG TERM...SD AVIATION...KF ####018003884#### FXUS64 KLUB 062322 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 622 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 223 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024 The upper closed low will continue to spin over the Northern Plains tonight with 80 to 100 knot 250mb winds and 50 to 70 knot 500mb westerlies overhead. The Pacific front will be east of the forecast area by this evening with a weak surface cold front passing south through the area overnight. Shallow CAA with clear skies and radiational cooling will bring near normal low temperatures tomorrow morning in the mid 40s to lower 50s. Tomorrow, the nearly stationary upper low will continue to spin over the Northern Plains. Lee cyclogenesis will develop across southeast Colorado, but the dryline will remain well east of the forecast area with continued warm, dry and breezy conditions. Southwest winds will pick up through the afternoon hours with the strengthening surface low and increased pressure gradients across the area. Downsloping winds will give way to warming temperatures into the 80s and potentially lower 90s. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through next Sunday) Issued at 223 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024 Broad upper level troughing will continue over most of the northern CONUS through the midweek period with flow aloft remaining zonal over West Texas. In general this will result in a stretch of relatively quiet weather days during the middle to late week period given a stubbornly dry airmass remaining in place locally. After one more warm day on Wednesday, high temperatures will fall a few degrees below normal as a backdoor cool front passes through the region early Thursday morning. Surface flow is progged to retain an easterly upslope component through at least Friday which will allow relatively cool temperatures to continue, but given the continuing lack of notable surface or deep-layer moisture no precipitation is expected through Friday. The upper air pattern becomes a bit more interesting this weekend as most model solutions depict a cutoff low developing near the Four Corners and eventually drifting over our region. Typical model spread exists at this lead time regarding how quickly the upper low shifts eastward which makes any specific details regarding precipitation timing or coverage very uncertain. However, enough ensemble consensus is present to maintain low mentionable PoPs over most of the forecast area this weekend into early next week. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 620 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024 VFR conditions will prevail through this TAF period. Surface winds will slowly diminish around sunset before ramping back up again late tomorrow morning. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 223 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024 Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions tomorrow afternoon across the Caprock. With the dryline well to the east of the area, dry air will remain in place with minimum relative humidity values as low as 6 to 10 percent. Breezy southwest winds will ramp up through the afternoon hours to around 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 40 mph possible. Elevated fire weather conditions may develop once again on Wednesday afternoon, mainly over the far southwest Texas Panhandle. West winds of 15 to 25 mph and minimum RH values near or just below 10 percent are expected in this area. Elsewhere, winds are currently expected to be weak enough on Wednesday to mitigate any significant fire concerns. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ021>023- 027>029. && $$ SHORT TERM...11 LONG TERM....30 AVIATION...58 ####018009461#### FXUS64 KHGX 062323 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 623 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Tuesday Night) Issued at 246 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024 High humidity, gusty southeast winds, temperatures in the 80s, and widespread low/mid level cumulus rule the day on this Monday. Capping has prevented the aforementioned cumulus from growing into organized shower/thunderstorm activity. Capping will keep PoPs low, but not necessarily non-zero. Isolated shower and thunderstorm activity will be possible, especially across our northern counties. Some runs of the HRRR today are showing thunderstorms nearing our Brazos Valley counties this afternoon. That remains to be seen but also cannot be ruled out due to weak disturbances embedded in the flow aloft. Tonight promises to be another muggy night featuring a developing low cloud deck and patchy fog. At first glance, tomorrow looks very similar to today. However, one key difference will be the increasing ~850MB WAA. 850MB temps are expected to be 3 to 5 degrees celsius higher tomorrow afternoon. Diurnal mixing should allow this WAA to mix down to the sfc layer, resulting in hotter temperatures tomorrow afternoon. How hot? Many inland locations are likely to make a run for the 90 degree mark. Meanwhile, high levels of humidity will make it feel about 10 degrees hotter than the actual temperature. Some guidance, particularly the NBM, is quite aggressive with afternoon dew points, indicating widespread values in the 75F to 77F range. If that were the case, then heat index values could be another 3 to 5 degrees hotter than currently predicted. But since the NBM is featuring a higher dew point bias today (not uncommon), we opted to mix in some "drier" guidance to tame those afternoon dew points down to 73-74F (still nasty). Even though tomorrow's heat is technically below advisory criteria, these temperatures and dew points are quite high for early May. Therefore, practicing heat safety is warranted. Heat safety precautions include drinking plenty of water, wearing light clothing, taking frequent breaks in the shade or indoors if working or doing physical activity outside. If you think it's uncomfortable outside, so does your pet! Never leave children or pets in the car this time of year (LOOK before you LOCK). Self && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through next Sunday) Issued at 246 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024 You might be thinking "it's too early for it to be this hot!" as you see low 90s in the forecast through Thursday...so let's take a brief peek into the climatology (for the City of Houston). We have a high temperature of 90°F forecast for Houston on May 7th...the last time our first 90+°F day was this late was in 2018. Four out of the last five years we've hit 90+°F for the first time of the year in March/April. Our average first day of 90+°F temperatures is May 6th, so we're right around average...nut 90s are 90s so that's hot no matter what month it is. With southwesterly flow aloft persisting, 850mb temperatures will reach the 20-25°C range Wednesday and Thursday. This is around their 99th to MAX percentiles (NAEFS/GEFS), so high temperatures in the low 90s are definitely supported. The heat itself isn't the only story...given the saturated soils from the recent rainfall, humidity values will be a bit higher leading to elevated heat index values (100-105°F). Additional moisture moves in on Thursday ahead of an approaching frontal boundary (we'll get to that soon), so this is the day we're watching the closest for now for a potential early season Heat Advisory since our bodies aren't acclimated to the heat just yet) in addition to lingering effects from the previous rainfall in some areas (power outages & outdoor clean-up efforts). Now about that cold front! An upper level low will traverse from the Northern Plains to the Great Lakes region midweek. The surface low will follow a similar east-southeastward track through the Central CONUS and drag a cold front towards Southeast TX. The cold front will be sitting on our doorsteps as early as Tuesday morning, but the parent low sits nearly stationary over the Northern Plains so there won't be much movement until the new surface low forms further south midweek. We will be in the warm sector, so there'll be plenty of shear and instability to work with. Recall our elevated 850mb temperatures though which is the source of our subsidence inversion layer aloft (cap), so any storms that attempt to develop along and ahead of the front will have to battle that. That cap is stronger the further south you go on both Wednesday and Thursday. While there is a slight risk of severe weather (level 2 out of 5) for portions of Southeast Texas Wednesday/Thursday, it all depends on if any convection can break the cap to tap into the elevated instability and shear. Rain chances Thursday are mainly along and north of I-10 as the front pushes through the area and we'll likely be too capped further south for any storms to make it. Temperatures do cool down a bit post-FROPA with highs on Friday and over the weekend back into the 80s and overnight temperatures mainly in the 60s. The surface high pressure that builds in on Friday behind the front pushes eastward over the weekend allowing for moisture to return. Rain chances remain over the weekend with various shortwaves passing through, but most notably on Sunday as it appears a coastal trough will drift through the area. Batiste && .AVIATION... (00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 623 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024 Decreasing S to SE winds and the development of widespread MVFR ceilings will return to the early this evening and persist through early tomorrow morning. Areas of IFR ceilings along with patchy fog are possible too. Winds will start out SW tomorrow then become S to SE tomorrow afternoon. Expecting to see low end VFR ceilings tomorrow afternoon. Will start to indicate lowering decks once again heading into the tomorrow evening thru Wednesday morning time period. 42 && .MARINE... Issued at 246 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024 Light to occasionally moderate onshore flow will continue through midweek until a cold front pushes offshore late Thursday night. This persistent onshore flow will keep seas in the 3 to 5 ft range and may occasionally reach 6 ft in the farshore waters. Another consequence of the moderate onshore flow is elevated rip current risks. Dangerous rip currents can be expected along all Gulf facing beaches through midweek. We're also monitoring for the potential of coastal flooding along Gulf-facing beaches around midweek during times of high tide. A cold front pushes offshore on late Thursday night bringing a period of northeasterly winds that prevail into the weekend. Showers/storms are expected to make a return over the weekend, especially Sunday, as the next system arrives. Mariners should note that high flows from area rivers, creeks, and streams will lead to above normal water levels and strong currents in the bays and ICWW well into midweek and can make navigation difficult. Batiste && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 246 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024 Although there are periodic chances for scattered showers/storms this week, this is not expected to result in any additional flooding. Rivers will remain swollen for days (possibly weeks). Do NOT go around barricades and stay out of the floodwaters. Do NOT return to homes until officials deem that it is safe. Minor to major river flooding continues for parts of Southeast Texas, particularly along portions of the Trinity, San Jacinto, and Navasota rivers. The following river points are either at or forecast to go into Major flood stage as of Monday afternoon: - Trinity River (Liberty): Major Flood Stage - Trinity River (Goodrich): Major Flood Stage - Trinity River (Moss Bluff): Major Flood Stage - West Fork San Jacinto (Humble): Major Flood Stage - Navasota River (Normangee): Moderate to Major Flood Stage Remember to heed any instructions from your local officials and to never travel through flooded areas or roadways. TURN AROUND, DON'T DROWN. Please monitor updated forecasts via the NWS AHPS website and/or the new NWS NWPS webpage (https://water.noaa.gov/) as the river flood threat continues.  Also of note is that the downstream runoff from the previous rainfall will cause continued rises along the Brazos River through the end of the week. The Brazos River at Sugar Land, Rosharon, and West Columbia are forecast to rise into minor flood stage at the end of the work week and through the weekend. Batiste && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 74 90 73 91 / 0 0 0 10 Houston (IAH) 75 90 75 91 / 0 0 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 76 82 76 84 / 0 0 0 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...High Rip Current Risk until midnight CDT tonight for TXZ436>439. GM...None. && $$ ####018006419#### FXUS66 KPDT 062323 AFDPDT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pendleton OR 423 PM PDT Mon May 6 2024 Updated Aviation Discussion .AVIATION...00z TAFs...Showers are currently bearing down upon PDT and ALW, but are expected to end shortly, leaving mostly dry conditions across all sites for the rest of the period. The scattered nature of shower development this afternoon and evening lowers confidence a bit on just how dry PDT and ALW will stay, but the overall trend as we reach nightfall is that of generally clearing conditions. Winds will remain breezy, however, dropping off a bit overnight before gusting once again during the day Tuesday. Expect mostly W/SW winds gusting up to 30 kts at times, especially for PDT and PSC early this evening and once again tomorrow afternoon. Outside of shower activity, skies are expected to be sct at around 10 kft. Evans/74 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 216 PM PDT Mon May 6 2024/ SHORT TERM... Tonight through Wednesday night... The short term period will start off with several items of interest then end on the quiet side. First, another upper low will affect the Pacific Northwest through Tuesday morning, with the majority of the impacts later this afternoon into tonight, and mainly over the mountains. This upper low will move down from British Columbia and across Washington, before moving east into Idaho on Tuesday. Snow levels which are initially 4000-5000 feet, except for below 4000 feet in portions of the Washington Cascades will decrease to below 3000 feet by Tuesday morning. Snow levels will rise again to above 4000 feet by Tuesday afternoon, except for portions of the Washington Cascades. Winter Weather Advisories remain in effect for the Oregon Cascades and Northern Blue Mountains and these still look good. QPF values have come up a bit with the morning model runs, but the advisory still looks good and again with the time of year any precipitation that falls during the day will have a much harder time accumulating. There are thunderstorm chances (20-40%) across much of the region today, with the best chances across the Blue Mountains, Wallowas and John Day Highlands. CAPE values are forecast to be in the 300-400 J/kg range with LI values -3 to -4 degrees C. Guidance also suggests activity will decrease after 07/00Z. Current satellite imagery shows abundant cloud cover across much of the area, with more breaks in Washington and portions of the Columbia Basin. Will the clouds prevent thunderstorm development? Next topic is breezy wind gusts which should mainly be in the 25 to 35 mph range with gusts as high as 40 mph through tonight and into Tuesday before decreasing Tuesday evening. The Columbia Basin, Foothills of the Blue Mountains, Columbia Gorge, Simcoe Highlands, Kittitas Valley and Yakima Valley are the most likely areas to see the strongest winds. The NBM probabilities of winds >=39 mph across much of the aforementioned areas are 80% to 100%. The NBM probabilities of winds >=47 mph drops to between between 30% and 60% on average. The ECMWF EFI is keying in on wind gusts across the Basin, but more so across the Blue Mountains and Wallowa COunty, with values of 0.8 to 0.9. Also, another area across the Yakima and Kittitas Valley. By later Tuesday, any precipitation will be confined to the eastern oregon mountains and by Wednesday morning, dry north to northwesterly flow will build in followed by a ridge. This will bring increasingly warm and dry weather for the rest of the period. Finally, high temperatures will warm each day, from the 50s and 60s on Tuesday to the 60s and 70s on Wednesday. The ECMWF EFI is focusing on high temperatures on Tuesday, with much of Oregon below normal, in the -0.6 to -0.7 range and a large swath of eastern Oregon in the -0.7 to -0.8 range with some areas of the southern Blue mountains in -0.8 to -0.9. LONG TERM... Thursday through Monday...Models in good agreement through the period. However, they do diverge slightly on how fast the upper level ridge weakens and moves east. EOFs show very little model differences through Saturday, but diverge on how quickly the ridge weakens and moves east thereafter. Looking at WPC cluster analysis, there is a good chance (50-70%) the ridge will hold on (but weakens) through the period and a low chance (15-20%) of a weak trough clipping Washington by Monday. The ensemble members paint a similar picture with the ECMWF weakening the ridge quicker allowing a weak trough to move through the area late in the period while the GFS is slower and develops general zonal upper level flow Sunday and Monday. The deterministic models on pretty good alignment through the period, but differ mainly in timing of a weak shortwave moving through Washington Monday. NBM is a bit drier for Monday which is likely a good bet given the cluster analysis, but it may start trending a little "wetter" Monday over Washington if the disturbance pans out. Daytime highs will be above normal through the period, but expected to peak Saturday 15-20 degrees above normal. There will be some hydrological concerns over the weekend as the strong upper level ridge develops off the coast. This will provide ideal conditions for melting some of our winter snowpack. All rivers will see rises, but portions of the Naches River may approach (or exceed) bankfull by Saturday or Sunday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... PDT 36 56 34 62 / 20 10 0 0 ALW 40 59 39 64 / 40 10 0 0 PSC 43 65 41 71 / 20 0 0 0 YKM 35 63 34 72 / 10 0 0 0 HRI 40 63 38 68 / 10 10 0 0 ELN 36 57 37 69 / 10 0 0 0 RDM 29 50 26 59 / 30 0 0 0 LGD 34 50 32 57 / 60 40 0 0 GCD 31 47 31 57 / 70 40 10 0 DLS 42 60 40 70 / 20 0 0 0 && .PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...Winter Weather Advisory until 5 AM PDT Tuesday for ORZ502. Winter Weather Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening for ORZ509. WA...Winter Weather Advisory until 5 AM PDT Tuesday for WAZ030. && $$ SHORT TERM...77 LONG TERM....81 AVIATION...74 ####018005108#### FXUS65 KPSR 062323 AFDPSR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 420 PM MST Mon May 6 2024 .UPDATE... Updated Aviation && .SYNOPSIS... Dry weather will continue through the next week with an increase in gusty winds expected in some areas Tuesday and Wednesday. Temperatures will remain near to slightly below normal through midweek before rising above normal by the end of the week. By the weekend and into the beginning of next week, afternoon highs are expected to climb to around 100 degrees across parts of the lower deserts. && .DISCUSSION... The upper low responsible for bringing strong winds to the Southwest over the weekend is now seen ejecting northeast into the Northern Plains this afternoon. Much lighter winds have prevailed locally, though temperatures will remain below seasonal normals for today. Afternoon highs will top out in the mid 80s across the lower deserts before returning to near normal readings tomorrow. Mostly clear skies will continue as dry northwesterly flow aloft persists. Going forward, ensemble and deterministic guidance favor a troughing pattern persisting over the Desert Southwest through much of the week. Guidance suggest that shortwave energy pushing into the Pacific Northwest will dig southward into the Great Basin Tuesday. As this occurs, a piece of energy from the upper low currently moving into the Northern Plains will split off and retrograde toward the Desert Southwest before phasing with the aforementioned shortwave energy during the middle part of the week. The other piece of energy associated with the upper low will continue eastward. The local response to this will be a tightening gradient heading into the middle part of the week. Increasing gusts will begin Tuesday afternoon as the strongest gusts favor higher terrain areas across Arizona with some gusts up to 25-30 mph possible across southern Gila County. Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, strong low-level northerly winds will increase down the Lower Colorado River Valley, though the timing of this isn't ideal for better momentum transfer to the surface. Nonetheless, gusty winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible (>40%) with the strongest winds favoring ridgetop locations along/near the Lower Colorado River Valley. Additionally, the strong northerly wind component will promote CAA into southeast California and southwest Arizona where highs are forecast to cool into the mid/upper 80s to around 90 degrees Wednesday. As we head into the end of the week, the upper level circulation over the Southwest will gradually weaken with heights gradually rising over the region. Temperatures will respond accordingly, rising into the mid to upper 90s by the weekend and potentially to around 100 degrees in some lower desert locales by Sunday/Monday. Otherwise, dry conditions will persist through the next week. && .AVIATION...Updated at 2320Z. South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT: No major weather concerns will exist through Tuesday afternoon under clear skies. While a few modest gusts ~15kt will be common this evening, confidence is good wind speeds will decrease then switch to the traditional easterly after midnight. A westerly component should resume slightly earlier than usual Tuesday afternoon with more frequent late afternoon gustiness around 20-25 kt. Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: No weather issues will exist through Tuesday afternoon under clear skies. Extended periods of light and variable winds will be common, however in general, W/SW directions will be preferred during the evening and overnight, with S/SE more common during the afternoon. && .FIRE WEATHER... Dry conditions and overall light winds outside of afternoon breeziness will continue through the rest of today. The weather pattern into the middle of the week will lead to another round of breezy conditions starting Tuesday with afternoon gusts commonly reaching to around 20 mph to as high as 25-30 mph in some locations. Strong gusts in excess of 30 mph are possible (>40%) overnight Tuesday night into Wednesday morning for areas along the Lower Colorado River Valley with the strongest winds favoring ridgetops. Temperatures will warm back to around seasonal normals going into the middle part of the week with highs as warm as the lower 90s across the lower deserts. MinRHs will be in the 5-10% range through at least mid week across the lower deserts to around 10-15% over higher terrain areas, with overnight recoveries between 20-40%. Winds during the latter half of the week will return to more typical seasonal trends with daily afternoon gusts up to around 20 mph. && .PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AZ...None. CA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Smith AVIATION...18 FIRE WEATHER...Smith/Kuhlman