####018003314#### FXUS64 KOHX 250525 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 1225 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 847 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024 Another lovely night out there. Temperatures are sitting right around 60 degrees for most everyone in Middle Tennessee. Another clear and cool night is in store with lows in the upper 40s. Clouds will progressively build in through the afternoon tomorrow as well as a return of rain chances. Highs tomorrow will be in the mid to low 70s. Otherwise, nothing of consequence to talk about in this update. Enjoy the clear conditions tonight! && .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Thursday) Issued at 1016 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024 The front that brought some showers to the area last night and this morning has cleared the CWA with light northerly winds behind it. The rest of the day will be dry with mostly clear to partly cloudy skies with highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s. Tonight will be the coolest night over the next week with clear skies, calm winds, and lows in the 40s. Thursday will be another nice day with temperatures climbing into the 70s. Clouds will increase during the afternoon ahead of a shortwave and associated warm front which will move through after dark. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday Night through next Wednesday) Issued at 1016 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024 The warm front will bring some rain chances Thursday night into Friday morning as it lifts through the area. QPF will be light with amounts expected to range from 0 to a few hundredths. Southerly low level flow will return behind the warm front and temperatures will climb into the mid 70s to lower 80s on Friday. Conditions Friday and Saturday will be breezy as a 990 mb surface low lifts through the central plains. The weekend looks dry as upper level ridging holds and keeps the rain chances west of Middle Tennessee. The upper ridging starts sliding east on Sunday with an upper wave approaching the area on Monday which will be our next chance of rain. The temperatures in the extended forecast continue to look warm with highs in the 70s and 80s. Lows will be in the 50s and 60s. CPC 8-14 day outlook continues to favor above average temperatures, so if you plan on planting a garden, it looks safe to go ahead. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1224 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024 VFR condition through the TAF period. Mid to high level clouds start to build in late afternoon into the evening. Northerly winds under 7 knots. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 74 55 82 66 / 0 40 30 10 Clarksville 71 53 80 66 / 10 40 30 10 Crossville 72 51 72 60 / 0 20 30 0 Columbia 75 54 82 66 / 10 40 20 0 Cookeville 71 53 75 63 / 0 20 30 0 Jamestown 71 49 73 61 / 0 10 30 0 Lawrenceburg 74 55 81 66 / 10 40 20 0 Murfreesboro 75 54 82 66 / 0 40 20 0 Waverly 72 54 82 66 / 10 40 20 10 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE.......Baggett SHORT TERM...Reagan LONG TERM....Reagan AVIATION.....Mueller ####018006200#### FXUS63 KLOT 250526 AFDLOT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 1226 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Widespread frost and sub-freezing temperatures, outside of Chicago, tonight - Periods of showers and thunderstorms expected starting Friday and continuing at times through the weekend, with some threat for severe weather, particularly later in the weekend. Locally heavy rainfall possible as well. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 250 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024 Through Friday: High pressure will continue to drift into the Great Lakes tonight which will aid in eroding the lingering lake effect cloud cover in northwest IN and diminishing the breezy northeast winds. Therefore, conditions look favorable for a decent night of radiational cooling, which should allow temperatures to dip into the upper 20s and lower 30s outside of Chicago with readings in the mid-30s in the city. Dew points are also expected to remain in the upper 20s to lower 30s tonight which will keep maximum RH values near saturation and promote widespread frost development, especially outside of downtown Chicago. While confidence in these frost/freeze conditions remains high, there is some mid-level cirrus across the central Plains that is progged to drift overhead tonight. Given that the cirrus should thin as it moves into the drier airmass overhead I suspect it will do little to reduce the aforementioned radiational cooling and resultant frost development. Thus, the Freeze Watch for areas north of I-88 has been upgraded to a Freeze Warning and expanded to include DuPage county. A Frost Advisory was also issued to encompass the rest of our forecast area with the exception of central Cook County. After a chilly start to our Thursday temperatures are expected to rebound into the lower 60s as winds become southeasterly and warm advection begins. However, a lake breeze is forecast to develop and surge inland Thursday afternoon resulting in notably cooler temperatures for areas along the lakeshore. Otherwise, skies will remain mostly to partly sunny before cloud cover starts to increase Thursday night ahead of our next weather system on Friday. Yack Friday Night through Wednesday: Large scale pattern change is expected as a pair of vigorous shortwave troughs will help carve out a deep western trough. Amplification of a downstream ridge over the eastern U.S. will allow for much warmer weather, though the expected proximity of the jet stream should result in stormy periods starting Friday and continuing through the upcoming weekend. First shortwave trough is progged to eject out onto the central High Plains Friday, with strong model consensus in closing off a mid-upper level low as trough acquires negative tilt with time. First slug of warm air advection driven showers and eventually some thunderstorms should overspread the area Friday afternoon and continue into Friday evening. Strong moisture transport associated with a broad 50-60kt low level jet should drive PWATS to 200-250% of normal by Friday evening. This certainly suggests that some locally heavy rainfall totals are possible, with probs of precip totals >1" in around half of the GEFS and EPS members. By 12z Saturday, this lead trough is expected to lift north to the Upper Mississippi Valley, which should drive the sfc low and associated warm front well north of the area. Though NBM maintains some precip chances on Saturday, it is increasingly looking like Saturday could be a good candidate for a potentially dry day this weekend. With warm front well to our north and height rises in the wake of the departing trough, potential will be there for temps to get quite warm if stratus doesn't linger into the afternoon. With some sunshine, high could make a run at the lower 80s and with dewpoints at least in the upper 50s, that would feel "muggy" compared to today! Another round or two of showers and thunderstorms are possible in the Saturday night through Sunday night time frame as the next strong shortwave trough ejects out from the western long wave trough. Hard to pinpoint timing at this distance as a lot will depend on upstream convective coverage and eventually evolution. Synoptically, general set-up looks generally favorable for a severe threat in the region Sunday afternoon/evening, but where that threat set-ups will likely hinge on how things evolve Saturday and Saturday night. Cold front is expected to move across the region Sunday night, likely bring an end to the shower/thunderstorm threat. Pacific air mass behind this front means temps will remain mild early next week, with highs possibly still in the upper 60s/low 70s behind the front early next week. A warming trend is expected heading into the middle of next week back to well above average temps. - Izzi && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1226 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024 Only forecast concern this period is a lake breeze this afternoon. Light and variable winds overnight will become southeast after daybreak and may briefly become southerly before turning back to the southeast. A lake breeze will move inland this afternoon shifting winds easterly at ORD/MDW/GYY with speeds to 10kts. Winds will turn back to southeasterly this evening with speeds under 10kts, though speeds are expected to increase to 10-12kt by daybreak Friday with some gusts possible. cms && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...Freeze Warning until 8 AM CDT this morning for ILZ003-ILZ004- ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ008-ILZ010-ILZ011-ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ103. Frost Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for ILZ019-ILZ020- ILZ021-ILZ023-ILZ032-ILZ033-ILZ039-ILZ105-ILZ106-ILZ107- ILZ108. IN...Frost Advisory until 8 AM CDT /9 AM EDT/ this morning for INZ001-INZ002-INZ010-INZ011-INZ019. LM...None. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/chicago ####018004769#### FXUS63 KDLH 250527 AFDDLH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 1227 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry conditions continue Thursday with elevated fire weather conditions in portions of the Northland. - Cooler temperatures in the fifties are expected Thursday in Cook County and coastal Lake County compared to mid to upper-60s in the rest of the Northland. - Two low pressure systems back-to-back will bring rain showers and embedded thunderstorms through the weekend and into next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 128 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024 Today and Thursday: Lingering dry air over the Northland today throughout portions of our CWA will continue Thursday. Soundings show the classic inverted V sounding and very dry air aloft in northwestern Wisconsin. As a result, more elevated fire weather conditions are possible with high temperatures in the 60s, low RHs, and increasing winds throughout the day as the pressure gradient tightens from the approaching low pressure system. Low 1 - Friday morning to Saturday night: A strong vertically stacked low will move into the Upper Midwest Friday morning. Winds will increase further ahead of the low pressure center into Friday night. Southeast winds will be 15-20 mph across the area with gusts to around 40 mph. Wind advisories are not out of the question where the highest winds are expected, but confidence remains low to initiate any action at this point. Winds will briefly lower as the low passes before increasing once again on the back side. Models are fairly in agreement with the placement of the low moving over southern Minnesota and moving northeast over the Northland before exiting northeast into Canada. The speed is still in question and where the models still start to diverge, but will likely exit Saturday night. Thunderstorms are possible within these showers, especially on Saturday when higher instability and moisture will be present in northwestern Wisconsin. No severe weather is expected, as better conditions for strong to severe thunderstorms remains to our south and east. Low 2 - Sunday afternoon through Monday: A brief break in precipitation late Saturday night and Sunday morning will be followed by a second low ahead of a deep upper level trough. Little instability suggests that thunder, if any, will be few and far between with this second system. The track of this is more uncertain, but should still take a similar path to the first with our area remaining north of the system. Global models also differ on the speed of the system, which could affect rainfall totals. Rainfall totals: Depending on the track of the two lows, precipitation totals have spread more evenly across our southern areas this forecast package. All of our area should see at least a half inch of precipitation, with areas along the North Shore, south of the Iron Range and east of the Brainerd Lakes possibly seeing 1.5 inches or more (40-60%) by next week. Next week: After these lows pass, global models hint at additional weak shortwaves over the region, bringing more light precipitation. Models really start to diverge at this point, though, so there is no concrete timing or placement able to be obtained this far out. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1226 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024 VFR conditions throughout the forecast. Satellite and observations this morning show some high clouds traversing in from the west. Skies will begin to clear as we head into the latter morning hours. Southerly winds will increase later today with gusts in excess of 20 kts. Tomorrow night we could see some low level wind shear impacting the terminals as a low pressure system advances towards the region. && .MARINE... Issued at 128 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024 Light winds tonight and Thursday morning will increase out of the east Thursday afternoon as the first of two low pressure systems approach the Northland bringing moderate rainfall. The majority of the near shore waters will likely see wind gusts and/or waves hazardous to small craft Friday afternoon. Winds will fluctuate throughout the weekend as the two systems pass, but hazardous conditions will remain possible on and off until Monday. For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt. && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...KML AVIATION...Britt MARINE...KML ####018005842#### FXUS61 KRLX 250528 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 128 AM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Surface high pressure provides dry weather conditions and a warming trend through the end of the week. Chance for showers arrive late Friday into Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... As of 1030 PM Wednesday... Freshened up temperatures and sky conditions for this evening. Satellite trends show mainly clear skies outside of a stratus deck draping down from the north, that will attach itself to the northern half of the CWA as the night wears on. Also beginning to see llvl stratus developing along the mountains as anticipated. Cloud coverage may play a role in keeping temperatures slightly warmer than anticipated tonight, but with the possibility of frost in the event of overnight clearing, will maintain the frost advisory the way it is with this update. As of 545 PM Wednesday... Opted to expand the Frost Advisory to incorporate all of our southeast Ohio counties and into Wood County, WV for tonight into tomorrow morning. As of 245 PM Wednesday... Key Points: * Frost likely tonight in portions of Southeast Ohio. Widespread mid-level cumulus across the region this afternoon should decrease in coverage this evening and overnight as we lose diurnal heating. Calming winds should combine with the clear skies to allow for frost development in our most northwestern counties, and a Frost Advisory has been posted for several of these counties, in decent alignment with neighbors. A few pockets of Perry County may drop below freezing, and some surrounding counties could have isolated pockets of frost, as well. Otherwise, there may be some fog formation overnight, mainly in the mountains and high valleys, in addition to some potential low stratus. In general, the below normal temperatures will continue through the near-term, with lows mostly in the 30s. Highs on Thursday will be in the 60s for most, about 10 degrees below normal, with 50s in the mountains. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 1129 AM Wednesday... A warm front will lift north of the region Friday with winds shifting out of the south in the afternoon. This will mark the return of warmth across the region with temperatures making it back into the middle 70s across the lowlands by the afternoon. Most should remain dry, but a spotty shower cannot be ruled out, mainly across northeast Kentucky and southeast Ohio, closer to the warm front. An upper-level ridge will also build over the middle Ohio Valley, reinforcing the warmer pattern. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 1131 AM Wednesday... A large upper-level ridge will reside over the eastern 1/3 of the country this weekend and into early next week with surface high pressure over the Atlantic, which will pump warm and humid air northward into our region. This weekend will certainly feel summerlike with highs climbing into the mid-80s by Sunday across the lowlands. Near-record temperatures will be possible Monday at Parkersburg and Elkins, where the records currently sit at 86 (1991) and 87 (1996), respectively. Widespread shower and thunderstorm chances will return late Monday and into Tuesday as a cold front approaches from the west. At this time, there are no alarming signs of severe weather for the long-term period. Things could change, so stay tuned. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 126 AM Thursday... Satellite imagery and METARs show areas of low stratus affecting PKB, CKB and and EKN with MVFR ceilings. Expect these clouds to dig south, diminishing in coverage across the west, and persisting along the eastern mountains, perhaps reaching BKW during the predawn hours. Rest of sites should experience VFR conditions under light northerly flow. Afternoon mixing could lead to some wind gusts up to 18 knots, before subsiding around sunset. Guidance suggests skies will gradually clear this afternoon continuing with widespread VFR conditions. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY... ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and coverage of low stratus may vary from forecast. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE THU 04/25/24 UTC 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 EDT 1HRLY 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H M L L H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H M L L L L H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H L M L M H M H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M L L L H AFTER 06Z FRIDAY... Patchy IFR possible along the mountains Friday night. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for WVZ009. OH...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for OHZ066-067-075- 076-083>087. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FK/JMC NEAR TERM...FK/MEK SHORT TERM...JMC LONG TERM...JMC AVIATION...ARJ