####018004444#### FXUS64 KOUN 090545 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 1145 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1139 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025 - Above average temperatures through Friday. - Cooler this weekend. - No chance for precipitation through at least the weekend. && .NEAR TERM... (Rest of tonight through Tuesday) Issued at 1139 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025 There is a low chance for some patchy fog to once again develop across parts of OK towards sunrise Tuesday. Confidence is low enough that do not have mention in the forecast but will need to monitor obs into early Tuesday. After a cool start (lows mid 20s to mid 30s) to the day, Tuesday is expected to be a fairly decent day with mostly sunny skies and warmer temperatures. Models show southwesterly winds across the area Tuesday. These winds along with mostly sunny skies and downslope flow will lead to unseasonably warm temperatures with highs in the 60s across most of the area although some locations in western north TX could actually climb into the low 70s. The forecast highs are 10- 15 degrees F above average for this time of year. && .SHORT TERM... (Tuesday night through Wednesday night) Issued at 1139 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025 Models show NW flow aloft into late this week with a shortwave moving across the northern Plains into the Ohio Valley later Tuesday into Wednesday. This system will push a cool front across the fa Tuesday night into Wednesday. Breezy/gusty northerly winds are expected behind the front Tuesday night into at least Wednesday morning. Cooler air will also move into the area behind the front with highs in the mid 50s to low 60s Wednesday afternoon. Despite these temperatures being cooler than Tuesday, the forecast highs are still near or a few degrees above average for this time of year. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through next Monday) Issued at 1139 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025 Sfc winds are expected to shift back towards the south Wednesday night with southwesterly winds on Thursday. The southwest winds along with mostly sunny skies will lead to warmer, above average temperatures once again Thursday afternoon with highs back in the 60s to low 70s. NW flow is expected to continue through the weekend with another cold front moving across the area Friday. Cooler temperatures are expected Saturday with highs in the mid 40s in north central OK to around 60 in western north TX. Models show a secondary cold front moving across the area over the weekend bringing a re-enforcing shot of cool air which will lead to even cooler temperatures Sunday with highs in the mid 30s to mid 40s. These colder temperatures currently look short lived with highs returning to the 50s maybe low 60s early next week. Despite several cold front passages, the forecast continues to be dry into the weekend. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1042 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025 All terminals are most likely to remain in a VFR category through most the entire forecast. However, there remains a low chance for radiational fog developing between 11-15Z which could impact all terminals except for KWWR & KSWO. Visibilities may slightly reduce in the patchy fog bringing some of our terminals to an MVFR category during that period. Confidence is very low but not completely out that the fog could become more dense reducing visibilities further in that time period. Surface winds will increase out of the south after 18Z around 10 kts with gusts up to 20 kts by 21Z. Surface winds will gradually veer more south- southwesterly after 01Z as a cold front will be near northwest Oklahoma by the end of this forecast period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 33 62 42 56 / 0 0 0 0 Hobart OK 29 64 37 59 / 0 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 33 68 40 62 / 0 0 0 0 Gage OK 30 68 37 56 / 0 0 0 0 Ponca City OK 29 62 40 55 / 0 0 0 0 Durant OK 33 63 42 62 / 0 0 0 0 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. TX...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...25 SHORT TERM...25 LONG TERM....25 AVIATION...68 ####018008160#### FXUS63 KARX 090546 AFDARX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service La Crosse WI 1146 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Light snow moves into north-central Wisconsin this evening, continuing through the overnight hours. Accumulations around 1 inch expected. - Impactful winter weather is possible Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday. Accumulating snowfall is possible north of I-94 where a Winter Storm Watch remains in effect for the potential for upwards of 6 inches of snow (30-50%). Snow accumulations are lower south of I-94 where a wintry mix is favored. - Very cold temperatures for the end of the week. Highs will struggle to climb out of the single digits Friday and Saturday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 229 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025 Today For the rest of the day, some isolated to scattered flurries are possible within the saturated low levels combined with 850hPa warm air advection moving through the region. This evening and overnight, a shortwave trough currently over southern Saskatchewan and Manitoba per water vapor imagery will shift southeastward within the northwest flow regime in place. With some modest moisture advection under currently southerly winds, light snow is expected to develop overnight into Tuesday across much of the region. However, amounts will be light with the greatest accumulations expected for areas north of I-94 where accumulations around 1 inch are possible. Following the snowfall overnight into Wednesday morning, RAP/HRRR soundings indicate dry air beginning to work its way into the region above -10C, resulting in a decrease of cloud ice. This will coincide with forcing via continued warm air advection and isentropic upglide on the 280K surface ahead of the next system, which may be enough to result in periods of light freezing drizzle as we head into Tuesday morning. This could result in some slick spots for the morning commute before deeper saturation moves east an hour or two after sunrise. Impactful Winter Weather Tuesday Afternoon - Wednesday A messy winter scenario sets up Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday as a dynamic system develops across southern Canada and the northern Great Plains before moving through the Upper Midwest. A strong 500hPa shortwave trough deepens Tuesday in association with the left exit region of a stout jet streak, promoting upward vertical motion throughout the atmosphere resulting in a deepening mid-latitude cyclone. The exact location of this feature still remains somewhat in question, but a slight southward shift has been noted in the recent GEFS/EPS solutions. As this winter system moves through the region, a plethora of precipitation types are possible across the region. The rain/snow delineation line sets up somewhere over the Upper Mississippi River Valley, generally along a line from the Twin Cities to far southwest Wisconsin. North of this line, confidence is high that all snow will be realized and south of this line all rain. However, it's along the line and on the leading edge of the snow that is the most uncertain owing to 850hPa warm air advection fluctuating thermal profiles. RAP/HRRR soundings suggest a warm nose develops at 850hPa in response to the warm advection, nudging above freezing in some locations. This warm nose should be deep enough to melt hydrometeors falling into it before then falling into a shallow cold layer near the surface. This leads to the potential for freezing rain, primarily for portions of northeast Iowa and southwest Wisconsin where the 08.12z HREF suggests this potential is highest. However, there soundings also indicate that periods of nearly isothermal profiles along the 0C isotherm are possible which would suggest snow is favored over freezing rain leading to plenty of uncertainty in the ultimate precipitation type. Overall, thinking that the majority of the region will see either rain, snow, or a rain/snow mix, but there is the potential for a few hours of freezing rain primarily over northeast Iowa and southwest Wisconsin Tuesday afternoon and evening before a transition to rain occurs across these regions. Regarding the snowfall, areas along and north of I-94 have the highest probability to see snowfall accumulations greater than 6 inches, 30-50% per the 08.13z NBM. Apart from the messy precipitation type situation, a strong low-level synoptic wind field sets up on the western and southern sides of the low in response to the tightening pressure gradient. Winds upwards of 50kts at 850hPa with a unidirectional profile to the surface combined with steepening low level lapse rates of 7-8C/km will allow efficient momentum transfer of these winds to the surface across the region. Probabilities for gusts greater than 40mph across southeast Minnesota, northeast Iowa, and far southwest Wisconsin are currently situated at 20-40% in the 08.00z LREF, although are noticeable higher in the 08.12z HREF which highlights 70-90%. The latitudinal extent of the low will likely play into how windy our region gets. More southerly and winds will skirt south, more northerly and winds will likely increase. Low level moisture lingers on Wednesday with saturation and lapse rates reaching well into the DGZ. Some weak surface based instability also develops, generally 40 J/kg or less. These factors within cyclonic flow lingering over the region should lead to some additional snow showers developing on Wednesday. Very Cold Temperatures Late This Week When all is said and done with the Tuesday/Wednesday system, strong cold air advection takes hold, ushering colder air into the region through the rest of the week. Temperatures progressively drop Wednesday onward, currently expected to bottom out Saturday. 925hPa temps fall to -18C to -22C overnight Friday climbing only to -17C to -19C during the day Saturday across the region in the 08.00z LREF mean, suggesting lows fall into the teens below zero with highs struggling to climb out of the single digits. Along with the very cold temperatures, probabilities for wind chills of -25F or below sit at 40-60%. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1146 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025 Light snow continues to move east into central Wisconsin. Behind this snow, lowered CIGS and visibilities have been noted and will likely continue through the overnight. With these lowered CIGS, freezing drizzle may be possible (20 to 30%) during the overnight period. Flight categories look to improve to VFR conditions briefly during the mid morning to early afternoon hours until the round of rain/snow arrives this afternoon/evening. At this time, the flight categories dip back down into the IFR range. Precipitation type will be a problem with this system. Snow is expected for areas along and north of I-94 the entire time while areas to the south will see a mix of rain and snow and potentially some freezing rain, mainly in late afternoon/early evening for the freezing rain. Later on during the evening, the precipitation type will turn to all snow. Predominant southerly winds expected through much of the TAF period. There is a brief window of some west to northwest winds during the mid morning. After a cold front pushes through between 03 and 06Z, winds shift to the northwest and will become quite breezy, with gusts of 30 to 40 mph by the end of the TAF period. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...Winter Weather Advisory from 3 PM Tuesday to 6 AM CST Wednesday for WIZ032>034-042>044. Winter Storm Warning from 3 PM Tuesday to 6 AM CST Wednesday for WIZ017-029. MN...Winter Weather Advisory from 3 PM Tuesday to 6 AM CST Wednesday for MNZ079. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Falkinham AVIATION...Cecava ####018009200#### FXUS61 KOKX 090546 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 1246 AM EST Tue Dec 9 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build from the west into Tuesday, then weaken and shift offshore Tuesday night as a weak clipper low passes to the north. A stronger low approaching on Wednesday will pass to the north and send a cold front through Wednesday night. High pressure will then build southeast from the northern Plains to the Mid Atlantic coast from Thursday into Friday, then move off the Southeast coast Friday afternoon. Another clipper low will pass close by Friday night into Saturday morning, followed by Canadian high pressure this weekend. An Arctic cold front will move through on Sunday, with strong high pressure building in on Monday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... Key Point: * Bitterly cold tonight with temperatures falling into the single digits and teens; coldest air since February for most. Higher cloud deck lingers over the region through this evening as low pressure tracks away from the Carolina coast, though this should begin to thin overnight. Closer to home, a 1028 mb surface high centered near Lake Erie will build over the region, with winds lightening into this evening as the pressure gradient relaxes. The lighter flow could allow for more efficient radiative cooling overnight, so continued to blend in MOS guidance to better capture this potential. Either way it will be very cold, better than 15 degrees below climo, with temperatures falling back into the single digits inland, and the teens along the coast. Given the weak winds, wind chills will be close to actual temperatures and no cold headlines warranted. Dry conditions prevail. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Key Points: * Gradual warmup into midweek, with high temperatures back into the 40s on Wednesday. * A couple of quick moving low pressure systems brush or impact the area Tuesday night through Wednesday night. Best chance for wintry precipitation will be NW of NYC on Wednesday, but even these locations should likely change to plain rain. High pressure over the region shifts offshore on Tuesday, and SW flow sets up by the afternoon. This will help modify the air mass in place, first for coastal areas from the marine influence with ocean SSTs still around 50, then region-wide by Wednesday with persistent WAA. So while Tuesday remains unseasonably cold, temperatures climb above the freezing mark into the mid/upper 30s along the coast by afternoon, with upper 20s inland. A more active pattern begins to develop into mid week as a series of shortwaves move east in the progressive upper flow, introducing a couple of chances for precipitation. First system passes through New England Tuesday night, though limited moisture and weak forcing this far south should keep most dry. Best chance of seeing any light snow is across southeast CT, though PoP here sits at only chance (25-30%), and wouldn't be surprised if most remain entirely dry. Any coastal precip could mix with or fall as light rain given marginal boundary layer temperatures, but again, QPF is light, a few hundredths of an inch liquid at most. This first system quickly scoots away north and east, with a more potent shortwave following behind it Wednesday into Wednesday night. This will bring a better chance for a more widespread precipitation, though with a warming column, the bulk of the precip looks to fall as rain, particularly along the coast. North and west of NYC, ptype could start out as snow, or a mix, until the WAA wins out enough to force a changeover to plain rain. Any accumulation is likely either light or negligible before the changeover and temperatures Wednesday look to get into the 40s for most. Wind speeds increase Wednesday afternoon with the associated LLJ moving overhead, and leaned on NBM 90th percentile for winds in this period given NBM low bias with these regimes. After the initial wave, dry slot likely comes in later Wednesday, and any lingering precip likely tapers as a light rain as conditions dry out further Wed night behind the attendant cold frontal passage. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Key Points: * Temperatures will be at least several degrees below normal Thursday through Saturday, then trend even colder early next week. * A clipper low will pass to the south Friday night into Saturday morning, with a chance of light snow. This still does not look like a significant winter weather event. It will be brisk and cold Thursday into Friday after a cold frontal passage, and as the pressure gradient tightens up between high pressure building to our southwest and low pressure intensifying over eastern Canada. Winds relax Friday afternoon as the high moves off the Southeast coast. ECMWF and its ensemble are consistent on the idea of a clipper low passing to the south Fri night/Sat but not on its track or strength, with the 07/12Z cycle showing the low passing just south of the CWA and delivering a light snowfall capable of meeting advisory criteria inland, while the 00Z cycle shows northern stream energy much slower to enter the picture, allowing shortwave ridging in its advance over Ontario to shunt the low even farther south, with minimal snowfall. The 08/12Z ECMWF was in between these two ideas, so less suppressed but still delaying northern stream energy and lighter on potential snowfall. The overall idea through Saturday is that northern stream energy will be too disjointed at that time to be capable of delivering more than a sub-advisory light snowfall. Forecast is currently dry and colder for both Sunday and Monday, with already below normal temps dropping to 10 or more degrees below normal. However, with the ECMWF in the last few cycles delaying the arrival of northern stream energy, another stronger clipper low could bring snow on Sunday, with Arctic air delayed until Sunday night. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... High pressure shifts through the region today. VFR. N winds mainly under 10kt through the morning push, except light and variable away from the city terminals. Winds eventually become southerly this afternoon before veering more SW tonight and increasing. Gusts 20-25kt for the coastal terminals tonight. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... No unscheduled amendments expected. .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... Late tonight: VFR. SW gusts 20-25kt for the coastal terminals. Wednesday: MVFR or lower possible with a chance of rain/snow across interior Lower Hudson Valley early. Then a chance of rain during the afternoon and into the evening. S-SW 10-15g25-30 kt possible. Thursday: VFR. W gusts 20-25 kt. Friday: Mainly VFR. MVFR possible in any rain or snow showers late in the day or at night. W gusts around 20 kt. Saturday: Brief MVFR possible east early, otherwise VFR. W gusts 20- 25 kt. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 && .MARINE... Gusty N winds diminish into this evening. Based on latest buoy obs showing gusts still over 25 kt at 44025 and likely to continue for a few more hours, extended SCA E of Fire Island Inlet until 9 PM. Otherwise, quiet on the waters tonight as high pressure builds over the region. A series of clipper systems will then impact the waters Tuesday night through Wednesday night. A brief period of gales remains possible on the ocean Tuesday evening and night, before a better chance of gales develops Wednesday afternoon and evening. SCA conditions likely on all waters at the least during this period. SCA cond likely on all waters Thu into Thu night, with W-NW flow gusting to 25-30 kt and some gusts on the ocean approaching minimal gale force. Seas Thu AM start out at 8-11 ft E of Fire Island Inlet and 5-8 ft W of there, gradually subsiding to 5-6 ft E and 3-5 ft W by daybreak Fri. Any lull in wind gusts/seas just below 25 kt/5 ft on the ocean late Fri into Fri night will be short lived, as winds increase with passage of a low to our south, and cold air advection in its wake. SCA cond likely on the ocean late Fri night, then developing on all waters Sat afternoon as flow veers from W to NW. Some gusts on the ocean once again could approach minimal gale force Sat night as seas build to 4-7 ft. && .HYDROLOGY... No hydrologic impacts are expected through the week. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BG/DR NEAR TERM...BG/DR SHORT TERM...DR LONG TERM...BG AVIATION...JC/JE MARINE...BG/DR HYDROLOGY...BG/DR ####018007627#### FXUS65 KTFX 090547 AFDTFX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 1047 PM MST Mon Dec 8 2025 Aviation Section Updated. .KEY MESSAGES... - Strong winds develop and become widespread across much of north-central and southwest Montana tonight through Tuesday morning. - Widespread above normal temperatures continue through Wednesday. - Precipitation is mainly focused along the continental divide through Tuesday where snow levels fluctuate at or above 6000 ft. - Precipitation and the potential for accumulating snowfall becomes more widespread across north-central Montana later this week as a colder airmass also moves back south into the region. && .UPDATE... /Issued 850 PM MST Mon Dec 8 2025/ Cross barrier H700 flow in excess of 75 kts will continue to move through the Northern Rockies tonight into Tuesday. After a brief lull, winds along the Rocky Mountain Front and adjacent plains west of I15 have increased significantly over the last hour. Winds will continue increasing and will move eastward and deeper into the plains by Tuesday morning. Wind gusts will mostly remain in the 50 to 75 mph range with gusts over 80 mph at times along the Rocky Mountain Front and the plains west of I15. Those traveling with high profile vehicles or towing light weight trailers in and near the areas with gusts exceeding 75 mph should consider delaying travel. This includes highway 287 north of Bowman's Corner, highway 89 along the Rocky Mountain Front, and the stretch of highway 191 near Judith Gap. No updating is necessary this evening, but the high wind warning statements were freshened per current trends. - RCG && .DISCUSSION... /Issued 850 PM MST Mon Dec 8 2025/ - Meteorological Overview: A very active weather pattern continues through the week as a strong westerly flow and plume of deep Pacific moisture remains oriented across the Northern Rockies and MT with embedded disturbances bringing multiple rounds of precipitation, initially focused along the continental divide, but expanding further east across central and north-central MT later this week. Meanwhile, mild Pacific air will maintain above average temperatures and relatively high snow-levels through the next few days before a much colder airmass surges back south into north-central MT later this week. Mid-level westerly flow increases further tonight as a shortwave disturbance rapidly translates east from BC to AB with surface low pressure emerging in southern AB and tracking across southern SK Tuesday morning. Strong winds re-intensify this evening along the Rocky Mtn Front with the arrival of 70-80kt 700mb winds and spread east across north-central and central MT overnight tonight through Tuesday morning. Temperatures will remain mild tonight with many lower elevation areas seeing steady temperatures in the 40s as winds increase and thick cloud-cover persists. Precipitation remains mainly confined to areas along the continental divide through Tuesday morning where snow levels currently around 6000 ft rise to 7000 ft or more overnight, limiting any impactful snowfall to the highest terrain above passes. Winds shift more northwesterly on Tuesday behind the surface low across eastern portions portions of north-central MT with enough cooling aloft and weak instability present to support some convective shower development, mainly across Hill/Blaine/Fergus counties. Temperatures cool just enough in these areas Tuesday afternoon to support snow or a mix of rain/snow with main impact being brief visibility reduction in these showers. Another embedded shortwave moves across the Northern Rockies Wednesday with snow levels remaining high along the continental divide where the bulk of the precipitation occurs, while a period of lighter rain/snow shifts across the plains early Wednesday before westerly flow spreads mild but windy conditions back east across the area. A colder airmass begins to spread back south into north-central MT Wednesday night through Thursday with the colder air lingering through at least Saturday morning before retreating back north. Meanwhile, additional shortwave disturbance move across the region with an east west frontal zone aloft becoming a focus for precipitation Thursday and Friday. Latest model guidance trends are supporting the potential for several inches of snow accumulation across portions of north-central and central MT Thursday and Friday with still a fair amount of uncertainty in specific amounts. Hoenisch - Forecast Confidence & Scenarios: Ingredients for mountain wave enhancement are focused mainly along the Rocky Mountain Front this evening, shifting to areas adjacent to the Little Belts across Judith Basin county late tonight through Tuesday morning. Wind gusts in excess of 75 mph are likely along the Rocky Mtn Front with a 30-40% chance of wind gusts reaching this magnitude across Judith Basin County, where winds of this magnitude are not as frequent and may be more impactful than those along the Rocky Mtn Front. The arrival of colder air later this week has seen some fluctuations in timing with still considerable uncertainty in how far south the cold air will penetrate beyond central MT. Most model guidance keeps the colder airmass limited to the plains. By Friday it is possible that locations on the plains see afternoon temperatures in the single digits while southwest MT valley locations remain above average with afternoon temperatures in the 40s. Hoenisch && .AVIATION... 09/06Z TAF Period The primary concern this TAF period will be for strong surface winds and gusts across the region. In areas where surface winds are lighter, low-level wind shear will be a concern. Widespread mountain wave turbulence is forecast, especially through the overnight. Ample moisture streaming in across the Continental Divide will at the very least obscure mountains, and may result in precipitation further east at times. VFR conditions are favored overall, with brief instances of MVFR not out of the question. -AM && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 42 50 33 54 / 20 50 60 70 CTB 38 43 25 44 / 30 40 30 40 HLN 40 48 33 52 / 50 70 80 80 BZN 36 47 30 54 / 20 50 70 80 WYS 25 39 26 41 / 80 90 90 90 DLN 38 48 33 53 / 30 50 70 50 HVR 31 45 20 41 / 40 70 20 80 LWT 34 46 24 48 / 30 70 40 90 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... High Wind Warning until 10 AM MST Tuesday for Cascade County below 5000ft-East Glacier Park Region-Eastern Glacier, Western Toole, and Central Pondera-Eastern Pondera and Eastern Teton- Eastern Toole and Liberty-Gates of the Mountains-Madison River Valley-Northern High Plains-Southern High Plains-Southern Rocky Mountain Front-Upper Blackfoot and MacDonald Pass. High Wind Warning until 3 PM MST Tuesday for Bears Paw Mountains and Southern Blaine-Big Belt, Bridger and Castle Mountains- Fergus County below 4500ft-Hill County-Judith Basin County and Judith Gap-Little Belt and Highwood Mountains-Meagher County Valleys-Northern Blaine County-Snowy and Judith Mountains- Western and Central Chouteau County. && $$ http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls ####018003149#### FXUS63 KGID 090548 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 1148 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Tuesday will be relatively warm and breezy. - Mostly dry conditions are expected through the next 7-10 days. There is only a low chance for light precipitation Wednesday night through Thursday night (mainly north). - Friday through the weekend will turn colder again. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 211 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025 Skies have cleared across the area, and westerly winds are pushing temperatures into the 40s and 50s. This continues tomorrow, with stronger westerly winds pushing temperatures into the 50s and 60s across the area. The most intense winds are expected to remain over western Nebraska and South Dakota, but locally gusts could still reach the 30 MPH in many areas. Clouds increase late Tuesday, but any precipitation associated with a clipper system should remain safely to our north and east. Northwesterly winds will increase as a cold front pushes through the area Tuesday evening into Tuesday night. Gusts around 40 MPH will be possible in northern areas to start the day on Wednesday, but will gradually diminish through the day. Wednesday will be cooler in the post-frontal airmass (but not particularly cold by December standards). There is still a low chance (20-30%) for light precip (mainly snow) in northern areas Wednesday night into Thursday morning, but the trend has been downward on global ensembles runs. Another quick-moving upper-level shortwave brings another opportunity for flurries or light snow to the area Thursday night, but otherwise the forecast remains quiet and dry through the weekend and into next week. In fact, The GEFS and EPS ensembles indicate a 50-90% chance of seeing LESS than 0.10" of QPF through the next 10 days. The shortwave Thursday night will push some colder air into the region for Friday through the weekend. Single digit lows and high temperatures in the 20s are expected for much of the area (a touch warmer in the south and southwest). && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1145 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025 For KGRI/KEAR Airports: VFR conditions expected through the period with any cloud cover being mainly mid to high level. Light winds this morning will give way to breezy Wrly winds for late AM into mid afternoon. Primary aviation issue will be passage of a strong cold front after sunset, generally around 01Z to 03Z. Can't rule out some sprinkles with the front, but not expecting enough to include attm. Much more impactful will be increasingly strong NWrly winds, becoming sustained 15-25kt, and gusts 35-40kt. Despite the incr of winds at the surface, winds just 1000-1500ft off the ground will be even stronger (45-55kt), and could lead to marginal low level wind shear. Confidence: Medium to high. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Mangels AVIATION...Thies ####018005754#### FXUS66 KMTR 090549 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 949 PM PST Mon Dec 8 2025 ...New AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 243 PM PST Mon Dec 8 2025 - Tule fog and stratus return tonight for Bay Area valleys. - Quiet and benign weather this week. - Next chance for rain is around December 15. && .UPDATE... Issued at 855 PM PST Mon Dec 8 2025 A strong 500 mb high pressure system (585 decameter height) remains over the forecast area. This continues to result in dry weather. Large scale compressional warming of air within the high continues to result in close to 90th percentile (or slightly greater) temperatures at each of the mandatory pressure levels from 925 mb to 500 mb on the Oakland upper air sounding for the time of year. This warmth is aloft, with milder to warmer temperatures also over our forecast area at ground level where it remains clear/sunny during the day, an early December sun angle heat input reaching the ground connecting and mixing with warm air availability just overhead near the temperature inversion. However, this air mass stability is also resulting in a much different story near and at ground level where fog and stratus prevail much if not all day e.g. in the East Bay and the North Bay valleys, also reaching the San Francisco Peninsula on mainly light offshore winds; it's been markedly chillier on a daily basis in these areas since November 25th. For the time being high pressure remains in control of our area's weather, which extends through the rest of the week with some weakening of the high over the weekend, but only marginally with 500 mb heights barely lowering below 580 decameters. && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 243 PM PST Mon Dec 8 2025 (This evening through Tuesday) The stagnant pattern continues with the story being cloudy conditions returning tonight for areas that cleared around the Bay Area and clear conditions for much of the Central Coast. This should keep low temperatures generally in the 40s for Bay Area counties and Santa Cruz County. Elsewhere in the Central Coast, lows will vary from the upper 30s to low 40s for the interior portions, while c coastal areas sit closer to the mid 40s. A new forecast challenge also arrives for tonight as temperatures were a bit chillier than expected last night for the northern Salinas Valley and along the coast of the southern Monterey Bay area. For now kept NBM in for the lows; however, should temps drop like last night they may need to be adjusted a few degrees cooler. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 243 PM PST Mon Dec 8 2025 (Tuesday night through next Sunday) High pressure holds through the week, leading to dry conditions through the weekend. Temperatures should warm by mid week, before cooling a bit again over the weekend. The next chance for rain looks to be around December 15, where the NBM favors the best chances of rain around the North Bay with a 15-20% expanding to the East and South Bay counties and into Santa Cruz County. Ensembles do show the ridge flattening some which could allow a front to make it into the region. The details will likely change, so stay tuned. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 948 PM PST Mon Dec 8 2025 Low clouds and fog have reformed in the North Bay and interior East Bay. SFO and SJC see CIGs arrive in the late night with some slight reductions in visibilities. Winds stay mostly light to moderate through the TAF period, with wind directions determined by more localized affects. Cloud cover and fog will be slow to erode into Wednesday afternoon, but conditions look to improve into the late afternoon. However, the North and East Bay will continue to struggle with low clouds and fog, causing some doubt for clearing at APC. As cloud cover erodes, pockets of haze will affect much of the region. Winds reduce again into Wednesday evening with fog and low cloud looking again to reform in the North Bay and interior East Bay. Vicinity of SFO...VFR lasts into the late night. Winds become lighter into the night with scattered low clouds building into the area, along with some slight reduction in visibilities. IFR level CIGs fill into the late night with some weak easterly winds. Cloud cover thins into the afternoon, but winds stay light and turn slightly more northerly. These wind look to become light and variable into the late evening. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR through the TAF period. Winds stay light for MRY through the TAF period, while SNS sees moderate westnorthwest rebuild into Wednesday afternoon. These winds become light and variable into that night. && .MARINE... (Tonight through next Sunday) Issued at 948 PM PST Mon Dec 8 2025 North and northwest flow continues with moderate to fresh winds continuing south of Point Sur. Winds increase to a strong breeze Tuesday into mid week across the outer waters. A new, long period northwesterly swell is expected by midday Wednesday,lasting into the early weekend. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PST Tuesday for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm. && $$ SHORT TERM...KR LONG TERM....KR AVIATION...Murdock MARINE...Murdock Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea ####018005288#### FXUS65 KPUB 090549 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 1049 PM MST Mon Dec 8 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Warm and breezy on Tuesday, with areas of strong winds gusting 50 to 60 mph over mountains through the day. - Dry and mild temperatures expected through much of the long term period. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 216 PM MST Mon Dec 8 2025 Mild December weather at many locations today, as northwest flow aloft continues. Have seen some gap and lee slope w-nw winds gusting 20-30 kts at times, especially through much of the Arkansas Valley, along with a corresponding boost in temperatures, as readings have pushed into the 50s to near 60f over most of the plains. Tonight and Tuesday, mid/upper level winds increase, as strong upper jet digs into the nrn High Plains. Should see winds increase across much of the high terrain through the night, with gusty winds spreading to lower east slopes and gap flow favored regions (Arkansas Valley from Canon City to Pueblo plus downstream from La Veta Pass to Walsenburg) toward sunrise. As a result, overnight min temps will be milder, especially in wind-prone regions. Strong winds aloft continue through the Tuesday, with gusts 40-60 mph likely over the higher peaks and passes, especially from Monarch Pass northward. Gap flow winds will persist as well, with gusts 35-45 mph around Walsenburg, 25-35 mph Pueblo/Canon City. Deep mixing should boost max temps a few degf at many areas, and ran with numbers slightly higher than blended guidance, especially in windy locations. Might be enough moisture for a few snow showers late int the day over the higher peaks around Leadville, but no substantial snowfall expected, though winds will be strong enough for widespread blowing/drifting snow, especially at/above pass level. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 232 AM MST Mon Dec 8 2025 Tuesday: For Tuesday, relatively quiet weather is anticipated for south central and southeastern Colorado, though with windy conditions for many. Northwesterly flow will be in place over the region, and given the lack of any major forcing, dry conditions are expected. The exception to this may be an isolated snow shower or two along the central mountains where orographic forcing will be ongoing. Beyond that though, as alluded to, it will be fairly breezy areawide. Weak mountain wave dynamics are anticipated to be in place, allowing for strong winds up to around 60 mph to develop along the leeward side of many of the major mountain ranges, particularly the Sawatch, Sangre de Cristo, and Rampart Mountains. While stronger winds will be possible along the mountains, confidence in that is low (20%) at this time, as model guidance keeps stronger flow north of the area, and the wind orientation, northwesterly, doesn't usually favor intense downslope windstorms. Outside of that, gusty winds up to 40-50 mph are expected in the prominent gap flow areas of La Veta Pass and through the Arkansas River Valley from Fremont County into Pueblo County, with gusts of 20-25 mph elsewhere. Otherwise, mild temperatures and partly cloudy skies are anticipated for the area. Looking at temperatures, much of the region will warm to above seasonal values thanks to the downsloping winds, with 50s to 60s for the plains, 40s for the valleys, and 30s to 40s for the mountains. Tuesday Night - Sunday: For the rest of the long term period, quiet weather prevails for south central and southeastern Colorado. Northwesterly will remain in place over the region, and given the lack of major forcing, dry conditions are expected to persist. Confidence in this pattern is high (80%) given strong agreement between ensemble model guidance. Like Tuesday though, an isolated snow shower can't be ruled out along the central mountains where orographic forcing will be greatest. Otherwise, breezy conditions will continue, especially along the mountains, with pockets of mid to high level clouds expected through this period. As for temperatures, above seasonal temperatures are anticipated to continue given downsloping winds. With that said though, there may be backdoor cold fronts that push across the area during this timeframe, which would drop temperatures, especially across the plains. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1041 PM MST Mon Dec 8 2025 Variable mid and high clouds will overspread the region over the next 24 hours. Winds will remain light and variable at KALS. KCOS and KPUB will see gusty west to northwest winds on Tuesday, kicking in earliest at KPUB as winds spread down the Arkansas River valley. KCOS may see a later timing of northwest winds. As winds increase during the evening low level wind shear will become an increasing concern at both KCOS and KPUB and have introduced a WS group in both terminals which should last through 06z. -KT && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...EHR LONG TERM...SIMCOE AVIATION...KT