####018005263#### FXUS64 KEPZ 112017 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM 217 PM MDT Sat May 11 2024 ...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 201 PM MDT Sat May 11 2024 Dry conditions return this evening under breezy west winds. Fire danger will be the primary weather concern again this week. Seasonal temperatures with lighter winds midweek, along with slight chances of showers and thunderstorms over the high terrain in central New Mexico. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 201 PM MDT Sat May 11 2024 Moisture boundary sits across eastern Otero/Hudspeth Counties this afternoon, with convective activity occurring along the fringes of our CWA. Upper low over the Central Rockies reinforcing southwesterly flow will push this moisture off to the east and out of the local forecast area this evening, with a very weak return flow overnight. We'll see a few gusts to 30-35 mph this evening, subsiding overnight. We're back to the prevailing pattern of dry, west flow on Sunday. Temperatures will be a bit cooler, right near normal for mid-May with lowland highs in the mid 80s. The main weather concern going forward will be fire danger, but not expecting any headlines as winds decrease under a weak ridge aloft. Tuesday looks to be the warmest day of the week right now, with a high of 93 at El Paso. Weak Pacific low will approach the region midweek, with current ensemble trajectories showing confidence in a track along the International Border. Marginal moisture return from the north may occur with this, allowing for some low-end thunderstorm and rain shower chances over Central New Mexico and the National Forests. Precipitation chances remain quite low for the El Paso metro through late May. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1113 AM MDT Sat May 11 2024 Southeast surface flow along the Rio Grande valley this morning is in the process of shifting back to a dry, southwest flow this afternoon. Current winds of 150-180 shifting to 220-250 by 20Z, with gusts up to 30 knots across southwest New Mexico mid- afternoon. Skies remaining SKC at KELP with convective activity to the east this evening. Winds subside overnight, generally 280-310 at 08-12 knots. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 201 PM MDT Sat May 11 2024 West flow 15 to 25 mph on Sunday combined with min RH 6-12%, leading to Elevated fire danger. No fire headlines expected at this time as winds remain just below critical thresholds. Excellent smoke ventilation beginning after 12PM, with transport due east. Lighter afternoon winds Monday and Tuesday as temperatures warm under high pressure aloft. Ventilation remains Very Good due to high mixing heights. Slight chance of thunder over the New Mexico forests on Thursday, which poses a threat of dry lightning. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 60 86 61 90 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 55 80 55 83 / 10 0 0 0 Las Cruces 53 85 55 89 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 50 82 52 84 / 10 0 0 10 Cloudcroft 38 58 39 61 / 10 0 0 20 Truth or Consequences 51 83 55 84 / 0 0 0 10 Silver City 44 74 49 78 / 0 0 0 10 Deming 48 83 51 87 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 48 81 50 85 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 57 83 58 87 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 51 85 50 87 / 10 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 53 87 54 90 / 10 0 0 0 Loma Linda 53 77 54 81 / 10 0 0 0 Fabens 55 86 56 89 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 50 82 53 86 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 58 83 61 86 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 48 83 51 86 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 47 85 51 88 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 53 83 56 86 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 52 81 53 84 / 10 0 0 0 Mayhill 42 70 43 72 / 10 0 0 10 Mescalero 40 69 42 72 / 10 0 0 20 Timberon 41 68 42 71 / 10 0 0 10 Winston 41 74 46 76 / 0 0 0 10 Hillsboro 46 81 51 82 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 45 82 48 84 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 39 75 43 78 / 0 0 0 10 Hurley 42 77 46 81 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 45 81 49 85 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 45 77 49 81 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 45 77 50 81 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 48 81 50 85 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 48 81 51 85 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 48 81 50 85 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 49 76 50 80 / 0 0 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...30-Dennhardt ####018004526#### FXUS63 KGID 112018 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 318 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Expect increasing clouds, and at least a chance for isolated showers and thunderstorms, tonight. More scattered activity is likely on Sunday, particularly during the afternoon and evening. The morning hours will not be a complete "washout". - Overall, seasonably mild temperatures with off and on again chances for thunderstorms remain in the forecast through the end up the upcoming week. - Despite it being mid-May and nearing climatological peak severe weather season, chances for severe thunderstorms over the next 7 days is pretty low. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 242 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024 EXTREMELY nice and pleasant weather out there currently - it really doesn't get much better than this for mid-May. Temperatures in the 70s to low 80s, low dew points, plentiful sunshine, and wind speeds 10-15 MPH, or less. It will cloud up a bit more for the eve hrs, but dry conditions should prevail through 03Z, at least for all but perhaps Furnas and Rooks Co. Chances for isolated showers and thunderstorms will gradually increase through the overnight, but general consensus in latest hi-res guidance was for lesser coverage/organization tonight into Sun AM, and slower arrival. So main change this forecast package was to lower and slower the PoP grid. We still have "likely" level PoPs for S/SW 2/3rds of the CWA by midday Sunday, but this may still be overdone and make the AM hrs sound worse/wetter than what I think they'll be. In fact, latest 18Z HRRR doesn't have anything more than isolated to widely scattered activity until at least early aftn hrs. Cold mid level temps associated with the incoming upper trough should steepen lapse rates enough to get some tall, skinny CAPE and actual thunderstorms for the mid afternoon through early eve time frame, and the uptick in forcing/ascent should help to increase the overall coverage. So if you have outdoor plans for Mother's Day, earlier in the day will be better than later. CAPE will likely remain less than 1000 J/kg, and all but our KS zones will have weak deep layer shear, so severe weather appears unlikely. Perhaps the higher shear (30-35kt from 0-6km) could lead to a few cores with small hail, but this seems like worst case. Highs are a bit tricky with the cloud cover and pcpn, but a lack of significant cold push should still support 60s and 70s, warmest N and E of the Tri-Cities where it takes the longest for thicker cloud cover to arrive. It's a fairly slow moving upper trough with no real rush of dry air, so chances continue through Sun night (50-80%), and even into Mon AM (20-80%) - particularly for areas E and S of the Tri-Cities. This activity will be on the NW side of main mid/upper low, so severe weather remains unlikely. Temps will be similar to Sun in that 60s to low 70s will be most favored where dense overcast/pcpn are most likely to last the longest, with more low to mid 70s for areas that clear out sooner. We look to clear out behind this system for Tuesday, which should allow for a rather nice day with highs in the 70s/80s amidst seasonably light winds. Shower/storm chances return to the area already Tue night into Wed associated with a weak cold front. Deep moisture and instability is lacking, so not expecting any severe weather or widespread rainfall. Temps will only be slightly cooler for Wednesday. The rest of the forecast will feature more of the same with generally split, zonal upper flow and only minor/weak disturbances. So we'll see more 70s/80s and off and on shower/storm chances. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 102 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024 VFR expected through the period. Sunny skies with a few aftn CU will give way to incr mid to high clds this eve into the overnight. BKN to OVC expected on much of Sunday, along with scattered showers and weak storms. Kept it as VCSH for now, until specific timing and coverage becomes more certain. Winds will vary from NW to W rest of today, then W to SSW tonight into Sunday, but speeds will remain modest at around 6-11kt. Confidence: Med to high. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Thies AVIATION...Thies ####018006376#### FXUS64 KCRP 112018 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 318 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Sunday night) Issued at 314 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024 Key Messages: - Low to medium chance (15-40%) showers and thunderstorms tonight - Marginal Risk of Excessive Rainfall The cold/stationary front that was south of BRO yesterday, has moved north as a warm front the fine line on radar (19Z) shows the line from HBV to IKG and then east off into the Gulf. Scattered showers and thunderstorms (30-40%) will continue to break out, mainly ahead of the front through the rest of the afternoon and early evening. Overnight, a 500 mb shortwave trough will move into the Sierra Madre. The GFS and a few CAMs produce a MCS which then devolves into various solutions. The FV3 produces a supercell which moves through Webb and Duval counties. The ARW produces a cluster of thunderstorms that rides the northern forecast border with EWX and then moves into the Victoria Crossroads. The ECMWF and the rest of the CAMs (NAMNest/NAMDNG/Etc.) show that the main rain stays in the Hill Country and moves east with the wave, and the rest of the night has isolated to scattered showers (15-25%). Depending on the convective initiation, there is a Marginal Risk for Excessive rainfall in the western part of the forecast area, but since the HREF and NBM shows a mix of the two solutions with low probabilities (10-30%)through the night, not expecting the rain to be there. However, if the GFS camp of models is right, then it excessive rain is possible. In any case, have gone with the NBM solution, although based on the morning convection and ongoing showers, am leaning toward the ECMWF camps idea with light showers now, and most of the rain going through the Hill Country. Once the last bit of convection is through at 12z/Sun, the rest of Sunday looks quiet, but will still have low chance (20- 30%) in the Victoria crossroads with the warm front still near by, and the 1.5-2.0" PWAT values. Sunday night looks like it will be quiet and continued muggy with us back in the warm sector and the chances for rain are back in the northern part of the Hill Country. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through next Friday) Issued at 310 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024 Key Messages: - A few strong to severe storms possible Monday A mid-level low center pushes across north of the area on Monday with a surface boundary through North Texas. We'll see plenty of CAPE build up over eastern portions of our forecast area, but should stay capped much of the day. With increasing temps/dpts in the low levels, it looks like that cap could break late in the afternoon or early evening. If it does, conditions would be good for thunderstorm development with supercells possible. Forecast sounding suggest the primary threat would be hail with 50+kt of 0-6km shear...but mostly speed shear with little in the way of veering winds. Low level (0-1km) shear values generally under 10 with a pretty straight looking hodograph. Steep lapse rates are also noted. It's a very conditional threat, but if the cap can break severe storms will be possible, primarily between 5 and 10 PM. By Tuesday deep layer moisture decreases significantly, thus drying things out for a couple of days. We will keep the surface onshore flow, however and dewpoints stay up in the 70s. Our next disturbance will enter the picture Thursday into Friday. There's significant uncertainty in the late week forecast at this time with some guidance pushing a front through, but has in general backed off on the strength of this since yesterday, and wouldn't be surprised to see that trend continue this late in spring. Will no doubt see some adjustments in the forecast for Thursday-Saturday period, but at least low end rain chances are there at this time. High temperatures mainly in the 90s for the first half of the week along with dewpoints steadily in the 70s (upper 70s east) will continue to maintain a low to moderate heat risk through at least Wednesday. Beyond that will depend on cloud cover and rain chances. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1232 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024 The stalled front south of BRO yesterday, is moving north as a warm front today. The boundary will serve a focus for showers and thunderstorms through the afternoon and into the evening (chance is 15-30%). The moisture return will continue to produce somewhat hazy conditions through the afternoon and will produce MVFR and some IFR CIGs overnight. A upper disturbance will bring a chance (30%) for showers and thunderstorms for the late evening (03z/Sun) in the Rio Grande Plains and the western Brush Country (COT/LRD). By Sunday morning, the front is expected to be north of the forecast, and the upper disturbance near the Victoria Crossroads (VCT). Showers and thunderstorms may respark before end of the TAF period (18z/Sun) && .MARINE... Issued at 314 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024 Winds will veer southeast overnight and into Sunday. Increased moisture and an upper level disturbance will lead to a 20-40% chance of showers and thunderstorms through the weekend. Hazy conditions are also expected to continue for the next few days. East to southeast flow will continue at mainly light or light to moderate levels through the end of the work-week. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible Monday and again late in the week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 77 90 77 92 / 10 20 10 30 Victoria 73 87 76 91 / 30 40 20 50 Laredo 75 98 77 101 / 20 0 10 10 Alice 74 94 76 95 / 20 20 10 30 Rockport 77 87 77 86 / 20 30 10 40 Cotulla 76 97 78 98 / 30 10 20 20 Kingsville 75 92 77 94 / 10 20 10 30 Navy Corpus 79 87 79 89 / 10 30 10 30 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...JSL/86 LONG TERM....PH/83 AVIATION...JSL ####018008385#### FXUS65 KBOU 112019 AFDBOU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 219 PM MDT Sat May 11 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers/thunderstorms are possible (>50%) for much of the day Sunday, with locally moderate rainfall. Thunderstorms could begin as early as 9 AM, but become more favorable during the afternoon hours. Several inches of snow are possible above 9,500 ft elevation. - Drier and milder Monday outside of a few mountain showers/storms. - Turning more active again Tuesday and Wednesday with increased chances for showers and thunderstorms across high country and lower elevations. && .SHORT TERM /Through Sunday/... Issued at 131 PM MDT Sat May 11 2024 GOES-17 water vapor imagery shows a slowly moving vorticity max moving slowly to the east across the AZ/UT border. By sunrise Sunday the trough should be directly overhead the central part of Colorado, then over western Kansas by Sunday evening. Several sources of lift should be in place as the trough moves overhead. There is a fair amount of QG lift as well as a deformation zone that wraps around the 500 mb low, especially Sunday morning. Additionally, the core of the trough is -18 degC at 500 mb, and not to be outdone, there is strong northeast flow across the plains starting mid-morning Sunday. Overall it will be hard to pin down best periods and locations of rain because of a few competing factors, including the potential for a stratus layer Sunday morning. Let's start with overnight first. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms should dissipate and/or move east of our area before midnight tonight. We've lowered PoPs a bit overnight between midnight and sunrise as most CAMs do not break out much precip, which makes sense with the loss of sun/instability and before the arrival of the QG lift and deformation zone. Those features look to arrive between 8-10 AM more or less, but models have been backing off QPF associated with this banded feature. Instability is lacking, so much that if the band forms, it'll probably just be light rain without any thunder. CAMs have likewise been wishy-washy on the location of this banded rainfall, but latest trends have the band across I-70 or points south. The uncertainty has led to PoPs going from 20 percent across the northern tier Colorado Counties to 60 percent across I-70 and the Palmer Divide during the morning hours. Most CAMs, other than the HRRR, have low clouds in place which would limit instability as mentioned earlier, and even without the clouds the HRRR has been backing off on QPF from this first round of showers. Assuming low clouds either don't form or evaporate by midday, there should be enough instability to form showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon across all but the areas near the Wyoming border. These will be widely scattered and thus the highest PoPs are still only about 60%, but if you happen to be under one of these showers you might experience moderate rain, gusty winds 25-30 mph, and very small hail are possible. In terms of temperatures, it's interesting that after the trough axis passes and northerly flow kicks in aloft by late morning, there will actually be warm advection in the 700-500 mb layer, and areas with more sun like along and north of US-34, high temps will top out near 70 deg. In the thicker cloud cover, including Denver/Boulder metro areas and the plains to the east and south, highs will likely only be in the low to mid 60s. Middle/North Parks should also be in the 50s to near 60, but thick clouds and also probably the best chance of precip across Park County and the foothills from Boulder County to the Palmer Divide should result in temps barely reaching 50. Snow levels throughout Sunday should remain above 9500 ft MSL. 36 hour snowfall totals above 10,000 ft could be over 6", but a good chunk of that amount depends on the banded precipitation Sunday morning through midday, as well as the convection Sunday afternoon, so totals are likely to be widely varying or short distances. && .LONG TERM /Sunday night through Saturday/... Issued at 131 PM MDT Sat May 11 2024 Sunday evening, northeast Colorado will be under the backside of the exiting upper low/trough system. Weak synoptic ascent builds in with showers and storms tapering off generally from north to south. Monday, an upper level ridge moves in with northwesterly flow aloft. Subsident flow under the ridge will keep it much drier than Sunday. Model cross sections show residual moisture in the flow coupled with marginal instability (MLCAPE < 400 J/kg), mainly across the high country. This will support scattered showers/storms, primarily confined to the higher elevations. A shower or two may stray onto the plains although, with dry lower levels it is more likely to be virga. With the ridge overhead, 700mb temperatures warm, supporting highs in the low-mid 70s across the lower elevations and 40s/50s for most of the high country. There is a general consensus among ensemble guidance that flow aloft transitions to westerly Tues/Weds in response to an approach shortwave trough. While there is good agreement on a trough moving through mid-week, there is still uncertainty in the details. Moisture returns to Colorado ahead of the trough with synoptic ascent and cooler air aloft bringing instability. Expect increased chances for showers/thunderstorm those days. Instability still stays on the marginal side with MLCAPE < 500 J/kg. Tuesday afternoon the "higher" instability will likely be positioned across the far east plains. A few stronger storms can't be ruled out on the east plains as a result. Despite small differences in track, timing with the trough there will be another shot at afternoon showers/storms Wednesday. Expect mild temperatures Tuesday with mid to upper 70s across the lower elevations. Cooler temperatures Wednesday with the trough/front passage. Zonal flow over the region for Thursday with drier conditions expected and temperatures closer to normal. Warm-up Friday into the weekend. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday/... Issued at 1142 AM MDT Sat May 11 2024 Definitely a complicated aviation forecast from this afternoon all the way through Sunday evening. Starting with today, winds should increase out of the south at APA and DEN by mid afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms are possible (>50%) after 21Z but especially between 22 and 01Z this evening at all three terminals. They will be moving southwest to northeast during the late afternoon and evening hours. Lightning is a safe bet with the strongest showers, and wind gusts to 25, maybe 30 kts could occur. We'll need to watch wind shifts with the showers and thunderstorms. Drainage winds are expected after 05Z with SSW winds at APA and DEN, SW at BJC. MVFR CIGs are expected much of Sunday morning. We have low confidence in the evolution of both the CIGs and shower/thunderstorm potential on Sunday. Most models show a very moist low to mid level of the atmosphere, which would support OVC CIGs around 020-030 through at least midday. We have moderate confidence in a band of showers forming late morning, probably between 15-18Z, but the location of that band of showers is highly uncertain. Have decided given the uncertainty, and the fact that lightning is not expected with the band of morning showers, to keep the MVFR CIGs in place and just handle the shower potential with VCSH. Models are hinting at a second round of showers this time with a low lightning potential later Sunday afternoon. This seems like a low chance overall (30%), so have used a PROB30 group to handle that. Northeast winds 10-15 KT gusting to 25 kts should be the norm in the absence of afternoon thunderstorms. VFR could return by midday but without confidence either way, will keep the lower CIGs in place in the TAF for the time being. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Schlatter LONG TERM...Mensch AVIATION...Schlatter ####018007866#### FXUS63 KGRB 112019 AFDGRB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Green Bay WI 319 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024 Forecast discussion for routine afternoon forecast issuance .KEY MESSAGES... - A cold front will bring the potential for strong to isolated severe thunderstorms on Sunday afternoon and evening. The strongest storms could produce large hail and damaging winds. The most favorable time for the strongest storms is from 3 pm to 9 pm. - Conditions hazardous to small craft are expected on the Lake on Sunday afternoon and evening due to gusty south winds and high waves. Boaters on the Bay are urged to exercise caution. - Well above normal temps expected on Sunday, then dropping back closer to normal by Tuesday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 318 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024 Short Term...Tonight and Sunday Main forecast concerns are dealing with diminishing showers this afternoon, cloud shower/trends tonight and the storm/severe threat and how warm it will get on Sunday. For tonight...look for the clouds and any lingering light showers/sprinkles across eastern WI to fade as cyclonic flow loosens its grip on eastern WI, a weak shortwave exit and any weak convergence along the bay/lake breeze weakens as the 150-200 J/kg SBCAPE decreases late this afternoon and evening. Some pea sized hail will be possible in the stronger activity. Mid-clouds will increase from west to east during the evening and overnight hours as a LLJ and WAA push in, which looks to limit our view of the Northern Lights, but some pockets of clearing are expected. Some showers and sprinkles will be possible overnight as the WAA/LLJ combine with a weak shortwave, with the best chances over northern WI. Some very weak instability (MUCAPE under 300 J/kg) arrives overnight across northern WI, so a few rumbles of thunder are possible. Lows look to drop mainly into the 40s. For Sunday...morning showers and possibly a stray storm will be possible in the morning hours as the LLJ/WAA weaken and the warm front pushes north. Focus will then turn to the cold front working south into the area in the very late morning and afternoon. Expect strong heating to occur ahead of the front with showers and storms developing by mid-late morning over far northern WI then spreading southeast through the afternoon hours. Still some discrepancies with moisture/instability, as differences in how much mixing will occur and how much moisture will advect in. GFS appears to be too high with its dewpoints with low 60s in parts of the forecast area. With the expected airmass and mixing through the day, it will be tough to get mid-50 dewpoints and have leaned toward the model consensus of upper 40s and low 50s. This would allow SBCAPEs to climb to between 800-1300 J/kg, with up to 1000 DCAPE in the afternoon. Impressive lapse rates up to 10 C/km in the low-levels and up to 8 C/km in the mid-levels, along with wet- bulb zero heights under 10,000 ft, will aid in hail development. Shear will be on the low side, but 0-6km bulk shear should be around 30-35 kts. Winds aloft not that impressive, but sounding showing the inverted-V, which will support bringing the stronger winds down to the surface. So many severe weather parameters will be there for at least pulse-like severe storms with wind gusts to 50-60 mph and large hail the main threats. SPC has added Marginal Risk was added for parts of northeast WI to account for the severe weather threat. 925mb climb to between 17-22C, supporting highs upper 70s to mid 80s. The earlier arrival of the front may hold down temps over the far north. Cooler readings are also expected near the immediate shore of Lake Michigan. Long Term...Sunday Night Through Saturday Main period of focus for the extended forecast is Sunday night as thunderstorms will remain possible along a southward sagging cold front. Otherwise, mostly dry and quite conditions expected until the end of the upcoming week. Sunday night...Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing into Sunday night along a cold front that is forecast to drop south across the region. Models point to an environment capable of sustaining a few isolated strong to severe thunderstorms through the evening with MUCAPE around 750-1000 J/kg and surface to 6km bulk shear around 30- 35kt. Instability will rapidly diminish after sunset with the lose of incoming solar radiation. Expect the threat for strong to severe storms to greatly diminish by around 9-10pm Sunday. In terms of impacts DCAPE values of 900-1000 J/kg with inverted V profiles suggest strong thunderstorm outflow wind gusts will be the main hazard. Wet bulb zero heights around 8000 ft also point to the possibility of large hail with the strongest updrafts. Rest of extended precip chances...Confluent flow aloft may support an area of showers from the Fox Valley to the lakeshore Monday afternoon. A rumble or two of thunder may be hear south an Oshkosh to Manitowoc line, but don't expect much in the way of impacts from these showers. High pressure then takes control of the region keeping the middle of the week dry. Chance for showers and storms return toward the end of the week as a short-wave passing north of the region drags a cold front across Wisconsin. There is still considerable differences in timing with this system as the Canadian has the precipitation arriving Thursday morning, while the GFS and ECMWF hold the precipitation back until Thursday night. Regardless instability does not look too impressive with this system currently which keeps the threat for severe weather low at this time. Temperaturs...High temperatures Monday will be a few degrees cooler than Sunday but still in the mid 60s to mi 70s across the region. Tuesday looks like the coolest day of the upcoming week with highs forecast to reach the low to upper 60s, which is near to or just slightly cooler than normal for mid May. Temperatures then trend slightly warmer through the end of the week with highs each day forecast to reach the mid 60s to mid 70s. Highs for lakeshore areas will be about 5 to 10 degrees cooler each day. With clearing skies and light winds will have to watch for low temperatures dropping below freezing early Tuesday and Wednesday mornings, mainly across far northern WI. && .AVIATION...for 18Z TAF Issuance Issued at 1232 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024 VFR flying conditions are expected through the TAF period. A scattered to overcast deck of clouds will continue this afternoon, slowly decreasing as sunset approaches. Then, a mid- deck is expected to spread across most spots this evening into Sunday morning. A few showers and sprinkles will continue this afternoon across eastern WI, with additional activity possible later this evening into Sunday morning, but should not impact aviation. Will use the VCSH to cover the shower/sprinkle chance. Northwest winds will gust to around 20 kts through the afternoon, then subside by early evening. Winds will become light and variable for a time this evening then turn to the south later tonight and remain light. Southwest winds will increase Sunday morning, gusting to around 25 mph by late morning. A period of LLWS is expected across parts of central and north- central WI late tonight as a low-level jet increases to 35 to 40 kts. Have included LLWS for RHI, AUW and CWA where it is most likely, but hold off at GRB/ATW/MTW as it looks more marginal. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION.....Bersch/GK AVIATION.......Bersch ####018008811#### FXUS65 KABQ 112019 AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 219 PM MDT Sat May 11 2024 ...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 130 PM MDT Sat May 11 2024 The combination of an upper level disturbance and a backdoor cold front will bring a round of showers and storms to central and eastern NM through tonight, some of which may become strong to severe. Another round of showers and storms is forecast Sunday afternoon across north central and northeast NM as the disturbance moves east across the area. A warming and drying trend is forecast early week, but chances for showers and storms will ramp up again Wednesday and Thursday as another disturbance moves east across the region. A renewed warming and drying trend will begin Friday and continue into next weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Sunday night) Issued at 130 PM MDT Sat May 11 2024 The upper low is currently moving east toward the Four Corners per the latest water vapor satellite imagery and is interacting with low level southeast flow behind the backdoor front to provide a favorable shear environment for a round of strong to severe storms this afternoon, despite unfavorable instability. Latest CAMs show a continued northeast progression of storms with expansion of coverage going into the evening hours across northeast NM. Areas along/north of I-40 will be favored later today and this evening for strong to severe storms producing locally heavy downpours, hail and occasional lightning. There is an enhanced threat for flooding on the Hermit's Peak/Calf Canyon burn scar late this afternoon and evening with these storms, especially considering the 0.10-0.40" that fell on the scar overnight through this morning. The upper low will continue east across southern CO and northern NM tonight through Sunday and will bring another round of convection to north central/northeast NM after some daytime heating. However, the shear environment will be minimal, especially compared to today's, so any thunderstorms that develop Sunday will likely be garden-variety. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Friday) Issued at 130 PM MDT Sat May 11 2024 Weak ridging will follow behind the departing upper low on Mon/Tue, bringing a warming/drying trend. Daytime temperatures should be back above normal most areas by Tuesday. Sufficient moisture will linger on Mon/Tue for isolated to scattered daytime heating triggered showers and storms, mainly over the mountains. The combination of an approaching northern stream trough and an approaching weak Pacific low will bring sufficient forcing and a bump in PWATs for an increase precipitation chances Wed/Thu. This setup will likely be wetter for areas along/east of the central mountain chain as the northern stream trough brings a backdoor front to aide in forcing. An upper level ridge will follow the departing troughs on Fri/Sat, bringing a renewed warming/drying trend with temperatures rising back above normal areawide by Saturday. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1010 AM MDT Sat May 11 2024 MVFR conditions will be associated with scattered to numerous showers and storms today across north central and eastern NM. Storms are forecast to move in on the ABQ Metro between 19-23Z. KLVS will likely go down to IFR with higher chances for storms this afternoon/evening. Areas of MVFR conditions in low stratus will redevelop overnight across eastern NM, with lower IFR probabilities. Improvement is forecast Sunday morning between 14-16Z. Both KFMN and KGUP are forecast to remain VFR through the TAF period. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 130 PM MDT Sat May 11 2024 Critical fire weather conditions are not forecast through the next seven days. The combination of an upper level low and backdoor front will bring good chances for wetting storms to northern and eastern NM through tonight. Another round of wetting storms is forecast Sunday across north central and northeast areas as the upper low exits to the east. An upper level ridge will bring hot, dry and unstable conditions Mon/Tue, with low chances for wetting rain over the mountains. An upper level trough will bring back good chances for wetting storms Wed/Thu, followed by a warming and drying trend that will bring back hot, dry and unstable conditions by Saturday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 40 73 41 79 / 10 10 0 5 Dulce........................... 31 65 32 73 / 20 40 10 30 Cuba............................ 35 65 37 73 / 20 20 5 20 Gallup.......................... 33 71 34 77 / 10 10 0 5 El Morro........................ 34 67 38 72 / 5 10 0 20 Grants.......................... 33 70 34 76 / 5 10 0 10 Quemado......................... 36 69 38 74 / 0 10 0 20 Magdalena....................... 42 70 45 74 / 0 10 0 10 Datil........................... 37 67 41 72 / 0 10 0 20 Reserve......................... 33 74 35 79 / 0 5 0 5 Glenwood........................ 46 79 49 83 / 0 5 0 0 Chama........................... 30 58 31 66 / 30 60 30 40 Los Alamos...................... 41 62 44 70 / 50 30 10 30 Pecos........................... 37 62 38 69 / 60 30 10 40 Cerro/Questa.................... 36 56 37 65 / 60 50 20 30 Red River....................... 29 50 30 58 / 70 60 20 40 Angel Fire...................... 28 54 28 60 / 70 50 20 40 Taos............................ 32 61 31 70 / 60 40 20 20 Mora............................ 33 60 35 66 / 70 40 10 40 Espanola........................ 41 68 42 76 / 60 30 10 20 Santa Fe........................ 41 63 43 71 / 50 20 10 30 Santa Fe Airport................ 40 67 41 75 / 40 20 10 20 Albuquerque Foothills........... 47 71 50 78 / 30 10 5 10 Albuquerque Heights............. 46 73 48 79 / 20 10 5 5 Albuquerque Valley.............. 45 75 47 81 / 20 10 5 5 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 46 73 48 79 / 20 10 5 5 Belen........................... 43 77 44 82 / 10 10 0 5 Bernalillo...................... 45 73 47 80 / 30 10 0 10 Bosque Farms.................... 42 76 43 81 / 10 10 5 5 Corrales........................ 45 74 46 80 / 20 10 0 5 Los Lunas....................... 43 76 43 82 / 10 10 0 5 Placitas........................ 45 69 47 76 / 30 20 5 10 Rio Rancho...................... 46 73 47 79 / 20 10 0 5 Socorro......................... 48 80 49 83 / 5 10 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 41 64 44 71 / 30 20 5 20 Tijeras......................... 42 67 44 74 / 30 10 5 20 Edgewood........................ 39 67 41 75 / 30 10 5 20 Moriarty/Estancia............... 36 69 36 76 / 30 10 5 10 Clines Corners.................. 38 64 38 70 / 50 10 5 20 Mountainair..................... 40 68 42 74 / 10 10 0 10 Gran Quivira.................... 40 69 41 75 / 10 10 0 10 Carrizozo....................... 47 74 49 78 / 10 5 0 10 Ruidoso......................... 43 67 45 70 / 20 5 0 20 Capulin......................... 38 60 40 67 / 80 70 20 30 Raton........................... 38 64 39 72 / 70 60 20 20 Springer........................ 38 66 39 72 / 70 40 10 30 Las Vegas....................... 36 64 38 69 / 70 30 10 30 Clayton......................... 46 69 47 74 / 80 60 20 10 Roy............................. 43 67 44 73 / 90 40 10 30 Conchas......................... 50 75 47 79 / 80 20 5 10 Santa Rosa...................... 47 72 45 76 / 70 10 5 10 Tucumcari....................... 50 77 46 80 / 70 20 5 10 Clovis.......................... 53 79 50 79 / 60 20 5 0 Portales........................ 53 80 49 81 / 60 10 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 52 78 47 80 / 50 10 0 0 Roswell......................... 56 86 54 86 / 20 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 46 78 48 79 / 20 0 0 10 Elk............................. 45 75 47 76 / 20 5 0 10 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...11 LONG TERM....11 AVIATION...11