####018004609#### FXUS63 KEAX 141110 AFDEAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 610 AM CDT Thu May 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * An active weather pattern will setup later Thursday and continue through Monday. - A few showers and non-severe storms continue to look possible this morning. - A very unstable airmass in place Friday may result in potential afternoon/ evening severe storms. Otherwise, chances increase overnight as a convective system may move through the area. Large hail and damaging winds are possible for the afternoon/evening activity. Threat becomes more damaging winds overnight. - Warm and humid conditions through the weekend will keep the potential for afternoon and/or overnight storms going Saturday and Sunday. - More widespread severe weather looks possible Monday as a cold front moves through a very unstable airmass. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 207 AM CDT Thu May 14 2026 This morning, from a few hours before sunrise, through 15-16Z, an area of isentropic ascent will move through the area. This lift is noted from about 305K through 320K and may lead to isolated showers and a few thunderstorms. These will be elevated in nature with instability lifted from 7500-10000 ft. As such, there is a fairly deep layer of dry air for any precipitation to make it through. Have kept the slight chance PoPs for this time frame given the high-based instability and deep, dry sub-cloud layer. Late this evening and overnight, there remains a decent chance that convection that initially develops to our west will move into northern MO as a potentially strong MCS with potential for damaging winds. Friday, there is a conditional risk for severe storms during the afternoon and evening, with better chances for storms during the late evening and overnight. For the afternoon, strong instability will develop as mid 60 dewpoints advect northward into the area. It's possible that a few areas reach their convective temperature and we see storms develop within this strongly unstable airmass. Storms may also develop on possible inverted surface trough extending northeastward from a surface low in western Oklahoma. Regardless, if storms are able to develop during the afternoon, they are likely to become severe with large/very large hail possible and damaging winds. What seems more likely to happen is that storms develop to our west along and east of the boundary and ahead of a subtle mid-level shortwave trough tracking through KS. These then congeal and move into eastern KS and west-central and northern MO as a potentially severe convective system with a damaging wind potential. For Saturday and Sunday, continued warm and humid conditions will continue to lead a very unstable airmass over the area. The inverted surface trough still looks to be present across the forecast area, which would act as a a forcing mechanism for thunderstorm development. But we're also getting to a point that more mesoscale, and at this point in time, unresolvable features may force storms as well. So storms may develop during the afternoon given the instability present. Focus then shifts to Monday, when a strong cold front will move through an extremely unstable airmass with 3500-4500 SBCAPE present and favorable deep-layer shear of 40+ kts. Storms seem likely to develop during the afternoon along/just ahead of that cold front and then quickly race to the east as the front swiftly moves through the forecast area. Large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes look possible with this setup. Behind this front, cooler and less humid conditions will prevail from Tuesday through the end of the forecast. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 610 AM CDT Thu May 14 2026 VFR conditions are likely through the forecast. There is a small chance for showers to move through this morning. Have added a Prob30 group to account for this potential. Winds will increase from the south later this morning with gusts of 25-30 kts through the afternoon. Winds diminish after 00Z and gusts decrease. But sustained winds of 10-15 kts are likely through the overnight with occasional stronger gusts. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...CDB SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION...CDB ####018002823#### FXUS64 KOHX 141111 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 611 AM CDT Thu May 14 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 611 AM CDT Thu May 14 2026 - Temperatures will warm into the upper-80s and near 90 this weekend. - Low chance of showers and storms Saturday, but no appreciable rain is expected until at least the middle of next week. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Friday Night) Issued at 1028 PM CDT Wed May 13 2026 A cold front has moved through Middle TN, leaving the area cooler and still dry. With hardly a cloud in the sky tonight, temperatures will drop into the mid-40s to low-50s. A beautiful day is in store Thursday with temperatures a bit cooler in the wake of the front. Highs will only be in the mid-60s along the Plateau and into the low and mid-70s elsewhere. Temperatures will stay cool through Friday morning with lows still mainly in the 40s. But then temperatures will begin their rebound on Friday. Surface winds will turn southerly again, and highs on Friday will warm into the low and mid- 80s west of the Plateau. Still, conditions remain dry. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through next Thursday) Issued at 1028 PM CDT Wed May 13 2026 Temperatures continue their upward trend through the weekend, and it's even possible that Nashville hits 90 degrees for the first time this year with the NBM giving about a 70% chance of reaching that mark, particularly on Sunday. There is a weak disturbance that brings a low chance for a shower or thunderstorm Saturday, mainly for areas north of I-40. As far as the next appreciable chance of rain though, that looks to come during the middle of next week as a large trough approaches from the west. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 611 AM CDT Thu May 14 2026 A quiet TAF period ahead for Middle Tennessee, with winds out of the north around 5-10 knots through the day today, decreasing to light and variable after 0z Friday under clear skies. Winds will pick up out of the SE around 12z with clear skies. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 73 48 82 62 / 0 0 0 20 Clarksville 73 47 82 65 / 0 0 10 20 Crossville 66 41 75 53 / 0 0 0 0 Columbia 74 45 81 61 / 0 0 0 10 Cookeville 67 43 77 56 / 0 0 0 10 Jamestown 66 40 77 54 / 0 0 0 10 Lawrenceburg 72 45 79 60 / 0 0 0 0 Murfreesboro 73 45 81 60 / 0 0 0 10 Waverly 74 49 83 66 / 0 0 0 20 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Clements LONG TERM....Clements AVIATION.....Holley ####018004816#### FXUS64 KBRO 141112 AAB AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 612 AM CDT Thu May 14 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 611 AM CDT Thu May 14 2026 Key Messages: * Moistening relative humidity levels increase Minor Heat Risks (Level 1/4) to a Moderate (Level 2/4) Heat Risk by Saturday afternoon. * A Major Heat Risk (Level 3/4) is possible early next week along/east of I-69 E. * The potential for unsettled weather may increase chances of rain to as much as a low to medium (20-40%) chance later this weekend and into next week. * A low risk of rip currents continues through Thursday afternoon, likely to become a moderate risk by this weekend as southeasterly winds enhance. * Breezy to gusty winds are expected to lead to Small Craft Exercise Caution headlines beginning Thursday afternoon. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1025 PM CDT Wed May 13 2026 High pressure aloft slowly shifts east across Mexico and to the western Gulf through this week, maintaining mostly sunny skies and dry conditions across Deep South Texas into this weekend. Meanwhile, a mid/upper level trough remains parked over the southwestern US and northwestern Mexico, creating a persistent area of low pressure over the Plains and the Sierra Madre. Pressure falls interacting with a surface high over the Gulf will result in breezy southeasterly winds, likely gusting up to 20-30+ mph each afternoon, highest along/east of US-281. Later this weekend, troughing begins to take over aloft, potentially sparking daily rounds of convection over the Sierra Madre in the afternoon or evening, bringing as much as a low to medium (20-40%) chance of showers and thunderstorms each night along/west of US-281, beginning on Sunday. Enhanced forcing and possible shortwaves aloft may help to expand chances of rain across the region by the middle of next week, though also a 20-40% chance at this time. While temperatures are currently anticipated to remain near normal, rising to the low/mid 90s further east and mid/upper 90s further west, PWAT values hike and peak over the weekend/next week as a surface high pressure shifting towards the southeastern US and strengthening low pressure systems over the Plains transport deeper, more tropical, Gulf moisture northwestward into our region. So, factoring in relative humidity, maximum afternoon apparent temperatures are likely to gradually rise over the weekend from 95-100 F on Friday to 105-110 F by Sunday, even warming by a few degrees through the early parts of next week. At this time, we expect a Minor Heat Risk to elevate to a Moderate Heat Risk by Saturday as well as a Major Heat Risk developing along/east of I-69 E by Monday into Tuesday. Special Weather Statements and/or Heat Advisories are possible, especially early next week. Increased cloud coverage could help to alleviate some of the heat as next week progresses. Overnight conditions gradually become warmer, muggier and breezier, warming from the 60s/70s tonight and Thursday night to as warm as the 70s/80s by Saturday night, which is near 5-10 degrees above average. A low risk of rip currents prevails through Thursday afternoon though is likely to become a medium risk by the weekend after as southeasterly winds enhance. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 611 AM CDT Thu May 14 2026 VFR conditions are expected to generally prevail through the TAF period with some patchy fog, mainly near HRL, potentially reducing visibility over the next hour or two. Expect a southeasterly breeze this afternoon. && .MARINE... Issued at 1025 PM CDT Wed May 13 2026 Small Craft Exercise Caution headlines are likely to return Thursday afternoon as a tightening pressure gradient strengthens southeasterly winds to mostly moderate to fresh, strong at times while slight (1-2 ft) seas build to moderate (3-6 ft, occasionally higher). There is a low to medium (20-40%) chance of showers and thunderstorms next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 90 74 90 76 / 0 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 92 70 92 72 / 0 0 0 0 MCALLEN 95 72 94 75 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 94 70 95 73 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 83 77 83 78 / 0 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 89 74 89 76 / 0 0 0 0 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...65-Irish LONG TERM....65-Irish AVIATION...56-Hallman ####018004121#### FXUS64 KHGX 141112 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 612 AM CDT Thu May 14 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry and warm conditions will persist with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s into the weekend. Today is expected to be the hottest day of the week. - Patchy fog late tonight through early Thursday morning. - Persistent southeasterly flow will lead to a steady climb in humidity. Best rain and storm chances arrive early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1049 PM CDT Wed May 13 2026 Forecast hasn't changed much between model runes. Morning lows for today should be warmer, only falling into the 60s/lower 70s due to steady onshore flow. Patchy fog will still be possible during the early morning hours, especially in areas south of I-10 & west of I- 45. The mid/upper level ridge axis should slide over SE Texas today. High temperatures this afternoon should still be in the 80s with isolated lower 90s. This is currently anticipated to be the warmest period of the forecast, as the ridge aloft is expected to weaken from several disturbances pushing in from the west. By Friday the upper level ridge will have pushed off to the east with midlevel heights falling over SE Texas. As heights decrease, so will subsidence. Temperatures are expected to be in the 80s, but should drop 4-6 degrees by Saturday. Meanwhile, onshore flow will remain uninterrupted, thus moisture will continue to increase. This should result in low temperatures climbing into the 70s area-wide during the weekend. Vorticity impulses are anticipated to push over the region throughout this time frame, though the environment remains slightly capped, thus PoPs remain low. On Monday, a mid/upper level trough will push into the Great Basin with a shortwave trough over Baja California. These features are progged to send ample shortwave energy to SE Texas, providing plenty of lift in addition to strengthening onshore flow. PWs could climb to around 1.6-2.0" early next week. This pattern looks particularly favorable for rainfall, so we should see a fair amount of showers/thunderstorms early in the week. The aforementioned upper level trough is anticipated to fill northeast into Tuesday, with it's associated cold front likely stalling out before reaching SE Texas. Scattered showers and storms will remain a daily possibility through mid week. 03 && .AVIATION... (12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 609 AM CDT Thu May 14 2026 Other than some early morning patchy fog, expect VFR conditions through the rest of the day. SSW winds late this morning will become S to SSE by mid/late afternoon. Houston area could experience a period of SE 10-13 kt winds as the bay breeze pushes inland late afternoon and early evening. Winds are expected to decrease again by evening and overnight. && .MARINE... Issued at 1049 PM CDT Wed May 13 2026 Expect some land breeze driven winds early today, shifting onshore this afternoon, then increasing tonight through Friday. Moderate onshore winds of 15-20 knots with seas of 3-6 feet are anticipated throughout the weekend, likely prompting caution flags at least. Water levels may rise above 3.0ft MLLW with high tide on Saturday, then 3.5 ft MLLW at high tide on Sunday. This will also prompt a higher risk of rip currents across Gulf facing beaches. Scattered showers and storms return to the forecast on Monday of next week. Persistent southeasterly fetch may bring higher seas to 7 ft as well, which could prompt periods of small craft advisories. 03 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 68 90 71 88 / 0 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 71 90 73 87 / 0 0 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 76 83 77 83 / 0 10 0 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...03 AVIATION...Self MARINE...03 ####018006042#### FXUS61 KALY 141113 AFDALY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albany NY 713 AM EDT Thu May 14 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Increased QPF across southern VT and the Berkshires through tonight. Lowered thunder probabilities to slight chance today due to limited instability. High temperatures were lowered from NBM Friday through early next week, but will still be well above normal for mid May. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Unsettled weather continues today through Friday, with periods of showers. While ponding of water is expected on roadways, the potential for impactful heavy rainfall and flooding remains low at this time. 2) A noticeable warmup is expected to begin this weekend with a high likelihood for well above normal temperatures through the middle of next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Bands of showers will continue to move NE across the area into early this morning along an occluded front. The main area of showers should then slow its eastward progress as the front stalls across western New England later this morning. Showers will then pivot back to the NW and expand this afternoon as the core of the upper low becomes centered over central NY/NE PA and upper diffluence increases. Model guidance has come into better agreement focusing the steadiest rainfall, with occasional embedded heavier rain elements for areas north/east of Albany. Noting the latest HREF indicating a swath of 1-2" across S. VT into the N. Berkshires this afternoon/evening along a developing inverted surface trough extending inland from the S. New England coast. Rainfall rates do look heavier than previously forecast, with 50% probs for > 1" in 3 hrs late this afternoon. Still, the hydro situation looks manageable, although there will be some river rises especially along the Hoosic and Walloomsac where the latest HEFS is showing a 10-30% of minor flooding which is still low. Ponding of water on roads/low lying areas is likely. The steady bands of showers will pivot north of the area later this evening, although additional periods of lighter showers will persist with the upper low overhead tonight. It will be another cool/damp day with highs only in the 50s to lower 60s. Also lowered chances of thunder this afternoon and evening to only slight chance given limited elevated instability. While the core of the upper low will track south/east of our area by Fri, we will still be under the influence of the upper trough. So it will likely remain mostly cloudy with scattered to numerous showers rotating around the periphery of the upper low. Like the past several days it will remain much cooler than normal with clouds/showers around. KEY MESSAGE 2... The upper low/trough will finally push well east of our area by Sat, with a more zonal flow aloft and height rises developing. So temperatures will quickly flip to above normal levels (mainly 70s) Sat. A weak cool front moves across the area Sat night into Sun, but with no discernible cooling behind the front. Went below NBM by a few degrees for highs, but still looking at upper 70s to perhaps some lower 80s south of Albany Sun P.M. More substantial upper ridging is then expected Mon/Tue, which will result in temperatures to warm to well above normal levels. 850 mb temperature anomalies of +1 to +3 are still forecast from the NAEFS. NBM highs did look too warm based on comparison with other sources of guidance, so they were lowered in collab with WPC. Still, highs could reach the lower 80s in valleys from I-90 south Mon and mid to upper 80s in most lower elevation areas on Tue. Will have to watch for some possible convection on Tue, as pre-frontal trough approaches from the west. The upstream (real) cold front may not move through until Wed-Thu time frame, so while Tue looks to be the warmest day, temperatures will likely still be well above normal on Wed. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Through 12z/Friday...As the occluded front lingers over the region, periods of showers will continue to move out to the northeast this morning. Mainly MVFR conditions are expected across the terminals with some brief periods of IFR if more moderate showers occur after about 16z especially at KPSF. This is shown in a TEMPO. Rain showers will then transition to periods of steady light to moderate rain this afternoon keeping MVFR conditions across the region through the evening. A few bursts of heavy rain could occur late afternoon lowering cigs under 1,000 ft AGL resulting in LIFR flight conditions. The rain should gradually taper off to a drizzle just after sunset tonight around 20z. KPOU will return first to VFR around 20z followed by KPSF around 01z. Model guidance has temperatures and dewpoints within just a few degrees and with all the soaking rain KGFL and KALB could see some patchy fog again tonight into Friday morning which could keep flight conditions MVFR/IFR through the remainder of the TAF period. Southeast winds 5-10 kt will remain light 5 kt or less this morning. Winds shift mid morning ranging form northwest to northeast with sustained speeds 5-10 kt through the afternoon. Winds then decrease under 5 kt by evening. Outlook... Thursday Night: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA. Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...07 AVIATION...53 ####018004554#### FXUS62 KMHX 141114 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 714 AM EDT Thu May 14 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Issued SCA for the central nearshore waters tonight. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) A cold front will cross the forecast area this morning, which will bring the next wave of isolated showers and thunderstorms. 2) Warming and mostly dry this weekend into early next week. There is a low end potential for record high temps this weekend into early next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Latest analysis shows low pressure offshore, with cold front pushing into the Piedmont. Low will continue to push NE today, while the cold front pushes eastward and through the area later this morning. Scattered showers and iso thunderstorms continue along the Gulf Stream early this morning. As front continues to progress eastward this morning iso/sct showers may develop inland along and ahead of it. Isolated to sct showers, potentially tstms, threat will continue this afternoon, mainly for areas along and east of Hwy 17. Though dry air aloft behind the front should keep precip chances minimal. QPF values themselves generally remain a tenth of an inch or less across just about all of ENC meaning appreciable rainfall amounts would be far an few in between. Areas of patchy dense fog will be possible early this morning. Temps a few degrees cooler today, with highs in the low to mid 70s for the beaches and low/upper 70s inland. KEY MESSAGE 2...High pressure transits across the Eastern Seaboard and sets up offshore over the weekend and early next week. This will allow for S'rly flow to set up and for increasing low level thicknesses to overspread the CWA. As a result, a warming and drying trend is forecast into early next week. MaxTs back to the mid 80s Sat, upper 80s to low 90s inland Sun into mid next week. While we will likely remain below record high temps this weekend and into early next week we will be close. These temps are forecast to bring Minor to Moderate Heat Risks. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Pre-frontal trough is now pushing through all terminals, which has acted to quickly scour out much of the low stratus and fog that plagued coastal terminals overnight. Satellite shows a small patch hanging on around the KNCA/KOAJ area and portions of the Albemarle Peninsula, but this should fully lift to VFR shortly after 12z. Gusty northwest winds around 15 kt or so expected during the day Thursday with VFR conditions expected to prevail from 12z onward. Mainly clear and calm night expected to follow, although we will continue to watch for some renewed, albeit more spotty, fog/stratus potential east of a OCW-EWN-NJM line after 06z Fri. Outlook (Thursday night through Sunday): We quickly transition back to a summer- like regime by the end of the week, and moving into the weekend. This means a daily seabreeze, however Bermuda high pressure will be quite strong, and thus any chance of showers or storms is very low. && .MARINE... Latest obs show light and variable winds, mostly 10 kt or less with seas 2-5 ft. Low pressure offshore will continue to push NE today, while cold front to the west pushes through the waters later this morning. Winds become N-NW 10-20 kt behind the front. Moderate N-NW winds 10-15 kt continue overnight. Issued SCA for the central nearshore waters with seas likely building to 4-6 ft early this evening and the first part of tonight. Scattered showers and iso thunderstorms continue over the Gulf Stream early this morning. Convective chances will grad wane through the morning, becoming more isolated late morning and afternoon. Outlook (Friday through Monday): High pressure sets up offshore, allowing for improving winds and seas, along with a mostly dry and warming forecast into the weekend. Winds grad becoming S-SW Fri night into Sat. Typical summertime pattern then returns with light to moderate SSW winds in the mornings, increasing to 10-20 kt in the afternoon and evening with stronger thermal gradient and sea/sound breezes. Seas generally remaining 2-4 ft. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 2 AM EDT Friday for AMZ152-154. && $$ DISCUSSION...CQD AVIATION...MS MARINE...CQD