####018004012#### FXUS65 KPUB 130540 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 1040 PM MST Fri Dec 12 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Temperatures warming up for tomorrow. - Spotty critical fire conditions possible tomorrow, with better chance of critical fire weather conditions Wednesday. - Chances of light snow showers possibly returning to the central mountains into the middle of next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 156 PM MST Fri Dec 12 2025 Rest of Today through Tomorrow... Dry weather is expected through tomorrow. High temperatures mainly in the M60s to L60s over the plains today will be replaced with M/U60s tomorrow as downslope flow increases somewhat, especially along the I-25 corridor region in the early part of the day, with Min RH values falling into the L10s to single digits across the I-25 corridor region. Although winds are generally expected to remain below critical fire weather tomorrow, there will be some gap flow winds at or near critical values, especially earlier in the day. By late tomorrow morning into the afternoon. another backdoor cool front will push across the region, with surface wind flow becoming upslope by late in the day. Td values will begin to increase by later in the afternoon. \/Hodanish. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 212 AM MST Fri Dec 12 2025 Saturday Night and Sunday... We cool back down from Saturday into Sunday somewhat, especially for overnight lows. Most areas will be closer to normal, with temperatures dipping into the teens for mountain valleys and teens to 20s for the plains. Our highs on Sunday will also be cooler than Saturday, though still several degrees warmer than normal. The San Luis Valley looks to warm into the mid and upper 40s, with 50s and low 60s spreading across the plains. Sunday will be very mild, with dry but not windy conditions, and mostly sunny skies. Overall, a very nice weekend unless you are craving wintry weather. Monday Onwards... Still no mention of winter through this section of the forecast either. A weak trough looks to push in from the four corners region on Monday, dipping down into Texas by Tuesday, but this system is not forecast to bring much in the way of moisture. We could potentially see some cloud cover and a slight dip in temperatures as its passing, but that may be the only noticeable change in weather for us. After it passes, zonal flow sets up for the second half of the work week. Increasing westerly flow aloft will lead to another bout of above normal temperatures for at least Wednesday through Friday, along with breezy winds over and near the mountains. Fire weather may become a concern on Wednesday with increasing downslope flow and lowering RH values. One other result of prolonged westerly flow would be chances for light snow across west facing slopes of the central mountains, though without any major forcing or moisture coming in, accumulations would be negligible. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1037 PM MST Fri Dec 12 2025 VFR conditions will prevail at COS, PUB and ALS over the next 24 hours, with continued bouts of wave clouds at COS and PUB. Light diurnal wind regimes at COS and PUB overnight, with breezy westerly winds 15G25kt possible after sunrise. Westerly winds diminish and become more east to southeast upslope through the late morning and afternoon, as a dry, front pushes across the plains. With the upslope flow continuing into the evening, there will be a chance of MVFR/IFR stratus at COS and PUB the tail end of the taf period. Winds at ALS will be light and variable throughout the taf period. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...HODANISH LONG TERM...EHR AVIATION...MW ####018006100#### FXUS61 KGYX 130540 AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 1240 AM EST Sat Dec 13 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A coastal storm passes well out to sea tonight into Sunday but may be close enough for a little light snow along the coast and over southern New Hampshire. That will be followed up by another very cold Monday with gusty winds. Expect the wind chills to remain in the teens and single digits. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... Winds continue to ease through the overnight hours as a ridge axis of high pressure builds in from the west. Winds likely dont go completely calm in most spots until near sunrise, if at all. At the same time, clouds begin to overspread from the west, which limits the radiational cooling effects through daybreak. During the daytime today, an elongated shortwave pivots through northern New England around a more broad trough. This brings just enough instability and moisture to bring some intermittent snow showers during the late morning and afternoon hours. A little bit more moisture feeds into the MidCoast off the ocean, so a steadier burst of light snow may bring up to about a half inch here. Other than similarly light accumulations across the higher terrain, no accumulation is expected elsewhere. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... An Alberta Clipper slides south of New England tonight and tomorrow, and begins to develop into a strong ocean storm as it moves out to sea. Clouds from this developing system keeps temps warmer tonight, with lows mainly in the teens to low 20s. Along the coast, just enough moisture may extend from the western edge of the developing system to bring some periods of light snow along the coastal plain late tonight and tomorrow. Accumulations would remain very light, with little more than a coating expected. There is also a decent chance that this moisture remains entirely offshore, so we'll have to monitor just how far west the moisture actually extends as the system is developing. As the system continues to move out to sea and strengthen, an increasing northerly wind develops for the afternoon and evening hours tomorrow. The next shot of cold air begins to move in on this northerly wind tomorrow, with highs topping out in the 20s to near 30. Temps steadily fall during the afternoon hours as the CAA increases. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... The next shot of arctic air pushes in overnight Sunday, leading to frigid temperatures Monday morning and blustery conditions through the day. Lows are forecast to mainly range from around zero across portions of the north, to the upper single digits and lower teens south. Strengthening westerly winds will lead to widespread below zero wind chills Monday morning with some double digit readings below zero across the north. Some low probability snow chances may hang around into Monday morning near the coast and through the day across the mountains in the upslope regime. It should stay cold and windy through the day on Monday with highs only rising into the upper single digits across portions of the north, to the lower 20s south. With winds remaining gusty through the day, wind chill values will likely remain below zero north and only rise into the single digits above most elsewhere. Tuesday morning lows will be very similar to Monday but with less wind. The warmup then begins in earnest on Tuesday afternoon as highs rise into upper teens and lower 20s north, to the upper 20s and lower 30s south. By Thursday, the NBM has forecast highs ranging from the low to mid 30 north, to the low to mid 40s south. There are also some signals in the long term ensembles that these warmer temperatures could extend into Friday and the weekend. Regarding precipitation chances, a couple of weak shortwave troughs will approach on Monday night and again Wednesday night. Low chances of light snow are possible Monday night with low chances of light rain or snow mid-week. A stronger system with more widespread chances of precipitation looks possible to end the work week but details remain unclear this far out. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Short Term...MVFR ceilings linger at HIE through at least tonight. Light snow showers are possible at all terminals late this morning and afternoon, but would likely only bring brief MVFR restrictions. Light snow and MVFR conditions are possible again across coastal terminals late tonight and Sunday morning. Long Term...A few lingering snow showers could lead to some MVFR conditions for a few sites Sunday night into Monday morning. Otherwise, expect VFR conditions through Monday aside from upslope snow showers around HIE. Another couple of weak systems may bring light precipitation to parts of the region Monday night and again on Wednesday, but widespread restrictions look unlikely. && .MARINE... Short Term...SCA conditions ease through daybreak. Another period of SCA conditions is likely this afternoon and tonight across the outer waters in southwesterly flow. A developing ocean storm tracks south of the Gulf of Maine tomorrow, with northerly winds increasing to SCA levels by tomorrow afternoon. Long Term...SCA conditions are likely late Sunday through Monday. Northwest winds increase as the low deepens over the Canadian Maritimes and there may also be a period of gales. Conditions improve Tuesday before a cold front approaches and crosses mid week, likely bring at least SCA conditions and possibly gales. Another frontal system is then possible late in the week. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Saturday for ANZ150-152- 154. && $$ NEAR TERM...Clair SHORT TERM...Clair LONG TERM...Hargrove ####018007566#### FXUS62 KRAH 130540 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 1240 AM EST Sat Dec 13 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Weak southwest flow take over today across central NC. An Arctic cold front will approach from the northwest tonight and move through the area Sunday. Arctic high pressure will then build over the region Monday before southwest flow returns for Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/... As of 1240 AM Saturday... Quiet weather is expected overall today. A stalled frontal boundary over the region will lift north as a warm front this afternoon. Southwest winds will take over between 5 and 10 mph. Expect a good amount of sunshine with just some mid/high clouds streaming overhead at times. Highs will be a few degrees above seasonal normals in the mid 50s NW to approaching 60 in the Sandhills and Coastal Plain. Tonight, an Arctic cold front will approach from the northwest. The front is likely to move through our Piedmont counties by early Sun morning and the Coastal Plain a little after sunrise. Temperatures will hover in the 40s most of the night, gradually falling into the 30s in the NW and low 40s in the SE by Sun morning. Ahead of the front, we will see increasing clouds and a chance of rain, mainly along/east of US-1, tied to the right entrance region of an upper- level jet streak. CAM solutions and ptype nomograms suggest mainly rain as the dominant ptype, but a few snowflakes could mix in over the Triad as colder air filters in. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 1240 AM Saturday... * Very cold wind chills in the single digits Sun night to early Mon with a combination of lows in the teens and gusts of 30 to 40 mph Sun evening. A Cold Weather Advisory will likely be needed later today. The Arctic cold front is slated to move through central NC Sunday morning. Cold air advection will commence shortly thereafter, but really take hold late Sunday afternoon and especially Sunday night as a 1040-mb Arctic high over the Mid MS valley settles into the southern Appalachians early Mon. A brief period of rain mixing with or changing to snow will be possible up until the late morning hours for areas mainly along and south/east of Raleigh, from roughly a line from Sanford to Rocky Mount and Roanoke Rapids. As cold air continues to filter through, ptype nomograms suggest rain changing to snow, with even perhaps a few sleet pellets mixing in. No snow accumulation is expected. However, if any was to occur, a light dusting could be possible over the far northern Coastal Plain, such as Halifax or Edgecombe Counties. The main story thereafter will be the bitter cold temperatures and wind chills. We will likely see highs in the upper 30s NW to near 50 in Clinton. But temperatures will gradually fall into the low 30s NW and low 40s SE by midday. NW winds of 15 to 30 mph will be possible during the day. By Sun evening, temps will crash into the 20s and teens as the CAA maximizes. The pressure gradient also strengthens, such that NW wind gusts will increase into the 30 to 40 mph range. Forecast soundings continue to show this post-frontal deep mixing. We actually may briefly reach Wind Advisory criteria between 4 pm and 10 pm as NAM/GFS soundings show infrequent gusts of 40-45 mph. This could easily blow around unsecured holiday objects. Later shifts will take a closer look at this. Additionally, a Cold Weather Advisory will likely be issued later today or tonight for wind chills in the single digits area-wide into early Mon as lows tumble into the low to mid teens. Those gusty NW winds will taper off slowly after midnight as the pressure gradient relaxes and the Arctic high builds into the area. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 131 PM Friday... * Bitter cold temperatures and wind chills Sunday night through Mon morning behind a strong Arctic cold front * Moderating temperatures with highs possibly in the 60s by Thu Sunday through Monday: After a relatively mild (highs in the lower 50s) and dry Saturday under zonal flow aloft, an anomalous upper trough will eject out of central Canada and dive southeast across the eastern US through Monday evening. Associated cold air will spill down the east coast with some of the coldest air of the season (850 mb temperatures will fall into the 1st to 2nd percentile compared to climatology by Sunday night). At the sfc, models have come into better agreement moving the arctic front into central NC a bit early in the day Sunday. As such, guidance has come in colder for highs on Sunday with highs in the mid to upper 30s across the north, to mid 40s across the south. The CAA will really ramp up Sunday afternoon into early Monday, with lows dropping into the lower to mid teens Sunday night/Monday morning (potentially our coldest lows since 2022). Forecast soundings still indicate good post-frontal mixing potential through ~06Z Monday morning. As such, our forecasted apparent temperatures are still nearing or below Cold Weather Advisory criteria for much of our area. Will monitor trends one more day, but a Cold Weather Advisory will likely be needed at least for our northern areas. The frontal passage should be accompanied with some anomalous moisture and light precipitation (although the GFS is less bullish on precipitation). Depending on the timing of the precipitation, there could be a transition to wintry ptype on the backside of the exiting light precipitation band across the northern Piedmont/Coastal Plain. However, not confident in 1) how much precipitation will occur, and 2) whether it'll catch the cold air or not. Overall though, qpf amounts are minimal Saturday night/Sunday. Highs on Monday will only reach the mid 30s with PWAT dropping to 20 % of normal. Tuesday through Thursday: After another chilly night Monday into Tuesday (lows into the upper teens/low 20s), return sswly flow will develop pushing highs into the upper 40s Tuesday and mid 50s Wednesday. Another short-wave may approach next Wednesday and Thursday which could be our next shot at any precipitation but still lots of uncertainty in this time period. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 1240 AM Saturday... There is high confidence in VFR conditions for the 24-hour TAF period. Weak SSE flow to start the period will become WSW between 5 and 10 kt Sat afternoon and evening. Ahead of an Arctic cold front set to approach early Sun, some marginal LLWS may develop at RDU, FAY, RWI after 06z Sun, as a strong 925-mb jet develops. Right now, we opted to leave this out given low confidence. Outlook: An Arctic cold front will move through Sunday morning, bringing a chance of rain, perhaps briefly mixing with snow at RDU and RWI, GSO, and INT. Some brief MVFR ceilings are possible early Sun at RDU, FAY, and RWI. Otherwise, strong NW winds of 20 to 30 kt will develop Sun afternoon, peaking Sun evening in the 25 to 35 kt range, with infrequent gusts over 40 kt. Quiet VFR weather prevails Mon through Wed. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AK NEAR TERM...AK SHORT TERM...AK LONG TERM...Luchetti AVIATION...AK ####018009880#### FXUS61 KALY 130541 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 1241 AM EST Sat Dec 13 2025 .UPDATE... As of 645 PM EST, snow showers/flurries occurring across the SW Adirondacks, Mohawk Valley and upslope areas of southern VT, with some flurries also extending into the Capital Region. Have adjusted PoPs to reflect current radar trends. && .SYNOPSIS... Lingering lake effect snow showers taper off this evening, followed by some clearing and diminishing winds. Snow showers return tomorrow mainly near and north of I-90 before a clipper disturbance developing off the mid- Atlantic coast grazes areas mainly south of I-90 with a period snow tomorrow night into Sunday. Then, colder and blustery conditions return Sunday into Monday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... Key Messages: - High confidence in below normal temperatures continuing through early next week. - A clipper will bring light snow to areas mainly south of I-90 Saturday into early Sunday morning. There is a 40-50% chance of at least 2" of snow for the central and southern Taconics, Litchfield and Berkshire County, into parts of the mid-Hudson Valley. Discussion: Windy and chilly this afternoon with the ASOS and NYS mesonet observations showing gusts up to 30 to 35mph and with temperatures in the mid 20s to low 30s, it feels more like mid teens to mid-20s. Continued westerly flow have maintained light lake effect snow showers tracking down the Mohawk Valley into parts of the Capital District today but with inversion heights only around 800hPa, snow shower intensity has remained light. As we approach sunset, shortwave ridging builds into the Northeast allowing winds to relax and helping to improve the "feel-like" temperatures. The incoming ridge will also send the lake effect snow showers northward into the western Adirondacks and allow them to weaken. Overall, only expecting coatings to 1 inch through tonight and with partial clearing tonight, expecting chilly overnight lows dropping into the teens. Tomorrow starts off dry but then as the ridge axis shifts to our east, a period of warm air and moisture advection ensues. While skies will trend cloud across the region, guidance continues to suggest the best forcing is positioned mainly north of I-90 where we have widespread chance POPs for scattered snow showers starting 15 - 18 UTC and continuing into the afternoon. The south facing slopes of the southern Adirondacks into the southern Greens have the highest chance for snow showers but given the overall weak forcing/moisture, total snow accumulations is again limited to coating to 1 inch. Otherwise, southerly winds and weak warm air advection will help temperatures rise closer to normal with daytime highs reaching into upper 20 to mid-30s. By Saturday evening, the associated cold front will slides south and eastward through the region with additional areas of snow showers developing along and just ahead of the boundary but again limited moisture and forcing will keep additional snow accumulations light. In the wake of this front, a lake effect band looks to develop off Lake Ontario Saturday night and become directed into northern Herkimer County, mainly north of Route 28. While snowfall rates looks to be 0.5-1" at times, the duration of the lake effect band is short which will keep total snowfall amounts low with the current forecast showing amounts ranging 2 to 4 inches. As the cold front slides into the mid-Atlantic region, a weak shortwave rounds the base of the closed parent low positioned over the Upper Midwest and as the two phase, the closed low quickly amplifies and digs towards the East Coast as it becomes neutrally tilted. Rapidly falling heights in response to the enhanced positive vorticity advection will allow a sfc low to rapidly develop along the cold front. Additional forcing for ascent from the sfc low's favorable positioning in the equatorward entrance region of a strengthening ~140kt jet will help induce cyclogenesis as the low shifts off the NJ coast early Sunday. While this developing coastal low is positioned well to our south, the northern fringe of its precipitation shield looks to graze the mid-Hudson Valley into the central/southern Taconics, western MA and NW CT. Latest probabilistic guidance shows the 25th and 75th percentile spread in QPF amounts in these areas ranging from a few hundredths up to near two tenths of an inch so there remains a moderate amount of uncertainty in exact snowfall amounts. However, there is only a 20 to 40% chance for QPF amounts to exceed 0.25" so there is increasing confidence for reasonable high-end snowfall amounts to be near 3 inches with the current forecast favoring 0.5 to 2.5 inches. There will be a south to north snowfall gradient with snowfall amounts decreasing heading towards the Capital District where there is only a 25% chance for snowfall amounts to exceed 1 inch. The Winter Weather Severity index continue to highlight only "minor" impacts focused in far southern Dutchess and Litchfield County but given the cold ground temperatures and the fact that snow arrives overnight into early Sunday, snow will easily accumulate on any untreated sfc leading to slippery travel. Snowfall quickly ends from northwest to southeast Sunday morning by 12 - 15 UTC with NW CT likely the last to see snow end. Behind the exiting coastal low Sunday morning, winds turn breezy with strong cold air advection quickly ensuing. Daytime temperatures likely will not rise out of the 20s and with wind gusts up to 25mph, it will feel even chillier in the teens. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Key Message: - Below normal temperatures persist through Monday before temperatures gradually trend milder mid to late next week. Discussion: An impressive ~1040hPa high positioned over the Central CONUS builds eastward early next week and with our departing coastal low off shore, the pressure gradient looks to remain tight Sunday night into Monday. With northwest winds directing a much colder Canadian air mass into the Northeast (850hPa isotherms 2 to 3 standard deviations below normal per the NAEFS), confidence remains high in quite cold Sunday night low temperatures. In fact, there is greater than 75% chance for Sunday night temperatures to drop below 15 degrees. With northwest winds remaining a bit elevated, we will keep an eye on wind chill values but as of snow, there is low confidence in needing cold weather advisories. The arctic air mass persists into Monday with less than 20% chance for daytime highs to exceed 25 degrees for much of eastern NY and western New England. Luckily, the wind finally diminishes as shortwave ridging builds overhead. Weak warm air advection returns Monday night into Tuesday as a another clipper passes well to our north and west leading to increasing chances for snow showers but lackluster moisture will keep amounts low. A warming trend finally ensues for the middle and end of the week as a deepening low pressure system passes to our west across Central Canada inducing southwest flow across the eastern CONUS. Latest probabilistic guidance shows greater than 75% chance for temperatures across the region to exceed 40 degrees on Thursday. Chances for precipitation increase heading into Friday as the main potent cold front pushes through and given the mild air mass ahead of it, there is increasing confidence that p-type will be mainly rain, at least to start. However, we will closely monitor thermal profiles and any potential p-type challenges depending on how the inland track low tracks. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Through 06z/Sun...VFR conditions are expected at all sites through the rest of the overnight into the morning hours Saturday with some lingering lake effect clouds around 4-5 kft then increasing high clouds with an approaching disturbance. This disturbance will bring some snow showers between 16-21z/Sat or so, mainly to KGFL/KALB/KPSF where some MVFR cigs and/or vsbys could occur. Brief IFR vsbys are possible as well but confidence is not yet high enough to include in the TAFs at this time. Maintained PROB30 groups with this update. Mixed VFR/MVFR cigs are then expected through the rest of the TAF period with the higher confidence for MVFR cigs at KPOU/KPSF as this disturbance brings a period of snow to these sites after 00z/Sun. If snow becomes steady enough, vsbys could lower to IFR at KPOU/KPSF after 00z/Sun as well. The northern edge of the precipitation could be near KALB, but kept this TAF dry for now. Variable wind at less than 10 kt through the night will become south to southwesterly at 5-10 kt Saturday. A few gusts to 20 kt could develop Saturday, mainly at KALB/KPSF. Wind will then become west to southwesterly after 00z/Sun. Outlook... Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHSN. Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ UPDATE...24 SYNOPSIS...31 SHORT TERM...31 LONG TERM...31 AVIATION...33 ####018004673#### FXUS63 KSGF 130542 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 1142 PM CST Fri Dec 12 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Much colder conditions late Saturday into early Monday. Coldest time period is Saturday night into Sunday with minimum wind chill values of -8F to 5F (coldest over central Missouri). - Dry through most of the period, with a warm-up starting Monday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 125 PM CST Fri Dec 12 2025 A cold front moved south through the area overnight and a slightly cooler air mass has moved into the area today. Highs this afternoon will range from the middle/upper 30s across central Missouri to the upper 40s across far southwestern Missouri. Mostly cloudy skies will remain over the area the rest of today into tonight. Lows will cool into the middle to upper 20s tonight under the cloudless skies. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 125 PM CST Fri Dec 12 2025 Southerly winds will return across the area Saturday morning and a warmer air mass will start to advect back to the north, but another cold front will start to move south into the area Saturday afternoon. Therefore, highs will range from the middle 30s across central Missouri to the middle 50s across southern Missouri Saturday afternoon. Some break in the clouds could occur Saturday morning into the early afternoon hours a head of the cold front across portions of southern Missouri which could allow a few readings in the upper 50s where more sun can occur into the afternoon hours. Clouds will increase along and behind the frontal passage. There could be some drizzle long the front Saturday afternoon and evening, which will be patchy and brief in nature. The much colder air mass will lag a few hours behind the frontal passage along with a drier air mass. Therefore, much of any drizzle potential will occur with temperatures above freezing, but there could be a very brief period where some drizzle could occur mainly across the north where temperatures may drop to or below the freezing mark before the drizzle potential ends as the drier air mass moves in. This will be very brief and low chances (around 5%) across the area. The colder air mass and an area of surface high pressure will move over the area Saturday night into Sunday, allowing lows to drop into the single digits to the middle teens Sunday morning with wind chill values dropping to around 3 to -7. Highs will only warm into the lower to upper 20s on Sunday. Lows Sunday night into Monday morning will drop into the teens. A more zonal upper-level pattern then sets up over the region through the first half of next week. This will allow a warming trend to occur as highs warm into the 40s on Monday and into the upper 50s to the lower 60s by Wednesday. An upper trough will move across the Plains into the Great Lakes region Wednesday night into Friday. The models differ slightly on just how far south the trough digs. Some of the ensemble members keep the trough north of the area, and others bring it further south across the area. The further south solutions would bring some light rain chances (20-30% mainly east of Highway 65) to portions of the area and slightly cooler temperatures (highs in the 40s lows in the upper 20s/lower 30s) Thursday/Friday. The northern track will limit the rain chances as a drier air mass will be in place and the better upper-level support will remain north o the area, and the warmer temperatures will remain in place through late week. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1135 PM CST Fri Dec 12 2025 An inversion with moisture trapped beneath it will continue to result in IFR ceilings at KSGF through this morning, with IFR expanding to KJLN and KBBG over the next few hours. Light fog will also persist at KBBG and KJLN. A strong cold front pushes through on Saturday, possibly resulting in a few hours of light drizzle from late morning through the afternoon. The greatest potential for drizzle will be at KSGF and KJLN, with low potential at KBBG thanks to downsloping northerly winds. Will be further evaluating this risk and possibly amending TAFs in the next couple of hours. VFR conditions are expected this evening into tonight as drier air filters in behind the front. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Wise LONG TERM...Wise AVIATION...Titus ####018015172#### FXUS62 KJAX 130543 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 1243 AM EST Sat Dec 13 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf - Low Wind Chills Sunday Night & Monday Morning. Cold Weather Advisory Conditions [Wind Chills: 15-25F]: Southeast GA, Suwannee Valley & Portions of Inland Northeast FL - Hard Freeze Potential for Inland Southeast GA Early Next Week. Hard Freeze Potential Early on Monday & Tuesday Mornings. Light Freezes for the Suwannee Valley & Portions of Inland Northeast FL - Gale Warnings Possible on Sunday Night & Monday Morning && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... The area will remain mainly under the influence of the western periphery of an Atlantic ridge throughout the day today and into the first part of tonight, keeping the benign and dry pattern persistent through most of the near term period. More mid and high clouds will start to stream across the area today as southwesterly flow aloft off the Gulf increases, especially over northeast Florida. But otherwise a dry and mild day is expected featuring light southwesterly winds only around 5 mph, and high temps in the upper 60s to mid 70s. A slightly milder night will be in store tonight as well thanks to more cloud cover and southwesterly flow, though still in the 40s across much of southeast GA and the Upper Suwannee Valey wilth low to mid 50s elsewhere. Early Morning fog chances Sunday Morning will be a little bit higher with an uptick in surface moisture throughout today and into tonight. Primary focus area would be over inland northeast FL, though some patchy fog is likely over interior southeast GA as well given a frontal boundary starting to approach Sunday Morning. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Troughing aloft digging southeastward from the eastern Great Lakes and Ohio Valley on Sunday morning will pivot eastward across New England on Sunday night. This potent trough will drive an Arctic cold front across southeast GA on Sunday morning and the rest of our area during the early to mid afternoon hours. A narrow ribbon of moisture will pool just ahead of the approaching Arctic cold front late on Saturday night across the Deep South, where PWATs will climb to around 1.25 inches after midnight on Saturday night and early Sunday morning. Strong forcing just ahead of the Arctic cold front and these slightly higher moisture levels will likely allow for a few showers to develop over the Altamaha / Ocmulgee River basins early on Sunday morning, with a few showers possible across the rest of inland southeast GA through around noon. Although an isolated shower cannot be ruled out elsewhere during the frontal passage, dry weather is likely to prevail on Sunday across northeast and north central FL. The frontal passage will likely be accompanied by a band of mid-level cloudiness that will progress southward during the afternoon hours. A cooler and drier air mass will begin to advect into our region on Sunday afternoon, with dewpoints falling below freezing for locations from Waycross northward in southeast GA during the late afternoon hours. Breezy northwesterly winds will overspread our region on Sunday afternoon, and cold air advection will counter increasing sunshine across southeast GA, keeping early afternoon highs in the 60s, with temperatures falling through the 50s during the mid to late afternoon. Highs will climb into the 70s early in the afternoon across northeast and north central FL, with temperatures then falling back through the 60s during the late afternoon. The base of deep troughing over the eastern third of the nation will pivot across our region on Sunday night, with dry northwesterly flow then prevailing locally through Monday night. An Arctic dome of high pressure (around 1045 millibars) will build over the northern Plains on Saturday night, with this surface ridge only slowly weakening as it slides southeastward on Sunday and Sunday night, reaching the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys by early Monday morning. Our local pressure gradient will continue to tighten as this surface ridge wedges down the southeastern seaboard, likely creating Gale Conditions over our local Atlantic waters by the early evening hours. Low level flow will quickly veer to northerly towards sunset and then northeasterly by sunrise on Monday. Strong cold air advection will drive an extremely dry air mass into southeast GA and inland portions of northeast and north central FL, with dewpoints falling into the single digits across inland southeast GA after midnight, with teens extending into the Suwannee Valley and coastal southeast GA and 20s for inland northeast and north central FL. A hard advective freeze is likely across inland southeast GA, where lows will fall to the low and mid 20s, with a light northeasterly breeze dropping wind chill values to mid teens. A light advective freeze will extend to coastal portions of southeast GA, the Suwannee Valley and inland northeast FL, and possibly for portions of coastal northeast FL, where breezy northeasterly winds will drive wind chills down to the upper teens and lower 20s. Cold Weather Advisories and Freeze Watches will likely be issued later today in advance of this Arctic plunge for these locations. Breezy onshore winds will likely keep lows in the 30s to around 40 for inland north central FL and the lower 40s for coastal St. Johns and Flagler Counties, where gusty northeasterly winds will drive wind chill values down to the low and mid 30s by sunrise on Monday. Arctic high pressure will continue to steadily weaken as it builds over the southeastern states on Monday, allowing the local pressure gradient to loosen over southeast GA during the afternoon hours. Despite plenty of sunshine, the Arctic air mass will keep highs in the 40s for locations north of Interstate 10. A tighter local pressure gradient will continue for locations south of I-10, keeping breezy northeasterly winds in place, where highs will generally remain in the low to mid 50s, except upper 50s to around 60 for inland north central FL. Coastal troughing will begin to take shape over our near shore waters adjacent to northeast FL on Monday afternoon, likely driving a deck of marine stratocumulus onshore along the I-95 corridor on Monday evening. Lows on Monday night will likely remain above freezing for locations east of I-95, with low to mid 40s forecast along the northeast FL coast, where a light northerly breeze will prevail overnight. Fair skies and decoupling winds elsewhere will allow for radiational cooling, with another hard freeze likely across inland southeast GA, with a light freeze expected for the Suwannee Valley. Light winds will allow for widespread frost formation, with frosty conditions likely extending into inland portions of north central FL, where lows will fall to the mid and upper 30s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Troughing aloft will exit the U.S. eastern seaboard on Tuesday, with dry northwesterly flow prevailing locally through Tuesday night. Our local pressure gradient will continue to loosen on Tuesday as coastal troughing persists over our local Atlantic waters. Cold air advection will shut off as high pressure weakens along the southeastern seaboard, allowing highs to rebound to the upper 50s across southeast GA to the 60s across northeast and north central FL. One more night of radiational cooling is expected on Tuesday night, but model blends keep lows above freezing across our area. Widespread frost formation is still likely for inland southeast GA, where lows will fall to the low and mid 30s. Lows elsewhere will likely remain in the upper 30s and 40s inland, ranging to around 50 along the northeast FL coast, where marine stratocumulus may continue to move onshore along the I-95 corridor. Temperatures will continue to modify on Wednesday as zonal flow aloft develops and surface ridging shifts offshore of the southeastern seaboard. Onshore low level flow on Wednesday will continue to advect marine stratocumulus onshore from the Atlantic waters across our region, but rising heights aloft will allow highs to climb into the 70s for inland locations south of I-10, while mid to upper 60s prevail elsewhere. Lows on Wednesday and Thursday nights will only fall to the mid and upper 40s for inland southeast GA and northern portions of the Suwannee Valley, with 50s elsewhere. Southwesterly flow aloft will develop on Thursday and Friday downstream of a trough that will be pivoting across the Great Lakes, Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Low and mid level flow will continue to veer, with southerly winds on Thursday morning shifting to south- southwesterly during the afternoon, boosting highs into the 70s, except upper 60s for coastal southeast GA due to the afternoon sea breeze. This front and gradually increasing moisture levels could bring a few showers to inland portions of southeast GA and western portions of the Suwannee Valley by Thursday afternoon and night. Support aloft for the front will wane by Friday, with this boundary potentially stalling across the Interstate 10 corridor. A slightly cooler air mass may filter into southeast GA as winds shift to northwesterly during the morning hours and then quickly veer to northeasterly by the afternoon. Highs will likely remain in the 70s across inland portions of northeast and north central FL. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... VFR is expected to prevail for the majority of the rest of the morning hours. Have opted to keep TEMPO groups for possible shallow FG/BR over inland airfields, though general trend has been downward with this potential from hi-res model guidance. Any FG/BR will dissipate by late morning, with VFR and light winds expected to prevail throughout the afternoon and evening. BR/FG appears more likely Sunday Morning ahead of an approaching front, though any impacts to area terminals are expected to be after the current forecast period. && .MARINE... High pressure ridge hold over area waters through this evening before breaking down tonight ahead of an approaching cold front. The front will cross through the area on Sunday, bringing only very isolated shower chances Sunday. Northwesterly winds will strengthen in the wake of this frontal passage on Sunday and Sunday Night afternoon: Small Craft Advisories are very likely, with Gale Warnings also possible Sunday Night as winds shift to northerly and then northeasterly due to strong high pressure wedging down the southeastern seaboard. High pressure will then gradually weaken over the southeastern states early next week as coastal troughing develops over our local waters. Small Craft Advisories and/or Gale Warnings will likely continue through Monday morning, with onshore winds and seas then gradually subsiding from Monday afternoon through Tuesday. Coastal troughing may generate a few showers early next week, mainly for the offshore waters. High pressure will then shift eastward and off the southeastern seaboard by midweek. Rip Currents: SE GA Low Sunday NE FL Low Sunday && .FIRE WEATHER... ...LOW DISPERSION VALUES TODAY AT ALL COASTAL AND SOME INLAND LOCATIONS... ...PATCHES OF HIGH DISPERSION VALUES ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON... ...ELEVATED DISPERSION VALUES ON SUNDAY NIGHT FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF I-95... Light and variable surface winds this morning for locations south of Waycross will shift to southwesterly this afternoon, with transport speeds increasing to 5-10 mph. Westerly transport winds of 5-10 mph this morning for locations north of Waycross will shift to southwesterly this afternoon, where fair daytime dispersion values are forecast. Light speeds elsewhere will yield poor dispersion values, with pockets of marginally low values at coastal locations and also for the Suwannee Valley and Okefenokee Swamp. Surface and transport winds will shift to west-northwesterly by sunrise on Sunday, with breezy conditions developing across inland southeast Georgia during the morning hours, where a few showers will be possible. Winds will then shift to northwesterly during the afternoon hours, with steadily increasing speeds area-wide creating good daytime dispersion values, with marginally high values possible in the Ocala National Forest as well as inland southeast Georgia. Surface and transport winds will shift to northeasterly after midnight on Sunday night, with strong speeds persisting along the Interstate 95 corridor, where elevated nighttime dispersion values are forecast. A cold and very dry air mass will then settle over our region on Monday, with critically low humidity values expected on Monday afternoon across most of inland southeast Georgia. Breezy northeasterly surface and transport winds on Monday morning will shift to east-northeasterly with diminishing speeds across inland southeast Georgia and northern portions of the Suwannee Valley, precluding Red Flag Conditions. Breezy speeds will continue elsewhere, resulting in fair daytime dispersion values, except for good values at coastal locations and for north central Florida. FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Patchy fog is possible early this morning for portions of the Suwannee Valley and inland southeast Georgia. Areas of locally dense fog will be possible during the predawn and early morning hours on on Sunday across much of our area. Cold Weather Advisories and Freeze Watches will likely be issued later today in advance of a significant cold spell that will arrive on Sunday night, with wind chill values falling to the 15-25 degree range by sunrise on Monday for southeast Georgia, the Suwannee Valley, and portions of inland northeast Florida. A hard freeze is likely during the early morning hours on Tuesday for inland southeast Georgia, with a light freeze likely for the Suwannee Valley and portions of coastal southeast Georgia and inland northeast Florida. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 70 48 63 23 / 0 10 20 0 SSI 68 52 68 31 / 0 0 10 0 JAX 74 49 73 32 / 0 0 0 0 SGJ 73 54 75 43 / 0 0 0 0 GNV 76 51 75 34 / 0 0 0 0 OCF 75 53 75 39 / 0 0 0 0 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ ####018007208#### FXUS63 KDVN 130543 AFDDVN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 1143 PM CST Fri Dec 12 2025 ...Updated for 06z Aviation... .KEY MESSAGES... - Ongoing Winter Weather Advisory for generally 2 to 4 inches has been expanded east and south for late tonight and Saturday. - Very cold/arctic air moving in for the weekend. Biting wind chills well below zero late tonight, and especially Saturday night into Sunday morning where wind chills of -20 to -30 are likely. - Warming trend still on track for mid next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 251 PM CST Fri Dec 12 2025 Upper low currently acrs the Manitoba/Ontario border will look to dig and deepen into the northern GRT LKS through Saturday evening. This process will sweep the first cold front and initial lobe of Canadian high pressure through the area tonight with veering and increasing northwesterly sfc winds, and then the main arctic surge coming Saturday night with in-crashing 1040+ MB arctic high. For this early evening, initial short wave and pre-frontal forcing may wring out flurries or even spotty light freezing drizzle out of any low stratocu deck especially north of I-80. Then a late evening and overnight lull as northwesterly post-frontal northwest sfc winds increase and cold air advect. Then all eyes focus on the now well advertised in-coming clipper in tightening northwest steering flow aloft and northwest-to-southeast oriented LLVL baroclinicity. More top-down saturation to do with initial incoming lift and may delay the snow at ground level start time some, but for now have kept the headline timing the same. But with new precip/snow calculations and neighboring office collaboration, have expanded the winter wx advisory east and south. Snow Amounts: Looking at the fcst soundings and vertical profile ensembles, they still advertise deep saturation by Sat morning, with over 150 MB LLVL saturation in the dendritic layer. Extent of upward omegas, F-gen and adequate RH in the cold profiles still pointing to a proficient snow maker with heavy rates of 1-2 inches an hour for a period of 2-4 hours, making the most of a QPF of 0.10 to 0.25 of an inch of liquid possible, doubling those QPF amounts in snowfall(2 to 5+) inches in the higher snowfall swath. Looks like a bit broader and further north heavier snow axis from the one that occurred last night, with the highest amounts from I-80 south to the Hwy 34 corridor. Or along a Sigourney IA, to Burlington, and south of Monmouth IL line. Most of the snow to fall from 6 AM to noon, with tapering windows on either side. Most snow out of the area by 4 PM Sat. Temperatures: The cold air advection and northern plains/south central Canada source region support low temps well down in the single digits, with even some sub-zero readings possible in the north. The northwest winds will make for Saturday morning wind chills from 10 to near 20 below zero for much of the area and thus an added threat for somebody having car trouble Sat morning for those who need to travel. With the clouds and snow, high temps may struggle to get out of the single digits especially north of I-80. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 251 PM CST Fri Dec 12 2025 Saturday night and Sunday...the brunt of the arctic ridge pummels it's way down acrs the region, with -20C H85 MB temp cold pool glancing the CWA. But with the ongoing stout CAA and snow pack, northwest sfc winds of 15 to 20 MPH into Sunday morning to bring about low temps of -5 in the south, to near -15F in the northwest. Of course the big thing will be the advecting winds themselves of 10- 20 MPH combining with the very cold ambient temps to produce widespread wind chills of 20 below to 30 below zero. Have collaborated with other offices to get the headline out a bit early and thus a cold advisory has been hoisted for Saturday night through midday Sunday. Additional shifts will have to assess the possible need of and upgrade to a warning if need be, especially acrs the northwest third of the DVN CWA. Sunday highs in the low to mid single digits above zero could be a bit optimistic. Temps to crash fast with decreasing winds by Sunday evening nightfall, leading to another sub zero 3 dog night. We may need another cold headline north of I-80 for Monday morning, with wind chills of 20 below or a few degrees colder. Longer range progs and ensembles still show flattening steering flow acrs the mid CONUS into mid next week, and thus a moderating temp regime into mid next week. Snow melt and fog may be a factor through Wednesday, before a progressive stronger low pressure system sweeps through the region with rain chances Wed night into Thu, before a post-system chill down occurs into the end of next week.&& && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1125 PM CST Fri Dec 12 2025 Conditions will continue to improve to VFR at the start of the period in the wake of a cold front. Gusty NW winds of 15-25 kt will diminish to around 10 kt by daybreak, and remain so throughout the rest of the period. Another clipper system will then spread accumulating snow to much of the area on Saturday. Timing of the snow looks to be between 14-15z through 20-21z. DBQ looks to be on the very northern edge of the main accumulating snowfall, and thus was handled with a PROB30 for a potential transitory bout of MVFR conditions in light snow. The accumulating potential increases further south through CID and MLI, and especially at BRL. MVFR to IFR conditions are expected for a several hour period in the snow, with possibly a period of LIFR at BRL where snowfall rates could be around an inch per hour for a few hour period from 15z-19z leading to potential for 4-5 inches. Amounts look to be around 2 inches at CID and around 3 inches at MLI. Sow will be very fluffy with very cold temperatures making for efficient accumulation as pretreatment may struggle with the cold. A return to VFR conditions are expected 20z-01z. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...Cold Weather Advisory from 6 PM Saturday to noon CST Sunday for IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099. Winter Weather Advisory from 6 AM to 3 PM CST Saturday for IAZ063-064-076-077-087-088-098-099. Winter Weather Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM CST Saturday for IAZ065-067-068-078-089. IL...Cold Weather Advisory from 6 PM Saturday to noon CST Sunday for ILZ001-002-007-009-015>018-024>026-034-035. Winter Weather Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM CST Saturday for ILZ015>018-024>026-034-035. MO...Cold Weather Advisory from 6 PM Saturday to noon CST Sunday for MOZ009-010. Winter Weather Advisory from 6 AM to 3 PM CST Saturday for MOZ009-010. && $$ SHORT TERM...12 LONG TERM...12 AVIATION...McClure ####018005229#### FXUS64 KJAN 130543 AAB AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson MS 1143 PM CST Fri Dec 12 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Patchy dense fog is possible Saturday morning in the south. - Colder temperatures return Sunday with morning lows below freezing across the north. - Dangerously cold temperatures are expected Sunday night with widespread wind chills into the 10-20 degree range. && .MESOSCALE UPDATE... Issued at 723 PM CST Fri Dec 12 2025 Updated short-term weather elements through Saturday afternoon with latest guidance. Still expect potential for dense fog development in southern portions of our area tonight, with patchy fog possible elsewhere. Sprinkles remain possible under low cloud deck through the morning, with an increasing chance for light rain by tomorrow evening. /NF/ && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 202 PM CST Fri Dec 12 2025 Through Saturday: Latest surface analysis had a ridge nosing west along the Gulf coast and a dry cold front approaching our northwest most zones. This ridge will hang tough through Saturday and the associated return flow will help increase low level moisture back across our southern zones. The cold front will drop into our northern zones this evening and stall nearly along and north of Interstate 20 Saturday. Thus, the low level moisture increase will be limited to the southern half of our CWA. There will remain very low chances of mainly light showers across the southern half of our area tonight through Saturday. Thanks to the cold front, cooler temperatures and dry weather will reside across our northern zones while warmer than normal temperatures continue across our south. There will be a chance of patchy dense fog late tonight into Saturday morning across our southern zones as well. /22/ Saturday night through Thursday: A potent shortwave dropping down the backside of a closed low that will be swinging across the Great Lakes region, will deepen upper level troughing over our region and help send a very cold and dry airmass toward our CWA. This strong reinforcing cold front will drop into our northern zones shortly after sunset and push south of our southern most zones before sunrise Sunday morning. This cold front will increase rain chances as it moves into our CWA with the greatest chance for rain over the southern half of our CWA. No wintry mix precipitation is anticipated in our CWA Saturday as the precipitation is expected to end well before the subfreezing temperatures move into our northern zones. Morning lows Sunday morning are expected to be at or below freezing along our Highway 82 corridor. Sunday through Monday the center of an arctic airmass will be tracking east southeast across the mid Mississippi valley and to the southern Appalachians. This will result in a gusty north wind across our CWA Sunday that will hold temperatures well below normal. Bolivar and Sunflower counties may not rise above freezing Sunday. Dangerously cold conditions are still expected over the CWA Sunday night. Morning lows Monday are expected to be in the teens across the north to the lower 20s across the south. With the surface high to the northeast the wind will likely remain up through the night resulting in wind chill temperatures over our whole CWA of 10-15 degrees. These cold temperatures pose a threat to people, pets, pipes, and plants. Temperatures Monday will top out in the 40s areawide before bottoming out in the 20s areawide Tuesday morning. Models differ on the details but our flow aloft will become near zonal Tuesday into Wednesday and surface ridging will remain over the Gulf coast states from the east. This will allow for a warming trend to back above normal temperatures by Thursday. Tuesday will be dry but a couple disturbances may bring some rain to portions of our CWA Wednesday and Thursday. /22/ && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1141 PM CST Fri Dec 12 2025 Dense fog and low ceilings are projected through the early morning hours for central and southern portions of the area tonight, with patchy fog elsewhere. Some light drizzle can not be ruled out with the aforementioned conditions through the morning with an increased coverage/intensity possible with daybreak. Conditions should improve rapidly with sunrise (around 14Z). /OAJ/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 71 50 69 36 / 0 0 20 50 Meridian 71 48 67 35 / 0 10 20 70 Vicksburg 73 48 66 33 / 10 0 30 50 Hattiesburg 73 54 73 45 / 10 10 30 70 Natchez 73 53 72 38 / 10 10 30 70 Greenville 66 39 55 27 / 0 0 10 20 Greenwood 67 39 62 28 / 0 0 10 30 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST Saturday for MSZ043-047>066- 072>074. LA...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST Saturday for LAZ015-016- 023>026. AR...None. && $$ 22/22/OAJ