####018009166#### FXUS62 KRAH 272340 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 740 PM EDT Wed Mar 27 2024 .SYNOPSIS... An area of low pressure and attendant front will move slowly east through the SE US through early Thursday. A trailing cold front will then cross the area Thursday afternoon and evening. Dry and warming weather is expected Friday and Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING/... As of 400 PM Wednesday... ...Flood Watch from 8 PM today to 8 PM tomorrow for the NE Piedmont, Sandhills and Coastal Plain... Deep moist southwesterly flow currently persists across central NC, with PW values in the 1 to 1.5 inch range. This is between a broad mid/upper trough over the Central and Eastern US and shortwave ridging just west of Bermuda. Within the trough, a closed mid/upper low currently over Lake Superior will move NE into southern Ontario through tomorrow. At the surface, a low pressure system has occluded near Hudson Bay, dragging a slow-moving cold front to its south that currently extends down to the Appalachians. Meanwhile, an area of low pressure is currently over the central GOM with an inverted trough that extends NE into the Carolinas. This low will move NE along the GA/SC/southern NC coast tonight, before pushing east of the Outer Banks by tomorrow evening. This will push a warm front currently over central SC and extreme SE NC a bit farther north through this evening. As it does so, high-res models show very marginal SBCAPE of less than 500 J/kg potentially moving into the far southern Sandhills and southern Coastal Plain through about 00z. But the best instability will remain to our south, and radar looks very unimpressive at the moment, so not concerned about a threat for severe storms at this time. As for rainfall, still expecting a general 1-4 inches across most of the area, highest over the Coastal Plain. The Triad is forecast to be more in the half inch to an inch range, and there will be a sharp cutoff on the western side, but exactly where that sets up is still uncertain as guidance has been waffling back and forth. The 12z HREF shifted the 2-4 inch axis farther west into central NC to include the NE Piedmont and Sandhills. While rain is fairly light across the area at the moment, as the surface low lifts NE and we get increasing upper divergence from the approaching trough, showers will pick up intensity and become more widespread later this evening into the overnight hours. This will result in a risk for flooding, mainly in urban areas like the Triangle and on some mainstem rivers which are forecast to reach flood stage at some of our eastern gauges. Given all of this, the Flood Watch from this evening into tomorrow evening for the Coastal Plain has been extended farther west to include the NE Piedmont and Sandhills in addition to the Coastal Plain. Thunder will be possible with these showers (especially SE), but convection will remain elevated, so still not expecting any severe threat. Forecast lows are in the mid-40s to mid- 50s. As the surface low pulls away to the east, the area of widespread showers will push to our east as well, clearing the western Piedmont by early morning, the NE Piedmont and Sandhills by late morning, and the Coastal Plain by early afternoon. A few showers could linger a bit beyond that as the potent mid/upper trough swings through, but dry air will be entering the region from the west by this time as high pressure starts to build in. Skies will gradually clear from west to east during the afternoon, but cloud cover should remain for a good part of the day and when combined with strong northerly winds on the backside of the low (gusting up to 20-30 mph), it will be a chilly day. Temperatures will range from lower-50s in the far NE to lower-60s in the far west. This is anywhere from 5-15 degrees below normal. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 325 PM Wednesday... Thursday night: In the wake of the offshore surface low, the passage of the trailing upper trough and a secondary cold front between 00 to 06z Fri will lead to clearing and modest low-level cold dry air advection. There appears to be sufficient mixing in the BL to keep a light breeze of 4-7 kts overnight, which should limit the threat for frost as min temperatures bottom out in the mid to upper 30s. Friday and Friday night: Heights aloft will steadily increase over the region as a broad upper level ridge over the Central US builds eastward. At the surface, a strong pressure gradient between the rapidly deepening low pressure lifting up the New England coast and high pressure building east over the Deep South will result in breezy conditions. Expect frequent NWLY gusts of 20-30 mph, with occasional gusts as high as 30 to 35 mph, highest across northern portions of the piedmont and coastal plain counties. The brisk NW flow will also result in favorable downslope drying/mixing out of dewpoints and low-level warming. Afternoon RH values are expected to fall 25 to 35%, potentially as low as 20-25% across the NW Piedmont. Fuels will likely be wet enough to avoid elevated fire weather conditions. Highs Friday ranging from mid 60s NE to lower 70s south. Lows 40-45. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 300 PM Wednesday... Sat through Sun night: A passing disturbance Sat afternoon will bring a non-zero chance for some light rain near the VA/NC border, but mostly expect an increase in cloud cover since the better DPVA and mid-level WAA remains north of central NC. Otherwise, mid-level height rises will persist through the weekend in response to a closed low digging into the Four Corners Region resulting in mostly dry conditions this weekend with highs rising into the mid/upper 70s to low 80s. Mon through Wed: Weak high pressure will build into the northern Mid- Atlantic late Sun and push a shallow cold front south into VA by early Mon morning. This boundary will likely represent the southern extent of some light rain due to gradual moist isentropic upglide Mon morning. However, the southern extent of the front remains in question with latest model guidance suite keeping the front up in VA with the 850mb front well displaced up into northern VA and MD. This should keep central NC mostly dry through Mon. By Tue, the now positively tilted trough axis will transport increasing PWAT values ahead of the trough within the deep southwesterly flow to around 1 to 1.25 inches over central NC. At the surface, a deepening area of low pressure will migrate from the Great Lakes Region into eastern Ontario with secondary cyclogenesis expected to develop over the northern Mid-Atlantic and drift off the Northeast coast early Wed morning. There is a high degree of timing uncertain but this will result in a cold front marching through central NC sometime between late Tues night and early Wed evening. Ahead of the front, there will be a chance for showers/storms Tues and Wed although the character/severity largely remains in question. Wed will likely have a higher ceiling for severe storms, but will be completely dependent on the timing of the cold frontal passage and degree of instability that can develop out ahead of it. Temperatures will remain unseasonably warm ahead of the cold front with a return of near normal behind the front into midweek. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 740 PM Wednesday... TAF period: High confidence in IFR/LIFR ceilings overnight at each terminal, although conditions are currently MVFR at FAY. Low confidence in the overall coverage of thunderstorms, but continued the VCTS mention for several hours at RDU/FAY/RWI. Think that the thunderstorms near GSO should be over in the next 1-2 hours. Rain should be more patchy at INT, but the other 4 sites should all have a several hour period with rain overnight into Thursday. Low ceilings should drive the flight categories, and the earliest that any site is expected to rise back above IFR would be INT/GSO around sunrise Thursday. As low pressure moves up the coast, wind gusts should develop out of the north during the late morning/early afternoon, and all locations should have at least 20 kt gusts during the afternoon. Outlook: VFR conditions will return from west to east Thursday evening and continue into Monday. Gusty winds of 20-30 kts are expected from the W/NW on Fri and from the SW on Sat. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch from 8 PM EDT this evening through Thursday evening for NCZ007>011-024>028-040>043-075>078-084>086-088-089. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hartfield/KCP NEAR TERM...Danco SHORT TERM...CBL LONG TERM...Swiggett AVIATION...Green/Danco ####018003083#### FXUS63 KGID 272340 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 640 PM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Sprinkles will be possible this evenings for the southwestern portion of the area. - Near to above normal temperatures return to the region Thursday and Friday. - Small chances for precipitation will be possible Friday and Saturday. Better chances (20-50%) will be possible from Sunday evening through Monday evening. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 401 PM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024 Clouds have cleared out over the past several hours, leaving clear skies across the region. Visible satellite imagery shows a wide swath of melting snow extending through south central Nebraska this afternoon. For the rest of today, temperatures will continue to struggle into the upper 30s to low 40s for much of south central Nebraska. North central Kansas will reach the 40s, with a few low 50s not out of the question. This evening, a few sprinkles cannot be entirely ruled out over the western and southwestern portions of the area. Overnight lows will be primarily in the 20s. A few models are pointing to the potential for some fog across portions of the area. Light to slightly southwest winds would be favorable for fog potential; however, it feels like the models might be overcompensating for snowmelt, so have held off on any mention for the moment. A ridge moves over the region Thursday and Friday, with warmer temperatures expected. Temps will be hampered slightly tomorrow afternoon by lingering snowpack in the northern and northwestern portions of the area; however, near to above normal high temperatures will be in place for most areas (mid to upper 50s). Lows will be primarily in the 30s. A weak mid level trough moves across central Nebraska Friday evening, bringing low pops (10-20%) to the area in the evening and overnight hours. Another chance for precipitation will come Saturday evening/Sunday morning, with a better chance Sunday evening through Monday evening. This will be due to split flow over the western CONUS and the northern split bringing a trough through the area. Rain and possibly snow will be possible with this system as it moves through the region. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 634 PM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024 The wind will die down after sunset this evening and then will generally remain light at around 10 kts or less out of the southwest through Thursday morning. We do expect the wind to become more southerly and increase a bit Thursday afternoon, but should still be lighter than 15kts most of the time. Will carry VFR ceilings and visibility for now, but can not completely rule out (10-20%) of MVFR ceilings/visbility within an hour or two either side of sunrise. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Wekesser AVIATION...Wesely ####018005660#### FXUS61 KRLX 272340 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 740 PM EDT Wed Mar 27 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Skies clear across the western part of the area this evening, and should fully clear by tomorrow, lasting through Friday. Windy conditions return Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 111 PM Wednesday... Cold front exits east of the Appalachians this evening, while a surface high pressure builds behind it, filtering drier airmass into the area. Therefore, expected dry weather conditions with clearing spreading from west to east through the day Thursday. Dry air and afternoon mixing could bring relative humidity values into the 20s Thursday afternoon, posing a threat for enhanced fire danger. An enhanced fire danger statement may be needed area-wide. Cooler than normal temperatures expected tonight under fresh northwesterly winds, generally in the mid 30s, ranging into the upper 20s portions of northern Middle Ohio valley and our northeast mountains. Mostly sunny skies will allow for highs on Thursday to reach the mid to upper 50s lowlands, ranging into the lower 40s higher elevations. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 1214 PM Wednesday... As low pressure strengthens off the coast of New England and high pressure expands in the South Friday, winds will turn gusty across the middle Ohio Valley and central Appalachians. The gustiest winds will likely be in the mountains where advisory-level wind gusts will be possible. Skies should be partly to mostly sunny with high pressure expanding from the south. Temperatures will be quite comfortable in the lowlands with highs reaching the middle and upper 60s, but the higher elevations of the mountains will remain cool with highs mostly in the 50s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 1214 PM Wednesday... The overall pattern is looking unsettled from Saturday onward as multiple waves of vorticity stream in from the west and a surface frontal boundary stalls over the middle Ohio Valley. This unsettled pattern is expected to continue into the new work week. This weekend doesn't look like a wash out, but expect scattered showers and a few thunderstorms to develop each afternoon. The best chance of widespread precipitation appears to be late Monday and into Tuesday as an expansive area of low pressure organizes and tracks east. In addition to rain, thunderstorms will also be possible. Stay tuned for more details as we get closer. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 735 PM Wednesday... VFR conditions generally expected through the period, except for some lowering stratocu over the mountains tonight as the NW'ly upslope flow continues across the area. Some models show vsby reductions from possible fog, but it seems like winds should stay up enough for most of the area that it will likely just be low stratus, but that will be something to monitor. EKN and BKW are forecast for MVFR ceilings, but can't entirely rule out IFR potential in the heart of the overnight hours. Lingering clouds should finally clear during the day tomorrow. Winds remain NW'ly for most of the area, lighter overnight, and potentially a bit gusty again tomorrow. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and coverage of MVFR ceilings across EKN, BKW, and possibly CKB may vary from forecast. While guidance does not show any at this time, valley dense fog formation is not entirely out of the question overnight tonight, particularly where the stratocu breaks up and decoupling allows for calming winds. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE THU 03/28/24 UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H M H H M H M M M M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H L M H H AFTER 00Z FRIDAY... No widespread IFR conditions expected at this time. && .FIRE WEATHER... As of 112 PM Wednesday... Building high pressure will bring a mainly dry finish to the work week amid near seasonable temperatures. Relative humidity values lower into the 25-35% range Thursday afternoon, but under generally light surface flow. Friday afternoon will be on the breezy side amid relative humidity values in the 30-40% range. The chance for showers returns this weekend. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FK/ARJ/JMC NEAR TERM...ARJ SHORT TERM...JMC LONG TERM...JMC AVIATION...FK FIRE WEATHER... ####018006701#### FXUS62 KFFC 272342 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 742 PM EDT Wed Mar 27 2024 ...New 00Z Aviation Discussion... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Thursday) Issued at 307 PM EDT Wed Mar 27 2024 As the short term period begins, a stationary front remains stalled over the Mid-Atlantic coast, extending over east-central Georgia and into the central Florida Panhandle region. With the occluded parent low pressure system continuing to move northward into Canada, there is little forcing to advance this frontal boundary out of the forecast area. Meanwhile, a secondary cold front is slowly advancing through north Georgia, but is not anticipated to reach the stationary front this afternoon or evening. The stationary front will serve as a focus for convective activity this afternoon and into the evening. Likely PoPs are forecast in the far southeast corner of the forecast area in the late afternoon and evening as a weak low pressure drifts onshore of Florida and provides additional forcing. In the areas to the east of the stationary front, dewpoints will be in the upper 50s to low 60s at this time. With temperatures also rising into the 70s, SBCAPE values between 500-1000 J/kg will be likely during the peak heating hours, which will support thunderstorm development in the far southeast corner of the forecast area. This instability, combined with mid-level lapse rates between 6.5-7 degrees C and deep layer bulk shear values of up to 50 kts could also allow for isolated storms to become strong to severe, capable of producing hail up to 1" and damaging wind gusts. As the cold front continues its slow march south and east, dewpoints will drop overnight and into Thursday as a dry continental airmass filters into the forecast area. Low temperatures on Thursday morning will be lower than today, and are forecast to be in the low to mid 40s along and north of the I-85 corridor, and in the upper 40s to low 50s to the south. Cloud cover will diminish through the morning, becoming mostly clear during the afternoon hours. Northwest winds will increase during the early morning, becoming breezy with sustained wind speeds between 10 to 15 mph and gusts between 25 to 30 mph. Ridgelines in areas of high terrain across north Georgia could furthermore see wind gusts approaching 35 mph through the daytime Thursday. During the afternoon, highs will range from the mid 60s to low 70s, with the warmest temperatures in central Georgia. Considering the dry northwesterly flow, I elected to run on the lower side of guidance on dewpoints tomorrow. As a result, relative humidity values are anticipated to drop below 25 percent across a large portion of the forecast area in the mid to late afternoon hours. A Fire Danger Statement may be needed in an ensuing forecast update given the minimum RH values forecast to drop below critical thresholds. Also taking the gusty winds into account, some locations could approach Red Flag criteria tomorrow afternoon. However, the need to issue a Red Flag Warning will be contingent upon how much fuels are able to dry out through the remainder of the day into tomorrow. Winds will begin to diminish after sunset tomorrow night into Friday morning. With lighter winds and mostly clear skies, radiational cooling will be enhanced during the overnight hours. Low temperatures on Friday morning are forecast to range from the mid 30s to low 40s. The lowest temperatures are expected to be observed north of I-85, where areas of frost will be possible with temperatures dropping between 32-36 degrees. King && .LONG TERM... (Friday morning through next Tuesday) Issued at 307 PM EDT Wed Mar 27 2024 Highlights: - After a cool start Friday morning, temperatures will gradually warm up into early next week. - Dry conditions are expected through Monday, with rain returning Monday night and Tuesday. After a cool start Friday morning, temperatures will begin a gradual warm-up through early next week as an upper trough departs and a broad upper ridge builds over the area. High temperatures will climb from the upper 60s to lower 70s on Friday to the upper 70s to mid 80s by Monday and Tuesday. Highs in the northern mountains will be cooler, with highs mostly in the lower to mid 70s early next week. Dry weather is expected through Monday evening. An upper trough and associated surface front will approach the area from the NW late Monday and Tuesday, with showers and thunderstorms spreading into the area. The upper pattern suggests that this front may also slow down or stall as it moves across the area. For fire weather, daytime relative humidity values are expected to drop into the lower to mid 20 percent range on Friday across much of the area, bringing fire danger concerns. Sw-W winds of 5 to 10 mph with a few gusts to 15 mph are expected during this period, with slightly higher winds across the NE zones. Humidity values will start to climb on Saturday, but some minimum values may approach 25 percent during the afternoon. Additionally, SW winds are expected to increase, with gusts to 20 to 25 mph possible across much of the area. /SEC && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 635 PM EDT Wed Mar 27 2024 VFR conditions with NW winds expected to continue through the TAF period. Will see mainly high clouds across the area through the period with no precipitation expected. Winds will stay out of the NW in the 8-12kt range over night. Wind speeds increase Thu into the 10-15kt range with gust to 25kt in the afternoon. Wind speeds will diminish to 10kt or less after 00z Fri. //ATL Confidence...00Z Update... Confidence high on all elements. 01 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 50 70 38 71 / 10 10 0 0 Atlanta 47 66 41 70 / 10 10 0 0 Blairsville 40 59 32 66 / 10 0 0 0 Cartersville 42 65 33 71 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 50 71 41 73 / 0 10 0 0 Gainesville 47 66 39 70 / 10 10 0 0 Macon 52 70 42 72 / 20 10 0 0 Rome 42 65 34 71 / 0 0 0 0 Peachtree City 46 67 37 72 / 10 10 0 0 Vidalia 55 69 43 70 / 70 20 0 0 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...King LONG TERM....SEC AVIATION...01 ####018004933#### FXUS64 KLZK 272343 AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 643 PM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Friday) Issued at 221 PM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024 A meandering sfc high pressure center will continue to have the greatest influence on weather conditions in the short-term forecast. Expect into Wednesday evening a persistent forecast of occasional high clouds with winds becoming light and variable. Temperatures given this colder airmass that continues to "stick around" will remain below average overall with respect to both high and low temperatures for late March climatological normals through Thursday morning. Wednesday night into Thursday morning will see the return of cold weather products return as areas of frost are likely to be present across most of the CWA due to the meandering sfc high pressure center in the region, calm to light overnight winds, high RH values, and cloud cover that will be minimal overall allowing for efficient radiational cooling to take place overnight. A few isolated locations may fall to the freezing mark, especially across far northern Arkansas; however, widespread freezing temperatures are not expected, but temperatures beginning early Thursday morning and lasting until an hour or two after sunrise will be in the 33 to 36 degree range which may harm sensitive vegetation so it will be a good idea to protect plants for one more night. No cold weather products are anticipated to be needed Thursday night into Friday morning. Later in the day on Thursday and remaining into Friday will be a warming trend as temperatures will uptick and a return to southerly winds will assist this warming process. High temperatures on Thursday will rebound quickly from the chilly morning lows as an improvement to high temperatures in the mid to upper 60s will be felt on Thursday and that mercury continues to rise into the day on Friday with high temperatures peaking in the low to upper 70s across the CWA. Weather conditions look to remain quiet overall with increasing clouds expected on Friday and increasing southerly winds contributing to the increasing high temperatures each day apparent. The beginning of the weekend and into Saturday and Sunday within the long-term forecast period is sending a strong signal of fair and warm weather across the state for the holiday weekend. && .LONG TERM... (Friday Night through next Wednesday) Issued at 221 PM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024 Largely tranquil weather will prevail thru the weekend thanks to the slow departure of sfc ridging to our SE and persistent ridging in the mid/upper levels. Under the influence of this upper ridge, high temps will warm into the 70s and 80s F by the weekend with lows in the 50s and 60s F expected. Meanwhile, a large upper trough will come ashore and translate thru the Wrn states late weekend into early next week. Ahead of this, a lee cyclone will gradually deepen and elongate with time as a lead vort max ejects into the central Plains by Mon night. The resulting pressure gradient will boost S/SWrly winds across AR, aiding in large-scale moisture transport with dewpoints climbing into the upper 50s and 60s by Sun/Mon. Flow aloft will be robust as jet maxima in the H250 and H500 layers overspread the moistening warm sector. Instability progs, while not overly aggressive, do show modest MLCAPE over much of AR on Mon/Tues with deep-layer shear in excess of 50 kts. Rain and thunder will increase on Mon as a result, and with the parameter space as described above, strong/severe storms will be possible in or near the area. Ongoing model discrepancies preclude defining the areal extent of any severe risk attm, however. A cold front attendant to the aforementioned sfc cyclone will sweep thru sometime Tues with storms ending NW-to-SE as this occurs. Some wrap around moisture will maintain low-end PoP thru Tues evening and a seasonably cool and dry air mass will move in by Wed. Highs then will be in the 60s with lows in the 40s to near 50 degrees. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 640 PM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024 VFR conds wl continue thru the PD. Mid and high lvl clouds wl be streaming acrs the region tngt, with clouds decreasing thereafter. Light winds tngt wl gradually bcm light southerly in most areas by Thu aftn. && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM CDT Thursday for ARZ004>008- 014>017-024-025-031>034-039-042>047-052>056-062-063-066-067-103- 112-113-121>123-130-137-138-140-141-203-212-213-221>223-230-237- 238-240-241-313-340-341. && $$ SHORT TERM...74 LONG TERM....69 AVIATION...44