####018003489#### FXUS64 KFWD 090600 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 1200 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Mild temperatures will prevail this week with a slight warming trend by the end of the week. - The next strong cold front is expected to arrive over the upcoming weekend which will send temperatures back below normal. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Wednesday) Issued at 1125 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025 It'll be warmer today across the region with highs in the low to mid 60s across East TX and mid/upper 60s elsewhere. An embedded clipper system will trek through the Northern Plains Tuesday with lee troughing prevailing to the south. Slightly breezier winds will take place this afternoon as a result of the tightened pressure gradient, with occasional gusts around 20 mph. As this system quickly shunts east, a cold front will be sent southward into North Texas Wednesday morning and through the southernmost portions of Central Texas by early/mid afternoon. The cold front will shift winds to the N/NW, but will mostly be unimpactful to the region. Highs will top out in the low to mid 60s for most locations, with the exception of the far southern areas climbing into the upper 60s. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through next Monday) Issued at 1125 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025 Light winds and clear skies Wednesday night will allow for temperatures to drop into the mid/upper 30s behind the front, a handful of degrees cooler than the previous night. W/NW flow will prevail aloft Thursday with winds making a quick return back to the south. Slightly warmer conditions will end the week, with highs 10 to 15 degrees above seasonal norms by Friday. More considerable temperature uncertainty then exists this upcoming weekend, with the latest ensemble runs favoring a weaker (or nonexistent) front Friday. These trends the last few runs would result in the postponement of any significant cold air until Sunday, with forecast highs currently in the 40s and 50s. Weak isentropic lift may result in light rain as a weak shortwave moves through, but have kept the NBM's PoPs of 10% or less given the uncertainty in this weekend's system. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1125 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025 Light south winds will continue overnight before increasing in speed this afternoon and into the early evening, with speeds near 10 to 15 kts. Winds will diminish slightly tonight before the arrival of a cold front/northerly wind shift Wednesday morning, outside of the current TAF period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 55 37 65 45 / 0 0 0 0 Waco 58 34 64 44 / 0 0 0 0 Paris 53 32 59 42 / 0 0 0 0 Denton 54 32 64 40 / 0 0 0 0 McKinney 54 33 63 42 / 0 0 0 0 Dallas 55 37 64 45 / 0 0 0 0 Terrell 56 33 63 42 / 0 0 0 0 Corsicana 55 36 66 45 / 0 0 0 0 Temple 57 33 67 42 / 0 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 57 33 69 42 / 0 0 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Gordon LONG TERM....Gordon AVIATION...Gordon ####018012512#### FXUS63 KBIS 090600 AFDBIS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 1200 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Freezing rain will impact most of western and central North Dakota late overnight through this morning morning, with ice accumulations as high as one tenth of an inch. - Very strong winds expected late this morning through tonight, with gusts as high as 65 mph. - 1 to 4 inches of snow are expected in the Turtle Mountains area this morning through tonight. - Another round of snow will impact all of western and central North Dakota Wednesday afternoon through Thursday night. - Below average temperatures are expected Wednesday through the upcoming weekend, with dangerous wind chills possible Thursday evening through Saturday morning. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1200 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 Patch to areas of fog continue to be found over portions of central North Dakota into the James River Valley at the time of this mid night update. Visibilities have occasionally dropped to as low as 1/4 miles, though these have been fairly brief so far. Looking through NDDOT cameras, it appears that much of this fog is constrained to small fog banks scattered around the affected area. While visibility within these banks are poor, their small size means that they move off fairly quickly. If any location were to see a slightly more cohesive mass of fog, it would probably be in the northern James River Valley over the next few hours. That being said, mid to high based clouds moving out of the west are quickly overrunning the fog, and may help limit this development. UPDATE Issued at 1047 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025 Quick update to add patchy to areas of fog to the forecast over central ND through about 10 UTC based on observed trends which have fog developing on the edge of a stratus deck. This is no doubt aided by boundary layer moisture enhancement resulting from above-freezing temperatures over the snowpack today, and from the relatively sharp low-level inversion that's in place. UPDATE Issued at 1005 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025 Given the consensus of recent CAMs and other incoming 00 UTC model suites, we delayed the start time of the Winter Weather Advisory in western ND slightly until 1 am CST, and longer in central ND until 4 am CST. This was done in order to convey that impacts will not begin until later in the night, but we need to emphasize that once precipitation begins to develop, guidance suggests it will do so quickly, with increasing impacts quickly to follow. Forecast soundings suggest top-down saturation will only take 1-2 hours once low- and midlevel ascent arrives in any given location, and thermal profiles continue to display the requisite configuration for freezing rain with a warm nose aloft on the order of +3 to + 6 C atop a shallow, subfreezing surface layer. The 00z KABR RAOB reflected this thermal profile already, too. Note that surface temperatures are still expected to also warm above freezing from west to east Tuesday morning, but there is apt to be a lag between when surface temperatures exceed 32 F and when ground conditions warm above that threshold. We held off adding any of the remainder of far southwest ND to the Winter Weather Advisory with this update, since recent guidance suggests the greatest precipitation will be east of that area, but trends will be monitored closely in case a short-fuse expansion is needed. Otherwise, we updated hourly forecast fields with this update based on recent rapid- refresh model guidance. The overall forecast theme underwent only minor changes in timing, but we did increase precipitation chances into the 80-100 percent range over more of the area Tuesday morning. UPDATE Issued at 635 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025 Little change is needed to the forecast, and there were no changes to the Winter Weather Advisory and High Wind Warning with this update. As of early evening, a weak surface low is near Devils Lake and moving southeast out of the area. The midlevel air mass west and southwest of that system is very warm, with the 18z KBIS RAOB having already sampled a warm nose aloft that was around +3 C in the 900 to 850 mb layer. That will set the stage for freezing rain late tonight and Tuesday morning as forcing for ascent increases as a low- and midlevel warm front tied to a rapidly-deepening surface low in southern Canada and an associated intense jet streak aloft move across western and central ND. The 18 UTC global model guidance and recent rapid- refresh guidance remains in agreement on this scenario, so no changes were needed to our messaging at this time. We will need to carefully consider whether the rest of southwestern ND not already in a Winter Weather Advisory will need one for freezing rain for a few hours late tonight and Tuesday morning, but that area will be closest to the surface freezing line when precipitation develops. Otherwise, the incipient surface low with the upcoming system is in west central Alberta as of this writing, with water vapor imagery suggesting the intensifying upper-level jet streak that will foster its rapid strengthening the next 12 hours beginning to spread east across the Rockies. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 315 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025 Currently northwest flow is over the Northern Plains. At the surface a warm front has moved east through North Dakota. Colder air sits in southern Canada awaiting to be pulled into the state by the backside of the low pressure system moving in tonight. Across western ND temperatures are above freezing post warm front, with breezy west winds. An Atmospheric River from the Pacific Ocean is flowing over the Northern Rockies creating a large high cloud shield over Montana and North Dakota. The Storm: Tonight an Alberta Clipper will start to move into the Northern Plains, tapping into that Pacific Ocean moisture. With the current northwest flow, there is warm air aloft ahead of the low across eastern Montana and North Dakota. This will create a swath of freezing rain as surface temperatures will be below freezing, moving west to east early Tuesday morning through about noon CST. A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for this threat across most of western and central ND. We left the far southwest out because most of the precip will be farther north and east. If you are traveling to work in the morning be sure to check the road conditions. As the low moves through ND, and surface temperatures warm above freezing, it will switch to rain and the Winter Weather Advisory will expire at noon CST. The Turtle Mountains will be cooler and remain in the cold sector of the low, so mainly snow is expected. Current forecast totals are 1-4 inches with locally heavier amounts as you get closer to Canada and farther east into Towner County. The Winter Weather Advisory will remain there all day. QPF amounts are anywhere from 0.10 to 0.20 for the west and central. Closer to the northeast and east (the bullseye of the system) the amounts increase to 0.30 inches. A lot more snow will fall in the eastern part of the state where the cold sector and very strong frontogenesis with high lapse rates are located. Northeast ND will also be the left exit region of the jet stream, enhancing the lift and strength of the system. All that to say, snow amounts will be limited in our CWA by the length of time in the warm sector and lack of forcing. There will be a lull in precip in the afternoon before the wrap around moisture moves in from the north in the evening. This wrap around will mainly be snow, especially after sunset and through the overnight. Snow accumulations from Tuesday night will likely be below 1 inch and be limited to the Highway 52 corridor. For the winds, the pressure gradient will tighten in the late morning and combine forces with cold air advection (CAA) on the backside of the low. A strong pressure bubble will also be with the CAA, creating winds up to 65mph, possibly 70mph at times. We have a High Wind Warning out that will replace the Winter Weather Advisory at noon CST. The far southwest's Warning will start a tad earlier at 8am MST. The strong winds will reside Tuesday night, but breezy winds will continue through Wednesday morning. Blowing snow is also a concern but may be limited if the freezing rain puts a crust on the snow or if the rain soaks the snow enough to be too wet to be lofted. Likely either way there will be plenty of drifting snow across the roads Tuesday afternoon through the overnight. Rest of the week: Wednesday a Northern Rockies low will form and move through the state, bringing the next round of snow. Models continue showing strong frontogenesis setting up in a northwest to southeast diagonal across ND with jet stream support. Calibrated NBM probabilities for 1 inch of snow range from 20 to 50 percent. The higher chances are in the southwest where the frontogenesis may linger longer. Winds will not be as strong as Tuesday, only around 20mph. High temperatures will also be much cooler in the single digits in the northeast to the low 30s in the southwest (no snow pack). This snow system will linger into Friday. Northwest flow will then continue through the weekend, with very cold Arctic air dropping into the state. Lows starting Friday morning will be in the negatives statewide. Expect lows around 15 below in the north and 5 below in the south. This will make wind chill values of -25 to -40 across the state. This will need a Cold Weather product later this week. Saturday morning will be similar and Sunday morning will be slightly warmer but will still have wind chills around -20. In the northwest flow through the weekend, small waves will form off the Rocky Mountains, bringing low to medium (20-40%) chances of snow to North Dakota. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1200 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 An area of IFR to MVFR stratus will continue to effect parts of east central ND into the James River Valley through late tonight, and areas of fog near and on the edge of the stratus deck could result in localized MVFR to IFR visibilities, including at KMOT and KBIS. High-impact aviation weather is expected late tonight and Tuesday. We still expect freezing rain to begin in western ND between 07 and 10 UTC, and in central ND between 10 and 12 UTC. We expect a few hours of freezing rain at all terminals in western and central ND late tonight and Tuesday morning, before temperatures rise above freezing and precipitation turns to rain, then gradually diminishes from west to east. The exception wil be in far north central ND, e.g., the Turtle Mountain region, where snow is expected Tuesday and into Tuesday evening. MVFR to IFR ceilings are also expected with this precipitation late tonight and Tuesday morning. Low-level wind shear will develop late tonight and Tuesday as well, with westerly winds of 45 to 55 kt as low as 1500 AGL. Strong westerly surface winds will also develop from Tuesday morning into the early afternoon, before increasing further and turning more northwest, with peak gusts to around 50 kt Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday evening. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST /11 AM MST/ Tuesday for NDZ001-002-009-010-017-018-033-041-044. High Wind Warning from noon CST /11 AM MST/ to 9 PM CST /8 PM MST/ Tuesday for NDZ001>003-009>012-017>021. Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM CST /3 AM MST/ to noon CST /11 AM MST/ Tuesday for NDZ003-011-012-019>023-025-034>037-042- 045>048-050-051. Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM Tuesday to midnight CST Tuesday night for NDZ004-005-013. High Wind Warning from noon CST /11 AM MST/ Tuesday to 3 AM CST /2 AM MST/ Wednesday for NDZ022-023-025-033>037-041-042- 044>048-050-051. High Wind Warning from 8 AM to 8 PM MST Tuesday for NDZ031-032- 040-043. && $$ UPDATE...Adam/CJS DISCUSSION...Smith AVIATION...Adam ####018005335#### FXUS62 KJAX 090601 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 101 AM EST Tue Dec 9 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf - Patchy Frost Inland Southeast GA Early This Morning with temperatures in the middle 30s. - High Risk Rip Currents for Northeast FL beaches today. - Freeze Warning for Inland Southeast GA Wed Morning with widespread frost expected. - Small Craft Advisory this morning && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... High pressure will build in from the north-northwest through tonight while low level winds slowly turn from the north to the northeast. Broad mid to upper level troughing remains over the region keeping the max temperature trends below normal (about 10 deg) for today and tonight. Temps have fallen off well early this morning despite some residual low clouds in the area and north to northwest winds of about 5-10 mph with recent temperatures in the upper 30s for inland southeast GA to 40s and some lower 50s elsewhere. With a cold advection pattern in place, max temps today will below normal with highs in the lower to mid 50s north half of zones to upper 50s to lower 60s southern zones. Breezy north to northeast winds up to 10-15 mph expected, especially coastal areas east of I-95. The mean 0-1 km northeast flow beginning by sunrise will usher in some stratocumulus clouds that will be develop at times through tonight, with the coastal northeast FL under more of partly cloudy skies, but inland areas stay mostly sunny/mostly clear. Temps tonight will drop well below normal and have upgraded the freeze watch to a freeze warning. Some patchy to areas of frost can be expected just south of the freeze warning. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... The high pressure ridge will continue to sink south of the forecast area Wednesday as a cold front approaches from the northwest. This cold front will move southeast across forecast area Wednesday night through Thursday morning. The boundary is expected to pass through dry. High pressure will build to the west Thursday, then overhead Thursday night. Temperatures will trend below normal this period. With cold advection and high pressure in place, Thursday night will be well below normal, with an inland frost, mainly over SE GA expected. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... High pressure ridging will prevail Friday through Saturday night. A cold front will move southeast across the area Sunday into Sunday night. This front is expected to be move through largely dry. While the chance is not high enough for inclusion in the forecast at this time, a few spotty showers can not be ruled out. High pressure will build to the north Monday. Temperatures will be near to above normal through Sunday, then below Monday. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... A few MVFR cigs around at 1500-2500 ft for SGJ and near SSI, but mostly VFR conditions continuing through 12z Tuesday. Mainly VFR clouds today, but there are indications that MVFR cigs may continue at SGJ, and return for the other coastal TAFs so added in some TEMPO groups for these TAFs, and GNV will likely stay VFR through late Tuesday night. Sfc winds mainly north to northeast today increasing to 8-12 kt after 12z, with a gust to near 15-20 kt for SGJ and CRG. && .MARINE... High pressure will build in from the north northwest through Wednesday morning resulting in a gradual lowering of winds and seas. Current SCA headline will transition to exercise caution for most area waters by about 8 AM. The high will shift south of the waters Wednesday night as another cold front approaches from the northwest. On Wednesday night, winds will increase again with possible small craft advisory level winds offshore waters as the weak cold front moves through the area waters. High pressure will move into the area again by Friday morning and continue over the area into Saturday. Another front will approach the area waters from the northwest on Sunday. Rip Currents: We have a high rip current risk for northeast FL beaches today based latest guidance and rough surf, with moderate risk for southeast GA beaches. A fairly strong north to south longshore current is also anticipated. Lower rip current risk likely for Wednesday toward moderate. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 30 62 39 59 / 0 0 0 0 SSI 40 64 45 62 / 0 0 0 0 JAX 37 68 43 65 / 0 0 0 0 SGJ 46 69 48 65 / 0 0 0 0 GNV 39 69 45 67 / 0 0 0 0 OCF 42 69 46 68 / 0 0 0 0 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Risk for Rip Currents from 4 AM EST early this morning through late tonight for FLZ124-125-138-233-333. GA...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 8 AM EST Wednesday for GAZ132>136- 149-151>153-162-163-165-250-264-350-364. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for AMZ452- 454-470-472-474. && $$ ####018008186#### FXUS63 KLMK 090601 AFDLMK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 101 AM EST Tue Dec 9 2025 ...Updated Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... * Milder temperatures and sunshine return on Tuesday. * Windy conditions are expected Tuesday night into Wednesday, with widespread wind gusts of 25-35 mph and isolated gusts to 40 mph likely. * Several chances for light precipitation return during the second half of the week. Light wintry precipitation is possible Thursday night into Friday, but significant impacts are not expected at this time. * Cold temperatures are likely this weekend, but forecast temperatures have trended less cold. && .UPDATE... Issued at 900 PM EST Mon Dec 8 2025 Chilly, calm conditions are being observed this evening as high pressure drifts overhead. Most of southern Indiana (except for Harrison/Floyd counties) and western Kentucky now have mostly clear skies, which has allow temps to dip into the mid 20s already. Stratus continues to slowly scour out from the west and north across central KY, but we're also seeing the lower clouds thin a bit faster now over the Bluegrass. Expect a patch of SCT-BKN low clouds over central KY to gradually move off to the east over the next several hours. Temperatures will dip further into the upper teens to mid 20s during that time frame. Winds will remain light overnight, only beginning to increase out of the SSW toward dawn. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 346 PM EST Mon Dec 8 2025 This afternoon, cool and cloudy conditions are left in the wake of this morning's system which left anywhere from a dusting to 2 inches of snow as well as light rain across southern IN and central KY. Visible satellite shows that stratus clouds are beginning to clear across southern IN and western KY. The clearing process will gradually continue from north to south later this evening and tonight as high pressure moves over the area and cold advection subsides in the lower troposphere. As the high pressure moves across the region tonight, northerly winds should go light and variable this evening before becoming southerly early Tuesday morning as another low pressure system begins to approach from the northwest. Low clouds could linger tonight, especially across south central KY, and how much cooling we see will be dependent on how quickly clouds clear. Where clouds clear, temperatures should be able to fall into the low-to-mid 20s, and upper teens would be likely in areas which have greater snow cover. Additionally, some patchy fog can't be ruled out, though this should be limited as winds increase early Tuesday morning. On the other hand, if low clouds hang on, lows would only be expected to fall into the mid-to-upper 20s, and temperatures will likely rise or be stagnant in the immediate pre-dawn hours Tuesday as southerly winds increase. Tuesday should give us our first decent warm return flow day in a while as southwest winds strengthen ahead of an approaching sfc low pressure system. This warm advection should help to scour out any lingering low clouds, with scattered mid- and upper-level clouds expected throughout the day. Still, there should be at least filtered sunshine for most of the day on Tuesday, which when combined with warm breezes, should allow temperatures to warm into the mid- and upper-40s across the area. While the peak low- and mid- level winds will remain to the northwest of the area during the day on Tuesday, by the afternoon, we should be able to achieve 10-15 mph sustained SW winds with widespread wind gusts of 20-25 mph. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 346 PM EST Mon Dec 8 2025 The synoptic pattern during the second half of the upcoming week is expected to feature deep NW flow across much of the CONUS as an upper low spins over eastern Canada while upper ridging remains entrenched off the west coast. Shortwaves along the southwestern flank of the upper trough will bring several clipper systems across the central and eastern CONUS, providing several chances for light precipitation across the Ohio Valley. The first of these clipper systems should develop over the Dakotas Tuesday afternoon, with 990 mb sfc low pressure swinging across the Great Lakes Tuesday night into Wednesday. With our region sandwiched between the deep low pressure to the north and high pressure to the south, a strong pressure and height gradient will be in place across the region Tuesday night into Wednesday. As a result of the strong height gradient, a 60-65 kt H85 jet will swing across the Ohio Valley Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. While nighttime low- level stability should keep the strongest winds aloft, windy conditions are expected Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, with gusts of 25-35 mph likely. As is typical with clipper systems, moisture will be fairly limited and mostly confined to the north side of the system. With that being said, as a sfc cold front passes through the region Wednesday, there should be enough combination of lift and moisture to squeeze out scattered rain showers. Rainfall amounts should be light, with most areas receiving less than 0.10". Behind the Wednesday clipper system, temperatures should drop for Wednesday night into Thursday. While there could be a few scattered flurries on Thursday, it is more likely that Thursday will end up being dry across the area as we remain in between systems. Thursday night into Friday, there is pretty good agreement in a second shortwave and clipper system sliding across the Ohio Valley. Exact timing and precipitation types and amounts are a bit more variable between different model solutions. Given the modest cold air intrusion behind the mid-week system and limited moderation in temperatures, wintry p-types are more likely with this system. For example, of ECMWF ensemble members which have precipitation, roughly 80% show snow for Louisville. Once again, moisture with this system will be limited as the disturbance will be blocked from accessing Gulf moisture. As a result, while there is a reasonably good chance in wintry precipitation Thursday night into Friday, impacts are generally expected to be limited at this time. As we head from Friday into the coming weekend, there has been a notable shift in the model guidance with respect to the magnitude of the cold air over the past several model runs. Most recent guidance has trended milder, with less amplification of the upper wave pattern and less southward progression of the arctic air mass. As a result, temperatures with this forecast update have come up about 5- 10 degrees across the area on Saturday, though there is still a relatively large spread in temperature guidance. Below normal temperatures are still likely this weekend, though there should be a stronger north-south temperature gradient given the trend toward a more baroclinic/zonal flow pattern. Another effect of this change in the expected pattern would be increased chances for precipitation, though p-types and amounts are highly uncertain. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 100 AM EST Tue Dec 9 2025 There is a finger or stratus cutting north across central Kentucky over SDF. This layer drops south and wraps around very close to RGA, and south of LEX. Currently, believe SDF is about to improve to clear skies before an approaching mid-layer deck arrives later tonight from the northwest. Southwest winds are going to increase during the period before gusts begin during the day. Tuesday night, might see gusts to around 30 knots. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...None. IN...None. && $$ UPDATE...EBW SHORT TERM...CSG LONG TERM...CSG AVIATION...KDW ####018004131#### FXUS62 KTAE 090601 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 101 AM EST Tue Dec 9 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1203 AM EST Tue Dec 9 2025 - A quiet weather pattern is expected over the next 7 days, with no significant impacts. Impactful cold weather is forecast to remain north of the region. && .SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM... (Today through Monday) Issued at 1203 AM EST Tue Dec 9 2025 This morning and Wednesday morning will be chilly with lows in the 30s away from Gulf coast. Highs in the 50s today (coolest in Southwest GA closer to the 25th percentile of guidance) will warm into the 60s on Wednesday in advance of a dry cold front, with southwest winds gusting around 20 mph. Briefly cooler in the wake of the front on Thursday with mid-50s to mid-60s for highs before warming well into the 60s Friday. The trend will continue into the weekend with continued dry weather, and the next potential cold front early next week. As mentioned above, a quiet weather pattern is expected over the next 7 days, with no significant impacts. Impactful cold weather is forecast to remain north of the region. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1203 AM EST Tue Dec 9 2025 Skies are clear at all terminals right now. However, satellite imagery shows a BKN stratus deck over east-central Georgia that is moving to the southwest. Surface obs show cloud bases beneath this stratus ranging from 010-030. These clouds will spread across ABY and VLD around 10z-11z, then continue west-southwest to DHN and TLH. TLH will be near the south edge of the clouds. ECP will likely miss out and remain clear. On Tuesday night, shallow near-surface moisture and light winds should be a decent setup for shallow ground fog. Under these conditions, ECP could start to see visibility go down before the end of the 06z TAF valid period. && .MARINE... Issued at 1203 AM EST Tue Dec 9 2025 Fresh Northeast breezes will subside this morning, although seas remain elevated through much of the day, with tranquil boating conditions by tonight. Southwest winds increase in advance of a cold front Wednesday, and remain elevated into Thursday morning, in the 15 to 20 kt range. There is a low (30%) chance a Small Craft Advisory may be needed. Tranquil boating conditions return Thursday night through Saturday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1203 AM EST Tue Dec 9 2025 A dry period of weather is on tap for at least the next week. The main fire weather concern will be low dispersion through this afternoon over all but the Southeast FL Big Bend due to light northeast transport winds. Transport winds will become brisk southwest on Wednesday, yielding good dispersion, then become northwest after a dry cold frontal passage leading to fair dispersion on Thursday. No other fire weather concerns. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 1203 AM EST Tue Dec 9 2025 The next chance of rain is not until at least the middle of next week. There are no flooding concerns. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 58 35 67 44 / 0 0 0 0 Panama City 58 42 68 47 / 0 0 0 0 Dothan 54 32 64 40 / 0 0 0 0 Albany 54 31 64 39 / 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 56 31 64 42 / 0 0 0 0 Cross City 62 36 67 47 / 0 0 0 0 Apalachicola 57 44 66 50 / 0 0 0 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...LF LONG TERM....LF AVIATION...Haner MARINE...LF FIRE WEATHER...LF HYDROLOGY...LF ####018008979#### FXUS62 KRAH 090601 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 100 AM EST Tue Dec 9 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A vigorous mid and upper-level disturbance will move across VA and NC through this evening, then offshore. Arctic high pressure will follow and build across the region through Tuesday. The high will settle across the Southeast ahead of a strong, clipper low pressure system that swing across the Great Lakes Tuesday night and Wednesday. A moisture-starved cold front trailing the clipper low will move across NC Wednesday night. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 245 PM Sunday. . . *A Winter Weather Advisory in effect through 12pm Tuesday for portions of the northern Piedmont and northern Coastal Plain of central NC. *Up to an inch of snow accumulation is possible, highest along the immediate NC/VA border, with lesser amounts south. Isolated areas near the VA/NC border could receive up to 2 inches of snow. *Any leftover moisture on surfaces are expected to freeze Monday night resulting in areas of black ice Tuesday morning, thus the extension for the Winter Weather Advisory through noon on Tuesday. We are currently seeing a rain/snow mix line extending from just south of Roanoke Rapids down towards Asheboro. Drying has already begun across the western Piedmont with lingering snow showers across the Northwest Piedmont. Expect these snow showers to taper off this afternoon, over the next few hours. For the Triangle region many surface reports have been mainly rain-snow around the Durham area with a slow change over expected across the Raleigh/Wake County area in the next hour or so. Since there is drying aloft and the dry air within the column is making its way to the surface quickly, I would not expect a long lived “all snow” event for the Triangle area but as mentioned in previous discussions a quick burst of light snow before the end of the event. If any snow does fall, accumulations shouldn't be an issue for the Triangle region as temperatures are still just above freezing and wet snow flakes are expected to melt on contact with the warmer surfaces. However motorists should use extra caution with wet slippery roads this afternoon/evening. To the north of the Triangle, near the VA border we continue to see snow coming down with reports from Roxboro and Henderson of light snow falling across the region with accumulations only occurring on grassy and elevated surfaces. This band is expected to move across the northern Piedmont and into the Northern Coastal Plain over the next few hours, continuing as all snow. Latest model data shows a slight increase in amounts across the Northern Coastal Plain and areas along the VA border with this band as rates are expected to slightly increase the last few hours as it exits the area. All the precip is expected to exit the western portion of CWA over the next hour or so, and continue to clear the region through late evening. Temperatures are expected to crash as the cool dry air moves into the region with overnight lows in the mid to upper teens across the north to low/mid 20s US-64 south. As the shortwave exits the area later this evening, winds are expected to pick up as precip moves out with gusts up to 25 mph. Winds will calm down before sunrise as high pressure settles overhead. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 335 PM Monday... * Arctic cold, and dry Behind the vigorous shortwave trough that will have moved off the Middle Atlantic coast by the start of the period, heights aloft will rise across the Carolinas on Tuesday. Meanwhile, another shortwave perturbation now over the far nern Pacific, and dominated by shear vorticity and with model-analyzed upper-level winds of 150-175 kt, will dig sewd across the nrn Plains, then amplify sharply across the upr Midwest Tue night. Associated strong subsidence over cntl NC early Tue will weaken with time, but it will have a lasting dry influence through the lwr/mid-levels through Tue night. There will, however, be periods of considerable cirrus and cirrostratus that may become orographically-enhanced and regionally-maximized over the srn Middle Atlantic Tue afternoon through early Wed. At the surface, Arctic high pressure now centered at 1029 mb over MI will weaken while migrating swd and across the middle Atlantic and Carolinas Tue, then into nrn FL by 12Z Wed. It will do so downstream of a clipper low that will deepen into the 980s millibars over MI, 3- 4 sigma below average, by 12Z Wed. After light and variable winds within the Arctic surface ridge Tue, the MSL pressure gradient will tighten markedly over cntl NC between the ridge and the anomalously deep clipper low and favor the development of a swly breeze Tue night. After a very cold start to the day, and an icy one where snow accumulated and/or the ground was adequately soaked by rain (eg. at least several hundredths of an inch), temperatures will only rise to afternoon highs in the mid/upr 30s across the nrn Piedmont and nrn Coastal Plain to lwr-mid 40s elsewhere. Then despite the presence of the Arctic airmass, the aforementioned developing swly surface wind, and also high clouds that will probably thicken and lower with time through Wed morning, will keep overnight lows within a category or two of climo - mostly mid-upr 20s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 400 PM Monday... * Mostly dry, with near average temperatures Wed that will transition to well below average by Mon One polar vortex will rotate across srn QC and adjacent Atlantic Canada through the end of the week, while another will dig sewd across the Northwest Territories and cntl Canada. The models indicate the latter one will reach lower latitudes than the first and yield 3-4 sigma below average 500 mb heights as it progresses across and offshore srn New England Sun-Mon. At the surface, a cold front trailing a clipper low that will lift across the lwr Great Lakes Wed will move across cntl NC, moisture- starved and dry east of the Appalachians, Wed night. A modified and weakening Arctic high will follow and build across the OH Valley and srn Middle Atlantic through Thu night, during which time another clipper low will lead a much stronger Arctic high (1040+ mb) across the Canadian Prairies and nrn Plains. A warm front will precede that clipper low across the srn Middle Atlantic Fri-Fri night, which will place cntl NC on Sat between the Arctic front over the OH Valley and a separate, strengthening frontal zone over the Deep South and Southeast. Those two fronts are likely to merge over VA/NC on Sunday, with following strong, Arctic ridging over the Middle Atlantic through early next week. The sensible weather related to the pattern described above will feature moderating and mild temperatures, and with a strong and gusty swly surface wind, on Wed. Aside from a small chance of rain along the retreating warm front on Fri, mainly near and north of the VA border, it will be continued dry and seasonably chilly through at least the first half of the weekend. The next chance of precipitation will accompany the merging frontal zones over NC on Sun, but with lift and precipitation chances that will probably depart prior to the arrival of the cold air, with associated limited threat of wintry precipitation. Sun night and Mon then appear just very cold and dry under the influence of the dominant, Arctic ridge. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 100 AM Tuesday... Light snow/flurries have largely ended across the area, leaving behind widespread MVFR ceilings across the area. However, dry low- level air advection from the north and increasing subsidence aloft should support a return to VFR condition from NE to SW between 08 to 14z. Thereafter, expect periods of broken/overcast cirrus clouds, especially across the northern terminals. Northerly gustiness will diminish will overnight with winds becoming light and variable before shifting to SWLY late Tuesday morning into the afternoon. Outlook: A 45-50 kt LLJ will result in a period of LLWS Tuesday night into early Wednesday, followed by turbulent conditions Wednesday with frequent SWLY gusts of 30 to 40 mph. Otherwise, predominately VFR is expected through late week. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Weather Advisory from 7 AM Monday to noon EST Tuesday for NCZ007>011-021>028-041>043. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MWS NEAR TERM...CA SHORT TERM...MWS LONG TERM...MWS AVIATION...CBL ####018005650#### FXUS64 KLCH 090602 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 1202 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... - A moderation in temperatures is expected on Tuesday into Wednesday as high pressure moves off to the east and light winds return off the Gulf. - A dry cold front is expected late Wednesday before temperatures quickly moderate again by the end of the week with no significant chance for rainfall. - Another cold front is scheduled for Sunday that may bring a slight chance for showers. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Thursday night) Issued at 1155 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025 Cold air advection cloud deck moving south-southwest across the Louisiana portion of the forecast area will make overnight low temperatures tricky as when clouds move in temperatures should be steady. Therefore, bump up the overnights a couple of degrees for the Louisiana locations. Still some question if the clouds can make it all the way to southeast Texas for sunrise. Surface high pressure over the middle to lower Mississippi River Valley is expected to continue to slide off to the east today and this will allow for a gradual turning of the winds to become more easterly and southeasterly today then southeasterly on Wednesday. Dry northwest flow will continue aloft and therefore Gulf moisture return will be shallow with some moderation in temperature and modest increase in low level humidity. During the night Tuesday night into Wednesday morning some patchy fog will be possible with the low level moisture and expected light winds and mainly clear skies. With the northwest flow aloft provided by an upper level trough east of the Mississippi, a short wave will drop on down late Wednesday into Wednesday night that will bring a weak cold front with it. Cold frontal passage is expected to be dry as moisture remains shallow with mean layer relative humidity between 100H-50H below 40 percent. Seasonally cool temperatures behind the front for Thursday before high quickly moves off to the east and southerly winds off the Gulf return. 07/Rua && .LONG TERM... (Friday through next Monday) Issued at 1155 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025 Increasing southerly winds at the end of the week into the beginning of the weekend as surface high pressure moves off to the east coast and low pressure develops east of the Rockies. Increasing flow off the Gulf will bring about warmer than normal conditions for Friday into Saturday. A cold front is expected to move across during Sunday. There is some increase in moisture with PWAT values getting above the 75th percentile and mean layer relative humidity nearing 70 percent. Although upper level dynamics and low level forcing at this time is progged to be not too impressive. Therefore, will keep pops on the low side for the Sunday frontal passage. Still some question as to how cold the air mass will be behind this frontal system with some guidance suggesting the push of the colder air will be off to the east or stay to the northeast. 75th-25th whisker plots from the NBM show temperature differences of Sunday night into Monday of some 20+ degrees. At this time will go with the deterministic NBM numbers that are close to the mean. 07/Rua && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1135 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025 Cold air advection strato-cu shield is moving south-southwest into the forecast area and over the KAEX/KLFT/KARA terminals with MVFR ceilings. These clouds are expected to hang around through the night. Question is far west this cloud deck will get. At this point it should get to KLCH between 09/07-10z. Will keep KBPT VFR for now but will place some SCT015 by 09/11z. Cloud cover is expected to break up by mid morning Tuesday as cold air advection wanes as high pressure moves off to the east. Mainly VFR is then expected into the afternoon hours on Tuesday with light southeast winds. 07/Rua && .MARINE... Issued at 1155 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025 High pressure centered over lower Mississippi River valley will move off to the east today allowing for a light easterly flow over the coastal waters, then becoming light southerly on Wednesday. A weak dry cold front will move into the coastal waters late Wednesday to bring a brief period of light to modest offshore winds before winds again become onshore by the end of the week. No significant shower activity is expected through the end of the week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1155 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025 High pressure will move off to the east today allowing light southerly winds to return and with that some shallow Gulf moisture. Minimum afternoon relative humidity will be in the 50 to 55 percent range today, then near 60 percent on Wednesday. Despite the increase in moisture, no significant rain is expected over the next few days. There will be a chance for some patchy shallow fog during the late night and early morning hours. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 54 34 58 38 / 0 0 0 0 LCH 58 37 59 45 / 0 0 0 0 LFT 56 37 59 42 / 0 0 0 0 BPT 60 39 62 47 / 0 0 0 0 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...07 LONG TERM....07 AVIATION...07 ####018004181#### FXUS64 KSJT 090602 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 1202 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 ...New LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... - Warmer today, cooler Wednesday, then warmer than normal Thursday and Friday. - Cold frontal passage Saturday with cooler temperatures Sunday. - Dry forecast this week and during the weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 200 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025 Pleasant weather will continue into Tuesday. For tonight, expect clear skies, with light winds and overnight lows ranging from the lower 40s across the Big Country, to mainly the mid and upper 30s elsewhere. Lee trough will develop on Tuesday, with breezy southwest winds developing. This will result in warmer temperatures across the area, with above normal temperatures. Skies will be mostly sunny, with afternoon highs in the upper 60s and lower 70s. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 1202 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 The forecast will remain dry for our area through the end of this week and the weekend. Initially northwest flow aloft over our area will gradually weaken through the end of this week. A cold front will move south across our area on Wednesday, and gusty northeast winds will follow its passage before dropping off by evening. Temperatures will be cooler Wednesday with highs ranging from the lower 60s in parts of the Big Country, to near 70 in our far southern counties. A surface high will shift southeast across our area Wednesday night, with clear skies and light winds facilitating radiational cooling. Overnight lows will be in the 30s, and anticipate that several locations will have lows at or just below freezing. Warmer temperatures will return Thursday with sunny skies and south-southwest winds. Highs Thursday are expected to be 70-75 degrees. A weak cold front is progged to move south into the Big Country Friday afternoon. This should limit highs to the upper 60s in the northern Big Country. The area farther south will have south winds, sunny skies and well-above normal highs at least in the lower to mid 70s. Some upper 70s are possible in our southern counties. These well-above normal highs look to continue on Saturday for our central and southern counties, while a stronger cold front pushes south across the Big Country in the afternoon. This cold front is forecast to advance south across the rest of our area Saturday evening and early Saturday night, and gusty northeast winds will follow its passage. Sunday will be comparatively much cooler with increasing cloudiness. At this time, blended model solution has highs Sunday ranging from the upper 40s/lower 50s in the Big Country, to near 60 along the I-10 corridor. Worth mentioning that medium range models have varied with the timing of a stronger cold front at the end of this week (Friday vs Saturday) and its strength. Return flow is progged to develop Monday with considerable cloud cover and highs in the lower to mid 60s. Medium range models show a shortwave trough over the southwestern states by early next week which could approach our area. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 929 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025 VFR conditions will continue across West Central Texas terminals through Tuesday evening. Light south winds will continue into Tuesday morning. However, wind speeds will increase late morning into the afternoon with winds gusting over 20kts at times by Tuesday afternoon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 69 45 64 38 / 0 0 0 0 San Angelo 69 42 67 33 / 0 0 0 0 Junction 70 41 71 33 / 0 0 0 0 Brownwood 69 40 66 33 / 0 0 0 0 Sweetwater 70 45 63 39 / 0 0 0 0 Ozona 67 39 68 35 / 0 0 0 0 Brady 69 45 66 36 / 0 0 0 0 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...24 LONG TERM....19 AVIATION...07 ####018007820#### FXUS63 KDLH 090603 AFDDLH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 1203 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - A Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect for the Arrowhead, Koochiching, Itasca, and the northern 2/3 of St. Louis county for 2 to 4 inches of snow. Around 1 to 3 inches of snow are expected elsewhere. This round of snow will fall this evening through early Wednesday morning. - More snow is expected Tuesday afternoon through early Wednesday with potential for widespread accumulating snow and difficult travel possible for the Tuesday afternoon and early Wednesday morning commute. The Winter Storm Watch has been upgraded to a Warning for southern Cass to Burnett County, and to an Advisory for the remaining watch counties, generally along and south of US-2. - Additional light snow episodes are possible late-week into next weekend along with cold air and below-zero temperatures likely at night. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 221 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025 Headline Changes: Two separate clippers will bring snow to the Northland to start the week. The first arriving this evening, with snow accumulations of 1 to 4 inches, mainly across north central MN and Arrowhead. A Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect from Koochiching and Itasca counties eastward through the Arrowhead, through 3AM Tuesday. The second clipper arrives tomorrow afternoon, and will pack a bigger punch, with 5-6 inches possible along a corridor from Southern Cass to Burnett county. Locally higher amounts up to 8 inches are possible. These counties have been upgraded to a Winter Storm Warning. Elsewhere, 3-5 inches is possible as far north as northern Cass to southern St. Louis county, and all other NW Wisconsin counties. These counties have been upgraded to an Winter Weather Advisory. Elsewhere, lower amounts are expected. Tonight's Clipper: Starting to see heavier radar returns crossing the ND/MN state line, with vis reductions on area obs, indicating heavier snowfall now falling across the Red River Valley. Southerly flow ahead of the clipper will result in lake effect snow along the North Shore this afternoon and early evening. These should not result in much accumulation, but could make for slippery roads along the North Shore. The greater impact will come with heavier snow associated with the clipper currently moving through the Red River Valley, and expected to cross into the Northland by 5-6pm. This band will quickly push eastward this evening, with most of the snowfall east of the Arrowhead and northwest WI before sunrise Tuesday. Heavy snowfall rates are possible, with 0.5-1 inch per hour possible given steep lapse rates aloft and strong synoptic lift under the shortwave. It will likely only snow for 1-3 hours, with quick accumulations of 2-4inches. Maintained the current Winter Weather Advisory, even through there was a slight decrease in total accumulations, due to high snowfall rates. As the clipper exits to the east, winds do become west to northwest, but diminish rather quickly. Have included a brief period of lake effect snow on the South Shore early Tuesday morning. Tuesday's Clipper: A brief break in precipitation is expected Tuesday morning, before the next clipper moves into the region. This clipper will be more robust, dynamically, with a stronger surface low passing to our southwest and pulling more moisture from the Pacific Northwest across the Upper Midwest. Lapse rates and high moisture content support another event with high snowfall rates of 1+ inch per hour. There has been a southern shift both with the best moisture and forcing, keeping the highest snow band south of US-2, and closer to the Brainerd Lakes region eastward across the I-35 corridor near Pine City. Could have 4-6inches in that corridor, with up to 8 inches locally. With the southern shift, amounts further north decreased, with 3-5 inches along and south of US-2. Further north, across the BWCA and Arrowhead, less than 2 inches is expected. Most impacts from this clipper will occur Tuesday afternoon and evening, during the evening commute. The Winter Storm Watch has been upgraded to a Warning from southern Cass to Burnett County, where the heavier band is expected. The remaining counties in the watch have been upgraded to an Advisory. Midweek through the Weekend: As northwesterly flow develops Wednesday, weak cyclonic forcing could lead to light snow showers continuing through the day, with further enhancement along the South Shore. High pressure arrives Wednesday night, bringing an end to the showers, but with a surge of colder air that keeps highs in the teens Thursday, and lows below zero. Another clipper moves through the northern Plains Thursday night into Friday, with limited accumulations for the Northland. This system does bring another surge of cold air southward for the weekend, with highs around 0 degrees Saturday and lows in the -10F to -20F range. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1203 AM CST Mon Dec 8 2025 The first of two clippers is moving through the region as of 05Z. Snow, heavy at times, will progress eastward through 12Z. Weather spotters reported freezing drizzle near PWC, Pine River MN, at 0415Z. GOES-East night microphysics imagery reveals an area of potential freezing drizzle which persists for several hours after snow ends. Ceilings may improve to MVFR before the next clipper arrives later today. That system will bring IFR/LIFR ceilings and visibility. There could be a period of freezing drizzle as that system departs also. && .MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/... Issued at 221 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025 Southwest winds will increase ahead of an approaching clipper this evening, and be hazardous to smaller vessels through tonight. Snow will spread eastward over the water this evening which will reduce visibility to less than 1/2 mile at times. Winds quickly veer northwest after midnight tonight and will weaken Tuesday morning. Another fast-moving clipper will pass to the south of the lake Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday afternoon. Winds will back northeasterly and strengthen Tuesday evening and will become hazardous for small craft once again. Gales are most likely Tuesday night and Wednesday morning between Silver Bay and Grand Portage. There is about a 20 to 40 percent chance of gales to at least 35 knots during that time. A Gale Watch is now in effect for that time period. Winds will gradually back northwesterly by Wednesday afternoon and will gradually diminish. For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt. && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST Tuesday for MNZ010>012- 018>021-026. Winter Weather Advisory from noon Tuesday to 3 AM CST Wednesday for MNZ025-035-037. Winter Storm Warning from noon Tuesday to 3 AM CST Wednesday for MNZ033-034-036-038. WI...Winter Weather Advisory from 3 PM Tuesday to 6 AM CST Wednesday for WIZ001>004-007>009. Winter Storm Warning from 3 PM Tuesday to 6 AM CST Wednesday for WIZ006. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM CST Tuesday for LSZ121-140>148- 150. Gale Warning from 10 PM Tuesday to 10 AM CST Wednesday for LSZ140-141. && $$ DISCUSSION...HA AVIATION...Huyck MARINE...HA ####018004660#### FXUS64 KLUB 090603 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 1203 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 ...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1203 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 - Very mild and breezy Tuesday ahead of a cold front early Wednesday morning. - Brisk winds are expected Wednesday following the passage of a polar cold front. - A weakening Arctic cold front will arrive Friday morning, with a secondary front arriving Sunday and much cooler temperatures. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 1203 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 All was quiet this night on the plains with nary a cloud found. The 10 PM surface analysis had a surface trough bisecting the forecast area and this feature will remain largely stationary through the day on Tuesday under continued NW flow. The trough will become better defined by Tuesday afternoon as downslope flow and diurnal heating ramp up, but am skeptical of the NAM's weaker winds during the day owing to its higher dewpoints and diffuse trough structure. Opted to keep with breezier speeds around 20 mph for much of the Caprock as we expect deeper mixing in this continued very warm and dry pattern. Roughly 1000 miles to our north, a textbook Alberta Clipper will race across North Dakota during the day before reaching western Minnesota by sunset. While this low's parent trough will remain too far from our domain, we will see its cold front enter our picture during the pre-dawn hours on Wednesday with breezy north winds. However, the coolest air is not expected until after sunrise so overnight lows should stay mild on steady WNW breezes. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 1203 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 Brisk, northerly winds are expected Wednesday following the passage of a cold front earlier in the morning. The airmass trailing the front will be of polar origin and associated with an Alberta Clipper system moving across the Great Lakes and Corn Belt regions. Winds were raised from the NBM and aligned with the recent MOS output due to moderate pressure rises of around 6 mb/3 hr persisting through the early afternoon hours. While CAA will be moderating, the already very cold airmass and snowpack in the northern U.S. and Canada leads to the thinking that temperatures Wednesday will be cooler than the NBM prognostication. Therefore, highs were lowered, with a weight applied from the raw MOS guidance (CONSRaw), which keeps highs in the upper 50s and lower 60s. Winds will veer southward by Thursday morning, as the 1020 mb surface high rotates into central N TX prior to sunrise. Geopotential height tendencies will become slightly positive Thursday, as the subtropical ridge over the northeastern Pacific Ocean sloshes eastward and the shortwave trough associated with the Alberta Clipper becomes vertically-stacked as it moves into the Canadian Maritimes. Thursday is still expected to be the warmest day of the week, with highs about 15 degrees above seasonal norms and peaking in the lower-middle 70s amidst light winds. A weakening Arctic cold front will arrive Friday morning, and while the front will have been of Arctic origin, the CAA associated with it will be substantially modified. This is due to the base of the large-scale trough and the respective cold core low remaining stretched out over the northern Great Plains and the Great Lakes region, enabling an earlier start to frontolysis as it moves southward into the southern Great Plains. There still remains a spread in the high temperatures among the global NWP guidance for Friday, but it has converged somewhat compared to the past 24-48 hours, with the lower-bound high within 10 degrees now versus 20+ degrees days prior. NBM highs are on the warmer side of the envelope and remain intact for this prognostication, but adjustments may be necessary in forthcoming cycles as NWP guidance converges on the timing and strength of the front. Above-normal temperatures are forecast for Saturday, with a secondary, stronger front to arrive Sunday which will be accompanied by much cooler temperatures. Sincavage && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1203 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 VFR with light winds becoming westerly at 15-20 knots at LBB, less elsewhere. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...93 LONG TERM....09 AVIATION...93 ####018015699#### FXUS66 KPQR 090604 AAA AFDPQR Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Portland OR 1004 PM PST Mon Dec 8 2025 Updated aviation discussion. .SYNOPSIS...A strong atmospheric river is underway across the Pacific Northwest, bringing heavy rainfall, breezy winds, and widespread hydrologic concerns. Widespread river flooding is likely across the region, along with urban and small stream flooding due to persistent heavy rain. Wind may lead to downed trees and power outages due to saturated soils. && .SHORT TERM...Now through Wednesday...The strong atmospheric river (AR) event has begun across the Pacific Northwest, with radar imagery showing moderate to locally heavy rain across northwest Oregon and southwest Washington as of early Monday afternoon. Satellite imagery clearly shows a long, narrow band of moisture extending from the Pacific Northwest out 3000+ miles offshore, and about 1200 miles northwest of Hawaii. This atmospheric river is being driven by a sub-tropical ridge centered just offshore of Southern California and Baja California (~32.05N/130.94W), and a trough centered south of the Aleutian Islands of Alaska (~45.79N/164.89W). Moisture is being advected along the northwestern periphery of the ridge and the southeastern periphery of the trough, leading to the extended band of moisture progressing toward the Pacific Northwest. Ensemble guidance suggests minimal change in the synoptic pattern over the next 48 hours; therefore, this atmospheric river event and associated impacts are expected to last through at least Wednesday. There are one of two surges of moisture coming into the Pacific Northwest with this AR. The first is coming in right now, which is associated with integrated vapor transport (IVT) values of 750-900 kg/ms based off GFS and Euro ensemble guidance. This will maintain steady rainfall and lead to substantial rainfall amounts across western Washington and far northwest Oregon (especially Salem northward). Lower rainfall amounts are forecast for the southern Willamette Valley (Eugene) as most of the moisture is being directed further north. Urban and small stream flooding is possible throughout this AR event, especially in areas that are low-lying and have poor-drainage. If you will be commuting during periods of heavy rain, make sure to slow down, use your headlights, and leave plenty of distance ahead of you. Since 12 AM Monday, weather stations have already reported 1.5-2.25 inches of rain across the north Oregon and south Washington coasts, Willapa Hills, north Oregon Coast Range, and south Washington Cascades and foothills. These amounts were achieved by heavier rainfall rates of 0.25-0.50" per hour. Based off the latest REFS guidance, most ensemble members suggest that these rainfall rates will continue through late Monday evening into early Tuesday morning over the aforementioned areas. Rainfall rates this high will result in rivers and creeks that drain off the Willapa Hills and Clatsop/Tillamook Counties to start rising sharply through the evening (see hydrology section for more details on river flooding). Elsewhere, rainfall amounts since midnight generally range from 0.25-1", with the highest amounts further north you go. South of Albany, OR and across the Lane County Cascades, amounts have been around 0.10" or less, which is expected given the more northward track of the AR. This plume of AR moisture will briefly track southward tonight into early Tuesday morning, bringing increased rainfall toward Lane County. Will see a very brief break in rainfall rates across far northwest Oregon and southwest Washington Tuesday morning, but that doesn't mean we'll be clear of any impacts. Local rivers tend to lag a few hours following heavy rainfall, so will most likely see rivers continuing to rise and potentially hit flood stage even when rain has decreased. Again, more details in the hydrology section on this. The second surge of AR moisture will hit western Washington and far northwest Oregon Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday, bringing another round of moderate to locally heavy rainfall to these areas. It will be a similar set-up as today, but this time ensemble guidance suggests IVT values will be around 600-700 kg/ms. Given the amount of rain that will have fallen before this second round, local rivers will continue to rise and concerns for urban and small stream flooding will continue. For snow and winter sport lovers, unfortunately this AR will be very warm and snow levels will remain above 8000 feet through Wednesday. Wind will also potentially bring impacts during this AR event. Wind Advisories remain in effect through 4 AM Tuesday across the central/north Oregon Coast Range, Willapa Hills, Willamette Valley from Salem northward, and southwest Washington lowlands. Southerly winds are forecast to gust up to 30-40 mph tonight. Saturated soils will increase the likelihood that even moderate gusts could cause uprooting of trees and lead to damage. While there is moderate to high confidence in potential impacts due to wind, there is low confidence on exactly where impacts may occur. If you see a downed power line, move away from it. Do not drive over downed power lines. If you come into contact with a downed power line, stay inside the car and call for help. -10 .LONG TERM...Wednesday Night through Sunday...The atmospheric river event weakens Wednesday afternoon into Thursday as moisture transport gradually decreases. Light residual showers continue, with some localized areas of moderate rain showers over higher terrain across southwest Washington and the north Oregon Coast Range. By Thursday, the pattern transitions toward a more typical post- frontal regime with shower activity gradually decreasing and winds weakening. Friday becomes drier as high pressure builds over the region. Snow levels will also gradually lower heading into the weekend, but still remain above pass-level at around 5500-6500 feet. Despite the weather becoming more tame late in the week, rivers and soils will continue responding to the cumulative rainfall load from the current atmospheric river event. Any slow-responding rivers within flood stage will need extra time to subside. -10/12 && .AVIATION...The strongest portion of the first stage of the atmospheric river continues to shift southward today with the frontal edge hitting the south Washington coast. This system has been exhibiting wind speeds around 30 kt at the surface with some exposed areas within the Columbia River Gorge above 3000 ft MSL seeing gusts up to 65 kt. The winds are beginning to ease inland though are continuing to blow along the coast. Widespread gusts up to 30 kt expected along coastal terminals. Winds inland remain gusty with speeds around 20-25 kt. We are beginning to see the shift in flight conditions as the system shifts southward. Northern runways are beginning to see CIGs lift to VFR while coastal and central runways are remaining IFR or MVFR. Through the night the front will bring the southern portions of the forecast area the MVFR conditions. Through the day on Tuesday after 18Z, the atmospheric river will move north once again. Think of this system doing the "wave". As it does so, the areas that saw a brief reprieve will once again deteriorate. Overall, while a dynamic system with many different moving parts, the impacts will be similar through the next 24-hours. Will add, that while it does not impact most of our terminals or runways, wind speeds at around 5000 ft MSL are gusting as high as 80 kt then decrease to around 70 kt after 21Z Tue. This is a very active jet stream. KPDX AND APPROACHES...A mixture of VFR and MVFR conditions over the next 24 hours. Timing has been incredibly difficult due to the movement of the atmospheric river. Portland has been sitting in the bullseye of the system and therefore winds and rain have been strong. These conditions will continue to improve over the next few hours, but will deteriorate once again after 18Z Tue as the frontal system moves right back over. While winds will decrease through the day, winds aloft remain quite strong. -27 && .MARINE...Gales continue across all zones as a strong system passes over the region. Wind gusts 35-45 kt will continue through late tonight - strongest over the inner waters. The gale warning remains in effect until 1 AM Tuesday. A lull is expected early Tuesday morning as the frontal boundary drops southward, decreasing winds from north to south. Wind gusts are expected to drop below 20 kt everywhere except zones PZZ273 and PZZ253. Seas will also remain steep during this time so a Small Craft Advisory will follow the gale warning from 1 AM to 7 PM Tuesday to cover these elevated conditions. Another front is expected to pass through the waters late Tuesday into Wednesday and will push wind gusts closer to 30-35 kt. There is increasing potential for gales Tuesday evening into the overnight and may require an upgrade to another Gale Warning. Seas will increase into the low to mid teens with this second system, reaming above 10 feet through Wednesday night. -19 && .BEACH HAZARDS...Tidal overflow flooding around high tide is possible on Tuesday, December 9. Despite total tide forecasts decreasing over the coming days, river levels will be rapidly rising due to a prolonged period of heavy rain through Wednesday. Confidence has increased that several rivers along the Oregon Coast north of Lincoln City and the SW Washington Coast will reach at least 80% of flood flow by high tide Monday afternoon, when total tide forecasts are expected to peak near or slightly above 9.5 ft. Therefore, a Coastal Flood Advisory for tidal overflow remains in effect until 6 PM PST today for these coastal zones. It appears the threat for tidal overflow flooding is low on Tuesday, as total tide forecasts decrease considerably and are well below the 9.5 foot threshold. That said, minor tidal overflow flooding cannot be completely ruled out for a brief period of time around high tide on Tuesday given river levels will be running quite high at that time. Will continue to monitor the tidal and river forecasts for Tuesday. Additionally, there is an elevated threat for sneaker waves late Wednesday through Thursday along the SW Washington coast south through the central Oregon coast. The swell period increases to around 14-15 seconds with swell heights around 9-11 ft, with swell heights and swell periods decreasing late Thursday night. This will create energetic waves that will present a moderate to high risk for sneaker waves, waves which can run significantly farther up a beach than normal, including over rocks and jetties. Sneaker waves can suddenly knock beachgoers off if their feet and quickly pull them into the frigid ocean which may lead to serious injury or drowning. Caution should be used when in or near the water. Always keep an eye on the waves, and be especially watchful of children. -23/03 && .HYDROLOGY...A series of frontal systems will maintain very wet conditions through much of this week. The most notable period will extend through late Wednesday, when a long-duration atmospheric river will bring significant rainfall and the potential for widespread river flooding across southwestern Washington and northwestern Oregon. There is a 10% chance for 72-hour rainfall of up to 6-8.5 inches in the Cowlitz Valley, lower Columbia, Portland/Vancouver metro and northern Willamette Valley, 4-6 inches in the central Willamette Valley, 3-4 inches in the southern Willamette Valley, 7-11 inches in the Cascades, Cascade foothills, Coast Range, and the coast, except 3.5-7 inches from Florence to Newport and in areas of higher terrain in Lane County. While rain amounts this high are unlikely to occur, they represent a reasonable worst case scenario. This outcome would result in widespread major flooding. Chances for high total rainfall amounts as well as brief periods of locally heavy rainfall in Lane County have continued to trend downward today. This suggests future river model suites will see similar downward trends in the likelihood of river flooding. Although rain will likely become lighter on Thursday, the threat of flooding will linger along slow-responding rivers. Rivers draining the Coast Range and Willapa Hills have a 40-70% chance of reaching moderate flood stage and a 20-50% chance of reaching major flood stage, with a handful of rivers already observing flooding, namely the Grays River draining the Willapa Hills in Major flood and the Wilson River in Tillamook in Minor flood. Additionally, many Willamette River tributaries that drain from the Coast Range and Cascades have anywhere from a 40-60% chance of reaching minor flood stage and a 20-40% chance of reaching moderate flood stage. Flooding of the Willamette mainstem rivers have a very low chance to occur (5-15%). Probabilities for specific river points can be found at the National Water Prediction Service website. Flood Warnings have been issued for the Naselle River near Naselle and the Grays River near Rosburg draining the Willapa Hills in southwestern Washington, the Wilson and Trask Rivers near Tillamook, and Johnson Creek at Sycamore near Milwaukie and along the southern edge of the City of Portland. There is also increasing confidence in the potential for flooding along small creeks and streams as well as urban flooding, including roadway flooding. Latest high-resolution guidance favors a band of heavier precipitation lingering over southwestern Washington and far northwestern Oregon late this evening, before sagging southward through the early morning hours. These potential heavy rainfall rates could make for a hazardous morning commute along the I-5 corridor from Salem north through Portland/Vancouver to Kelso/Longview with abundant water atop area roadways. Periods of heavy rain will also increase the risk for landslides in areas of steep terrain and debris flows over recently burned areas. People, structures, and roads located below steep slopes, in canyons, and near the mouths of canyons may be at serious risk from rapidly moving landslides. Therefore, a Flood Watch remains in effect across all of southwest Washington and northwest Oregon from now until 4 AM Friday. && .PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...Coastal Flood Advisory from noon to 5 PM PST Tuesday for ORZ102. Wind Advisory until 4 AM PST Tuesday for ORZ104>115-123. WA...Wind Advisory until 4 AM PST Tuesday for WAZ202>208. PZ...Gale Warning until 1 AM PST Tuesday for PZZ210-251-271. Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 7 PM PST Tuesday for PZZ210- 251-271. Gale Warning until 7 AM PST Tuesday for PZZ252-253-272-273. Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM to 7 PM PST Tuesday for PZZ252- 253-272-273. && $$ www.weather.gov/portland Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSPortland x.com/NWSPortland