####018007289#### FXUS62 KMHX 072030 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 330 PM EST Sun Dec 7 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will move through on Monday with low pressure developing along it, bringing a wintry mix to portions of the area. High pressure will build back over the area mid week. Another low and cold front move in late in the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 2 AM Sun...Another raw, cool and cloudy day for ENC with highs stuck in the 40s. For tonight, partial clearing occurs, leading to patchy to areas of fog, locally dense at times, esp nwrn counties. No freezing fog expected, as temps will be warmer than last night. Lows range from 32-36 inland, to the 40s along the coast. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY/... Key messages... - Wintry mix expected Monday afternoon to evening northwest counties. - Black ice formation Mon night to Tue AM as temperatures fall into the 20s. Wet roads from rain and snow Monday become icy later Mon night, impacting the Tuesday morning commute. As of 2 AM Sun...Tricky fcst upcoming with p-type and snow amount challenges for your Monday. Shortwave trough will swing through swings through the Southeast states, while sfc cyclogenesis occurs off the Carolina Coast. A combination of lowering thicknesses through the day, along with column cooling through inc lift/uvv and precip loading will lead to rain changing to a ra/sn mix, possibly mostly snow for our nwrn counties. Model differences abound however, with some of the guidance (NAM/FV3/GFS) indicating a colder column and more rapid changeover to snow, while the Euro, AIFS, CMC, HRRR are warmer aloft and retain snow the far northwest. Have based the forecast and snow amts on the ECM, which as been quite consistent, with any accums relegated to the far nwrn counties. Probabilities for 1" of snow are ~30-60% along the Hwy 64 corridor from Plymouth to wrn Martin county, ~10-30% for the Hwy 264 corridor from Washington to Farmville in Pitt County. This makes the most sense, as temps will be well above freezing through the day Mon, making it difficult for snow to accumulate. The NAM/GFS are too bullish on snow amounts given the warmer initial conditions. By the time temps fall to freezing and below Mon evening, snow should be tapering off quickly from w to e. For the eastern and southern counties, predominantly rain is fcst. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 3 PM Sun... Key messages... - Black ice formation Mon night to Tue AM as temperatures fall into the 20s. Wet roads from rain and snow Monday become icy later Mon night, impacting the Tuesday morning commute. Dry and seasonably cold mid week. Another weather maker possible by week's end, turning much colder next weekend. Monday night through Tuesday...Biggest impacts from the snow and precipitation will be the development of black ice, as temperatures fall through the 20s during the overnight period. Any rain or snow that falls during the day will freeze up overnight, esp on elevated surfaces like bridges and overpasses, leading to hazardous contions for the Tue morning commute. Wednesday through Thursday...Dry conditions expected as high pressure builds back in at the surface. Highs in the 40s Tue warming back into the 50s to near 60 Wed and Thu as winds become Sw. Good radiational cooling will bring lows into the 20s for most of Mainland ENC, with 30s on the beaches and OBX Tue night/Wed morning. Friday through Saturday...Next chc for precip arrives by week's end, as next shortwave trough swings through the Ern CONUS. Latest 07/12Z model suite has trended drier however, so pops have not been raised, and remain at 20-30%. At this time, ptype looks to remain all liquid. Much colder air expected behind the front for next weekend with highs back into the 40s and lows in the 20s. && .AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 2 PM Sun... Key Messages... - Improving conditions this afternoon, but some areas of IFR ceilings will remain across the northern coastal plain - Brief improvement to VFR conditions likely this evening - IFR/LIFR ceilings and/or visibilities return tonight through tomorrow morning - IFR conditions will likely persist through most of tomorrow as rain/snow moves into the area Flying conditions have improved to MVFR/VFR in many locations across ENC, but there remains some pockets of IFR ceilings across the northern coastal plain. These areas may persist through this evening while the rest of the forecast area likely remains VFR. Tonight, skies will briefly clear or partially clear for most of the area, and the combination of slight radiational cooling and a very saturated surface layer will result in the reformation of fog, and also low stratus. Fog is likely to become very dense again across the coastal plain, and even as far east as US 17. Similar to last night, areas of very low stratus will also form, but its unclear what the predominate impact to flying conditions will be overnight and into tomorrow morning. Rain and potentially snow will be moving into ENC after sunrise tomorrow morning, and IFR conditions are likely to continue at least into the afternoon if not all day. Outlook: Sub-VFR conditions may persist Monday night before VFR conditions return through at least midweek. && .MARINE... As of 3 PM Sun... Key Messages - Strong winds and dangerous seas expected Monday and Monday night. Tonight...Generally light nrly flow cont with speeds of 5-15 kt and seas of 2-4 ft. Mon through Tue...Backdoor front passes through and strong north to northeast winds develop. Latest 07/12Z guidance has inc winds, and have expanded gales to all marine zones except for inland rivers, with winds speeds of 20-30 kt, gusting to 35 kt expected. Higher gusts up to 40 kt poss on the warmer well mixed outer waters. Seas will quickly increase to 6-10 ft Monday and continue into early Tue, subsiding below 6 ft late Tue. Wed...The break in strong winds and high seas is short-lived, as a swrly gradient inc later Wed through Wed night, with speeds of 15-25 kt expected, and 25-35 kt over the warm Gulf waters south of Oregon Inlet. Seas build back up to 6-10 ft south of Oregon Inlet. Thu through Fri...Winds and seas relax as high pres builds back into the region, with NW winds generally 5-15 kt and seas of 2-4 ft. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Winter Weather Advisory from 2 PM Monday to midnight EST Monday night for NCZ029-044-045. MARINE...Gale Warning from 1 PM to 10 PM EST Monday for AMZ131-135-150- 230-231. Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Monday to midnight EST Monday night for AMZ136-137. Gale Warning from 1 PM Monday to midnight EST Monday night for AMZ152-154-156-158. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...TL SHORT TERM...TL LONG TERM...TL AVIATION...SGK MARINE...TL ####018004750#### FXUS65 KPSR 072030 AFDPSR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 130 PM MST Sun Dec 7 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry and quiescent weather conditions will continue through at least the next 7 days. - Temperatures will steadily climb through the upcoming workweek, with highs likely reaching 8 to 12 degrees above daily normals. && .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/... The overall upper-lvl pattern is not expected to change much over the next 24 hours as dry and benign weather conditions persist across the forecast area. An unseasonably strong ridge of high pressure will remain centered over the E Pacific a few hundred miles off the coast of CA. This pattern will induce dry NW flow aloft over the Desert Southwest and keep temperatures slightly above normal with highs in the mid 70s across the lower deserts today and tomorrow. Model consensus does show a weak shortwave trough diving SE through the Great Basin region and into southcentral AZ on Monday afternoon. This will result in an increasing 700-500 mb hght gradient and drag a weak sfc front through the region. The main noticeable change in weather conditions from this shortwave will be increased breeziness across the Lower Colorado River Valley Monday afternoon and the higher terrain of southcentral AZ on Monday evening into Monday night where gusts could reach up to 20-25 mph at times. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND/... Deterministic models and ensemble members continue to be in excellent agreement that the ridge will remain stalled off the west coast of California through the middle of this coming week, keeping much of western CONUS under the influence of the eastern flank of the ridge. Multiple shortwaves will be moving from the Pacific NW/southern British Columbia down into the Plains that will temporally dampen the ridge, but, it will quickly rebound. If any of these shortwaves are able to slide into the Desert Southwest, we could see additional breeziness across SE California and the AZ high terrain. Nevertheless, regional temperatures will gradually warm to around 8-10 degrees above normal by the middle of next week. Afternoon high temperatures are forecast to reach the mid to upper 70s and near 80F in some places across the lower deserts, with highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s across the higher terrain. By the end of the week and heading into next weekend, the ridge will finally push onshore with the center of the ridge eventually moving over the Desert Southwest during the weekend. The ridge will be weakening as it moves onshore, however, with it moving directly overhead temperatures will continue to gradually warm. H5 heights will rise into the 583-586 dm range by the end of next week and heading into next weekend. This will result in afternoon high temperatures 10-12 degrees above normal and morning low temperatures 6-8 degrees above normal. For the end of next week, afternoon high temperatures are forecast to be in the upper 70s to near 80 degrees across the lower deserts and in the low to mid 70s across the higher terrain. Morning lows are forecast to be in the 50s across the lower deserts and in the 40s across the higher terrain. Additionally with the ridge continuing to dominate the region, dry and tranquil conditions will continue through at least next weekend. && .AVIATION...Updated at 1725Z. South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT; and Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: No aviation concerns are expected through Monday morning. Light winds, generally aob 7 kts will be common with extended periods of VRB to calm conditions. Besides a FEW passing high clouds to the north of the terminals, skies will be mostly clear. && .FIRE WEATHER... Warm and dry weather will prevail across the region through this coming week. Temperatures will be above normal and gradually warm to 8-12 degrees above normal by the end of the week. A brief bout of gusty winds can be expected across the Lower Colorado River Valley and AZ high terrain on Monday afternoon and evening, otherwise winds will generally remain light and follow diurnal tendencies. Humidities over the next week will stay elevated with afternoon MinRHs mostly ranging between 20-30%, followed by good to excellent overnight recoveries. && .PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AZ...None. CA...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Salerno LONG TERM...Berislavich AVIATION...RW FIRE WEATHER...Berislavich/Salerno ####018007271#### FXUS63 KLSX 072031 AFDLSX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 231 PM CST Sun Dec 7 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - A mix of very light drizzle/rain and snow is possible this evening across the Ozarks and southwest Missouri, but impactful accumulations are not expected. - A round of light accumulating snow is possible (20-60%) Thursday, but confidence is low. - While tomorrow will be chilly, much colder temperatures are expected Thursday through the weekend, particularly Saturday. && .SHORT TERM... (Through Late Monday Night) Issued at 227 PM CST Sun Dec 7 2025 It has been a brisk, gloomy day throughout the area so far today, with breezy northerly winds and persistent low level cloud cover. While there are minimal potential hazards to discuss today, we do continue to keep an eye on the potential for light drizzle/sprinkles, and perhaps even some flurries/light snow showers later this afternoon. The primary driver of this latter potential appears to be weak upslope flow thanks to northerly winds moving atop the Ozarks, along with increasing low level saturation. So far this has only amounted to persistent low clouds and perhaps some faint fog, but most CAMS have latched onto the idea of some light precipitation developing in southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois later in the afternoon and evening, roughly between 4 PM and midnight. Model soundings are somewhat varied, but all show some variation of a deep saturated layer developing in the low levels, perhaps up to about 5 to 7kft, albeit with very modest low level lift propped up a bit by upslope flow over the Ozarks. While there is some uncertainty as to whether or not this will be enough forcing alone to actually get precipitation development, there is just enough evidence to carry a mention of drizzle into the late evening hours, transitioning to light snow gradually after sunset as the profile cools enough to allow for cloud ice. Meanwhile, we will also need to keep an eye on a very limited potential for freezing drizzle, due to the fact that most model soundings (besides some CAMS) do not bring any part of the saturated layer to -10C or lower until very late in the evening. The primary concern here is that if surface temperatures cool below freezing before precipitation ends, and before cloud ice can form, then you have a recipe for a brief period of freezing drizzle/very light rain. To be clear, this is an unlikely (20% or less) worst-case scenario, and the chances of enough of this to form, stick to roads, and cause impacts are likely even lower. Meanwhile, almost all of the precipitation-producing CAMS generally transition from liquid rain directly to light snow. This is a lot of writing for something that is not likely to occur, but considering that FZDZ can be uniquely impactful when it does materialize, we felt that it was worth explaining in spite of the low probability. Overnight, steady cold air advection behind the front will slow as high pressure settles in, with morning temperatures likely dipping into the teens and 20s. Coldest temperatures are likely across northern Missouri and central Illinois, where skies are already clearing, winds will weaken, and snow cover remains. Monday is expected to be dry and cold as well, with afternoon highs only in the 30s. BRC && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Next Sunday) Issued at 227 PM CST Sun Dec 7 2025 While we will get a reprieve from these chilly temperatures Tuesday, a series of cold fronts will usher in a much colder airmass over the latter half of the week. We may also see another potential for light snow accumulations on Thursday, although confidence in the latter remains low. For the next week, the synoptic pattern will remain relatively stable across the CONUS, with a nearly stationary longwave trough across the eastern CONUS, northwest flow atop the Mississippi Valley, and a steady stream of shortwaves moving through this northwest flow. While there will be several of these waves, there are two in particular that will impact our local weather. The first of these will move through the upper Mississippi Valley Wednesday night, and it's primary impact will be to increase the pressure gradient and drive breezy southwesterly surface winds ahead of it Tuesday. Warm air advection will lead to a rapid jump in temperatures Tuesday, perhaps as much as 20 degrees higher than the day before in all areas that do not still have substantial snow cover. This would equate to highs reaching into the 50s in many areas, and perhaps as much as 5 to 10 degrees above average. On Wednesday though, a cold front will mute this warming trend, beginning a steady cooldown that will continue through the weekend. This initial front will not bring the coldest air with it just yet, though, as the second, deeper shortwave will drive the core of an arctic airmass into the area Thursday through Saturday, when the lowest temperatures are expected. While there remains some non- trivial ensemble spread in forecast temperatures, this has narrowed over the past 24 hours, and confidence is now very high that we will see temperatures dipping to around 20 to 30 degrees below average by Saturday. That equates to morning lows in the low teens to single digits almost everywhere by Saturday morning, and highs only in the teens and 20s later that afternoon. As for precipitation, the next reasonable opportunity does not arrive until Thursday when the second shortwave begins to impact the area. Even then, forecast precipitation amounts remain very light, and confidence is low to moderate that this precipitation will materialize locally (20-60% over 24 hours). However, temperatures will likely be cold enough to support snow if we do see precipitation from this system, and possibly enough to cause minor impacts if some of the higher percentile forecast amounts are closer to verifying. BRC && .AVIATION... (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Monday Afternoon) Issued at 1150 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025 The primary concern for the 18Z TAF period is the persistence of low clouds. Widespread MVFR ceilings continue to impact all local terminals at the start of the period, and this is likely to continue through the overnight hours and into at least sometime tomorrow morning, and possibly longer, for all terminals except for UIN. At UIN, the edge of the low clouds will likely pass the terminal later this afternoon, with a much earlier return to VFR conditions than the other terminals. While some brief light drizzle or even a few snow flurries will be possible in the St. Louis area late this afternoon and evening, this is more likely to remain south of STL/SUS/CPS. A few flurries are also possible at UIN overnight tonight, but this is more likely farther north. BRC && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && $$ WFO LSX ####018001598#### FXUS65 KTWC 072031 AFDTWC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 131 PM MST Sun Dec 7 2025 .SYNOPSIS...High pressure settles into the region this week. This will result in dry conditions and high temperatures warming to above normal levels through this week. && .DISCUSSION...Not a whole lot to talk about as our pattern through the forecast period is going to be dominated by high pressure aloft. This area of high pressure will build in and strengthen over the course of the week resulting in continued warming temperatures. High temperatures will peak at 11 to 15 degrees normal at the end of the week with some high temperature records having the potential to be broken. There is no indication of any significant pattern change out through 10 days with dry conditions expected to continue. && .AVIATION...Valid through 09/00Z. SKC. SFC winds WLY/NWLY 8-12 kts thru 08/04Z and again after 08/20Z, otherwise vrbl and terrain driven less than 8 kts. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...Dry conditions are expected the next 7 days. A warming trend continues through the week where highs after Tuesday will run 8 to 15 degrees above normal. 20-foot winds will generally be 15 mph or less and terrain driven through the middle of the week. Minimum RH values in the valleys 16-26 percent through the week. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson ####018007567#### FXUS63 KFGF 072032 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 232 PM CST Sun Dec 7 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - On Monday, a weak system will produce a Trace to 2 inches of snow across portions of northeastern North Dakota into northwestern MN. - A stronger storm system arrives on Tuesday, bringing a wide range of potential winter impacts from accumulating snow and mixed precipitation to high winds. - Much colder temperatures will arrive late week, with a 60% chance that wind chills drop to -30F or colder. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 232 PM CST Sun Dec 7 2025 ...Synopsis... Northwest flow remains in place over the Northern Plains. With cold air entrenched to the northeast and milder Pacific air to our west, we will remain stuck on a wavering baroclinic zone for much of the week. This will lead to an extremely active pattern, with 3 waves passing through in the next 48 hours alone. Ensembles have advertised for days that the Tuesday shortwave will be the strongest in this parade of clippers, bringing the potential for heavy snow and much stronger winds then any of the other waves. Therefore, we expect the highest winter impacts to be tied to the Tuesday system. Beyond Tuesday ensembles hint at another wave on Thursday, followed by a powerful punch of arctic air. This will result in temperatures dropping into the double digits below zero area wide, bringing what could be the first cold weather headlines of the year. ...Light Snow on Monday... A mid level shortwave located just west of our FA has resulted in a band of snow over central ND this afternoon. As we go into the evening and overnight hours, it will continue to propagate eastward, bringing light snow to much of the FA. On this shortwaves heels is yet another currently to our north in Canada. This wave will overspread the FA in a broad warm air advection regime, which will promote yet another area of light snowfall on Monday, mainly in northeastern ND into northwestern MN. When looking at the 25th to 75th percentiles, snowfall will range from a trace to 2 inches generally along and north of Highway 2, highest near the Lake of the Woods. ...Strong Tuesday System... A strong area of low pressure will form in the lee of the Canadian Rockies Monday night. With a over 100 knot jet streak, this low will rapidly deepen and dig to the southeast, tracking through the FA Tuesday into Tuesday night. Ensembles have been latched onto its general track for several days now. However, that does not mean this is a straightforward forecast. First, a period of strong warm air advection will overspread the FA Monday night into Tuesday. This will cause several forecast challenges. 1) A warm nose aloft will complicate precipitation type, especially along and south of Highway 200. This will likely lead to a period of freezing rain Tuesday morning, especially before sunrise. Ensemble probabilities for freezing rain now show a stripe from south of Devils Lake through Fargo down towards Fergus Falls. Timing wise it may impact the Tuesday morning commute, but as temperatures warm through late morning into the afternoon, impacts from freezing rain will rapidly decrease. 2) The dual combination of warm temperatures and rain/freezing rain will crust over the existing snowpack in southeastern ND/west central MN. This wrench in the forecast introduces significant uncertainty about how much blowable snow at least in the southern FA there will be once winds increase behind the cold front Tuesday evening. To the north of the low, strong synoptic forcing and a band of frontogensis look to set up an arc of accumulating snowfall. Ensembles have been consistent in outputting a stripe of QPF around 0.5", running from somewhere in the Devils Lake Basin southeastward into MN. The handful of CAMs that are now in range show slightly higher QPF totals then this, which makes sense since they should be resolving the mesoscale forcing better then their global counterparts. Assuming a lower snow to liquid ratio based on warmer sounding profiles and less residence time in the DGZ, snowfall total outputs are a broad 3 plus inches, with a stripe of 6 inches. Where exactly in the watch area this heaviest band sets up still remains uncertain. A final complicating factor is the wind. As the low propagates east and the cold front passes, winds will increase dramatically Tuesday evening. Winds will be strongest across southeastern ND. However, this is the area that will have a crusted over snowpack and receive the least new snow. Further north in the central and northern Red River Valley, there will be new snowpack sufficient to blow around, but winds will not be quite as strong, as the core of the cold air advection dives too far to the south. Winds will turn due northerly on Tuesday night, which at least in the valley should aid in keeping them elevated. In turn, predictability of visibility reductions tied to blowing snow is low at this time, as for every factor that would aid in more severe visibility reductions, there is another factor that detracts. Therefore, we have issued a winter storm watch for much of the FA from Tuesday morning through early Wednesday morning. It is a little broad, and the type of impacts at each individual point (ice vs snow vs blowing snow) remain a bit in question, but this is at least a starting point in showing what areas have the highest probability of seeing winter impacts. The handful of counties in the far south without a headline in effect will be revisited on future shifts as predictability increases, as uncertainty right now lies in if headlines will need to be geared towards winter or wind impacts, and the degree of severity (advisory vs warning) for each. ...Late Week Cold... The coldest air of the season will spill down from Canada to end the work week. NBM is already showing the probability for wind chills of -30F or lower (cold weather advisory criteria) at 60%. Uncertainty around where the deepest new snowpack will reside, cloud cover and winds will eventually determine how cold both temperatures and wind chills are able to fall. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1132 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025 Two weak systems will pass through during the TAF period, each bringing light snow. The first is currently over central ND, pushing eastward. It will arrive at KDVL late this afternoon, then pass through the Red River Valley during the evening hours. There will be a little break, before another system passes through on Monday, mostly impacting northern terminals. Ceilings will vary from VFR to start the TAF period, falling to MVFR overnight. MVFR will likely persist into Monday, but it will be a close call as ceilings will teeter on the edge of VFR at KDVL and KFAR. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...Winter Storm Watch from Tuesday morning through late Tuesday night for NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026>030-038-039-054. MN...Winter Storm Watch from Tuesday morning through late Tuesday night for MNZ001>005-007>009-013>017-022>024-027-028- 030>032. && $$ DISCUSSION...Rafferty AVIATION...Rafferty ####018010616#### FXUS61 KCLE 072034 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 334 PM EST Sun Dec 7 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will move south across the area this evening followed by high pressure building east across the region on Monday. Low pressure will move into the Upper Great Lakes on Tuesday and weaken followed by a stronger clipper system moving through the Central Great Lakes on Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... A light snow continues across northern portions of the area late this afternoon as a cold front is pushing south across the region. Temperatures at mid afternoon are near or just above freezing and road temperatures tend to be a couple degrees warmer. This will have a limiting effect on accumulations with generally a half inch or less in Northeast Ohio with locally up to an inch and a half for favored upslope areas in NW Pennsylvania. Much of this is expected on grassy or untreated elevated surfaces that may be cooler or anywhere that snow may still be falling just past sunset. Water vapor imagery shows dry air aloft already spreading west to east across the area as shortwave energy passes and the snow is really expected to wane between 6-9 PM. Flow behind the cold front will veer to north northeast and clouds will linger downwind of Lake Huron across north central Ohio, gradually shifting west with time. High pressure builds overhead Monday with partly cloudy skies and some periods of sun. High temperatures will be in the upper 20s Monday except low to mid 20s in NW Pennsylvania where thermal profiles are running a few degrees cooler. Skies start off mostly clear Monday evening and the light winds will allow temperatures to quickly fall with lows ranging from the single digits in PA to low teens in Ohio. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As the weekend trough pulls away, a series of shortwave troughs will move through the northwest flow aloft towards the Great Lakes Region. The first low pressure system will reach the Upper Great Lakes on Tuesday. A 50+ knot low level jet will overspread the area on Tuesday morning with warm advection increasing. Although it may take some time for the low levels to saturate, some light snow is expected to develop across northeastern portions of the area. Minor accumulation of a dusting to an inch are possible with temperatures trending warmer. Southwesterly winds will also be breezy as we attempt to mix into the stronger flow aloft. Inversion heights will likely be 2000 feet or higher and expect to see wind gusts of 30-40 mph as the warm front lifts north during the late morning and early afternoon. Chances of precipitation decrease Tuesday evening with dry air aloft and weak ridging at the surface before a stronger clipper system approaches the area Wednesday morning. While some spread exists between solutions, a 988 mb surface low is forecast to cross southern Lake Michigan early Wednesday. The surface pressure gradient tightens and a near 60 knot low level jet moves overhead, but mixing depths are expected to be very shallow at 1000 feet or less with 850mb temperatures around 0 C in the warm sector. Windy conditions still expected but wind gusts may take until the cold front arrives from the northwest late in the afternoon to really increase. The GFS shows a compact trough from the surface to 700mb swinging southeast across the area and wind gusts of 40 mph or higher could accompany this secondary push of cold air. We will tend to be on the warm side of this clipper initially with precipitation arriving as rain or quickly transitioning to rain in the pre- dawn hours of Wednesday. Rain will be the primary precipitation type into early afternoon before starting to mix with or transition back over to snow on Wednesday afternoon. The upper level trough axis is east of the area by Thursday morning but some differences exist in mid-range models on how quickly the trough pulls away. This may result in a loss of deep moisture on Wednesday night but in general expect to see lake effect snow showers develop in a northwest flow regime. It is too far far out to have a handle on accumulations but light to moderate lake effect snows are possible as 850mb temperatures fall to -10 to -12C. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... The long term forecast begins with a broad longwave trough in place across the eastern United States. Another piece of energy dives south from the arctic, likely bringing the coldest air of the season. Temperatures at 850mb look to fall to around -18C west of the Great Lakes and possibly maintaining temperatures near that cold across Lake Erie. While differences in model spread exist, all long range models have a very cold airmass overhead next weekend with good potential for lake effect snows in the northwesterly flow. How quickly the trough pulls away will impact how much snow is possible in the primary and secondary snowbelt next weekend and could see some lighter snow amounts area wide with the cold front. There is high confidence in below normal temperatures through next weekend and may remain below 30 degrees through the entire long term forecast. By Sunday, some areas may not even reach 20 degrees. && .AVIATION /18Z Sunday THROUGH Friday/... A band of light snow is impacting Northwest Ohio and points east-northeast near Lake Erie and into Northwest PA as of 18z. Due to small flake size, this otherwise very light snow is effectively reducing vsby to IFR, with low MVFR to IFR ceilings also observed under the snow. Conditions are in a higher MVFR to VFR range farther southeast at MFD, CAK, and YNG where it is not yet snowing, and quickly improve to MVFR and eventually VFR behind the back edge of the snow in MI. Expect a period of lower vsby (likely IFR) and ceilings (IFR to low MVFR) to sweep east- southeast across CLE, CAK, and YNG over the next few hours. Meanwhile, expect TOL and FDY to begin improving over the next few hours, with improvement continuing to the southeast after 0z as the snow dissipates/exits. Am expecting limited lake effect snow to flow south-southwest off of Lake Erie through early Monday, probably just some flurries but could locally maintain some MVFR ceilings. All will continue improving to VFR on Monday as lingering lake effect clouds dissipate as high pressure briefly builds in. Light winds this afternoon will increase out of the north at 7-13 knots this evening, with some 20kt gusts near the lake. Winds gradually shift more east-northeast at 5-10kt overnight tonight into Monday. Outlook...Non-VFR is expected again with snow on Tuesday which will gradually transition to rain by Wednesday morning. Rain will transition back over to snow Wednesday evening through Thursday. Gusty winds are likely Tuesday and Wednesday. && .MARINE... Light northwest winds this afternoon will quickly shift northerly and increase to 15-25 knots this evening, then gradually shift more east-northeasterly through tonight and into Monday. Winds will remain elevated at 15-20kt through tonight before decreasing more on Monday, falling below 15kt across the entire lake by late morning. Waves will increase to 2-5 feet this evening and persist through early Monday before subsiding to 1-3 feet by late Monday morning. Small Craft Advisories remain as posted east of the Islands for this evening and tonight, expiring at 7 AM Monday east of Geneva-on-the- Lake and at 10 AM to the west. Sustained winds may briefly reach 20kt in the western basin this evening, though the duration of any advisory-level conditions is expected to be too brief to expand the advisory west of the Islands. Winds will continue gradually veering to an east and then southeast direction at <15kt through Monday. Rough marine conditions are expected late Monday night through Wednesday night. An initial weaker low pressure will track through the northern Great Lakes on Tuesday, lifting a warm front across Lake Erie. Winds will shift south-southeast to south-southwest and increase to 15-25kt late Monday night into early Tuesday as the warm front crosses the lake. South-southwest winds will peak at 25-35kt during the day Tuesday, with 30-60% confidence in marginally reaching gale-force winds across the central and eastern portions of the lake. There is some question on how well the very strong winds aloft will mix down in a warm advection (upglide) regime on Tuesday, which leads to the medium confidence in reaching a gale. Winds remain south-southwest and lull slightly (to 20-30kt) Tuesday evening/night. Stronger low pressure tracks through the central Great Lakes late Tuesday night through Wednesday, pushing a cold front across the lake Wednesday afternoon. Southwest winds increase to 30-40kt ahead of the front late Tuesday night into Wednesday, before shifting northwest at 25-35kt late Wednesday and gradually subsiding Wednesday night as low pressure exits. Confidence in gales on Wednesday is higher given the involvement of a cold front, stronger winds aloft, and generally stronger low pressure...at 20- 40% in the western basin and 50-80%+ across the central and eastern basin. A Low Water Advisory will be needed Tuesday into Wednesday for the western basin as we get closer. Gale Watches will be issued within the next couple of forecast cycles for at least the central and eastern basins...given somewhat lower confidence in reaching gales on Tuesday and a brief lull Tuesday evening held off on starting gale headlines for now, though they are coming. After a brief period of quieter conditions Thursday into early Friday, another period of stronger west-northwest winds is likely Friday or Saturday behind a strong cold front which will usher in Arctic air for the weekend. More headlines will be needed... && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Monday for LEZ144>147. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Monday for LEZ148-149. && $$ SYNOPSIS...10 NEAR TERM...10 SHORT TERM...10 LONG TERM...10 AVIATION...Sullivan MARINE...Sullivan ####018005804#### FXUS63 KGID 072034 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 234 PM CST Sun Dec 7 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered snow showers will quickly track east across the area (mainly north of I-80) between 3-9 PM today, little to no accumulation is expected. - Temperatures climb back above normal on Monday and Tuesday with highs 45-55 Monday and 55-65 Tuesday. - Fire Weather: It will be a little breezy on Tuesday (westerly gusts 20-25 mph) with lower RH values (25-35%), so will keep an eye on fire weather (mainly west/southwest of Tri-Cities) - Progressively colder weather returns Wednesday onwards, as a series of clipper systems move through the area. Light snow (generally <1") is possible (20-40%) Wednesday night and again around Thursday night. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 130 PM CST Sun Dec 7 2025 The pattern of quick moving clipper systems coming out of the northwest will continue. This will generally result in a roller coaster of temperatures and a few chances for mainly light snow (<1"). Rest of the Afternoon into Tonight... Clouds have really hung around today and have resulted in slightly lower temperatures than earlier forecast. Thus far through 2 PM these have generally been shallow low clouds and there has been no precipitation. However, we expect deeper saturation and a thicker cloud deck to move across the area from west to east mainly north of I-80 between 3-9 PM. Forecast models indicate that this will quickly swing a broken band of snow across our northern zones (north of I-80), likely lasting less than 1 hour at any one location and dropping mainly trace amounts of snowfall, but can not rule out an isolated 1/2" of snow. If you are south of I-80 you are looking at just a few flurries if anything this evening. The 18Z HRRR has a very slight patchy fog signal mainly across our southwestern zones with the wind becoming light overnight and the clouds clearing out. Have not added this into the forecast yet, but evening shift may want to keep an eye on future model runs and see which way this trends. Monday... As mentioned above, there is that slight chance (20%) for patchy fog early Monday morning and then southwest to westerly winds work to warm us up through the day. The NBM in the Tri- Cities indicates good confidence in high temperatures mainly clustered between the upper 40s to lower 50s. Tuesday... This is looking like a Top 3 December day with good NBM confidence indicated by a narrow model spread of highs in the upper 50s to around 60 in the Tri-Citites to the lower 60s southwest of the Tri-Cities. It could be a little breezy with westerly wind gusts of 20 to 25 mph. Will also have to keep an eye on fire weather conditions as dewpoints will be a little lower, but RH values will mainly be in the 30-40% range for most areas, far western zones could see RH values fall into the upper 20s Tuesday afternoon. Wednesday through Friday... We'll have a little vort max (weak system) moving through our area within the overall northwesterly flow regime. This could bring some light snow to our forecast area as early as late afternoon on Wednesday, but more likely Wednesday night. At this point we are only talking about 20-40% chances of light snowfall accumulation (<1") across Nebraska counties. Then we get another little wave Thursday night into Friday morning that could (20%) bring another round of light snow (<1"). Looking at dozens of ensembles through this period (Wed-Fri), it appears that the probability of getting more than 1" of snow is currently 20% or less. This could change, but right now it just looks like a little very light snow and colder conditions. We just get progressively colder with additional pushes of cold air, mainly 40s on Wednesday, more folks in the 30s by Thursday, and then mainly 20s by Friday and maybe even a few teens for highs across our northeast on Friday. I should note that the model temperature spread in the Tri-Cities is pretty high Thursday (32-44F) and Friday (12-24F) with our current forecast closer to the higher end temperatures on Friday so these forecast temperatures could be coming down if current trends hold. Next Weekend... At this point, next weekend looks cold and dry. However, there is a large model temperature spread of over 20 degrees between the 25th and 75th percentile on Sunday's high temperatures (19-42F). So not much confidence in next weekend's temperature forecast yet, just too far out. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1150 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025 For KGRI/KEAR Airports: Low clouds have persisted longer than NBM was indicating and thus adjusted the TAF to be more pessimistic, keeping low clouds around until a few hours after sunset. However, would not be surprised if low clouds persist even longer through the late evening hours. We will probably see some back and forth between IFR and lower end MVFR ceilings through this evening. There is pretty good model agreement that the clouds should eventually scatter out overnight with mostly clear skies currently expected on Monday. We are not expecting any accumulating snow through the period, but can not rule out a few flurries right around sunset. The wind will remain light and variable through early evening and then mainly light southerly winds by late evening and overnight. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Wesely AVIATION...Wesely