####018005452#### FXUS61 KOKX 130225 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 1025 PM EDT Sun May 12 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure remains in the area overnight through Monday. A warm front will pass to the north Monday afternoon and night. Low pressure will then bring rain to the area for mid week. Another low pressure system may impact the region next weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... An upper trough was moving offshore as weak upper ridging was building to the west, near the eastern Great Lakes region. Low level moisture across the interior was beginning to dissipate with weak subsidence. And showers across southeastern New England were also dissipating with the trough moving to the east. Low temps tonight will range from near 50 in NYC to the 40s elsewhere. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/... Rising heights aloft and sfc high pressure should lead to a milder day on Mon, with highs reaching the lower 70s in NE NJ and rising into the 60s elsewhere on a S flow, with sea breeze enhancement along the coast during the afternoon. A shortwave trough riding atop the upper ridge associated with a warm front passing to the north should bring an increase in clouds and may trigger some late day end evening showers mainly inland, followed by clearing skies later Mon night. With the area in the warm sector lows Mon night should range from the upper 40s across SE CT and parts of eastern Long Island, to the 50s elsewhere. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... An upr low emerging onto the Plains will traverse the country and reach the local area by the middle of the week. Height falls as early as Tue aftn could trigger a few shwrs, particularly nwrn zones, along with a chc of tstms as well. As a weak sfc low approaches Tue ngt and passes offshore on Wed, a more stratiform rain is expected, with the CWA on the nrn and wrn side of the low. Robust convection to the south could rob some of the moisture, but blended probs are high for pcpn, and moisture transport vectors do show at least some deeper moisture advecting in. Sly flow will moderate temps on Tue, especially the ern 2/3 of the cwa, then flow comes around to the NE behind the low on Wed. Temps lower on Wed with the rain and clouds, then a E-NE flow remains locked in right thru next weekend. Cooler temps Long Island and the immediate CT coast. The NBM was used for temps. There are some model timing differences on Thu with the ECMWF slower to eject the upr low. The GFS has ridging building in quickly and a dry day. Stuck with the blended approach and only have slight chcs in the fcst. Dry on Fri with weak high pres along the E coast, then the next sys arrives for the weekend. There remain timing differences, with the GFS continuing to be the quicker moving sys, similar to the model runs 24 hours ago. The NBM was followed, with the best chcs remaining on Sat. && .AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Weak high pressure builds over the terminals through the overnight before pushing offshore on Monday. Generally VFR. MVFR is possible at KSWF late tonight into early Monday morning, with IFR possible at KHPN. Winds remain light S-SW, to locally light and variable through the overnight, with winds becoming southerly and increasing Monday afternoon, Gusts develop during the afternoon, peaking late in the day, with gusts 15 to 20kt. Stronger winds with sea breeze enhancement likely at KJFK. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... Gusts Monday afternoon may be more occasional. And sustained winds at KJFK may be a few knots higher, especially late in the day. OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... Monday Night: VFR. Tuesday: Mainly VFR. Chance of showers late. MVFR or lower possible in mainly afternoon showers. S wind gusts 15-20kt near the coast late. Tuesday night: MVFR or lower in showers. S wind gusts 15-20kt near the coast in the evening. Wednesday: MVFR or lower likely in showers. Slight chance of a thunderstorm. Wednesday night: Chance of showers with improvement to VFR possible. NE wind gusts 15-20kt. Thursday: Mainly VFR. NE wind gusts 20 kt possible. Friday: VFR. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 && .MARINE... Seas remain under 5 feet on the ocean waters overnight. A better chance for more widespread 5-ft seas will come late day Mon into Mon evening as S flow ramps up to 15-20 kt. Mrgnl SCA winds and seas also possible on the ocean Tue with S flow, then 4-8 ft seas on the ocean Wed. Winds on the protected waters are progged to remain blw SCA lvls attm. Lingering seas and NE winds close to SCA lvls on the ocean Thu, and mrgnl winds elsewhere. Winds and seas blw SCA lvls Fri and possibly on Sat. && .HYDROLOGY... No hydrologic impacts expected. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMC/BG NEAR TERM...JMC/BG/MET SHORT TERM...BG LONG TERM...JMC AVIATION...MET MARINE...JMC/BG/MET HYDROLOGY...JMC/BG ####018007052#### FXUS61 KALY 130227 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 1027 PM EDT Sun May 12 2024 .SYNOPSIS... An upper level low will depart the region tonight with rain showers ending along with partial clearing. Warmer weather returns early this week with continued chances for some showers and possible thunderstorms each day through midweek. Drier and seasonable weather may return for late week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... .Update...As of 10:25 PM EDT...Upper low is now located east of Cape Cod with upper ridging and mid-level drying building in from the west based on latest GOES 16 WV imagery. Accordingly, we have seen quite a bit of clearing across most of our CWA, although some mid-level clouds continue to linger from the southern ADKs into southern VT. With this clearing, temperatures have dropped quickly for areas where winds have gone calm, so bumped temperatures down slightly in some of these sheltered ares. Otherwise, last few showers in Washington County and southern VT should diminish over the next hour or two. Patchy fog is still expected to develop overnight with weak winds, moist ground conditions from the recent rain, and partly to mostly clear skies. Fog could become locally dense in a few areas as we head towards sunrise, but should quickly mix out once the sun comes up tomorrow morning. Otherwise, previous forecast remains in good shape with more details in the previous discussion below. .Previous...Rising upper-level heights and surface high pressure strengthening to our east will bring an end to showers this evening with some partial clearing overnight, which may provide some viewing conditions for tonight's aurora. Visit the Space Weather Prediction Center website for more information. Some patchy fog may also develop along some of the river valleys where the more persistent clearing occurs. Lows will fall back into the upper 30s to mid-40s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Dry weather will start the day on Monday with surface high pressure located just off the East Coast and flat upper-level ridging overhead. Some weak upper-level energy will track over the ridge late Monday morning through Monday night as a surface warm front approaches from the south and west. This will result in an increase in clouds and shower chances for Monday afternoon and Monday evening. Areas along and north of I-90 remain favored for this activity with decreasing chances farther south. Enough weak instability may be in place for a few rumbles of thunder. Monday will turn out to be a milder day with highs in the 60s to lower 70s. The warm front and best upper forcing will lift northward toward the St. Lawrence River later Monday night as upper-level heights begin to rise. This will also cause the shower activity to lift north of our region by later Monday night with a brief period of dry weather into Tuesday morning. A warm air advection regime will result in a milder night with lows in the upper 40s to mid-50s. A progressive positively tilted upper-level trough is expected to track from the Missouri Valley to the mid-Atlantic coast Tuesday through Wednesday. Upper-level forcing returns Tuesday afternoon and night as a cold front approaches from the west. Widespread showers and a few thunderstorms are expected with our region placed in the warm sector of this system. Tuesday may turn out fairly warm prior to the arrival of rainfall with highs reaching the mid to upper 70s except upper 60s to lower 70s across the higher elevations. The cold front will slow its forward progress across the region on Wednesday as a low pressure system tracks northeastward just ahead of the front from the central Appalachians to the mid- Atlantic coast. This will bring continued rain chances through Wednesday with highs reaching the 60s to near 70. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... The upper-level trough and surface low pressure system should depart the region to the east by later Wednesday night and Thursday as upper- level ridging and surface high pressure return. This will result in a drying trend for the later part of the week. Guidance then begins to diverge on the weather pattern heading into next weekend but it appears a return to unsettled weather is possible. We ran with the NBM pops during this time which bring them back into the chance range. Highs most days during the long term period will be in the 60s and 70s with lows in the 40s and 50s. && .AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Through 00z Tuesday...Currently seeing VFR conditions at all TAF sites which should continue through around midnight. Will see a trend for decreasing cloud cover during this timeframe, with cloud heights of around 3000-4000 ft. With the partial clearing, light winds, and wet ground conditions from today's rain, patchy fog is expected to form tonight. Low confidence on the exact start time of fog, but highest probabilities for IFR or lower vsbys/cigs is from 8-11z at GFL/PSF. ALB/POU could certainly see IFR or lower conditions if fog develops, but confidence is lower at these sites especially since they saw less rain yesterday. Any fog should quickly burn off by 12z tomorrow morning. There could be a few clouds between 3000-4000 ft for a few hours between 12-15z tomorrow as the low-level moisture mixes out, but the general expectation is for VFR cigs and vsbys from 12z through mid afternoon. Another approaching upper disturbance and warm front will bring another chance for showers tomorrow afternoon and evening. Will handle this wit prob30 groups for MVFR vsbys/cigs in showers. VFR conditions still expected outside of any showers tomorrow afternoon. Winds will be at 5 kt or less from the south tonight, increasing to 5-10 kt from the south/southeast at ALB/GFL and 5-10 kt from the south/southwest at POU/PSF by mid-morning tomorrow and continuing through the end of the TAF period. A few gusts to around 15-20 kt are possible at ALB and PSF tomorrow afternoon. Outlook... Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Tuesday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA. Wednesday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA. Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Rathbun NEAR TERM...Main/Rathbun SHORT TERM...Rathbun LONG TERM...Rathbun AVIATION...Main ####018002703#### FXUS62 KKEY 130228 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1028 PM EDT Sun May 12 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 912 PM EDT Sun May 12 2024 Currently - A sloppy surface high stretches from Mid-Atlantic states to north of the eastern Bahamas. This along with day time heating has resulted in a weak pressure field across the Keys area and brought about light mostly east to southeasterly breezes. Meanwhile, zonal flow is in place through the mid and upper levels while a west to east lower level ridge stretches across our broader area. This evenings sounding indicated a good amount of moisture with precipitable water around 1.7 inches and surface dew points in the mid 70s. However, a couple of important subsidence inversion and associated drier layers, the lowest of which is based around 950 mb, has squashed shower development across the broader area. There has even been a dearth of stratocumulus. Short Term Update - Winds will firm up slightly out of the east to southeast through the overnight period. This will be due the dissipating effects of day time heating over Florida and the previously mentioned surface high strengthening slightly. No change is expected in the overall synoptic makeup driving our weather. Stable conditions, thanks to the inversions, should prevail despite some suggestion by guidance that lower level lift and boundary layer moisture may increase slightly. The warm season is definitely here with overnight lows to be near 80 despite the lackluster flow. Dew points will remain in the mid 70s, for now. && .MARINE... Issued at 912 PM EDT Sun May 12 2024 A weak ridge stretching southeastward from the eastern United States, along with dissipating day time heating, will result in winds becoming more uniformly east to southeast and strengthening slightly. With that said, winds will remain light to gentle and virtually no changes made in the evening marine update. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 912 PM EDT Sun May 12 2024 VFR conditions will prevail at the island terminals through the overnight period. Surface winds will be light and broadly easterly to start, but strengthen slightly out of the east to southeast through the night. && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...11 Aviation/Nowcasts....11 Data Acquisition.....JAM Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest