####018003579#### FXUS63 KUNR 261050 AFDUNR Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY National Weather Service Rapid City SD 450 AM MDT Fri Apr 26 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Patchy areas of fog may develop over the western SD plains this morning. - Widespread rain expected today through much of the weekend. - Warm and dry conditions move in early next week. && .DISCUSSION...(Today Through Thursday) Issued at 159 AM MDT Fri Apr 26 2024 Current Water Vapor and upper air models show upper ridge over the great lakes and midwest regions, while upper low sits over northeastern CO this morning. At the surface, low pressure sits over the MT/ND border, with cold front running southwest through Wyoming. Skies are partly to mostly cloudy, with light winds. Temperatures currently sit in the mid 40s to low 50s. Current radar shows showers over much of south central SD. Ample moisture coupled with light winds may allow for some areas of fog to develop in the western SD plains this morning. Active weather continues over the weekend, as multiple waves move through the region. Upper low will swing into Nebraska today and up towards MN early Saturday. Current modes have progged the track a bit more east compared to previous runs. As such, higher QPF amounts have also shifted east. Northwesterly flow on the backside of the flow will allow for some stronger downslope winds over the central foothills today. The northwest flow coupled with cloud cover and moisture will make for a cooler day, with highs in the mid 50s to mid 60s. Wrap-around moisture allow showers/storms to fill into the region through this morning and afternoon. 24hr prob of 1"+ rain for this first system sit around the 40 to 60% range for the Black Hills and foothills, while areas to the east along and south of I-90 climb into the 60 to 80% range. Cooler air moves into the region for the rest of the weekend, with highs in the 40s and 50s for Sat/Sun. Second system swings into the region from the southwest later half of Saturday into Sunday, bringing another round of precipitation. Models show a bit less moisture with this second wave, and with a similar track to the first, the higher QPF amounts are progged in south central SD. The higher elevation Black Hills could see some very light snow Saturday night into Sunday, but little to no accumulations are expected. System exits the right late Sunday into Monday morning, and quasi-zonal flow sets up over the region. Temps will rebound to above normal quickly, reaching back into the 60s Monday. Weaker upper low treks across the Canada/US border Monday night into Tuesday, brining chances for showers/storms across the Black Hills and northwestern SD. Mild ridge builds into the Rockies and northern plains behind this low, allowing for a dry Tues/Weds before another system treks through the northern plains later next week. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS Through 12Z Saturday Morning) Issued At 447 AM MDT Fri Apr 26 2024 Widespread MVFR/local IFR conditions expected through the day for much of western South Dakota with numerous showers/scattered thunderstorms. Areas of LIFR visibility in fog will also persist through the morning across northwestern South Dakota. Mainly VFR conditions expected over northeastern Wyoming. && .UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. WY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...Dye AVIATION...7 ####018006134#### FXUS61 KPHI 261051 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 651 AM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure moves offshore today. A warm front attached to low pressure over the Great Lakes moves by Saturday. Highs pressure returns for Sunday and into next week. Another low and front arrives for Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... High pressure is centered over northern New England and southern Quebec early this morning, with a light pressure gradient over our region. Temperatures bottomed near freezing in much of the area so will allow the frost/freeze headlines to continue as scheduled until their 9AM expiration. Otherwise, looks like a dry and mostly sunny day as the high very slowly drifts eastward through the day. The sun should allow rapid warming but the light southeasterly to easterly flow on the south side of the high will limit the climb in temps especially close to the ocean. Overall expect highs in the 60s inland to 50s near the coast. Tonight should stay mostly clear, but the easterly flow likely moistens up the low levels just enough that, when combined with some approaching high clouds ahead of a warm front and the warmer start plus warm advection aloft, should limit the drop. Might need some frost headlines but think another widespread freeze is off the table... possibly for the rest of the season? We'll see, but either way, milder than tonight. Lows mostly 30s to low 40s. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... A transition to early summer readings Saturday and Sunday. An upper ridge will build across the area thru the period and as this happens, low pressure moves by to the north, bringing a warm front thru on Saturday. There will be plenty of clouds along the frontal boundary, increasing through the day and into the overnight period. The high elevations of the Poconos and NW New Jersey could see an isolated light shower during the day, but the best chance for showers (20-30%) will be along the I-78 corridor and points north. Mild and dry weather will be around for Sunday. Following the warm front, a deep southerly flow will arrive over the area, so increasing warmth and humidity is expected. Highs Sunday will be in the upper 70s/low 80s in most spots, but cooler near the shore and up across the Poconos. A mild night expected as well with lows only reaching the mid 50s to around 60. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Very warm temperatures for late spring will remain in place as the upper ridge starts out across the eastern US to start off the work week. High temperatures will likely be the warmest thus far this season with much of the region reaching the low to mid 80s! Gradually, this ridge weakens and allows more scattered shortwave energy to arrive across the area. For Tuesday and into Wednesday, a cold front will approach the area and then wash out as it moves through. Some scattered showers and thunderstorms will certainly be possible, mainly Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night, but overall probabilities remain around the 25-45% range. Another system will approach the region Thursday, though there remains quite a bit of model spread in timing and evolution. Sticking close to our consensus blend, leaving a 20-30% chance for showers. Temperatures remain above average in the mid 70s to low 80s through Thursday. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas... Through today...VFR. East to southeast winds increasing to near 5-10 kts. High confidence. Tonight...VFR. East to southeast winds dropping to 5 kts or less. High confidence. Outlook... Saturday through Monday...VFR prevail. A few moments of sub-VFR conditions possible Saturday night as a warm front pushes through with scattered showers. Otherwise, a dry forecast. Tuesday...VFR to start with sub-VFR conditions potentially arriving in the afternoon and evening with the arrival of a weak cold front. && .MARINE... Seas are diminishing and should be in the 2-4 foot range through tonight with an east to southeast wind around 10 kts with gusts up to 15 kts. Fair weather. Outlook... Saturday through Tuesday... Winds and seas will remain below SCA criteria through the period. Fair weather expected. && .FIRE WEATHER... RH values will be in the 25-30% range today. However, with winds so low, around 10 MPH or less, the threat for the rapid spread of wildfire remains low. The morning shift will take another look and coordinate with partners to see if any statements are needed. && .CLIMATE... A record low was tied at Trenton this morning. Elsewhere, temperatures remained above the records as of just before 7AM. ABE/Allentown 30 in 2001/1967/1934 ACY/Atlantic City Airport 28 in 1967 55N/Atlantic City Marina 34 in 1883 GED/Georgetown 30 in 1964 MPO/Mount Pocono 18 in 1919 PHL/Philadelphia 35 in 1967/1919 RDG/Reading 27 in 1972 TTN/Trenton 33 in 1919 ILG/Wilmington 32 in 1919 && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for PAZ070-071. Freeze Warning until 9 AM EDT this morning for PAZ060>062- 101>106. NJ...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for NJZ014-023. Freeze Warning until 9 AM EDT this morning for NJZ001-007>010- 012-013-015>022-027. DE...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for DEZ001>003. MD...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for MDZ012-015-019- 020. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...OHara/RCM NEAR TERM...RCM SHORT TERM...MJL/OHara LONG TERM...MJL/OHara AVIATION...MJL/RCM MARINE...MJL/RCM FIRE WEATHER...RCM CLIMATE...RCM ####018004845#### FXUS62 KILM 261052 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 652 AM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build in from the north through Saturday with dry weather expected. A warming trend will develop early next week as the high shifts to off the southeast US coast. && .UPDATE... Updated temperatures this morning as a significant gradient exists behind a surge of low clouds and cool air advection. Expect clouds to hang around through late morning (possibly into the early afternoon). Additional changes were minor. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Quiet weather continues through tonight with high pressure off of the New England coast. Onshore flow will continue today and should keep coastal areas cool with help from low clouds this morning. High sun angles and thin low clouds should break inland by late morning for a mostly sunny afternoon. Coastal areas may take longer to see sunshine, but partly cloudy skies should dominate the afternoon. Mostly clear tonight with overnight lows in the low and mid 50s. Easterly winds maintain 5-10 mph. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... High pressure off of the Mid-Atlantic coast on Sat will shift southward to off of the Southeast coast by Sun night. At the same time, mid to upper ridge will build up the east coast. Will see a mix of some low clouds and higher clouds mainly associated with moisture convergence in low level onshore flow and weak coastal trough plus minor perturbation in the flow aloft riding over the ridge Sat night into Sun morning. May even see some spotty showers, but not including any pcp chances for now. By late Sunday, the high shifts a bit further off the coast with a southerly return flow developing. Temps in the mid 70s on Sat will push 80 on Sun. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As sfc high shifts farther off the Southeast coast winds will become more S to SW Mon into midweek as ridge aloft remains in place up the east coast. Will see plenty of sunshine on Mon and Tues with temps continuing to warm into midweek as greater westerly component to the flow develops. Expect temps above 80 and into the mid to upper 80s Wed and Thurs. A shortwave will move through Tues night with mainly some clouds before ridge builds back in again Wed and Thurs with further height rises and then another shortwave approaches late Thurs. May see enough moisture combining with local effects to produce a few shwrs midweek, but better chc will come late Thurs into Fri ahead of a cold front. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... MVFR in warmer air to the south and IFR in cooler air to the north. Low clouds and CIGs will continue for much of this morning. Typical with NE flow, low clouds are slow to dissipate and that is expected today. Sun angles and deeper mixing should scour the low clouds by late morning inland and early afternoon along the coast, becoming VFR at all terminals. Maturing boundary layer to produce afternoon cumulus; areas near the coast could see brief MVFR CIGs as LCLs hover around 3k ft AGL. Onshore winds today veer gradually throughout the day at 10-15 knots. VFR tonight as E winds continue, but weaken. Extended Outlook...Predominately VFR expected through early next week outside of a chance of morning fog this weekend. && .MARINE... Through Friday night...A NE surge is currently pushing through the nearshore waters. Sub-SCA conditions are being observed at nearshore buoys and coastal reporting stations. Gusts around 20 are expected this morning and gusts up to 25 knots are possible through the evening. Remaining below SCA thresholds even as seas increase to 4-5 feet. Some improvement is expected late tonight as the gradient begins to relax, remaining choppy however. Saturday through Tuesday...Onshore flow will continue through much of the weekend with winds veering from more of a NE flow to the E and then SE by Sun, running in the 10 to 15 kt range but diminishing into Sun. The afternoon sea breeze should keep winds higher each afternoon into late day closer to the coast. Seas will start out 3 to 4 ft but will diminish to 2 to 4 ft by Sun, dropping below 3 ft by Mon as winds shift around to more of a SW to W flow with a greater offshore component to the flow. A longer period easterly swell will mix in. No headlines are expected through the period. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ILM UPDATE...21 NEAR TERM...21 SHORT TERM...RGZ LONG TERM...RGZ AVIATION...21 MARINE...RGZ/21 ####018004811#### FXUS62 KTAE 261052 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 652 AM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024 ...New AVIATION... .NEAR TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 250 AM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024 Mid-level ridge builds over the region today and tonight while at the surface, an expansive area of surface high pressure builds over the eastern third of the country. With the ridge overhead, expect warmer temperatures in the mid to upper 80s. Surface winds will switch to become southeasterly this afternoon and overnight as surface high pressure noses in from the east and northeast. Rain chances are near zero this afternoon but with the easterly flow developing, weak convergence along the Gulf and Atlantic seabreeze this afternoon could generate a brief shower, mostly along the I-75 corridor, but limited instability and moisture should prevent any thunderstorms from occurring. For tonight easterly flow continues and as we typically can see in easterly flow regimes, we'll likely see an increase in winds tonight over area waters as the Atlantic seabreeze surges west overnight. && .SHORT TERM... (Saturday through Sunday night) Issued at 250 AM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024 Upper-level ridging will dominate the local area through this weekend. This will lead to large scale subsidence with surface high pressure remaining locked in place. Dry conditions will prevail with highs generally in the mid 80s and overnight lows generally in the 60s. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Thursday) Issued at 250 AM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024 Upper level ridging will remain in place through much of the period. By the middle of next week, some flattening of the ridge is possible, but no significant systems are expected to affect the local area. Thus, dry weather is expected to continue. Afternoon highs will generally be in the 80s and possibly near 90 by the middle of next week. Overnight lows will generally be in the 60s. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 651 AM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024 MVFR/IFR conditions at ECP/TLH will persist for the next hour or two due to fog but VFR conditions should prevail at all TAFs after 15z. Southeasterly winds around 5 to 10 knots are expected with partly cloudy skies expected. && .MARINE... Issued at 250 AM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024 Winds are expected to become east to southeast today and continue into the weekend. A tightening pressure gradient is expected to lead to cautionary to advisory level conditions for the weekend. The strongest winds are likely to be in the overnight and early morning hours with easterly surges. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 250 AM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024 A pattern change is expected through today and into the upcoming weekend. While warm and dry conditions will remain in place, surface high pressure filling into the region will bring widespread east and southeasterly flow. With high mixing heights and winds around 5 to 10 mph through the weekend dispersions will be on the higher end through the weekend. While fire concerns remain low, many locations have not seen significant wetting rains in the last 2 weeks and with high dispersions, fire concerns in localized areas could become elevated, especially into next week as little to no rainfall is forecast. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 250 AM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024 Little to no rain is forecast for the next several days. Minor flooding continues along the middle and lower Suwannee and the Aucilla Rivers. The Aucilla continues to fall and should exit flood stage tonight. On the Suwannee, the minor flood wave will continue moving downstream over the next several days with Luraville expected to exit flood stage on Saturday. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 87 65 84 64 / 0 0 0 0 Panama City 82 67 82 67 / 0 0 0 0 Dothan 87 65 84 64 / 0 0 0 0 Albany 87 64 83 62 / 10 0 0 0 Valdosta 87 64 84 63 / 10 0 0 0 Cross City 87 63 85 61 / 0 0 0 0 Apalachicola 77 68 77 68 / 0 0 0 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...Dobbs SHORT TERM...DVD LONG TERM....DVD AVIATION...Dobbs MARINE...DVD FIRE WEATHER...Dobbs HYDROLOGY...DVD