####018003579#### FXUS65 KFGZ 160759 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 1259 AM MST Sun Aug 16 2026 .SYNOPSIS...Isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms, along with warming temperatures are expected through early next week. && .DISCUSSION...Today...Limited moisture across much of northern Arizona will keep the threat for storms today fairly low. Much like yesterday, coverage looks to remain fairly isolated, and generally focused over the higher terrain. A weak wave does look to move up the Colorado River Valley today, which may help to promote a little more coverage across western Arizona given the added upward motion. Some brief heavy downpours and Gusty outflow winds will be the main threats from any stronger storm that develops today. Monday and Tuesday...High pressure slowly begins to retrograde and strengthen over the southwest through the coming week. Warming temperatures ensue across northern Arizona as a result, with afternoon highs returning to near-normal to slightly (~5F) above normal. With monsoonal moisture still in place, precipitation chances look to still continue into the the start of the week. However, as the ridge strengthens, afternoon convection will be suppressed. Therefore, much of the activity looks to remain isolated in nature and mainly over the higher terrain. The best chances each day will mainly be from the eastern Mogollon Rim into the White Mountains. Wednesday through Saturday...By the later half of the week, the high begins to move into a more favorable position as it wobbles around the southwest. Guidance is still a little shaky on the exact positioning and strength of the high, so some uncertain in exact coverage and locations remains. Nevertheless, coverage does look to tick back upwards by the end of the week. && .AVIATION...Sunday 16/06Z through Monday 17/06Z...Mostly VFR conditions expected, with MVFR possible near isolated showers and thunderstorms, mainly in the afternoon to early evening hours. Shower/storm coverage remained limited to the higher terrain, with the best chances around the White Mountains, with storms beginning around 18-22Z, and ending shortly after 03Z. Winds light and variable or terrain driven overnight, with SW-W 5-15 kts daytime Sunday. Gusty and erratic winds near storms. OUTLOOK...Monday 17/06Z through Wednesday 19/06Z...VFR conditions, MVFR possible near heavier storms. Chance of isolated showers/storms over higher terrain between 18Z-03Z each afternoon. Winds SW-W 5-15 kts daytime, light and variable or terrain driven overnight. Gusty and erratic winds near storms. && .FIRE WEATHER...Today and Monday...Gradually turning warmer. Isolated showers and thunderstorms each day, mainly over the higher terrain. Coverage of storms increases over the White Mountains and eastern Mogollon Rim on Monday. Outside of storms, winds are generally light and variable at 10 mph or less. Tuesday through Thursday...Continued warmer temperatures. Isolated showers in the White Mountains on Tuesday, with coverage increasing and spreading westward on Wednesday and Thursday. Outside of storms, winds are generally southwest through west 5-10 mph each day. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ PUBLIC...Humphreys AVIATION...Schank FIRE WEATHER...Humphreys For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff ####018003963#### FXUS65 KBOI 160800 AFDBOI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 200 AM MDT Sun Aug 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated showers and thunderstorms today and Monday favoring higher terrain, with outflows up to 40 mph and local downpours. - Temperatures near or slightly above normal through mid-week, then further warming expected by late week. - Return of monsoon moisture Friday into the weekend will increase shower and thunderstorm chances once again. && .SHORT TERM /Through Tuesday Night/... Isolated showers and thunderstorms are lingering across south- central Idaho and Magic Valley early this morning. Water vapor imagery suggests drier conditions will follow the storms by mid morning, effectively nudging the activity toward the east and northeast. An upper ridge over the southern U.S. will begin to amplify over the Intermountain West this afternoon, placing east Oregon and southwest Idaho under warm, southwest flow aloft. This will boost high temperatures a few degrees from Saturday to slightly above normal. Swaths of Pacific moisture passing over this ridge will combine with daytime instability this afternoon, supporting the next round of shower and thunderstorm development. Convection will be limited, however, with the best dynamics over the higher terrain of northeast Oregon and central/south-central Idaho. Wind gusts up to 40 mph and localized heavy downpours will be the main concerns associated with storms. A weak disturbance will pass through the PacNW Monday and bring additional moisture to the area, increasing cloud coverage and promoting more convection Monday afternoon over the higher terrain. Temperatures will remain above normal as southwest flow and the ridge continue to influence the region. Showers may linger into early Tuesday morning across central Idaho, with drying elsewhere. Thereafter, the ridge will temporarily flatten on Tuesday due to passing troughs to the north, decreasing the moisture tap and lowering high temperatures by a couple of degrees across the forecast area. && .LONG TERM /Wednesday through Sunday/... Continued dry conditions and near normal temperatures are anticipated Wednesday. Models depict a rebuilding of the upper ridge into the region once again, reopening the door to warm southerly flow and the return of monsoon moisture by Thursday and Friday. Temperatures will become hot Thursday and Friday under this pattern, with shower and thunderstorm chances increasing both days. Meanwhile, a prominent, Pacific closed- low will approach and move northeast through the PacNW beginning Friday, clipping the forecast area through the weekend. Showers and thunderstorm chances will persevere as the trough enhances large-scale lift and carries moisture. Several degrees of cooling will be likely for Saturday and Sunday. && .AVIATION /06Z Sunday through Monday/... Issued 1212 AM MDT SUN AUG 16 2026 Generally VFR, with isolated showers/thunderstorms lingering over south-central Idaho through early morning. Areas of smoke reducing visibility in E Oregon, and in SW Idaho near Oregon border. This afternoon, isolated showers/thunderstorms around KBKE/KMYL and KTWF/KJER with gusts up to 35 kt. Surface winds: generally variable up to 10 kt through morning, except E-SE 10-20 kt for KJER/KTWF area. Becoming SW-NW 5-15 kt in the afternoon. Winds aloft at 10kft: SW-S 5-20 kt. KBOI...VFR. Surface winds: SE 5-12 kt overnight through morning, becoming NW-N 5-12 kt in the afternoon. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. OR...None. && $$ www.weather.gov/Boise Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSBoise www.x.com/NWSBoise SHORT TERM...SH LONG TERM....SH AVIATION.....SH ####018006563#### FXUS63 KLMK 160801 AFDLMK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 401 AM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Hot and humid conditions on Sunday with highs in the low/mid 90s and heat indices up to 109 degrees. Heat Advisory is in effect through 9 PM EDT/8 PM CDT for a large portion of southern IN, central and southern KY. * Another round of showers and storms are possible late Sunday ahead of a cold front moving through the region. Any storms that become severe would be capable of producing damaging winds. * A reprieve from the hot and humid weather, as well as showers and storms, comes Monday evening once the cold front departs to the south. Showers and storms arrive again for the mid and late week time frame, however temperatures should be slightly below normal for this time of year. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 400 AM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026 Looking across the region this morning, multiple perturbations are passing by just off to our north in Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio, producing scattered showers and thunderstorms. While we are currently dry, an area of weaker showers over southern Illinois could clip southern Indiana and far northern Kentucky during the morning hours on Sunday. While a few rumbles of thunder cannot be ruled out, chances for precipitation this morning for those areas are fairly low (15-35%). Through the middle part of the afternoon on Sunday, conditions across the region will again be hot and humid, with a Heat Advisory in place for the western 2/3 of the CWA that goes through 9 PM EDT/8 PM CDT. HREF probabilities for heat indices above 105 are greater than 70% for most places west of I-65, with greater than 60% chances for heat indices above 100 across the entire area. This will precede a west to east oriented cold front and associated surface low that will begin to slowly move over the region late Sunday. Ahead of the cold front, isolated to widely scattered showers and storms will begin to develop during the late afternoon and evening hours. Ample moisture will be present ahead of the front, with HREF outputting over 2" of PW. Additionally, plenty of instability will be available (HREF mean CAPE > 2500 J/kg) for these showers and storms. A limiting factor to how much development and how intense these storms could get is the fact that there is meager wind shear present (20-30 kt of deep-layer shear). The Storm Prediction Center does have a Slight Risk for severe weather for north central Kentucky and southern Indiana. The main concerns will be damaging winds, heavier downpours, and frequent lightning, though confidence remains low in more robust severe weather occurring. For Sunday night through Monday, the cold front will slowly push southward across the region, allowing for chances of showers and storms to continue into the start of the workweek. This will be amplified by an additional shortwave moving through early Monday that develops over Nebraska and Kansas late Sunday. Chances for strong to severe storms associated with this shortwave are rather low, with limited instability and weak shear in place at that time. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 400 AM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026 On Monday night, the cold front will finally push southward out of the region. This will allow weak surface high pressure to fill in and bring a much-needed reprieve from the uncomfortable heat and humidity that's been felt over the past several days. Per the most recent LREF guidance, lows on Tuesday will be in the upper 60s north of the Parkways and around 70 for places south. Conditions will also be dry through early Wednesday as the surface high slowly drifts to the east. Afternoon highs on Tuesday will be in the upper 80s, but with dew points in the mid 60s it will feel very comfortable outside. For Tuesday night, expect lows in the mid-to-upper 60s across the region. A broader pattern shift will begin to take place on Wednesday as the upper ridge over the western CONUS begins to amplify and an upper trough over the eastern CONUS digs southward. The southern periphery of the upper jet will be placed over southern Indiana and central Kentucky, acting as a pathway for multiple shortwaves to pass over the region through the start of the weekend. The first shortwave will move into the region Wednesday afternoon, bringing back chances for showers and thunderstorms for the remainder of the week. While temperatures Wednesday afternoon will be in the upper 80s/low 90s, the repeated rounds of convective activity afterwards will keep daytime highs in the low-to-mid 80s for the rest of the forecast period. While there is some uncertainty in the timing and progression, a cold front is expected to move through the area near the end of the forecast period (late Friday-Saturday), with surface high pressure building in behind. This will provide an end to the repeated rounds of showers and storms, with the convective activity pushing off to the south and east. With northerly flow persisting behind the front, temperatures will continue to remain mild, potentially making for a rather comfortable weekend ahead. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/... Issued at 155 AM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026 VFR conditions will prevail across the terminals through 00z this evening. There were a few showers and storms nearby LEX over the past few hours, but have since diminished and departed to the south. WSW winds will steadily increase during the daytime hours Sunday, with gusts up to 17 kt possible in the afternoon for SDF and LEX. Chances for showers and storms will increase after 00z for all terminals except BWG, with Prob30 groups introduced in the TAF package. While ceilings will remain VFR, heavier downpours with any showers and storms that develop could cause brief reductions in visibility. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...Heat Advisory until 9 PM EDT /8 PM CDT/ this evening for KYZ023>031-034-038-039-045-046-053-054-061>065-070>078- 081-082. IN...Heat Advisory until 9 PM EDT /8 PM CDT/ this evening for INZ076>078-083-084-089>092. && $$ SHORT TERM...BEN LONG TERM...BEN AVIATION...BEN ####018005214#### FXUS65 KRIW 160802 AFDRIW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Riverton WY 202 AM MDT Sun Aug 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Somewhat drier air moving into the area will bring less coverage of showers and thunderstorms today through Monday. - Increased moisture should bring another more active day on Tuesday with more numerous showers and thunderstorms. - Drier air returns Wednesday into Friday with only isolated thunderstorms expected. Above normal temperatures return Friday into the weekend with highs in the 90s East of the Continental Divide. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 157 AM MDT Sun Aug 16 2026 I have stated a few times before how much I hate forecasting the monsoon. The models do not handle it well, especially in weakly forced situations. An example is tonight where continue to have some showers and embedded thunder in western Wyoming and stretching into southern Idaho. No guidance had this last night, and nighttime is where it really struggles. In this case, as has been the case much of the previous several weeks, having as much vision of it as Helen Keller or Stevie Wonder. So, although my confidence in the trend of the coverage of the monsoon is fairly high, placement and timing of any convection, especially at night, is very low. The general trend of the showers is down, but some will linger all night. Most guidance does show drier is moving into the area, especially across eastern and southern Wyoming. Precipitable water values drop another 20 percent or so, and dew points should average 5 to 10 degrees less than yesterday. This means a lesser coverage of showers and storms (generally no more than a 1 in 3 chance at any point, and less then 1 in 5 at most places), and also less of a chance of heavy rain that could lead to local flooding. For now, we confined most POPs to the northwestern half of the state, and I have higher confidence during the day since there has been better model performance during this time frame. And, with more sunshine, temperatures should be somewhat warmer. As for tonight, most convection should end after sunset. However, my confidence in dry overnight period is low given the terrible performance of the models over the past few weeks with the monsoon during the nighttime hours. I just don't have the confidence to pinpoint an area at this time. Monday at this point looks fairly similar to Sunday, with mainly isolated convection and largely across northern and western Wyoming with less activity to the south and east. Temperatures should run fairly similar to Sunday. Some guidance is giving a surge of moisture at night and possible increase in activity but guidance is split. This, plus the models weakness in nighttime monsoon convection, confidence is low. With precipitable waters around 125 to 150 percent of normal on Tuesday, this also looks like a more active day with temperatures close to seasonal averages. There has been a bit of a change for Wednesday, and there is decent model agreement on this. It is that most show drier air moving in from the southwest and lessening the chance of showers and thunderstorms, with the best chance across eastern Wyoming. The drier pattern looks to hold at least into Friday with near normal precipitable water across the area and high pressure building northward out of the desert southwest. The forecast for Friday is probably the wettest it would be. Monsoonal moisture may increase again for next weekend, but timing this far out is uncertain. And with the ridge building northward again, temperatures will be on the rise again. Highs will begin to rise again on Thursday. By Friday and into next weekend, highs in the 90s look fairly commonplace East of the Divide and in the 80s West of the Divide. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/... Issued at 949 PM MDT Sat Aug 15 2026 A few showers will linger across western Wyoming tonight into Sunday morning, but should not impact any terminals. Outside of thunderstorms conditions will remain VFR through the TAF period. The strongest storms may drop conditions down to MVFR at times Sunday afternoon. These showers and storms will not be as widespread as moisture slowly decreases over the next few days. Wind will generally be around 10 knots or less through the TAF period. Some gusts near 20 knots will occur at KCPR and KRKS Sunday afternoon. Outflow driven wind, with gusts up to 40 knots will be possible with the strongest storms Sunday afternoon. Fog and low clouds are possible at KJAC again Sunday morning thanks to more rainfall this afternoon. Kept this threat as VCFG and SCT001 as clouds may keep it from fully saturating across the whole valley tonight/Sunday morning. Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZDV and ZLC for the latest information on icing and turbulence forecasts. && .RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Hattings AVIATION...Rowe ####018008342#### FXPQ50 PGUM 160803 AFDGUM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tiyan GU 603 PM ChST Sun Aug 16 2026 .Marianas Synopsis... Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are visible across the Marianas, and increasing in coverage around Guam and Rota. Gentle winds are prevailing. Models and observations show combined seas of 4 to 6 feet. && .Discussion... A convergence zone between the monsoon westerlies and east trade winds is setting up right over the Marianas tonight as widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms are now expected over Guam with a potential for locally heavy rainfall. Precipitation chances will decrease north of Guam, remaining scattered over Tinian and Saipan. The convergence zone is expected to move out of the area by tomorrow morning and be replaced with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. Lower cloud coverage and light winds over Tinian and Saipan could allow for island effect showers and thunderstorms over the southern portion of Saipan. Light and variable winds Tuesday morning will allow for island effect showers and thunderstorms to develop over Guam, Tinian, and Saipan, likely pushing south as a north wind begins to move into the area. Depending on the track and intensity of Invest 92W, another convergence zone may develop Tuesday night. Afterwards, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected most days for the rest of the forecast period. However, a fair amount of uncertainty remains due to 92W. && .Marine... Gentle southwesterlies are expected across the Marianas tonight before decreasing to light to gentle tomorrow, and then light and variable by Monday. A faster weakening of the monsoon trough to the west has dropped combined seas slightly to 4 to 6 feet and this is expected to remain steady before possibly decreasing slightly by Tuesday. A moderate risk of rip currents continues for the next few days along south, west, and north-facing reefs. There is a moderate risk of lightning through the week. A surge of moisture from the east bring widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms for Guam coastal waters with shower coverage decreasing to the north and becoming scattered over Tinian and Saipan. More bands of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible throughout the week depending on the development and track of Invest 92W in eastern Micronesia. This system will continue to be monitored closely. && .Tropical Systems... A developing disturbance, Invest 92W, is centered north-northeast of Pohnpei near 10N157E. The invest lies within a broad west to east oriented trough. Latest satellite data shows a weak Low-Level Circulation Center (LLCC) with some convection near the center. The strongest convection lies along the trough to the west and within a band of convergence south of the trough and invest across Chuuk, Pohnpei and Kosrae States to south of Majuro. Guidance shows the system moving slowly west-northwest, then turning northwest toward the far northern CNMI late in the week. There is a large degree of uncertainty with Invest 92W. However, the general consensus is for gradual development as 92W moves toward the northern CNMI. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) has rated Invest 92W as low, meaning development is unlikely during the next 24 hours. Residents of the Marianas should continue to monitor forecasts for any changes to the expected evolution of Invest 92W. For more information on Invest 92W, see bulletins issued by JTWC under WMO header ABPW10 PGTW. Another weak circulation, newly formed Invest 94W, is centered well north of Yap near 18N136E. Although 94W is currently rated sub-low, meaning no development is expected over the next few days, model guidance has shown this region is favorable for development. invest 94W is not expected to affect the Marianas or Micronesia as it moves easst-northeast to northeast over the next few days. && .Eastern Micronesia... Invest 92W remains and the associated trough remain active across eastern Micronesia today. Latest 925mb analysis shows that this trough is very close to becoming the primary monsoon trough, with weak troughing now seen from Invest 93W (north of 25N) to Invest 92W. 92W has become a bit more organized, resulting in it being upgraded from sub-low to low. As the trough strengthens and replaces the monsoon trough farther north, this will feed more energy into Invest 92W as it moves northwest, with strong convergence continuing south of the trough where a southerly push will continue to cross the Equator and converge with the monsoonal flow. This will maintain an active pattern across the region for the next several days. Kosrae and Pohnpei can expect brief periods of little or no showers with periods of numerous to widespread locally heavy showers and isolated thunderstorms through the middle of the week. Heavy rainfall capable of producing flash flooding and mudslides remains a threat for the next few days. By the end of the week, Kosrae, then Pohnpei, can expect to see a drier pattern for a couple of days. For Majuro, the developing monsoon trough will be the main player, bringing a couple periods of numerous locally heavy showers and isolated thunderstorms to the Marshalls Monday into Monday night. Convection will begin to decrease Tuesday, though POPs (Probability of Precipitation) will remain in the 30 to 50 percent range through the end of the week. For the marine forecast, south swell produced by a southern hemisphere system will continue to produce hazardous surf along south facing reefs through Tuesday afternoon. Seas will then begin to subside a bit. For Pohnpei, increasing south to southwest swell could result in hazardous surf along south facing reefs, though it appears that surf will remain just below hazardous levels for now. The Small Craft Advisory for Pohnpei was allowed to expire as winds and seas have subsided. However, depending on the development of the monsoon trough and Invest 92W, seas and wind could increase again around midweek, requiring another Small Craft Advisory. Benign seas and light to gentle winds will continue for Majuro. && .Western Micronesia... Satellite observations show partly cloudy skies across Palau and Yap, and mostly cloudy skies across Chuuk. Altimetry shows combined seas between 3 and 5 feet across Palau and Yap, and 5 to 7 feet across Chuuk. Ridging between the two monsoonal patterns remains in place across Palau and Yap. The dry monsoonal flow looks to continue through Tuesday night for Yap and Wednesday night for Palau. Guidance has begun to converge on a solution that would send Invest 92W north of the Marianas, allowing for a convergent part of the monsoon pattern to establish itself over Palau and Yap late this week. Heavy rainfall and gusty winds will be possible. Scattered showers are currently present across Chuuk, but shower coverage is expected to increase to numerous tonight. As Invest 92W lifts northward, Chuuk will be positioned within the monsoon tail this week. Widespread locally heavy showers are expected Monday night through Thursday. Rainfall amounts between 4 and 8 inches will be possible, which may lead to flash flooding and mudslides. At this time, Invest 92W looks to remain disorganized until it moves well north of Micronesia. Gusty winds up to 30 knots will remain possible near heavier showers. Winds and seas have fallen below small craft criteria across Chuuk today, allowing the Small Craft Advisory to expire. Combined seas are between 5 and 7 feet for Chuuk and will remain choppy through the week. Seas could become hazardous to small craft towards the end of the week as the monsoon tail moves over Chuuk. Benign seas of 3 to 5 feet are expected across Yap and Palau through the next several days. && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...None. MP...None. Marianas Waters...None. && $$ Marianas: Ogle East Micronesia: Kleeschulte West Micronesia: Williams ####018005838#### FXUS65 KPSR 160803 AFDPSR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 103 AM MST Sun Aug 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES.... - As high pressure builds over the region through the upcoming week, temperatures will heat up several degrees above normal levels as lower desert highs climb above 110 degrees. - Extreme Heat Warnings will be in effect throughout the week as widespread Major HeatRisk materializes. - Thunderstorm activity through the majority of the upcoming week will be mostly confined to the Arizona High Terrain and southeast Arizona. && .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Latest objective analysis continues to indicate southwest flow aloft entrenched across much of the Desert Southwest as general trofiness persists to the northwest while the subtropical high is positioned near the south-central states. The southwest flow will continue to advect drier air into the region. Thus, mainly quiet weather with no convective activity can be expected across the forecast area for today. With 500 mb heights rising slightly from the previous couple of days, afternoon high temperatures across the lower deserts will top out in the mid to upper 100s. The subtropical high will gradually build over the region during the first half of the week. As the high begins to build, 500 mb heights will rise closer to 594-596dam, which will represent the 97th percentile of climatology for this time of the year. Therefore, temperatures will climb another 3-5 degrees through Tuesday with afternoon highs breaching the 110 degree mark across the lower deserts. These afternoon high temperatures combined with early morning lows in the mid to upper 80s will result in a major spatial expansion of the Major HeatRisk Category and thus the Extreme Heat Warnings will start to go into effect across all the lower deserts starting Monday and for the San Carlos area in southern Gila County starting Tuesday. Convective activity during the first half of the week, will be mainly confined to the eastern and southeastern third of AZ with very little to no activity expected elsewhere given the below normal moisture values that will be in place, resulting in little to no instability. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/.... The subtropical high will continue to remain entrenched across the region through at least the end of the week, with 500 mb height fields remaining steady between 595-597dam. Therefore, temperatures will continue to run a good 4-7 degrees above normal as afternoon highs across the lower deserts will range between 108-113 degrees. There will also be little overnight relief as an increase in low- level moisture will cause overnight lows to only bottom out between the mid 80s to low 90s with the low 90s expected in the Phoenix area. Therefore, widespread Major HeatRisk will continue to remain in place with Extreme Heat Warnings in effect through Friday evening. The latest guidance does show the high eventually moving northeastward into the Four Corners region by the end of the week into next weekend, putting the region under a more favorable moisture advection pattern as the east to southeast flow increases. Therefore, an increase in monsoonal activity is more likely during this timeframe, mostly across the higher terrain areas. Although, it will certainly be possible for convective activity to impact the south-central AZ lower deserts at some point as well, it is still too far out to know what days could be active as it will be dependent on mesoscale processes such as outflow evolutions and/or any easterly waves that are difficult to pinpoint several days out. As of right now, NBM PoPs across the south-central AZ lower deserts starting next Thursday range between 10-20%. && .AVIATION...Updated at 0510Z. South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT: No major weather issues will exist through Sunday night under periods of thick mid/high cloud decks. Wind behavior will be nearly identical to the past 24 hours featuring a later than usual overnight easterly wind shift, and extended periods of variable directions during the typical wind shifts. Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: No weather concerns will exist through Sunday night under occasional mid/high cloud decks. Trends in winds will be similar to the past 24 hour including modest afternoon/evening gusts, and periods of nearly calm conditions in the morning. && .FIRE WEATHER... Near normal temperatures will prevail today before rising above normal starting Monday. Little to no monsoon activity is expected through the first half of the week, with only a few isolated thunderstorms expected across the far eastern districts. Thunderstorm chances increase somewhat, mainly for south-central AZ, by the latter half of the week. Afternoon MinRHs during the next several days will range between 15-20% across the lower deserts and 20-25% across the far eastern districts. Outside of thunderstorm winds, the overall winds will follow the typical diurnal tendencies with some modest afternoon upslope gustiness. && .PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AZ...Extreme Heat Warning from 10 AM Monday to 8 PM MST Friday for AZZ530>544-546-548>551-553>555-559. Extreme Heat Warning from 10 AM Tuesday to 8 PM MST Friday for AZZ560. CA...Extreme Heat Warning from 10 AM Monday to 8 PM PDT Friday for CAZ562-565>567-569-570. && $$ SHORT TERM...Lojero LONG TERM...Lojero AVIATION...18 FIRE WEATHER...Lojero