####018006602#### FXUS61 KBGM 101339 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion...corrected National Weather Service Binghamton NY 321 AM EST Wed Dec 10 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A clipper system will bring periods of accumulating snow and mixed precip to the area today. Lake effect snow and much colder temperatures are expected behind this system heading into Thursday and Friday. Periods of snow showers and well below average temperatures continue for the upcoming weekend across the region. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... A strong low-pressure clipper system will move through the region today into tonight, bringing a round of wintry precipitation. A quick burst of accumulating snow is expected from the morning through midday, with Northern Oneida County likely seeing the highest totals. Most areas, however, should pick up at least some snow before warmer air arrives and allows rain to mix in at lower elevations during the afternoon. Because this event is highly dependent on both temperature and elevation, the challenge will be determining how sharp the snowfall gradient becomes and where it sets up. This will greatly impact snow totals in the advisory areas. Steady snow will spread in from the southwest this morning as warm air advection increases. Temperatures aloft will remain below freezing initially, so the early precipitation will fall primarily as snow. As temperatures rise later in the day, the snow will gradually transition to a wintry mix, or even rain in the valleys, with the highest probability of this occurring across northeast Pennsylvania. There is also some potential for freezing rain, particularly in the Wyoming Valley late this morning into early afternoon, where slightly above freezing air aloft could lead to light icing. While some brief glaze is possible in northeast Pennsylvania, current trends suggest that any icing should remain limited and short-lived. Confidence in snow amounts is greatest over Northern Oneida county where a winter storm warning remains in effect. Advisories are in effect over east central NY and northeast PA where a few inches of snow is expected, but confidence is not as high due to variable temperatures and elevation differences. Snow and valley rain gradually tapers off late this afternoon. A sharp cold front passes west to east in the evening bringing in another shot of cold air. As a result temperatures again fall back below freezing. Wrap around snow showers and lake effect enhanced snow showers develop over central NY heading into tonight. With northwest flow a lake effect band sets up over Onondaga, Madison, and South Oneida. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Lake-effect snow will continue into Thursday as a cold air mass and persistent northwest flow remain in place. Temperatures at 850 mb are expected to fall to around -15 C by Thursday afternoon, and model soundings show deep moisture through the dendritic growth zone along with strong lift. This combination points to highly efficient snow production and potentially high snowfall rates. A Winter Storm Watch for lake-effect snow remains in effect from early Thursday morning through early Friday morning, as confidence in the exact placement of the heaviest band and final snow totals is still not high enough to upgrade to a warning. Across central New York and northeast Pennsylvania, scattered snow showers, and even brief snow squalls, are possible Thursday. Soundings also indicate that strong winds will mix down to the surface, making the day quite gusty with winds of 30 to 40 mph. This will lead to areas of blowing and drifting snow. Scattered snow showers and flurries will continue Thursday night, and lake-effect activity will linger into Friday as northwest flow persists. A weak disturbance moves in Friday evening, which should disrupt the lake-effect pattern but may also bring a slight chance of additional snow showers. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... The pattern remains active through this period, with temperatures staying below average. Another clipper system and its accompanying cold front will move into the region on Saturday, bringing another push of colder air along with additional snow showers. In the system’s wake, northwest flow will return, allowing lake effect snow showers to redevelop. Model guidance indicates that 850 mb temperatures could drop to between -17 C and -20 C, supporting continued lake effect activity into Monday. There are early indications that a ridge may begin to build over the region by the middle of next week, but confidence in this pattern change remains low. && .AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Ceilings are slowly lowering close to MVFR ahead of the incoming low pressure system. Snow is expected to move in from west to east starting around 10z. IFR restrictions are expected to quickly follow at all CNY terminals, lasting through the day as snow changes to a mix of rain and snow at lower elevations. AVP should see IFR restrictions during the afternoon hours. Broad snow exits in the evening with lingering showers remaining. A mix of IFR and MVFR Ceilings will remain. SYR and RME should see snow showers a through the end of the TAF period, keeping conditions IFR. LLWS of 35-40kts up to FL020 will be present across the area for a few hours tonight, picking up again around sunrise and through the morning hours. Outlook... Wednesday night through Thursday night...Restrictions likely in lake effect snow showers and squalls, especially at SYR and RME. Friday through Sunday...Occasional restrictions possible in scattered snow showers. Period of steadier accumulating snow possible Saturday night for KAVP, perhaps into KELM and KBGM as well. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072. NY...Winter Storm Warning until 1 PM EST Thursday for NYZ009. Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM EST Thursday for NYZ017-018- 036-037-044>046-057-062. Winter Storm Watch from late tonight through Friday morning for NYZ018-036-037. Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for NYZ056. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ES/MJM NEAR TERM...ES SHORT TERM...ES LONG TERM...ES AVIATION...JTC ####018007056#### FXUS63 KLMK 101342 AFDLMK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 842 AM EST Wed Dec 10 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... * Today, widespread wind gusts of 35-40 mph are expected. * Today, a cold front is bringing rain to the region. Rain will transition to scattered snow showers and flurries tonight. * A more significant wintry system is possible Thursday night into Friday morning, which could bring accumulating snowfall to portions of north central KY and southern IN. * Another shot of colder air arrives this weekend. && .UPDATE... Issued at 841 AM EST Wed Dec 10 2025 This morning, ~989 mb sfc low pressure is moving across the LP of Michigan, with a tight north-south oriented pressure gradient leading to gusty southwest winds across the Ohio Valley. A couple bands of rain showers have developed within a series of pre-frontal troughs extending across Indiana and Kentucky, with the main cold front still hanging out just to the NW of the Wabash Valley at this hour. The core of the 60+ kt LLJ is now pushing into southeast KY, with wind gusts generally in the 25-35 mph range at this hour. For the rest of the morning hours, we're expecting additional waves of light to moderate rain to move across southern IN and northern KY, with less rain expected across southern KY where the cold front forcing is weaker and there is less available moisture. Total rainfall amounts of 0.10-0.25" still look like a pretty good bet, especially along and north of I-64. While the winds aloft will be gradually weakening later today, more favorable mixing via steepening llvl lapse rates should allow for 30-40 mph wind gusts through the day, especially immediately following midday cold FROPA. Only made minor updates to PoPs for today and tonight, and increased the mention of flurries/sprinkles this afternoon through tonight. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 429 AM EST Wed Dec 10 2025 Today, a surface low over the LP of Michigan, in the center of an upper trough, will get carried northeast towards western New York by the eastern side of the trough. West of the low, a surging shortwave along with the low's cold front will drop southeast and through the Lower Ohio Valley. The front is expected to arrive in the CWA around midday, but rain ahead of the front is already beginning to make its way into our southern Indiana counties early this morning. This line of showers will increase in intensity over the next few hours and continue southeast over the CWA. The bulk of the rain is expected to come to an end by this evening as showers exit the Bluegrass and Lake Cumberland regions into eastern Kentucky, but some light precipitation on the back side of the system could linger into the tonight as it transitions to snow and/or a mix of rain and snow early tonight. The highest expected rainfall amounts are going to be over the northeastern part of the CWA where around 0.25" is expected. Amounts will taper off to the southwest, to maybe a couple hundreths near Bowling Green. By the time precipitation changes over to snow, only a few flurries to a dusting are expected. Winds are going to remain gusty today as a tight pressure gradient around the storm moves over the Lower Ohio Valley. Winds are expected to gust to around 35-40 mph first with southwest winds this morning. Then, we could get another gusty period as the front arrives with northwest winds. Early WAA is expected to lift temperatures into the 40s before CAA drops lows into the 20s tonight. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 429 AM EST Wed Dec 10 2025 Thursday, surface high pressure extends up the Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley behind the exiting cold front. Cloud cover from the departing system are expected to keep skies mostly cloudy, but we remain dry. As the high to the south passes off to the east, winds slowly back from the northwest to the south by Thursday night, ending CAA. This will be a little too late to help temperatures as highs only make it into the 30s. Thursday night into Friday, northwest flow will bring a clipper system through Missouri into Kentucky. All the moisture with the system will be on the northeast side of the surface low. The track could change, but a lot of consensus has the axis of the moisture running straight through south-central Indiana and through the Bluegrass and northern Kentucky. Snow totals have been trending up with areas near Jefferson County, Indiana towards Harrison County, Kentucky in the 2-4" range with lower totals tapering off to the southwest with Louisville and Lexington in the 1-2" range. We are expected to to fall into the mid to upper 20s in areas that see most of the precipitation during the first half of the night, but WAA ahead of the low bringing the precipitation will begin to warm temperatures after midnight. This could lead to a change over to rain Friday morning. This weekend, still expecting to see a blast of cooler temperatures with highs on Sunday only reaching into the upper teens across parts of southern Indiana and northern Kentucky. Temperatures are expected to be closer to 30 across southern Kentucky, but lows Saturday and Sunday night could reach into the single digits and teens. All of this is dependent on northwest flow remaining in place with multiple surface highs keeping CAA in place. Temperatures have been a little flip floppy the last couple of day. It should be cool. There is some room in how cold. Saturday night, the global models keep good agreement between them, but the overall set-up has changed. Now, instead of a system with a northwest component and a southern Gulf component. The latest solutions have just the northern component, acting like another clipper type system, and with it being farther northeast of our area, it may have limited impacts on us. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 651 AM EST Wed Dec 10 2025 Ahead of an approaching cold front, tight pressure gradients will cause gusty winds. Remaining LLWS is expected to last for a couple more hours at BWG and RGA. Winds will continue slowly veering from the southwest towards the northwest through the period. Gusts from 20-30 knots are expected over southern Indiana and central Kentucky. Rain will continue moving southeast over the region. The heaviest showers are expected to end by this afternoon with low chances of precipitation remaining into the night. The remaining precipitation tonight will likely change over to light snow or a mix. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...None. IN...None. && $$ UPDATE...CSG SHORT TERM...KDW LONG TERM...KDW AVIATION...KDW