####018004243#### FXUS63 KGRB 072111 AFDGRB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Green Bay WI 311 PM CST Sun Dec 7 2025 Forecast discussion for routine afternoon forecast issuance .KEY MESSAGES... - A clipper system is expected to bring a swath of 1 to 3 inches of snow along and north of a line from Wausau to Green Bay to Manitowoc. Lesser amounts are expected farther south. - A more potent clipper system is expected to bring another round of snow to the area late Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday morning. This system is expected to produce 3-6 inches of snow over much of the forecast area. There is still some uncertainty in where the axis of heaviest snow will set up. - Temperatures will moderate some by the middle of the week, then turn colder again late in the week. Wind chills of -10 to -25 are possible Friday night into early Saturday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 310 PM CST Sun Dec 7 2025 Low clouds and scattered flurries were observed across north central WI this afternoon, but the clouds had eroded over the past couple hours. High clouds were gradually increasing elsewhere. Temperatures were much below normal, in the single digits and teens. Fast WNW flow aloft will continue through at least mid-week, with a series of clipper-type systems moving through. The next clipper approaches on Monday, with increasing south winds leading to strong WAA during the day. Models suggest low clouds will develop in the late morning, and there may be just enough saturation depth for some flurries by afternoon. CAMs show that a north to south oriented lake-effect band should stay out over Lake Michigan, though a few flurries could impact the shoreline. The low pressure system will impact the region Monday night, and should bring a swath of 1 to 2 inches of snow north of a Wausau to Green Bay to Manitowoc line, with perhaps up to 3 inches over northern Door County. The most impactful clipper system impacts the region from late Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday morning, with strong upper level forcing with a short-wave and coupled upper level jets, and an intense low pressure system (985-990 mb). In addition, this low will have remnant moisture from a Pacific Northwest atmospheric river to work with. Current probabilistic forecasts show a 50-80% chance of 4+ inches of snow across most of the the forecast area. Far northern WI looks to be north of the main QPF axis, and the far south could see a little rain mixed with the snow, so the heaviest snow band will probably set up somewhere in the middle. Winter Weather Advisories are looking likely during this period, with a possibility of a narrow band of heavy snow. Don't see any big storms coming for the rest of the week, but models are in agreement on the passage of a strong arctic cold front during the Friday/Friday night time frame. This front could bring wind chills of 10 below to 25 below zero Friday night into Saturday morning. So, after mid-week "warm-up" (highs in the mid 20s to lower 30s), frigid temperatures will likely return late in the week. It will be a windy week, with low-end potential for southwest gales Monday night and north gales on Wednesday, and higher-end potential for northwest gales Friday into Friday night. && .AVIATION...for 18Z TAF Issuance Issued at 1134 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025 Lake-enhanced low clouds (MVFR) covered north central and parts of far northeast WI at issuance time, but any southward advancement had ended. Will carry MVFR ceilings at RHI until around 21z, with the expectation of clearing after that time. High/mid clouds will increase overnight, and models strongly hint at some low cloud (MVFR) development as south winds and associated WAA strengthen late Monday morning. The forecast still looks on track for accumulating snow Monday night, with the most significant amounts (1-3 inches) occurring over the northeast half of the forecast area. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION.....Kieckbusch AVIATION.......Kieckbusch ####018006814#### FXUS63 KMPX 072113 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 313 PM CST Sun Dec 7 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Cold again tonight, but warmer on Monday & Tuesday. - Multiple chances for snow the first half of this week, with the most significant being Tuesday into Tuesday night. - Cold temperatures return to end the work week with below zero temperatures likely at night. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 312 PM CST Sun Dec 7 2025 Mostly Clear skies & light northwest winds are present across the region this afternoon. Temperatures remain cold, often in the single digits, with wind chills a few degrees either side of 0F. Cloud cover will increase overnight as a surge of warm air advection on the back side of the sfc high pressure. This will lead to our first of several precip events this week. Light snow will push east into western MN by this evening and move southeast into southern MN through tonight before tapering off Monday morning. We should all be prepared for these types of events considering the number of them we've encountered over the last two weeks. Snowfall rates will be light with amounts likely be less than an inch. Snow may reach into the Twin Cities metro, but accumulations will be general less than a half inch. Still, partially snow covered roads could lead to slippery travel conditions Monday morning. Lows Sunday night will fall in the single digits. Monday offers a much warmer day than Sunday. High temperatures will be in the mid 20s with southerly winds 10 to 15 mph. A quick moving system will move across the International border with the bulk of precip falling north of our forecast area, but central MN will see some minor accumulations Monday evening into Monday night. This system should produce a little more snowfall so an inch or two from Alexandria to Mille Lacs seems reasonable. Another dusting in the Twin Cities metro will keep our snow globe active. On Tuesday, a larger & better organized system will impact the Upper Midwest. Guidance continues to highlight a classic Alberta clipper that drops into western MN by Tuesday afternoon, traveling southeast along I-94 through MN & WI, and into the southern Great Lakes by Wednesday morning. A rapidly deepening surface low will move in along an impressive shortwave that will bring with it a strong surge of warm air advect ahead of the surface low. The track of the surface low will be very important for where and what types of precipitation fall. It may be difficult to believe, but temperatures likely warm into the 30s on Tuesday and possibly lower 40s in SW MN. Precipitation is on tap to begin as snow, possibly heavy, as the initial band moves in Tuesday afternoon. I-94 will act as the split for those north/east of the interstate remaining all snow while those west/south of I-94 will likely see snow turn to a wintry mix by Tuesday evening. The energy tied to our shortwave remains off the coast of Canada & has yet to be fully sampled by ROAB network. This means there will be fine tuning to the surface low's track over the next 24 hours so wobbles in guidance shouldn't lead to drastic change our messaging. Headlines have been punted for now, but I would assume watches will be issued overnight or early Monday ahead of this system. Why will the surface low track be so important? Guidance highlights an area of strong WAA forecast to occur to the south and east of the surface low. Our surface temperatures will warm into the mid to upper 30s in the warm sector. This will likely result in a period of Wintry mix and possibly plain rain on Tuesday. If the low nudges further south - those in the Twin Cities metro may get lucky and remain mostly snow. If it nudges further north, we'll likely see more rain & likely melt a good portion of our current snow pack. For those along & north of I-94, temperatures remain below freezing such that a rain to snow transition is not expected. A brief transition to freezing rain is also possible as forecast soundings show a warm nose overrunning the subfreezing surface temperatures. Guidance tends to produce about 0.40-0.75" of QPF within the heaviest swath of precipitation. Snow ratios remain near climo (12:1 to 13:1), we can expect a swath of 4-6" (locally 6"+) of snow for those in the "sweet spot" just north of the warm sector. The heaviest snow would be along and just north of this corridor. Collaboration with neighboring offices led to a deferral of any winter headlines for now, but they will be needed in the near future for at least our central MN into west-central WI counties. This is a quintessential clipper system that looks to bring a quick hit of snow to many along the I-94 corridor from Fargo, ND to Detroit, MI. After Wednesday, our forecast will begin to turn drier, but much colder as a potent cold air mass from northwest Canada slides down the Rockies into the Northern Plains. The end of the week looks quite frigid as long-range ensemble forecast highs struggling to exceed single digits for both Friday and Saturday. Meanwhile, nighttime lows should plummet well below zero. Some guidance supports wind chill temperatures in the -20F's that would likely require a cold headline at the end of this forecast period. Something to keep in mind as we thaw out Tuesday. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1133 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025 Skies are mostly clear this morning, with a VFR mid-level deck moving into the area. MVFR cigs are to be expected overnight tonight and will also come with another round of light snow west of I-35. Any snowfall that is seen tonight will come in at a half inch total or less. Dendritic growth zones on the order of 12k feet deep will make it pretty easy for any cloud layer to make snow tonight. Stayed close to a RAP timing for the snow potential tonight. KMSP...Another light snow event overnight tonight, with best chances at MSP between 2 and 6AM Monday morning. Accumulations will be generally a half inch or less during the overnight hours. MVFR cigs likely from snow onset through most of the day Monday. Winds will become more southerly through the period, increasing in strength as well. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ MON...MVFR/VFR cigs. Wind S 10-15 kts. TUE...MVFR/IFR late with -RASN. Wind S 10-15 kts, bcmg NW late. WED...MVFR cigs. Wind NW 10-15 kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...BPH AVIATION...PV