####018009634#### FXUS61 KPBZ 101513 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 1013 AM EST Wed Dec 10 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Active weather through the weekend will bring rounds of snow, occasionally mixed with rain, as well as fluctuating temperature and gusty winds. Overall, snowfall accumulations favor areas north of Interstate 80 and the ridges of southwest Pennsylvania and northern West Virginia. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... KEY MESSAGES: - A passing disturbance brings a mix of rain and snow to the area today. Accumulating snow will be focused in the ridges and along the I-80 corridor where various winter headlines have been issued - Strong wind gusts today up to 45 mph (55 mph in the ridges of eastern Tucker County, WV) --------------------------------------------------------------- A trough and associated surface low dive across the Great Lakes today before pivoting to the northeast just north of Lake Erie and departing the area tonight. A mix of rain and snow has already started across eastern Ohio and will continue to spread eastward across the rest of the area through this morning. The best chance for impactful snowfall accumulations with this early morning wave will be along and north of I-80 where roughly 3 to 5 inches (locally up to 6 inches) of heavy, wet snow are expected to impact the morning commute. As a result, the Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect for Mercer, Venango, Forest, Clarion, and Jefferson Counties until 10 PM this evening. In southwest PA and northern WV ridges, a brief period of rain/snow mix this morning will transition to all snow later today that lingers through tonight. Snowfall accumulations in the lower ridges of western Preston/Tucker counties in WV and in the SW PA ridges are expected to hover around 3 to 5 inches. A Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect for these areas through Thursday morning. Meanwhile, in the higher ridges of eastern Preston and Tucker counties in WV, snowfall amounts up to 6 to 8 inches will be possible which, combined with a long duration of winds gusting to 50-60 mph, supports a continuance of the Blizzard Warning in those areas through Thursday morning. Where the most tricky part of the forecast comes in is actually for the lower elevations of eastern OH and southwestern PA. Most thermal profiles in model soundings are below freezing save the lowest few hundred feet where surface temperatures sit slightly above freezing. Should this be the case, a wet and cold rain/snow mix will be the result with little resulting accumulations. However, if surface temps trend colder than guidance, there is a conditional threat for a thump of heavy, wet snow to impact a good portion of southwest Pennsylvania, eastern Ohio, and the panhandle of West Virginia in the early morning to early afternoon hours. This is very much a low probability, high impact scenario as the worst case scenario could be a quick 1-3 inches of heavy, wet snow accumulation with impacts to the morning commute. We will continue to closely monitor incoming guidance and latest surface/radar observations, and consider headline issuances/expansions should conditions trend in that direction. By evening, a cold front advances through the area, bringing cold air advection and a shift to northwest flow. While this should end the widespread precipitation threat, it marks the onset of a convective snow shower threat mainly north of Pittsburgh and in the ridges where lake-enhancement and upslope forcing, respectively, will allow snow to linger tonight. In addition to impacts caused by wintry precipitation, tight surface gradients will foster gusty wind between 30-40 mph in the afternoon in the lower elevations, with 40-50 mph gusts possible in the ridges and peak gusts as high as 60 mph possible in the highest ridges of eastern Tucker County, WV. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... KEY MESSAGES: - Transition to lingering upslope and lake-effect snow Thursday - Two more quick-hitting disturbances bring snow potential to areas south of I-70 late Thursday night into Friday morning, and then to the I-80 corridor and ridges Friday night - Temperatures well below average ---------------------------------------------------------------- With the Wednesday low pressure system having departed the area to the northeast, Thursday will see post-frontal northwest flow with lake-effect snow showers/banding possible through the day. The best chance for additional accumulations will be along and north of I-80 where these bands could locally add another couple inches to the snowpack. That said, confidence at this time in the details regarding locations and amounts is low. The Winter Weather Advisories up there are currently set to expire at 10 PM this evening, but if lake effect bands are ongoing and CAMs trend towards notable additional accumulations into Thursday, an extension may be needed. Elsewhere across the area, it will be cold and dry with highs struggling to top 30 degrees and a brisk westerly wind. The active pattern continues through the end of the work week as guidance points toward two more quick-hitting mid-level shortwave troughs impacting the region overnight Thursday into Friday and then again overnight Friday into early Saturday. The first wave is currently projected to dive south of the local area, bringing precipitation mainly to areas along and south of I-70. With cold air already entrenched across the region, precipitation type is likely to be all snow. At this time, roughly 1 to 3 inches of additional snowfall appear possible south of I-70, with higher amounts to 3 to 5 inches possible in the Laurels and northern WV ridges. The second wave moves over the Great Lakes after sunset Friday evening. The orientation of this second wave appears to mostly favor a redevelopment of lake-effect snow showers/banding north of Pittsburgh and upslope-forced snow showers along the ridges. Any additional accumulations with this second wave appear light. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... KEY MESSAGES: - Another chance for snow Saturday into Sunday before a brief period of dry weather returns Monday into Tuesday - Temperatures remain well below average this weekend into early next week ------------------------------------------------------------------- The unsettled pattern continues into the weekend as mid-level troughing plagues the ECONUS. Yet another shortwave embedded within the broader trough brings a round of snow to the area late in the day Saturday. There is still significant uncertainty regarding how much accumulation that system brings, but what guidance does appear to agree on is that it serves as a potable reinforcing shot of cold air. Confidence is increasing in a several day period where we have high temperatures some 15-20 degrees below average in a cP airmass. Lows Saturday night through Monday night range from teens to single digits, while high temps on Sunday barely climb into the low 20s in some spots and mid 20s on Monday. Luckily, precipitation potential appears to taper off as we head into early next week with guidance suggesting weak height rises occur Monday and Tuesday as a weak ridge builds into the region. && .AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... KEY MESSAGES: - Widespread restrictions with rain and snow today - Passing cold front will increase gusty conditions and snow showers - A new disturbance expected early Friday ------------------------------------------------------------------- Cigs will continue to MVFR/IFR over the next 3 hours as moisture aloft advances with a passing disturbance. With warm advection under strong southwest flow, rain has been noted at terminals south of FKL/DUJ this morning and will likely continue with dew points increasing into the mid-30s. However, can't rule out a few isolated areas (MGW/PIT/AGC) seeing occasional rain mixed with snow due to wet-bulbing. A cold front will advance between 18Z and 21Z. Wind gusts will likely increase with boundary layer mixing and a strong low- level jet. Convection snow shower chances increase during this time period and stay elevated through 03Z before drier air increases from the northwest. Snow shower chances appear promising in the vicinity of FKL/DUJ through early Thurs morning due to lake enhancement and continue into Thurs evening. Outlook... Another period of restrictions are possible Thursday night and Friday with crossing low pressure. The restriction potential continues Saturday and Sunday with another crossing low, and subsequent cold NW flow and upper troughing. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for PAZ007>009-015-016. Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EST Thursday for PAZ074-076-078. OH...None. WV...Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EST Thursday for WVZ511-513. Blizzard Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EST Thursday for WVZ512-514. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Cermak NEAR TERM...Cermak/MLB SHORT TERM...Cermak/MLB LONG TERM...Cermak/MLB AVIATION...Hefferan