####018005023#### FXUS61 KRLX 190236 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 1036 PM EDT Thu Apr 18 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Another round of showers and storms Friday with a cold front. Cooler and drier this weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 1030 PM Thursday... The forecast remains on track. As of 710 PM Thursday... The forecast remains on track. As of 1216 PM Thursday... Overall, dry today, with high pressure surface and aloft temporarily in control. Showers ad storms will return early Friday with the approach of a low and associated cold front. Winds will pick up towards early Friday with approach of this system. With the storms, widespread severe is not anticipated, but depending on timing of front and convective development, an isolated strong storm cannot be completely ruled out across the south and east, but overall, the front should be through most locations by peak heating, thus limiting overall instability and severe potential. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 215 PM Thursday... Showers and thunderstorms continuing along the mountains Friday night before largely moving out before midnight. Post-FROPA NW winds will be picking up going into Saturday morning, especially along the mountains, but winds will be below advisory criteria. Saturday looks to be cool and dry with departing clouds behind the cold front. The lowlands will see temperatures in the low to mid 60s, while the mountains will stay in the 40s and 50s. Lows Saturday night will be cold with widespread 30s and 40s leading to frost concerns for the active growing areas going into Sunday morning. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 1230 PM Thursday... Dry and cooler weather will still be in play to end the weekend, with the coolest day being Sunday where the lowlands will see temperatures in the mid to upper 50s; 40s and 50s in the mountains. There could be some showers across the southwestern VA and southern WV mountains Sunday due to some moisture passing to our south from The GoM. There remains the possibility for a couple mornings of frost across the region next week. Cold lows in the 30s will allow for a more widespread development Monday morning; which could prompt some frost/freeze headlines across counties with active growing seasons. Guidance is still split on what will happen with a front next week, but some midweek rain or thunderstorms could be possible. Temperatures look to be near normal to a few degrees below normal next week, with Tuesday being the warmest day. && .AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 730 PM Thursday... VFR will prevail until lower clouds and rain ahead of a cold front cross into the area in the mid to late morning. Showers will likely reduce VIS slightly, but not lower than MVFR, unless a storm develops. Lower CIGs (MVFR) will spread across the area during the early afternoon and make it to the mountains (eastern sites) by late afternoon. The western sites will break out to VFR, except for CRW who may take slightly longer. The eastern sites will likely break out to VFR in the late afternoon to early evening. Some lower CIGs, maybe even IFR at times, have potential to form along the mountains and possibly affect CKB/EKN/BKW for a short period in the afternoon. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of precipitation and associated restrictions may vary from forecast. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE FRI 04/19/24 UTC 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 EDT 1HRLY 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H L H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H L M H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M L EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M AFTER 00Z SATURDAY... No widespread IFR is expected at this time. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SL/LTC NEAR TERM...SL/JZ SHORT TERM...LTC LONG TERM...LTC AVIATION...JZ ####018006830#### FXUS65 KBOU 190236 AFDBOU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 836 PM MDT Thu Apr 18 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Cool and cloudy with rounds of snow through Saturday morning. - Best chance of accumulating snow Friday afternoon into Saturday morning. - Drier and warmer early next week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 830 PM MDT Thu Apr 18 2024 The low clouds will be here to stay throughout the night tonight across the plains and foothills. There will continue to be mist and flurries as well. Roads may become slick and icy especially in the foothills where there is colder temperatures. Across the Denver metro, bridges may become very icy by morning so the morning commute could have more crashes than normal. Tomorrow, clouds may clear over the plains to the south of I-70. This may allow for a bit warmer conditions than today but highs were lowered a couple of degrees in this update. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday) Issued at 242 PM MDT Thu Apr 18 2024 Post frontal upslope flow continues which will lock stratus in across the plain as periods of overrunning associated with passing disturbances move through westerly flow aloft. Snow bands redevelop overnight across the front range and spreads eastward bringing some additional light snow through early Fri morning. A stronger round of upper lift associated with the next wave in westerly flow spreads in late Friday through Saturday morning. This will bring another more widespread snow event to the region, with HREF probabilities of 3 inches in the 40-60% range across a large portion of NE CO through early Saturday morning, though warmth of ground and pavement surfaces may mitigate impacts to some degree across the lower elevations. Probabilities for 6" or more really tail back quickly across the lower elevations though some HREF probs do show an area of 50% probs along front range mountains. Some light snow continues into Saturday morning before drying spreads in behind the wave through the day. Stratus may hang in most of the day across the plains as focus for precipitation shifts southward. Temperatures will remain below normal through the period. .LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 242 PM MDT Thu Apr 18 2024 Upper ridge builds in then flattens as the next closed low passes to the north on Monday. Temperatures rebound back into the 60s to around 70 across the plains for Sunday and into the 40s and 50s for the mountain communities. This wave brings another brief round of snow Sunday night across the mountains but accumulations stay light. Monday gets windy and warm again which could bring some near critical fire weather conditions to portions of the plains. For now RH values stay above the 15 percent critical thresholds. A minor drop in temperatures expected for Tuesday behind another front which drops through the region Monday night. Post frontal upslope flow may generate some mountain showers across the region Tuesday afternoon and evening. Timing of the next system in southwest flow for mid to late week is still in question among the models/ensembles. For now it looks like we enter another dry and windy southwest flow pattern with another uptick in mountain precipitation late week. && .LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 242 PM MDT Thu Apr 18 2024 Upper ridge builds in then flattens as the next closed low passes to the north on Monday. Temperatures rebound back into the 60s to around 70 across the plains for Sunday and into the 40s and 50s for the mountain communities. This wave brings another brief round of snow Sunday night across the mountains but accumulations stay light. Monday gets windy and warm again which could bring some near critical fire weather conditions to portions of the plains. For now RH values stay above the 15 percent critical thresholds. A minor drop in temperatures expected for Tuesday behind another front which drops through the region Monday night. Post frontal upslope flow may generate some mountain showers across the region Tuesday afternoon and evening. Timing of the next system in southwest flow for mid to late week is still in question among the models/ensembles. For now it looks like we enter another dry and windy southwest flow pattern with another uptick in mountain precipitation late week. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday afternoon) Issued at 242 PM MDT Thu Apr 18 2024 Active pattern with low ceilings, periodic drizzle or light rain, with eventually snow returning to the TAF sites at the every end of the forecast period Friday evening. Latest radar imagery depicting continued drizzle and light rain across all of the terminals, with observational data indicating any snow remaining confined to the higher terrain. While coverage of the drizzle or light rain should decrease this evening, still think it will be occasionally observed for much of the night. Some guidance showing a possibility for a small window of snow very late tonight into early Friday morning, but think there is a very low chance of this occurring at this time. Vis under this precip should be 6 miles or more but by late evening, will see vis begin to fall, with vis 3- 5sm appearing likely under additional BR development later tonight into Friday morning. The improvement to higher end MVFR ceilings this afternoon should be the last of any improvement, as a slow downward trend is likely once again tonight into Friday morning. While can't completely rule out a return to IFR ceilings, think a more likely solution at this point is MVFR ceilings in the 1kft to 2kft range. A general light easterly wind component looks to remain in place into this evening, however, more variable winds are possible later tonight before shifting to the north Friday morning. Drizzle or rain chances look low Friday morning at this point, but if lower ceilings are in place than currently forecast, would not be surprised to see continued development. A slow improving trend with ceilings and vis is likely through early to mid afternoon Friday, as northerly winds steadily increase. Rain will return to the terminals by mid to late afternoon and will assist with lowering ceilings during that time, with this trend continuing into the evening as snow becomes more likely. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...Danielson SHORT TERM...099 LONG TERM...099 AVIATION...099