####018004591#### FXUS63 KOAX 222021 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 321 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Strong southwesterly winds gusting 35 to 55 mph will drop off this evening as winds turn northwesterly. - Showers and storms are expected (40-75% chance) late this evening, primarily south of the Platte River. A few could be strong and produce gusty winds. - Several rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected Thursday through the weekend, though confidence is somewhat low on exact timing of any given round. Severe weather will be possible at times. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 251 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024 We're seeing strong southwesterly winds out ahead of a cold front moving across eastern Nebraska into western Iowa this afternoon. As the cold front moves through, winds shift to the northwest and drop off fairly dramatically in speed. Skies have cleared fairly well, but because of the wind blowing dust has kept hazy skies across our area. We're seeing temperatures in the low-to-mid 70s, which should still increase a few more degrees this afternoon. The frontal boundary stalls across southeastern Nebraska this evening providing a focus for thunderstorm development, with precipitation chances increasing after sunset with the arrival of the upper-level trough and the low-level jet bringing providing a source of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. Expect showers and thunderstorms to stay confined mostly south of the Platte River. CAMs don't show much organization with these showers or thunderstorms which supports our thoughts that severe potential is low, but steep lapse rates could support a damaging wind gust or two. Rain should move out of our area by 7 AM Tuesday morning. Tuesday and Wednesday weather stays relatively quiet as broad ridging builds over the Central Plains, though shortwaves do ride over the top leading to a slight chance of showers Wednesday afternoon and evening. Temperatures stay fairly seasonable, with highs on Tuesday in the 60s to low 70s, and Wednesday in the 60s. Thursday through Sunday will be the time period to watch for potential for severe weather. There are a couple potent low pressure systems that will be moving through the central CONUS that will likely bring severe weather to a good portion of the region that could potentially impact at least some of our area. The first system looks like it could arrive as early as Thursday evening. Latest models have been trending earlier with this first system, now bringing it in as early as Thursday evening when before we were thinking it was more of a Friday system. It could still arrive as late as Friday morning. As we get closer we'll have a better idea on the timing, but it seems like it very will could bring a chance for all modes of severe weather including damaging winds, large hail, and tornadoes. The second system has sped up as well, now looking like it could start Saturday night and continue into Sunday. The timing of this system reminds me a bit of the system from last week where we had storms roll through overnight with the bulk of the severe weather actually occurring under the surface low the following day. It's still a ways away, but something to watch. Machine Learning models from CSU shows potential for severe weather for our area Friday, Saturday, and Sunday with these systems. SPC has highlighted parts of our area with a 15% risk for Friday and Saturday. I would certainly watch the forecast for this time period as it approaches. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1121 AM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024 VFR conditions expected to hold through the TAF period. Strong southerly winds gusting to 35 kt expected ahead of a frontal passage early this afternoon. Expect a wind shift to northwesterly by 00Z with wind speeds dropping off fairly rapidly after the wind shift, becoming light and somewhat variable overnight tonight. Winds will increase out of the north-northwest toward the end of the TAF period to around 10 to 15 kt Tuesday morning. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...Wind Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for NEZ015-033-034- 043>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093. IA...Wind Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for IAZ043-055-056- 069-079-080-090-091. && $$ DISCUSSION...McCoy AVIATION...McCoy ####018003757#### FXUS65 KPIH 222021 AFDPIH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pocatello ID 221 PM MDT Mon Apr 22 2024 .SHORT TERM...Today and Tuesday. Looking at satellite imagery our area remains under breezy northwest flow aloft with a weak ridge axis just to our west. Expect dry conditions, slightly cooler than normal conditions, and breezy winds today. Wind gusts will range from 20 to 35 mph this afternoon. Early Tuesday, the weak ridge axis moves over our area then this ridge axis weakens as well as moves east by Tuesday afternoon. Look for southwesterly flow to set up by Tuesday afternoon bringing warmer temperatures, 8 to 12 degrees above normal. Moisture ahead of an upper level low off the coast of California will start to make its way into our southern areas late Tuesday. There is a 10 to 20 percent chance of showers along the Utah border late Tuesday afternoon into the evening. Wyatt .LONG TERM...Wednesday through next Monday. An upper low will move onshore into southern California on Wednesday with southwest flow aloft over Idaho filtering in warm air and moisture. Daytime temperatures will warm to 10 or more degrees above normal on Wednesday, with this being the warmest day of the week. Highs will run in the low 70s across the Snake Plain and eastern Magic Valley, with 60s in the highlands, and 40s and 50s in the mountains. Beginning Thursday, upper flow turns more westerly as another Pacific Northwest system moves onshore. Precipitation chances become increasingly widespread beginning Wednesday, with isolated to scattered thunderstorms both Wednesday and Thursday afternoons. The trough axis will shift overhead early weekend with widespread PoPs of 50 percent and higher Friday and Saturday. Temperatures will decrease by several degrees on Thursday and by another 5 to 10 on Friday following a cold front passage, with temperatures looking to remain fairly stable again on Saturday before they begin to trend upward again. Beginning Sunday, 500 mb ensemble clusters feature differences in the amplitude of the trough and indicate much variation amongst models regarding the timing of the next low working through the PNW and a ridge building in from the southwest. Cropp && .AVIATION... VFR conditions and dry conditions forecast areawide under FEW to SCT clouds through Tuesday. Winds will remain breezy today at KPIH, KIDA, KBYI, and to a lesser degree KSUN with sustained southwest/west winds of 10 to 15 kts and gusts ranging 20 to 25 kt. Winds will decrease early this evening, becoming light overnight into early Tuesday morning. Cloud cover and precipitation chances increase early Wednesday through the weekend. Cropp && .HYDROLOGY...No major changes in the hydro forecasts at this time. Water levels on the Portneuf river continue to run high, just below moderate flood stage for the Portneuf river in Pocatello. The river forecast for the Portneuf river in Pocatello shows the river running above flood stage for the foreseeable future and likely climbing back to moderate flood stage by Tuesday. At Topaz on the Portneuf, current levels remain very near minor flood and are forecast to rise above minor flood stage by late Tuesday into Wednesday. Thus, have upgraded the flood advisory on the Portneuf at Topaz to a flood warning. Water levels are forecast to slowly rise toward the end of the week with warming temperatures through Wednesday and the return of precipitation chances in the second half of the week into the weekend. Wyatt && .PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ ####018005005#### FXUS64 KEPZ 222023 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM 223 PM MDT Mon Apr 22 2024 ...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 140 PM MDT Mon Apr 22 2024 Warm, dry and breezy afternoon winds can be expected each day. The windiest conditions will be Thursday and possibly even Saturday with fairly dry conditions, except for a low chance in the area mountains Saturday. Otherwise, afternoon breezes can be expected each day over the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 140 PM MDT Mon Apr 22 2024 Above normal temperatures continue tomorrow and Wednesday where much of the lowland areas will reach into the mid to upper 80s and El Paso could see a couple days of 90 degree temperatures the next couple days. Meanwhile, dry conditions continue with afternoon breeziness areawide. A windy day can be expected Thursday with very dry conditions allowing for patchy blowing dust for much of the lowlands and especially for El Paso, Hudspeth, and locations around White Sands National Park. Friday and heading into the weekend appears to remain dry with typical afternoon breeziness. However, Saturday the area mountains could see low end chances for rain and another round of windy conditions can be expected. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1126 AM MDT Mon Apr 22 2024 VFR conditions expected with SKC-FEW250. Winds will be light throughout the period, generally less than 10 knots. Direction will start off southerly (160-180) before becoming more westerly (230-260). && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 140 PM MDT Mon Apr 22 2024 Above average temperatures continue tomorrow and Wednesday with the area remaining dry with afternoon breezes. Elevated fire weather conditions Tuesday and Wednesday, but is expected to remain in isolated higher terrain locations where Red Flag criteria would be met. The windiest conditions can be expected Thursday. The Borderland will remain dry but the area mountains will have a low end chance of seeing rain. Blowing dust will also be a concern with southwest winds that day. There's a very good chance a Red Flag Warning may need to be issued that afternoon for much of the area. Min RH values will be in the single digits in the lowlands and in the teens for the mountains. Another day of at least elevated fire weather conditions exists Friday and Saturday. Better chances for Saturday where Red Flag criteria could be met for much of the area. Ventilation rates will be very good to excellent tomorrow lasting through the weekend. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 60 91 62 90 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 54 85 56 85 / 10 0 0 0 Las Cruces 55 91 57 88 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 56 87 53 85 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 44 64 43 63 / 0 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 54 88 55 85 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 51 79 50 75 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 52 88 52 85 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 52 86 52 83 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 60 88 61 87 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 51 90 50 90 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 55 92 54 91 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 55 82 56 80 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 56 90 57 90 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 54 87 55 86 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 62 88 61 86 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 51 87 53 85 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 51 89 51 87 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 55 88 56 87 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 54 86 54 85 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 47 78 48 77 / 0 0 0 0 Mescalero 47 75 47 74 / 0 0 0 0 Timberon 43 74 45 73 / 0 0 0 0 Winston 47 80 46 77 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 51 85 50 83 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 49 86 49 84 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 46 79 45 76 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 48 82 48 80 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 50 85 51 82 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 51 80 50 77 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 50 81 50 79 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 52 86 51 83 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 54 86 54 85 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 52 85 52 84 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 52 79 52 77 / 0 0 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...37-Slusher ####018003695#### FXUS65 KFGZ 222024 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 124 PM MST Mon Apr 22 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Warm, dry and breezy conditions continue through the middle of the week. Cooler and more unsettled conditions return for the second half of the week, with a chance of showers Thursday and again late Friday through Saturday. && .DISCUSSION...Dry and increasingly breezy weather will continue through Wednesday as ridging over the southwest gradually gets pushed eastward by a trough moving onto the west coast. Today will be the warmest day of the week, with high temperatures cooling a few degrees both Tuesday and Wednesday. Thursday - the west coast trough moves across Arizona. Weak lift and instability combine for a chance of showers starting in the early morning hours from Flagstaff westward, spreading eastward through the afternoon. Precipitation amounts will be light with the probability of 0.10" or greater only around 10% for the high country and even lower in the valleys. Temperatures will be around 10 degrees cooler than Wednesday. Southwest wind gusts pick up to 30-45 mph, strongest from the White Mountains into the Little Colorado River valley including Winslow, Holbrook, and St Johns. Friday and Saturday - the next trough moves through the state. This one is forecast to be a bit colder and wetter than the Thursday system. Some timing uncertainty remains, with the latest EC solutions faster with the arrival of precipitation (mid day Friday) and other guidance holding off until Friday evening into Saturday. Expect temperatures to cool to below normal. Windy conditions persist Friday with widespread gusts 30-45 mph. The latest precipitation forecasts call for 0.10"-0.30" along the higher terrain above 6000 ft, with a trace to 0.10" for the lower elevations. Snow levels remain uncertain but could fall to near 7000 feet Friday night/Saturday morning with some light accumulation above 7500 feet. Drier/warmer conditions return Sunday. && .AVIATION...Monday 22/18Z through Tuesday 23/18Z...VFR conditions under mostly sunny skies. Localized MVFR will be possible due to FU/HZ near prescribed fires with the main impacts expected near KPAN. SW surface winds at 10-15 kts, gusting near 20-25 kts will become light and variable after 02Z. Even stronger gusts expected after 17Z Tuesday. OUTLOOK...Tuesday 23/18Z through Thursday 25/18Z...Mostly VFR with occasional MVFR conditions in FU/HZ near prescribed fires. SW winds 10-20 kts, gusting near 20-30 kts from roughly 16Z through 02Z each day. Winds will subside overnight. A slight chance of SH enters the forecast on Thursday. && .FIRE WEATHER...Tuesday and Wednesday...Dry and warm, but temperatures cooling with southwest winds gradually increasing each day. Expect winds at 10-15 mph, gusting 20-30 mph Tuesday with peak gusts of 25-35 mph on Wednesday. Minimum RH will be 10-20% in the afternoons. Thursday through Saturday...Temperatures continue cooling. A chance of showers (20-40%) Thursday will primarily be for Coconino County; wetting rains unlikely. Southwest winds will peak Thursday at 15-30 mph, gusting 30-45 mph. Minimum RH will increase to around 20-40% with much higher overnight recovery values. Scattered showers are expected across northern Arizona overnight Friday through Saturday. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ PUBLIC...JJ AVIATION...Mazon FIRE WEATHER...Mazon For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff