####018006900#### FXUS66 KMTR 032014 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 1214 PM PST Wed Dec 3 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1213 PM PST Wed Dec 3 2025 - Offshore winds relaxing through the day across the higher elevations - Benign conditions and no precipitation expected through the next seven days - Slight warming trend begins Friday through the weekend && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 1213 PM PST Wed Dec 3 2025 (This evening through Thursday) Satellite imagery shows extensive high clouds across the Central Coast, medium-level clouds across the Bay Area south of the Golden Gate, and a thinner layer of high clouds across the North Bay. Across the higher elevations, strong northeasterly winds continue to gust up to 45 to 50 mph across favored locations, more generally around 25 to 35 mph. These are being driven by the interaction between a positively tilted trough extending from the Upper Midwest into the Desert Southwest and an upper level ridge off the coast of the Pacific Northwest and British Columbia. The combination results in northerly flow over the region and a offshore pressure gradient, although with the trough starting to move eastwards, the gradient is gradually relaxing. The SFO-WMC gradient, which peaked at -8.9 mb as of 7 AM this morning, has slackened to -6.3 as of Noon. Model guidance shows the gradient continuing to gradually relax over the next 24 hours. Another push of offshore flow is expected tonight, but the gusts will not be as strong and the winds should return to a more northwesterly onshore flow tomorrow. High temperatures today and tomorrow will hover in the upper 50s to the middle 60s for the lower elevations, down to the lower to middle 50s in the higher elevations. Lows will reach the upper 30s to the lower 40s in the inland valleys, and into the middle to upper 40s along the coast. Chilly lows in the lower to middle 30s are expected in the southern reaches of Monterey County, but the coverage is not widespread enough, especially across the southern Salinas Valley, to issue a Cold Weather Advisory. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 1213 PM PST Wed Dec 3 2025 (Thursday night through next Tuesday) The forecast conditions remain remarkably stable with the conditions remaining generally dry and benign through the 7 day outlook. Although a couple of storm systems will impact the West Coast, the upper level flow will divert them to the north. As a result, while the Pacific Northwest and the North Coast see a couple shots of rain, the current forecast depicts the rain chances for our part of the state remaining offshore, sometimes tantalizing close to the shoreline. The eastern Pacific ridge will build into the southwestern US during this time, allowing a gradual warming trend to begin on Friday and last through the weekend. By the early part of next week, temperatures in the inland valleys could rise into the upper 60s to lower 70s, with the coast remaining in the lower to middle 60s. The next chance for substantial rainfall across the region lie closer to the middle of the month, and at this point in the forecast, the uncertainty can be best described as "Here be dragons". Considering that the moisture to power such a system currently lies in the western Pacific and the parent low pressure system has yet to form over Asia, this is not surprising. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 923 AM PST Wed Dec 3 2025 Another nice day to fly. High confidence in VFR conditions through the TAF period. Offshore winds will continue for most terminals, with a weak sea breeze likely to develop in the afternoon. Easterly winds could be gusty overnight, but the sustained winds should be gentle all day. High clouds will persist through the TAF period for all terminals, but low clouds are very unlikely with the dry, offshore flow. Vicinity of SFO...VFR conditions through the TAF period. A gentle SE wind may shift to NE at times through the late morning. By 00Z, there is a good chance for a sea breeze to flip the wind direction to westerly, but that's not a guarantee. The 16Z GFSLAMP guidance does not have any onshore wind component throughout the forecast. The TAF however nods to what happened yesterday under a similar mesoscale set-up and eventually brings a sea breeze this evening. SFO Bridge Approach...Persistent high clouds should remain well above the approach. Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR conditions through the TAF period. Offshore winds should flip to northerly by early afternoon before sliding back to easterly overnight. && .MARINE... (Today through Monday) Issued at 923 AM PST Wed Dec 3 2025 Moderate NW winds will persist through the day and decrease to a gentle breeze by Thursday. Rough seas in the outer waters will gradually diminish overnight as the winds ease and westerly swell abates. After a brief favorable weather window on Thursday, northerly winds will increase to a fresh to strong breeze on Friday, rebuilding moderate seas up to 8 feet. && .BEACHES... Issued at 425 AM PST Wed Dec 3 2025 A Beach Hazards Statement remains in effect for the coastline from Sonoma County to Monterey County through 10 PM PST Wednesday evening. Breaking waves 10 to 14 feet, with long lulls of 10 to 20 minutes or more between largest sets can be expected. Some of the favored break points may exceed 20 feet at times. Forerunners will be 18+ seconds with heights of 2-5 feet into tonight resulting in the greatest risk for sneaker waves. This combined with high astronomical tides in the morning hours will increase the aforementioned risk. Sneaker waves can unexpectedly run significantly farther up the beach than normal, including over rocks and jetties. Rip currents are typically more frequent and stronger in the vicinity of jetties, inlets, and piers. RGass && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Beach Hazards Statement until 10 PM PST this evening for CAZ006- 505-509-529-530. Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 PM PST Sunday for CAZ006-506-508- 529-530. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PST this afternoon for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM Thursday to 3 PM PST Friday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...DialH LONG TERM....DialH AVIATION...Flynn MARINE...Flynn Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea ####018006894#### FXUS63 KJKL 032015 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 315 PM EST Wed Dec 3 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Drier and cold weather will persist through Thursday. - Wintery precipitation is possible late Thursday night into Friday morning, with the greatest chances in Southeastern Kentucky. - The pattern will remain active through early next week, although long term forecast confidence is low. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1043 AM EST WED DEC 3 2025 Extensive low clouds remain across the Commonwealth and much of KY. A few higher elevations in the Cumberland plateau and Southern Appalachians are above the cloud level. Guidance has moisture decreasing as the afternoon progresses and there may be a few hour window of scattering out before mid level clouds increase ahead of the next system. Opted to increase sky cover a bit and lower high temperatures a couple of degrees on average for today. UPDATE Issued at 730 AM EST WED DEC 3 2025 Under extensive cloud cover, temperatures did not bottom out quite as low as was forecast, and the starting point for this morning has been adjusted upward. It's also observed that the cloud layer has become is so thin that high terrain is poking above it now. Black Mtn. is seen with a tiny break in clouds in satellite imagery, as is some of the high terrain in WV. It will be interesting to see what transpires as the overcast erodes, and it is probably safe to say that it will differ from what is forecast. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday) Issued at 245 AM EST WED DEC 3 2025 Shallow low level moisture lingers in the wake of Monday night's weather system, with cold air advection in upslope flow helping to keep it trapped beneath an inversion up to this point. This has kept low clouds socked in. The clouds extend all the way west to IL, MO, and AR early this morning, near the surface ridge. The high will shift east today and cold air advection will ease. Along with minimal heating (albeit just about the weakest solar insolation of the year), this should finally allow clouds to break up. However, timing is still very uncertain. Have used a gradual decrease in clouds due to the uncertainty in timing, when in reality it may be much more abrupt whenever it happens in any given location. Assuming clearing happens by tonight, the night should start out relatively clear, along with light winds as the high center passes over. This should allow a quick drop in temperatures after sunset. A large lobe rotating through a mean upper trough over eastern Canada will support another cold front to drop south and approach us from the north overnight, reaching near the Ohio River by dawn. Clouds will increase overnight as the front nears, slowing our drop in temperatures. Some light precip could occur to our north with the front. However, the front will be running out of available moisture as it drops south, and we shouldn't see anything more than clouds with its passage on Thursday. The clouds and cold fropa will hold max temps down. .LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 315 PM EST WED DEC 3 2025 The forecast period begins with a surface low-pressure system tracking northeastward from the Tennessee Valley, traversing the CWA. This system straddles the short-term and extended forecast periods. We have opted to segment the discussion based on the phasing transition from wintry precipitation to all rain. Consequently, this discussion begins Friday afternoon, where warm frontal passage and diurnal warming will support precipitation primarily as rain. The system is forecast to exit the region by late Saturday morning. However, a brief period of wintry mix remains plausible on the back side of the departing system as cold-air advection returns to the region. Surface high pressure builds into the area following the systems departure. Nevertheless, upper-level southwesterly flow will maintain relatively mild temperatures for Saturday. An upper-level trough stalled over the Hudson Bay area and an impinging shortwave trough moving off the Rocky Mountains will interact beginning Sunday, driving the weather pattern from Sunday through late Monday. The first of these perturbations is associated with a dry cold front extending from the Hudson Bay trough. A key feature is the zone of baroclinicity that the secondary low-pressure system, originating from the Rockies, can track along. This secondary system is more moisture-rich and should yield higher probabilities for rain and snow beginning early Sunday morning and persisting through late Monday morning. Precipitation type (p-type) will be temperature-driven, with daytime temperatures generally supporting rain, while overnight temperatures will favor a wintry mix or snow. Model confidence is low regarding thermal profiles and the precise track of the low-pressure center. Therefore, little confidence is placed in deterministic snowfall totals. Behind this system, surface high pressure will rebuild across the area for Tuesday, but model trends indicate another system approaching by the end of the forecast period. The period will be characterized by multiple synoptic disturbances traversing the area, bringing an array of precipitation types followed by interludes of high pressure. Temperatures are generally forecast to remain below average for this time of year. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon) ISSUED AT 140 PM EST WED DEC 3 2025 With high pressure and upper ridging passing through the region, low clouds were mixing out nearer to the TN and VA borders at issuance time, but MVFR lingered at the TAFS sites. Through the next 2 to 5 hours, the low clouds should continue to mix out/erode to the north and west with improvements through the MVFR range and into the VFR range for all the TAF sites. VFR should then prevail in most areas until about 03Z when clouds may begin to spread back into the area as a cold front approaches and a general trend toward MVFR for all TAF sites that continues into the last 6 hours of the period. The more southern TAF sites, KLOZ and KSME, and areas nearer to the VA border and TN border may largely remain or return to VFR during the last 6 hours of the period. Light west to southwest winds will prevail during the first 18 hours of the period and then a gradual shift to the west and then northwest at around 5KT to end the period. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...JP SHORT TERM...HAL LONG TERM...VORST AVIATION...JP ####018004464#### FXUS63 KICT 032016 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 216 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Patchy very light snow flurries and/or sprinkles possible through Thursday. Absolutely no accumulation or adverse impacts expected. - Chilly tonight through Thursday, with single digit wind chills early Thursday. - Moderating temperatures Friday through Saturday, with another substantial cool down Saturday night through Sunday night. - Possible light precipitation late Saturday through Sunday. - Above average temperatures probable Tuesday and Wednesday of next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 212 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025 PRECIPITATION: A deep cold frontal zone moving south through the region amidst weak- modest large scale lift ahead of an approaching western CONUS upper trough could support patchy very light snow flurries and/or sprinkles through Thursday. For tonight, thinking they will be primarily the first half of the night, and focusing mainly over southern Kansas Thursday. Weak to modest lift and very limited moisture will prevent any accumulation or adverse impacts. For late Saturday through Sunday...Could see some light precipitation late Saturday through Sunday, as a shortwave moves southeast through the region along with an associated cold front. The GFS continues to be a tad more bullish with PoPs compared to the ECMWF and CMC, although the latter models are showing a bit more precipitation than yesterday. If trends continue, wouldn't be surprised if some PoPs are eventually introduced into the forecast, including some light wintry precipitation. Either way, a major storm system looks unlikely, with any potential impacts likely more of a nuisance. Stay tuned as we refine forecast details in the coming days. TEMPERATURES: Arctic high pressure will continue to plunge south into Mid-America tonight and Thursday, supporting chilly well below average temperatures and breezy/gusty northeast winds. Early Thursday morning will likely be the coldest of the next 7-10 days, with single digit and low teens wind chills likely, and Thursday highs in the 30s. Moderating temperatures are likely Friday and Saturday, before another cold front brings temperatures down again Sunday and Monday, but probably not quite as chilly as tonight through Thursday. Taking a look ahead into next week...model consensus supports a return to above average temperatures for Tuesday and Wednesday, as a stout area of upper level high pressure gradually builds east out of the western CONUS. At this time, daytime highs in the 50s and overnight lows in the 30s look probable. Beyond that into late next week and next weekend, model solutions greatly diverge, with a large range in temperatures. Per NBM percentiles, the upper range is in the upper 50s for daytime highs, while the lower range is in the low-mid 30s. The battle is likely between solutions attempting to build the upper level high pressure further east over Mid-America (warmer), and solutions attempting to dig central-eastern CONUS upper troughing (colder). Consequently, forecast uncertainty is high surrounding temperatures, although mostly dry weather looks probable. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1123 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025 SCT-BKN MVFR clouds will gradually spread south across the area this afternoon and evening, as cold advection commences in wake of a cold front. Breezy/gusty north-northeast winds will also be common in wake of the front. Thinking the MVFR conditions will gradually give way to VFR conditions from north to south this evening, as drier low-level air moves in. Precipitation-wise, cannot rule out patchy light snow flurries and/or sprinkles, mainly from late this afternoon through the first half of the night areawide, and then again over southern Kansas Thursday, as shortwave energy approaching from the west interacts with the deep cold frontal zone across the Heartland. This activity will be very light, with absolutely no snow accumulation or adverse impacts expected due to weak lift and very limited moisture. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...ADK AVIATION...ADK ####018009382#### FXUS65 KRIW 032016 AFDRIW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Riverton WY 116 PM MST Wed Dec 3 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry and pleasant early December day across the Cowboy State today. - The first significant snowfall for the mountains of western WY looks to be on the horizon with snow arriving as early as Thursday afternoon/evening. - The heaviest snowfall looks to occur Friday night through Saturday morning with winds increasing at the same time which may lead to difficult driving conditions due to reduced visibilities and blow/drifting snow. - Dry conditions and warming temperatures are expected for locations east of the Divide through the weekend. A few isolated shower cannot be ruled out at times. && .UPDATE... Issued at 110 PM MST Wed Dec 3 2025 Many locations saw a fresh coating of snow this morning. Amounts ranged from 1 to 2 inches over central WY with higher amounts of 3 to 4 inches along the Lander Foothills. Other areas such as the Bighorn Basin, the Green River Basin, and Jackson Hole saw anywhere from a trace to a few inches. Skies are expected to gradually clear out through the afternoon. Highs today will range in the upper 20s to low 30s. Overnight lows are forecast to be chilly with freshly fallen snow and mostly clear skies leading to temperatures in the single digits to low teens. As mentioned in the forecast discussion winds will increase across portions of the state late this evening through Thursday. No major changes are expected compared to what was previously discussed in terms of the winds. Attention now turns to the potential for the first significant snowfall of the season across western WY. The setup remains mostly unchanged and this update will be focusing mainly on the impacts. Snowfall looks to begin Thursday afternoon with periods of moderate to heavy snowfall occurring through Saturday evening. The bulk of the snow will remain over the mountains for much of Thursday and Friday. However a few light snow showers may make their way into the western valleys of Jackson Hole and Star Valley. Snow accumulations for lower elevations may be around a few inches by the time Friday evening rolls around. There are some signs for a brief lull in snow during the day Friday but recent trends have shown this lull not being as prolonged as originally thought. The heaviest snowfall is expected to arrive by the afternoon/evening hours Friday through the morning hours on Saturday. Snowfall rates of 1 to 2 inches look likely over the higher elevation mountains. Lower elevations should see snowfall increase as well around this time with accumulating snow likely to begin and persist through Saturday morning. Winds of 20 to 30 mph will be possible during this heavy period of snowfall. Due to this blowing/drifting snow may occur along with reduced visibilities leading to overall difficult driving conditions for western mountain passes and lower elevations. Probabilistic guidance shows the higher elevations of the Tetons, Gros Ventre, Wyoming, and Salt River Ranges seeing a 70-90% for over a foot with a 30-60% for two feet or more across the higher peaks. Lower elevation valleys such as Jackson Hole and Star Valley look to have a 60-80% for 8 inches or more. At this time Winter Storm Watches have been issued for the Tetons, Gros Ventre, Wyoming, and Salt River Ranges. This watch starts Thursday evening through Saturday afternoon with a high likelihood of being upgraded to Warnings. Other locations such as the lower elevation valleys, YNP, and the Absarokas will not see any highlights at this time. However, there is a good chance for Advisory level criteria to be met so highlights for these areas may come within the next 24 hours. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 129 AM MST Wed Dec 3 2025 Snow continues to fall over central portions shortly after midnight this morning, as it progresses southward. This snow will end over the next few hours as drier air begins to settle into the area from the north. Snow will primarily be over before sunrise this morning, but a flurry or two cannot be ruled out through the rest of the morning. Wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph will occur across Sweetwater and southern Lincoln counties this morning, as the cold front continues to track across these areas. Blowing snow will be a concern for the morning commute across I-80, US-191 and South Pass/Hwy 28. These winds will decrease through the morning after sunrise, with light winds across the CWA today. Temperatures will be 5 to 15 degrees colder today, as clouds gradually scatter out through the day. Needless to say, it will be cold again tonight with lows in the single digits and teens across the area. Fog will be possible over Yellowstone and could infiltrate into the Jackson Valley from the north like it did Monday morning. Gusty winds will develop tonight over the east slopes of the Absaroka and Bighorn Mountains after midnight, due to a tightening 700mb temperatures gradient. Gusts of 30 to 40 mph will occur, with locally higher gusts around 50 mph near Clark. Similar winds with gusts of 25 to 35 mph will occur near Dubois, Crowheart and the Casper area. These winds will continue through the rest of the morning Thursday. A large ridge over the EPAC and a Hudson Bay upper low will remain in place through the rest of the week and be the primary drivers for our weather for the next several days. A northwest flow pattern will be in place over the region as a result. The PFJ will round the top of the ridge tonight into Thursday, bringing the next surge of Pacific moisture. This will bring light snow to northwestern portions during the day, with increasing chances over far western portions Thursday night. This will be the start of a multi-day snow event for western portions of the CWA. A break in the snow looks to occur Friday afternoon, before the next round quickly returns by Friday evening. There is a good chance for steady snow to then occur across the west from Friday night to early Sunday morning. Initial snowfall amounts (from Thursday afternoon to Saturday night) range between 1 to 2 feet in the western mountains and 8 to 12 inches in the Jackson and Star Valleys. Again, this will be spread out over a 3-day period with the heaviest snowfall occurring Friday night. Details for areas east of the Divide and southern portions are not as clear. There is a chance for light snow over these areas Thursday night and Friday night, but confidence is low for any real impacts at this point. However, gusty winds do look likely especially between Kemmerer and Casper. Gusts of 25 to 35 mph Thursday afternoon and evening and similar speeds returning Friday afternoon. Winds of 30 to 45 mph are possible Friday night, as the stronger storm system moves over through the area. The east slopes of the Absaroka, Bighorn and Wind River Mountains will have similar conditions. The potential for high winds (wind gusts 60+ mph) will have to be monitored, as models are forecasting 700mb winds of 50+ kt occurring over southern portions, and areas east of the Divide (the Cody Foothills, the Wind River Basin, and Johnson/Natrona counties). Additional snow chances over northwestern portions will be possible Sunday through Tuesday, as the ridge flattens. The pattern looks to remain active next week and are making up for the warm and relatively quiet November. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1009 AM MST Wed Dec 3 2025 West of the Divide...KBPI/KJAC/KPNA/KRKS Terminals. Mid-level clouds should clear through the day, with VFR conditions through the period. Winds will be relatively light and diurnally driven today into tonight. Clouds begin to increase late tonight and Thursday morning ahead of the next weather system. Current models hold off snow chances until the very end, or after, the period. At KJAC, a few models show snow chances arriving as early as late Thursday morning, but the consensus is until at least 21Z, where there is a PROB30 group. Chances increase further after the period. East of the Divide...KCOD/KCPR/KLND/KRIW/KWRL Terminals. VFR conditions prevail through the period as low to mid-level clouds thin through the early afternoon. Winds remain relatively light and diurnally driven through this evening. An approaching weather system brings increasing winds and mid-to-high-level clouds starting tonight. Strongest winds will initially be seen over the mountains, so wind shear is possible at KCOD starting around 02Z. Elsewhere, winds increase towards the end of the period or shortly after. Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZDV and ZLC for the latest information on icing and turbulence forecasts. && .RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Storm Watch from Thursday afternoon through Saturday afternoon for WYZ012-024. && $$ UPDATE...Dziewaltowski DISCUSSION...LaVoie AVIATION...Wittmann ####018005647#### FXUS63 KABR 032017 AFDABR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 217 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Cold temperatures expected tonight with lows in the single digits below and teens below zero. Wind chill values will range in the teens and twenties below zero east of the Missouri River. - Downslope winds expected in the Sisseton Hills region on Thursday, with gusts potentially over 40 mph. This may create areas of blowing/drifting snow. - Snow chances (20-40%) return Friday and Saturday through early next week as more weather systems have the potential to move through the region. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 216 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025 As of 2pm, satellite indicates clear skies James Valley and eastward with stratus clouds continuing over central South Dakota and upstream through western ND. Current temperatures range in the single digits to the mid teens, warmest over south central SD. A 1035mb arctic high will be directly overhead by this evening, tracking southeast through the overnight with the center of the high over IA by 12Z Thursday. Winds will diminish west to east across the CWA through this evening becoming light through about 06Z. Models indicate the coldest temperatures will be around the 06Z timeframe before winds shift out of the south/southwest and WAA moves in as the CWA will be on the downstream side of a surface trough that will be positioned south of a low in Canada. HREF grand ensemble 925mb temps look to range between -9 to -17C at 06Z, coldest James Valley and eastward and 850mb temps of -10 to -15C. Kept the trend of dropping the surface temps below mean NBM guidance, closer to the 25th percentile. Forecast lows range from the single digits above zero to around 11 degrees west of the Mo River to the single digits to the teens below zero east of here, coldest over the James Valley. Minimum wind chill values east of the Mo River are forecast to range in the teens to twenties below zero. With the WAA after midnight, we will see temps rise from west to east across the CWA, with temps by 12Z Thursday ranging from the single digits below zero to the lower teens, highest over south central SD. As the surface trough/warm front track east across the CWA through the day Thursday, highs will be warmer ranging in the 20s and 30s! Our next concern will be the gusty winds over and downslope of the Coteau for Thursday as we see an area of higher winds on the downstream side of this 925/sfc trough over the eastern Dakotas into western MN. HREF 925mb winds indicate speeds between 30-40mph out of the southwest at the top of the inversion layer. HREF is showing surface gusts of 30-45mph with NBM max gusts around the same. Comparing NBM/NBM5.0 is pretty close, about 5kts higher in any one location. The highest winds at 925mb, therefore, the highest gusts at the surface will be in the morning through the late afternoon with winds diminishing towards the evening. EC EFI does highlight this potential well with pockets of 0.6 to 0.7 with EFI of zero for the downsloping wind gusts. Drifting to patchy blowing snow is expected, luckily with the warming temps expected and snow age this should prevent any lofting/widespread blowing snow. Through at at least early next week we continue in a persistent northwest flow pattern with a near stationary mid level low over the Hudson Bay and a ridge to our west. Models indicate several embedded shortwaves/lows tracking southeast and over the Northern Plains through the extended. With the low mentioned above tracking across Canada Thursday/Friday and its shortwave, HRRR along with ENS/GEFS indicate the chance of flurries/light snow ahead of a cold front late Thursday night through Friday within this surface trough. NBM did not show anything so with collab from the offices, we increased pops and used WPC for QPF to show for this. Pops range from 15-30% Friday with a couple tenths of snow accumulation possible over north central through northeastern SD. Our more notable wave/Clipper low looks to possibly affect the region Saturday, however low confidence exists due to model disagreement at this time on track and intensity of low and where the "highest snowfall" may occur. GEPS has a track more over central SD and ENS more across the northern CWA. NBM probability of 24hr snow ending 12Z Sunday>0.10" is 45-70% with 25% or less for an inch of snow. The good news for now is that we are not expecting heavy snow for any one period during the extended. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1118 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025 Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG The stratus layer that was overhead is continuing to decay over KABR and KATY while the stratus continues over central South Dakota. MVFR cigs are forecast to continue at KPIR through the afternoon while the rest of the TAF sites will overall be at VFR. Northerly surface winds will become light and variable this evening, before switching to a southerly direction overnight. Winds will be breezier for Thursday with gusts of 15-20kts at KPIR and KMBG and gusts of 20-30kts at KABR/KATY with the highest gusts at KATY per downsloping winds along the eastern slopes of the Sisseton Hills through the morning and afternoon. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...MMM AVIATION...MMM