####018006157#### FXUS65 KSLC 140415 AFDSLC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT 1015 PM MDT Sat Jun 13 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Moisture remains in place across southern UT tomorrow afternoon resulting in more widespread thunderstorms. Strong to potentially severe wind gusts with isolated flash flooding appears possible with these storms. - Hot and dry conditions develop Monday as high pressure builds over the region. Widespread valley HeatRisk values develop across valley locations, particularly Tuesday and Wednesday. - Critical fire weather conditions return to UT Tuesday and Wednesday as winds pick up out of the northwest. && .DISCUSSION... Currently, a midlevel shortwave trough is progressing southeast across the MT/ID border with another weaker shortwave stalled over the CA coastline providing persistent SW'erly flow across southern UT. With time, these two waves will phase together into tomorrow afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms will persist in some capacity across southern UT into central UT keeping the airmass moist and reinforcing a thermal boundary further north. This moist and unstable airmass will favor thunderstorm development across central and southern UT tomorrow afternoon as midlevel ascent increases with the troughs phasing together as they move southeast. With CAPE on the order of 500-750J/kg amidst steep 0-3km LR's and DCAPE in excess of 1200J/kg, strong to severe gusts and potentially small hail cannot be ruled out with any storm that forms. Additionally, PWATs ranging from 0.6-0.9" may yield a localized flash flood threat for any slow-moving or terrain enhanced storms. High LCL's on the order of 2500m+ yield some uncertainty with how much precip will make it to the ground, though storm coverage may compensate and moisten the PBL potentially resulting in training storms yielding a heightened flash flooding threat. Overnight into Monday morning, a dry front will traverse the state as midlevel ridging begins to nudge into the area. Some residual moisture may result in some terrain driven thunderstorms across central and southern UT Monday afternoon, though these will be quite transient and isolated at best. Throughout the remainder of the period, an upper jet will progress south from Canada into the central plains, establishing a persistent troughing pattern across the central and eastern U.S.. This will keep much of the west underneath a building ridge, amplifying across each passing day. Hot and dry conditions are forecast to develop once again through the long term, potentially persisting into Saturday and beyond. HeatRisk will see an increase as this occurs, with the highest confidence of heat related issues developing Tuesday and Wednesday as HeatRisk enters the moderate range across most valleys. Additionally, as ridging builds in and tightens the pressure gradient Tuesday and Wednesday, midlevel northwesterly winds are forecast to see an enhancement. Given preceding dry conditions, these winds will mix to the surface with enhanced dry northwest winds overspreading much of UT Tuesday through Wednesday. As such, critical fire weather conditions are expected to return to the state Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons due to gusty surface winds. && .AVIATION...KSLC...The SLC terminal will see VFR conditions through the night with mostly clear skies. Light northerly winds will prevail for the remainder of the evening, becoming light and variable or light southeasterly overnight. Northwest winds are expected to return with the passage of a cold front between 15Z and 17Z. .REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the overnight hours across the airspace with generally light and terrain driven winds. A few showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue over portions of southwest Utah during the overnight and early morning hours, with a low chance of gusty winds. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are then expected to develop over southern Utah during the afternoon. Gusty winds will be possible with any storms that develop along with a low chance of brief MVFR conditions in heavier showers. && .FIRE WEATHER...High based showers and dry thunderstorms will continue across southern Utah into the evening hours. West of I-15 showers and thunderstorms moving out of Nevada will be capable of producing wetting rain this evening across zones 495, 497, and perhaps western portions of zone 496. Meanwhile areas further north will remain dry and mild through the remainder of the afternoon and evening. Moisture will increase across southern Utah Sunday bringing another round of showers and thunderstorms across southern Utah. Wetting rain will be likely with these storms along with lightning and gusty outflow winds. North of I-70, isolated high based showers and dry thunderstorms will impact mainly the higher terrain of central and perhaps northern Utah Sunday afternoon. High pressure will build into the region for much of next week bringing a return to hot and very dry conditions. By Tuesday daytime RH will fall into the single digits across most low-mid elevations, with poor overnight recovery below 30 percent. This high will remain centered to the west of the area through midweek, resulting in gusty northwest winds across areas east of I-15 as early as Monday afternoon, but more likely and widespread Tuesday and Wednesday. These winds coupled with the hot and very dry conditions will result in critical fire weather conditions Tuesday and Wednesday anywhere fuels are sufficiently dry east of I-15. && .SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UT...None. WY...None. && $$ PUBLIC...Worster AVIATION...Traphagan FIRE WEATHER...Seaman For more information from NOAA's National Weather Service visit... http://weather.gov/saltlakecity ####018010955#### FXUS61 KPHI 140418 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 1218 AM EDT Sun Jun 14 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Small Craft Advisories have been issued for most of the Atlantic Coastal waters and Delaware Bay beginning Sunday afternoon. Key message added for the potential for some severe thunderstorms on Thursday. Added enhanced wording to the forecast for tomorrow from 4 PM to 11 PM, mentioning the threat for frequent lightning and damaging wind gusts. Anybody with outdoor plans tomorrow should have multiple ways to receive warnings and stay weather aware! New Coastal Flood Advisory issued for tonight's high tide for the Jersey Shore, Delaware Beaches, and Delaware Bay communities. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening. 2. Widespread minor coastal flooding continues with the evening high tide cycles tonight along the Atlantic coast and Delaware Bay. A new Coastal Flood Advisory was issued for tonight's high tide. 3. Some severe thunderstorms possible Thursday afternoon and evening. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening. On Sunday, an expansive upper-level trough across much of eastern Canada will gradually shift eastward. Some stronger shortwave energy within the southern portion of the trough will slide across our area. At the surface, a cold front will be tied to this feature, which is forecast to cross through Sunday evening. There is also indications of a pre-frontal trough as well. The low to mid level flow will increase some in response to these features, which will increase both the warm air and low-level moisture advection. At this point it is fairly confident that showers and thunderstorms will be around portions of the area Sunday afternoon and evening. As stronger synoptic forcing arrives, guidance continues to indicate bulk shear values in excess of 40 kt, which will aid storm organization. Looking at other parameters, MLCAPE in the area should max out around 1000-1500 J/kg with decent low-level shear around 25- 30 kt. Low-level lapse rates will be in excess of 8 C/km, DCAPE will top out near 1000 J/kg, and PWATs will be near 1.8 inches, which support wet microbursts, indicating that damaging winds gusts are likely with any storm. Additionally, some guidance has continued to depict a localized corridor of backed surface winds, primarily over southwestern portions of the area, so an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out. One fly in the ointment though, is some forecast soundings (more notably the NAM) indicate an area of mid-level warming between 700-850 mb, which may keep the area capped through the afternoon. This is primarily confined to eastern locales, rather than western ones, however. Considering the above analysis and upon discussion with SPC, a SLIGHT risk of severe weather (level 2/5) has been maintained for Sunday. Timing at this point is a little more up in the air considering we may be capped through at least some of the afternoon. However, general indication is that at least one round of convection is expected somewhere between the 3-11 PM timeframe; with perhaps an organized linear feature possible. Given that PWATs are abnormally high, we also cannot rule out some localized flash flooding, especially near/over the urban corridor. KEY MESSAGE 2...Widespread minor coastal flooding continues with the evening high tide cycles tonight along the Atlantic coast and Delaware Bay. A new Coastal Flood Advisory was issued for tonight's high tide. Minor tidal flooding was observed on Saturday Night as a New Moon this weekend is resulting in higher than normal astronomical tides. Further rounds of tidal flooding are expected with the evening/nighttime high tide cycles tonight and potentially Monday for the Atlantic Coast and Delaware Bay. The tidal Delaware River and its tributaries could experience some spotty minor tidal flooding (non-advisory) with tonight's high tide but generally these astronomical tide driven flooding events produce more noteworthy impacts for the Atlantic coasts and Delaware Bay. The highest of the New Moon tides will be tonight and Monday night. A new Coastal Flood Advisory was issued for this evening for the same area it was last night (Jersey Shore/Delaware Beaches + Delaware Bay Communities + Middlesex County for the Raritan Bay). Tidal flooding is not currently expected along the eastern shore of Chesapeake Bay. KEY MESSAGE 3...Some severe thunderstorms possible Thursday afternoon and evening. An upper-level trough centered over south-central Canada is forecast to strengthen eastward and also southward across the Great Lakes. A strong shortwave rounding the base of this trough may result in a portion of it taking on a negative tilt across the eastern Great Lakes and toward New England during Thursday. This will also drive deepening surface low pressure up across the eastern Great Lakes and into adjacent Canada during Thursday. A strong cold front will then arrive into our area Thursday afternoon or Thursday evening. As the synoptic pattern evolves, the flow will increase out of the south and southwest. This will advect deeper moisture northward, and in tandem with strengthening warm air advection will lead to increased instability during the day Thursday. In addition, a strong mid to upper level jet streak is forecast to extend eastward from the eastern Great Lakes, with 40-70 knots of flow at 500 mb forecast across our area Thursday afternoon. This increased flow will result in greater shear magnitudes. While there are some timing differences among the guidance regarding the main features, the consensus is that enough instability should overlap with the stronger shear along with incoming stronger forcing. As a result, there is some severe thunderstorm potential Thursday afternoon and evening. As of now, damaging winds may be the primary threat especially if convection develops into a squall line, however if shear and instability ends up being even greater than all severe thunderstorm hazards may come into play. The details are much less certain at this time range though given the typical uncertainty with instability and the thermodynamic profiles. The forecast synoptic setup however with a deepening surface low tracking well to our northwest with stronger flow within a warmer and more moist environment suggests some risk for severe thunderstorms. && .AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. Tonight...VFR with increasing high clouds. West/southwest winds around 5 kt or less, becoming light and variable at times. High confidence. Sunday...Primarily VFR. Scattered showers and thunderstorms move through in the afternoon, getting to the Lehigh Valley between 20z-23z, the I-95 corridor between 22z-01z, and the South Jersey terminals after 01z-02z. Timing should come into better focus in future forecast cycles, but did add PROB30 groups for the I-95 and Lehigh Valley terminals. A brief period of IFR conditions are expected with any showers/thunderstorms that move over the terminal in addition to potential strong winds. Outside of any convection, winds start out of the southwest around 5-10 kt. Between 16z-18z, winds should increase to around 10-15 kt with gusts near 20 kt and go more south/southwesterly. Outlook... Sunday night...Sub-VFR conditions expected with any lingering showers and thunderstorms. Monday...VFR. Northwesterly wind gusts to 20 knots during the day. Tuesday...Mainly VFR. Wednesday...Some sub-VFR conditions with a few showers or a thunderstorm possible. Thursday...A period of sub-VFR conditions probable in the afternoon and evening as showers and some thunderstorms increase. && .MARINE... Small Craft Advisories have been issued for the Atlantic Coastal Waters from Sandy Hook NJ to Cape Henlopen DE from 1 PM Sunday to 12 AM Monday. Small Craft Advisories have also been issued for the Delaware Bay from 1 PM to 8 PM on Sunday. Southwest winds around 10-15 kt and seas of 2 feet or less are expected to continue through Sunday morning. By Sunday afternoon and into Sunday evening, southerly winds are expected to increase to around 15-20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas build from 2-4, potentially up to 5 feet. Scattered thunderstorms possible late Sunday afternoon and evening, otherwise fair weather. Outlook... Monday through Wednesday...The conditions are anticipated to be below Small Craft Advisory criteria. Thursday...A period of Small Craft Advisory conditions probable. Southerly wind gusts could near gale force for a time later Thursday. Some gusty thunderstorms late in the afternoon and evening possible. Rip Currents... For Sunday, winds become southerly and increase to 10-15 MPH with some higher gusts. However, a medium period swell around 6-8 seconds will continue along with breaking waves once again 2 feet or less for most beaches. The exception will be at southern facing beaches in Cape May and Atlantic counties where breaking waves in the surf zone will be up to 3 feet as the winds will be most directly onshore here. Therefore, the risk for the development of dangerous rip currents will be higher for these beaches, and a MODERATE risk is currently forecast for these two counties. For the remainder of the Jersey Shore and the Delaware Beaches, a LOW risk for the development of dangerous rip currents is forecast. For Monday, winds become northwest 10-15 mph with a continued medium southerly swell of 6-7 seconds. With breaking waves 2 feet or less, have gone with a LOW risk for all beaches. For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NJ...Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 AM EDT Monday for NJZ012>014-020>027. DE...Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 AM EDT Monday for DEZ002>004. MD...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ430-431. Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to midnight EDT tonight for ANZ450>454. && $$ DISCUSSION...DeSilva/Fitzsimmons/Gorse/Hoeflich AVIATION...DeSilva/Gorse/Hoeflich MARINE...DeSilva/Gorse ####018005498#### FXUS64 KLUB 140418 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 1118 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1107 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026 - Much cooler with shower and thunderstorm chances Sunday and Monday. - Hotter and drier mid-week followed by modest cooling and returning thunderstorm chances late next week. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Monday) Issued at 1107 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026 Saturday brought a hot day, with locations across the South Plains topping out in the middle and upper 90s. A few spots across the southeast Texas Panhandle even briefly touched the triple digits. Thankfully, a cold front will bring a substantial cool down for the second half of the weekend. As of late Saturday evening, the front was making its way southward through the central Texas Panhandle, and when aided by convective outflows from storms along and in advance of the front, the effective front will continue its trek into and through much of the South/Rolling Plains through early Sunday morning. Forcing along and above the frontal zone, in combination with an increasingly moist troposphere and a weak embedded mid-level disturbance, will support improving rain/storm chances along and behind the surface front/outflow. A modest southerly LLJ will veer through early Sunday, which when coupled with the diurnal minimum in instability, make the late-night into Sunday morning rain/storm coverage less certain. Regardless, most guidance supports at least scattered convection, favoring our northern zones, though 12Z Sunday. The better rain chances will expand southward over the remainder of our CWA through Sunday morning. The greatest risk with the overnight and Sunday morning activity will be locally heavy rain, thanks to efficient rain rates within the high-PWAT air, though gusty outflow winds and perhaps a few pockets of small hail could accompany any stronger cores. The best thunderstorm chances will shift south of the FA by late Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening, tied to the surface front which will stretch from the Permian Basin into the Big Country. Additional storms will form over the higher terrain of New Mexico, and with the mid-level flow veering west-northwesterly, we'll have to see if any of this activity can organize and maintain itself long enough to make it into our northwestern/western zone late Sunday evening/night. Guidance is mixed on this possibility, and with relatively low-end deep-layer shear and meager instability thanks to the cooler air, confidence is not too high on this. That said, locations near the TX/NM line will have the best chance of experiencing the late night convection. Widespread and persistent cloud cover, along with areas of rain, will keep temperatures from moving much on Sunday, with highs 15-25 degrees cooler than on Saturday. Most locations, other than the far southern zones, will likely see highs in the 70s. A cool June night will follow, with lows mostly in the mid to upper 50s on the Caprock and lower to mid-60s in the Rolling Plains. Northwesterly flow aloft will persist into early next week. This pattern will support at least a chance of evening/overnight convection moving out of New Mexico into our western/northwestern zone, though relatively cool conditions continuing into Monday will tend to limit the instability available to maintain the storms. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through next Saturday) Issued at 1107 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026 A warming and drying trend will follow on Tuesday as southerly winds and plentiful sunshine return to the region. High temperatures will rebound close to average, in the upper 80s and lower 90s. Thereafter, Wednesday still looks like it will be hottest day in the upcoming week as drier air and subtropical ridging aloft support widespread triple digit heat. A shortwave cruising across the Midwest, embedded within the southern flank of a broad trough/low, will send the next cold front into the region on Thursday. This front will supply modest cooling while also renewing thunderstorm chances locally, despite minimal to no upper level support. The front will begin to wash out on Friday, with hotter conditions expected to start next weekend. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 635 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026 A cold front moving southward out of southeast Colorado and southwest Kansas at 2330Z will pass through the terminals late tonight, around and after midnight. In addition to a northerly wind shift, shower/storm chances will increase behind the FROPA. KPVW and KCDS will have the best chance of seeing convection before daybreak Sunday, though confidence in coverage isn't very high, so have handled the possibility with VCTS/VCSH and PROB30 groups. KLBB will see the improving rain/storm chances toward and after daybreak Sunday, when all the terminals are expected to experience ceilings falling to MVFR (and possibly IFR). Areas of showers, perhaps a few embedded thunderstorms, will continue through much of Sunday as low clouds likely hold firm. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...23 LONG TERM....23 AVIATION...23