####018003903#### FXUS65 KTWC 140935 AFDTWC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 235 AM MST Tue May 14 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Warm, dry and locally breezy conditions will persist this week. High temperatures will be near to slightly above normal through Thursday, with highs warming to several degrees above normal Friday through the weekend. && .DISCUSSION...Overall, a fairly quiet weather pattern through the upcoming weekend, with just a few minor impacts. There is just enough mid level moisture in place for some afternoon/early evening buildups today through Thursday, especially in the White Mountains. A weak upper level low currently off the southern California coast will slowly shift east-northeast through Thursday, before shifting east of the region on Friday. This system will interact with the mid level moisture in place on Thursday, resulting in a slight chance of mainly dry thunderstorms in the White Mountains. That is, storms which produce erratic/gusty winds and lightning and little to no rainfall. This weak low will also tighten the gradient just enough to result in some elevated wind speeds and near critical fire weather conditions as it moves across the area on Wednesday and Thursday, especially to the east of Tucson. Winds will be southwest on Wednesday as this system approaches and then west-northwest on Thursday as the system lifts northeast of the area, with wind speeds of 15-20 mph and gusts to near 30 mph over Cochise, Graham and Greenlee counties. Otherwise, a shortwave ridge of high pressure will build in across the desert southwest over the upcoming weekend behind the system. This will lead to dry conditions returning areawide and warmer temperatures. High temperatures will top out 3-5 degrees above normal on Friday, warming to 6-8 degrees above normal Saturday and Sunday. The current forecast has 99 degrees for Tucson on both Saturday and Sunday. However, NBM probabilities of 100 degrees for Tucson are 29% for Saturday and 36% on Sunday. It will be real close to that century mark for a couple of hours each afternoon this weekend. && .AVIATION...Valid through 15/12Z. FEW-SCT clouds at 8k-11k ft AGL and some higher cirrus level clouds at times thru the forecast period. SFC wind less than 12 kts and variable in direction thru 14/18Z and again aft 15/04Z. SFC wind at 10-15 kts and gusts to 18-25 kts between 14/18Z and 15/04Z, with the strongest SFC wind east of KTUS in the vicinity of KALK, KDUG and KSAD. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...High temperatures will be within a couple of degrees of normal through Thursday. Highs then warm to 3-5 degrees above normal Friday and 6-8 degrees above normal Saturday and Sunday. Min RH values in the valleys will be in the single digits to lower teens the next 7 days, with values in the mountains generally between 10- 20 percent. 20-foot winds will follow typical diurnal wind trends this week, with afternoon and early evening gustiness due to strong surface heating. The strongest 20-foot winds appear to be Wednesday and Thursday, especially to the east of Tucson, with wind speeds of 15-20 mph and gusts to near 30 mph. Southwest winds are expected on Wednesday and west-northwest winds on Thursday. There will be just enough mid level moisture in place through Thursday for a few buildups during the afternoon and early evening hours in the White Mountains, especially Thursday. Any storms that do develop will be dry, with gusty/erratic winds and lightning, but little to no measurable rainfall. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Zell Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson ####018005570#### FXUS66 KSEW 140937 AFDSEW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Seattle WA 237 AM PDT Tue May 14 2024 .SYNOPSIS...A ridge of high pressure will provide dry and warmer conditions for the region through Wednesday. An upper trough dipping southward from British Columbia will produce clouds and cooler temperatures Thursday through Saturday along with a chance for showers across mainly northern portions of the area. Below normal temperatures and somewhat unsettled conditions could persist into the early part of next week. && .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...An upper ridge centered well to our southwest will build into the area today and Wednesday. This will allow for dry conditions and a modest warming trend. Low level onshore flow will keep temperatures in check with 60s for coastal areas and mid 60s to mid 70s for the interior lowlands. The upper ridge will flatten on Thursday in response to an upper level trough moving onshore over British Columbia. This will act to increase the onshore flow and the end result will be increasing cloud cover and cooler temperatures. Onshore flow becomes relatively strong Thursday afternoon into Thursday night and this will likely initiate a convergence zone over Skagit/Snohomish counties. .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...An upper trough axis will be over Western Washington on Friday for another mostly cloudy and cool day. The best chance for showers will be over the mountains and across northern portions of the lowlands. Snow levels will dip to around 5000 feet...something to consider if you've got hiking plans in the higher backcountry late this week. For the weekend and beyond, uncertainty is the word for the day to day forecast. Cluster plots show a considerable spread in solutions. Ensemble height anomalies show ridging retrograding well offshore with a mean upper trough position over the Northern Rockies heading into early next week. While not a particularly wet scenario, this does suggest that temperatures will be a little below average and shower chances will linger...especially over the higher terrain. 27 && .AVIATION...Upper level ridging in the eastern Pacific will keep northwesterly flow aloft over W WA at least into Wednesday. Surface flow this early morning generally light and variable with a few exceptions reporting northerly winds 5-10 kts. Majority of TAF sites should see similar low level winds develop by this afternoon. Widespread VFR conditions this early morning with only UIL reporting MVFR. Inherited forecast suggests MVFR conditions after 12Z for many sites although current models backing away from those solutions. Will likely gear 12Z TAF updates more toward keeping VFR conditions in place, although with some SCT lower clouds possible. Locations more prone to lower cigs, such as HQM, OLM and PWT still seem on track for MVFR to emerge in the early morning before lifting by around 18Z. VFR conditions expected over the entire area this afternoon and evening. KSEA...VFR conditions expected to persist throughout the TAF period, although some SCT020 possible after 12Z. Fair conditions expected after 18Z, with only high clouds to consider. Northerly winds 6-10 kts will persist through about 15Z before turning light and variable. Northerly winds 5-10 kts return by 20Z and persist into early Wednesday morning. 18 && .MARINE...High pressure will build off the coast throughout this week. North to northwesterly surface winds starting out over the Pacific waters then pushing inland will give rise to SCA concerns throughout the day. Headlines are staggered from west to east and limited to the coastal waters and Strait at this time, although consideration for Strait-adjacent waters may be needed depending on future model solutions. At the very least, headlines with early morning forecast package will cover the next 12-18 hours, allowing for better near-term analysis. Another push down the Strait is possible for Wednesday into Thursday while the coast may see speeds ramp up for late Thursday and all of Friday. Seas will hold around 4 to 6 ft through Friday before increasing 8 to 12 ft from Friday into the weekend. 18 && .HYDROLOGY...The daily hydrology discussion has ended until the start of the next rainy season; it will only be updated as needed. && .SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 11 PM PDT this evening for West Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca. Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 5 AM PDT Wednesday for Central U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca- Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm- Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm. Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 5 AM PDT Wednesday for East Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca. Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Wednesday for Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm- Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm. && $$ ####018004811#### FXUS64 KBRO 140938 AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Brownsville TX 438 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Wednesday) Issued at 342 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024 The latest surface analysis depicts a weak cold from near Rio Grande City extending eastward to Edinburg to Harlingen then off the Lower Texas Coast. Temperatures range from the mid to upper 60s across the northern ranchlands to the lower 70s across the Rio Grande Valley with light north to northwest winds. The moist soils from very recent rainfall combined with light winds may lead to patchy fog across the area, especially across the northern ranchlands and the Lower Valley. The frontal boundary is expected to continue to push south of the Rio Grande River later this morning. Highs today will range from the lower 80s at the beaches, low to mid 90s across the Rio Grande Valley and the upper 90s to around 100 degrees across the Rio Grande Plains. Will lean towards a blend of the NBM/CONSShort for temperatures and dewpoints for today, as the NBM appears a little too warm. Light to moderate north to northeast winds will prevail today. Skies will become mostly cloudy tonight with lows falling into the 70s, a few locations could drop into the 60s across the northern ranchlands. In addition, patchy fog is possible again tonight, mainly across portions of the Brush Country. Southeast winds are expected to return on Wednesday which will provide for another warm day. Highs on Wednesday will generally be in the 90s, except for the 80s near the coast. Heat indices will range from 102 to 108, mainly across the Rio Grande Valley. Finally, continued slightly elevated seas will result in a Moderate Risk of rip currents at the local beaches through Wednesday. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday Night through Monday) Issued at 342 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024 A weak cold front is forecast to intrude into the BRO CWFA on Friday. This will produce a shot of isolated showers/thunderstorms at that time, while the remainder of the long term period remains generally dry. Of greater concern will be the return of above normal daytime high temperatures. When combined with relative humidity percentages, a Heat Advisory may be needed for portions of Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley on Thursday. Afterwards, an influx of dry air in the wake of the aforementioned cold front will produce heat index values approaching, but not meeting or exceeding, established Heat Advisory criteria. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1244 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024 Mostly clear skies with light and variable winds prevail across Deep South Texas early this morning. Latest satellite imagery shows some low level stratus starting to develop north of HRL. Some low cloud decks are expected to develop and spread across the area overnight leading to MVFR ceilings, especially after 09Z. Also, ground moisture from earlier convection combined with very light winds may allow patchy fog to develop. Will continue to mention a TEMPO for lower visibilities between 12 to 14Z at BRO and HRL. Low clouds and any fog should mix out later this morning with VFR conditions returning mid to late morning. Very light winds early this morning will increase and become northeasterly to easterly through the day. && .MARINE... (Today through Wednesday) Issued at 342 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024 A weak pressure field across the Western Gulf will provide light to moderate winds and low to moderate seas along the Lower Texas Coast. Northeasterly winds today will become easterly tonight and southeasterly on Wednesday as high pressure moves eastward across the northern Gulf. (Wednesday Night through Monday) Although a weak cold front will intrude into the western Gulf of Mexico on Friday, high pressure will be the dominant feature along the Lower Texas Coast. Generally moderate winds and seas will prevail, and Small Craft Exercise Caution and Small Craft Advisory are not anticipated to be needed during the period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 92 74 91 80 / 10 0 10 0 HARLINGEN 94 71 93 77 / 10 0 0 0 MCALLEN 97 74 95 79 / 10 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 97 71 96 79 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 84 78 84 80 / 10 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 88 73 88 78 / 10 0 0 0 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Caceres-63 LONG TERM/UPPER AIR...Tomaselli-66