####018006614#### FXUS61 KBGM 130751 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 251 AM EST Sat Dec 13 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A cold Canadian air mass will continue to pour into the Northeast through the weekend and into early next week with persistent on and off light snow. A milder stretch of weather is anticipated to begin around mid-week with temperatures rising and chances for rain and snow later in the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Southwesterly flow will persist this morning, allowing for a brief dry period before the next system approaches. An upper level low over the western Great Lakes will begin digging northeastward through the day, strengthening the southwesterly flow and advecting showers into central NY ahead of an approaching cold front. Temperatures aloft remain cold, around -10 degrees C, while surface temperatures rise into the upper 20s to low 30s this afternoon. Despite marginal surface temperatures precipitation is expected to fall primarily as snow. Light accumulations of a few tenths of an inch are expected for most areas, with locally higher amounts of 1 to 2 inches possible across northern Oneida county. The bulk of the precipitation associated with this system is expected tonight as the cold front moves through the area. Additional snowfall amounts of up to an inch are expected across central NY, with 1 to 3 inches possible across northeast PA. Overnight temperatures will fall into the upper single digits to teens. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Much colder air settles in behind the front with 850 mb temperatures falling to around -18 degrees C by Sunday afternoon. High temperatures Sunday will remain well below average, generally in the upper teens to lower 20s. West to northwest flow will advect this frigid air mass across the Great Lakes, supporting multi-band lake effect snow showers through Sunday. A passing trough axis late Sunday afternoon will further enhance lake effect activity. Given the wind direction and model guidance, lake effect bands may also develop off the Finger Lakes. Overall, light snowfall accumulations are expected, with a few tenths of an inch across most of the area. Locally higher amounts up to around an inch are possible across the eastern finger lakes region. Lake effect snow showers will continue overnight into Monday as temperatures fall into the single digits to lower teens. Another clipper system is expected to track across Ontario on Monday, with light snow likely developing during the afternoon in response to warm advection ahead of the system. Moisture with this clipper system appears limited outside of lake effect regions, however, an additional 1 to 2 inches of snowfall remains possible by Tuesday morning. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Lake effect snow showers may linger behind the departing system though Tuesday afternoon, primarily across north central NY. By Tuesday night into Wednesday, the broader pattern begins to transition as flow becomes more zonal with a developing southwesterly component.This shift will support a warming trend through the end of the week. Embedded shortwave disturbances within the zonal flow will periodically move through the region. With day time temperatures rising above freezing and nighttime lows falling below freezing Wednesday and Thursday, precipitation type during this period will be variable.At this time, Thursday appears to be the warmest day of the period, with highs reaching the lower to mid 40s. This warmth will be short lived, as another system approaches from the west Thursday night into Friday. The initial phase of this system is expected to bring rain showers, transitioning to snow by early Friday morning. Model guidance begins to diverge towards the end of the forecast period, however the overall pattern appears to remain active through Saturday. && .AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Lingering MVFR CIGs are expected at ITH over the hour or two, otherwise generally VFR conditions are expected through early to mid-morning hours. Then, a fast moving front will bring snow showers and flurries from about ITH, north to SYR and RME... likely starting around 14z this morning. ITH will be right on the southern edge of the snow shower activity, so confidence in restrictions is lower here. Added in a tempo MVFR restriction here from 14-16z this morning to cover the potential. SYR and RME are expected to see some steadier light snow, with IFR restrictions (VSBYs) between about 14-18 or 19z today. The snow showers activity is then expected to slide off and exit to the southeast of these two taf sites between 18-22z this afternoon. After this timeframe, a return to VFR conditions is expected for RME and SYR (moderate confidence). Further south, ELM and BGM are expected to see MVFR CIGs much of the day today, with higher confidence at BGM. No snow is expected, other than some brief flurries or a stray snow showers, as the bulk of the activity remains north of these two terminals. The next round of snow then moves in from the southwest, right around 00z this evening, quickly overspreading AVP and BGM. As the light snow moves in IFR restrictions are expected at these two terminals; mainly from 01-06z, and it could linger longer at AVP. Further northwest, ELM and ITH are expected to also see light snow arrive around 01z Sunday, with only enough confidence to shower lower end MVFR vsbys here. Will watch trends for these two taf sites, and if the steadier snow shifts further NW with this weak system, some IFR restrictions would also be possible. Expected light south winds early this morning, turning southwest and eventually west-southwest and increasing (8-18kts) through the day today. Winds turn west and decrease under 8 kts this evening. Outlook... Sunday through Monday...Occasional restrictions with a period of scattered snow showers. Highest coverage shifts to KITH,KELM and KBGM later Sunday and Sunday night. Tuesday... Mainly VFR. Wednesday...Potential frontal passage with rain showers and minor restrictions possible. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ES NEAR TERM...ES/JAB SHORT TERM...ES LONG TERM...ES AVIATION...MJM/MWG ####018004056#### FXUS64 KLZK 130751 AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 151 AM CST Sat Dec 13 2025 ...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 149 AM CST Sat Dec 13 2025 -Very cold conditions move into the state for Sunday into Monday...with wind chills in the single digits and teens Sunday. Lows will be in the teens and 20s Sunday morning...and mainly in the teens for Monday morning -Warmer conditions return starting Tuesday into much of the upcoming week -Mainly dry conditions expected into Tuesday...but some rain chances return for Wednesday and especially Thursday of next week && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 149 AM CST Sat Dec 13 2025 The weak cold front that moved into the state on Fri afternoon has dropped south across SWRN sections of the state...resulting in generally cooler temps early this Sat morning for most areas with light NRLY winds and drier air filtering south. However...some moisture was beginning to lift north over the this front over SWRN sections...initially causing some fog...but has be more recently generating some low CIGs as the drier air undercuts this moisture. Further north...some low clouds and patchy fog were dropping south into NRN AR as colder air continues to drop south. Increased cloud cover and NRLY flow will keep temps cooler today than on Fri...with highs only in the 40s and 50s. A new surge of colder air will come late this afternoon and tonight as a new front drops south. This will bring much colder air to the state by Sun morning. Temps by just after sunrise Sun will have dropped into the teens across NRN sections...and 20s further south. A NRLY breeze will remain around this time...resulting in wind chill values in the single digits and teens for most areas. There may be some isolated spots in NRN AR see wind chill values dip to around or even just below zero Sun morning. Highs on Sun afternoon will remain well below normal in the 20s and 30s for most areas. Winds will relax by Sun night into Mon morning...allowing most areas to see temps drop into the teens for most areas as SFC high pressure settles across the state. There may also be some areas seen actual temps drop into the single digits Mon morning. SRLY flow will return by Tue...with warming conditions expected by the middle of the week. Temps will warm to around or even above normal by this timeframe. Some small rain chances may return to the forecast Wed into Thu as a weak upper wave passes overhead. However...better rain chances will be seen during the daytime hrs on Thu into Thu night as a new cold front surges SE through the region. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 149 AM CST Sat Dec 13 2025 Some patchy fog and MVFR CIGs may be seen during the morning hrs...with dominant VFR conditions expected by later this Sat afternoon. NRLY flow will increase later this afternoon into tonight as a new stronger cold front drops south into the state. Some gusts may approach 20 kts at times Sat night into Sun morning. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 48 18 30 15 / 0 0 0 0 Camden AR 55 29 35 17 / 10 20 0 0 Harrison AR 48 14 29 17 / 0 0 0 0 Hot Springs AR 49 25 35 19 / 0 10 0 0 Little Rock AR 47 24 32 18 / 0 0 0 0 Monticello AR 56 28 33 19 / 10 20 0 0 Mount Ida AR 53 26 38 19 / 0 0 0 0 Mountain Home AR 46 15 29 15 / 0 0 0 0 Newport AR 45 18 29 15 / 0 0 0 0 Pine Bluff AR 50 25 32 18 / 10 10 0 0 Russellville AR 50 23 36 19 / 0 0 0 0 Searcy AR 47 21 30 14 / 0 0 0 0 Stuttgart AR 48 22 30 18 / 0 10 0 0 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...62 AVIATION...62 ####018006597#### FXUS61 KBGM 130751 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 251 AM EST Sat Dec 13 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A cold Canadian air mass will continue to pour into the Northeast through the weekend and into early next week with persistent on and off light snow. A milder stretch of weather is anticipated to begin around mid-week with temperatures rising and chances for rain and snow later in the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Southwesterly flow will persist this morning, allowing for a brief dry period before the next system approaches. An upper level low over the western Great Lakes will begin digging northeastward through the day, strengthening the southwesterly flow and advecting showers into central NY ahead of an approaching cold front. Temperatures aloft remain cold, around -10 degrees C, while surface temperatures rise into the upper 20s to low 30s this afternoon. Despite marginal surface temperatures precipitation is expected to fall primarily as snow. Light accumulations of a few tenths of an inch are expected for most areas, with locally higher amounts of 1 to 2 inches possible across northern Oneida county. The bulk of the precipitation associated with this system is expected tonight as the cold front moves through the area. Additional snowfall amounts of up to an inch are expected across central NY, with 1 to 3 inches possible across northeast PA. Overnight temperatures will fall into the upper single digits to teens. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Much colder air settles in behind the front with 850 mb temperatures falling to around -18 degrees C by Sunday afternoon. High temperatures Sunday will remain well below average, generally in the upper teens to lower 20s. West to northwest flow will advect this frigid air mass across the Great Lakes, supporting multi-band lake effect snow showers through Sunday. A passing trough axis late Sunday afternoon will further enhance lake effect activity. Given the wind direction and model guidance, lake effect bands may also develop off the Finger Lakes. Overall, light snowfall accumulations are expected, with a few tenths of an inch across most of the area. Locally higher amounts up to around an inch are possible across the eastern finger lakes region. Lake effect snow showers will continue overnight into Monday as temperatures fall into the single digits to lower teens. Another clipper system is expected to track across Ontario on Monday, with light snow likely developing during the afternoon in response to warm advection ahead of the system. Moisture with this clipper system appears limited outside of lake effect regions, however, an additional 1 to 2 inches of snowfall remains possible by Tuesday morning. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Lake effect snow showers may linger behind the departing system though Tuesday afternoon, primarily across north central NY. By Tuesday night into Wednesday, the broader pattern begins to transition as flow becomes more zonal with a developing southwesterly component.This shift will support a warming trend through the end of the week. Embedded shortwave disturbances within the zonal flow will periodically move through the region. With day time temperatures rising above freezing and nighttime lows falling below freezing Wednesday and Thursday, precipitation type during this period will be variable.At this time, Thursday appears to be the warmest day of the period, with highs reaching the lower to mid 40s. This warmth will be short lived, as another system approaches from the west Thursday night into Friday. The initial phase of this system is expected to bring rain showers, transitioning to snow by early Friday morning. Model guidance begins to diverge towards the end of the forecast period, however the overall pattern appears to remain active through Saturday. && .AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Lingering MVFR CIGs are expected at ITH over the hour or two, otherwise generally VFR conditions are expected through early to mid-morning hours. Then, a fast moving front will bring snow showers and flurries from about ITH, north to SYR and RME... likely starting around 14z this morning. ITH will be right on the southern edge of the snow shower activity, so confidence in restrictions is lower here. Added in a tempo MVFR restriction here from 14-16z this morning to cover the potential. SYR and RME are expected to see some steadier light snow, with IFR restrictions (VSBYs) between about 14-18 or 19z today. The snow showers activity is then expected to slide off and exit to the southeast of these two taf sites between 18-22z this afternoon. After this timeframe, a return to VFR conditions is expected for RME and SYR (moderate confidence). Further south, ELM and BGM are expected to see MVFR CIGs much of the day today, with higher confidence at BGM. No snow is expected, other than some brief flurries or a stray snow showers, as the bulk of the activity remains north of these two terminals. The next round of snow then moves in from the southwest, right around 00z this evening, quickly overspreading AVP and BGM. As the light snow moves in IFR restrictions are expected at these two terminals; mainly from 01-06z, and it could linger longer at AVP. Further northwest, ELM and ITH are expected to also see light snow arrive around 01z Sunday, with only enough confidence to shower lower end MVFR vsbys here. Will watch trends for these two taf sites, and if the steadier snow shifts further NW with this weak system, some IFR restrictions would also be possible. Expected light south winds early this morning, turning southwest and eventually west-southwest and increasing (8-18kts) through the day today. Winds turn west and decrease under 8 kts this evening. Outlook... Sunday through Monday...Occasional restrictions with a period of scattered snow showers. Highest coverage shifts to KITH,KELM and KBGM later Sunday and Sunday night. Tuesday... Mainly VFR. Wednesday...Potential frontal passage with rain showers and minor restrictions possible. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ES/JAB NEAR TERM...ES SHORT TERM...ES LONG TERM...ES AVIATION...MJM/MWG ####018004981#### FXUS63 KARX 130751 AFDARX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service La Crosse WI 151 AM CST Sat Dec 13 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Cold temperatures this weekend with highs in the single digits for today and Sunday. Wind chills of 15 to 35 below this morning through Sunday morning. - With the cold wind chills, a Cold Weather Advisory is in effect for southeast Minnesota and western Wisconsin this morning through Sunday morning. Another Cold Weather Advisory is in effect for all locations this evening through 10AM Sunday. - Near to above normal temperatures with drier conditions for early next week with high temperatures rebounding into the mid 30s. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 151 AM CST Sat Dec 13 2025 Today-Sunday: Bitter Cold Temperatures The upper level low that brought light snow to our area on Friday continues to churn over the northern Great Lakes. A 700mb frontogenesis band, associated with a shortwave trough on the back side of the parent longwave trough, will bring snow across roughly the same area that saw snow on Friday, this morning. South of a line from Mason City, IA to Guttenberg, IA will see accumulating snow. Most accumulations in this area will be up to a couple tenths. While the accumulating snow stays south of the local area for the most part, flurries will be possible for the rest of northeast Iowa and far southwestern Wisconsin. Areas along and north of I-90 will not see any snow, as the low level are forecasted to be quite dry. The upper level low is also bringing bitter cold temperatures with it as high temperatures for today and Sunday will mostly be in the single digits above zero with some locations getting into the single digits below zero. With northwest winds sustained at 10 to 15 mph and gusts of 20 to 25 mph, wind chill values for this morning are between -15 and -35 degrees. As a result a Cold Weather Advisory continues for southeast Minnesota and western Wisconsin this morning into Sunday morning. While wind chills improve this afternoon into the teens below zero, wind chills dip back down this evening into Cold Weather Advisory criteria. Additionally, areas that are not under a Cold Weather Advisory today, are in one for tonight into Sunday morning. Tonight into Sunday morning will have the coldest wind chills, -25 to -35 degrees, CWA wide. Monday-Wednesday: Warmer and Drier Ridging and an associated surface high pressure, moves into the area for early next week allowing for drier conditions. Southwest flow warms up temperatures into the mid 20s for Monday, mid 30s for Tuesday, and mid to upper 30s for Wednesday, with a low chance (20 to 40% based on most recent NBM) of hitting 40 degrees. This will be a nice break from the active pattern we have been in for the last couple of weeks. Wednesday night-Thursday: Rain/Snow? Models continue to be in good agreement on a low pressure system moving into the Upper Midwest Wednesday night. There remains quite a bit of uncertainty on the location of the low. as well as how much moisture is available ahead of the cold front that moves through. This would impact precipitation totals regardless if lower or higher amounts of moisture are available. Overall this would be the next chance at precipitation after today. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1100 PM CST Fri Dec 12 2025 CIGS: high, thin at times, upper level clouds scattering out this afternoon. RAP/NAM/HRRR hint that a few hours of 2 kft mvfr cigs could spread across the TAF sites after 00z this evening. Not clear cut signal though and could hold north/east. Will hold with a VFR forecast for now and monitor trends. In addition, a smattering of mvfr/low vfr are moving southeast across northern/central WI late this evening. Steering currents would continue to push them in that direction - and unless there is some unexpected westward building - will not impact the TAF sites. WX/vsby: upper level shortwave streaking southeast across IA today will bring snow to portions of that state, but favored track will hold any snow chances well south of the TAF sites. WINDS: northwest winds through the period, likely at/above 10 kts sustained. Some mostly afternoon gustiness. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...Cold Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 10 AM CST Sunday for WIZ054-055-061. Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM CST Sunday for WIZ017-029- 032>034-041>044-053. MN...Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM CST Sunday for MNZ079- 086>088-094>096. IA...Cold Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 10 AM CST Sunday for IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030. && $$ DISCUSSION...Cecava AVIATION...Rieck