####018002852#### FXUS63 KOAX 140447 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 1147 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Cooler weather is expected Sunday into early next week, with temperatures trending back up Tuesday into Wednesday. - Our next chance for rain appears to be on Wednesday, especially over far eastern Nebraska and western Iowa. - Thursday appears dry with our next weather system arriving sometime next weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1130 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026 After an active stretch of weather, a welcomed respite has arrived. A cold front has pushed through the region late this evening as an amplifying trough continues to dig into the central and eastern CONUS. Behind the cold front, cooler and drier air continues to filter in. By sunrise on Sunday, a jacket may be required as a cool north wind with temperatures in the 50s is expected. High pressure will settle into the region by Sunday afternoon, offering up temperatures in the 70s under mostly sunny skies. A similar forecast begins the work week as surface high pressure remains over the region. Temperatures start in the 50s once again, but afternoon highs increase into the lower 80s on Monday. Skies remain mostly sunny. The same will largely hold true for Tuesday. The one exception is a low chance of showers or an isolated thunderstorm as a weak cold front sweeps across the region early Tuesday morning. Our next chance of rain is not set to arrive until Wednesday. A more prominent trough begins to dig towards the central Plains by Wednesday afternoon. Ahead of this, the ridge will build slightly, pushing our temperatures into the lower 90s. As the trough moves overhead, another front is anticipated to push across the area. Along and ahead of the front has the best chance of thunderstorm activity, especially during the afternoon and evening hours across far eastern Nebraska and western Iowa. With the front pushing through, Thursday appears a little cooler and dry. The evolution of the pattern remains a bit uncertain by the end of the week into next weekend. That said, a weakening of the eastern CONUS trough, a building of the central CONUS ridge, and a digging western CONUS trough would lend to a warmer and potentially more active forecast pattern. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/... Issued at 619 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026 Expect scattered showers with a very small chance for a brief TS at LNK and OMA through around 02Z. After that time, VFR conditions with a northerly breeze, and a period of gusts to 20 kts after 16Z. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Chehak AVIATION...Barjenbruch ####018004510#### FXUS63 KPAH 140447 AFDPAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 1147 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Another round or two of showers and storms is likely today into tonight. Severe storms and flash flooding are both potential concerns with this system. All hazards are possible but damaging winds appear to be the greatest concern. There is roughly a 20-30% chance at rainfall totals exceeding 2" across the west half of the region. - Early next week is expected to be cooler and less humid. There is a very high chance (greater than 90%) at dew points remaining below 60 degrees on Monday and Tuesday! This appears short- lived though as higher humidity and warmer temperatures look to return later in the week. - An unsettled weather pattern may unfold from mid week into next weekend with near daily chances for showers and storms potentially. There is roughly a 40-60% chance at rainfall totals exceeding 3" over the next 10 days. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1147 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026 Updated Aviation discussion for the 06z TAF issuance. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 110 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026 Several MCVs noted on satellite are expected to trek through the Quad State this afternoon through tonight. The first one is passing through the area currently, helping to keep temperatures lower, but also touching off stronger storms over SEMO along as SBCAPE gradient. The next is expected to approach by early evening with the main frontal boundary approaching, then passing through the area around/after midnight tonight. CAMs are very much struggling with overall evolution as each MCV has an impact on the next. If that atmosphere is worked over, then it makes it more challenging for the next to thrive/survive as it passes in the wake of each MCV. Providing enough instability remains in place, severe storms will be possible along with very heavy rainfall. Wind shear values are progged to be around 25-35kts, coupled with increased instability will be plenty to give a continued severe weather threat. Again, this does depend on how worked over the atmosphere is with each MCV passing through the area. Dewpoints are in the 70s, which is providing plenty of moisture for the storms to work with across the Quad State. This will allow the storms to be efficient rainfall producers and may lead to at least localized flooding potential, especially where/if storms train across the same areas. Again, there's roughly a 20-30% chance of western portions of the county warning area seeing 3" inches of rain or greater. After the front passes later tonight, conditions improve and drier air arrives to start the week. That doesn't last long as more humid/unsettled weather will arrive for the last half of the work week. Another warm front, followed quickly by a cold front will move into the area Wednesday into Thursday. Shear values are progged to be around 30-40kts with instability values pushing around 1500-2000 J/kg. That combination will give the threat of seeing strong to severe storms for Wednesday into Thursday along with heavy rainfall potential. Thunderstorms do appear likely (50-70% chance), so will have to keep a close eye on those days. The SPC does have the area highlighted for a Slight Risk of severe storms Wednesday into Thursday. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1147 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026 After an initial lull in shower and thunderstorm activity, another round of decaying showers with embedded thunderstorms will move through the region around 10-16z ahead of a cold front (best chances will be in SEMO and WKY), followed by gradual drying in the afternoon hours. A few showers may develop along the leading edge of the front as well. VFR cigs will lower and will become MVFR with the arrival of more precipitation, followed by improvement in the afternoon. Light S to SW winds overnight around 4-8 kts will become W to NW and increasing to 8-12 kts with gusts of 15-20 kts behind the frontal passage Sunday afternoon. Sunday night, the NW winds will relax to around 5-10 kts. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$ UPDATE...DWS DISCUSSION...KC AVIATION...DWS ####018003944#### FXUS65 KVEF 140448 AFDVEF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Las Vegas NV 950 PM PDT Sat Jun 13 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Isolated showers and thunderstorms possible in the higher terrain of northwestern Arizona and the eastern Sierra. * Afternoon high temperatures will continue to range between 8 and 12 degrees above seasonal normals peaking Tuesday and Wednesday. && .DISCUSSION...Today through Saturday. Moisture advection into the Desert Southwest continues and isolated high based thunderstorm activity is underway northwestern Arizona. This morning's sounding in Las Vegas indicated most moisture above 600 mb along with around 2000 J/kg of DCAPE. Convective allowing models show persistent storm formation primarily across northwestern Arizona through the afternoon as surface heating and lift along outflow boundaries encourages storm formation. Orographic lift will favor storm formation along high terrain in the eastern Sierra and southern Nevada as well. Given the high based nature of these storms with plenty of dry air near the surface, little rainfall will reach the surface and gusty outflow winds can be expected. Dry lightning also cannot be ruled out. Thunderstorm activity spreads to the west tomorrow as a disturbance moves through California before conditions dry out by Monday. Temperatures rise next week as high pressure builds over the western United States. The hottest temperatures should arrive on Tuesday and Wednesday with highs 8 to 12 degrees above normal for mid-June. Major (Level 3 of 4) to Extreme (Level 4 of 4) Heat Risk is expected in valley locations around the Mojave Desert due to hot daytime temperatures and little relief from warm overnight temperatures. This level of heat will affect anyone without cooling or hydration, especially those spending time outdoors. Temperatures may start to decrease again as the ridge tracks east and heights aloft fall. && .AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 06Z Forecast Package... South to southwest winds around 10 knots or less are expected overnight. There is low confidence that winds may briefly shift to the northeast between 06-08Z this evening due to a old outflow boundary from earlier thunderstorms. The probability is too low to include in the TAF. South to southwest winds will increase after 17Z with occasional gusts between 20-25 knots through sunset. Isolated thunderstorms will again develop Sunday afternoon affecting mainly the Peach Springs and Mormon Mesa corridors, with a low probability of anything occurring within 50SM of the airport. Temperatures will exceed 100F from 18Z through 04Z. For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California...For the 06Z Forecast Package...Isolated storms will remain through 08Z across portions of northwest Arizona, but will continue to push southeast and gradually dissipate. Winds will gradually diminish this evening with winds over most TAF sites less than 10 knots. The exception to this will be across the western Mojave desert, including KDAG, where west winds will prevail, with gusts to 25-30 knots, before diminishing to around 12 knots overnight. Gusty south to southwest winds will again develop Sunday with speeds generally 10 to 20 knots with gusts to around 25 knots. Isolated thunderstorms over northwest Arizona and portions of south central Nevada will again be possible Sunday afternoon. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures. && $$ DISCUSSION...Meltzer AVIATION...Gorelow For more forecast information...see us on our webpage: https://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter