####018004526#### FXAK69 PAFG 072247 AFDAFG Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 147 PM AKST Sun Dec 7 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Cold and mainly dry conditions will continue across most areas for the next several days. The exception will be along the North Slope where occasional light snow showers will occur. It appears that a weak front will try and cross the region later in the week which could also allow for some light snow showers. && .KEY WEATHER MESSAGES... Central and Eastern Interior... - Cold and windy conditions continue. Blowing snow will persist along the Dalton/Steese Highway Summits as well as the Richardson and Parks highway in the southern slopes of the AK Range. - Wind diminishes tonight with nearly calm winds by Monday afternoon. - Ambient temperatures will drop once again tonight and tomorrow under clear and calm conditions. - Temperatures in the 30s and 40s below zero (with no cloud cover) persist through much of the week. Some colder spots in the Yukon Flats and Eastern Interior may reach 55F below zero. West Coast and Western Interior... - Breezy conditions persist into Monday, but gradually weaken through the day with gusts around 10 to 20 mph by the afternoon. - Cold and calmer weather persists thereafter with temperatures in the single digits above/below zero along the coast, and teens to about 30F below zero in the Interior through much of the week. North Slope and Brooks Range.. - Cold and breezy conditions continue. - A front brings clouds and areas of snow to the Slope and Brooks Range on Monday and Tuesday. Light snow will persist into Wednesday. - Accumulations look to be around 1 inch or less along the coast and up to 2 inches in Atigun and Anaktuvuk Passes. && .FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION... Persistent upper ridging continues across the Bering region with troughing across eastern most Alaska. As a result, much of the area can expect the current cold spell to continue for the foreseeable future. At the surface a strong 1040 high over the eastern Brooks Range and a 970 low in the northern Gulf will maintain enough of gradient to keep conditions breezy into this evening. As the surface high shifts further south and east we can expect the winds to calm down by Monday and should remain on the lighter side for several days. The exception will be along the North Slope where a passing front will keep things breezy and even produce occasional snow showers Monday into Tuesday. Overnight temps will likely run some 15 to 20 degrees below normal as lighter winds and clear skies allow for maximum cooling through the middle part of the week. Should a few clouds manage to drift overhead, these temps will moderate a bit, but should stay well below normal as the Arctic surface high remains nearly stationary over the eastern Interior. && .EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7... The extended period begins with a strong ridging pattern over the Bering Sea and weak troughing over the Eastern portion of the state. This ridge acts as a shield for the Interior deflecting lows attempting to move into the region to the south or north. Model agreement is low on exactly how each weaker low pressure system moves as it interacts with the higher pressure ridge. But the interaction of this ridge and the trough over Eastern Alaska likely keeps cold northwest flow aloft over the eastern half of the state. There is a chance that a strong enough low could try and dampen the ridge slightly and enter Northern Alaska by the end of the week. This would bring light snow, clouds and slightly modified temperatures, but confidence is low in this outcome. Otherwise we anticipate mostly cold and dry conditions through the end of the week. Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AK...Blizzard Warning for AKZ832-834. PK...Gale Warning for PKZ801-802. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ803-853. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ804-805-852. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ811-857. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ816. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ817. Gale Warning for PKZ850. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ851. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ851. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ858. && $$ Laney ####018008772#### FXUS66 KMTR 072248 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 248 PM PST Sun Dec 7 2025 ...New MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1218 PM PST Sun Dec 7 2025 - Benign conditions through the next seven days with no precipitation expected and a gradual warming trend through the later part of the week - Impacts from Tule Fog continue in the North Bay and interior East Bay valleys, with potential for expansion across the rest of the Bay Area overnight - Next chance for rain lies slightly beyond the 7-day outlook && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 1218 PM PST Sun Dec 7 2025 (This evening through Monday) Today is looking to be very similar to yesterday, right down to the satellite imagery showing outgrowth from the Tule Fog across the Bay Area, slowly dissipating south of the Golden Gate and west of the Berkeley-San Leandro Hills and the eastern Santa Clara Mountains, and lingering across the North Bay and interior East Bay valleys. Indeed, if you compared the current satellite image and the one from yesterday, you could only them apart by the lack of coastal stratus today. As a point of curiosity, while there are no radiosonde observations over the Central Valley, aircraft soundings from the region suggest that the saturated lower atmosphere -- the "Tule fog" layer, if you will -- extends 1500-2000 feet above the ground. The Central Coast remains mainly clear. The remarkably similar evolution of the stratus from yesterday through today has lowered confidence in the clearing of stratus from the Santa Rosa Plain and the rest of the North Bay valleys. I've tamped down the high temperatures today even further in those regions, into the upper 40s to the lower 50s, and even then the expected highs are still a little warmer than the observed highs yesterday. Across the rest of the region, temperatures range from the middle 50s to lower 60s across the Bayshore, the Bay Area Pacific Coast and the Santa Clara Valley, while the sun-blessed Central Coast sees highs in the lower to middle 60s in the Monterey Bay region and the Hollister area, and the upper 60s to lower 70s inland. Tomorrow, the ridge over the West Coast will strengthen and continue a general warming trend across the region. For the Central Coast, the temperature forecast should be similar to today's. The uncertainty increases across the Bay Area and especially in the North and East Bays, where the impacts of the building ridge on the Tule Fog remain uncertain. In general, a building ridge will tend to compress the inversion layer, and limit the extent that the Tule Fog can extend across the region. (We see this happen during our marine layer season as well, when building ridges compress the marine layer and prevent it from coming inland.) If the inversion layer does compress enough, the Tule Fog could find itself hitting a proverbial wall before it reaches the Bay Area. On the flip side, for those areas still impacted by the Tule Fog, ceilings and visibilities will tend to drop. This makes the temperature forecasts highly uncertain. For now, tamped down the temperatures slightly so that the North and East Bay valleys see highs in the middle 50s to lower 60s, while the rest of the Bay Area valleys see highs in the lower to middle 60s, but this might be quite optimistic indeed. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 1218 PM PST Sun Dec 7 2025 (Monday night through next Saturday) Ridiculously resilient ridging will dominate the weather pattern through the rest of the week with the ridge crawling through the Western United States, such that over the next 6 days the ridge axis moves from just off the coast of the Pacific Northwest to the Oregon- Idaho border area. Over the Central Coast the impacts are most certain with a gradual warming trend in the forecast. The warmest days are expected Wednesday through Saturday with highs reaching the upper 60s to the middle 70s across the inland valleys. The Bay Area in general and the North and East Bay valleys in particular remain tied to the evolution of the Tule Fog. Impacts are expected to persist into the early part of the work week before diminishing with the continuing ridging across the region. The pattern change for the middle of the month is beginning to come into the very end of the 7 day outlook. The early indications are pointing more towards a zonal flow pattern for the Western United States and any rain storms that develop generally being deflected into the Pacific Northwest. Beyond the 7-day outlook, the ensemble model clusters suggest that a return to a wetter pattern is possible around 9-10 days out, and the CPC's 8-14 day outlook shows a slight lean towards rainfall totals above seasonal averages for the third week of December. I have heard that before this month... && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 955 AM PST Sun Dec 7 2025 Tough forecast given the Tule fog and associated stratus have not been handled well by the models. In fact, most of them for today are fairly optimistic, which seems unlikely for much of our service Bay Area terminals. The marine layer looks to be 1000-1500ft, with the Valley being socked in as of this discussion. Expect cloudy conditions to prevail for most sites, with CIGS varying from LIFR to IFR. The exception might be KOAK, KSFO, and KSJC where onshore flow might be able to mix things out. Where skies are clear, KHAF, elevations above 1500ft, and the majority of the Central Coast, VFR conditions will prevail. Vicinity of SFO...Low to medium confidence in the forecast here as most models have indicated some clearing by now and what we have seen so far is a slight lift in CIGs. Satellite imagery shows some clearing over the San Francisco Bay, but outside of that there doesn't appear to be much movement. The most pessimistic of forecasts looks to be the MOS guidance from the EC, which has loosely been incorporated in the TAF for clearing around 21Z. After that, opted to keep the previous forecaster's TAFs in shape if the onshore flow pans out. Should it not, and we stay socked in. The question if that happens will be how long do we stay with IFR cigs? Low to medium confidence on this forecast. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...Light and variable offshore winds become onshore by this afternoon, before circling back to offshore or light variable tonight. No VIS or CIG concerns, thus VFR prevail. && .MARINE... (Today through Friday) Issued at 900 AM PST Sun Dec 7 2025 Moderate to fresh north to northwest winds hold for much of the waters today with strong gusts focused on the southern waters. Moderate seas with wave heights 6 to 8 feet across the outer waters today, subsiding to around 4 to 6 feet for Monday. Winds increase on Tuesday, with strong to near gale force gusts possible for much of the waters. A new, long period northwesterly swell is anticipated by Wednesday of next week. && .MARINE... (Tonight through next Friday) Issued at 248 PM PST Sun Dec 7 2025 Moderate to fresh north to northwest winds hold for much of the waters through tonight with strong gusts focused on the southern waters. Moderate seas with wave heights 6 to 8 feet across the outer waters will subside to around 4 to 6 feet for Monday. Winds increase on Tuesday, with strong to near gale force gusts possible for much of the waters. A new, long period northwesterly swell is anticipated by Wednesday of next week. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 PM PST this afternoon for CAZ006- 506-508-529-530. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Monday to 3 AM PST Tuesday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PST this evening for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PST Tuesday for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PST this evening for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...DialH LONG TERM....DialH AVIATION...KR MARINE...KR Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea