####018006274#### FXUS65 KCYS 101735 AFDCYS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cheyenne WY 1135 AM MDT Fri May 10 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Daily isolated to scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms are possible into next week. Severe weather is not expected this time. - Temperatures will remain warm through Tuesday before a cold storm system moves in on Wednesday bringing cooler temperatures. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 337 AM MDT Fri May 10 2024 Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible Friday afternoon across southeast Wyoming and western Nebraska. As conditions start drying out today, areas most favored for showers and thunderstorms are the mountains and higher terrain that will have the lift needed to support development. HiRes guidance is not very robust in terms of dynamic support with cool temperatures, limited instability (50-100 J/kg of CAPE), dewpoints in the low 30s, and shear values 5 to 15 knots. Due to the main thunderstorm ingredients being limited, confidence is low in any widespread shower/thunderstorm development. Saturday, as a low in the Four Corners Region shifts eastward, some moisture wraps around back north into areas along and south of the Interstate-80 corridor, increasing precipitation chances in the afternoon. While the shear is still very weak in the 5 to 10 knot range, with the moisture increase and instability being more widespread and stronger near 200-800 J/kg across the High Plains, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are possible. They will likely not be very strong thunderstorms, but the chance of them being more widespread is higher. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 337 AM MDT Fri May 10 2024 The long term forecast continues to show chances for isolated afternoon thunderstorms beginning by the weekend, with better chances for more scattered showers and thunderstorms next week. Temperatures are also expected to increase beginning this weekend into next week with temperatures likely to remain in the upper 60s to low 70s Monday and Tuesday. The biggest change noted is for a potent cold core system to move into the region on Wednesday and bring colder temperatures and more widespread precipitation chances and the possibility for high elevation snow showers. Precipitation chances on Saturday and Sunday will be driven by a slow moving and large upper level low moving across the Four Corners region. Models have been consistent over the past 24 hours in advertising a setup where this upper level low is south of a ridge building across the northern Pacific northwest with another upper level low sitting in near northern Michigan. This overall setup of upper level low and high pressure systems looks like a messy col setup across the Front Range states. The wind fields show the col pattern better as light easterly winds in close proximity of light westerly winds suggest that some type of stationary or quasi- stationary front will be located across SE Wyoming and the Nebraska Panhandle. This boundary will be the focal point for potential convective initiation Friday and again on Saturday. These storms that do develop will be in a weakly shear and low CAPE/instability environment so not expecting much in the way of deep convection, but towers that go up along the boundary or are orographically supported could be deep enough to foster the development of some small hail. This overall pattern remains in place well into Saturday evening before the closed upper low across the Four Corners begins to weaken and open into an open wave trough as it crossed through southern Colorado. Remaining stationary boundary should still be draped somewhere across the Front Range and we will also have lingering outflow boundaries in play on Saturday IF we can get a few deeper convective cores going on Friday. This system begins to speed up on Sunday but the threat for some afternoon diurnal convection will again be possible. Monday may be quiet day across the region as a weak upper level ridge axis moves but this too will quickly move east of the region throughout the day on Monday. We will see the benefits of some warmer 700mb temperatures which will allow for temperatures to jump into the 70s across much of SE Wyoming and the Nebraska Panhandle. Heading into Tuesday models have shifted a bit on the overall pattern across the region. Models are now showing a deeper trough developing across western Montanta which will have a downstream transition to to a SW flow across much of Wyoming, this deeper trough also means the ridge will hold in place longer before getting ejected to the east. The evolution of this trough becomes quite messy with models initially pushing this feature in as a positively tilted trough before pinching off a weak closed low over central Utah with strong shortwave pushing out of eastern Montanta on Wednesday. This secondary shortwave looks to push a cold front north to south across the region bringing with it colder temperatures and more widespread precipitation chances with the potential for some high elevation mountain snow showers. While the exact evolution of the main 500mb height needs to be watched, overall confidence remains that we will stay unsettled for much of next week. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1132 AM MDT Fri May 10 2024 Improving aviation conditions today across the area, though CIGs in the 3k to 5kft range will persist through the afternoon for Wyoming terminals. Slow moving shower activity has already begun to develop, and this will expand and drift southward. Some of this activity may produce thunder, but confidence in timing is too low to add to the TAF. Expect AMDs this afternoon if and when thunderstorms develop. Skies will trend clear overnight. && .CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WY...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...LEG LONG TERM...AW AVIATION...MN ####018006281#### FXUS63 KFGF 101736 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 1236 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered thunderstorms are forecast for portions of northwest and west-central Minnesota this afternoon. A few storms may produce wind gusts to 50 mph and small hail. Best chance (50%) for strong storms resides east of US Highway 59. - Gusty northwest winds will develop today. There is a 40% chance sustained winds exceed 30 mph and/or gust to 45 mph to eastern North Dakota and the Red River Valley. These winds along with dry conditions will bring near critical fire weather conditions to these areas. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1236 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Starting to get some showers developing over northwestern MN, although satellite shows only a tiny bit of glaciation so no lightning yet but could see some in the next few hours. Mixed layer CAPE is around 250 J/kg and surface based just a bit higher, so instability is pretty minor and effective shear is around 20 kts. Not expecting much other than some brief downpours and gusty winds to 40 mph, but some hail up to peas is not completely out of the question. Cloud cover and showers have kept RH values up a bit higher than what we had going so far on the MN side for fire weather concerns, so even though some spots have been approaching 25 mph in the Red River Valley, the humidity has been high enough to keep the near critical SPS and not upgrade to Red Flag for now. UPDATE Issued at 958 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Pulled the low POPs out of the Red River Valley this morning as the shower activity has stayed up around Lake of the Woods and the Red Lakes, and upstream showers in Canada seem like they will take a similar path. Amounts still look light and low impact. Will continue to keep an eye on winds and RH values in the Red River Valley for fire weather concerns. UPDATE Issued at 650 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024 A cold front is moving through the area bringing gusts as high as 40 mph in portions of the northern Red River Valley and northwest Minnesota. This is likely tied to an initial bubble of strong CAA. However, as daytime mixing commences this will spread. In coordination with neighboring offices and MIFC, issued an Special Weather Statement on near critical fire weather conditions within the Red River Valley. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 430 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Synopsis.. Water vapor imagery projects a progressive and potent shortwave trough moving southeast within MB and western ON. This will move into MN today. Cold air aloft embedded within this trough will drive thunderstorm chances today by way of steep lapse rates/weak instability, meager but sufficient moisture, and strong synoptic lift. Some storms may be strong bringing gusty winds and small hail. This trough will also bring gusty winds and dry air over the Dakotas. Behind the quickly departing trough today will be shortwave ridging tonight into Saturday ahead of the next progressive shortwave trough expected to brush our area as it moves through MB into ON. This next trough's passage will advect warmer air into the region, along with bringing an additional chance for showers and storms to the area, currently favoring northeast ND into MN late Saturday. Additional progressive shortwave troughs are forecast to move through the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest through next week, although predictability in their timing and trajectories remains rather low. Still, additional chances of showers and storms exist through next week. Strong storms in Minnesota today... The path of today's trough will place our area in a northerly flow regime, with increasing winds with height. As daytime heating commences, convection will start to bubble late morning through the afternoon. This along with a very deeply mixed PBL underneath thunderstorms will contribute to convectively driven wind gusts as high as 50 mph in strongest storms. With such cold temperatures aloft keeping much of the cloud layer sub- freezing as well as generally favorable kinematics, storms will also hold the potential for small hail. Expected hail sizes are generally under the size of quarters, although a few instances of quarter sized hail cannot be ruled out. Overall chance for storms is around 50% mainly east of US Highway 59, which also holds relatively best chances for these stronger storms. Gusty winds today.. Deep mixing today (likely at or above 700 mb) will allow increased winds aloft to mix toward the surface. Overall winds within the deeply mixed PBL today are not overly strong, generally in the 20-30 kt range, although some guidance does mix into a layer where 30-40 kt winds exist. Northwesterly direction of winds will also favor some locally increased winds within the Red River Valley. Available CAMs favor the southern Valley to see best potential in seeing highest winds, with around a 40% chance of meeting wind advisory criteria. Dry air mass moving into the Dakotas along with gusty winds also introduces the potential for fire weather conditions. However, recent rainfall and green up of fine fuels/grasses should mitigate the potential for rapid spread of fires. Still, we are opting to message near critical fire weather conditions based on weather conditions alone. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1236 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Cumulus and showers developing mainly over northwestern MN, but all sites VFR and will remain so as convective activity dissipates after sunset. Winds will be the primary aviation concern with many airports gusting above 30 kts from the northwest this afternoon. Should see winds slowly taper off this evening, eventually becoming light and variable overnight. By the end of the period there will be a shift to the southwest at less than 10 kts. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...CJ/JR DISCUSSION...CJ AVIATION...CJ ####018003917#### FXUS63 KGID 101736 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 1236 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - A few sprinkles possible this afternoon, but no accumulation expected. - A return to more active weather returns Saturday evening as an upper level low approaches the area from the west. This could result in increased cloud cover as well as unsettled weather (40-80% chance) late Saturday night through Monday morning. Severe weather is not anticipated. - Additional chances for showers and thunderstorms (40-60% chance) return with a cold front/upper level disturbance Tuesday night into Wednesday. Again, severe weather is not anticipated. - For the most part temperatures will remain seasonable through the period with high temperatures climbing into the 70s along with low temperatures mostly in the 40s and lower 50s. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 304 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024 A few high clouds can be seen on satellite this morning streaming across the local area from the west as the next area of low pressure spins across central Nevada. For today, expect another pleasant day across the region with slightly lighter winds as the pressure gradient relaxes across the local area. As the same time, expect a few cumulus to develop across the area again this afternoon - with some sprinkles (as seen in NAMnest and to a lesser extend in the HRRR) likely in spots later in the day as daytime heating helps in the development of some mainly fair weather CU. Looking at soundings, this CU should be pretty shallow given the inversion aloft, and think no more than a few sprinkles (with no accumulation) appears likely at this time. As the pressure gradient weakens further and winds turn westerly on Saturday, expect a slightly warmer and less breezy day across the area, with high temperatures likely approaching the upper 70s to near 80 in spots. The focus will then shift to the aforementioned upper level low to our west that is expect to cross just south of the local area on Sunday. This should mark the return of a better chance for more widespread shower and thunderstorm activity spreading across the region as early as late Saturday night, with off and on small chances for thunderstorms then continuing into Monday morning. While precipitation will not be continuous and thunderstorms should not be severe late this weekend, precipitation should be a bit more widepsread with most locations seeing some accumulation over this period (maybe a quarter of an inch or so), with the higher amounts expected across north central Kansas - which will be closer to the upper level low/forcing. While Tuesday daytime will likely be dry, a cold front coupled with an upper level wave could bring additional chances for precip beginning late Tuesday night and continuing through Wednesday. Again, severe weather chances appear limited given the atmospheric profile, but most areas should see some light accumulating precip over this period. Overall, temperatures should remain fairly pleasant through the period, with afternoon high temperatures mostly fluctuating in the 70s and lows in the 40s and lower 50s. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1231 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024 SCT-BKN cumulus will continue through this afternoon. A few sprinkles remain possible, but this will favor areas to the south of GRI/EAR. Skies clear out this evening. Northwest winds gusting over 20kts at times continue this afternoon before decreasing in the evening and turning more westerly into Saturday morning. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Rossi AVIATION...Mangels ####018005214#### FXUS63 KAPX 101731 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 131 PM EDT Fri May 10 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Shower likely tonight and Saturday. - Patchy frost possible Saturday morning. - Warming trend; Showers with possible embedded thunderstorms Sunday into early next week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1048 AM EDT Fri May 10 2024 No big changes necessary to the forecast. Still can't rule out a few stray afternoon lake breeze convergent initiated showers. Most spots should remain rain free. Otherwise, partly to mostly sunny skies expected with seasonably warm temperatures with highs in the low and mid 60s. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 242 AM EDT Fri May 10 2024 Synopsis/Pattern: High pressure extends ne-ward into the upper MS Valley and western Lk Superior. Low pressure over far northern Ontario extends a cold front toward Winnipeg and eastern ND. Aloft, a digging shortwave will deepen and close off as it heads for the northern lakes. This will result in a surface wave deepening along the cold front, with the resulting low directly over our heads at daybreak Saturday. Forecast: Lights winds this morning will give way to a weak west synoptic wind this afternoon. Flow will be weak enough for lake breeze development. Localized convergence will be highest somewhat inland in ne lower MI, and where lake breezes collide in eastern upper. Instability looks meager, maybe 100-200j/kg, but we've got enough localized forcing to take advantage of minimal Cape. Will maintain a slight chance for a shower this afternoon in parts of eastern upper and ne lower MI. Otherwise a partly to mostly sunny day, though with clouds increasing late. Max temps in the 60s. Tonight, isentropic ascent increases in a relatively narrow ribbon, ahead of a deepening surface low and amplifying 500mb wave. Moisture availability is somewhat limited, with surface ridging dominating the se states and central plains. But forcing will be enough to generate showers in a portion of the area. In the evening and early overnight, will mention a chance of showers w of I-75 in both peninsulas. Showers will progress se- ward with time; likely pops forecast overnight in the sw third of the forecast area (including MBL/TVC/Gladwin. Pops decrease to a slight chance or less north of the big bridge. Looks to be on the cloudy side across the area. Min temps within a few degrees of 40f. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 242 AM EDT Fri May 10 2024 PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: An upper-level low tracks into Northern Michigan spreading rain showers/shallow convection across the CWA Friday night into Saturday. Moisture advection and more energy tracking overhead Sunday into next week will result in the chance for rain showers once again for the next several days. However, as previously stated, a brief break in activity could be possible mid next week (Tuesday/ Wednesday) as energy looks to be situated to the north and south of the region while in a more zonal flow. Unsettled weather returns for later in the week as another system impacts the CWA bringing back chances for rain showers. PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: - Rain showers/ shallow convection Saturday; patchy frost possible Saturday morning: Winds shift northerly Friday into Saturday as a low pressure tracks across Northern Michigan. As such, a cold airmass is drawn southward into the region, leading to the possibility of enough instability to create a rumble of thunder or two, especially in the afternoon. With the cooler airmass overhead, winds expected to become light, clouds clearing, and temperatures expected to drop into the 30s, the possibility arises that patchy frost could be a concern for Saturday morning. This potential is mainly for interior/higher terrain and the typical valley locations. - Warming trend; Showers with possible embedded thunderstorms Sunday into early next week: A short-lived ridge builds in for Saturday evening into Sunday promoting clearing for Saturday night. As winds shift more southerly for Sunday, a warming trend in temperatures is expected as we head into next week. With these southerly winds, a flux of moisture will be brought to the region along with increasing clouds and more chances for rain showers (with possible embedded thunderstorms) next week. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 127 PM EDT Fri May 10 2024 Low pressure will move across the region later tonight into Saturday likely bringing rain showers to the region. Vsbys are expected to remain vfr. Cigs will gradually lower to mvfr tonight, with some spots possibly falling to ifr. Winds are expected to be variable through early tonight then become northerly and perhaps gusty toward the end of the taf period. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ UPDATE... SHORT TERM...JZ LONG TERM...NSC AVIATION...AJS ####018005540#### FXUS65 KTFX 101739 AFDTFX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 1155 AM MDT Fri May 10 2024 Aviation Section Updated .SYNOPSIS... Temperatures will warm to near normal today, and well above normal over the weekend and into early next week. These above normal temperatures will lead to snowmelt from the most recent storm, which will lead to rising water levels on creeks and streams over the coming days. && .UPDATE... With upper level ridging building in, benign conditions are expected today, with temperatures rising to near to slightly above average this afternoon. No update to the forecast was necessary this morning. -AM && .AVIATION... 1155 AM MDT Fri May 10 2024 (10/18Z TAF Period) VFR conditions will prevail over the CWA through period. Expect passing high clouds to move from north to south through the CWA through the period. Otherwise, no other aviation impacts are expected at this time. Brusda Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation weather and hazard information. && .HYDROLOGY... A Flood Warning remains in effect for Clear Creek in North Central Montana through Saturday morning, with water levels expected to slowly fall from minor flood stage to action stage over this timeframe. Additionally, a Flood Watch remains in effect for the nearby Bears Paw Mountains from this afternoon through the weekend as warming temperatures and subsequent snowmelt runoff, and remaining runoff from rainwater, could push creeks and streams out of their banks. Further south across the Island Ranges of Central Montana (i.e. Highwood, Moccasin, Judith, Little Belt, and Snowy), increased snowmelt and subsequent runoff into creeks and streams is expected from Saturday through Monday as overnight temperatures and dewpoint temperatures remain above freezing. This runoff could result in waterways nearing bankful by Saturday night/Sunday morning. Hence, a Flood Watch has been issued for the Little Belts eastward toward the Lewistown area. - Moldan/AM && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 520 AM MDT Fri May 10 2024/ Today through Sunday...A warm and relatively dry pattern is expected as upper level ridging over the Pacific Northwest and Western Canada is slowly suppressed through the period. Near normal high temperatures today will climb well above normal over the weekend, with temperatures peaking in the 70s on both Saturday and Sunday despite falling heights aloft. A fast moving disturbance within northwesterly flow aloft Saturday evening/night will bring a return chance for shower and even a few thunderstorms to the plains of Central and North Central Montana, with these shower and thunderstorm chances lingering into the day on Sunday across predominately eastern portions of Central and North Central Montana. Monday through Tuesday...Ensemble clusters are in relatively good agreement with a shortwave within initially zonal flow, and an associated Pacific front, digging east/southwest and over/across the Northern Rockies during the period. High temperatures ahead of the shortwave and Pacific front on Monday will once again warm well above normal and into the 70s, but fall back below normal and into the 60s on Tuesday. Surface winds will be on the increase through the morning hours on Monday ahead of the aforementioned Pacific front, becoming breezy and gusty during the afternoon and evening hours on Monday. While the latest NBM probabilistic data does not support high winds materializing over this timeframe; most lower elevations across Southwest through North Central Montana have between a 20-50% chance of seeing wind gusts in excess of 35kts. Light precipitation is also expected to accompany and follow the passage of the Pacific front Monday afternoon/night, lingering into the day on Tuesday as the upper level disturbance digs into the Central Rockies. While widespread, heavy precipitation is not expected over this timeframe, NBM probabilistic data does support between a 40-70% chance for QPF amounts to reach or exceed 0.10" across most of Southwest through North Central Montana. Wednesday through next Friday...ensemble clusters diverge drastically throughout the period, with the main difference between the clusters being the timing of shortwave ridging and troughing. The multi-model ensemble favors a more zonal pattern, with temperatures near normal and daily chances for showers. - Moldan && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 68 42 76 43 / 0 0 10 10 CTB 74 45 77 45 / 0 0 10 10 HLN 71 41 78 47 / 0 0 0 0 BZN 64 33 73 40 / 10 0 0 0 WYS 62 27 66 30 / 10 10 10 0 DLN 66 36 74 40 / 10 0 0 0 HVR 72 46 77 48 / 0 0 10 30 LWT 62 38 70 41 / 0 0 10 10 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch from noon MDT today through Sunday morning for Bears Paw Mountains and Southern Blaine. Flood Watch from Saturday afternoon through Monday morning for Cascade County below 5000ft-Fergus County below 4500ft-Judith Basin County and Judith Gap-Little Belt and Highwood Mountains- Meagher County Valleys-Snowy and Judith Mountains-Western and Central Chouteau County. && $$ http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls ####018004310#### FXUS64 KOUN 101739 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 1239 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 306 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024 A beautiful day is in store for today with mostly sunny skies, high temperatures mainly in the 70's and light to moderate north/northeast winds. The back end of a weak cold front moves through and low-level CAA behind this boundary will push through the Red River area by this afternoon. The only sensible impacts with this FROPA will be the slightly cooler temperatures compared to yesterday (only by a few degrees). With the closed upper low remaining over the Great Basin, short- wave ridging overhead flattens towards this evening and a surface high will move over our area tonight. This will shift winds to the south. Clouds will increase late tonight and towards Saturday morning across southwest Oklahoma and western north Texas. Thompson && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 306 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024 The closed upper low will slowly progress towards the central Rockies on Saturday as the surface high continues shifting southeastward. With the approach of this upper low and subsequent low-level WAA, an area of showers and storms are expected to develop along the Texas panhandle and into west Texas on Saturday. Rain could begin developing into our southwest Oklahoma and western north Texas counties as early as Saturday morning, though better chances exist in the afternoon for these areas. With little instability available, mostly rain is anticipated with a slight chance of general thunderstorms. On Sunday, the upper trough begins to slowly eject over southwest Kansas, and we should see dewpoint temperatures begin to increase slightly with the increased low-level mass response. Rain is likely across southwest Oklahoma and western north Texas on Sunday morning with high chances spreading into northwest Oklahoma on Sunday afternoon. Storm chances have increased slightly for Sunday afternoon across parts of western Oklahoma and western north Texas and a Marginal Risk of severe storms has been introduced by the SPC. There is some signal for this potential, as seen in the 00Z GFS forecast soundings and in the CSU machine learning probabilistic guidance. However, confidence is low at this time given the lack agreement among other models and of run-to-run uncertainty from the GFS. Nevertheless, forecast soundings depict the potential for large hail if storms can develop ahead of a diffuse dryline. Shower and storms become likely across central Oklahoma on Sunday night as the upper trough slowly moves across Kansas and Oklahoma, and chances linger into Monday (best chances east of I-35) as the system occludes and slowly departs from our region. A few strong storms cannot be ruled out. Tuesday looks dry as a ridge passes overhead, and attention then turns to another trough that reaches the western CONUS. This trough appears to be characterized by a split-flow regime, with northern- and southern-stream vorticity lobes present. Strong to severe thunderstorms appear possible on Wednesday with the approach of a lead southern- stream wave and again on Thursday ahead of a cold front. Thompson && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1239 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Unrestricted ceilings and visibilities will continue. A few fair weather cumulus clouds at about 4000 ft AGL will persist through the afternoon hours across central/southeast Oklahoma. Otherwise, north to northeast winds will become light and variable this evening. Mahale && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 77 56 79 58 / 0 0 0 20 Hobart OK 79 56 78 56 / 0 10 20 40 Wichita Falls TX 78 57 76 58 / 0 10 20 30 Gage OK 78 52 79 53 / 10 10 10 50 Ponca City OK 77 53 81 58 / 0 0 0 10 Durant OK 79 56 80 60 / 0 0 10 20 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...01 LONG TERM....01 AVIATION...10 ####018011296#### FXUS65 KABQ 101739 AAA AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 1139 AM MDT Fri May 10 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 212 AM MDT Fri May 10 2024 Strong winds in ABQ taper off some this morning with one more strong surge forecast this evening and tonight. Despite the cool down, the increased moisture behind this front will yield increased showers and a few thunderstorms over north-central, central and eastern NM today and Saturday. A few storms will be strong enough to produce small hail and gusty winds and brief moderate to heavy rainfall. Drier conditions push west to east across the state Sunday with showers and a few storms lasting longest over northern and northeastern NM Sunday evening. A warming trend returns to start next week with daily rounds of scattered afternoon showers and storms Monday and Tuesday. Guidance is good that continued chances for showers and storms will continue into the Wednesday and Thursday timeframe, at least across northern and eastern NM. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 212 AM MDT Fri May 10 2024 The latest water vapor imagery shows a well-defined upper level low drifting south across central NV with fast west-southwest flow aloft over AZ and NM. At the surface, low level east-northeast winds have set up across NM between a 1009mb low near Phoenix and a 1026mb high near Colorado Springs. The pressure gradient across the central mt chain has allowed gap winds to continue this morning but speeds are still below High Wind Warning levels. The latest MOS guidance, NBM 50th percentile, and most HREF members keep gusts below 58 mph, so this hazard will likely be cancelled before sunrise. Meanwhile, any remnant showers and storms over northern NM early this morning will decrease after sunrise with very slow improvement to stratus decks across northeast NM. Locations around the Sangre de Cristo Mts will stay socked in all day with temps around 15F below normal. The upper low over NV will then drift southeast into northern AZ this afternoon and near the Four Corners region tonight. Moisture advection with strengthening low level southeast flow over eastern NM will interact with large scale ascent increasing over NM thru tonight. Showers and storms will redevelop along and east of the central mt chain by late this afternoon then move northeast into nearby highlands and plains of eastern NM thru this evening. Model instability is not impressive and most activity will move into a more elevated unstable layer across the plains tonight. Widespread areas of rain with embedded storms are expected thru Saturday across eastern NM as the upper level low moves slowly east along the NM/CO border. QPF amounts have trended up considerably from WPC and this trend is also noted in hi-res CAMs. Widespread rainfall amounts of 0.25" to 0.75" are forecast for northern and eastern NM with an area greater than 1.25" over northeast NM. Temps will be cold enough for to support a few more inches of snow above 9,500 feet. Gap winds are also likely to develop in the RGV tonight with gusts near 55 mph on the east side of the ABQ metro. Temps on Saturday will be around 20F below normal across eastern NM. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 212 AM MDT Fri May 10 2024 Saturday night begins the long term period with the 566dm H5 low tracking eastward over CO with its associated Pacific front shunting low-level moisture across eastern NM back toward TX. Numerical model guidance is in fairly good agreement evening and overnight thunderstorm development will focus along the northern reaches of southerly return flow in east-central NM just north of I- 40 over San Miguel County. Brief downpours, cloud-to-ground lightning, gusty winds and small hail will accompany these storm cells. Southwesterly flow aloft will track these storms northeast over the northeastern plains including Harding and Union Counties Saturday night. Drier westerly air fills in behind the Pacific front through the forecast area Sunday as the center of the H5 low tracks over southeastern CO. Enough moisture will be present in association with a vortmax wrapping around the backside of the low over northeastern NM. Showers and a few thunderstorms are likely to develop over northeastern NM Sunday afternoon tracking southeast Sunday evening. Gusty winds, cloud-to-ground lightning and small hail will be possible in these storms. Monday and Tuesday see a warming trend ensue most areas as a weak ridge begins to move over from the west. There will be enough mid- level moisture to allow for high-based showers and a few thunderstorms over north-central NM. Some of these cells could produce strong erratic gusty winds at the surface each afternoon. Forecast confidence tanks Wednesday and beyond due to the wide variety of scenarios regarding the interaction of an upper low over the southwest U.S. and an upper trough diving down the western CONUS. Did not deviate much from the NBM during this time as it matches well with a cluster of ensemble solutions showing the two lows phasing together with an amplified ridging pattern building in behind them. This would yield an influx of cooler air and higher moisture pushing into eastern NM behind a backdoor cold front. Increased shower and thunderstorm activity would return to eastern and northern NM as a result Wednesday and Thursday in this scenario. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1131 AM MDT Fri May 10 2024 Unsettled weather to continue throughout the TAF period. Current MVFR cigs across portions of ern NM will improve for a short time this aftn before deteriorating once again tonight. Aftn shwrs and storms will favor the nrn mts, spreading newd into the highlands aft 10/20Z. Widespread MVFR/IFR cigs/vsbys will return tonight increasing in coverage across portions of the Rio Grande Valley and ewd due to shwrs. Ely canyon winds are also expected in and around KABQ aft 11/00Z, with gusts to 40 kt likely. Little improvement to low cigs/vsbys across the central mts and ewd is expected by the close of the TAF period. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 212 AM MDT Fri May 10 2024 A pattern change toward cooler and wetter conditions will persist over northern and eastern NM thru the end of next week. Widespread rainfall of 0.25" to 0.75" is expected for northern and eastern NM thru Sunday morning. Locally higher amounts up to 1.50" may occur over northeast NM during this period. Meanwhile, dry, warm, and breezy conditions will continue over southern and western areas where marginally critical fire weather is possible, especially in the west central highlands today and Saturday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 72 45 70 40 / 10 20 40 5 Dulce........................... 64 33 62 29 / 70 50 80 20 Cuba............................ 65 40 64 36 / 40 30 70 20 Gallup.......................... 70 34 68 33 / 0 0 10 0 El Morro........................ 67 37 66 36 / 5 5 20 0 Grants.......................... 72 37 69 32 / 10 10 30 0 Quemado......................... 71 37 69 36 / 0 0 5 0 Magdalena....................... 73 46 72 43 / 5 20 40 5 Datil........................... 70 40 69 38 / 0 10 20 0 Reserve......................... 75 36 74 32 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 80 48 78 48 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 56 33 55 30 / 80 60 90 30 Los Alamos...................... 61 43 61 42 / 30 50 80 40 Pecos........................... 56 42 54 39 / 30 60 90 60 Cerro/Questa.................... 53 38 54 39 / 70 50 90 40 Red River....................... 46 31 49 29 / 80 60 90 50 Angel Fire...................... 47 32 49 27 / 60 60 90 50 Taos............................ 59 36 60 32 / 50 50 80 40 Mora............................ 51 37 51 32 / 50 60 90 60 Espanola........................ 70 43 68 42 / 30 40 70 40 Santa Fe........................ 62 43 61 42 / 30 60 70 50 Santa Fe Airport................ 65 45 64 41 / 20 50 70 40 Albuquerque Foothills........... 73 49 71 48 / 20 40 70 30 Albuquerque Heights............. 75 51 74 46 / 20 30 60 20 Albuquerque Valley.............. 77 51 76 46 / 20 30 60 20 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 74 50 73 48 / 20 30 60 20 Belen........................... 79 48 78 43 / 10 30 50 20 Bernalillo...................... 74 51 74 46 / 20 40 70 30 Bosque Farms.................... 77 48 77 43 / 20 30 60 20 Corrales........................ 75 50 74 47 / 20 30 60 20 Los Lunas....................... 78 49 77 44 / 20 30 50 20 Placitas........................ 68 47 69 46 / 20 50 70 30 Rio Rancho...................... 74 49 73 47 / 20 30 60 20 Socorro......................... 82 51 82 48 / 5 30 30 10 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 61 43 61 43 / 30 50 80 40 Tijeras......................... 66 46 66 43 / 30 50 70 40 Edgewood........................ 63 44 63 39 / 20 50 80 40 Moriarty/Estancia............... 65 43 64 36 / 20 50 80 40 Clines Corners.................. 57 41 57 38 / 20 60 80 50 Mountainair..................... 68 44 67 40 / 20 50 60 30 Gran Quivira.................... 69 44 69 40 / 10 50 60 30 Carrizozo....................... 77 51 76 48 / 20 40 60 20 Ruidoso......................... 65 46 65 43 / 20 50 70 20 Capulin......................... 52 39 51 39 / 50 40 80 50 Raton........................... 54 40 54 38 / 50 50 80 40 Springer........................ 56 42 54 38 / 40 50 80 50 Las Vegas....................... 54 40 52 39 / 40 60 90 60 Clayton......................... 62 46 59 45 / 20 30 70 60 Roy............................. 58 44 53 44 / 30 60 80 70 Conchas......................... 67 50 60 49 / 20 60 80 80 Santa Rosa...................... 64 48 58 47 / 20 50 80 70 Tucumcari....................... 68 48 62 49 / 20 40 80 80 Clovis.......................... 70 50 61 51 / 20 40 90 70 Portales........................ 71 50 62 51 / 10 50 80 70 Fort Sumner..................... 69 50 61 50 / 20 50 80 70 Roswell......................... 75 58 68 58 / 10 60 60 40 Picacho......................... 67 50 64 48 / 20 50 60 30 Elk............................. 68 48 67 45 / 10 60 60 20 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...42 LONG TERM....24 AVIATION...12