####018004192#### FXUS63 KFGF 091159 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 659 AM CDT Thu May 9 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated thunderstorms in parts of northwest Minnesota Friday afternoon. - Chance for showers and thunderstorms mid next week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 654 AM CDT Thu May 9 2024 A few mid clouds moving south thru eastern ND, but overall will maintain a mostly sunny sky today. Dayshift will monitor temps, as RH values may fall more into the 20s if temps are even warmer than fcst. But winds will be rather light in speed in the 8 to 13 mph range. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 341 AM CDT Thu May 9 2024 Skies are mainly clear over the fcst area as drier air moves in from the north-northeast. Expect a mostly sunny sky today with dry airmass over the area due to high pressure in NW Ontario. NBM temps Wednesday were too cool and did go more of a NBM/NBM90 blend in temps to boost highs 2-3 degrees today in the Red River valley where it was warmest yesterday. RH values will drop into the upper 20 to mid 30 percent range but north wind speeds generally around 10-15 mph will preclude any near critical fire weather conditions in addition to greenup progress due to recent rainfall. 500 mb ridging east today across west and northwest Canada today will allow for trough to return back south into NW Ontraio and the Great Lakes region late tonight into Friday. 500 mb short wave with this feature will move south-southeast thru Minnesota with 500 mb coldest temps located Baudette to Park Rapids and east. Before this does a sfc trough will move east across the area tonight in advance of the southeast moving system. 100 j/kg CAPE and some mid level moisture may produce isolated showers mid/late aftn in western Manitoba, far southeast Saskatchewan and western half of ND. Trough will move east thru the fcst area after dark and no precipitation is expected as it does. With 500 mb short wave moving into Minnesota Friday, coldest 500 mb temps will align with high temps in the 60s in Minnesota to generate 300-700 j/kg mostly in northeast, east central MN with chance for thunderstorms. The western edge of t-storm chances will be the Baudette to Park Rapids corridor. Moisture and instability are considerably less farther west into the Red River valley where chances for any showers Friday afternoon have diminished to less than 15 pct. RH values will drop into the upper 20s within the Red River valley. North-northwest winds look to gust to 30-35 mph or so based on sounding potential with mixing up past 800 mb. With greenup having occurred hard to tell on fuels and if near critical fire wx wording is needed for some areas. Will hold off and let future shifts look at this. Another fast moving short wave from northern Manitoba will move into NW Ontraio Saturday and a weak surface boundary moving thru as well. Timing of this wave in the late aftn/eve Saturday will bring a slight chc of showers to NW MN. Warm day on Sunday with highs well in the 70s all areas, with potential 80 in the valley. Next week still showing quite a bit of uncertainity in regards to the upper air pattern. Overall trends remain that there will be a trough over central Canada and the central US Tues-Thu period with chances for showers and t-storms. Instability doesnt look that high so nothing strong anticipated. Using NBM 4.1 48 hour probs for more than 0.50 inch in the 12z Tue-12z Thu period is 30 percent and probs for more than 1 inch in that period is 10 percent. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 654 AM CDT Thu May 9 2024 VFR thru the pd. Light east/northeast wind in MN turning more north this aftn. Scattered mid cloud at times, otherwise clear. Band of mid clouds with weak trough moving thru later tonight. Not expecting any MVFR cloud bases this period. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...Riddle DISCUSSION...Riddle AVIATION...Riddle ####018005755#### FXUS63 KARX 091159 AFDARX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service La Crosse WI 659 AM CDT Thu May 9 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Rainfall amounts just over an inch have been received in northeast Iowa and rain showers will continue today there into southwest WI. Additional rainfall amounts around 0.25" are expected today. Showers diminish early this evening. - Some frost looks possible (~30% chance) Friday morning in central and northcentral WI. - Showers and storms track southeast across the area Friday afternoon/evening. Rain chances have been increased areawide with a slightly more western track too. Severe storms not expected. - Periodic lower rain chances (20-40%) from the Sunday into next week. Temperatures will be 5 to 10 degrees above the seasonable normals Sunday-Tuesday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 317 AM CDT Thu May 9 2024 Additional Rainfall Today Across Northeast IA and Southwest WI At 3 am, radar indicated rain over northeast Iowa and southwest Wisconsin associated with a deformation band and two shortwave troughs within the broader long wave. Rainfall amounts have been around an inch thus far in the Charles City and New Hampton areas with lesser amounts /0.25 to 0.75/ for the remainder of northeast IA, less than 0.25" in southwest WI. Occasional lightning has been observed along the highway 3 corridor and south in Iowa. The two longwave trough elements over the central U.S /Great Lakes and Neb/SD/ will phase today as upstream ridging over Canada drives the pattern to evolve southeast. This will take the lingering deformation rain band and slowly shift it southeast with increased weak lift renewed this afternoon ahead of the Great Lakes low heading south through WI. 09.06Z RAP indicates a moderate signal of potential vorticity advection in the 300-500MB layer with this sw->ne oriented trough heading south through WI this afternoon aiding in popping off some showers in weak instability. This exists southeast this evening finally ending the rain chances and skies will clear. Frost Possible Friday Morning in Parts of Wisconsin With clearing skies tonight and winds going light with surface ridging building in, frost is looking possible near and north of the Highway 29 corridor in northcentral WI - 10% increasing to 60% on Taylor county northern border. Some patchy frost may also be found further south to the I-94 corridor in WI (15-40% chances). Frost Advisories may be issued later today for this possibility once the area is better defined. Friday and Friday Night Showers and Storms Signals continue to be consistent and impressive with model guidance forecasting a vigorous northwest flow shortwave trough to move through the area later on Friday and Friday evening. Impressive 300-500mb potential vorticity advection, excellent exit region jet dynamical divergence /curvature term is outstanding!/, steepening mid-level lapse rates, and modest low- level theta-e convergence in the 850-925 mb layer all in play Friday later afternoon for organized lift. Trends suggest a noticeable western outlier track through MN in the latest RAP runs /08.21Z and 09.03Z/. Probabilities in the 09.00Z HREF confirm a modest westward shift with 70%+ probabilities of measurable rain northeast of a Rochester MN to Prairie Du Chien WI line by Friday at 7 pm. Thus, have pulled the rain chances southwestward and also increased them for this system much above the NBM guidance. Current rain window is Friday 4-10 pm across the area. Should be a fairly quick hitter with clearing by Saturday morning. Severe storm chances: The wind shear field increases impressively across the area south of the mid-level low /southwest of I-94/ but the big limiting factor is CAPE. With dewpoints in the lower 40s, MLCAPE/SBCAPES are in the low 100s J/Kg. Even so, the 09.00Z HREF CAMS show a 70% chance of 40dBZ or higher Friday afternoon along the Miss river. So, weak instability and strong dynamical lift are probably enough for pea-penny sized hail and gusts to 35 mph with this system as it is coming through at peak heating. Sunday through Thursday: Warmer with Low Shower Chances (20-40%) Weak ridging aloft with increasing southerly flow and moisture returning Sunday will bring an airmass into play that could pop some showers. Overall, no weather system looks particularly strong until possibly mid-week. So, this weak forcing with mild temperatures and low shower chances defines the period. A bit swifter near-zonal flow looks in play for mid-week and beyond but confidence is quite low for any details with abundant spread in the forecast pattern suggested. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 631 AM CDT Thu May 9 2024 Mostly VFR conditions seen across the Upper Mississippi River Valley early this morning during 09.12Z TAF issuance. Precipitation impacts primarily impact locally southern counties from northeast Iowa into southwest Wisconsin. Confidence decreases on northern edge of this precipitation, along am east-west line between both TAF sites (KLSE/KRST). Any thunder chances will be limited, higher confidence along southern periphery. Regardless, low level moisture expected to introduce lower MVFR ceilings from south to north, affecting both TAF sites later this morning potentially. Lasting most of the day. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. MN...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Baumgardt AVIATION...JAR