####018007386#### FXUS62 KMHX 090830 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 330 AM EST Tue Dec 9 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure will lift NE away from the area with high pressure building into the area through tonight. High pressure moves offshore Wednesday ahead of a fast moving front that will push across the area Wednesday night. High pressure builds in Thursday and Friday, then pushes offshore Friday night ahead of another low pressure system potentially impacting the area this weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... As of 130 AM Tuesday... Key messages... - Patchy black ice possible early this morning across the coastal plain. - Cool and mainly dry today. Low pressure continues to push away from the area early this morning and precip has ended for the most part, although KMHX radar continues to show a few light returns across ENC. Low stratus persists across ENC with temps around 30 across the western coastal plain to lower 40s across the OBX. CAA continues to bring breezy north winds and will see temps drop into the mid 20s across inland areas to 30s coast by daybreak. Below freezing temps will bring a concern for black ice across areas where moisture lingers on roadways through the morning commute. Areas most susceptible to black ice will be elevated surfaces such as bridges and overpasses. High pressure builds into the area today bringing decreasing winds and clearing skies through early afternoon. Generally dry conditions today although several HighRes models show weak low level convergence along and just off the OBX today with a few light showers persisting, mainly through the morning hours with convergence weakening this afternoon. A weak shortwave approaches this afternoon bringing increasing high clouds. Temps will be around 15 degrees below normal today with highs in the low to mid 40s. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/... As of 2 AM Tuesday...High clouds clear mid to late evening as a weak shortwave pushes east of the area. Sfc high pressure centered across the area this evening will push swd after midnight as another shortwave and attendant front/trough approaches the area. Light/calm winds with clear skies overnight will bring good radiational cooling conditions and expect lows in the mid 20s inland to 30s along the immediate coast. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 230 AM Tuesday... Key messages... - Gusty winds and warmer Wednesday ahead of a dry frontal boundary - A low pressure system with limited moisture is expected on Sunday Wednesday and Wednesday night...A robust northern stream shortwave approaches the East Coast Wednesday with the attendant surface low pushing across the Great Lakes and trailing cold front pushing across the region Wednesday night. Will see increasing mid and high clouds but moisture is quite limited with this system and not expecting any precip. Tightening pressure gradients ahead of the front will bring SW winds with gusts to around 25-35 mph. SW winds will also bring a nice warm up with high expected in the mid to upper 50s. The front pushes through Wednesday night with winds becoming NW and lows expected in the mid 30s inland to around 40 coast. Thursday through Friday...High pressure builds in from the west Thursday and Friday bringing dry conditions and mainly sunny skies, although dampening shortwave may bring increasing high clouds on Friday. Below normal temps continue with highs in the upper 40s to mid 50s and low Thursday night in the mid 20s inland to 30s coast. Saturday through Monday...09/00z guidance has yet another robust northern stream shortwave approaching the area Saturday and pushing across the area Sunday with a sfc low refection lifting across VA and the attendant cold front pushing across ENC Sunday night. Moisture appears limited with this system with best forcing focused north of the area and don't expect much precip with this system at this time. Warmer temps Saturday and Sunday ahead of the front with highs in the 50s to around 60 and lows in the upper 30s/lower 40s. Arctic high pressure builds in from the north behind the front with much colder air building back into the area early next week. && .AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 1230 AM Tuesday... Key Messages... - MVFR/IFR ceilings will linger through most of tonight, with conditions gradually improving to VFR by Tuesday morning Widespread MVFR ceilings remain entrenched across much of ENC, with some sites still noting IFR ceilings (including EWN). Ceilings will continue to linger between 900-1500 ft through the next few hours before ceilings start to erode due to the combination of drier low-level air working its way in and subsidence aloft. VFR conditions will then return to ENC from northwest to southeast through this morning before persisting through the end of the period. Winds will calm through the overnight hours, becoming light and variable tomorrow. Skies will remain mostly clear Tuesday except for some high clouds building in later in the day. Outlook: VFR conditions largely persist until this weekend. && .MARINE... As of 3 AM Tuesday... Key Messages - Winds and seas gradually diminish through tonight. - Southwest winds increase Wednesday and Wednesday night with Small Craft Advisories expected most waters and Gales near the Gulf Stream. Today and Tonight...Winds and seas gradually diminish across the waters through tonight as high pressure builds across the area. Gales near the Gulf Stream will end shortly. Winds expected to drop below SCA criteria by mid morning, however elevated seas will keep the SCA continuing through the evening for the coastal waters, and into Wednesday for the central waters. Wednesday and Wednesday night...SW increase quickly on Wednesday ahead of a frontal system with SCA conditions developing across most of the waters and Gales possible near the Gulf Stream, especially in gusts. Have issued a Gale Watch for late Wednesday and Wednesday night for the coastal waters south of Oregon Inlet. The front will push across the waters Wednesday night with winds becoming NW and gradually diminishing late. Thursday through Saturday...High pressure builds across the waters Thursday and Friday, then slides off the coast Saturday. Conditions expected to drop below SCA criteria by Thursday afternoon with descent boating conditions continuing into Saturday. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST early this morning for AMZ131-230-231. Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for AMZ135. Small Craft Advisory until midnight EST tonight for AMZ150-156- 158. Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM EST Wednesday for AMZ152-154. Gale Watch from Wednesday afternoon through late Wednesday night for AMZ152-154-156-158. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...SK SHORT TERM...SK LONG TERM...SK AVIATION...ZC MARINE...SK ####018004643#### FXUS63 KAPX 090834 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 334 AM EST Tue Dec 9 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Accumulating snow today with a general 1 to 3 inches of additional snow for most. - Another round of accumulating snow tonight into Wednesday. - Additional snow chances Friday into the weekend. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 318 AM EST Tue Dec 9 2025 Pattern Synopsis and Forecast: Short wave and subsequent frontal boundary will move eastward through northern MI today, resulting in widespread accumulating snow. General thinking is for 1 to 3 inches throughout a majority of the region during the day today (heavier amounts across west Mack this morning), quickly diminishing from west to east through the afternoon hours. Low pressure system to our north will tighten the pressure gradient across the area, especially early in the day, resulting in periods of blowing snow in spots. Given the southerly winds and the falling/already accumulated snow across portions of western Mack early in the morning, significant blowing and drifting snow will be possible across US-2. Next trough will be right on this systems heels, as it dives to the southeast across the Upper Midwest through tonight. Response will be a sfc low pressure that moves across MN, WI, and the eastward into C- S MI. Consequently, accumulating snow will begin to spread across northern lower MI tonight on the northern side of this system. Read on for more details. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 318 AM EST Tue Dec 9 2025 Day 2-3 (Wednesday - Thursday): As previously mentioned, short wave dives to the southeast Tuesday night into Wednesday with subsequent low pressure system across the central - southern portions of MI. Still some subtle differences within the model guidance on the exact handling/phasing of the mid levels, which ultimately influences the low level height and sfc pressure fields. Consensus between between the GFS and ECMWF suggests a track across southern portions of MI, which would shift the QPF and subsequent heaviest snows a little to the south. Meanwhile, other pieces of guidance are a little farther north across central MI which would bring the accumulating snows farther northward. When investigating the ECMWF ENS MSLP low positions, there is still considerable spread in low pressure track, or how the low level height fields are being processed, at this time scale. One thing is for certain at this time, northern lower is at play for the steadiest snows, and especially south of M-32. Feel most comfortable with M-72 on southward for an advisory, based on some of the ensemble output with the highest probs for >3". This will likely be a ~2-6" snow event for our neck of the woods for the advisory locations. This system will quickly move to the east later Wednesday with northwest flow and cold advection in its wake. Thus, expect a transition to northwest flow lake effect snow showers later Wednesday into Thursday. Global guidance not spitting out a whole lot of QPF at this time, but the northwest snow belts will remain wintry through mid week. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1136 PM EST Mon Dec 8 2025 Period of IFR vsbys expected in -SHSN at all sites between very late tonight and early Tuesday afternoon. This will affect the area from w to e, with the shortest period of IFR conditions expected at APN. Otherwise mostly VFR until the snow arrives, and MVFR cigs after the snow ends. Southerly winds increase and become blustery tonight, veering sw/wsw during the day Tuesday. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for MIZ020-025-031-086-098. Winter Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 4 PM EST Wednesday for MIZ020-025>036-041-042. Winter Storm Warning until 10 AM EST this morning for MIZ095. Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for MIZ096. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for LHZ345>347. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for LHZ348- 349. Gale Warning until 7 AM EST this morning for LMZ323-341-342- 344>346. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for LSZ321- 322. && $$ SHORT TERM...JLD LONG TERM...JLD AVIATION...JZ