####018007111#### FXUS63 KIND 261346 AFDIND Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 946 AM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Becoming Cloudy with rain chances this afternoon and evening; Warmer. - Clouds with rain chances tonight. - Above normal temperatures and numerous chances for showers and thunderstorms expected through the long term. && .FORECAST UPDATE... Issued at 945 AM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024 Hi-Res soundings and obs are showing a dry boundary layer over central Indiana this morning with high pressure over the eastern states and a low pressure system over the Plains. Meanwhile, an upper ridge was overhead. Visible satellite was showing increasing mid and high clouds, while radar was showing showers dissipate as they move northeast into southwestern Indiana. Nonetheless, with isentropic lift ramping up and some moistening from the top down, will keep chance PoPs going this afternoon. Despite the increasing cloud cover, warm advection with breezy southeast winds should allow temperatures to climb all the way to the middle and upper 60s. && .SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)... Issued at 312 AM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024 Synopsis: Surface analysis early this morning shows strong high pressure in place over Upstate NY and New England. Deep low pressure was found across western Kansas. This pattern was resulting in dry easterly surface flow across Central Indiana and dew point temperatures were in the dry 30s. GOES16 shows the arrival of high cloud pushing into Central Indiana from the middle Mississippi Valley. Water vapor shows ridging in place over the Plains aloft, with a plume of tropical moisture streaming into the Mississippi Valley. Radar shows some light showers across eastern MO, southern IL and far western KY. These showers were making better progress southeast than northeast due to the flow aloft. Today... Models suggests the ridge axis aloft found to the west will advance east, pushing across Indiana to Ohio and the eastern Great Lakes tonight. This will allow for the development of southerly flow aloft and the advancement of the previously mentioned tropical moisture plume over Central Indiana. Meanwhile at the surface, the low pressure system over KS will advance northeast, making slow progress due to the strong blocking high. However the GFS 300K isentropic surface shows strong up glide arriving this afternoon with specific humidities over 8 g/kg. Lower level flow remaining dry and from the east will hamper the development of precipitation this afternoon. HRRR shows very scattered shower development as the forcing arrives this afternoon and persists into the evening. Models are a bit different on the strength and organization of the upper forcing, but are more in agreement with the isentropic lift arriving as the ridge axis exits east and southwest flow develops. Thus given these features will include a dry morning forecast, and begin to ramp up to chc pops only this afternoon and early evening. Confidence remains low on specific timing and location due to the moisture needing to overcome the dry easterly surface flow. Given the development of southwest flow and warm air advection today, will trend highs into the middle 60s. Tonight... Little overall change is expected in the weather pattern tonight. The surface low over NB is expected to trek northeast toward the western Great Lakes, while the strong area of surface high pressure over the east coast blocks its progress eastward. This continues to result in southerly flow across Central Indiana overnight. The strong upper ridge previously mentioned also remains over the east coast, keeping southwest flow aloft over Central Indiana. Models do trend toward a windy night as a moderate pressure gradient remains in place across Central Indiana along with a 50 knt LLJ over IL and and Indiana within the warm sector ahead of the low to the northeast. Isentropic lift and warm air advection remain in place overnight as this much more humid air mass arrives. Overnight, forecast soundings trend toward saturation with pwats over 1.3 inches. Thus will use at least likely pops given these features, however again precip may be more scattered than constant. Given the continued warm air advection, will trend overnight lows toward around 60. && .LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)... Issued at 312 AM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024 The long term period will be one of above normal temperatures and an active pattern for showers and thunderstorms. Highs will range from the low 70s up to the mid 80s, with Sunday being the warmest day during the timeframe as the region sits under strong southerly to southwesterly flow for most of the time. Multiple waves will be moving through a larger troughing pattern that will remain fairly stagnant through at least midweek. The first system will be on its way out Saturday as slight chance PoPs start out the day but will diminish by the end of the day. The next wave will bring additional rain from Sunday night through around midweek. By midweek the upper pattern becomes noisier in the models but seems to take on more of a zonal pattern with additional waves that may still impact the region from midweek into the end of the week. At this time confidence is lower for the end of the period as far as PoPs go. Luckily, at least through early next week, stronger to potentially severe storms look to remain to the west and southwest of Indiana, where the best instability will be. By Monday or Tuesday, better convection potential could reach central Indiana, leaving a non-zero severe threat but this should become clearer in the coming days. && .AVIATION (06Z TAF Issuance)... Issued at 1235 AM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024 Impacts: - VFR Conditions expected overnight and on Friday Morning. - Showers possible Friday afternoon along with possible high MVFR Cigs. Discussion: GOES16 shows high clouds over the middle Mississippi Valley spreading east across the TAF sites. These clouds were associated with an upper wave that was found over the plains. This feature is expected to advance east, allowing the high clouds to continue to overspread the TAF sites through through the overnight hours. As the best forcing arrives on Friday afternoon scattered showers are expected. Forecast soundings at that time show deep saturation arriving by mid to late afternoon. Hence have used vcsh mention for a window along with high MVFR Cigs into the evening to account what should be light precip amounts. Confidence for specific timing remains low, thus VCSH seems the best route at this time. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...MK SHORT TERM...Puma LONG TERM...KF AVIATION...Puma ####018004878#### FXUS62 KRAH 261347 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 946 AM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will dominate the eastern United States through the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/... As of 946 AM Thursday... Water vapor imagery this morning depicts mid-level ridging over the deep south/Midwest and wnwly flow over central NC. At the sfc, a 1032 mb high is currently anchored over central NJ. This feature continues to extend light nely flow down into central NC. Residual stratus this morning should largely dissipate this afternoon. Given the cooler nely flow, highs should max out in the mid 60s to lower 70s this afternoon. As we pivot to this evening, a warm from currently extending into the TN valley will lift north into the Ohio Valley. This feature will sock back in clouds overnight and perhaps provide enough saturation to squeeze out some patchy light rain over the Triad for a few hours tonight. Elsewhere should remain dry. OVernight lows will dip into the lower to mid 50s. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 345 AM Friday... Within a high amplitude mid-level ridge that will extend across the ern US, a 319-320 dam anticyclone at 700 mb will become firmly established over the Carolinas. At the surface, 1035 mb, cP high centered just off the srn New England coast at 12Z Sat will weaken and modify while drifting swd and just off the Middle Atlantic coast through 12Z Sun, during which time surface winds over cntl NC will veer from ely to sly. A band of 700 mb-centered saturation and altocumulus will linger across the srn Middle Atlantic, in generally nly flow around the aforementioned anticyclone centered over the Carolinas. A combination of that cloudiness and passing high-level moisture, some remnant to strong-severe convection upstream across the Plains and MS Valley, will yield partly to variably cloudy conditions over cntl NC. Temperatures will moderate with modification of the surface high and airmass, and veering surface flow, with highs ranging from upr 60s-low 70s across the nrn Coastal Plain and far ne Piedmont to upper 70s-near 80 in the srn Piedmont. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 400 AM Friday... Unseasonably warm and mainly dry. A slowly progressive, high amplitude ridge in the mid-levels will drift across and offshore the South and Middle Atlantic through Tuesday, downstream of a weak shortwave trough that will progress through the region late Tue-Tue night. Low amplitude, quasi-zonal flow will then prevail across the srn mid-latitudes and including cntl NC through mid-late next week, poleward of an expansive sub- tropical ridge that will extend from the swrn N. Atlantic wwd and across the Gulf of Mexico. At the surface, cP high pressure will continue to migrate swd along and just offshore the Middle and South Atlantic coasts through early next week. As the high drifts swd and steadily modifies, it will direct warm sswly flow across cntl NC throughout mid-late next week. It still appears the synoptic frontal zone will remain to the north and west of cntl NC throughout the forecast period, while a pre- frontal/lee trough will otherwise assume an average position across the srn Middle Atlantic Piedmont. Only isolated, diurnally-driven convection will result in cntl NC, with the relative best chance over the far wrn NC Piedmont Tue afternoon-evening (~30 percent), when the aforementioned weak shortwave trough moves across the region and interacts with the lee trough there. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 645 AM Friday... 24 hour TAF period: While the Triad terminals remain VFR as of 10Z, elsewhere largely MVFR/IFR cigs prevail. Still expect the cigs at the Triad terminals to drop to MVFR/IFR this morning and linger there longest. Cigs should lift/scatter through the morning hours, with a return to VFR at all terminals by early aft. Otherwise, expect VFR conditions to dominate through 03Z Sat, with a redevelopment of some MVFR cigs tonight, mainly at KINT/KGSO, but possible elsewhere. Some light rain/drizzle will also be possible at KINT/KGSO early Sat morn. Outlook: While still a bit uncertain at this time, there may be some borderline VFR/MVFR cigs Sun morn. Otherwise, largely VFR conditions are expected through Tue. Generally dry weather is expected through Mon. The next chance for showers will be Tue aft/eve. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Green NEAR TERM...Luchetti SHORT TERM...MWS LONG TERM...MWS AVIATION...KC ####018006785#### FXUS62 KMLB 261347 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 947 AM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION, MARINE... .UPDATE... Issued at 945 AM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024 Quiet on the KMLB WSR-88D radar this morning. Satellite and local observations show there are a few low to mid level clouds streaming across the area. The 10Z XMR sounding shows the mid layer is beginning to moisten, with the upper layer remaining dry. Forecast soundings show PW values will increase to around 1.2" into this afternoon as low level moisture increases. Mostly sunny skies are forecast for today as surface high pressure remains in place. Easterly winds will increase into this afternoon, gusting as high as 20-25 mph. Temperatures will be seasonable today with afternoon highs in the low to mid 80s. While most areas will remain dry today, some CAM guidance shows isolated light showers/sprinkles developing across the Volusia and Brevard waters into this afternoon as low level moisture increases in the onshore flow, with some of this activity possibly making it to the coast. Thus, have added isolated very light showers along the coast from Brevard to Volusia for this afternoon. Forecast remains on track with only change being adding the sprinkles/light rain showers along the Volusia/Brevard coasts. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFs) Issued at 945 AM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024 VFR conditions through the TAF period. Light and variable winds will become easterly by mid-morning and increase to 10-15 KT with gusts 20-25 KT possible into this afternoon. Winds will then decrease to 5- 10 KT overnight. Dry conditions through the period, although light showers/sprinkles will be possible along the coast, mainly DAB, into this afternoon. However confidence is too low to include VCSH wording at this time. && .MARINE... Issued at 945 AM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024 Favorable boating conditions through today as high pressure remains in place, with conditions beginning to deteriorate overnight. Easterly winds will increase to 10-15 KT into this afternoon, with occasional gusts to 20-25 KT possible. Winds will continue to increase into tonight, becoming 15-20 KT overnight. Seas 2-3ft today will increase to 4-5ft in the nearshore waters and 5-6ft in the offshore waters tonight. Small craft will need to exercise caution across all the waters tonight. Mostly dry conditions through tonight, however local guidance is indicating isolated light showers/sprinkles will be possible through today from Cape Canaveral northward as the low level moisture increases over the area. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 345 AM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024 Today...Relative humidity values this afternoon recover some as moisture increases a bit over the area. Values in the mid 30 to low 40 percent range are expected west of I-95. Easterly winds gradually increase through the day, gusting around 20 mph at times, especially at the coast. Sat-Tue...Onshore winds increase a bit more into the weekend 15 mph/15-20 mph (Sat) with higher gusts (highest along the coast), decreasing just a bit into early next week as the pgrad relaxes slightly. Min RHs stay above critical levels on Sat-Mon, but as temperatures climb into next week, we will see values fall back to 35-40pct over the interior by Tue again. Conditions mainly dry outside of a sprinkle/brief light shower along the coast due to the deepening onshore flow (chances less than 15%). && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... Issued at 345 AM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024 Today-Tonight...Calm conditions are in place to start the day across east central Florida. Temperatures range from the low 60s to the low 70s (coast) under a mostly clear sky. RAP analysis and satellite imagery indicate some mid level cloud development over northern portions of coastal Volusia county and the adjacent waters, due to some saturation around 800-850mb. Surface high pressure is forecast to stay locked in place as mid level ridging builds east from the Gulf of Mexico today. Easterly winds will pick up this afternoon, gusting as high as 20-25 mph, with temperatures reaching seasonable levels in the low to mid 80s. At the beaches, a high risk of rip currents exists, so entering the water is discouraged. Sat-Sun...Mid-upper level ridging will encompass much of the Eastern Seaboard thru the weekend. Mid-level impulses will occasionally slide down the peninsula, though we continue to retain mostly dry conditions with a stable onshore flow and less than modest moisture. However, will not rule out a few showers across the local coastal waters and cannot entirely rule out some spits/sprinkles along the coast due to the deep, persistent, onshore flow. Surface high pressure will dominate across much of the eastern CONUS. The pgrad will be tight enough for breezy conditions each afternoon, especially along the coast. Expect gusts of 20 to 25 mph to be common, with 30 mph within reach along the immediate coast (esp Sat). Afternoon highs in the U70s to around 80F at the coast and L80s into the interior. Overnight lows mild and well into the 60s each early morning. Mon-Fri...The upper ridging begins to break down and shift off of the Atlc Seaboard into the western Atlc. Initial surface high pressure off of the Carolinas will also continue to weaken thru mid-week, while gradually shifting southward, then further seaward by the end of the work-week. The onshore surface flow stays mostly intact, with winds gradually veering a bit more SE/S, though the pgrad will slowly weaken during this time. Continue to keep conditions over land dry. Again, overall (low) coverage potential at the moment, keeping mention of a sprinkle/brief light shower along the coast out of the grids/zones. A warming trend will ensue, with L80s at the immediate coast, perhaps some M80s here by Thu/Fri, and M-U80s into the interior - perhaps some readings near 90F or just above into the interior Wed-Fri. Overnight lows remain consistent and in the 60s areawide. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 81 66 79 66 / 10 10 10 0 MCO 85 65 82 67 / 0 0 0 0 MLB 81 69 80 67 / 0 0 0 0 VRB 82 67 81 66 / 0 0 0 0 LEE 85 66 83 65 / 0 0 0 0 SFB 84 65 82 66 / 0 0 0 0 ORL 84 65 82 67 / 0 0 0 0 FPR 81 66 81 65 / 0 0 10 0 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ Watson/Heil ####018006049#### FXUS61 KCTP 261349 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 949 AM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure near Ottawa Canada will provide a relatively cool, east to southeasterly flow of air today, but conditions will be dry. A warm front will drift northeast across the Commonwealth Saturday but moisture associated with it will be limited and showers occurring along and ahead of this boundary will be relatively light. Daytime high temperatures will jump by around 20 degrees on Sunday with just a few showers or thunderstorms confined to the northern Mountains of the state. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Sparkling morning for most thanks to sprawling Canadian sfc high. A very weak, surface trough combined with a transport of llvl western Atlantic moisture is keeping sct-bkn stratocu over the Laurel Highlands and parts of the South Central Pennsylvania. We still expect mixing to help mix out much of this moisture by midday, leaving scattered, cumulus pancakus for the late morning and afternoon hours. Low humidity once again today will create excellent vsby as layer PWAT values are only around 0.3 of an inch. Temps will be 3-6 deg warmer than Thursday. Look for high in the upper 50s across the Northern and Western Mtns and low 60s in the Central and Southern Valleys. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... Showers along a warm front will spread into the Western Alleghenies very late tonight or more likely early-mid morning Saturday - based on the latest operational model/HREF consensus. PWATs will surge from west to east very late tonight and Saturday, reaching 1-1.2 inches, along and in the wake of a warm front. Late Saturday morning through mid afternoon Saturday holds the greatest chance for showers. QPF will be quite light, ranging from 1-2 tenths of an inch across the Western Mtns to between 0.05 and 0.10 across the Central Mtns and just a few hundredths of an inch expected across the Southeast. Min temps tonight will be 6-12F milder than early this Friday. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Lingering clouds with just some patchy drizzle and light fog are possible later Sat night. Mins Sat night/Sunday morning will climb by another 7-9 deg F compared to readings early Saturday. Brightening skies and markedly warmer conditions appear likely Sunday, as the warm front lifts north of the region. However, ensemble plumes indicate scattered PM convection is possible, especially over the N Mtns, where progged pwats are highest and temps aloft coolest. Fair and unseasonably warm weather is likely Monday, as anomalous upper level ridge crests over the state. Mean 850mb temps near 15C supports max temps in the low to mid 80s. All medium range guidance points to a good chance of PM convection Tuesday associated with the passage of a mid level shortwave. Diverging model solutions and greater uncertainty then creep into the forecast the second half of next week. Upper level ridging and above average temperatures look very likely. However, timing differences exist with regard to an upstream trough and associated cold front late next week. Expect a widespread round of convection to accompany the front either Thu PM or Friday. && .AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... A few patches of low clouds can be seen on satellite this morning across southern portions of Central Pennsylvania. While they are decreasing in coverage, there is a low probability (around 20%) that they could lead to brief periods of MVFR ceilings at JST for the next hour or two. However, confidence in this occurring is too low to include it in the TAF. Once these clouds dissipate, high pressure will allow for clear skies through most of the day. High clouds will begin to move in from the west ahead of an approaching warm front and ceilings will begin to lower from west to east after 00Z Saturday. Ceilings and visibilities will begin to drop to IFR after 12Z on Saturday as rain showers begin to move into the region. Model soundings indicate the potential for a brief period of LLWS at BFD and JST this late this evening as winds around 1500 feet increase to 35 to 40 knots. Outlook... Sat...Scattered shra. IFR cigs possible Central Mtns. Sun...AM low cigs possible, mainly N Mtns. Isold PM tsra possible. Mon...No sig wx expected. Tue...Sct PM tsra impacts possible. && .FIRE WEATHER... Fuel moisture may fall below 10% over the next two days. Return flow around departing high pressure on Friday may slightly increase the potential for spread on Friday afternoon, mainly across the higher terrain to the NW of a KCBE to KAOO and KUNV line where SE wind gusts into the mid and upper teens are possible for about 3 hours this afternoon. MinRH this afternoon (Fri) is forecast to be mainly between 30 and 35 percent, though the Laurel Highlands will only dip to between 40 and 45 percent. An approaching warm front will result in a cloudy and relatively cool Saturday, with a chance of showers accompanying the passage of a weakening, south to southwesterly low level jet. Weak large scale forcing under an upper level ridge should result in minimal rainfall. Most likely rainfall by Sat PM based on ensemble plumes ranges from around 0.2 inches over the N Mtns, to just a few hundreths over the southeast counties. Increasing low level moisture/dewpoints along with some rain will limit fire weather concerns this weekend. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Lambert/DeVoir NEAR TERM...Lambert/DeVoir/Dangelo SHORT TERM...Lambert/DeVoir LONG TERM...Fitzgerald/NPB AVIATION...Bauco FIRE WEATHER...Steinbugl