####018005266#### FXUS62 KMFL 072316 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 616 PM EST Sun Dec 7 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 550 PM EST Sun Dec 7 2025 - Dry and comfortable weather continues through tonight, when chances for rain start to increase ahead a frontal approach. - Above average temperatures continue today with highs in the mid to upper 80s. && .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Monday) Issued at 202 PM EST Sun Dec 7 2025 The adjustment to the ongoing forecast scenario is the push of a secondary frontal boundary on Monday, which also pushes the lingering decaying boundary over central Florida into SoFlo by Monday morning. Latest ensembles and NBM solutions show the main front finally pushing across SoFlo from early Monday morning through the afternoon hours. It should then reach the Florida Keys by Mon early evening, but this timing might be adjusted depending on the migration of the parent low system further north. For today, the aforementioned front/low activity will weaken the mid/uppr lvl ridging aloft, and allow for chances of rain to begin increasing from north to south starting later this afternoon and into the evening hours. Ahead of the front, prevailing S/SW flow will keep afternoon temperatures in the mid-upper 80s today. Latest model PWATs remain around 1.5 to 1.8 inches, with the bulk of the rain activity most likely happening between early morning and early afternoon on Monday. Isolated thunderstorms are also possible as the ridge aloft erodes and the air mass becomes more unstable. But overall thermodynamic parameters don't look too supportive for deep convection, as depicted by deterministic guidance like CAM. But a couple of strong to severe thunderstorms can't be rule out, especially during the late morning and early afternoon hours. Rainfall accumulations should remain below 1 inch for most of the area, but there is a 1 in 10 chances that some spots in the vicinity of Lake Okeechobee could get 1-2 inches of rain throughout the day on Monday. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 1237 AM EST Sun Dec 7 2025 Cooler, drier air is forecast to move over the area behind the front on Tuesday and high pressure will build over the southeast US and the Florida peninsula. This should help promote fair weather and dry conditions through the middle of the week. Temperatures on Tuesday morning will dip to the mid 50s across the interior and mid 60s along the East Coast, and will struggle to rise above the upper 70s in the afternoon. The next cold front to watch could make its approach late next week, although much uncertainty remains regarding timing and intensity, especially given the complex interactions at play over the continental US during this time period. Cluster analysis for days 5- 6 (Thursday-Friday) show generalized differences between the ECMWF, GEFS and GEPS ensemble members, with the European model generally favoring a slower and weaker trough (which would result in a weaker front and slower/later approach to our area), while the GEFS/GEPS split the difference in faster/stronger solutions with fewer ensemble members overall. For now, we're keeping the NBM forecast for increased moisture and low-end PoPs (15-30%) starting Friday, but but we'll continue to monitor for any changes to the forecast. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 602 PM EST Sun Dec 7 2025 Periods of VCSH/VCTS will begin to develop overnight and into the morning hours as a frontal boundary reaches the area. TAFs might require tempos around the 15-22Z period, for which prob30s are now in place. As shower and thunderstorm activity spreads across the area, local MVFR/IFR conditions are possible at times. SSW winds are expected to become L/V overnight, then SW/W after 15Z ahead of the front, and finally shifting more northerly behind the front this evening. && .MARINE... Issued at 1237 AM EST Sun Dec 7 2025 Generally benign boating conditions prevail over the weekend as light to moderate southerly to southwesterly breeze persists. Seas are forecast to remain at 1-3 feet across all local waters. As we head into next week, conditions could deteriorate as winds increase and veer from the north with a frontal passage. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 73 85 67 76 / 10 60 20 20 West Kendall 70 85 64 78 / 10 60 10 20 Opa-Locka 72 85 65 78 / 20 60 20 20 Homestead 72 85 66 78 / 10 50 10 30 Fort Lauderdale 72 84 66 76 / 20 70 20 10 N Ft Lauderdale 72 84 66 76 / 20 70 10 10 Pembroke Pines 72 85 65 78 / 20 70 20 20 West Palm Beach 71 83 65 76 / 30 70 10 10 Boca Raton 71 84 66 77 / 20 70 20 10 Naples 72 81 61 77 / 50 50 10 0 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...17 LONG TERM....ATV AVIATION...17 ####018002738#### FXUS64 KLUB 072317 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 517 PM CST Sun Dec 7 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 514 PM CST Sun Dec 7 2025 - Mild and dry through Thursday until a strong cold front brings chilly weather toward week's end. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Monday) Issued at 1105 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025 Clearing skies were taking charge this afternoon on the heels of a shortwave trough that overperformed with clouds and even some showers in the Friona area this morning. A chilly surface ridge centered near the Highway 83 corridor will peel east tonight ahead of light SSw winds which should keep lows from getting too cold. Am skeptical of the NAM's fog potential in the Childress area Monday morning as this looks overdone for 3-6 degree dewpoint depressions. Aloft, swift NW flow and mostly clear skies carry into Monday as lee troughing delivers breezy southwest winds and highs in the 60s. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 1105 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025 For the remainder of the week we remain locked under dry NW flow which will be host to a pair of cold fronts - the first arriving Wednesday followed by a more robust version late Thursday. Until these FROPAs, a very mild and breezy afternoon awaits Tuesday thanks to amplified lee troughing. NBM's winds on Tuesday seem too soft for this pattern, so opted for its 75th percentile which aligns better with MOS. Lower thicknesses spill south on northerly winds for Wednesday followed by a quick rebound to WSW breezes overnight into Thursday. Thursday has potential to be the warmest day all week provided we see enhanced compressional warming ahead of a strong FROPA arriving later in the day. Am leery of the deterministic GFS's and ECMWF's weaker FROPA late Thursday followed by an arctic surge some 24 hours later. The NBM at least trended colder for Friday and Saturday which fits well with the more singular cold theme shown by the GEFS and to a lesser extent the EPS. With maxT standard deviations of 7 to 10 from Friday into Saturday, we'll keep temps close to the mean this many days out until details become more clear. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 514 PM CST Sun Dec 7 2025 VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Light winds tonight will become south to southwest and increase into a range from 10 to 20 kts late Monday morning through the end of the period. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...93 LONG TERM....93 AVIATION...07 ####018008360#### FXUS61 KPBZ 072317 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 617 PM EST Sun Dec 7 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Light snow accumulation expected on Sunday primarily north and east of Pittsburgh. Continued rounds of rain and snow chances will prevail through next week with increasing wind Tuesday and Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... KEY MESSAGES: - Light snow early tonight with up to an inch along and north of I-80, little to no accumulation elsewhere. - Cold overnight lows in the teens --------------------------------------------------------------- ..7:00pm Update.. The forecast remains on track with mostly light snow observed south of I-80, and perhaps a light coating observed thus far north of I-80 as evidenced by webcams. All precipitation that has fallen has been observed as snow thus far with seeder-feeder processes. Snow load remains a minimal concern through this evening. Timing has snowfall rates deteriorating after 10pm, with perhaps only some flurries elsewhere overnight. While most road temperatures have remained above freezing with no accumulations on roadways observed (as of 6:00pm), with the potential downtrend of area temperatures there may be some icy spots on roads with refreezing of any standing water in areas that see the highest QPF (most likely north of Pittsburgh). Extra caution is advised if on the roads this evening or overnight. ..Previous Discussion.. Across the lowlands south of I-80, some light snow showers are possible as potential seeder-feeder effects can saturate the dry layer enough, but with little to no accumulation. Along and north of I-80 is where the "higher" snowfall amounts will be as moisture is a bit better and closer proximity to the shortwave and front overlap aids in forcing. 12z HREF probability for measurable snow is 70-90% along and north of 80 as well as in the PA ridges, but sharply drops off to <20% farther south and in the lowlands. Bumping up to a half an inch shows <10% for our entire area, even after increasing the neighborhood radius to account for spatial uncertainty. So, most will see perhaps a dusting while the higher elevations and I-80 corridor could see up to a half an inch at most. Surface high pressure quickly builds in the wake of the frontal passage and ushers in a colder airmass from Canada. Dew points tank into the low teens/single digits overnight thus lowering the potential floor for radiational cooling, but it appears that enough of a northerly flow and slow to clear cloud cover is going to offset it. Still, lows will dip into the teens for most and single digits north of I-80. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... KEY MESSAGES: - Dry and cold Monday under high pressure - Another light snow north of Pittsburgh Tuesday ---------------------------------------------------------------- Surface high pressure will cross the region Monday, which will yield light winds, but also well below normal temperatures as the cP airmass transitions over the forecast area. Although daytime max temperatures will be 15-20 degrees below normal on average across the region,m for perspective, they will still be 10 to 15 degrees warmer than current low max records. Expect highs between 20 to upper 20s. A shortwave within the relatively zonal flow crosses the Great Lakes on Tuesday, returning a slight chance of snow north of PGH during the day associated with a weak surface low. Thermal profiles look to support a melting snowfall as modest WAA supports daytime highs in the mid 30s across much of the region. Accumulations on roadways look unlikely from this system. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... KEY MESSAGES: - Below normal temperatures continue through the long term. - Additional rounds of potential winter weather with a series of passing disturbances mid and late week. ------------------------------------------------------------------- Upper troughing will continue to be the dominant feature the second half of the upcoming week, which will maintain the relatively active pattern. Continued WAA across the region leaves overnight lows near that freezing mark but supports daytime highs climbing into the low 40s on Wednesday. As such the next system looks to be more of a rain/snow mix, with snow most likely across the ridges and north of I-80 and rain favored elsewhere. Accumulations of snow, most likely in the PA/WV ridges and north of I-80, would wind down through the day as temperatures climb and many areas turn over to rain. The cold front sweeps the region late Wednesday turning remaining precipitation back to snow. QPF estimates from this system remain near 0.25 inches. POPs lower slightly across the lowlands on Thursday favoring a brief stint of lake enhancement and upslope flow on the heels of the Wednesday system. Once again, timing uncertainties in the departure of the midweek system and the arrival of the late week system are spreading POPs widely across Thursday, but some stay of dry weather is expected during this time frame. Yet another clipper looks to sweep the Upper Midwest and Ohio Valley during the Thursday night/Friday time frame. The exact track of this system will determine what kind and how much precipitation we can squeeze out. At this time, ensembles are rather spread on their depictions of this track, but a more southern track would give us a better chance of seeing impactful winter weather. A more northern track would favor a rain/snow mix with the best snow in the ridges and north of I-80, similar to Wednesday. Temperatures in the extended period look to fluctuate some but with the trough advancing into the region, generally trend down as we head towards the weekend. Differing depictions of the depth of the trough as it moves overhead lead to a wide spread in temperatures for next weekend but ensembles that favor a deeper trough feature another shot of very cold air. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Prevailing MVFR ceilings are ongoing and expected to continue through tonight. Light snow will impact primarily the northern part of our area and with highest confidence at FKL/DUJ. Confidence in any snow (and associated worsening restrictions) drops the farther south you go. With probabilities of any precipitation only ~20% at ZZV and MGW, no snow was noted at those locations for now. Elsewhere, a mix of PROB30s to the south (lower confidence) and TEMPOs to the north (higher confidence) have been maintained to reflect estimated onset/end times and reductions to visibility. Snow tapers overnight as a weak cold front moves through and light west winds shift to more northwesterly or northerly under building high pressure. MVFR ceilings will continue following the frontal passage with indication that a brief period of IFR could be possible within the post-frontal cold advection regime. Have trended ceilings a bit more pessimistic but haven't locked in prevailing IFR with this update as guidance continues to bounce around and the majority of upstream observations are hanging on to low MVFR conditions. Expect that VFR will gradually work its way back in as drier air intrudes in the latter half of the overnight hours. Wind will hold out of the northeast into the day on Monday with dry conditions. Outlook... The overall weather pattern through the week strongly favors shortwave movement within upper troughing that brings precipitation and restriction potential to the area generally every other day. Precipitation chances remain largely in the form of snow, save for short periods of rain at southern terminals during daytime hours. Wind looks to increase on Tuesday and especially Wednesday with passing low pressure. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. OH...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MLB/AK NEAR TERM...MLB/Milcarek SHORT TERM...88/AK LONG TERM...88/AK AVIATION...MLB ####018002875#### FXUS64 KSJT 072318 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 518 PM CST Sun Dec 7 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Warmer Tuesday through Thursday, then colder Friday into the weekend following a cold front. - Dry through next weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Monday) Issued at 1206 PM CST Sun Dec 7 2025 A cold front has made its way through the area today, resulting in cooler temperatures today than yesterday and northerly winds at 10 to 20 mph. There are still some lingering low clouds in the San Saba County area, but these will clear out before sunset, leaving mainly clear skies through tomorrow. Lows tonight with clear skies and light winds encouraging radiational cooling will drop down to around freezing across the entire area. For Monday, with sunny skies, temperatures will warm into the upper 50s to mid 60s again. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through next Saturday) Issued at 1206 PM CST Sun Dec 7 2025 Above normal temperatures are forecast Tuesday through Thursday, with the next strong cold front moving through West Central Texas late Thursday. Highs on Tuesday will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s, with overnight lows generally in the 40s. A weak cold front will track south across the are early Wednesday. This will result in slightly cooler temperatures, mainly across the Big Country where highs will be in the upper 60s. Elsewhere, highs will be in the low to mid 70s. A warm day is in store on Thursday ahead of the next approaching cold front. Highs will be in the mid 70s to lower 80s for most locations. The aforementioned stronger cold front will track south across the area Late Thursday. This will result in cooler temperatures Friday into the weekend. Highs will generally be in the 50s to lower 60s, with overnight lows upper 20s to mid 30s. The coldest temperatures are forecast Saturday morning, where a widespread freeze is forecast. Lows will be in the mid 20s to lower 30s. No rain is forecast through the next 7 days. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 517 PM CST Sun Dec 7 2025 VFR conditions and light winds will continue across West Central Texas terminals through Monday afternoon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 32 63 41 70 / 0 0 0 0 San Angelo 33 65 36 68 / 0 0 0 0 Junction 31 66 34 70 / 0 0 0 0 Brownwood 29 60 33 68 / 0 0 0 0 Sweetwater 34 63 41 70 / 0 0 0 0 Ozona 34 64 36 66 / 0 0 0 0 Brady 32 61 36 68 / 0 0 0 0 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...20 LONG TERM....Daniels AVIATION...07 ####018007048#### FXUS64 KHGX 072318 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 518 PM CST Sun Dec 7 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Cold front moving through the area today ushering in chillier weather to start the work week. - Hazardous marine conditions with winds of 20-25 kt with gusts to 30-35 kt expected this afternoon into Monday morning. - Windy conditions along the coast later this afternoon into Monday morning behind the front leading to the issuance of a Wind Advisory. - Warmer temperatures return by midweek, but we continue to monitor the potential for another cold front towards the end of the work week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1234 PM CST Sun Dec 7 2025 When I asked for a white Christmas...fog isn't what I had in mind! Before y'all say anything, yes I know it's only December 7th, but Christmas is a season so it counts! Widespread dense fog blanketed Southeast TX this morning thanks to the return of plentiful low level moisture through onshore flow. This onshore flow combined with compressional heating ahead of an approaching cold front will lead to high temperatures today topping out in the upper 60s to mid 70s. 850mb temperatures will reach near the 90th percentile this afternoon mainly for areas south of I-10. That'll be combined with light southwesterly winds ahead of the front, which will lead those high temperatures being 5-8 degrees above normal (mid 70s). So, this will be our warmest day since Thanksgiving weekend. That's just about as much suspense as I can build before talking about today's cold front, which has already begun to push through portions of the Brazos Valley and the Piney Woods. We can expect the cold front to be off the coast later this afternoon (let's say by 5-6pm), but we shouldn't expect to see any rain along the frontal boundary. You'll know when the front has pushed through by both the increasing northerly winds and the clearing of cloud cover. Those northerly winds will be howling overnight especially along the coast. As a result, a Wind Advisory will go into effect this evening for the barrier islands from 6pm Sunday through 6am Monday. With wind gusts in the 30-35+ mph range overnight into early Monday morning, please be sure to secure any outdoor holiday decorations...it's a little early for Santa to take flight. Now let's talk about exactly how cold we'll get behind this front! Some clouds will still linger especially east of I-45 tonight along with those breezy northerly winds, so we'll only see low temperatures in the upper 30s to mid 40s. Northerly winds stick around into Monday as drier air continues to filter in. Expect skies to become clear by the afternoon and winds becoming light after sunset. Clear skies + light winds + dry air (dew points in the 30s) = max radiational cooling. So, Monday night will be the coldest night behind this front with low temperatures ranging from the low 30s to low 40s. Some portions of the Piney Woods may see a brief, light freeze. This will be the perfect opportunity to break out your favorite striped sweater (but the real ones know that the best time to wear one is all the time). So, we're warm today and chilly early next week...what's next?! Well, we'll be back into the mid 70s by Wednesday with some areas approaching the 80°F mark on Thursday as onshore flow/WAA returns on Tuesday. On Thursday, we'll have southwesterly winds combined with 850mb temperatures around or exceeding the 90th percentile, so I bumped up temperatures just a bit. That warming trend miiiight come to an end at the end of the work week with yet another cold front. Wait...so over the span of just over a week we're going from cold to warm to cold to warm and maybe back to cold again...snip snap, snip snap, snip snap! You have no idea the physical toll all of these temperature swings have on a person! The end of the work week cold front still remains a bit uncertain. Looking through ensemble guidance (both GEFS and ECMWF), there is quite the spread in temperatures. Some ensemble members say we'll have low temperatures in the 30s/40s while other members say we'll be in the 60s. The count of members that show below normal temperatures do outnumber those that show above normal temperatures at the end of the week, but it's not entirely a slam dunk one way or the other at the moment. Even the spread between the upper and lower quartiles for temperatures in the latest deterministic NBM run still spans 15-20+ degrees! A large interquartile range is indicative of a wide range in model output, which is just a fancy way of saying that uncertainty remains. Batiste && .AVIATION... (00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 511 PM CST Sun Dec 7 2025 The dry cold front is approaching the coast and several sites of our inland sites already reporting NW winds of around 15KT and gusts of 20-25KT along with MVFR cigs. These conditions are expected to continue to across SE TX through the overnight hours. Winds will gradually relax and cigs begin to lift early Mon, near the 09Z timeframe. Mostly clear skies and N winds at around 10KT are expected by Mon afternoon. VFR conditions continue into Mon night. Cotto && .MARINE... Issued at 1234 PM CST Sun Dec 7 2025 Lingering cloud cover and decreased visibilities will stick around through at least the mid afternoon hours. Light onshore flow will also continue until a cold front pushes offshore later this afternoon. This will bring an end to any lingering fog/mist as drier air ushers in. Moderate to strong northerly winds will prevail in the wake of the front through Monday morning leading to the issuance of a Small Craft Advisory for the bays and the Gulf waters. Sustained winds will be in the 20-25 kt range with gusts up to 30-35 kt alongside rough bay waters and 6-9 ft seas. Occasional gusts to gale force will be possible in the offshore Gulf waters. These elevated offshore winds may lead to abnormally low water levels during the low tide cycle on Monday. Winds and seas gradually subside on Monday with the wind direction becoming easterly by Tuesday morning and southeasterly by Tuesday afternoon. This may result in fog development around midweek. Batiste && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 38 58 35 65 / 0 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 44 61 40 65 / 0 0 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 50 60 51 63 / 0 0 0 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Wind Advisory until 6 AM CST Monday for TXZ436>439. GM...Small Craft Advisory until noon CST Monday for GMZ330-335-350- 355-370-375. && $$ DISCUSSION...Batiste AVIATION...Cotto MARINE...Batiste ####018006685#### FXUS63 KDVN 072319 AFDDVN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 519 PM CST Sun Dec 7 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - A weak upper level disturbance will bring flurries and possibly patchy light snow late tonight into Monday morning. - An active weather pattern will be seen this week with several systems passing near or over the area. Each system has the potential to bring some precipitation to the area. - Another surge of arctic cold will settle into the Midwest for the end of the week and weekend. This arctic cold is be monitored for any potential cold headlines. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 224 PM CST Sun Dec 7 2025 Clouds will be on the increase late this afternoon and overnight as return flow aloft develops. The combination of weak lift and returning moisture will allow saturation aloft to occur resulting in flurries developing. The flurries will overspread the area after midnight and exit the area Monday morning. Clouds will begin breaking up late Monday morning but a partly to mostly cloudy sky is expected ahead of the next system.&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 224 PM CST Sun Dec 7 2025 Monday night/Tuesday Assessment...high to very high (80-90%) confidence of a clipper system side-swiping parts of the area The first of many systems races from the northern Plains and into the Great Lakes Monday night into Tuesday morning. Based on the track being well north of the area, the better forcing and moisture will move from Minnesota into Wisconsin. The forecasted water equivalent remain under 0.02 inches. Thus flurries or possibly a brief period of light snow is possible east of a Dubuque, IA to Princeton, IL line. If the light snow scenario is realized, accumulations would only be a dusting. Breaks developing in the clouds combined with southerly flow will help boost temperatures above normal for Tuesday. Tuesday night/Wednesday Assessment...high to very high (80-90%) confidence of a second clipper system impacting the area Right on the heels of the first clipper system, another clipper system will move through the upper Midwest and into the Great Lakes Tuesday night into Wednesday. Like the previous system, the track is north of the area but further south. Unlike the first system, all models have this system stronger (985-990 mb center). Thus with this system being a tad further south, it will transport moisture into the area allowing light precipitation to occur across the area. With the initial warmer temperatures across the area, the precipitation will start out as rain with a potential rain/snow mix developing late Tuesday night in the Highway 20 corridor before ending Wednesday morning. Given the differences in the track of this system, the model consensus has expanded the coverage of precipitation to most of the area. Precipitation chances range from 15-50 percent south of an Manchester, IA to Galva, IL line. North and east of this line precipitation chances are 55 to 75 percent. The strength of this storm system means that windy conditions will develop late Tuesday night into Wednesday with gusts up to 35 mph possible. Wednesday night through Thursday night Assessment...medium (40-60%) confidence on light accumulating snow occurring All global models show a weak upper level disturbance moving through the area late Wednesday night into Thursday. The Boehmke rule is satisfied, thus the precipitation will be in the form of snow. In looking at the NBM 10-90th percentiles, the maximum water equivalent would be around 0.10 inches with a higher probability of it being less. With overnight temperatures expected to be in the teens, the snow has a higher probability of being the dry, fluffy type (i.e. rain/snow ratios greater than 12 to 1). In using the mean water equivalent of 0.03 inches, such a ratio would translate into just under an inch of accumulation for the likely max amount. Most areas would thus see a dusting of accumulation. There are timing differences between the models which translates into on 30-50 percent chances for snow. I fully expect the snow chances to slowly increase as the week progresses. The bulk of the snow looks to be during the day Thursday with snow beginning late Wednesday night and ending Thursday evening. Friday through Sunday Assessment...a certainty (>99% confidence) of another arctic surge into the Midwest The global models show another arctic surge into the Midwest for the end of the week and into the weekend. The trigger will be the passage of an arctic cold front either very late Thursday night or during the day on Friday. The strength of the arctic surge associated with the front raises a strong potential for flurries or snow showers along with wind gusts of at least 30 mph. Right now the model consensus has Friday dry but I suspect this will change as the week progresses. After the arctic front passes, well below normal temperatures will be seen Friday night through Sunday. The wind will be slow to diminish Friday night. The situation needs to be watched but the potential is there for cold headlines Friday night into Saturday and again Saturday night into Sunday. Of the two nights, the probability of a cold headline is higher for Friday night than it is for Saturday night. The Friday night through Sunday time frame will be mainly dry. However, there is a weak upper level disturbance that will move through the area Saturday night that could produce light snow or flurries. This far out the signal is quite weak but the model consensus is generating 15 percent chances for light snow. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/... Issued at 516 PM CST Sun Dec 7 2025 A cold, quiet, VFR night is expected tonight, with a gradual increase in mid and high clouds later this evening, continuing through Monday. While there could be a flake or two of snow, this should have no impact to aviation and the main impact tonight will be the cold weather itself as we'll be several degrees below zero at most sites tonight. Winds will shift around towards the south/southeast Monday morning, and increase to around 10 kts by afternoon. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...None. IL...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...08 LONG TERM...08 AVIATION...Ervin