####018007169#### FXUS63 KGRR 090845 AFDGRR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 345 AM EST Tue Dec 9 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Quick Round of Snow, Freezing Drizzle Possible This Morning - Another Round of Snow and Rain Tonight into Wednesday - Reinforcing short of Arctic Air and Snow Showers Fri-Sun && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 338 AM EST Tue Dec 9 2025 - Quick Round of Snow, Freezing Drizzle Possible This Morning A quick round of snow will move through this morning bringing around an inch of snow for most of the area with 2 to 5 inches north of Grand Haven with the highest amounts north of Muskegon. As snow tapers off freezing drizzle/light rain could develop between 8am- 1pm. This is due to moisture profile flirting with -8C temperatures. One factor that could help is dry air toward the surface with breezy winds. Soundings are not persistent in keeping the low levels saturated, however the NAM is more aggressive. If freezing drizzle/light rain develops it will be along and south of the I-96 corridor and bring with it a light glaze of ice creating slick conditions. - Another Round of Snow and Rain Tonight into Wednesday A brief break in wintry weather is expected this afternoon but it will be short lived as another clipper system swings through the region tonight into Wednesday. This low will be stronger as seen in the 250mb upper level divergence and warming temperatures along with strong warm air advection near the surface with the low level jet. Positive vorticity advection moves in around 10pm along with the better moisture. Precipitation is expected to start out as snow, but strong warm air advection on the south side of the low is expected to transition the snow to rain. We'll need to monitor surface temperatures to see if a brief period of freezing rain will occur. How far north the rain spreads will depend on the overall low track. Additionally the track will also impact snowfall amounts. A slight shift of 50 miles can make a huge difference in this set up. At this time there is higher confidence in snowfall amounts of 4 inches or more along and north of the M-20 corridor with probabilities in the 60 to 90 percent range. Therefore have issued a Winter Weather Advisory from Oceana to Isabella County and northward for tonight into Wednesday afternoon. The 25th to 75th percentile highlight amounts of 3 to 7 inches in this area. If the low tracks further south the advisory may need to be extended southward. Any rain is expected to transition back to snow Wednesday morning with snow showers continuing into the afternoon. Winds will be quite breezy with this system with gusts from the southwest around 30 mph expanding from south to north overnight into Wednesday morning then shifting to the northwest behind the low late Wednesday morning into the afternoon. This will aid in reducing visibilities with the snowfall. The northwest flow off of the lake will also keep some snow shower in the area Wednesday afternoon and night, however moisture is limited so not expected much in the way of additional accumulations. - Reinforcing short of Arctic Air and Snow Showers Fri-Sun The coldest air of the season so far is showing up in some of the ensemble guidance over the weekend as another reinforcing clipper system may impact Michigan by Friday, bringing 850mb temperatures behind it into the -15C to -20C range Saturday and Sunday. This would yield high temperatures mainly in the teens to around 20F away from the lake. Upper low formation around or just north of Lake Superior is a possibility, with some vort maxes pivoting over the region which would help with synoptic lift and lake enhanced snowfall to areas along and west of US 131. This snow will likely be quite powdery and finer grain. Almost all ECE ensemble members show accumulating snow for the lakeshore region this weekend. There are a few interesting takeaways from a global teleconnections standpoint this month. The weak La Nina pattern continues, and the Madden Julian Oscillation just moved out of a strong Phase 7 and decent strength Phase 8, which correlate to colder than normal temperatures across the northern U.S. Additionally, as we ended November and moved into December, a sudden stratospheric warming event occurred which is most easily tracked via a weakening and reversal of winds at 10mb across 60N latitude. The winds did not really reverse as they do during major SSW events, but still this had the effect of weakening the polar vortex and shifting it off the pole. While we haven't gotten the full brunt of the polar vortex here in Michigan, it likely has played some sort of role in modifying the tropospheric weather pattern across our broader region. All this to say is that one of the coldest starts to December on record (top 10 for all climate sites through the first week) is attributable to some of these factors. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1057 PM EST Mon Dec 8 2025 Recent surface obs indicate widespread VFR conditions across the terminals. However, radar over Wisconsin shows light snow moving east. Expect VFR to quickly fall to IFR once the light snow develops, first at MKG/GRR around 06z and then at LAN/JXN shortly after 12z. A few hours of FZDZ is possible mixed with light snow after 12z before the precipitation from west to east early afternoon. A few hours of LLWS is anticipated at the I-94 terminals this morning. Another round of snow and/or mixed rain/snow is expected after 00z tonight as the next system moves through. && .MARINE... Issued at 338 AM EST Tue Dec 9 2025 Gales will taper off after sunrise with Small Craft Advisory conditions continuing through the day. Strong southwest winds then move in tonight into Wednesday bringing another period of gales. Winds will shift to the northwest Wednesday afternoon as the strong low pressure system shifts east. Wave heights during this time are expected to be in the 7 to 12 foot range. Gales subside Wednesday evening with Small Craft Advisory conditions likely through at least Thursday. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for MIZ037- 043. Winter Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 4 PM EST Wednesday for MIZ037>040-043>046. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EST tonight for LMZ844>847. Gale Warning from midnight tonight to 7 PM EST Wednesday for LMZ844>847. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Wednesday for LMZ848. Gale Warning from 7 AM to 7 PM EST Wednesday for LMZ848-849. Gale Warning until 7 AM EST this morning for LMZ849. Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 7 AM EST Wednesday for LMZ849. && $$ DISCUSSION...Hoving/RAH AVIATION...04 MARINE...RAH ####018004444#### FXUS65 KVEF 090847 AFDVEF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Las Vegas NV 1248 AM PST Tue Dec 9 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... * Warmer than normal temperatures will continue through the week, with periods of breezy northerly winds down the Colorado River Valley today and again on Wednesday. && .DISCUSSION...through next Monday. Breezy northerly winds are expected again this afternoon in the Colorado River Valley, with 25 to 35 mph wind gusts anticipated between Laughlin/Bullhead City and Needles, and 1 to 2 foot waves on Lake Mohave. These northerly winds will linger into Wednesday before decreasing for the second half of the week and the weekend. Otherwise, warmer than normal temperatures along with dry conditions will persist through the end of the week as a ridge of high pressure builds over the Western US. Temperatures will gradually increase each day through mid-to-late week, with multiple high maximum and high minimum temperature records in jeopardy Wednesday through Friday. See the CLIMATE section for more information regarding records. By this weekend, the ridge will flatten as a shortwave moving through the mean flow passes across southern California, Arizona, and northern Mexico. While no precipitation is anticipated with this feature, an increase in high cloud cover is expected, which will also help lower temperatures several degrees. && .AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 06Z Forecast Package...Winds will remain under 10 knots and should follow typical diurnal directional trends. VFR conditions will persist throughout the TAF period. For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California...For the 06Z Forecast Package...With the exception of the Colorado River Valley, winds across the region will remain under 10 knots and follow typical daily directional trends. Winds in the Colorado River Valley will favor a general northerly direction through the TAF period, with gusts up to around 25 knots picking up in the morning and afternoon near KIFP. VFR conditions will continue through the TAF period with no operationally significant cloud cover expected. && .CLIMATE...Numerous climate locations across the region have a forecast high temperature and/or forecast warm low temperature within 3 degrees of the daily record Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday. The table below shows the daily record maximum temperature and the year the record was last set. An asterisk (*) denotes which records are in jeopardy (within 3 degrees of the forecast). A double asterisk (**) denotes which sites have forecast values that will tie or break the existing record. MAX WED, DEC 10 THU, DEC 11 FRI, DEC 12 Record(Yr) Record(Yr) Record(Yr) Las Vegas 74(1950) 72(1939)* 74(1958) Bishop 72(1958)* 78(1958) 74(1953) Needles 80(1934)* 78(1958)** 80(1958)* Daggett 77(2015) 79(1958) 83(1958) Kingman 75(1950) 77(1950) 72(1950)** Desert Rock 68(2015)** 68(2010)** 72(1988)* Death Valley 80(1911)* 81(1914)* 79(1924)** The table below shows the daily record warm minimum temperature and the year the record was last set. An asterisk (*) denotes which records are in jeopardy (within 3 degrees of the forecast). A double asterisk (**) denotes which sites have forecast values that will tie or break the existing record. WARM MIN WED, DEC 10 THU, DEC 11 FRI, DEC 12 Record(Yr) Record(Yr) Record(Yr) Las Vegas 52(1996) 50(2014)** 51(1995)** Bishop 35(1984) 36(2016) 44(1956) Needles 56(2017) 54(2014) 59(1995) Daggett 50(1981) 53(2016) 51(1995) Kingman 47(1937) 47(1981) 51(1934) Desert Rock 51(1996) 47(1996)* 53(1995) Death Valley 56(1970)** 58(1914)* 60(1914) && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures. && $$ DISCUSSION/CLIMATE...Planz AVIATION...Meltzer For more forecast information...see us on our webpage: https://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter ####018007859#### FXUS61 KRLX 090848 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 348 AM EST Tue Dec 9 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Drier weather today with winds strengthening this evening. A cold front brings more wintry weather to the mountains on Wednesday with accumulating and blowing snow expected. Another front crosses Friday with more snow and a deep freeze expected. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 205 AM Tuesday... Snow showers are largely tapering off this morning as surface high pressure nudges in from the west. Frigid temperatures have been left in the wake of the exiting storm with lows in the teens and low 20s expected across the forecast area this morning. Black ice formation is likely from refreezing of any water/melted snow, so surfaces will be slick. Issued statements across most of the area until 6 AM highlighting hazardous road conditions from black ice and any additional light snow accumulations from the past few hours. Caution should be exercised when traveling this morning. Otherwise, drier weather is expected today, but gloomy stratocumulus will continue to blanket most of the area this morning. A warm front is supposed to cross the area today allowing for low ceilings to break up and scatter while also warming temperatures some. Highs will be in the upper 30s and lower 40s across the lowlands, with the mountains remaining in the upper 20s and 30s. If the warm front is delayed then low clouds and colder temperatures will persist into the afternoon. Southwesterly winds will be picking up this afternoon and evening as a system approaches from the northwest. Wind gusts between 15 and 30 mph could be possible across the higher elevations of the mountains later this evening as a pressure gradient aloft tightens ahead of an approaching cold front. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 330 AM Tuesday... A bit of a complex scenario sets up in the short term as a cold front is projected to cross the area Wednesday. This front looks to bring mostly rain to the area, but the higher elevations of the northeastern WV mountains will be cold enough to see accumulating snow during the day Wednesday. Current Hi-Res models and the NAM are starting to side with amounts between 4 and 8 inches across the higher ridges of Pocahontas, Randolph, and Webster Counties. Southwest winds will also be gusty on Wednesday, with gusts up to 50 mph possible across the higher elevations of the mountains. This could lead to blowing and drifting snow. That said, issued a Winter Storm Watch for the aforementioned counties from Wednesday morning until Thursday afternoon. The need for a Winter Storm Warning and additional headlines elsewhere will be re-examined today. Confidence is however increasing for over 6 inches of snowfall and blowing snow that reduces visibilities across the higher elevations. Temperatures will be on the mild side for most locations on Wednesday. The lowlands and portions of the mountains will be in the 40s, while the northeastern mountains will stay locked into the 30s with strong cold air advection moving in. Rain in the lowlands will eventually switch over to all snow Wednesday night into Thursday with the typical post-frontal temperature crash and flash freeze. Light snowfall amounts of 1-2" will be possible in the foothills and southern mountains with lesser amounts west. High temperatures on Thursday will be colder. The lowlands will remain in the low to mid 30s, with the mountains ranging between the upper teens and upper 20s. Chances for snow showers across the area Thursday and Thursday night with light accumulations possible. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 345 AM Tuesday... Active and frigid weather will be a staple for the long term period. A series of disturbances take aim at our area sustaining rain and snow chances Friday, Saturday, and Sunday. Models do not entirely agree on timing and placement, so there is less confidence with these systems and amounts of snow expected. A notable change with this update will be the temperatures, particularly Saturday's highs. Current guidance brings the lowlands into the mid to upper 30s, compared to previous runs which kept the area in the 20s. There is noticeably warmer air aloft on soundings for Saturday with less -20C temperatures being shown. Still the potential for frigid and bitter temperatures remains, especially Sunday into Monday with lows in the teens and single digits being projected. Dangerous wind chills across the mountains could warrant some wind chill headlines Sunday night into Monday morning. && .AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 135 AM Tuesday... A menagerie of flight conditions expected this morning. Snow showers across the mountains continue to taper off. VFR is in abundance across the lowlands, but broken and overcast skies still remain and will gradually lower to MVFR by ~10-12z. The mountains will remain MVFR or lower. BKW is seeing LIFR in low ceilings and will remain so this morning. CRW and EKN, and maybe CKB will eventually see MVFR or lower with low stratus. There is the potential for patchy freezing fog at these sites later this morning with low ceilings and low- level moisture at the surface. PKB will likely remain VFR through the morning MVFR/IFR Stratocumulus continues through the morning at most sites except maybe PKB where VFR will likely remain. Ceilings rapidly break up and scatter after ~18z as a warm front slides through. Winds will be light to mostly calm until ~12z. Winds will be light and SSW'rly after ~12z, but will be increasing by ~18z with gusts between 10 and 20 knots in the afternoon. Expecting gusty winds Tuesday night, especially across the mountains. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and location of snow showers ending and low ceilings forming may vary from forecast. If warm front does not lift through the area today, then MVFR ceilings may persist into the afternoon. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE TUE 12/09/25 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EST 1HRLY 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H M M M M M L H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY M H H H M M M M L H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H L H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY M M H H H H M H H M M H AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY... IFR conditions are possible area-wide Wednesday night through Thursday in a rain to rain/snow mix, and then in mainly snow by Friday. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...Winter Storm Watch from Wednesday morning through Thursday afternoon for WVZ522-523-526. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LTC NEAR TERM...LTC SHORT TERM...LTC LONG TERM...LTC AVIATION...LTC ####018003225#### FXUS64 KJAN 090848 AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson MS 248 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 ...New DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Chilly conditions continue early this week with perhaps some fog potential tonight. - Dry and milder conditions are most likely as we go through mid to late week and into the weekend. - Colder weather may return by Sunday into early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 242 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 Today and tonight...Surface high pressure ridging will prevail over the area today, but will weaken across the area tonight. The surface high will shift east of the area and this will allow the flow to become more southerly this afternoon. Skies will clear this afternoon and temperatures will be a little warmer, with highs mostly in the 50s. Skies will remain clear overnight, with warmer lows ranging from the mid 30s in the east to around 40 in the west./15/ Overall, the prevailing upper-level pattern through the long term period looks to be rather subdued. Broad troughing over central CONUS this weekend, accompanied by multiple embedded shortwaves, will maintain lingering rain chances around the southern portions of the CWA, where a quasi-stationary boundary will remain just offshore of the Gulf Coast. Expect to see low to moderate rain chances at times, with temperatures generally in the 40s and 50s through this weekend. By early next week, the pattern will be more progressive as troughing shifts eastward and northwesterly flow aloft ushers in a cooler airmass behind a cold front. High pressure looks to build into the area by early-midweek, supporting a notable drop in temperatures. Lows Monday night may fall into the mid-20s areawide. Additionally, another cold front late in the period may bring additional rain chances toward the end of the forecast window. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 529 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025 Low stratus is trying to erode across the region this evening, but it's currently struggling and thus looks to plague area TAF sites overnight into Tuesday morning. This, along with the potential for some patchy fog, mainly south of Interstate 20, will yield MVFR/IFR flight categories at TAF sites though at least late morning Tuesday. Stratus is currently forecast to gradually erode through late morning, with a return to VFR categories expected by midday. Winds overnight will be calm to light with an increasing easterly component. These will gradually become more southerly into Tuesday afternoon between 3-8 knots. /19/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 55 40 63 36 / 0 0 0 0 Meridian 55 36 64 34 / 0 0 0 0 Vicksburg 54 40 63 36 / 0 0 0 0 Hattiesburg 59 37 68 39 / 0 0 0 0 Natchez 56 40 65 38 / 0 0 0 0 Greenville 50 41 59 35 / 0 0 0 0 Greenwood 52 40 61 34 / 0 0 0 0 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...None. LA...None. AR...None. && $$ 15/