####018004822#### FXUS64 KCRP 101805 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 105 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 258 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Key Messages: ▶ Cold front to move across the region today ▶ Low chance for showers and storms through Saturday A cold front is sagging southward and is approaching our CWA this morning. It is expected to slowly drift south towards the coast this afternoon/evening where it is likely to stall over our southern CWA. Expecting a wind shift to the northeast ahead of the actual front with weak to moderate winds. Cooler and drier conditions expected behind the front with afternoon highs today climbing into the mid 80s to 90s. PWAT's from the latest sounding are reflecting values just below normal and have silent PoP's in the forecast today. Lows tonight will be in the low to mid 70s accompanied by a low (20%) chance for showers and thunderstorms across the Rio Grande Plains. A few mid-level disturbances from a low anchored over the Four Corners, will increase storm chances for Saturday with a low 15-25% chance across most of the region. Saturday has the coolest highs of the week ranging in the 80s. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through next Thursday) Issued at 258 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Key Messages: ▶ Low to moderate chance for showers and storms through Monday ▶ Warming trend kicks in on Sunday. Minor to moderate risk of heat related impacts daily. The long term opens up with a warm front lifting north across the region. PWATs will trend up south of the boundary as a ~20 knots LLJ ushers deep moisture inland. Meanwhile, an upper low across the Desert Southwest will begin to lift across the Southern Plains while sending another weak front our way. Several shortwaves look to eject out ahead of the low Sunday through Monday. This will help drive convection as we head into the work week. We currently have a low to moderate (20-50%) chance for showers and thunderstorms both Sunday and Monday. Our greatest chances will be confined to the Victoria Crossroads as the greatest forcing will pass north of the region. We begin to dry out Monday evening as weak ridging builds in from the west. Low end PoPs return by mid week as another disturbance nears the region. By the time Sunday gets here, our warming trend will be well underway. High temperatures will rebound into the upper 80s along the coast to near 100 across the Brush Country. Heat indices bounce back into the 100-109 range through the week leading to a moderate heat risk for much of South Texas. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1240 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024 The slow moving cold front that has been fizzling, still has enough energy to help produce clouds over most of south Texas. While the drier air is expected to filter into the region, the moisture will continue for another night, except VCT which looks like it has gotten into the drier air, and should remain VFR through the next 24 hours. All of the other TAF sites will remain VFR to MVFR and back, with ALI and CRP running a risk (15-25%) of IFR CIGs as the moisture remains. Otherwise there is a 30% chance of showers and thunderstorms at ALI and CRP with the proximity of the moisture and the weakening boundary. && .MARINE... Issued at 258 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Overall a weak to moderate northeasterly flow is expected today in response to a frontal boundary. Flow is expected to persist through Saturday before veering more easterly. Patchy fog and haze will continue to impact the waters ahead of the boundary. There is a 15-25% chance for showers and thunderstorms Saturday and Saturday night A weak to moderate southeasterly flow will resume Saturday night and continue through the work week. There is a 20-50% chance of showers and thunderstorms both Sunday and Monday. Drier conditions are in store by Tuesday. Low end rain chances return by mid week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 75 85 75 89 / 30 10 20 30 Victoria 70 86 72 86 / 10 10 20 50 Laredo 75 90 76 96 / 20 20 30 10 Alice 73 86 74 92 / 30 20 20 30 Rockport 75 85 76 85 / 10 10 10 30 Cotulla 75 87 75 93 / 20 20 30 20 Kingsville 74 85 75 90 / 30 20 20 30 Navy Corpus 78 85 77 87 / 30 20 20 30 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...BF LONG TERM....TC AVIATION...JSL/86 ####018006875#### FXUS66 KMTR 101808 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 1108 AM PDT Fri May 10 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 0105 AM PDT Fri May 10 2024 A moderate HeatRisk will exist for the warmest inland areas for today and Saturday as afternoon temperatures reach the 80s to around 90. Cooler along the coast with onshore breezes. A slight cooldown will occur by early next week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 915 AM PDT Fri May 10 2024 Stratus did approach the coast earlier this morning, but outside a patch along the Big Sur coast and one near the Golden Gate which has since largely mixed out, the coast remained clear through the night. High resolution models are indicating some chance for convective showers this afternoon for extreme southeastern Monterey County and southern San Benito County near Santa Rita Peak, which was added into the forecast. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track with no changes at this time. DialH && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 0105 AM PDT Fri May 10 2024 The large-scale pattern features high pressure aloft from the northeast Pacific through the Pacific Northwest, with a weak cutoff low over the Great Basin. Surface high pressure will remain prominent across much of the west, with weak coastal troughing along CA. 925 mb winds will maintain a north/northeast component today providing a continuation of warm/low humidity conditions for inland areas and the hills. However surface winds along the coast will develop a more onshore (west/southwest) component through the day. This will keep coastal temperatures more moderated, while still relatively mild. A very shallow marine layer under 300 feet is noted via the Fort Ord profiler this morning and this layer may deepen slightly across southern portions of the coast today. The most likely forecast outcome suggests that stratus/fog development should remain relatively limited in this pattern, but wouldn't be surprised to see at least some patchy areas around the coast and bays this morning. Elsewhere, there remains a little bit of mid- level moisture and elevated instability such that we can't rule of the development of a shower or two over the inland mountains of southeast Monterey and San Benito Counties. The most likely forecast outcome is probably just some cumulus development, but it's worth noting that a few of the high resolution models and HREF ensemble members show some simulated reflectivity returns over these areas this afternoon. For now just something to watch. Otherwise today's main forecast concern is temperatures. And our warmer inland areas will certainly be heating up. Probabilistic forecasts indicate a high (70%+) probability for high temperatures to reach 80 degrees or warmer for almost all areas, sans the coast and coastal marine-influenced valleys. Typically warmer places such as the Santa Clara Valley, southern Salinas Valley, and the North/East Bay valleys will see temperatures well into the 80s, with the warmest spots eclipsing the 90 degree mark. Locations with a 50% or greater probability for reaching 90 degrees today include the Sonoma Valley, Santa Rosa area, and portions of the East Bay bordering the Sacramento Valley. This will produce a moderate HeatRisk for these areas, with a minor risk elsewhere. There will be some overnight relief however, as temperatures tonight dip into the 50s for most areas, except for some lower 60s in the interior hills. Given the warm interior temperatures here's a reminder of some heat safety tips: * Stay hydrated and drink plenty of fluids. * Wear lightweight, light-colored clothing. * Reduce time spent outdoors or stay in the shade. * Never leave people or pets unattended in vehicles. * Use sunscreen if going to the coast or the pool. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 0105 AM PDT Fri May 10 2024 The upper ridge will remain prominent through Saturday, but will weaken into early week as weak troughing encompasses the Intermountain West. This will result in gradually cooling temperatures, albeit still above normal inland. A moderate HeatRisk will exist for the warmer areas on Saturday so it's still a good idea to practice heat safety. Otherwise high temperatures this week will generally be in the 80s inland, 70s within the marine- influenced valleys, and 60s on the beaches. Upper ridging looks to re-establish across portions of the west for late week bringing another possible warmup heading into next weekend. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1106 AM PDT Fri May 10 2024 VFR all terminals through early tonight. Compare to the previous few days winds are much lighter and less impactful for terminals this morning. Weather impacts through the taf period will be ongoing stratus moving up the Central and San Francisco Peninsula Coast. Highest confidence for cigs impacting the region Saturday morning will be MRY Bay terminals. Latest trends and guidance suggests stratus clouds may filter into SF Bay, but not make it to SFO or OAK. Vicinity of SFO...VFR. Light NE early before switching NW this afternoon. Will be watching the surge up the coast closely, but latest thinking is to keep solid cigs out of SFO. Did include a FEW group for a few hours early Saturday. Could even see a SCT group, but conf for cigs is less than 20%. SFO Bridge Approach...Less likely for any cigs impacting the approach. Monterey Bay Terminals...VRF through early tonight. As surge moves into MRY Bay cig chances increase through early tonight. Impacts with IFR/MVFR cigs will first impact KSNS 10-12Z and then KMRY. Moderate confidence (40-50%) of reduced vis for KSNS Saturday AM. Shallow nature of cigs will lead to early clearing. && .MARINE... (Today through Wednesday) Issued at 915 AM PDT Fri May 10 2024 A weak surface trough along the coast will maintain light to moderate winds over the waters through Saturday. Looking forward to next week, surface high pressure over the Eastern Pacific Ocean will build and move east, keeping things dry and strengthening northwesterly winds to a fresh breeze status. Significant wave heights will also begin building at the start of next week. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...SPM LONG TERM....SPM AVIATION...MM MARINE...MM Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea www.twitter.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea