####018003342#### FXUS63 KTOP 101729 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 1129 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - A windy day today as gusts up to 35 mph continue through early afternoon. Some areas in far northeast KS could see gusts up to 40- 45 mph through 9 AM this morning. - Temperatures rebound Thursday before another shot of cold air moves in by the weekend. Highs will struggle to get above the 30s, especially Sunday. - The forecast remains dry with any chance for precipitation staying north of the area. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 314 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2025 Mid-level water vapor imagery this morning shows a compact low tracking into the northern Midwest with northwesterly flow situated from the central Plains to the PNW. The passage of the aforementioned upper low has pushed a strong 991mb low towards Lake Michigan with a tight pressure gradient and surface trough extending west all the way into southeastern Kansas. A frontal boundary has made its way across the forecast area in northeast KS with gusty winds filtering in from the northwest through this morning. Expect windy conditions to exist across the area through the early afternoon with some areas across far northeastern KS gusting upwards to 40-45 mph. Temperatures this afternoon should get to near-normal values as mostly sunny skies and afternoon mixing warms the area into the mid 40s; warmer southwest and cooler towards northeast KS. Clouds begin to increase by this evening as some remnant mid-level vorticity advects into Nebraska behind the main shortwave. Could see some sprinkles/flurries across far northern KS, but chances remain below 10% at this time with better precipitation chances staying north. Low-level flow returns to the south by Thursday helping to provide a brief warm up into the 50s by the afternoon with some across central KS seeing some 60s! The warmth does not last long as the next lobe of vorticity embedded in the northwesterly flow ejects off the WY rockies Thursday night and brings air from Canada into KS for the weekend. Although any precipitation chances remain north across Iowa and Nebraska, expect high temperatures Friday and Saturday in the upper 30s and low 40s. By Sunday morning, the arctic 1040mb canadian high pushes into Iowa and plummets temperatures into the low teens and upper single digits. Temperatures will rebound a bit Sunday as highs top out in the low to mid 20s in far northeast KS and upper 20s and low 30s closer to central KS. Luckily, temperatures rebound back into the upper 40s and 50s by early next week as WAA returns as the arctic air pushes towards the East Coast. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1126 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2026 A few stratocumulus may develop this afternoon around the TAF sites. The gusty winds of 25 to 35 KTS will subside through the day and gusts should diminish after 19Z. Tonight mid level clouds will increase, with OVC skies with ceilings above 9000 feet. Northwest winds will become light and variable Tonight. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Griesemer AVIATION...Gargan ####018007811#### FXUS62 KFFC 101730 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 1230 PM EST Wed Dec 10 2025 ...New 18Z Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1224 PM EST Wed Dec 10 2025 - Areas of dense fog will occur through 10 AM this morning, especially in low lying areas. - Significant rainfall is not anticipated in the region through at least the middle of next week. - Gusty winds will occur this afternoon, peak gusts in the 20 to 35 mph range are expected. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Thursday) Issued at 147 AM EST Wed Dec 10 2025 Forecast Considerations through Thursday: Through 10 AM today the main forecast challenge revolves around the potential for fog in central Georgia. Fair skies and light winds in the region have led to strong radiational cooling and areas of ground fog development since 11 PM Tuesday. Satellite shows that the fog is most concentrated along the river valleys, but it is showing up in other locations as well (per observations). Confidence in the continuation of fog through around 9 AM is moderate, with the main limiting factor being the thick deck of high clouds moving in from the northwest. This cloud layer should hinder the radiational cooling once it arrives and this may pause or erode the ground fog. At this time a Dense Fog Advisory for central Georgia is unlikely (33% chance) due to the increasing cloud potential and shallow nature of the fog. None the less, travelers should use caution this morning, as low lying areas may see rapid reductions in visibility. Gusty westerly winds will develop today ahead of and approaching cold front. Progged winds of 35 to 50 kt in the 850 mb layer this afternoon should favor gusts in the 20 to 35 mph range at the surface, and it wouldn't be surprising to see a couple of gusts over 35 mph at the more exposed sites (like ATL). Because gusts near or in excess of 35 mph should be limited in scope a Wind Advisory is not planned for today (20% chance of issuance). The winds should turn northwesterly overnight as the cold front passes, and the winds may remain elevated (especially in north Georgia) through the overnight hours. Temperatures should surge into the upper 50s (north Georgia) and lower 60s (central Georgia) today. A cooler continental airmass will move into the region tonight. This will bring high temperatures down by about 10 degrees on Thursday. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 147 AM EST Wed Dec 10 2025 As the extended period begins on Thursday night, longwave troughing will extend from southeast Canada southward along the Eastern Seaboard. This troughing will advance slowly eastward into the weekend, keeping northwesterly upper level flow in place across the majority of the CONUS. Surface high pressure will also be positioned over central Georgia and slowly moving east. With a dry airmass over the area, combined with mostly clear skies and light winds, strong radiational cooling can be expected through the overnight hours. After Friday morning begins with low temperatures ranging from the upper 20s in the far northeast mountains to the mid 30s in central Georgia, the center of the surface high will move east of the state during the daytime. Southwesterly low level flow on the back side of the high will allow for gradual moisture return, with dewpoints climbing from the 20s and low 30s to near 40 by Friday night. High temperatures will also be on the rise under the high and with warm advection from the Gulf, rising to the mid 50s to low 60s in north Georgia and mid 60s in central Georgia on Friday afternoon. Also on Friday, a surface low will movE across the Great Lakes region, with a cold front extending from the low pushing into the Tennessee Valley region by Friday night. A quick-hitting disturbance will move southeastward through the jet as the front approaches far north Georgia. Global model guidance indicates that increased moisture ahead of this front could advance into north Georgia though overall it appears that forcing associated with this disturbance appears that will be weak. A few isolated showers could be possible amid the increasing low level moisture if there is a sufficient mass response. As a result, rain chances late Friday night through Saturday will largely range from 5-15% across much of north and west Georgia, though most areas will remain dry. High temperatures on Saturday will range from the upper 50s in far north Georgia to near 70 in east-central Georgia. There remains ample uncertainty in the forecast beginning on Sunday, especially as it pertains to the progression of the cold front and a strong Arctic surface high approaching from the northwest. With the timing of the frontal passage trending slower, PoPs of 20-30%, are forecast in north and west Georgia late Saturday night into Sunday morning. Rain chances are then forecast to diminish with the front weakening as it moves south and east into central Georgia. Rainfall amounts ahead of the front appear to be negligible - at most about 0.10 inch in the far northern tier with even lesser amounts to the south. There is the potential for significantly colder air to set up behind the front starting Sunday night into Monday, though the extent of how much temperatures drop will depend on the movement of the high's center and the proximity of north/central Georgia to the core of the coldest air. Thus, there remains a significant spread among ensemble temperature guidance. Latest long range model guidance is favoring a further southeastward detour of the high's center, through the Ohio Valley early Monday and towards the Carolina coast by early Tuesday, which would favor a greater drop in temperatures by Monday morning into Tuesday. However, guidance also continues to indicate the weakening of the high as it moves southeast, which would serve to moderate the airmass as it sets up over the region. However, with little run to run consistency on the position of the low, it's tough to feel confident how much cooling we'll see early next week, and the evolution and track of this Arctic high will need to be monitored. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1224 PM EST Wed Dec 10 2025 Primarily VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. A band of clouds will accompany a cold front this evening with a brief window for intermittent MVFR cigs 2500-3000 ft at ATL sites 23-02Z. Otherwise, only mid/high cigs are expected. SW winds will trend to NW by 00Z with speeds 12-16 kts and gusts as high as 25-28 kts with a gradual waning in speeds/gusts after 06Z. //ATL Confidence...18Z Update... Medium confidence in patchy MVFR cig possibility. High confidence on other elements. RW && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 56 32 48 30 / 0 0 0 0 Atlanta 57 32 47 33 / 0 0 0 0 Blairsville 51 25 40 26 / 10 20 0 0 Cartersville 58 29 47 30 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 60 35 53 33 / 0 0 0 0 Gainesville 56 32 47 31 / 0 0 0 0 Macon 60 35 52 30 / 0 0 0 0 Rome 60 32 50 32 / 0 0 0 0 Peachtree City 58 32 49 30 / 0 0 0 0 Vidalia 60 38 54 33 / 0 0 0 0 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Albright LONG TERM....King AVIATION...RW ####018003579#### FXUS64 KLZK 101729 AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 1129 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1132 PM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 - Gusty NW winds will be seen behind a cold front as it moves across the state today. - Near to above normal temperatures will be seen through Friday along with dry conditions. - A strong cold front will usher in much colder temperatures from Saturday to Sunday. - Cold air will linger for a few days before increasing by Tue/Wed next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1132 PM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 Sfc pressure gradient has continued to increase across the area as a strong sfc cyclone moves east toward the Great Lakes while ridging remains across the SE US. This has provided an increase in SW winds across the state late Tuesday into the overnight hours. As the sfc low continues to track to the east a trailing cold front will move across Arkansas from NW to SE today. In its wake, winds will switch out of the NW and will increase to 15-20 mph with gusts around 30 mph. The strongest winds associated with this are expected across the northern half of the state during the morning hours Wednesday. This front will provide little in the way of cold air Wednesday but will help temperatures fall to near freezing Wednesday night. The mid-level flow aloft will remain out of the NW through the end of the work week, but low level flow will be out of the SW. This will provide warmer temperatures Thu-Fri. Changes will take place this weekend, as another cold front will usher in a much colder airmass to the state. The cold air may not make it into the state until Saturday night. Behind the front, sfc ridging will overspread the state by Sunday and linger through Monday. But, this round of cold air isn't expected to stick around very long as sfc ridging shifts east and the H500 NW flow moves northeast away from the region. This will lead to increasing temperatures through the middle of next week. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1122 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2025 VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast cycle. Gusty west to northwest winds will persist behind a dry cold front through at least mid afternoon before gradually weakening the rest of the afternoon. Strongest winds will be across northern terminals with a few gust above 30 kts through mid afternoon tempering down to 20-25 kts through the remainder of the afternoon at northern terminal sites. LLWS expected to remain present through the afternoon hours. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 32 53 41 60 / 0 0 0 0 Camden AR 31 57 39 64 / 0 0 0 0 Harrison AR 31 57 43 54 / 0 0 0 0 Hot Springs AR 33 55 40 64 / 0 0 0 0 Little Rock AR 34 55 41 62 / 0 0 0 0 Monticello AR 34 56 43 65 / 0 0 0 0 Mount Ida AR 33 58 42 65 / 0 0 0 0 Mountain Home AR 30 55 40 56 / 0 0 0 0 Newport AR 33 52 40 60 / 0 0 0 0 Pine Bluff AR 32 56 40 63 / 0 0 0 0 Russellville AR 33 59 39 64 / 0 0 0 0 Searcy AR 31 53 37 62 / 0 0 0 0 Stuttgart AR 33 53 40 62 / 0 0 0 0 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...67 AVIATION...76 ####018003698#### FXUS64 KMEG 101730 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1130 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1130 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2025 - Gusty winds will continue through this evening. A short-lived Wind Advisory may be considered if sustained winds exceed 25 mph. - Much colder temperatures are forecast from Saturday night through Monday night. Monday morning will be the coldest as lows drop to the mid teens and low 20s. - Temperatures will warm up by the middle of next week, approaching near normal by Wednesday. && .DISCUSSION... (This afternoon through next Tuesday) Issued at 1130 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2025 A potent upper level low continues to churn over the Great Lakes region this morning, bringing Winter Storm conditions to portions of northern CONUS. A large-scale troughing pattern is in place with an embedded shortwave and attendant cold front trekking across Missouri. A dry frontal passage is anticipated for the Mid- South, with the greater impact being gusty winds. A few areas in northeast Arkansas and the Missouri Bootheel may experience sustained winds in excess of 25 mph this afternoon. A short-lived Wind Advisory may be considered later today if surface winds reach this criteria. Benign weather returns Thursday and will persist through the end of the work week. Frigid conditions are on tap for the weekend as an Arctic cold front pushes across the United States on Saturday. This boundary will reach the Mid-South by midday with ample CAA taking place overnight. Sunday morning lows will vary from north to south as this air continues to settle into the area. For areas near Kentucky, lows will be in the upper teens. Further south into Mississippi, temperatures will be in the upper 20s to low 30s. Minimal warming is anticipated Sunday with highs ranging from the mid 20s to upper 30s areawide. Monday morning will be the coldest as lows fall into the mid teens to low 20s. There is a 30 percent chance of temperatures falling below 15 degrees near the TN/KY border at this time. Take the time now to winterize your home by covering exposed pipes and caulking windows. Fortunately, the brutal cold will not last long as a shortwave pushes across the Plains on Monday. Southerly surface winds will bring increased temperatures and moisture with afternoon highs reaching the upper 30s to mid 40s. This warming trend will continue through midweek with rain chances returning on Tuesday. ANS && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1130 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2025 A dry cold front has passed, marking a gradual shift to northwesterly winds. The gradient behind the front remains tight and thus surface winds will stay elevated with gusts around 25 kts through at least 00Z this evening. This is the main impact of this period; ceilings are expected to remain well above VFR criteria. As the surface high slides over the airspace overnight, winds will quickly subside to light and variable early Thursday morning. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1130 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2025 Strong southwesterly winds will continue through most of the day Wednesday, filtering in moisture to raise minimum humidity levels to 40 to 55 percent. This pattern will generally persist through the rest of the week before an Arctic cold front passes this weekend. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...ANS AVIATION...CAD ####018003237#### FXUS64 KAMA 101731 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX Issued by National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1131 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2025 ...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1131 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2025 - The chance of impact weather over the next 7 days is very low. - Above normal temperatures will prevail, except Saturday night into Sunday behind a cold front. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Thursday night) Issued at 1131 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2025 Very low impact weather will prevail across the panhandles. Cooler afternoon temperatures remain on deck today in the wake of the overnight cold frontal passage, with highs likely to be near to just above normal today along with lingering high cloudiness. Tonight, surface high pressure behind the front will push southeastward across the area, with the afternoon high clouds decreasing and south to southwest winds returning. Another front will make its approach Thursday night, with well above normal temperatures making a quick return and winds turning further westerly ahead of the front. Forecast highs on Thursday have been nudged upward a couple of degrees from the NBM initialization using the NBM 75th percentile given the expected frontal placement and westerly low level winds. This front should be south of the panhandles by daybreak Friday. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through next Tuesday) Issued at 1131 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2025 Continued very low impact weather remains expected through the weekend and into early next week, with a strong cold front Saturday night bringing the main period of forecast uncertainty, centered on temperatures. High temperatures on Friday will be noticeably lower than those on Thursday, in the wake of the overnight frontal passage, but still should feature above normal values. Southerly winds and warmer afternoon temperatures likely return on Saturday, ahead of the aforementioned strong cold front that night. While the core of the cold air looks to remain safely east of the panhandles given the upper level flow, the spread amongst the various models and their temperature forecasts peaks during the Saturday night into Sunday period. There is fairly high confidence this will be the coldest stretch of the 7 day period, but confidence is low in just how cold it will get. The colder temperatures will be short-lived, with a return to above normal values likely for early next week. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1039 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2025 Scattered high clouds today will gradually thin overnight, becoming clear by Thursday morning. Breezy winds from the north will continue to gust to 15-20 kts for the next couple of hours, but will weaken and shift to southwest this evening. Areas of wind shear may occur overnight tonight out of the southwest in the 1-2 kft layer. Surface winds will become westerly Thursday morning. && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...99 LONG TERM....99 AVIATION...99 ####018003086#### FXUS64 KLUB 101732 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 1132 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1127 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2025 - Quiet weather, with well above-average temperatures Thursday through Saturday. - Cold front moves through Sunday, then warming again into next week. - Dry conditions expected. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Thursday) Issued at 1127 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2025 Little has changed with the synoptic pattern within our region over the past 24 hours, and benign weather will continue given ongoing dry and stable northwest flow aloft. Initially strong northeast breezes behind the earlier morning front will gradually subside through the rest of the day and become light this evening as surface high pressure settles over the region. Tonight, this ridge will position over central TX which will turn surface flow back southwesterly overnight, keeping lows relatively mild considering the post-frontal airmass. West-southwesterly surface winds will strengthen a bit more during the daytime on Thursday as a ripple in the flow aloft deepens a lee surface trough axis over eastern CO. The resulting downslope component along with modest midlevel height rises will result in a dramatically warmer day compared to today, with highs Thursday running about 20 degrees normal for this time of year as afternoon temperatures warm into the 70s across the region. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 1127 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2025 The extended weather pattern remains generally unchanged from the previous forecast. Despite breezy NE winds developing Friday west of relatively low pressure, the warm airmass aloft will remain in place ahead of a ridge over the Desert Southwest with heights ranging from 576-579 Dm. Corresponding high temperatures will mostly be in the mid 60s. A return of SW surface flow Saturday will bring even warmer temperatures into the 70s for many locations. A strong cold front will drop highs over 20 degrees on Sunday to near 50 with increased cloud cover. Southwest winds will return thereafter and above- average highs will return through what looks to be all the way through next week. An upper trough will move in from the west on Monday. Current model agreement remains poor as to it progression, however at time it appears that all of the associated moisture will remain off to the east. Thus a PoP-free forecast has been maintained. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1127 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2025 VFR will prevail at all TAF sites. Northeast winds will continue to weaken through the rest of this afternoon, then become light this evening before turning southwesterly by Thursday morning. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM....19 AVIATION...30 ####018008280#### FXUS65 KCYS 101733 AFDCYS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cheyenne WY 1033 AM MST Wed Dec 10 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - The long duration high wind event will resume mid Wednesday morning in Carbon and Albany county, then spread into the I-25 corridor during the afternoon. Strong winds will last into Thursday evening. - The wind prone areas along I-80 and I-25 can expect another round of wind gusts between 70 and 80 mph. A few gusts exceeding 80 mph are possible. - Cheyenne, Laramie, Rawlins, and Wheatland can expect wind gusts between 60 and 70 mph, but occasional lulls or breaks in the high winds are expected with this round. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 400 AM MST Wed Dec 10 2025 The area is currently enjoying a temporary lull in the high wind threat as a surface high settles in over the High Plains. GOES satellite imagery shows the upper level low responsible for yesterday's strong winds continuing to race eastward, now located near the Great Lakes. The next system is already moving into the Pacific northwest, with mid to high level cloud cover apparent streaming out ahead. Initially, the ridge over the southwest CONUS is expected to amplify slightly, which will pushed the stalled mid- level frontal boundary back to the northeast today. The surface high will also begin to retreat this morning. Pressure falls are expected to begin soon in the immediate lee of the Laramie Range, but will be slow to spread much further east than I-25 today. So, even as cross-barrier height and pressure gradients increase rapidly today, the high wind threat will be more localized to areas along and west of I-25 thanks to the position of the surface trough. Overall gradients are expected to climb rapidly today, peaking in the mid afternoon before leveling off or dropping off slightly overnight and then reaching another, potentially higher peak Thursday morning. Arlington to Bordeaux MSLP gradients reach their first maximum this afternoon at around 6-mb, and then climb to another max at 15z Thursday at nearly 8-mb. Compared to Tuesday's high wind event, 700-mb winds are about 5-8 knots weaker this afternoon through Thursday. Similarly, 700-mb height gradients are approximately 15-m weaker. However, local surface pressure gradients get close (but not quite) to where they were yesterday. Taken all together, this suggest that phase two of the wind event will likely fall slightly short of matching phase one, especially to the same spacial scale. Since we are still likely to observe mountain wave breaking events today and tomorrow, a few isolated observations matching or exceeding Tuesday's top gust of 87 mph cannot be ruled out, but overall expectations are a touch lower for maximum wind gusts today. While high winds will probably be quite consistent in the typical wind prone areas beginning this morning and lasting through Thursday evening, the adjacent zones may also see occasional lulls or breaks in the wind in between mountain waves, especially overnight. The surface trough will delineate the boundary between a warmer and cooler airmass today as well. Areas that get into the strong westerly winds this afternoon will probably warm at least 5 to 10F above those to the east of the surface trough, where southerly winds will prevail. We will need to watch for a few rain and snow showers this afternoon in our northern and eastern zones, supported by some overrunning warm air advection aloft as the front retreats to the northeast. Expect a very mild night tonight for much of the area as westerly winds keep the boundary layer mixed. This will lead into another mild day Thursday as winds spread further to the east. We'll be looking at widespread upper 50s to 60s for the High Plains, approximately 20F above average for this time of year. Another surface cold front is expected to approach the area Thursday evening on the leading edge of another high pressure riding down the eastern edge of the Rockies. This will bring another break in the high winds as the pressure gradient reverses across the barrier. We will also need to keep an eye on this for another round of banded precipitation associated with frontogenesis slipping into our area. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 248 AM MST Wed Dec 10 2025 The long term period will be dominated by continued northwest flow aloft. Expect to repeat the last few days once again on Friday, with the ridge amplifying slightly and nudging the stalled boundary off to the east. However, most models indicate that this next surface high pressure will be a bit stronger and more stubborn than the current one, so areas especially along and northeast of the North Platte River Valley may remain quite chilly on Friday and Saturday. There is a bit of uncertainty in where this boundary will set up, which implies quite a bit of uncertainty in high temperature forecasts over the High Plains for both days. These cold arctic air-masses often have more staying power than models indicate initially, so we will need to watch this to potentially bust Friday and Saturday's forecast highs by nearly 20F in the Wheatland to Scottsbluff corridor if the position of the front is off even just slightly. Unfortunately, it does look like the front will retreat just enough to allow for a strong pressure gradient over our wind prone areas once again. It is possible additional High Wind Warnings may be needed as soon as Friday evening. Current probabilities for Friday evening into Saturday morning are about 50 to 80% for the wind prone areas. This event, if realized, would likely be confined to the wind prone areas, and would be characterized as a much more typical high wind event for our area. Forecast headaches related to the stalled mid-level frontal boundary will finally leave the area towards the end of the weekend. Models are in good agreement showing a broad, strong upper level ridge shifting eastward Sunday into Monday. This will push the baroclinic zone quickly to our east, and usher in a more tranquil weather period. Temperatures are also expected to climb for the entire area during this period as cold air rapidly retreats. NAEFS mean 700-mb temperatures exceed the 99th percentile of climatology by Sunday, cresting around +6C over much of the area! Current forecasts are within a few degrees of daily record highs at Laramie and Cheyenne. Expect little to no chance for precipitation during this period. Slight chances for mountain snow return by Tuesday or Wednesday, but uncertainty is considerable at this lead time. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1033 AM MST Wed Dec 10 2025 Winds remaining southerly to southwest through the afternoon turning more westerly around 5-7pm for CYS and Nebraska terminals. For RWL and LAR southwest to westerly winds through the period with wind gusts of 40-50kts through the afternoon before falling off slightly tonight as gradient weaken with incoming high pressure. There will be temporary breaks or lulls in the strong surface winds, but expect to find significant WNW LLWS during periods when surface winds are light. Nebraska will get a break from the gusty winds today, but expect a few gusts around 20 to 25 knots. && .CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WY...High Wind Watch through Thursday afternoon for WYZ101. High Wind Warning until 5 PM MST Thursday for WYZ104-109-113- 115. High Wind Watch through Thursday afternoon for WYZ105. High Wind Warning until midnight MST Thursday night for WYZ106- 117. High Wind Warning until 5 PM MST Thursday for WYZ107-118. High Wind Warning until 5 AM MST Friday for WYZ110-116. Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM MST this morning for WYZ112-114. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...MN LONG TERM...MN AVIATION...WFOCYS ####018003850#### FXUS63 KGRR 101734 AFDGRR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 1234 PM EST Wed Dec 10 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Wintry Mix to All Snow this Morning - Snow Chances into the Weekend and Arctic Air && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 333 AM EST Wed Dec 10 2025 - Wintry Mix to All Snow this Morning Snow continues along and north of I-96 this morning with rain toward the I-94 corridor where temperatures are warmer. A dry slot is beginning to work into the area this morning with areas along and south of I-96 seeing lighter precipitation and dry breaks. This lull is expected to last until mid to late morning as the deformation zone shifts south bringing with it another burst of snow with rates around a quarter of an inch per hour. An additional 1 to 3 inches is expected along the I-96 corridor with 2 to 4 inches north of M-46. As the deformation axis shifts south of the area this afternoon lake effect snow will pick up. An additional inch or two is possible in Ottawa, Allegan, and Van Buren Counties with an inch or less elsewhere along the lakeshore into Thursday morning. - Snow Chances into the Weekend and Arctic Air Within the northwest flow we'll see additional clipper systems move through, however western Michigan will be on the edge of accumulating snow with these systems Thursday night into Friday and Saturday night into Sunday. Therefore accumulations are light. We'll need to see a northward trend in these systems for higher amounts. With these clippers Arctic air will move in Friday through weekended. This will aid in lake effect snow showers impacting the area. 925mb temperatures will be in the dendritic growth zone and the inversion will limit the depth of showers limiting amounts. Highs are only expected to be in the teens this weekend with lows in the single digits. Any snow with these temperatures will cause slick conditions. Warmer temperatures move in next week. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1237 AM EST Wed Dec 10 2025 The frontal band of snow showers will continue to move to the southeast as the day progresses. Widespread IFR cigs and vsbys in snow showers will continue into the afternoon. The cold front is moving in from the northwest which will allow for dry northwesterly flow to overtake the region this afternoon. Cigs and vsbys will improve this afternoon beginning from thE NW to the SE from MKG and GRR then followed by LAN, AZO, BTL and then lastly JXN. This should occur beginning from around 18Z until 22Z. Ceilings and visibilities will improve behind the front with a period of MVFR between 22Z until 03Z. After 03Z VFR conditions will then infiltrate as skies improve from NW to SE. There is the potential for post frontal snow showers this evening which could bring MVFR vsbys and cigs to MKG. There also is the potential for some MVFR cigs tomorrow between 12Z and 18Z. && .MARINE... Issued at 333 AM EST Wed Dec 10 2025 Southwest gales are winding down but northwest gales will build from north to south this morning and afternoon. Winds drop to small craft advisory levels this evening. Wave heights of 8 to 12 feet are expected into tonight. Winds and waves will gradually subside on Thursday. Friday night into Saturday will bring another period of hazardous winds and waves as a cold front moves through the Great Lakes Region. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for MIZ037>040-043>046-050>052-056>059. MARINE...Gale Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for LMZ844>849. && $$ DISCUSSION...RAH AVIATION...Ceru/RAH MARINE...RAH ####018003741#### FXUS64 KBRO 101734 AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Brownsville TX 1134 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1123 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2025 -Rain free and pleasant conditions continue through Thursday, with a warming trend into the weekend -Low to medium (25 to 40 percent) rain chances arrive Sunday into Monday along a stalling frontal boundary && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1123 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2025 A persistent trough of low pressure with a series of winter systems works through the Great Lakes and New England into early next week. Closer to home, a weak shortwave trough gradually moves east across Texas this weekend, followed by a brief 500mb ridge of high pressure, and then a stronger shortwave settles into the Southern Plains by Tuesday. At the surface, weak low pressure and a meandering frontal boundary will bring drier air from west to east through the afternoon and maybe some fog overnight, otherwise, relatively comfortable conditions. The front lifts north as a warm front on Friday, then drops back down on Sunday before stalling or washing out. Temperatures are generally expected to be above normal, with near normal highs Thursday and Monday, and potentially record highs at BRO on Friday. A stronger front may be on the horizon just beyond the forecast period, although, current probabilities are at 60-70 percent for above normal temperatures Dec 17 through Dec 23. The chance of rain remains low (less than 20 percent) and mainly along the coast Friday into Sunday morning, then increases to a low to medium (25 to 40 percent) chance of showers or isolated thunderstorms Sunday afternoon before diminishing again on Monday. The trend has continued to run drier with each forecast package this week, nudging confidence lower in any widespread beneficial rain. The 8-14 day CPC outlook is leaning toward above normal precipitation through Dec 23, at around 33-50 percent. Patchy fog may be possible in the early morning hours into next week, with limited winds and multiple boundaries. Favorable beach conditions are expected into the weekend, with an increase in life-threatening rip currents Sunday into early next week. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1123 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2025 VFR conditions are expected to generally prevail into tonight, with MVFR to brief IFR ceilings and patchy fog possible late tonight into early tomorrow morning. Winds remain light and variable near MFE and west, with breezy southerly winds at HRL and BRO, expected to all turn light and northerly by early Thursday. && .MARINE... Issued at 1123 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2025 A couple of weak frontal boundaries and generally lighter onshore winds will maintain favorable marine conditions into the weekend. A cold front arrives or stalls across the waters on Sunday, increasing the chance of rain into next week, and builds seas briefly into Monday with Small Craft Caution level winds. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 81 59 78 63 / 0 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 83 54 76 59 / 0 0 0 0 MCALLEN 84 55 76 62 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 84 53 76 57 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 75 65 73 67 / 0 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 81 61 76 62 / 0 0 0 0 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...56-Hallman LONG TERM....56-Hallman AVIATION...56-Hallman