####018008312#### FXUS63 KJKL 032130 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 430 PM EST Wed Dec 3 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Cold and mainly dry weather persists through Thursday. - Wintry precipitation is possible late Thursday night into Friday, with the greatest chances along and south of the Mtn Pkwy where the Friday morning commute could be impacted. - The pattern is expected to remain active through the weekend and perhaps the middle of next week as well, though long term forecast confidence in details remains low. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday morning) Issued at 420 PM EST WED DEC 3 2025 Clearing has occurred in the southern half to two thirds of the area as high pressure at the surface and aloft shifts across eastern KY. This clearing should continue spreading north this evening. This should allow for temperatures to drop down into the 20s areawide this evening into the overnight. This evening through Thursday, the upper level low and trough should rotate into Ontario and Quebec and across the Great lakes and OH Valley to the Northeast and mid Atlantic. The associated cold front will precede it and sweep across the eastern Great Lakes to the Northeast and mid Atlantic to Carolinas/northern portions of the Gulf Coast states. After a relative minimum in cloud cover, mid and upper level moisture should increase overnight. Some patchy flurries or light snow is possible near and north of I-64 and especially Fleming County from this late. The cold front should cross eastern KY Thursday morning to early Thursday afternoon, accompanied by some mid and even a few low level clouds in the north and a few flurries or patchy light snow may occur early on Thursday near and north of I-64. Sfc high pressure pressure briefly building in from the Midwest/Mid MS Valley vicinity to the southern Great Lakes and Mid Atlantic. Meanwhile, further south and west, the shortwave trough/upper low initially near the Four Corners region will move into sections of the Plains. In advance of it, a sfc low should take shape over the northwestern to northern Gulf with an inverted trough developing north into the TN Valley and Lower OH Valley ahead of the shortwave trough moving from the Plains toward the Ozarks and MS Valley. Thursday night through Friday morning, the shortwave trough that will be nearing the Ozarks and mid and Lower MS Valley late Thursday will progress into the Lower OH Valley as well as the TN Valley and Southeast on Thursday night, shifting east of eastern Ky Friday morning. An additional shortwave or two should also approach from the west on Friday morning. Meanwhile, the sfc low over the northern Gulf on Thursday evening should track to near the mouth of the MS River on Thursday night and toward northwest FL through Friday morning. The inverted trough should remain north of this system and shift into southeastern KY Thursday night and Friday. There has generally been a trend among the convective allowing guidance such as the 12Z and 18Z HRRR as well as 15Z RAP in addition to the 18Z NAM and 12Z GEM and 12Z ECMWF for measurable precipitation late Thursday night into Friday morning to be near and south of the Mtn Parkway if not more confined to along and south of the Hal Rogers Parkway to KY 80 corridor. The NBM pops may be too far north and pops may eventually need a tighter gradient in the southern half of the area as the 00Z ECMWF had been further north than the 12Z ECMWF and the NBM is more heavily weighted toward the EC guidance. The thermal profile through 12Z or 7 AM EST Friday per LREF forecast soundings become marginal and near the 0C isotherm in the lowest few thousand feet though wet bulbing or significant lift could result in slightly colder profiles. This suggests a rain versus snow forecast with higher elevations more favored for more or all snow and a mix with or change to rain in valleys in the south for late Thursday night. If surface temperatures were to lag some freezing rain is not out of the question. Overall, quite a bit of uncertainty remains, but if the more recent higher resolution guidance trends in the HRRR and RAP, etc. hold, a portion of the area may need to be considered for a winter weather headline as wintry precipitation perhaps mostly or all snow may impact the Friday morning commute in some areas, particularly the southern two tiers of counties form McCreary to Pike and south. .LONG TERM...(Friday afternoon through Wednesday) Issued at 315 PM EST WED DEC 3 2025 The forecast period begins with a surface low-pressure system tracking northeastward from the Tennessee Valley, traversing the CWA. This system straddles the short-term and extended forecast periods. We have opted to segment the discussion based on the phasing transition from wintry precipitation to all rain. Consequently, this discussion begins Friday afternoon, where warm frontal passage and diurnal warming will support precipitation primarily as rain. The system is forecast to exit the region by late Saturday morning. However, a brief period of wintry mix remains plausible on the back side of the departing system as cold-air advection returns to the region. Surface high pressure builds into the area following the systems departure. Nevertheless, upper-level southwesterly flow will maintain relatively mild temperatures for Saturday. An upper-level trough stalled over the Hudson Bay area and an impinging shortwave trough moving off the Rocky Mountains will interact beginning Sunday, driving the weather pattern from Sunday through late Monday. The first of these perturbations is associated with a dry cold front extending from the Hudson Bay trough. A key feature is the zone of baroclinicity that the secondary low-pressure system, originating from the Rockies, can track along. This secondary system is more moisture-rich and should yield higher probabilities for rain and snow beginning early Sunday morning and persisting through late Monday morning. Precipitation type (p-type) will be temperature-driven, with daytime temperatures generally supporting rain, while overnight temperatures will favor a wintry mix or snow. Model confidence is low regarding thermal profiles and the precise track of the low-pressure center. Therefore, little confidence is placed in deterministic snowfall totals. Behind this system, surface high pressure will rebuild across the area for Tuesday, but model trends indicate another system approaching by the end of the forecast period. The period will be characterized by multiple synoptic disturbances traversing the area, bringing an array of precipitation types followed by interludes of high pressure. Temperatures are generally forecast to remain below average for this time of year. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon) ISSUED AT 140 PM EST WED DEC 3 2025 With high pressure and upper ridging passing through the region, low clouds were mixing out nearer to the TN and VA borders at issuance time, but MVFR lingered at the TAFS sites. Through the next 2 to 5 hours, the low clouds should continue to mix out/erode to the north and west with improvements through the MVFR range and into the VFR range for all the TAF sites. VFR should then prevail in most areas until about 03Z when clouds may begin to spread back into the area as a cold front approaches and a general trend toward MVFR for all TAF sites that continues into the last 6 hours of the period. The more southern TAF sites, KLOZ and KSME, and areas nearer to the VA border and TN border may largely remain or return to VFR during the last 6 hours of the period. Light west to southwest winds will prevail during the first 18 hours of the period and then a gradual shift to the west and then northwest at around 5KT to end the period. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...JP LONG TERM...VORST AVIATION...JP ####018006635#### FXUS63 KOAX 032130 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 330 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Temperatures fall this evening into the overnight and winds diminish. Most see frigid lows ranging from 0 to -10F by Thursday morning. Wind chills of -10 to -20F are expected north of Interstate 80 Thursday morning as wind speeds increase again. - Dry and cold conditions expected for Thursday. Highs warm to the low to mid 30s for Friday. - Cold temperatures return Saturday and Sunday. A 20-40% chance of snow exists on Saturday. Highs warm to the upper 30s to mid 40s Monday and Tuesday && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 330 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025 .SHORT TERM.../TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/ Sfc cold front has now pushed well southeast of the forecast area this afternoon. Strong H8 cold air advection has resulted in temperatures falling throughout the day with many areas already having reached their highs. Strong subsidence from the trailing sfc high currently in the Dakotas has kept pesky stratus across far western and northwest areas too, while sunshine is observed across the rest of the area. Winds have been rather breezy with most seeing north northwest winds of 15 to 20 mph and gusts of 25 to 30 mph. Looking aloft, RAP 19z objective analysis at H5 shows a longwave trof across Ontario extending southeast into northern Minnesota, leaving much of the Northern Plains in northwesterly flow. Despite most locations seeing sun this afternoon, temperatures will continue to fall. Winds weaken late this afternoon into the evening as the sfc high moves over the forecast area. The pesky stratus should erode too resulting in clearing skies. The light winds and clear skies will result in pretty good radiational cooling, so have lowered minimum temperatures from NBM guidance a degree or two for tonight. Most areas will see frigid lows in the 0 to -10F range, and records may potentially be broken at Lincoln (-3F record low in 1902). Winds speeds will pick up by Thursday morning resulting in wind chill values of -10 to -20F primarily north of Interstate 80. Those who plan to venture outside tomorrow morning should plan to bundle up. Expect a mix of clouds and sun Thursday with dry conditions. The cold air will linger, especially across far eastern Nebraska into western Iowa where highs in the mid teens to low 20s are forecast. Slightly warmer highs are expected across far northwest portions of our service area (low 30s) as H8 warm air advection returns given the baroclinic zone lifts east northeast. Winds will also be breezy from the southwest as the sfc pressure gradient tightens again. Lows Thursday night will still be chilly, with most areas seeing low teens to low 20s. .LONG TERM.../FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/ H5 northwest flow continues on Friday as a weak shortwave trof rounding the base of more potent longwave over northern Manitoba into western Ontario ejects southeast. Current model guidance shows the best Q-vector convergence and implied forcing for ascent primarily north and east of the area. Moisture appears limited too, so have kept latest NBM solution which keeps the area dry. With the aforementioned H8 baroclinic zone moving northeast on Thursday, Friday should be warmer with most seeing highs in the low to mid 30s and maybe pushing 40F across our far western fringes. The parent H5 longwave trof should help induce cyclogenesis across northern Ontario, and the sfc cold front from said feature should extend well southeast into the Northern Plains Friday. The front should be at our doorstep by Friday night, crossing the area early Saturday. With more H8 cold air advection funneling in, expect temperatures to dip on Saturday with highs in the mid 20s to low 30s north of Interstate 80, and mid 30s near the Nebraska/Kansas border. A shortwave will eject from the Wyoming/Montana area toward the Nebraska Panhandle/northeast Colorado on Saturday morning. Ensemble and deterministic guidance keys in on a developing sfc low with the feature, but quite a bit of spread exists with where the sfc low will track. Notably, the EPS ensemble shows the most spread with the sfc low track, potentially taking the low into eastern Nebraska, while the majority of GEFS and CMC ensembles keep the sfc low well west of the area. Regardless of the low track, H7-H5 Q-vector convergence and implied lift should overspread a good chunk of the forecast area on Saturday. The mid level wave and sfc feature should have some moisture to work with resulting in a 20 to 40% chance for snow across the forecast area. Deterministic and ensemble guidance shows varying locations in where the snow band will develop at this time as expected, likely within the deformation zone of said low. Regarding snowfall amounts, latest LREF suite suggests most areas seeing less than a half inch at best, primarily across northeast Nebraska. Details regarding this disturbance track and snowfall amounts are likely to change in the coming days, so please stay tuned to the forecast for updates. Chilly temperatures return for Sunday as we'll be behind the front, with most seeing highs in the mid teens to mid 20s. Lows Saturday night and Sunday night will be frigid in the single digits to low teens. Temperatures are expected to warm again to the upper 30s to mid 40s by Monday and Tuesday as 1000-500mb thicknesses increase and overspread much of the Central Plains. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1149 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025 MVFR and VFR ceilings are observed at the start of the TAF period. Satellite imagery is showing gradual clearing at KOMA, while stratus lingers across KOFK and KLNK. MVFR ceilings may linger at KOFK and KLNK through at least 00 and 03z, respectively. 20 to 25kt wind gusts from the north northwest will continue into the afternoon hours, largely subsiding by 00z. Winds turn to the south southwest overnight, becoming gusty again especially at KOFK by 16z. Finally, a few hi-res models try to develop fog/MVFR ceilings across all three terminals overnight, but confidence remains too low for mention in TAF at this time. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Castillo AVIATION...Castillo