####018008693#### FXUS63 KLSX 151750 AFDLSX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service St Louis MO 1250 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Very little changes have been to the temperature forecast, with near average temperatures and heat index values between 95 and 105 degrees expected through the weekend, and potentially early next week. - Scattered afternoon pop-up showers and thunderstorms are expected each afternoon today through Friday, with the best chances across the Ozarks today and tomorrow, and Illinois Friday. Bursts of heavy rain and lightning are the most likely hazards with these storms. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 245 AM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026 While dry conditions are in place early this morning, attention will soon turn to the slow approach of rich moisture and a mid-level vorticity maximum from the south over the next few days, as this will bring increasing chances for afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Water vapor imagery indicates that this feature is currently located across central Mississippi and very slowly drifting to the northwest, with a plume of moisture and other smaller impulses ahead of it in southern Missouri. As the day progresses, both of these features will nudge further north, and we expect to see a round of scattered showers and weak thunderstorms developing in the afternoon in the Ozarks and far southwest Illinois as heating erodes a weakening capping inversion. With PWAT values approaching 1.8 to 2.0 inches in these areas by that time, the strongest cores may produce rain rates on the order of 1 to 2 inches per hour, which may cause localized flooding issues in areas with saturated soils from recent rain. Meanwhile, these storms will be developing within a regime of relatively weak wind shear, but there is just enough easterly mid level flow (25-30 kt) that cells will likely have at least some modest forward motion. This also means that storms will be moving from east to west, which is somewhat unusual for our area. We also don't expect severe storms, but can't rule out some wind gusts in the 30-40 mph range here and there. Convective activity should wane a bit after sunset as we lose afternoon heating, although a smattering of showers may persist through the night. During the day though, the aforementioned vort max is expected to continue moving northward and directly overhead, along with the core of very rich moisture. As such, another round of afternoon showers and thunderstorms is expected, likely with greater areal coverage than today. Still, given the slow northward progression of the upper low, the highest concentration of showers and thunderstorms is still expected to occur across the Ozarks. Meanwhile, very similar threats will exist with tomorrow's storms, including bursts of heavy rain, lightning, and occasional modest downburst winds. Again, the threat of flooding appears low overall, but storm motions may be slightly slower Thursday, and there are a few locations in the Ozarks that are particularly sensitive to heavy rain rates at this time and may experience localized minor flooding impacts. Once again, the focus of this activity is expected to be in the afternoon, but a few of the more persistent thunderstorms may lingering the evening and overnight. Otherwise, while very humid conditions are expected in the Ozarks and southwest Illinois today due to dewpoints in the low to mid 70s (and locally higher), and this humidity is likely to spread into additional areas Thursday. Fortunately, temperatures are only expected to top out in the upper 80s to low 90s, roughly average for this time of year, which should keep heat index values in check. Still, you can expect to see heat index values approaching 100 degrees in our warmest areas this afternoon. This is something that will need to be monitored today, because if we do reach 100 degree heat index values today, we may be in danger of reaching the 4-day Heat Advisory threshold of 100+ degree heat index values as temperatures are likely to rise slightly through the weekend. Given that we are now in mid-July and have already see widespread heat, we will refrain from issuing any headlines for now, and see how today's temperatures verify first. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 245 AM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026 By Friday, the subtle impulse partially responsible for Thursday's shower activity is expected to slowly pivot to the northeast, carrying the focus of renewed showers and thunderstorms with it. While the exact motion of such a small feature is somewhat uncertain at this time range, the greatest rain chances are expected to shift into Illinois, although we may see some activity in far eastern Missouri near the Mississippi River as well. At the same time, shower coverage is likely to wane across the Ozarks and central Missouri due to a combination of increasing subsidence and drier westerly flow. In any case, a similar round of scattered afternoon pulse-type showers featuring brief heavy rain rates, lightning, and occasional gusty winds appears most likely. Over the weekend and into early next week, ensemble guidance continues to indicate that the upper flow pattern will gradually amplify, with a buildup of the longwave ride across the intermountain west, and the development of a longwave trough across the Great Lakes and eastern CONUS. While this process will begin Saturday and Sunday with a digging weak shortwave trough, this feature may be too far removed from our area for its associated backdoor cold front to impact our area much, although there are still some members that do bring such a feature into our northern areas late Saturday, along with another round of showers and thunderstorms. However, this is still very much in the minority of solutions, and we have little confidence that we will see much in the way of precipitation over the weekend. Instead, given the higher probability that cold fronts will wash out before they arrive over the weekend, confidence is increasing that temperatures will, at a minimum, remain near seasonal averages, and may even continue to rise by a degree or two each day. We should see a slight decrease in dewpoints after Friday in western areas, but without a notable cold front to push near-surface moisture out of the area, high humidity is also expected to persist through the weekend, with heat index values nudging slightly upwards into the 100 to 105 degree territory. Between Monday and Tuesday though, there is an increasing signal in long-range ensemble guidance that a deeper trough will dig into the Great Lakes, sending a more noteworthy cold front south and through the area. Not only may this renew chances for showers and thunderstorms, but this would also likely put and end to any notable heat concerns by mid-week. There is still a high degree of ensemble variance, though, particularly on the timing of the initial cold front on Monday. A slower solution would likely yield another warm day Monday (potentially the warmest of the next 7 days), and add another day to a string of 100 to 105 degree heat index values, possibly even 5 days in a row in some places. Again, temperatures and heat index values will be evaluated today and tomorrow to determine if any duration-driven headlines are needed. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1244 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026 VFR flight conditions are expected to prevail through the evening. Scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon into this evening, mainly over the eastern Ozarks. A few could possibly develop as far north as the Missouri River, but this is not likely. The strongest storms will be capable of reducing the visibility to 2SM and below in locally heavy downpours. Some gusty winds to 35-40kts will also be possible with the strongest storms. Convection will diminish this evening and the overnight hours are expected to be dry. Some patchy fog reducing the visibility to 3SM or below is possible late tonight, again mostly over the eastern Ozarks. Additional thunderstorm development is possible Friday afternoon. && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...19 LONG TERM...19 AVIATION...Carney ####018005993#### FXUS62 KMFL 151750 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 150 PM EDT Wed Jul 15 2026 ...New SHORT TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 147 PM EDT Wed Jul 15 2026 - Heat indices between 105-110 possible through the evening hours. Take appropriate precautions during extended periods outdoors. - Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms expected this evening favoring interior and western areas of South Florida. - Some of the storms could become strong to marginally severe with strong wind gusts, frequent lightning, heavy downpours, and small hail. && .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Thursday) Issued at 147 PM EDT Wed Jul 15 2026 Few changes to the overall pattern through the short term period as an area of weak high pressure remains in place over the Gulf, in tandem with ridging aloft, supporting light southeasterly winds and some subsidence aloft. Additionally, we are still seeing the impacts associated with the presence of Saharan dust over the region, which is helping limit convective potential across the area. As a result, atmospheric profiles are looking fairly dry across the area, with PWATs in the 1.4-1.6 inch range, well below the 25th percentile for this time of year. This setup will help produce isolated to scattered convective activity later this afternoon along sea breeze boundary collisions, with coverage maximized over the interior and southwest FL. Some of that activity could drift eastward towards the East Coast late in the evening, but chances of that occurring remain low (~30% PoPs). Any storms that develop will be slow-moving in nature, and could bring strong to severe gusty winds, frequent lightning and small hail. The forecast on Thursday looks to remain fairly similar, although some of the high res models do try to develop some additional activity along the interior and southeast metro areas in the evening. This will come as a result of more southerly- southeasterly winds bringing additional moisture over the area as the aforementioned area of high pressure shifts. The heat will remain a concern through the period, with high temperatures forecast to reach the mid to upper 90s later this afternoon and heat indices in the 105-110 range. A Heat Advisory remains in effect for the urban areas in Miami-Dade, Broward, Palm Beach and Collier counties til later this evening, and we will likely need another one tomorrow. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 410 AM EDT Wed Jul 15 2026 Models show overall high pressure dominating the region, with the west Atl mid-lvl ridge extending into the SE CONUS and a sfc ridge just E of the area. Prevailing weak pressure gradients will result in generally light to moderate winds through Friday, with sea breezes developing and push inland each afternoon. The SAL should linger over the area through Friday. However, latest long range solutions are hinting at an earlier recovery of the airmass as a trough develops across the E CONUS and weakening the high pressure by Friday. This also helps in enhancing a little the overall southerly flow Friday afternoon, resulting in moisture filtering into SoFlo and POPs/Wx jumping back into the 40-60% range. The overall synoptic scenario won't change much through early next week, with Saturday so far being the day with the highest moisture intrusion. Latest NBM came with up to 70% POPs/scattered to numerous thunderstorms for interior and eastern SoFlo Saturday afternoon. Sea breezes should develop each day and drive the development of deeper convection. In terms of temperatures, highs through the long term will hit the mid-upper 90s each day. Heat advisory potential will be explored each day. Limit strenuous outdoor activities and take action when you see symptoms of heat exhaustion and heat stroke. For more on what you can do to prepare for and mitigate heat illness, visit ready.gov/heat. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 130 PM EDT Wed Jul 15 2026 Generally VFR conditions expected for all terminals this TAF cycle. Easterly to southeasterly flow will prevail along the East coast, while a Gulf breeze will develop and impact KAPF, resulting in westerly flow this afternoon. A few isolated storms could develop interior, but confidence regarding impacts to the sites remains fairly low at this time; nevertheless, short fuse TEMPOs could be needed in the evening if anything drifts close to the sites. Light and variable again overnight. && .MARINE... Issued at 410 AM EDT Wed Jul 15 2026 A moderate southeasterly breeze will continue across most of the local waters through the end of the work week. The exception to this will be across the Gulf waters where winds will become west southwest each afternoon as the Gulf breeze develops. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible across the local waters each day. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 80 95 81 95 / 10 20 10 50 West Kendall 77 96 78 96 / 10 20 10 60 Opa-Locka 79 97 81 97 / 10 20 10 50 Homestead 79 95 80 95 / 10 20 0 40 Fort Lauderdale 81 95 81 95 / 10 10 10 50 N Ft Lauderdale 80 95 81 95 / 10 10 10 50 Pembroke Pines 80 98 82 97 / 10 20 10 50 West Palm Beach 78 95 79 95 / 10 10 10 60 Boca Raton 79 93 80 93 / 10 10 10 50 Naples 78 94 80 93 / 10 0 10 20 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for FLZ068>070-072-074- 168-172-173. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...ATV LONG TERM....17 AVIATION...ATV ####018010172#### FXUS65 KABQ 151750 AAB AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 1150 AM MDT Wed Jul 15 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1136 AM MDT Wed Jul 15 2026 - Widespread storms each day this week will focus over western New Mexico, with lesser coverage across the east. Small hail, gusty outflow winds, and localized flash flooding may occur with stronger storms during the afternoon and evening hours. - There is a low risk of flash flooding over the Ruidoso area burn scars through Thursday, then at least a moderate risk from Friday through the weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Thursday) Issued at 211 AM MDT Wed Jul 15 2026 Water vapor imagery this morning shows a quite active synoptic pattern over the western CONUS. The main feature is the commanding H5 ridge over the central plains as well as the secondary high that continues to develop over the northern Rockies in Wyoming and Montana. There has been a steady stream of moisture clockwise around these circulations, with the deepest moisture being advected meridionally from northern Mexico into Utah and Idaho. Meanwhile, an easterly wave over west Texas has begun to produce robust convection over the Hill Country of Texas tonight. This convection will gradually make its way northwestward, but the subsidence out ahead of it will help to limit convective activity across the eastern third of New Mexico today. Storms today will once again focus along and west of the central mountain chain, although coverage will be higher compared to Tuesday since the shortwave skirting northern NM will be stronger and moisture content will be slightly higher as well. Localized pockets of 1"+ are likely today, with the best chance along the west slopes of mtn ranges where storms will tend to regenerate. These storms will cluster together in west-central NM during the evening hours as rainfall intensity trends lower. While an instance or two of flash flooding is to be expected, widespread impacts are unlikely and much of this rainfall will be welcomed across central and western NM. The center of the easterly wave will work its way into far west Texas on Thursday. Dry air will rotate into the circulation from the northeast, which will translate to a downtick in coverage in central NM. Western NM will be very similar to the previous days with widespread storms developing over the high terrain, moving into the lower elevations from the mid-afternoon onwards. An instance of flash flooding or two remains on the table given the increasingly efficient rainfall rates, but the soil will take a while to saturate and become vulnerable to flash flooding. Soil moisture percentile rankings show that much of western and northern NM is below the 10th percentile for mid-July, with the northwest corner of the state below the 1st percentile. The extensive cloud coverage and falling 500 mb heights will combine to make Thursday the coolest day of the week in many areas, with highs struggling to reach 90F, even in lower elevation locations like Albuquerque, Farmington, and Roswell. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 211 AM MDT Wed Jul 15 2026 The easterly wave will stall over far west Texas on Friday, eventually filling and dissipating. At the same time, the secondary ridge currently over Wyoming will shift southward over the Four Corners and strengthen. Moisture will continue coming up from the south, with the deepest sub-tropical moisture over western NM. Despite the southerly shift in the high, storm motions should trend even faster late week into the weekend over the southern half of New Mexico, with slower and erratic motions near the Colorado border. With repeated rounds of storms, soils will slowly saturate, including over recent burn scars where the flash flood risk will be greatest. Ensemble guidance shows that the center of the H5 high will migrate southeast towards the TX Panhandle early next week, then potentially setting up right over central NM mid to late week. This will continue to favor at least scattered storms each day next week, with the highest rain chances in western NM where moisture will be greatest (PWATs 120-150% of normal). && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1136 AM MDT Wed Jul 15 2026 SHRA/TS developing near the high terrain late this morning will move south/southwest at 10-20KT into nearby highlands and valleys thru late this afternoon. Convective outflows may produce wind gusts up to 40KT from the stronger cells. An AWW (Aiport Weather Warning) will be issued for the ABQ Sunport as canyon winds crank up later today. Localized MVFR vsbys are also possible with brief heavy rainfall. Favored areas thru sunset will be along and west of the central mt chain. Storms will then dissipate to showers thru late this evening. There is a 20-30% chance of MVFR cigs at KROW by sunrise Friday as an area of low stratus advects northwest from west TX. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 211 AM MDT Wed Jul 15 2026 Critical fire weather conditions are not expected the next 7 days. An active monsoon pattern will bring scattered to widespread showers to much of central and northern NM each of the next several days, with the greatest coverage over western NM and the lowest coverage in the eastern plains. Storms will generally occur during the afternoon and evening hours, but showers with a few embedded storms may linger into the overnight hours across western NM. Storms today through Friday will generally move from northeast to southwest at 5 to 15 mph, becoming east to west late week into the weekend. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 94 63 90 62 / 20 50 20 50 Dulce........................... 89 49 86 48 / 70 70 60 50 Cuba............................ 85 56 82 55 / 50 30 30 50 Gallup.......................... 89 54 84 52 / 60 60 40 60 El Morro........................ 84 55 79 54 / 60 80 40 50 Grants.......................... 88 56 83 55 / 50 60 40 50 Quemado......................... 84 57 79 55 / 60 80 60 40 Magdalena....................... 84 62 81 61 / 30 50 40 20 Datil........................... 81 58 76 57 / 50 70 60 30 Reserve......................... 87 56 83 52 / 60 60 60 30 Glenwood........................ 90 58 87 54 / 60 40 60 30 Chama........................... 81 48 78 47 / 70 60 70 50 Los Alamos...................... 82 62 81 61 / 60 50 30 40 Pecos........................... 80 54 81 54 / 80 40 50 20 Cerro/Questa.................... 81 55 79 54 / 60 60 70 40 Red River....................... 78 43 75 42 / 80 60 70 40 Angel Fire...................... 75 41 75 40 / 80 50 70 40 Taos............................ 83 52 81 50 / 60 40 50 30 Mora............................ 76 51 77 51 / 90 40 60 30 Espanola........................ 90 60 88 60 / 50 40 30 30 Santa Fe........................ 82 60 82 60 / 60 40 40 20 Santa Fe Airport................ 86 58 85 58 / 40 40 30 20 Albuquerque Foothills........... 90 66 88 66 / 40 40 40 30 Albuquerque Heights............. 91 63 89 63 / 30 40 30 30 Albuquerque Valley.............. 93 63 91 63 / 30 30 30 30 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 92 66 90 66 / 30 40 20 30 Belen........................... 93 62 91 62 / 20 30 20 20 Bernalillo...................... 93 65 91 64 / 40 40 30 30 Bosque Farms.................... 92 60 90 60 / 30 30 30 20 Corrales........................ 93 65 91 65 / 40 40 20 30 Los Lunas....................... 92 62 90 62 / 20 30 20 20 Placitas........................ 88 65 87 65 / 50 40 30 30 Rio Rancho...................... 92 65 90 65 / 40 40 20 30 Socorro......................... 95 68 92 67 / 10 30 5 10 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 84 59 82 59 / 50 40 50 30 Tijeras......................... 87 57 86 57 / 50 40 40 30 Edgewood........................ 86 54 86 54 / 50 30 30 20 Moriarty/Estancia............... 86 52 86 52 / 50 20 30 10 Clines Corners.................. 80 54 81 54 / 50 30 20 10 Mountainair..................... 85 56 85 56 / 50 20 30 20 Gran Quivira.................... 83 57 82 57 / 40 20 30 10 Carrizozo....................... 86 62 85 61 / 20 20 30 10 Ruidoso......................... 78 55 78 54 / 20 10 40 10 Capulin......................... 78 53 80 53 / 20 5 10 10 Raton........................... 83 54 84 53 / 20 10 5 10 Springer........................ 83 56 85 55 / 30 5 5 10 Las Vegas....................... 79 54 80 54 / 60 30 20 10 Clayton......................... 86 61 87 60 / 5 5 0 5 Roy............................. 81 59 83 58 / 10 5 0 10 Conchas......................... 90 63 91 63 / 5 5 0 10 Santa Rosa...................... 85 61 85 61 / 20 5 0 10 Tucumcari....................... 90 63 91 63 / 5 5 0 5 Clovis.......................... 88 62 87 62 / 5 5 0 10 Portales........................ 89 62 88 62 / 5 5 0 10 Fort Sumner..................... 89 63 89 63 / 5 10 0 10 Roswell......................... 90 66 89 65 / 5 10 5 20 Picacho......................... 85 60 85 59 / 5 10 5 10 Elk............................. 83 55 83 55 / 5 10 10 10 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...16 LONG TERM....16 AVIATION...42 ####018008610#### FXUS66 KMTR 151751 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 1051 AM PDT Wed Jul 15 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 101 PM PDT Tue Jul 14 2026 - Moderate HeatRisk continues across the interior Wednesday - Breezy onshore winds through Thursday - Elevated fire weather conditions through Thursday && .UPDATE... Issued at 752 AM PDT Wed Jul 15 2026 Coastal stratus is hugging the Golden Gate, indicating signs of a returning marine layer! Thus, temperatures are cooler than 24 hours ago by a few degrees near the coast and into the coastal adjacent valleys. However, this afternoon will be equally as warm as yesterday across the interior with temperatures reaching into the 90s to around 103 deg F. Hot, dry, and breezy onshore winds will result in elevated fire weather conditions through Thursday, especially away from the coastal influences. Remember: - Stay hydrated and drink plenty of fluids. - Wear lightweight, light-colored clothing. - Reduce time spent outdoors or stay in the shade. - Never leave people or pets unattended in vehicles. - Use sunscreen if going to the coast or the pool. RGass && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 1139 PM PDT Tue Jul 14 2026 (Tonight through Thursday) It was hot Tuesday. San Francisco hit 76, Santa Rosa 97, Livermore 102, and San Jose 95. I made the mistake of baking bread in the afternoon and my house in Monterey got to 81 degrees. The highs were about 5 degrees warmer than forecast, driven by strong high pressure to the east and totally clear skies. The 03Z WPC Surface Analysis shows a mesoscale 1019 mb high over northern Nevada that was stronger than expected. The 6-member PGE WRF ensemble (POMMS EPS) predicted the SFO-WMC gradient would be between +3 and +4 mb at 04Z, and it was actually observed at -3.8 mb. In other words the weather models missed this mesoscale high pressure over Nevada. This helped keep the air dry today and discouraged the marine layer from reforming. Temperatures are going to remain relatively warm overnight, but not quite as warm as last night thanks to the clear skies and enhanced radiational cooling. Similar high temperatures are expected Wednesday afternoon with slightly stronger winds in the afternoon as a trough starts to approach the coast. The overnight temperatures will cool much more effectively Wednesday night. With the hot temperatures, low humidity, and moderate onshore winds, fire weather conditions will be elevated Wednesday and Thursday. A few stations are currently reporting red flag conditions across the North and East Bay. This will continue over the next couple days. Wednesday is hot and dry with moderate winds. Thursday will be a little cooler, but the winds will be a bit stronger. The elevated fire weather will continue through the nights as well. The lack of marine layer and strong thermal belting will keep higher elevations warm with poor humidity recoveries. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 1139 PM PDT Tue Jul 14 2026 (Thursday night through next Tuesday) A cooling trend starts Thursday as a low pressure trough approaches the coast. There has been a slight change from yesterday however. It now looks like the Rocky Mountain 500 mb high will remain strong enough to force the incoming low north into the Pacific Northwest. The associated trough will still bring us cooler temperatures, but maybe not as drastic or quick as we thought yesterday. Temperatures will be about 5 degrees above normal Thursday, near normal Friday, and 5 degrees cooler than normal over the weekend and into early next week. The marine layer will also start to reform during this cooling trend, with low clouds likely to return to the typical gloomy areas by Friday morning. The large scale mid level flow will stay out of the SW between the fairly stationary Eastern Pacific trough and central US ridge. This keeps the conveyer belt open for surges of tropical moisture, particularly if a recurving tropical cyclone drags some of the deep tropical moisture into the subtropics. We now have a tropical cyclone in the NE Pacific near 15N, 110W named TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E. This system is expected to become a hurricane by Thursday and continue NW through the weekend. Depending on the track and the ultimate strength of this tropical cyclone, it has the potential to bring moisture far enough north to be sucked into the conveyer belt and delivered to the Bay Area. The uncertainty is pretty high with tropical cyclone tracks, but it looks likely that there will be some moisture arriving Sunday or Monday from this system. The amount of moisture is still up in the air. The ECMWF ensemble mean has dropped from 1.0" yesterday to 0.8" today (90th percentile to 75th percentile), but the spread between members remains quite large. Why do we care about this? Elevated moisture surges bring the potential for high based thunderstorms and dry lightning that can spark wildfires. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1042 AM PDT Wed Jul 15 2026 VFR conditions prevail across all terminals. High confidence in VFR through the afternoon with low to moderate confidence on IFR ceilings returning to the coastal terminals of HAF, MRY, and SNS tonight. Diurnal winds will prevail. Vicinity of SFO...Currently VFR with westerly flow. High confidence in VFR and diurnal winds prevailing through the TAF period. Wind gusts are anticipated to reach 30 knots with occasional gust to 35 knots possible between 23Z and 03Z this afternoon. SFO Bridge Approach...Low probability (20-30% chance) of low clouds below FL045 developing across the San Mateo Bridge Approach tonight. Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR conditions prevail with light winds over MRY and northwesterly winds over SNS. Moderate confidence on IFR ceilings returning to the terminals tonight. && .MARINE... (Today through Monday) Issued at 424 AM PDT Wed Jul 15 2026 Widespread hazardous conditions for small craft are expected into Friday across the inner and outer waters due to fresh to strong northwesterly breezes. Gale force gusts are expected along the coastal jet regions of Point Reyes and Point Sur. The afternoon sea breeze will create hazardous conditions for small craft within the bays. Moderate seas will prevail with intermittent rough seas in the outer waters through Friday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 101 PM PDT Tue Jul 14 2026 The warm temperatures we have had the past several days and continued warm weather has resulted in fuels rapidly drying this week. ERC charts are expected to exceed the 97th percentile across the Mid Coast to Mendocino zone and get close to the 97th percentile across the Central Coast. Fire weather concerns will remain elevated this afternoon through Thursday due to near critically dry conditions, gusty onshore winds, and very dry fuel conditions. This may result in additional fire starts particularly across the interior and higher elevations. Unsettled weather is possible next weekend with returning potential for dry thunderstorms and gusty, erratic winds. RGass/Flynn && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 AM PDT Thursday for CAZ006-506- 508. Heat Advisory until 10 PM PDT this evening for CAZ516-517. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT this evening for Mry Bay-SF Bay N of Bay Bridge. Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 3 PM PDT Thursday for Mry Bay. Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT Thursday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Thursday for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm. Gale Warning from 9 AM to 3 PM PDT Thursday for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm. && $$ SHORT TERM...RGass/Flynn LONG TERM....Flynn AVIATION...CW/Sarment MARINE...CW/Sarment Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea ####018004064#### FXUS62 KCAE 151754 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 154 PM EDT Wed Jul 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Temperatures trending warmer to end the week above normal with increasing chances of rain over the weekend. Aviation discussion updated for 18z TAF. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1. Generally low chances of rain through Friday favoring the CSRA with a warming trend expected across the area. - 2. Increased chances of rain over the weekend with highest chances on Sunday into Monday. && .DISCUSSION... Key Message 1: Generally low chances of rain through Friday favoring the CSRA with a warming trend expected across the area. Much drier air noted across North Carolina on WV imagery and seen in satellite derived PWATs with values at or below 1 inch over much of NC. A sharp gradient to values to over 2 inches noted over South Carolina especially south of the I-26 corridor. Some convection already ongoing in the CSRA along a weak low level convergence zone but really struggling beneath the upper ridge. Expect scattered non severe convection into the evening. Slow storm movement with high PWATs could yield very heavy rainfall in stronger convection. Similar expectations for tomorrow regarding convection although coverage may be even less as some of the drier air to our north works southward. Temperatures will be warming on Thursday and Friday as the upper ridge axis shifts southeastward from the upper Midwest to the Carolinas. NAEFS shows 850mb temperatures above the 99th percentile both days while the ECMWF also highlights anomalously high max temps to end the week. Expect high temperatures to push back into the mid and upper 90s with Friday being the warmest day. While deep mixing should result in some drier air mixing down to the surface, heat indices are expected to rise back above 100 degrees and could reach 105 by Friday. Key Message 2: Increased chances of rain over the weekend with highest chances on Sunday into Monday. Ensemble guidance suggests the upper ridge will retrograde and become re-established over the western CONUS by Saturday with an upper weakness left behind across the deep south and northeastern Gulf. This will allow for troughing across the OH Valley into Mid-Atlantic and New England bringing shortwave energy into the region interacting with above normal PWATs resulting in an increase in chances of convection late weekend into early next week. There may be a slightly better chance of severe weather on Sunday as well with some increased wind shear and upper forcing from shortwave energy combining with diurnal instability. Also of note, NHC has added a 20% area across the northeastern Gulf for possible tropical development in the next 7 days. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Scattered showers and storms around Augusta, otherwise VFR conditions likely through the period. The slow moving, southward sinking boundary continues to shift through our area causing a few showers and storms along the Savannah River westward this afternoon. This may bring a few storms into AGS and DNL this afternoon, with enough confidence in terminal impacts for a prob30. The remaining TAF sites will likely remain convection free. Drier air will move in overnight with clearing skies and light winds. Some morning stratus-fog is possible Thursday morning but confidence is quite low with a lack of model agreement. This pattern continues Thursday, but with slightly lower rain chances at AGS and DNL. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...The threat for restrictions eases for the end of the week into the upcoming weekend as conditions begin to dry out. Restrictions from showers and thunderstorms return this weekend. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. GA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...23 AVIATION...42 ####018004619#### FXUS64 KFWD 151754 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 1254 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers and thunderstorms (50-70% chance) are expected today across Central Texas with more isolated coverage (15-30%) across North Texas. - Isolated showers and thunderstorms (15-30% chance) remain possible Thursday and Friday afternoon and evening. - Drier and hotter conditions are expected this weekend into next week with temperatures returning into the 90s and lower-100s. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Thursday) Issued at 1243 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026 A weak upper level disturbance remains in place over much of Texas today, bringing another day of scattered showers and thunderstorms. Best chances for rain (50-70%) will be along and south of the US-84 corridor, where moisture and lift are maximized. Slow, erratic storm motions will keep the threat for localized heavy rain and flash flooding. Chances for showers and storms decreases northward, becoming isolated to widely scattered (below 40%) north of the I-20 corridor, as subsidence moves in and brings some drier air along. After sunset, precipitation chances diminish yet further, with only isolated showers or storms (15-30%) south of I-20 and west of I-35. The best ascent associated with the upper level disturbance tracks west tomorrow, with higher heights building in from the east. Although moisture remains abundant, the lack of forcing will limit shower and storm coverage to an isolated chance (15-30%) for much of the area. West of I-35 and south of I-20, closest to the upper level low, those chances increase to 40-50%. As with the last several days, the main hazard with these storms will be isolated heavy rain and flash flooding. Where clouds and showers dominate, temperatures remain on the cooler side, with highs across Central Texas in the low to mid-80s. Across North Texas, where skies will be clearer, highs will run in the low 90s. By tomorrow, as shower activity diminishes and skies clear, Central and North Texas will see highs in the upper 80s to low 90s. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 1243 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026 The upper level low continues to track west through the end of the week, moving into the southern Rockies and southern High Plains. Enough lingering moisture and lift will be around to keep isolated showers and storms in the forecast for areas generally west of I-35 on Friday. Enough clouds and showers will be around to give the region one last day of near to below normal temperatures, before more typical summer conditions return. High pressure builds in overhead through the weekend and into next week, introducing some drier air, sunny skies, and warmer temperatures. Highs this weekend will be near-normal, in the mid-to-upper 90s. Early next week, temperatures rise above normal, with upper 90s to low 100s expected. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1243 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026 Shower and thunderstorm development has been robust over Central Texas this morning, and a cluster of stronger storms is moving north toward the D10 airspace. As a result, have added VCTS through 01z, when convective activity should drop off. KACT will continue to carry a mention of TSRA through the afternoon as well, with heavy rain producing periods of MVFR to LIFR conditions. The overnight period will see VFR conditions prevail, although MVFR cigs are expected to develop between 14z and 16z tomorrow. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 74 89 75 93 / 10 30 10 20 Waco 72 87 74 91 / 20 40 10 10 Paris 71 88 73 91 / 10 10 10 20 Denton 72 89 73 93 / 10 30 10 10 McKinney 73 88 74 91 / 10 30 10 10 Dallas 75 90 76 94 / 10 30 10 20 Terrell 72 90 73 92 / 10 30 20 20 Corsicana 73 91 75 93 / 10 30 10 20 Temple 72 86 73 91 / 30 50 20 10 Mineral Wells 70 87 72 91 / 20 50 20 20 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Bealo LONG TERM....Bealo AVIATION...Bealo